What does 2023 look like?

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I am guessing Alfaro was already promised one of those spots, Tapia too maybe? We will see soon.

Promised which spots? The spot(s) created by moving Story (and maybe Mondesi) to the 60-day IL? I would hope they haven't promised anyone those spots and instead use them to address needs when the time comes. There's certainly no reason to add Alfaro or Tapia to the 40-man before the end of spring training, and even then it only should happen if they're needed on the 26-man roster. Assuming everyone stays relatively healthy through the spring, barring an incredible exhibition season performance, I expect both of those guys to begin the season off the 40-man roster and in Worcester.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

IIRC, Alfaro can opt out June 1 if he’s not on the major league roster.

 

[jon abbey]

Promised which spots? The spot(s) created by moving Story (and maybe Mondesi) to the 60-day IL? I would hope they haven't promised anyone those spots and instead use them to address needs when the time comes. There's certainly no reason to add Alfaro or Tapia to the 40-man before the end of spring training, and even then it only should happen if they're needed on the 26-man roster. Assuming everyone stays relatively healthy through the spring, barring an incredible exhibition season performance, I expect both of those guys to begin the season off the 40-man roster and in Worcester.

Yeah quite possibly, I'm just guessing that it's possible that the reason that one or both agreed to sign minor league deals to begin with is they were promised 40 man spots in spring training, I have no idea obviously.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I believe the Sox are done making moves, especially for position players. The two positions that seem to lack the most depth in case of injury appear to be CF and SS. In center, aside from Duvall and Kiki, there is really no one else you'd want to see there. This is where Tapia would probably step in, and possibly Duran or Niko. At short, it's Kiki, Mondesi, and Arroyo (not crazy about this beyond in a pinch). Once again, Niko could play there some if there is an injury and/or Mondesi isn't ready.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I believe the Sox are done making moves, especially for position players. The two positions that seem to lack the most depth in case of injury appear to be CF and SS. In center, aside from Duvall and Kiki, there is really no one else you'd want to see there. This is where Tapia would probably step in, and possibly Duran or Niko. At short, it's Kiki, Mondesi, and Arroyo (not crazy about this beyond in a pinch). Once again, Niko could play there some if there is an injury and/or Mondesi isn't ready.

Wait... sorry... Niko who???

 

[Coachster]

Wait... sorry... Niko who???

Niko Goodrum, our ace in the hole.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/goodrni01.shtml

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Niko Goodrum, our ace in the hole.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/goodrni01.shtml

Probably don't need to say that I hope to high holy heaven and hell that it never ever comes to that.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Probably don't need to say that I hope to high holy heaven and hell that it never ever comes to that.

I feel the same SLT, but if Kiki and Duvall were both to be out of commission, what are the alternatives?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I feel the same SLT, but if Kiki and Duvall were both to be out of commission, what are the alternatives?

Verdugo?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I feel the same SLT, but if Kiki and Duvall were both to be out of commission, what are the alternatives?

Are there a lot of teams with super palatable alternatives when their top two CF are injured at the same time?

The answer is Duran or Verdugo in CF (Refsnyder in RF). The answer at SS if Kike (and I guess Mondesi) is out is Arroyo with Valdez or Hamilton (or Wong) getting a call up to play 2B. Goodrum is, at best, a plan D or E at either spot.

 

[JBJ_HOF]

Interesting comments at the end

View: https://twitter.com/TalkinBaseball_/status/1622995089361457153

 

[JM3]

Here’s another way of looking at it.

26-man locks (no options):
Sale, Kluber, Pivetta, Paxton, Jansen, Martin, Rodriguez, Brasier, Bleier (9)
Kiké, Devers, Turner, Duvall, Mondesi, McGuire, Refsnyder, Arroyo (8)

Virtual locks:
Yoshida, Verdugo, Whitlock, Houck, Casas, Schreiber (6)

Optionables with MLB experience:
Bello, Dalbec, Duran, Crawford, Wong, Winckowski, Mills, Ort, Kelly

60-day IL
Story

The first 23 players are locks for the active roster, if healthy. You need a second catcher, so either Wong starts in Boston or you use Alfaro in Story's spot on the 40-man — either way that's 24. You need a 13th position player, and as it stands that's likely Dalbec, Duran or Andrus/Iglesias (25). Bello is arguably our best pitcher next year, so I'd personally have him up too. If everyone else is healthy, that's 26. When Story returns, that'd be 27. (I'm aware Mondesi might not be ready for opening day, but he's reportedly only expected to miss a little time if at all).

I can't really make this roster work with Pivetta, so I'm trading him off it for some cool non-40 man prospects. Although I guess technically they could take on a 40-man guy if they're removing Pivetta. If they are keeping Pivetta, I think I staple Kluber/Paxton together & make Houck more of a general reliever, but I would want him available for 2 innings each Sale start.

Assuming health for all except Story, this would be my desired roster permutations...

SP
1 Sale
2 Bello
3 Paxton
4 Whitlock
5 Kluber

Major League Depth - Houck
40-Man Depth - Crawford/Mata/Walter/Winckowski/Murphy

Staple
Houck - would like to see him mostly attached to the Paxton starts for 3 innings or so, with the ability to throw an inning in the Sale start as needed (it's the only reason I have Paxton ahead of Whitlock)

RP
CL Jansen
SU Martin
SU Schreiber
LH Joely
LH Bleier
RH Brasier (happy to move on from him, too - assuming health there would probably need to be another shuttle relief spot)
RH Kelly

40-Man Depth - Mills/Ort/Mata/Crawford/Walter/Murphy/Winckowski
Non-40 Depth - Altavilla/Sherriff/Dermody/Sharp/Broadway/Mosqueda/Theo/Gudino/etc.

C
Reese McGuire - start against righties
Connor Wong - start against lefties

Non-40 Depth - Alfaro/Hernandez/Hamilton/Scott

1B
Casas - start against all, occasional off day against tough lefties
Turner - occasional start against tough lefties

Major League Depth - Duvall/Valdez/Arroyo
40-Man Depth - Dalbec

2B
Valdez - start against most righties (assuming Spring Training goes well & he's ready...I have a feeling he will be, but who knows?)
Arroyo - start against lefties

Major League Depth - Kiké (if Mondesi is playing, he should be the SS)
40-Man Depth - Hamilton/Rafaela/Duran (let's try him there in AAA)
Non-40 Depth - Goodrum/Koss/Lugo/Fitzgerald/Sogard

SS
Mondesi - start against most righties
Kiké - start against lefties

Major League Depth - Arroyo
40-Man Depth - Hamilton/Rafaela
Non-40 Depth - Goodrum/Koss/Lugo/Fitzgerald/Sogard

3B
Devers - start against all, occasional day off or semi-rest day at DH

Major League Depth - Turner/Arroyo/Valdez
40-Man Depth - Dalbec
Non-40 Depth - Koss/Goodrum/Lugo

LF
Yoshida - start against all righties, some lefties
Refnsyder - start against some lefties

Major League Depth - Verdugo
40-Man Depth - Abreu/Duran/Rafaela
Non-40 Depth - Tapia/Allen/Scott

CF
Kiké - start against most righties
Duvall - start against lefties, some righties

Major League Depth - Meh
40-man Depth - Rafaela/Duran/Goodrum/Abreu/Hamilton
Non-40 Depth - Allen/Tapia

RF
Verdugo - start against righties, some lefties
Refsnyder - start against lefties when not starting in left

Major League Depth - Duvall
40-Man Depth - Rafaela/Abreu/Duran/Hamilton
Non-40 Depth - Tapia/Allen/Scott

DH
Turner - start most days, including all lefties when not at 1B or 3B

Major League Depth - Duvall/Valdez/Devers/Yoshida/etc.
40-Man Depth - Dalbec/etc.
Non-40 Depth - Alfaro/etc.

They will likely do a ton of swapping people around on a day to day basis & probably not really have a set lineup against lefties & righties, but generic default let's try...

v. Righties
LF Yoshida (L)
DH Turner (R)
3B Devers (L)
1B Casas (L)
RF Verdugo (L)
CF Kiké (R)
2B Valdez (L)
SS Mondesi (B)
C McGuire (L)

Bench
Duvall (R)
Arroyo (R)
Refsnyder (R)
Wong (R)

v. Lefties
SS Kiké (R)
3B Devers (L)
DH Turner (R)
1B Casas (L)
CF Duvall (R)
2B Arroyo (R)
LF Yoshida (L) or RF Verdugo (L)
LF/RF Refsnyder (R)
C Wong (R)

Bench
Yoshida (L) or Verdugo (L)
Mondesi (B)
Valdez (L)
McGuire (L)

 

[Max Power]

Are there a lot of teams with super palatable alternatives when their top two CF are injured at the same time?

The answer is Duran or Verdugo in CF (Refsnyder in RF). The answer at SS if Kike (and I guess Mondesi) is out is Arroyo with Valdez or Hamilton (or Wong) getting a call up to play 2B. Goodrum is, at best, a plan D or E at either spot.

If both Hernandez and Duvall are both on the IL, Tapia would be called up to take their place on the roster and get some time in center. He's started 50 games there in his career.

 

[JM3]

Greg Allen would also be a perfectly fine replacement. He's put up positive fWAR all 6 years of his career (albeit 0.1 to 0.6 & in between 32 & 291 PAs). He's played all 3 OF positions, but mostly CF.

 

[chawson]

I can't really make this roster work with Pivetta, so I'm trading him off it for some cool non-40 man prospects. Although I guess technically they could take on a 40-man guy if they're removing Pivetta. If they are keeping Pivetta, I think I staple Kluber/Paxton together & make Houck more of a general reliever, but I would want him available for 2 innings each Sale start.

Assuming health for all except Story, this would be my desired roster permutations...

SP
1 Sale
2 Bello
3 Paxton
4 Whitlock
5 Kluber

Major League Depth - Houck
40-Man Depth - Crawford/Mata/Walter/Winckowski/Murphy

Staple
Houck - would like to see him mostly attached to the Paxton starts for 3 innings or so, with the ability to throw an inning in the Sale start as needed (it's the only reason I have Paxton ahead of Whitlock)

RP
CL Jansen
SU Martin
SU Schreiber
LH Joely
LH Bleier
RH Brasier (happy to move on from him, too - assuming health there would probably need to be another shuttle relief spot)
RH Kelly

40-Man Depth - Mills/Ort/Mata/Crawford/Walter/Murphy/Winckowski
Non-40 Depth - Altavilla/Sherriff/Dermody/Sharp/Broadway/Mosqueda/Theo/Gudino/etc.

C
Reese McGuire - start against righties
Connor Wong - start against lefties

Non-40 Depth - Alfaro/Hernandez/Hamilton/Scott

1B
Casas - start against all, occasional off day against tough lefties
Turner - occasional start against tough lefties

Major League Depth - Duvall/Valdez/Arroyo
40-Man Depth - Dalbec

2B
Valdez - start against most righties (assuming Spring Training goes well & he's ready...I have a feeling he will be, but who knows?)
Arroyo - start against lefties

Major League Depth - Kiké (if Mondesi is playing, he should be the SS)
40-Man Depth - Hamilton/Rafaela/Duran (let's try him there in AAA)
Non-40 Depth - Goodrum/Koss/Lugo/Fitzgerald/Sogard

SS
Mondesi - start against most righties
Kiké - start against lefties

Major League Depth - Arroyo
40-Man Depth - Hamilton/Rafaela
Non-40 Depth - Goodrum/Koss/Lugo/Fitzgerald/Sogard

3B
Devers - start against all, occasional day off or semi-rest day at DH

Major League Depth - Turner/Arroyo/Valdez
40-Man Depth - Dalbec
Non-40 Depth - Koss/Goodrum/Lugo

LF
Yoshida - start against all righties, some lefties
Refnsyder - start against some lefties

Major League Depth - Verdugo
40-Man Depth - Abreu/Duran/Rafaela
Non-40 Depth - Tapia/Allen/Scott

CF
Kiké - start against most righties
Duvall - start against lefties, some righties

Major League Depth - Meh
40-man Depth - Rafaela/Duran/Goodrum/Abreu/Hamilton
Non-40 Depth - Allen/Tapia

RF
Verdugo - start against righties, some lefties
Refsnyder - start against lefties when not starting in left

Major League Depth - Duvall
40-Man Depth - Rafaela/Abreu/Duran/Hamilton
Non-40 Depth - Tapia/Allen/Scott

DH
Turner - start most days, including all lefties when not at 1B or 3B

Major League Depth - Duvall/Valdez/Devers/Yoshida/etc.
40-Man Depth - Dalbec/etc.
Non-40 Depth - Alfaro/etc.

They will likely do a ton of swapping people around on a day to day basis & probably not really have a set lineup against lefties & righties, but generic default let's try...

v. Righties
LF Yoshida (L)
DH Turner (R)
3B Devers (L)
1B Casas (L)
RF Verdugo (L)
CF Kiké (R)
2B Valdez (L)
SS Mondesi (B)
C McGuire (L)

Bench
Duvall (R)
Arroyo (R)
Refsnyder (R)
Wong (R)

v. Lefties
SS Kiké (R)
3B Devers (L)
DH Turner (R)
1B Casas (L)
CF Duvall (R)
2B Arroyo (R)
LF Yoshida (L) or RF Verdugo (L)
LF/RF Refsnyder (R)
C Wong (R)

Bench
Yoshida (L) or Verdugo (L)
Mondesi (B)
Valdez (L)
McGuire (L)

This is great, thanks for doing this up.

I agree. Pivetta doesn’t make sense on this roster unless you’re playing Bello in Worcester, which is absurd, or treating Paxton as a full-time long reliever or mop-up guy, which is silly because we would never have signed him to begin with if we thought that’s his optimal role.

For hitters, it’s Dalbec who doesn’t make sense. He doesn’t give you anything over Turner, and is arguably not even a DH upgrade against lefties over Refsnyder in cases where Turner plays 1B.

Ideally, you want to reallocate Pivetta’s roster spot to a RP carousel (Mills, Crawford, Ort, Kelly) and Dalbec’s to anyone outside the organization who can play 2B/SS/CF/RF better than the prospects we have on the 40 (Valdez, Hamilton, Abreu, Duran).

 

[JM3]

This is great, thanks for doing this up.

I agree. Pivetta doesn’t make sense on this roster unless you’re playing Bello in Worcester, which is absurd, or treating Paxton as a full-time long reliever or mop-up guy, which is silly because we would never have signed him to begin with if we thought that’s his optimal role.

For hitters, it’s Dalbec who doesn’t make sense. He doesn’t give you anything over Turner, and is arguably not even a DH upgrade against lefties over Refsnyder in cases where Turner plays 1B.

Ideally, you want to reallocate Pivetta’s roster spot to a RP carousel (Mills, Crawford, Ort, Kelly) and Dalbec’s to anyone outside the organization who can play 2B/SS/CF/RF better than the prospects we have on the 40 (Valdez, Hamilton, Abreu, Duran).

Yeah, I'm hoping Valdez is that guy, but if not moving Pivetta/Dalbec for the best piece you can wouldn't be bad.

 

[Niastri]

Are there a lot of teams with super palatable alternatives when their top two CF are injured at the same time?

The answer is Duran or Verdugo in CF (Refsnyder in RF). The answer at SS if Kike (and I guess Mondesi) is out is Arroyo with Valdez or Hamilton (or Wong) getting a call up to play 2B. Goodrum is, at best, a plan D or E at either spot.

The difference between the Sox currently and every other team, is that Kike currently represents both or best center fielder and probably our best shortstop. One of those positions needs to have an adequate starter instead of him. Right now, we're going into the season with either a utility infielder starting in the middle infield or a fourth outfielder starting in center.

Either problem gets resolved by signing a decent middle infielder (or center fielder, but there aren't any of those available for just money). I really don't want the plan to be punting on a good team before the season even starts.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Pivetta is expendable if all the other starters are healthy, but what are the odds of that? Dumping the one guy who isn’t going to be on an innings limit seems really risky, especially when the depth is a bunch of non-prospects. Maybe you move him if it’s mid March and everyone looks great, but a lot has to go right for that to happen.

I also don’t really like the idea of limiting one of our better relievers in Houck to caddying for Paxton. I’d much rather have him able to impact more games and in more high lev spots as opposed to pre-assigning him a day to pitch each week.

 

[JM3]

Pivetta is expendable if all the other starters are healthy, but what are the odds of that? Dumping the one guy who isn’t going to be on an innings limit seems really risky, especially when the depth is a bunch of non-prospects. Maybe you move him if it’s mid March and everyone looks great, but a lot has to go right for that to happen.

I also don’t really like the idea of limiting one of our better relievers in Houck to caddying for Paxton. I’d much rather have him able to impact more games and in more high lev spots as opposed to pre-assigning him a day to pitch each week.

So who is in your starting rotation/bullpen? I refuse to countenance Bello in the minors. Agree there isn't a huge rush on trading Pivetta, though, unless a nice offer is on the table which might not be later.

Getting Houck 4 or 5 innings a time through the rotation allows him to pitch 130 innings or so. I'd rather him pitch more innings than certain high leverage innings when we already have 3 good high leverage relievers.

I also want Houck stretched out because I would want him to have 1st shot at the rotation if someone goes on IL.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

So who is in your starting rotation/bullpen? I refuse to countenance Bello in the minors. Agree there isn't a huge rush on trading Pivetta, though, unless a nice offer is on the table which might not be later.

Getting Houck 4 or 5 innings a time through the rotation allows him to pitch 130 innings or so. I'd rather him pitch more innings than certain high leverage innings when we already have 3 good high leverage relievers.

I also want Houck stretched out because I would want him to have 1st shot at the rotation if someone goes on IL.

Six man rotation to start the year? I wouldn't be shocked at all if they went that way if everyone is healthy out of the gate. They can limit innings for all of their potential starters that way, and simply eliminate the weak link when the time comes to tighten things up (again assuming all stay healthy). Use Houck as a long man (maybe finish a game a week?) and perhaps deploy one of the starters in the pen midway between his scheduled starts to serve as an emergency option to preserve the main relievers a bit.

I expect things will be quite fluid through spring training.

 

[Max Power]

In the extremely unlikely event that all of Sale, Paxton, Kluber, and Whitlock are healthy on opening day, you'd probably bump Whitlock to relief and go with a rotation of Sale, Bello, Kluber, Pivetta, and Paxton. Houck is working out of the pen until the team is confident he can handle tough lefties.

 

[JM3]

Six man rotation to start the year? I wouldn't be shocked at all if they went that way if everyone is healthy out of the gate. They can limit innings for all of their potential starters that way, and simply eliminate the weak link when the time comes to tighten things up (again assuming all stay healthy). Use Houck as a long man (maybe finish a game a week?) and perhaps deploy one of the starters in the pen midway between his scheduled starts to serve as an emergency option to preserve the main relievers a bit.

I expect things will be quite fluid through spring training.

Imo 6-man rotation is the absolute worst of the options because it leaves 7 other guys to cover all those extra innings. I think shorter starts on normal rest is better than more rest with awkward relief appearances mixed in.

 

[Cassvt2023]

In the extremely unlikely event that all of Sale, Paxton, Kluber, and Whitlock are healthy on opening day, you'd probably bump Whitlock to relief and go with a rotation of Sale, Bello, Kluber, Pivetta, and Paxton. Houck is working out of the pen until the team is confident he can handle tough lefties.

I'd generally agree with these 5 if all are healthy, but i'd pitch them Sale, Kluber, Bello, Paxton, Pivetta in that order. Pivetta is actually a decent 5th starter, not the #2 -3 we've asked him to be. Splitting up Sale and Paxton let's Houck follow each one on a lot of days, which would likely give him a bunch of RHH to face. Whitlock has pretty much shown that he can pitch in any situation in the pen, but has not had enough of a chance to prove himself as a starter yet.

 

[kazuneko]

I can't really make this roster work with Pivetta, so I'm trading him off it for some cool non-40 man prospects. Although I guess technically they could take on a 40-man guy if they're removing Pivetta. If they are keeping Pivetta, I think I staple Kluber/Paxton together & make Houck more of a general reliever, but I would want him available for 2 innings each Sale start.

Assuming health for all except Story, this would be my desired roster permutations...

SS
Kiké - start against lefties

CF
Kiké - start against most righties
Duvall - start against lefties, some righties

I get that this is your desired (not expected) roster permutations but there is no indication this is likely.....
According to Cora, Bloom and even Kike himself, the primary SS of the Red Sox in 2023 will be Enrique Hernandez and Duvall (who has said publicly that he chose the Red Sox because he would be given the chance to start) will be the team's starting CF. I get that everyone loves Kike's CF defense but it's become apparent that the Sox believe that his impressive small sample size performance at SS (9 DRS in 618 career innings - a rate that is better than what Jeremy Pena did in 22' when he led the league at the position) is not a fluke. Let's also remember that Mondesi (who has had less than 400ABs combined in the last 3 seasons) might be ideally suited to a back-up role as he seems completely incapable of staying healthy.

 

[kazuneko]

Probably don't need to say that I hope to high holy heaven and hell that it never ever comes to that.

Both the starters at 2b (Arroyo) and SS (Kike) missed significant time last year with injuries and the backup INF (Mondesi) has had less than 400 ABs combined in the last 3 seasons. If Nico is their depth beyond these three I think we might want to get used to the idea that he might get some ABs with the Sox this season. Kind of a shame that the Sox couldn't have snagged Josh Harrison on the deal he signed with the Phillies...

 

[JM3]

I get that this is your desired (not expected) roster permutations but there is no indication this is likely.....
According to Cora, Bloom and even Kike himself, the primary SS of the Red Sox in 2023 will be Enrique Hernandez and Duvall (who has said publicly that he chose the Red Sox because he would be given the chance to start) will be the team's starting CF. I get that everyone loves Kike's CF defense but it's become apparent that the Sox believe that his impressive small sample size performance at SS (9 DRS in 618 career innings - a rate that is better than what Jeremy Pena did in 22' when he led the league at the position) is not a fluke. Let's also remember that Mondesi (who has had less than 400ABs combined in the last 3 seasons) might be ideally suited to a back-up role as he seems completely incapable of staying healthy.

Weren't all those conversations prior to acquiring Mondesi? By far their best defensive alignment involves Mondesi at SS & Hernandez in CF.

& Mondesi hits righties at least as well or better than Duvall. So it seems like a no brainer, assuming health, to make Mondesi the usual SS against righties. But if they face a few righties in a row, by all means give him those days off, too.

 

[YTF]

I get that this is your desired (not expected) roster permutations but there is no indication this is likely.....
According to Cora, Bloom and even Kike himself, the primary SS of the Red Sox in 2023 will be Enrique Hernandez and Duvall (who has said publicly that he chose the Red Sox because he would be given the chance to start) will be the team's starting CF. I get that everyone loves Kike's CF defense but it's become apparent that the Sox believe that his impressive small sample size performance at SS (9 DRS in 618 career innings - a rate that is better than what Jeremy Pena did in 22' when he led the league at the position) is not a fluke. Let's also remember that Mondesi (who has had less than 400ABs combined in the last 3 seasons) might be ideally suited to a back-up role as he seems completely incapable of staying healthy.

IIRC, this was stated previous to the acquisition of Mondesi. Once/if he proves to be healthy I think the addition of Mondesi allows Kike to be part of a four man OF rotation as well as part of a 3 man MI rotation Similar to what JM3 had suggested.

 

[kazuneko]

IIRC, this was stated previous to the acquisition of Mondesi. Once/if he proves to be healthy I think the addition of Mondesi allows Kike to be part of a four man OF rotation as well as part of a 3 man MI rotation Similar to what JM3 had suggested.

The rotation JM3 suggested has Duvall as a back-up, used primarily against LHP. That's not what he agreed to when he signed with the team. I would expect that Kike will get some time in CF, but penciling him in as the primary CF against RHP contradicts the idea that Duvall will be more than a bench player and violates the Sox's promise to him when he was signed. Obviously things will change as soon as someone gets injured (though the most likely injury is probably to Mondesi), and it wouldn't be shocking if a trade involving Verdugo happens, but barring preseason injuries or a trade I don't think the Sox can go with JM3's suggestions to begin the season.
Edit:
There is also this...
Per Ian Browne, on 1/24/23:
Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters on Tuesday that Adalberto Mondesi is still rehabbing after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee and may not be ready for Opening Day.
Bloom also went on to say that he still views Enrique Hernandez as his club's starting shortstop -- even after Mondesi is ready to return. It's unlikely that the Red Sox would go out and acquire Mondesi if they didn't intend to play him regularly -- for as long as he's healthy. This could just mean that Mondesi will play second base -- or even function as somewhat of a utility infielder. Ultimately, expect the speedster to find plenty of at-bats whenever he's not on the injured list.

 

[kazuneko]

Weren't all those conversations prior to acquiring Mondesi? By far their best defensive alignment involves Mondesi at SS & Hernandez in CF.
& Mondesi hits righties at least as well or better than Duvall. So it seems like a no brainer, assuming health, to make Mondesi the usual SS against righties. But if they face a few righties in a row, by all means give him those days off, too.

Adam Duvall's career OPS against RHP is .75 points (.749 OPS vs. .674 OPS) higher than Adalberto Mondesi. And as mentioned above, Bloom has stated that he still plans to use Kike as the primary SS - even after the Mondesi trade.

 

[YTF]

The rotation JM3 suggested has Duvall as a back-up, used primarily against LHP. That's not what he agreed to when he signed with the team. I would expect that Kike will get some time in CF, but penciling him in as the primary CF against RHP contradicts the idea that Duvall will be more than a bench player and violates the Sox's promise to him when he was signed. Obviously things will change as soon as someone gets injured (though the most likely injury is probably to Mondesi), and it wouldn't be shocking if a trade involving Verdugo happens, but barring preseason injuries or a trade I don't think the Sox can go with JM3's suggestions to begin the season.
Edit:
There is also this...
Per Ian Browne, on 1/24/23:
Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters on Tuesday that Adalberto Mondesi is still rehabbing after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee and may not be ready for Opening Day.
Bloom also went on to say that he still views Enrique Hernandez as his club's starting shortstop -- even after Mondesi is ready to return. It's unlikely that the Red Sox would go out and acquire Mondesi if they didn't intend to play him regularly -- for as long as he's healthy. This could just mean that Mondesi will play second base -- or even function as somewhat of a utility infielder. Ultimately, expect the speedster to find plenty of at-bats whenever he's not on the injured list.

Being part of a rotation can be different than being a backup/bench guy.

 

[chawson]

I think they give Mondesi every chance to run with the job. If he's healthy and productive, he's probably our best shortstop option for 2024, either via the QO or through a modest extension (always easier to sign guys already in-house).

I think they've bluffing somewhat about how much Kiké plays shortstop. It seems wild to me that they'd ask him and Duvall — age 31 and 34, who combined missed 145 games last year — to become primary starters at positions up the defensive spectrum. I could be wrong about this.

My ideal team next year is pretty close to @JM3's above. The difference is that I don't think we send Dalbec down. If he rakes in Worcester, he's pretty much in the same position Cordero was in last year: a stalled-out, 28-year-old Statcast darling who seems dangerously close to a AAAA guy, except Dalbec has less utility in the field and is a weak-side platoon hitter. If he rakes in AAA, does anyone trade for him? He's still got a few years of team control, but I'd say it's doubtful unless he proves he can hit major league pitching. And he's not going to do that in Boston now that Casas is up and Turner is here.

I think you open like this.

Position players: McGuire, Alfaro, Casas, Arroyo, Devers, Mondesi, Yoshida, Hernández, Verdugo, Duvall, Refsnyder, Turner, 2B/SS/CF/RF TBA
Pitchers: Sale, Bello, Paxton, Whitlock, Kluber, Jansen, Martin, Joely, Schreiber, Bleier, Brasier, Houck, Kelly or Mills

Once teams can stash players on the 60-day IL, then they'll be able to afford to trade again. If the Sox wanted to trade for, say, Jorge Mateo and the Orioles asked for Pivetta and Dalbec, it would make sense for the O's to want to wait until they can take John Means off the 40-man before accepting it. This could also be holding up a deal with the Marlins for Wendle, who have three players to put on the 60-day IL (Sanchez, Meyer and Bender).

 

[kazuneko]

Being part of a rotation can be different than being a backup/bench guy.

I'm just responding to JM3's post that had Duvall limited to only starting against LHP. That doesn't seem to be a great rotation to be a part of for a guy who is looking to be a regular. That said, we all know there will be injuries and maybe even a trade. I'm just saying that it would be pretty difficult for the team to limit Duvall to ABs against LHP to start the season and pretend as if they are keeping their agreement to him when he signed his deal.
That said, once the inevitable injury opens up another position, it will be far easier to get regular Duvall ABs while keeping still having Kike at CF.

 

[kazuneko]

I think they give Mondesi every chance to run with the job. If he's healthy and productive, he's probably our best shortstop option for 2024, either via the QO or through a modest extension (always easier to sign guys already in-house).
I think they've bluffing somewhat about how much Kiké plays shortstop. It seems wild to me that they'd ask him and Duvall — age 31 and 34, who combined missed 145 games last year — to become primary starters at positions up the defensive spectrum. I could be wrong about this.

Isn''t it even more wild to expect Mondesi to get starter ABs at any position -forget SS? He's coming off three injury-plagued (less than 400 ABs combined) seasons and an ACL injury and isn't even expected to be ready to start the season. I think the Sox need to really consider signing another IF as it seems a bit unrealistic to think any of these guys (Arroyo, Kike and Mondesi) will be healthy enough to prevent Nico Goodrum from getting a bunch of ABs.

 

[chawson]

Isn''t it even more wild to expect Mondesi to get starter ABs at any position -forget SS? He's coming off three injury-plagued (less than 400 ABs combined) seasons and an ACL injury and isn't even expected to be ready to start the season. I think the Sox need to really consider signing another IF as it seems a bit unrealistic to think any of these guys (Arroyo, Kike and Mondesi) will be healthy enough to prevent Nico Goodrum from getting a bunch of ABs.

I think you cautiously view him as the starter, yes, and acquire another solid back-up with starter upside via trade.

What you don’t do at this point, I think, is sign a guy (like Andrus or Iglesias) who’d block Mondesi, who has a much higher ceiling. Mondesi’s only got a year here, and the best-case scenario is he’s awesome and either re-ups, stays via QO or leaves and we collect a draft pick.

That’s why Mateo and Wendle, or maybe even Paul DeJong, seem like good targets to me. They’re all glove-first shortstops with different kinds of upside at the plate.

Niko Goodrum doesn’t seem far off from that. He was a solid player as recently as 2018-19 and a competent backup as recently as 2021. The pandemic (and last year’s shortened spring training) does weird things. He’s not particularly old, so it doesn’t seem outlandish to me that he’d rebound to a Brock Holt-style player. Maybe something happened and he’s done, but it seems like a good sign to me that the Astros were willing to give him a major-league deal worth $2.1 million a year ago.

 

[JM3]

The rotation JM3 suggested has Duvall as a back-up, used primarily against LHP. That's not what he agreed to when he signed with the team. I would expect that Kike will get some time in CF, but penciling him in as the primary CF against RHP contradicts the idea that Duvall will be more than a bench player and violates the Sox's promise to him when he was signed. Obviously things will change as soon as someone gets injured (though the most likely injury is probably to Mondesi), and it wouldn't be shocking if a trade involving Verdugo happens, but barring preseason injuries or a trade I don't think the Sox can go with JM3's suggestions to begin the season.
Edit:
There is also this...
Per Ian Browne, on 1/24/23:
Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters on Tuesday that Adalberto Mondesi is still rehabbing after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee and may not be ready for Opening Day.
Bloom also went on to say that he still views Enrique Hernandez as his club's starting shortstop -- even after Mondesi is ready to return. It's unlikely that the Red Sox would go out and acquire Mondesi if they didn't intend to play him regularly -- for as long as he's healthy. This could just mean that Mondesi will play second base -- or even function as somewhat of a utility infielder. Ultimately, expect the speedster to find plenty of at-bats whenever he's not on the injured list.

I mean they can say/do what they want, but it's fairly suboptimal.

Also, neither Mondesi or Hernandez is playing 100% of the time against righties, & many games there is going to be a pinch hit spot against LHPs.

Let's assume good health for a minute (because that was the point of this exercise).

Approximately 30% of games are started by lefties, 70% by righties.

Mondesi isn't starting any of the games against lefties in this scenario, leaving 113 games against righties. Let's start him at SS in 100 of those games.

Hernandez isn't going to start 100% of the games, but let's start him against all lefties (119 wRC+ against lefties last year compared 60 against righties, career 121/81).

So let's give Hernandez 140 total starts - all 49 against lefties , 91 against righties. Of those 91 against righties, 13 are at SS, so that leaves 35 of the 113 games against righties he's not in CF.

Meaning Duvall would get 49 starts against lefties & 35 starts against righties in CF. So 84 total starts - assuming perfect health for everyone which is...unlikely. But even if he only gets 84 starts, he's still looking at approximately 420+ PAs including pinch hitting, which he would be doing basically any time a lefty came in against McGuire/Mondesi/Valdez later in the game. & if he actually hits righties well? Guess what? More playing time!

Adam Duvall's career OPS against RHP is .75 points (.749 OPS vs. .674 OPS) better than Adalberto Mondesi. And as mentioned above, Bloom has stated that he still plans to use Kike as the primary SS - even after the Mondesi trade.

What I was looking at was Mondesi's career wRC+ v. righties (86) v. Duvall's wRC+ v. righties last year (73). I chose those #s because Mondesi didn't really play last year & Duvall did, but it's true that Duvall's career wRC+ against righties is 94. Mondesi's career is his age 20-26 seasons, though, & Duvall's is his age 25-33 seasons, which makes a big difference.

 

[Max Power]

If Mondesi gets a QO, I'll give you the $19 million he'd be due in 2024.

 

[chrisfont9]

The rotation JM3 suggested has Duvall as a back-up, used primarily against LHP. That's not what he agreed to when he signed with the team. I would expect that Kike will get some time in CF, but penciling him in as the primary CF against RHP contradicts the idea that Duvall will be more than a bench player and violates the Sox's promise to him when he was signed. Obviously things will change as soon as someone gets injured (though the most likely injury is probably to Mondesi), and it wouldn't be shocking if a trade involving Verdugo happens, but barring preseason injuries or a trade I don't think the Sox can go with JM3's suggestions to begin the season.
Edit:
There is also this...
Per Ian Browne, on 1/24/23:
Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters on Tuesday that Adalberto Mondesi is still rehabbing after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee and may not be ready for Opening Day.
Bloom also went on to say that he still views Enrique Hernandez as his club's starting shortstop -- even after Mondesi is ready to return. It's unlikely that the Red Sox would go out and acquire Mondesi if they didn't intend to play him regularly -- for as long as he's healthy. This could just mean that Mondesi will play second base -- or even function as somewhat of a utility infielder. Ultimately, expect the speedster to find plenty of at-bats whenever he's not on the injured list.

Thanks for this. It rebuts the idea that they would still bring in Andrus or Iglesias. It kind of tells us all we need to know: they have their guys, but their positions might not be set for a while.

 

[kazuneko]

What I was looking at was Mondesi's career wRC+ v. righties (86) v. Duvall's wRC+ v. righties last year (73). I chose those #s because Mondesi didn't really play last year & Duvall did, but it's true that Duvall's career wRC+ against righties is 94. Mondesi's career is his age 20-26 seasons, though, & Duvall's is his age 25-33 seasons, which makes a big difference.

I think that's a bit of a creative way to look at it and risks giving a disproportionate amount of emphasis to Duvall's 214 ABs against RHP in 2022. I mean, in 2021 he had 384 ABs against RHP and his wRC+ was 116. Is there good reason to believe that those 214 2022 ABs mean that he's lost his ability to hit RHP?

 

[YTF]

I'm just responding to JM3's post that had Duvall limited to only starting against LHP. That doesn't seem to be a great rotation to be a part of for a guy who is looking to be a regular. That said, we all know there will be injuries and maybe even a trade. I'm just saying that it would be pretty difficult for the team to limit Duvall to ABs against LHP to start the season and pretend as if they are keeping their agreement to him when he signed his deal.
That said, once the inevitable injury opens up another position, it will be far easier to get regular Duvall ABs while keeping still having Kike at CF.

That's why I used the word "similar" in the post you quoted. These things are fluid, nothing's etched in stone. Out of curiosity, how many games played and ABs did Chaim promise Duvall

 

[nvalvo]

If Mondesi gets a QO, I'll give you the $19 million he'd be due in 2024.

He had a 2.4 WAR season in 75 games played — that's a 5 WAR pace. I wouldn't say it's likely that he has a season good enough to warrant a QO, but the talent is in there.

 

[JM3]

I think that's a bit of a creative way to look at it and risks giving a disproportionate amount of emphasis to Duvall's 214 ABs against RHP in 2022. I mean, in 2021 he had 384 ABs against RHP and his wRC+ was 116. Is there good reason to believe that those 214 2022 ABs mean that he's lost his ability to hit RHP?

Yes. I did not mean to be creative, was just explaining my thought when I had it. I'm actually rethinking my take on Mondesi's vast defense superiority to Hernandez. Mondesi crushes him in OAA, but is worse in DRS & UZR/150.

I'm preemptively reducing Mondesi to 92 starts & upping Duvall to 92 starts.

 

[chawson]

If Mondesi gets a QO, I'll give you the $19 million he'd be due in 2024.

As of today, who do you think plays SS and 2B for the Sox in 2024?

Mondesi playing well enough to receive a QO isn't the likeliest of outcomes, but stranger things have happened.

His ZIPS projection is 2.2 fWAR in 320 PA and 80 games. Say he does exactly that (and finishes the year healthy). Do you give him 1/$19M? Would you rather do a multi-year deal for an inferior defensive shortstop like Amed Rosario? Or pay 2/$12 or something for Joey Wendle's 34-35 seasons?

We'll have plenty of time to argue about this kind of thing, but I think Mondesi playing his way onto the 2024 team would be a very positive outcome.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

As of today, who do you think plays SS and 2B for the Sox in 2024?

Mondesi playing well enough to receive a QO isn't the likeliest of outcomes, but stranger things have happened.

His ZIPS projection is 2.2 fWAR in 320 PA and 80 games. Say he does exactly that (and finishes the year healthy). Do you give him 1/$19M? Would you rather do a multi-year deal for an inferior defensive shortstop like Amed Rosario? Or pay 2/$12 or something for Joey Wendle's 34-35 seasons?

We'll have plenty of time to argue about this kind of thing, but I think Mondesi playing his way onto the 2024 team would be a very positive outcome.

Well, presumably one of those spots will be held by Trevor Story. And they'll have Arroyo still under team control. And Valdez and Hamilton with another year of development under their belt. Yorke, Lugo, and Mayer will also have another year of (hopefully) positive development as well. It's not like they don't have internal options that could emerge before next year.

Mondesi would have to return from his ACL surgery 100% recovered and have one hell of a year to justify a 1/$20M offer for 2024. My guess is that if they want him for 2024, it won't cost them nearly as much as a QO to get it done.

 

[chawson]

Well, presumably one of those spots will be held by Trevor Story. And they'll have Arroyo still under team control. And Valdez and Hamilton with another year of development under their belt. Yorke, Lugo, and Mayer will also have another year of (hopefully) positive development as well. It's not like they don't have internal options that could emerge before next year.

Mondesi would have to return from his ACL surgery 100% recovered and have one hell of a year to justify a 1/$20M offer for 2024. My guess is that if they want him for 2024, it won't cost them nearly as much as a QO to get it done.

Sure. I see Story as the long-term 2B when he returns, but I guess it isn’t possible to speculate that without rehashing the interminable arm strength debate.

I agree, if he’s healthy and good then it’s likelier that the Sox sign Mondesi to a short extension than give him a QO. But it’s in the range of possibilities, given the dearth of available shortstops in the league and his breakout potential.

 

[nvalvo]

Ceddanne Rafaela is a candidate.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Isn’t Kiké just on a one year deal?

 

[OCD SS]

Ceddanne Rafaela is a candidate.

Let’s see how he manages to reshape his approach at the plate in AAA.

He’s also better in CF by all reports, so if he comes up it’s probably better to shift Kike back to the IF.

 

[walt in maryland]

I am guessing Alfaro was already promised one of those spots, Tapia too maybe? We will see soon.

Alfaro, I know, has opt-outs if he isn't on the big-league team by (I believe) June 1 and July 1. Tapia may have them too. But Story going on the 60-day IL only creates one spot.

 

[walt in maryland]

Let’s see how he manages to reshape his approach at the plate in AAA.

He’s also better in CF by all reports, so if he comes up it’s probably better to shift Kike back to the IF.

Rafaela need ABs in Triple A

 

[walt in maryland]

I believe the Sox are done making moves, especially for position players. The two positions that seem to lack the most depth in case of injury appear to be CF and SS. In center, aside from Duvall and Kiki, there is really no one else you'd want to see there. This is where Tapia would probably step in, and possibly Duran or Niko. At short, it's Kiki, Mondesi, and Arroyo (not crazy about this beyond in a pinch). Once again, Niko could play there some if there is an injury and/or Mondesi isn't ready.

Wouldn't be surprised to see another middle infielder added. Possibly a reliever too.