@Big Papi's Mango Salsa
- This thread seems as good as any for this conversation. I definitely don't feel like having it in one of the dedicated Bloom-bashing threads.
Anecdotally - I think when you're breaking in so many young players, it's a good idea to have some stability around them. Obviously this isn't quantifiable, and I admit that.
From a more analytical standpoint, if I assume we're around .500 anyway with what we have, (just for the sake of optimism I'll call that 82-80), and we had Abreu instead of Turner, Bassitt instead of Kluber and Segura (Arroyo on the bench, Refsnyder gone), I think you're closer to what Steamer projects and those three are about a 4.2 win upgrade (if I added correctly) and you're at 86 - 78 and in (I believe) a one game playoff with TB for the last wild card spot based on last year's standings.
Also, Abreu is 2 years younger than Turner and Bassitt is 3 years younger than Kluber, so I'd bet it to be more likely that those guys are able to outperform Tuner and Kluber than lets say Martin, Rodriguez, Brasier and the like are of out-performing a myriad of guys from the Tampa approach.
How much would Abreu and Bassitt hamstring us in 2025, I suppose that depends on how they age. But at least assuming baseball savant data is predictive, the data for Abreu and Bassitt both look considerably better than for Turner and Kluber, respectively, so I'm betting on the two younger players with better "profiles" for lack of a better term.
*Either way, I'll respectfully agree to let you - or anyone else - have the last word and not respond as I realize that there is nothing in my last two posts specifically about Matt Barnes or Bleier, even though it was a discussion of bullpen spending for how we got here, it's not the point of the thread and I don't want to further annoy anyone thinking these posts are about those two players.
Define stability? Turner & Kluber are known great clubhouse guys who can be positive role models on younger players. I don't really know about Abreu/Bassitt, but Segura is apparently a known bad teammate:
I think that's a link that says stuff like that? Some day I will get around to subscribing...
Plus, if things go great with them, they could re-sign them for '25, or anyone else rather than being locked in down the road.
But let's get to your hypothetical...
All salaries Spotrac Luxury Tax #s for '23:
Min Salary #1 ($720k)
Min Salary #2 ($720k)
Min Salary #3 ($720k)
So we're increasing luxury tax payroll by about $18m this year (& making us a tax team...unless we're also getting rid of Jansen in this hypothetical, but I think you wanted to keep him?). This also pre-supposes that guys like Abreu & Segura would take the exact same salary to play in a state with a state income tax rather than in ones without, & that Abreu would be cool with DHing.
So what does this do for us baseball-wise? Well...it severely limits our flexibility insomuch as we now have 3 outfielders + Arroyo + Hernandez who is starting at SS, & Abreu/Casas can only play 1B or DH.
But let's pretend things like positional flexibility aren't important...
Going to use ZIPS since it's the one with 3-year projections, which will be important later & so using 1 system for consistency. Also, for the record, my understanding is that things like those Baseball Savant bars are factored into the ZIPS projections, along with many other things, so they should be baked in.
ZIPS fWAR in for '23
ZIPS fWAR out for '23
Turner 3.2 (ZIPS loves him much more than any other projection, so take with grain of salt)
Refsnyder 1.3 (a bit higher than other projections)
Martin 0.4 (ZIPS likes him less than every other projection)
One can project out a positive fWAR impact from the minimum salary players...but of course the issue with that is without Martin/Joely/Brasier, those players who would move up a notch like Mills/Ort/Kelly/Sherriff or whoever, are no longer the deep depth & are now needing depth themselves.
Regardless, though, even if you deeply discount Turner here, you appear to be looking at spending an extra $18m for an extra win or two this season - even disregarding positional flexibility & the locker room.
& then in '25, you are locked in to Bassitt + Abreu at a total of $40.5m for a projected 2 fWAR (1.3 + 0.7). So you are going into the luxury tax now to improve your team by a maximum of 2 games, for the privilege of paying $20m/fWAR in '25. & it doesn't matter if Bassitt/Abreu are better than Turner/Kluber in '25, because we aren't obligated to overpay Turner/Kluber in '25.