What does 2023 look like?

[LogansDad]

I will take my rose-colored shot:

Starting Pitching:
1) Sale
2) Eovaldi (I think he signs a 1 year deal somewhere around the QO mark)
3) Pivetta
4) Paxton
5) Bello
6) Whitlock

I actually really like this staff. I am probably on the crazy side, but I think that Paxton is going to have a monster year this season, and I think by the end Red Sox fans will be in love with him for what he gave us for $10M.

Bullpen:
CL: Jansen
Martin
Schrieber
Barnes
Houck
Brasier
Kelly
German

I actually like this bullpen, too. Jansen and Martin allow them to slot the other guys where they need them and maybe not run Schrieber into the ground like last year. It's a pretty deep pen, and should also be able to help with load management for the starters to try to keep them healthy. I do worry about Jansen with the pitch clock, though.

Catchers:
McGuire (L)
Wong (R)

I think they are probably done here, but would not be surprised to see them add someone like Sanchez to primarily be a DH but backup at catcher when needed. I also wouldn't be opposed to seeing them sign someone like Hedges, who is a solid pitch framer, though his noodle bat doesn't lengthen the lineup.

Infield:
1B: Casas (L)/Hosmer (R)
2B: Story (R)
3B: Devers (L)
SS:

IF Bench:
Arroyo (R)
Dalbec (R)

SS is obviously the big question mark. I am a fan of Swanson so would love him on a not-ridiculous deal (I like the 6/$160 that has been mentioned), but I think someone is going to go to the moon for him. They could slot Hernandez or Story there, but I think both of them are more valuable at CF/2B respectively. I would also be okay with Iglesias, who isn't what he once was defensively, but who puts the ball in play (95% in K% and Whiff%), which could be useful for a team that I think is going to have some strikeout problems. He also has some speed. I think this is probably who they end up with, much to the chagrin of many.

Outfield:
LF: Verdugo (L)/Yoshida (L)
CF: Hernandez (R)
RF:

Bench: Refsnyder

I think they need another free agent signing here, assuming they actually want to be competitive in the AL. If they fill RF with a trade (assuming at least one of Verdugo/Dalbec and/or one of Houck/Whitlock would move in that deal), then it would prevent a depth addition, so while I think it is possible, I think they go the free agent route. The names still available don't really inspire confidence, and I wish I thought Verdugo would take a step forward because it would make signing a league avrage-ish bat for a corner outfield position more palatable. I will say that I really want nothing to do with Gallo here, and I really don't think they are dead set on a right handed bat. Any of Benintendi/Myers/Brantley/Pollock make sense if you squint, but they might be too expensive for the production you can actually expect from them, and I really think the goal is going to be to get a starter and a utility guy here. I am going to guess they end up with David Peralta and one of the four mentioned in the previous sentence. Tha would also move Yoshida to mostly DH.

Primary Lineup:
Hernandez
Yoshida (assuming relative success)
Devers
Story
Verdugo
Casas
Peralta (or other FA)
McGuire/Wong
Iglesias

That's not a terrible team.

 

[dhappy42]

...
Primary Lineup:
Hernandez
Yoshida (assuming relative success)
Devers
Story
Verdugo
Casas
Peralta (or other FA)
McGuire/Wong
Iglesias

That's not a terrible team.

It's not. Unfortunately, to compete in the AL East, the Red Sox need to be much better than not terrible.

 

[LogansDad]

It's not. Unfortunately, to compete in the AL East, the Red Sox need to be much better than not terrible.

No disagreement there, but with the new schedule and expanded playoffs I see no reason that team can't at least play meaningful baseball in September, if not October.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

You'd really rather have the next 3 years of Eric Hosmer at a $5.5M AAV hit and Bobby Dalbec clogging up the roster for the than the next 3 years of Kyle Schwarber at a $20m AAV hit? Maybe you would, but I wouldn't.

Triston Casas + Kyle Schwarber at some combo of 1b and DH for $10m AAV average >>> Triston Casas and Eric Hosmer for $2.75m AAV average.

Wait, where is this $5.5 million AAV for Hosmer coming from? The Red Sox only owe him the minimum salary.
https://www.si.com/mlb/2022/08/03/red-sox-paying-only-minimum-portion-eric-hosmer-salary

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Exactly why I said: "A good GM might have said "Hmmm, I can play him at 1b for a year while Casas develops then move him to DH when Martinez is off the books. And if Casas displays an inability to hit LHP for the 3rd season in a row, I'm covered at first base."

And, again, this isn't just second guessing. I'm saying I would have done the exact same thing with Bogaerts at close to what he got in SD (though you probably could have gotten away with 10yrs / $250m in Boston). In this hypothetical world, Bogaerts is your SS for the next 2/3 years, then Mayer comes up. Which, hey, dovetails nicely with DH/1b Kyle Schwarber coming off the books, and Xander can move to LF, 1b or DH if necessary.

And Bloom very well might have said this. And Schwarber might have said "Hmmm, I can go to Philly for about the same money and I never have to play an inning of first base again." Schwarber was a free agent. He had a choice. It's not unreasonable to think that he still considers himself an outfielder, in fact, it's likely.

 

[E5 Yaz]

And Bloom very well might have said this. And Schwarber might have said "Hmmm, I can go to Philly for about the same money and I never have to play an inning of first base again." Schwarber was a free agent. He had a choice. It's not unreasonable to think that he still considers himself an outfielder, in fact, it's likely.

This ... I continue to be befuddled by posts that suggest that the players involved might have minds of their own. That why the stuff about being in "heavy discussion" with a free agent, then being mad when he signs elsewhere, are so inherently funny. Players aren't turning down the Red Sox; they choosing to play elsewhere.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

And Bloom very well might have said this. And Schwarber might have said "Hmmm, I can go to Philly for about the same money and I never have to play an inning of first base again." Schwarber was a free agent. He had a choice. It's not unreasonable to think that he still considers himself an outfielder, in fact, it's likely.

Put him in LF then, we do have a small left field in terms of ground to cover. We had an opening there too (well, as much as we do for Yoshida), in that we move Verdugo to RF. I actually like the Yoshida signing, but I'd rather have the next 3 years of Schwarber in LF at $20m than 5 of Yoshida at $19m.

That actually works even better because maybe we don't waste $8m in AAV in 2022 and another $8m in AAV in 2023 for Jackie Bradley Jr. So we'd have Schwarber in LF, Hernandez in CF, Verdugo in RF and another $8m (with Hosmer) or $13.7m without him that could have been spent this year.

Wait, where is this $5.5 million AAV for Hosmer coming from? The Red Sox only owe him the minimum salary.
https://www.si.com/mlb/2022/08/03/red-sox-paying-only-minimum-portion-eric-hosmer-salary

Yes, we're on the hook for actually $5.7m AAV for the next three years. SportTrac and Cots both have this (and I checked in another thread as well to triple check this). If he cost nothing against the AAV, fine, no problems, good move. But that's not the case. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/

 

[JM3]

Eric Hosmer's AAV doesn't matter to a team well below the threshold so they should be able to trade him for a small asset, & he's free, & they got prospects they liked more than Groome in the deal, who were further away from needing to be on the 40-man. I don't understand the angst. Plus he's buddies with Casas.

Schwarber is a bad defensive player no matter where he plays defense.

 

[Jack Rabbit Slim]

Yes, we're on the hook for actually $5.7m AAV for the next three years. SportTrac and Cots both have this (and I checked in another thread as well to triple check this). If he cost nothing against the AAV, fine, no problems, good move. But that's not the case. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/

This virtually guarantees that he will be traded to a team that doesn't care about AAV, since he will be free to them. I wouldn't worry about the Sox wasting any cap space on Hosmer this year.

I am also pretty sure JBJ's buyout does not count toward 2023, it was all covered last year since it was guaranteed money.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

This virtually guarantees that he will be traded to a team that doesn't care about AAV, since he will be free to them. I wouldn't worry about the Sox wasting any cap space on Hosmer this year.

I am also pretty sure JBJ's buyout does not count toward 2023, it was all covered last year since it was guaranteed money.

I truly hope you're right, because if Hosmer is seen as the DH (or 1b and Casas at DH) that is, not ideal. I however promise not to complain about Hosmer again until the start of the season (I'll assume you're right and we trade him) since unlike free agency, it's still very early for trades.

 

[mikcou]

Eric Hosmer's AAV doesn't matter to a team well below the threshold so they should be able to trade him for a small asset, & he's free, & they got prospects they liked more than Groome in the deal, who were further away from needing to be on the 40-man. I don't understand the angst. Plus he's buddies with Casas.

Schwarber is a bad defensive player no matter where he plays defense.

I dont think they like the prospects better than Groome as players. They didnt need to get added so thats nice, but the consensus at the time was Groome was the best prospect in the trade (and the best prospect that the Sox traded or received at the deadline). The 40 man spot is nice, but I'd rather have Groome than say Connor Seabold who is not a major league starter and the fastball would need to play up significantly in the pen to be a good non-fungible reliever.

Thats not to say that they shouldnt have done that deal - the assets on each side are noise and getting a guy who was competent at 1B made sense.

 

[chawson]

Put him in LF then, we do have a small left field in terms of ground to cover. We had an opening there too (well, as much as we do for Yoshida), in that we move Verdugo to RF. I actually like the Yoshida signing, but I'd rather have the next 3 years of Schwarber in LF at $20m than 5 of Yoshida at $19m.

It'll be interesting to revisit this. I was a big fan of keeping Schwarber but I'm cautiously optimistic about Yoshida. If his plate discipline is as good as advertised and he's one of those rare Steven Kwan/Luis Arraez/Yandy Diaz types, that's incredibly valuable (and a fun player).

Schwarber hits bombs and is one of those rare players who almost never chases pitches out of the zone and still strikes out 200+ times a year. In this era of absurd pitch movement, I genuinely wonder which hitting style ages better.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Question about projections: Do they take rule changes into consideration?

Seems to me that (please correct me)

A. Speed is going to play bigger (combined with OBP, of course) with the new pickoff rule and base sizes.

B. LHH will improve without a short right fielder

C. Strikeouts will become even more important as keeping the bat off the ball becomes more critical (particularly with relievers?)

D. Defense, in general, will play a bigger role with revised alignments (also catcher’s arm)

In short, projecting performance based on a slightly different game the past years must have some questions?

 

[Rovin Romine]

This ... I continue to be befuddled by posts that suggest that the players involved might have minds of their own. That why the stuff about being in "heavy discussion" with a free agent, then being mad when he signs elsewhere, are so inherently funny. Players aren't turning down the Red Sox; they choosing to play elsewhere.

Yeah, but that almost sounds like they're rejecting, you know, us. Which is flatly impossible. So it stands to reason that Bloom and the F.O. must be clownshoeing their way through all of this, and, you know, probably insulting these guys left and right with their offers.

 

[Apisith]

I hope Walter su

I will take my rose-colored shot:

Starting Pitching:
1) Sale
2) Eovaldi (I think he signs a 1 year deal somewhere around the QO mark)
3) Pivetta
4) Paxton
5) Bello
6) Whitlock

I actually really like this staff. I am probably on the crazy side, but I think that Paxton is going to have a monster year this season, and I think by the end Red Sox fans will be in love with him for what he gave us for $10M.

Bullpen:
CL: Jansen
Martin
Schrieber
Barnes
Houck
Brasier
Kelly
German

I actually like this bullpen, too. Jansen and Martin allow them to slot the other guys where they need them and maybe not run Schrieber into the ground like last year. It's a pretty deep pen, and should also be able to help with load management for the starters to try to keep them healthy. I do worry about Jansen with the pitch clock, though.

Catchers:
McGuire (L)
Wong (R)

I think they are probably done here, but would not be surprised to see them add someone like Sanchez to primarily be a DH but backup at catcher when needed. I also wouldn't be opposed to seeing them sign someone like Hedges, who is a solid pitch framer, though his noodle bat doesn't lengthen the lineup.

Infield:
1B: Casas (L)/Hosmer (R)
2B: Story (R)
3B: Devers (L)
SS:

IF Bench:
Arroyo (R)
Dalbec (R)

SS is obviously the big question mark. I am a fan of Swanson so would love him on a not-ridiculous deal (I like the 6/$160 that has been mentioned), but I think someone is going to go to the moon for him. They could slot Hernandez or Story there, but I think both of them are more valuable at CF/2B respectively. I would also be okay with Iglesias, who isn't what he once was defensively, but who puts the ball in play (95% in K% and Whiff%), which could be useful for a team that I think is going to have some strikeout problems. He also has some speed. I think this is probably who they end up with, much to the chagrin of many.

Outfield:
LF: Verdugo (L)/Yoshida (L)
CF: Hernandez (R)
RF:

Bench: Refsnyder

I think they need another free agent signing here, assuming they actually want to be competitive in the AL. If they fill RF with a trade (assuming at least one of Verdugo/Dalbec and/or one of Houck/Whitlock would move in that deal), then it would prevent a depth addition, so while I think it is possible, I think they go the free agent route. The names still available don't really inspire confidence, and I wish I thought Verdugo would take a step forward because it would make signing a league avrage-ish bat for a corner outfield position more palatable. I will say that I really want nothing to do with Gallo here, and I really don't think they are dead set on a right handed bat. Any of Benintendi/Myers/Brantley/Pollock make sense if you squint, but they might be too expensive for the production you can actually expect from them, and I really think the goal is going to be to get a starter and a utility guy here. I am going to guess they end up with David Peralta and one of the four mentioned in the previous sentence. Tha would also move Yoshida to mostly DH.

Primary Lineup:
Hernandez
Yoshida (assuming relative success)
Devers
Story
Verdugo
Casas
Peralta (or other FA)
McGuire/Wong
Iglesias

That's not a terrible team.

Replace Eovaldi with Houck, and sign another good arm for the 'pen, and I'm with you. Houck's likely to be better than Eovaldi IMO, simply because Eovaldi's fastball dropped post-injury and he got hit hard. Houck has been very good as a starter, he's struggled the third time through the order but if he can give us 5 solid innings every 5 days, we'll win a lot of games. I can also see a world where Paxton gives us above average 120-150 innings, and we'll give him a QO at the end of the year. The rotation, with better injury luck than last year, is likely to be above average. With better infield defense, Bello is also looking like a very high quality starter, almost a sneaky ace. I'm betting he gets the opening day start 2024. There's potential for upside from the AAA starters as well. Crawford was good pre-injury, Winckowski has the required velocity, but needs to add pitch which is doable. Whitlock added one two years ago. Bello also added one last year.

Given the 40-man and prospect situation, we're becoming the Rays IMO. Our offense will be anemic from time to time, but the pitching will be very good. That'll be a change from the last 20 years of elite offense. It'll be different to watch but it doesn't mean we won't compete. We'll have to wait until Meyer, Yorke et al graduate to become an elite offense again.

 

[radsoxfan]

I'm trying to warm up to the Swanson idea (though doubt we will get him anyway).

Using this offseason model, why don't they offer him something like 10/200? Maybe that's not enough? Someone can do the math, but present day value with current interest rates probably isn't too different than a 5 or 6 year deal for 160 or so. Many other teams seem to be leveraging current economics into long term deals with low-ish AAV, are the Red Sox opposed to that?

I just don't see a lot of paths to improve the team at this point and selling the farm seems like a panic move more likely to do harm than good.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1604280786429120518?s=46&t=9e2aOHu1rsFEecMfweTGhw


Must read from Stats that sums it all up perfectly.

 

[JCizzle]

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1604280786429120518?s=46&t=9e2aOHu1rsFEecMfweTGhw


Must read from Stats that sums it all up perfectly.

Absolutely. This really struck me.

Over the summer they amended their messaging from, “they are cornerstones, we want Bogaerts and Devers here forever,” to, “we want Bogaerts and Devers here, on deals that make sense for both sides, but we know that people are sick of hearing us say that until deals are signed.” Then it was we are still are going to make a run at the playoffs, followed by the Red Sox are ready to spend this winter, then the endless Bogaerts is Option A talking point, then they sweetened their offers, then it was adding multiple number 2 starters, then the adding 7-8-9 players, and now it’s on to impacting the club with trades and that the team is going to surprise in 2023 (you're the Boston Red Sox with the highest fan costs in baseball, you shouldn’t have to surprise anyone, you should be fucking awesome) and they want to be a competitive team going forward. Great. People get mad that John Henry doesn’t talk to reporters, but hearing the front office talk for the last year has turned from encouraging to borderline nauseating.

 

[Auger34]

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1604280786429120518?s=46&t=9e2aOHu1rsFEecMfweTGhw


Must read from Stats that sums it all up perfectly.

Was coming to post this exact article.

And I want to make one thing clear: Stats has been overwhelmingly pro-Bloom his entire tenure.

I look forward to the crazy “Bloomers” (credit to @John Marzano Olympic Hero there) trying to make this look positive.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Bad news for the org when they’ve lost Red Sox Stats.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

Where are the best free online defensive stats?

For example, if I was wondering whether Jurickson Profar is a competent shortstop, where should I look?

I look at baseball reference/dwar and baseball savant's line chart and fangraphs WAR rankings.

Where else should I be looking?

 

[jon abbey]

Where are the best free online defensive stats?

For example, if I was wondering whether Jurickson Profar is a competent shortstop, where should I look?

I look at baseball reference/dwar and baseball savant's line chart and fangraphs WAR rankings.

Where else should I be looking?

The Fielding Bible's DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) stat I think is the best one currently:

https://fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard

 

[Apisith]

Someone talk me out of Profar? He seems to be a very good fit, relative to the remaining options. Positionally versatile even if not very good in the infield. High walk rate, would lengthen the lineup. Won’t cost too much in years or AAV. Would benefit from the shift being gone quite a lot (.345 wOBA not shifted v .301 shifted, he was shifted 64% of the time hitting L). Won’t cost a pick, will still keep us under the tax level.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I dunno, Profar is 31 and a career 238 / 322 / 386. He’s never had an 800 OPS. If he can play SS, maybe, but he hasn’t done that in 4 years. I don’t really see the appeal here.

 

[Coachster]

I dunno, Profar is 31 and a career 238 / 322 / 386. He’s never had an 800 OPS. If he can play SS, maybe, but he hasn’t done that in 4 years. I don’t really see the appeal here.

That’s easy. Would you rather have Profar, or have to depend on Arroyo to play 150 games?

 

[TimScribble]

Wrong thread

 

[mikeford]

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1604280786429120518?s=46&t=9e2aOHu1rsFEecMfweTGhw


Must read from Stats that sums it all up perfectly.

SoxScout is still too optimistic here. They won't be bad? Why won't they? They have 1 starting pitcher whos a decent bet to stay healthy and 1 who probably will but he's basically a rookie who knows. The other 3 guys are all hospital cases every year.

This roster has a chance to be one of the worst Red Sox teams we've seen in like 20 years unless Chaim Bloom pulls several rabbits out of a hat a this point and quite frankly I don't think he's worth a shit as a magician.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

The Fielding Bible's DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) stat I think is the best one currently:

https://fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard

Thanks. And, not to undercut any suspense, but, based on those four sources, Profar is not a competent shortstop.

Carry on.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

SoxScout is still too optimistic here. They won't be bad? Why won't they? They have 1 starting pitcher whos a decent bet to stay healthy and 1 who probably will but he's basically a rookie who knows. The other 3 guys are all hospital cases every year.

This roster has a chance to be one of the worst Red Sox teams we've seen in like 20 years unless Chaim Bloom pulls several rabbits out of a hat a this point and quite frankly I don't think he's worth a shit as a magician.

This season, like last season, like every season... success depends on the health of the starting pitchers. While Chris Sale's contract is the gift that keeps giving, I'm not sure how to construct a rotation around him that can withstand the potential of him imploding again. Whitlock and Houck can help as pitchers who can start games and pitch in relief. But, he is the very shaky lynch pin to this team. Again.

 

[chawson]

I dunno, Profar is 31 and a career 238 / 322 / 386. He’s never had an 800 OPS. If he can play SS, maybe, but he hasn’t done that in 4 years. I don’t really see the appeal here.

Thanks. And, not to undercut any suspense, but, based on those four sources, Profar is not a competent shortstop.

Carry on.

He’s a competent 2B and Story is a good shortstop. Profar is an above-average player and he’s not yet 30. Signing him to play 2B (and elsewhere when Arroyo starts) looks like a very good move.

All the concern about Story’s arm seems overblown, and likely originated from a fear of losing Bogaerts. Story averaged 79.1 mph on throws from shortstop in the 2021 season, when he was hurt. Swanson’s average throw from shortstop last year was 79.2 mph, and he graded out as an elite +9 DRS and +20 OAA.

 

[mikeford]

This season, like last season, like every season... success depends on the health of the starting pitchers. While Chris Sale's contract is the gift that keeps giving, I'm not sure how to construct a rotation around him that can withstand the potential of him imploding again. Whitlock and Houck can help as pitchers who can start games and pitch in relief. But, he is the very shaky lynch pin to this team. Again.

Can they though? Both of them got hurt last year. Whitlock got hurt the year before too. I can't say I put too much faith in this idea we can just bounce guys back and forth between roles like that. History has not born that out for anyone but Julian Tavarez and Tim Wakefield.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

He’s a competent 2B and Story is a good shortstop. Profar is an above-average player and he’s not yet 30. Signing him to play 2B (and elsewhere when Arroyo starts) looks like a very good move.

All the concern about Story’s arm seems overblown, and likely originated from a fear of losing Bogaerts. Story averaged 79.1 mph on throws from shortstop in the 2021 season, when he was hurt. Swanson’s average throw from shortstop last year was 79.2 mph, and he graded out as an elite +9 DRS and +20 OAA.

I've posted a number of times about his ongoing injuries to his throwing arm/elbow... that lead to a change in throwing motion... that lead to reduced velocity. That reduced velocity impacted his defense in his last year at SS.

Watching him play a fantastic 2B last year, a position that appears to accommodate his reduced velocity, and which will be more important next year with no shift, makes me hesitant to move him back to short. But, the Sox front office knows a lot more than I do.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

Can they though? Both of them got hurt last year. Whitlock got hurt the year before too. I can't say I put too much faith in this idea we can just bounce guys back and forth between roles like that. History has not born that out for anyone but Julian Tavarez and Tim Wakefield.

I'd like to have them both prepare to start and be in a hybrid role to begin the season (alternating starts). I think that would provide maximum flexibility, but would probably require signing at least one more starter. For some reason the brain trust has not yet acted on my half dozen brilliant trade proposals, so, maybe they'll just resign Rich Hill.

 

[chawson]

I've posted a number of times about his ongoing injuries to his throwing arm/elbow... that lead to a change in throwing motion... that lead to reduced velocity. That reduced velocity impacted his defense in his last year at SS.

Watching him play a fantastic 2B last year, a position that appears to accomodate his reduced velocity, makes me hesitant to move him back to short. But, the Sox front office knows a lot more than I do.

Right, I’ve been following and it’s possible this is still the case. Or maybe he’s healed? I also prefer him at second base from what we know, but he seems confident he can do it.

My preference at this point is Adames, though who knows if the Brewers are selling, and adding Yoshida probably precludes any deal based around Yelich.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Right, I’ve been following and it’s possible this is still the case. Or maybe he’s healed? I also prefer him at second base from what we know, but he seems confident he can do it.

My preference at this point is Adames, though who knows if the Brewers are selling, and adding Yoshida probably precludes any deal based around Yelich.

Do you have a feel for whether or not Yelich could handle RF in Fenway?

 

[chawson]

Do you have a feel for whether or not Yelich could handle RF in Fenway?

He graded out as a -5 in left field last year and the strength is low (81.8 mph average, ranking 152 of 156 qualified outfielders per Savant). Seems unideal, especially in Fenway.

I probably wouldn’t mind splitting him with Yoshida at LF/DH. Verdugo is also not ideal for RF but doesn’t seem as bad, or maybe you swap him out somehow.

Yoshida - LF
Story - 2B
Yelich - DH
Devers - 3B
Adames - SS
Casas - 1B
Hernández - CF
Verdugo - RF
McGuire - C

Too left-handed but that could be ironed out with the right Verdugo deal. Or maybe you add Profar (switch-hitter; 87 mph arm, which is better than average) to split RF with Refsnyder.

 

[mikcou]

He’s a competent 2B and Story is a good shortstop. Profar is an above-average player and he’s not yet 30. Signing him to play 2B (and elsewhere when Arroyo starts) looks like a very good move.

All the concern about Story’s arm seems overblown, and likely originated from a fear of losing Bogaerts. Story averaged 79.1 mph on throws from shortstop in the 2021 season, when he was hurt. Swanson’s average throw from shortstop last year was 79.2 mph, and he graded out as an elite +9 DRS and +20 OAA.

He's been all over the place and hes definitely not an every day second basemen. He can play a bunch of positions, but doesnt play any of them well. He was also horrid in 2021; I wouldnt be at all confident that hes an above average player - 2022 was the first time that occurred ever since his 2012 debut.

If he could actually play RF well, he'd be interesting, but he cant. If he signs for little, whatever, but he doesnt do much for anything. Even with Arroyo's injury history, I wouldn't want to commit to playing Profar over him - Arroyo has actual plus defense at second and an average bat.

 

[radsoxfan]

Profar's age 29 season in SD would be a pretty good outcome for 29 year old Yoshida in 2023. Decent D, solid OBP, 15 HR, 3 WAR.

Fangraphs expected 3/30 for Profar this offseason. Maybe with the other deals, he gets a bit more than that? Not a ton of other places left to get upgrades so if Bloom thinks he has a defensive spot, maybe they take a shot? Doubt he can handle RF though and not sure he's much an IF anymore.

This is getting sad, like the guy in the fantasy football auction draft stuck with all his money but no one decent left to bid on.

 

[OCD SS]

To answer the question posed by the thread title: 2023 looks like a bridge year (and maybe beyond that).

 

[jon abbey]

This is getting sad, like the guy in the fantasy football auction draft stuck with all his money but no one decent left to bid on.

I think it’s tricky to pull off well, but I think Bloom is planning on using that ‘cap space’ to take on unwanted players from other teams, more elaborate versions of the Ottavino deal of a couple seasons ago. The Mets are the most obvious partner here but there should be others too.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I’d like Profar on a 4/$40m type of deal. He provides a lot of insurance and has ranged offensively from pretty good to a little below average in his time as a full time player. He’s not great, but we’ve obviously missed on adding (retaining) great players this off-season, so now we’re at the “what might not suck” portion of roster construction, realistically.

That said, I love the idea of Adames far more.

However, I can’t really see what Bloom would offer for him, but that is a player whom (for me at least) would go a long way toward making this a decent off-season. Taking on Yelich to acquire Adames would be of interest to me, but I have no idea how realistic that is. But the 6/$144m hit would be worth it to go from “no core middle infielder next to Story” to “two pretty good MI and middle of the order bats”. I also think Yelich would do well as a DH in a 110 OPS+ with some upside kind of way.

I don’t think that is nearly enough for the Brewers to deal Adames, though, so I don’t think he’s necessarily realistic because it depends on another GM making a mistake or Bloom dealing prospects. But he’s a really good young middle infielder whom would be a good piece of a core to build around.

 

[YTF]

I’d like Profar on a 4/$40m type of deal. He provides a lot of insurance and has ranged offensively from pretty good to a little below average in his time as a full time player. He’s not great, but we’ve obviously missed on adding (retaining) great players this off-season, so now we’re at the “what might not suck” portion of roster construction, realistically.

That said, I love the idea of Adames far more.

However, I can’t really see what Bloom would offer for him, but that is a player whom (for me at least) would go a long way toward making this a decent off-season. Taking on Yelich to acquire Adames would be of interest to me, but I have no idea how realistic that is. But the 6/$144m hit would be worth it to go from “no core middle infielder next to Story” to “two pretty good MI and middle of the order bats”. I also think Yelich would do well as a DH in a 110 OPS+ with some upside kind of way.

I don’t think that is nearly enough for the Brewers to deal Adames, though, so I don’t think he’s necessarily realistic because it depends on another GM making a mistake or Bloom dealing prospects. But he’s a really good young middle infielder whom would be a good piece of a core to build around.

Bringing in Adames might also send a slightly more positive message to Devers about the direction of the team. Like you said though, it's hard to see what Bloom could offer in return and if Yelich can't turn things around even slighly for a couple of seasons that $24M per for 6 years is going to be tough to carry.

 

[jbupstate]

He’s a competent 2B and Story is a good shortstop. Profar is an above-average player and he’s not yet 30. Signing him to play 2B (and elsewhere when Arroyo starts) looks like a very good move.

All the concern about Story’s arm seems overblown, and likely originated from a fear of losing Bogaerts. Story averaged 79.1 mph on throws from shortstop in the 2021 season, when he was hurt. Swanson’s average throw from shortstop last year was 79.2 mph, and he graded out as an elite +9 DRS and +20 OAA.

I think this was referenced in an article The Athletic. I thought it was a typo on Swanson’s average throw. But the article also noted that Swanson was 48 out of 52.

After continually reading that Story has a noodle arm I have to question the narrative that Story cannot play shortstop. How can Swanson be considered elite and warrant a huge contract with such a “terrible” arm?

I do not see why Story cannot play above average shortstop for the Red Sox. If there is an arm injury waiting happen it’s going to happen if he plays 2B. A 78 mph throw from SS or 2B is still a 78 mph throw.

I have no idea how 82 mph versus 78 mph translates on outs at first. But can occasionally see how lack of range at SS impacts ground ball pitchers.

Can it be true? + range/- arm > - range/avg arm

If Story can play SS the Sox should roll Arroyo and his plus defense at 2B. That’s a very good up the middle defense and decent offense.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

To answer the question posed by the thread title: 2023 looks like a bridge year (and maybe beyond that).

Wait, I thought 2020 was supposed to be a bridge year. And then 2021. And then 2022.

Seems more like a pier than a bridge to me.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Bringing in Adames might also send a slightly more positive message to Devers about the direction of the team. Like you said though, it's hard to see what Bloom could offer in return and if Yelich can't turn things around even slighly for a couple of seasons that $24M per for 6 years is going to be tough to carry.

Agree on the Devers front. Regarding his extension, if to him it’s “just business” then if we make a market rate offer now, I think he takes it.

However, if there is any emotional element to his decision, at present, I would take nothing the Red Sox put in front of me. He’s already banked (assuming an arb award / settlement of at least $15m) over $33m in his career. Is that $300m, no. Is that “taking care of generations wealth” for any of his children and grandchildren, assuredly. I’d see that all my buddies have left, and say “thanks for the $30m and the ring - see ya at the bottom of the standings.”

At BEST - I’d say I’ll take market rate but not a cent less. It’s a business and I don’t buy for one second taking a discount to “build a better roster around me” because every single impact player is off the board. You’ve shown an unwillingness to spend that money on other impact talent.

At least a trade for a player like Adames shows an attempt to build a core around him first. Adding guys for short term, like Segura, Turner, Kluber shows nothing beyond 2023 and maybe 2024.

To be clear, no idea on Devers mindset. But if there is any emotion involved at all, he’d at best be “seriously questioning” the direction of the franchise, so forget any discount. At best he’d “accept” market rate from the Sox just like he would if the “Royals” or “Pirates” suddenly up and offered.

 

[Coachster]

I have to say I love it when we talk about trading for somebody like Adames.

WE HAVE NOBODY TO OFFER THEM (that won't weaken the shaky foundation we've already established.)

Hey, Milwaukee, give us your 4.4 WAR shortstop.... and we'll give you Josh Winckowski!

Oh, you want us to take the crappy contract of Christian Yellich? OK, we'll give you Alex Verdugo, which (although he's not very good at it....) leaves us a huge hole in right field.

Patch patch patch.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I don’t want Yelichs contract unless it’s heavily subsidized.

It also seems like Bloom had said no Mayer, Bello, Casas on everything.

I think, at this point, extend Devers and retain ultimate financial flexibility for the Devers-Casas-Mayer core of 2025-2028.

I hate it, but I truly don’t see a path to championship team without moving those guys.

 

[Max Power]

I have to say I love it when we talk about trading for somebody like Adames.

WE HAVE NOBODY TO OFFER THEM (that won't weaken the shaky foundation we've already established.)

Hey, Milwaukee, give us your 4.4 WAR shortstop.... and we'll give you Josh Winckowski!

Oh, you want us to take the crappy contract of Christian Yellich? OK, we'll give you Alex Verdugo, which (although he's not very good at it....) leaves us a huge hole in right field.

Patch patch patch.

The biggest trade chips the team has are Houck, Verdugo, and Pivetta. I'd be against trading away Verdugo or Pivetta since that just opens up holes in other parts of the team you need to fill again, but Houck is pretty valuable. If you think he can be a starter, you're getting 5 years of a good arm on the cheap.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The biggest trade chips the team has are Houck, Verdugo, and Pivetta. I'd be against trading away Verdugo or Pivetta since that just opens up holes in other parts of the team you need to fill again, but Houck is pretty valuable. If you think he can be a starter, you're getting 5 years of a good arm on the cheap.

Aren’t all those guys needed for the big league club though? They are already a starter and OF short with those guys on the roster.

 

[YTF]

I have to say I love it when we talk about trading for somebody like Adames.

WE HAVE NOBODY TO OFFER THEM (that won't weaken the shaky foundation we've already established.)

Hey, Milwaukee, give us your 4.4 WAR shortstop.... and we'll give you Josh Winckowski!

Oh, you want us to take the crappy contract of Christian Yellich? OK, we'll give you Alex Verdugo, which (although he's not very good at it....) leaves us a huge hole in right field.

Patch patch patch.

I have to say that I love it when people here exaggerate discussions between others.