- Sep 30, 2007
It looks like the Dodgers are going to reset their tax level this year. If the best free agents are off the board then it also makes sense for us to reset our tax level this year. Even if we can't resign Devers, resetting the tax allows us to compete for him on the open market (and if we lose, at least get a good pick as compensation). It also allows us to compete for Machado - who's almost certain to opt out - and Ohtani. I mean, there's always next year. We shouldn't lock ourselves into a bad deal just because there aren't other options.
The teams that have spent the most this year (Yankees, Phillies, Padres) are all going to be way above the tax level come 2024, so maybe there's less competition for free agents next year.
I keep seeing this assumption that Machado is the 1b to Devers' 1a for whoever misses out on Raffy next winter. But is that really the case? Devers' only advantage is that he is younger. Not sure why SD would prefer Devers since Machado's played exceptionally well in that ballpark and there aren't any concerns about his ability to play 3B long term.If you don't see it coming... Machado opts out (assuming has good year) - that leaves third open in SD... who's a free agent and will be looking for similar $? Hate to say it but easy to slide Devers to SD and join the cool kids out west.
Machado (2020-2022): 147 OPS+; 15.0 bWAR
Devers (2020-2022): 132 OPS+; 8.7 bWAR
Machado's also been remarkably durable. The only season in which he's missed more than like 10 games is his age 21 season in 2014.