What does 2023 look like?

Yo La Tengo

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Nov 21, 2005
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EDIT: irate grumpy-old-man-post moved to appropriate thread.

In case you missed it, the strobe lights are an embarrassment.
 
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chrisfont9

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Apparently after one game there actually already is a bunch of sportswriters that have determined that the "problems" from last year are the same as this year and the Sox suck.
I think there's two very clear things to actually pick up from the opener yesterday: Ort and Brasier are both terrible. I don't think I'll shock anyone by saying that and whatever the XFip or Bfip or anything from the last years claim their "true" talent is.... they're just garbage. But unlike last year, within a month we 100% are certain that there is talent to replace them that will be better. However... if after Whitlock, Bello get activated to the ML roster and those two somehow continue to defy all logic and still are sticking on the 26, then all bets are off.
The Globe can't seem to help themselves, putting everyone on task to write something that sounds profound about opening day. Unfortunately they are just winding up the FIRE EVERYONE!!! crowd. At least Speier today wrote about how Sale's stuff might be the bigger story than his command his first time out.
 

RS2004foreever

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Sale was at 97 in the first inning, and 94 IIRC in the third. He struck out 5 of the first 6 batters. The only minor defense I would offer is in the third the second hit was a swinging bunt down the third base line. Had that play been made there would have been two outs and a runner at second. That would have meant Matteo's fielder's choice would have ended the third with no runs scored. Still Sale gave up 3 really hard hit home runs - though they were definately aided by the wind blowing out.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Massive grain of small sample sized salt…. But a few things everyone expected:
-the offense will be very good.
-the bullpen is significantly improved with Ort, Brasier as the two who likely would be bad. They likely will get dropped or bumped further down the hierarchy.
-starting pitching is the big weak point

Again…. Yes aware it’s two games. Just saying that those 3 points were expected from almost everyone here.
The offense will continue to be good as Casas and others who haven’t been productive as much will join in on the fun.
Bullpen will be better after Bello and Whitlock move up.
Rotation is still the big question mark…. But I’m bullish on the team. More than my prediction of 84 wins now
 

BaseballJones

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Three games in....

The good:

- 2-1 record (yay, not in last place!)
- team slash line: .327/.395/.564/.959, 160 ops+
- five guys with ops over 1.000
- 9 runs in each of the first three games
- Jansen, Schreiber, Winckowski, Martin: 9.0 ip, 7 h, 0 er, 4 bb, 0.00 era, 1.22 whip

The bad:

- three starters - all sucked - combined for: 11.1 ip, 18 h, 15 er, 7 hr, 7 bb, 11.91 era, 2.21 whip
- Ort, Brasier, Kelly, Bleir: 6.2 ip, 13 h, 8 er, 4 bb, 10.80 era, 2.55 whip
- Orioles stole 10 bases without a single caught stealing
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Three games in....

The good:

- 2-1 record (yay, not in last place!)
- team slash line: .327/.395/.564/.959, 160 ops+
- five guys with ops over 1.000
- 9 runs in each of the first three games
- Jansen, Schreiber, Winckowski, Martin: 9.0 ip, 7 h, 0 er, 4 bb, 0.00 era, 1.22 whip

The bad:

- three starters - all sucked - combined for: 11.1 ip, 18 h, 15 er, 7 hr, 7 bb, 11.91 era, 2.21 whip
- Ort, Brasier, Kelly, Bleir: 6.2 ip, 13 h, 8 er, 4 bb, 10.80 era, 2.55 whip
- Orioles stole 10 bases without a single caught stealing
I still would have pushed Houck out for another inning. I know his 5th inning correlates with our expectations but he needs to be pushed a little to test that. His first 4 innings looked great.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Jul 23, 2005
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Three games in....

The good:

- 2-1 record (yay, not in last place!)
- team slash line: .327/.395/.564/.959, 160 ops+
- five guys with ops over 1.000
- 9 runs in each of the first three games
- Jansen, Schreiber, Winckowski, Martin: 9.0 ip, 7 h, 0 er, 4 bb, 0.00 era, 1.22 whip

The bad:

- three starters - all sucked - combined for: 11.1 ip, 18 h, 15 er, 7 hr, 7 bb, 11.91 era, 2.21 whip
- Ort, Brasier, Kelly, Bleir: 6.2 ip, 13 h, 8 er, 4 bb, 10.80 era, 2.55 whip
- Orioles stole 10 bases without a single caught stealing
I always look to assess pitchers beyond the box score a little early on in the season and look for guys who seem different. Well so far in 2023 that person is Winckowski. His stuff seems much much firmer. Both the sinker and slider have more velocity and he's ditched his 4 seam. All in all, he looks much more like a legitimate high leverage pitcher than at any point last year.
 

Sin Duda

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He was not good in the fifth. Bringing him back out for another inning would have been malpractice.
And this is where we the fans can't come close to understanding the manager's decision (I just had a vision of Jimy as I wrote that).

Cora: looks like you lost your command that inning. How you feel?" Houck: "Yeah, I lost the snap on the breaking pitches; my arm's tired". Cora: "Good outing we can build on. We'll get you some runs and hopefully a W! Hit the showers."
 

walt in maryland

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Sale was at 97 in the first inning, and 94 IIRC in the third. He struck out 5 of the first 6 batters. The only minor defense I would offer is in the third the second hit was a swinging bunt down the third base line. Had that play been made there would have been two outs and a runner at second. That would have meant Matteo's fielder's choice would have ended the third with no runs scored. Still Sale gave up 3 really hard hit home runs - though they were definately aided by the wind blowing out.
Mateo's FC SHOULD have been a double play, which also would have ended the inning
 

bosockboy

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Jul 15, 2005
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Three games in....

The good:

- 2-1 record (yay, not in last place!)
- team slash line: .327/.395/.564/.959, 160 ops+
- five guys with ops over 1.000
- 9 runs in each of the first three games
- Jansen, Schreiber, Winckowski, Martin: 9.0 ip, 7 h, 0 er, 4 bb, 0.00 era, 1.22 whip

The bad:

- three starters - all sucked - combined for: 11.1 ip, 18 h, 15 er, 7 hr, 7 bb, 11.91 era, 2.21 whip
- Ort, Brasier, Kelly, Bleir: 6.2 ip, 13 h, 8 er, 4 bb, 10.80 era, 2.55 whip
- Orioles stole 10 bases without a single caught stealing
Goes with the record but in the bad-a lazy fly ball caught from 1-2.
 

Benj4ever

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Nov 21, 2022
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I still would have pushed Houck out for another inning. I know his 5th inning correlates with our expectations but he needs to be pushed a little to test that. His first 4 innings looked great.
Absolutely! I mean, I would have had him on a short leash, but he can't grow without challenges.
 

Benj4ever

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Nov 21, 2022
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Goes with the record but in the bad-a lazy fly ball caught from 1-2.
Yeah, but that ground--rule double cost us a run, too (the 2nd run scores if we don't have the bad luck of the ball bouncing over the short fence). These things even themselves out.
 

Benj4ever

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Nov 21, 2022
386
Three games in....

The good:

- 2-1 record (yay, not in last place!)
- team slash line: .327/.395/.564/.959, 160 ops+
- five guys with ops over 1.000
- 9 runs in each of the first three games
- Jansen, Schreiber, Winckowski, Martin: 9.0 ip, 7 h, 0 er, 4 bb, 0.00 era, 1.22 whip

The bad:

- three starters - all sucked - combined for: 11.1 ip, 18 h, 15 er, 7 hr, 7 bb, 11.91 era, 2.21 whip
- Ort, Brasier, Kelly, Bleir: 6.2 ip, 13 h, 8 er, 4 bb, 10.80 era, 2.55 whip
- Orioles stole 10 bases without a single caught stealing
Yeah. I really don't like the disengagement rule. I mean, sure you want to speed things up by making the pitchers get the ball and throw it, like they did 50 years ago. But back then the games were plenty short without messing with the fundamental strategy of holding runners on.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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And this is where we the fans can't come close to understanding the manager's decision (I just had a vision of Jimy as I wrote that).

Cora: looks like you lost your command that inning. How you feel?" Houck: "Yeah, I lost the snap on the breaking pitches; my arm's tired". Cora: "Good outing we can build on. We'll get you some runs and hopefully a W! Hit the showers."
I’m getting flashbacks to Grady and Pedro. You’re my guy, go back out and win!
 

joe dokes

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Jul 18, 2005
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Three games in....

The good:


The bad:

- three starters - all sucked - combined for: 11.1 ip, 18 h, 15 er, 7 hr, 7 bb, 11.91 era, 2.21 whip
- Ort, Brasier, Kelly, Bleir: 6.2 ip, 13 h, 8 er, 4 bb, 10.80 era, 2.55 whip
- Orioles stole 10 bases without a single caught stealing
I'm giving Bleier a pass. I thought he got terribly squeezed, and he can't really compensate with his stuff.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Geez… it’s game 3.
Counts the same as game 162. He was done. Our section had already discussed his issue with second time thru order, if he had come back he would be seeing MORE guys a third time. That just hasn’t worked for Houck (or most guys these days). Check the game thread or ask anyone in the park who was paying attention. We were all craning our necks towards the bullpen trying to figure out who was coming in next. Looked like 46 or 48. There is no 48, and we were pleased to see Schreiber getting ready.
 

TheYellowDart5

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Well if there's one major takeaway from the opening series that's likely to hold through the season, it's that the back of this bullpen is very bad. That's true for a lot of MLB but it's pretty clear early on that no one outside of the Jansen/Martin/Schreiber trio should see high-leverage innings, Winckowski potentially excepted if he keeps this up. Brasier continues to defy reason by being on this roster, Ort is a JAG, Bleier is a huge risk given his lack of swing-and-miss stuff and vulnerability to righties. Kelly's changeup is plus and potentially plus-plus, so maybe there's a lane for him there. But even with Houck and Crawford heading back to the bullpen at some point, this group feels at least an arm short already.
 

joe dokes

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Well if there's one major takeaway from the opening series that's likely to hold through the season, it's that the back of this bullpen is very bad. That's true for a lot of MLB but it's pretty clear early on that no one outside of the Jansen/Martin/Schreiber trio should see high-leverage innings, Winckowski potentially excepted if he keeps this up. Brasier continues to defy reason by being on this roster, Ort is a JAG, Bleier is a huge risk given his lack of swing-and-miss stuff and vulnerability to righties. Kelly's changeup is plus and potentially plus-plus, so maybe there's a lane for him there. But even with Houck and Crawford heading back to the bullpen at some point, this group feels at least an arm short already.
Rodriguez might be one of those arms, but we might not see him for a while.
 

Cassvt2023

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Well if there's one major takeaway from the opening series that's likely to hold through the season, it's that the back of this bullpen is very bad. That's true for a lot of MLB but it's pretty clear early on that no one outside of the Jansen/Martin/Schreiber trio should see high-leverage innings, Winckowski potentially excepted if he keeps this up. Brasier continues to defy reason by being on this roster, Ort is a JAG, Bleier is a huge risk given his lack of swing-and-miss stuff and vulnerability to righties. Kelly's changeup is plus and potentially plus-plus, so maybe there's a lane for him there. But even with Houck and Crawford heading back to the bullpen at some point, this group feels at least an arm short already.
Yes, it potentially does feel an arm short right now. There are a couple ways they could go with this. #1 as you mentioned is for Crawford to head there when Whitlock is back in the rotation in about a week, then have Crawford there when Bello is back a few days after that. It's also possible that Pivetta will head there when Paxton is ready to go, depending on how his first couple starts go. The guy i'd ultimately like to see in the bullpen by June/early July is Mata. The guy has a live arm, got to AAA during his rehab last year, and looked like his stuff plays in ST. The bullpen always has a way of working itself out as the season progresses. As long as Brasier and Ort are simply early season band aids and not pitching a bunch of meaningful innings, they'll be ok.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Counts the same as game 162. He was done. Our section had already discussed his issue with second time thru order, if he had come back he would be seeing MORE guys a third time. That just hasn’t worked for Houck (or most guys these days). Check the game thread or ask anyone in the park who was paying attention. We were all craning our necks towards the bullpen trying to figure out who was coming in next. Looked like 46 or 48. There is no 48, and we were pleased to see Schreiber getting ready.
I get it but there's also the potential to find out if Houck can actually stick around as a 6 inning 95 pitch starter. It's not the playoffs... there's a high margin of error the first two months of the season to find some stuff out. Not trying to push Houck right now is akin to not letting Casas face LHP. Yeah... I know there's some evidence to suggest that Houck can't make it past 4 innings and that Casas can't hit lefties, but they need a larger sample size to actually KNOW these things and they're not just noise. I was watching the game and agree that Houck was looking sloppy but they added some runs on. There's virtually zero harm in having him start the inning and then having a quick hook ready already warmed up in the pen.
 

TheYellowDart5

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I get it but there's also the potential to find out if Houck can actually stick around as a 6 inning 95 pitch starter. It's not the playoffs... there's a high margin of error the first two months of the season to find some stuff out. Not trying to push Houck right now is akin to not letting Casas face LHP. Yeah... I know there's some evidence to suggest that Houck can't make it past 4 innings and that Casas can't hit lefties, but they need a larger sample size to actually KNOW these things and they're not just noise. I was watching the game and agree that Houck was looking sloppy but they added some runs on. There's virtually zero harm in having him start the inning and then having a quick hook ready already warmed up in the pen.
I have a suspicion that Houck will get plenty of starts regardless of the plan for him given how injury-prone Sale, Kluber and Paxton have been in the recent past; does anyone see everyone in that trio making 25+ starts? I would love to see Houck become a two-inning guy out of the bullpen who can destroy tough righties, but maybe that can be Pivetta instead? I figure they'll keep Houck relatively stretched out one way or the other, either as a multi-inning reliever or getting regular starts in Worcester. Beyond Winckowski and Crawford, there isn't much starter depth left depending on how Mata, Walter and Murphy pitch in Triple-A.
 

pk1627

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I love that the early concern is in the pitching (where it should be). All I heard the entire off-season was “do you recognize anyone in the lineup (save Devers who is never going to see a strike)?”

Right. There’s an offense that can compete. Plenty of need for the young guys to come through on the mound.
 

chrisfont9

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does anyone see everyone in that trio making 25+ starts?
Sale and Paxton, yes. They were slowly breaking down for years and are now apparently fixed, so it would stand to reason that they have a couple good years (like a lot of TJ guys) before the odds start working against them again. Kluber, based on his age, wear and tear, recent years... 25 is maybe a bit high. And obviously anything can happen, though last year it did, to everyone, in unlikely ways, so fingers crossed this year karma lays off us.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I have a suspicion that Houck will get plenty of starts regardless of the plan for him given how injury-prone Sale, Kluber and Paxton have been in the recent past; does anyone see everyone in that trio making 25+ starts?
Considering Paxton is on the IL, it seems a safe bet to say that all three won't make 25+ starts. I think Kluber has a more than fair chance of making 25+ starts since he did so last season. I feel like Sale is good for it too.
 

8slim

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I get it but there's also the potential to find out if Houck can actually stick around as a 6 inning 95 pitch starter. It's not the playoffs... there's a high margin of error the first two months of the season to find some stuff out. Not trying to push Houck right now is akin to not letting Casas face LHP. Yeah... I know there's some evidence to suggest that Houck can't make it past 4 innings and that Casas can't hit lefties, but they need a larger sample size to actually KNOW these things and they're not just noise. I was watching the game and agree that Houck was looking sloppy but they added some runs on. There's virtually zero harm in having him start the inning and then having a quick hook ready already warmed up in the pen.
Houck had such a brutal spring. I can see Cora thinking that 5 innings/3 runs was a good enough effort out of the gate. If he hadn't given up two bombs in the 5th, maybe you let him start the 6th on a short leash. He's going to have chances to go beyond 5, but I have zero problem with pulling him in that circumstance.
 

TheYellowDart5

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Sale and Paxton, yes. They were slowly breaking down for years and are now apparently fixed, so it would stand to reason that they have a couple good years (like a lot of TJ guys) before the odds start working against them again. Kluber, based on his age, wear and tear, recent years... 25 is maybe a bit high. And obviously anything can happen, though last year it did, to everyone, in unlikely ways, so fingers crossed this year karma lays off us.
The irony of this is that Kluber is the only pitcher in that trio to make 25+ starts in the last three seasons. But either way, I think it's a fair bet that one of the three will miss a good chunk of time (or in Paxton's case continue to miss time) and that Houck will be one of the main guys tasked with replacing those innings/starts.
 

chrisfont9

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The irony of this is that Kluber is the only pitcher in that trio to make 25+ starts in the last three seasons. But either way, I think it's a fair bet that one of the three will miss a good chunk of time (or in Paxton's case continue to miss time) and that Houck will be one of the main guys tasked with replacing those innings/starts.
Yeah, 31 last year. Which is probably why the Rays let him walk.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Last few seasons there was a “Fun with Small Sample Size” threads. I don’t know how to start and then move posts into it but there should be one. More threads are good and the last few (other than steals/running ‘23) have mega-threaded
 

Cassvt2023

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The Irony will be that after all the bashing Pivetta has taken on SOSH, tonight he has the chance to notch the best start for a Sox pitcher tonight as the #5 starter one time thru the rotation...it'll probably happen, as the whole start to this season has been weird....
 

pjheff

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Yes, it potentially does feel an arm short right now. There are a couple ways they could go with this. #1 as you mentioned is for Crawford to head there when Whitlock is back in the rotation in about a week, then have Crawford there when Bello is back a few days after that.
That’s a lot to ask of a young pitcher like Crawford.
 

chrisfont9

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The Irony will be that after all the bashing Pivetta has taken on SOSH, tonight he has the chance to notch the best start for a Sox pitcher tonight as the #5 starter one time thru the rotation...it'll probably happen, as the whole start to this season has been weird....
Has the wind turned around? I gather the weather has been all over the place to date.
 

RobertS975

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The Sox charter flight to Detroit this evening, Delta 8878, is scheduled to depart from Logan shortly. For some reason, the flight is not destined for the huge Delta hub in Detroit, DTW, but is headed for the airport (KPTK) in Pontiac MI, a smaller airport not served by commercial carriers. I don't know the area at all to know what advantages that airport offers.
 

54thMA

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The Sox charter flight to Detroit this evening, Delta 8878, is scheduled to depart from Logan shortly. For some reason, the flight is not destined for the huge Delta hub in Detroit, DTW, but is headed for the airport (KPTK) in Pontiac MI, a smaller airport not served by commercial carriers. I don't know the area at all to know what advantages that airport offers.
Well, you know, when you're on a tight budget and every dime counts, these things will happen.
 

lexrageorge

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The Sox charter flight to Detroit this evening, Delta 8878, is scheduled to depart from Logan shortly. For some reason, the flight is not destined for the huge Delta hub in Detroit, DTW, but is headed for the airport (KPTK) in Pontiac MI, a smaller airport not served by commercial carriers. I don't know the area at all to know what advantages that airport offers.
Well, you know, when you're on a tight budget and every dime counts, these things will happen.
Probably has better accommodation for private flights and less subject to ATC delays.
 

Looch

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Maybe each of the players are taking their own separate charter planes to the smaller airport, at least in Shank’s dreams.
 

LogansDad

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Maybe there's a nicer golf course there for them to get some stress relief on the off day. Bats suddenly playing like they are up their own assholes as the pitching finally had a couple good games is not fun.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Maybe there's a nicer golf course there for them to get some stress relief on the off day. Bats suddenly playing like they are up their own assholes as the pitching finally had a couple good games is not fun.
Seriously though…. Pivetta wasn’t bad. I don’t expect more out of him than 6 innings and 3 runs- almost there!!!! But so far this is feeling like a hair of the dog from last year…. Starters are good- offense can’t score. Offense is destroying- starters allow 8 runs in 3 innings.
When both the rotation and the offense click you just know the bullpen will implode…. And oh yeah -dejavu- help is on the way!!!!! Just have to hang tight until the reinforcements show up!!!