Houck? Trading him would go against what I think Chaim's MO is, although in the right trade, sure. But if anything they need more arms like his, not fewer.
What does 2023 look like?
- Thread starter moondog80
- Start date
I certainly hope they don't. Thrilled for Judge this year but have ZERO interest in us signing him for what it will take both in years and money. Save that money for Ohtani next year and I'd be all ears. Even Xander, as much as I love him, there has to be a limit.
Crawford, Winchowski and Seabold all have under 100 innings in the Majors. There should be a sticky posted on the front page of this forum warning people about small sample sizes. I am not saying that Crawford, Winchowski or Seabold are going to be the second coming of Pedro Martinez, but given that each of them looked promising at one point or another last season, is all the more reason the Sox should be comfortable having Bello in the rotation. That is to say nothing of guys like Mata and Walters who can also be used for depth.
Maybe. But is that Bloom’s MO? I’m not certain I have the timeline right, but I think Bloom was in TB when they dealt Liberatore for Arozarena, right?
That was a trade that sent out young pitching, but it was a heist for TB.
Let’s not forget Thaddeus Ward, who I’d rank above Winckowski or Seabold.
Some of those guys might be relievers — e.g. Mata — but we need relievers, too.
If the Red Sox add 2 more starters and Bello is #6 on the depth chart, and all 5 other starters are healthy up until say July, then yes Bello would stay in AAA. If, as in your hypothetical, come July all 5 are still healthy and say Pivetta is just pitching poorly then you make a move to put the 5 best starters out there. The odds that all 5 starters stay healthy for the entire season is very low even for an ordinary rotation, much less with the pitchers we actually have. I don't want Bello to be pitching in Worcester, I want him up and pitching in Boston. I just don't want a repeat of July 2022. Merely having the option of demoting Bello is valuable because Bloom can go to work this offseason acquiring 5 starters not named Bello without having to worry about DFAing someone if everyone is ready to start the season. I am guessing all of this will be moot since not everyone is going to stay healthy and Bello will end up pitching most of the season in Boston anyway (which is better than having those innings go to Winckowski).
The Red Sox have about $86 million in space under the tax after the arbitration projections and without Bogaerts, Pham, or Paxton.
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxpayroll/status/1579530782263382016?s=20&t=9L1cGmPEznxGTaB6jXzEgA
This note is pretty funny given all of the proclamations that Bello has definitely made it as a major league starter based upon 57 innings.
Yeah, this. At least Bello is a legit prospect, though. Seabold, Winckowski, Crawford really aren’t. They are JAG’s, but our JAG’s! Sure we all hope they are good but should we count on it? Looking at the teams they are competing with, I think the Sox need to add some talent. If the biggest fear is a staff of guys pitching well while Bello dominates in Worcester, I think I can live with that.
If Boston spends a bunch of money acquiring two new starters, and puts Bello in Worcester to stagnate for depth, and all five starters get injured within a month, we’re getting a repeat of July 22. Literally.
Bello has had success against major league hitters. More than that, he clearly improved against MLB hitters as the year progressed. The others are likely AAAA guys, but that’s what you get from spots 6-8 in your rotation. Legitimate middle of the rotation starters don’t sign to play in the minors.
Crawford was decent enough last year. Winckowski had a few good starts and then was terrible; all of Seabolds starts were bad. If they had avoided all of Seabolds starts and half of Winckowski’s, wouldn’t the team have been better? Of course you can’t build enough depth for a bunch of injuries at once but if Bello profiles as the #6 instead of the #5, not sure how that’s bad. Plenty of guys have looked great down the stretch and then not as good the next year (see Bobby Dalbec).
Is the idea that Bello is a lock in the rotation, no matter what? Or just depending on who else is acquired?
The Red Sox have holes/questions everywhere except the right side of the infield. They’re loaded with JAGs, they have a free agent SS that needs to be replaced, and a third baseman headed for free agency next winter that they desperately need to extend. Their OF is full of JAGs and there’s no relief in sight (Rafaela might prove to be more than a JAG, but he’s a 2024 guy). Given that they are probably going to have $60-$70 million to spend (after arbitration and addressing the SS situation {by hopefully re-signing Xander}), why would you bring back a bunch of JAGs to spend that money on pitching, sending Bello to Worcester, when you could use Bello’s cost controlled years to upgrade on the Phams cluttering their roster.
If all five starters get injured within a month, then you cannot avoid starts from Crawford, Winckowski, and Seabold. You will not be able to sign enough middle of the rotation starters to handle that.
IMO it seems like they are looking for makeup to inform this decision. Sure, Winckowski, Crawford and Seabold got called up out of sheer necessity, but in Bello's case where his ceiling is high, they are going to prioritize what he specifically needs. If he had shakier confidence that translated on the mound (e.g. not trusting this pitch or that), you would err in favor of more AAA time, but that's not how anyone talks about Bello. So unless he still needs to refine his command, then he might as well be up in the majors getting used to it.
Because their pitching staff produced results that were the second worst in the American league, and two of the teams best starters are free agents? Teams with lousy pitching don’t win. Fixing the staff doesn’t necessarily mean spending a ton of money, either. Identify and acquire the right players (easier said than done). But upgrading the rotation doesn’t just mean signing deGrom or Rodon or whomever.
I think Bello is likely to be an important part of the ‘23 staff, just think locking him into a rotation spot before it’s November is premature.
And working on the pitching doesn’t mean they don’t have to upgrade the offense.
It doesn't have to be all 5 starters getting injured at the same time to end up with Winck or Seabold getting significant starts. If Sale slips on a banana peel, or Whitlock doesn't show enough promise as a starter to keep him there, or god forbid the rookie pitcher struggles, or any of them have any of the very common bumps and bruises that happen to pitching staffs on every team, every year....you get there pretty quick.
FTFY - that s all I am saying. As to the rest, I am not sure who you think you are arguing against.
So that's $60 million left with 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 2 OF spots already filled and a decent pair of catchers. Why exactly shouldn't they spend some of that money on the rotation?
Well he went from 92 innings in 2021 to 153 last year. Maybe they hold him back in April and slowly work him in as a way to limit his innings?
I do say so. It's not like Crawford, Seabold, et al. are entirely useless. They've all had success at times in the majors, they're just lacking in consistency. That makes them perfect for depth starters and relievers. There's also Bryan Mata.
Our rotation would look something like this:
Sale, Whitlock, Bello, Pivetta, Free Agent
And our depth would look something like this:
Free agent, Seabold, Crawford, Mata, Winckowski, Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy
That's fine. It's potentially excellent depending on how much they get from Sale and how good Whitlock and Bello are with a full season starter's workload.
Sale, Eovaldi, Wacha, Bello, Whitlock would probably be an excellent rotation. I'm not entirely sure why you'd want to bump Bello for Pivetta.
I think the main reason (but not necessarily a great reason) Pivetta would get the nod over Bello in such a situation is that Bello has options and Pivetta does not. I suspect that if those were indeed the rotation candidates to open the season, we'd most likely see Whitlock pushed to the pen with both Pivetta and Bello starting.
Because everyone got injured at once and they only had one Brayan Bello. Even using your dream plan, if the same thing happens next year the results are going to be exactly the same, because they’d still only have one Brayan Bello.
The OF sucks. It’s literally terrible. One of their corner OFs combines Hunter Renfroe’s defense with dead average offense. Kiké will hopefully be healthy next year. And if they don’t spend some of that money on re-upping Devers now, rather than on aging/expensive pitching, we’re going to see Rafi traded at the deadline because the money to extend him has already spent on a position where it doesn’t need to be.
Or the two high priced rotation guys of your dreams spend next year keeping Sale company on the DL. The entire idea in modern baseball is to use the young, cost-controlled guys to upgrade the rest of the roster. And in their case one of the guys they need to upgrade is young and cost controlled. Just not very good. Bello, on other hand, is.
I am not entirely sure why you’d sign Wacha to bump Pivetta; but i think we are in agreement that the team needs to add at least two starters (in your scenario, it’s Wacha and Eovaldi).
Regardless, it does seem like the consensus is that the Sox pitching staff will be counting on improvement / health from the pitchers they had last season, and potentially not adding help from outside the org?
Bello is going to be a stud next year. Mark my words.
This conversation is ridiculous. It's like some people can't recognize skill levels.
This conversation is ridiculous. It's like some people can't recognize skill levels.
Is there anyone who isn’t high on Bello here? Bello as depth to enter spring training does not mean that he doesn’t break camp with the team. Guys are gonna get hurt; and as we saw this past season, it’s really hard to find depth in the middle of a season. Entering the season with Bello (and / or Whitlock) as depth doesn’t mean they won’t play key roles.
I'm saying that there are no pitchers at a decent price available. He is not depth. Other pitchers will be in that role.
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Agree Bello is not "depth," but "no available pitchers at a decent price?" What's a decent price? DeGrom and Verlander are going to cost too much, but Rodon and Bassitt could be available for $20-$25 million/year.
I think the starting rotaition will be an area of strength without having to spend much money. (Injury luck caveat)
The bullpen and the outfield and Xander are higher priorities.
And again, Bello is going to be a top of the rotation guy.
The relevant point is that you’re going to need to spend that sort of money to upgrade on Bello, which is why you thank your lucky stars that you have Bello and use that money to fix the OF and extend Rafi.
There are lots of ways to acquire impact players; it doesn’t necessarily have to be by spending a ton of money. Regardless, who do you think they will spend the money on in the OF? Judge seems like a pipe dream. That leaves Nimmo, maybe Trea, Conforto? Brantley? Gallo? Pederson? Not a lot of compelling options out there.
Someone better than Pham. Preferably in Right, so Verdugo can go back to left where he belongs.
Nimmo looks interesting. High OBP and a decent glove I think? (I was called out for not knowing what team he was on last week, so I'm obviously not too knowledgeable.)
Nimmo looks interesting. High OBP and a decent glove I think? (I was called out for not knowing what team he was on last week, so I'm obviously not too knowledgeable.)
A couple of solid bullpen guys would be good too. I'm not looking to upgrade on Bello. But I think the rotation needs another "ace" considering Sale is a question mark. If Sale returns to form, great, then we have two aces.
Yeah, Nimmo looks like the best fit to me, imagine he will have quite a few suitors. Trea is interesting if he can still play the OF; hai flexibility is intriguing. But seems like the top few OF are gonna get paid and the drop off after that is pretty steep. Signing Nimmo, Bogaerts, and reupping Devers…$$$
I still like Haniger as an option. Little better fielder than Nimmo, good power, and is maybe looking for a bounce back contact.
People keep looking past the fact that Devers and Bogaerts are looking to be extended. They need to solve the corner outfield issue, hopefully add at least one quality arms in the rotation AND one or two good arms in the pen. The team also needs to mind the money being committed for future seasons. Yep, lots of money coming off the books but it's not as much as most here think it is in terms of what it's going to buy. Bello in the rotation lessens the need to spend big on two starters and leaves money to be allocated elsewhere.
I think Nimmo is going to be overpriced, considering he'll be 30 next year, has played in more than 90 games only twice in the last seven years and never hit more than 17 home runs.
Maybe that will help with not being overpriced? I don't know his injury history, but he played 151 regular season games this year.
I agree, but isn’t that kind of the problem with having a lot of money to spend in free agency….most free agents are 29 or older, and going to be poor value. But when you need high ceiling players, what’s the alternative? If the Sox avoid signing any players who are likely to be overpriced or who want deals that are too long, they probably won’t be all that good.
To start another conversation: if Bogaerts' asks are beyond what makes sense for the club, is there any chance we could pry Ha-Seong Kim from San Diego? He's not a Bogaerts-level offensive player so far (well, he was in KBO), but he looks like a plus defender who is useful on offense. The Dads should have Tatis Jr. and Cronenworth holding down the middle infield, at least until Tatis, Jr. injures himself in a freak helicopter accident or something, so they may wish to cash in on a guy on a valuable contract who is probably overqualified for a bench role.
(To be clear, Bogaerts would be my Plan A, but I wouldn't want to give him $200m.)
Kim is on a sensible $7m AAV deal through 2024, after which he still has two seasons of team control at a salary TBD by the arb process. That suits the probable Mayer timeline pretty nicely, I'd think.
On the field, he's a great defender at SS by dWAR and OAA. He's had one poor offensive season (202/.270/.352 on a .241 BABIP) and one pretty good one (.251/.325/.383 on a .290 BABIP). The contact quality matched the results each season, so I don't think the low BABIP in '21 was fluky. He also improved on K% and BB%, so I think he was just adjusting to the league. He's better against lefties, but playable against righties. Pretty good contact skills; not at all a barrel monster, but has a bit of pop; pretty fast runner. He hits a fair amount of moderate depth fly-balls to left field, so Fenway could boost both his BABIP and SLG a bit, especially coming from the cavernous and sometimes fogged in parks of the NL West.
FWIW, a ~100 OPS+ starting SS who is a 2 wins up on defense is a ~4 win player; if he were a sure thing to produce that line, he wouldn't be available at a price we'd want to pay.
Such an acquisition would make sense in a context where we were adding bigger bats in the OF and DH. Dude was a beast in KBO, so there may be some more offensive upside in there, but I think his 107 OPS+ in 2022 is probably a decent baseline going forward.
BTV thinks Houck could return him straight up, which I think is probably about right, not as a proposed package, but as a gauge of value.
(To be clear, Bogaerts would be my Plan A, but I wouldn't want to give him $200m.)
Kim is on a sensible $7m AAV deal through 2024, after which he still has two seasons of team control at a salary TBD by the arb process. That suits the probable Mayer timeline pretty nicely, I'd think.
On the field, he's a great defender at SS by dWAR and OAA. He's had one poor offensive season (202/.270/.352 on a .241 BABIP) and one pretty good one (.251/.325/.383 on a .290 BABIP). The contact quality matched the results each season, so I don't think the low BABIP in '21 was fluky. He also improved on K% and BB%, so I think he was just adjusting to the league. He's better against lefties, but playable against righties. Pretty good contact skills; not at all a barrel monster, but has a bit of pop; pretty fast runner. He hits a fair amount of moderate depth fly-balls to left field, so Fenway could boost both his BABIP and SLG a bit, especially coming from the cavernous and sometimes fogged in parks of the NL West.
FWIW, a ~100 OPS+ starting SS who is a 2 wins up on defense is a ~4 win player; if he were a sure thing to produce that line, he wouldn't be available at a price we'd want to pay.
Such an acquisition would make sense in a context where we were adding bigger bats in the OF and DH. Dude was a beast in KBO, so there may be some more offensive upside in there, but I think his 107 OPS+ in 2022 is probably a decent baseline going forward.
BTV thinks Houck could return him straight up, which I think is probably about right, not as a proposed package, but as a gauge of value.
I would love Kim but I doubt the Padres move him this offseason with Tatis' suspension going well into next year.
Since San Diego played 12 postseason games, Tatis will only miss the first 20 games of the 2023 season.
There's no way we aren't staffing at least five starters in addition to Bello. Even if Sale is completely healthy, he's going to have an extremely reduced workload and likely wouldn't be much counted on for the playoffs. He was already tiring down the stretch in 2018-19, and since then he's thrown a total of 49 innings.
I love moving Whitlock to the rotation, but we probably also can't count on him to handle a full starter's workload coming off a 78 IP season.
I think Bello is likely to be one of the team's best starters next year, but since we badly need to fill those innings, it makes sense to notionally consider him a #6.
Sox starters threw 807 IP last year. They threw 871 in 2018. They threw 951 in 2017. Let's aim for 850 from the 2023 crew:
Sale - 120
Hill - 120
Whitlock - 120
Bello - 150
Pivetta - 175
Total: 685
So, you'd need a 165 IP starter to make up that gap and stay away from the JAGs, which is a really healthy single-season total these days. I'd say it's unlikely that those innings come from Crawford, Paxton or Winckowski. And that assumes that Hill returning is a sure bet, which it might not be.
Here's the catch, though. Whoever that 165 IP guy is, he can't exactly bump Bello to Worcester, because you need his innings to come at the major league level. Otherwise, you're replacing more MLB innings. Bello is unlikely to throw much more than 160 IP in a completely healthy season. It's rare for a 24-year old to throw that many innings in a season -- only 32 have done it since 2017.
And then there's the playoffs, which I'd say we're likelier than not to make next year. That rotation is not well built for a playoff run even if everyone is completely healthy, should we make it that far, because of various inning restrictions.
Honestly, it makes a lot of sense to have a six-man rotation (cough, cough, Shohei?).
I love moving Whitlock to the rotation, but we probably also can't count on him to handle a full starter's workload coming off a 78 IP season.
I think Bello is likely to be one of the team's best starters next year, but since we badly need to fill those innings, it makes sense to notionally consider him a #6.
Sox starters threw 807 IP last year. They threw 871 in 2018. They threw 951 in 2017. Let's aim for 850 from the 2023 crew:
Sale - 120
Hill - 120
Whitlock - 120
Bello - 150
Pivetta - 175
Total: 685
So, you'd need a 165 IP starter to make up that gap and stay away from the JAGs, which is a really healthy single-season total these days. I'd say it's unlikely that those innings come from Crawford, Paxton or Winckowski. And that assumes that Hill returning is a sure bet, which it might not be.
Here's the catch, though. Whoever that 165 IP guy is, he can't exactly bump Bello to Worcester, because you need his innings to come at the major league level. Otherwise, you're replacing more MLB innings. Bello is unlikely to throw much more than 160 IP in a completely healthy season. It's rare for a 24-year old to throw that many innings in a season -- only 32 have done it since 2017.
And then there's the playoffs, which I'd say we're likelier than not to make next year. That rotation is not well built for a playoff run even if everyone is completely healthy, should we make it that far, because of various inning restrictions.
Honestly, it makes a lot of sense to have a six-man rotation (cough, cough, Shohei?).
Kim would be a great target if things go that way. The defense is spectacular, and he was one of the best bat-to-ball hitters in the game last year. A lot of people would howl if we replaced Bogaerts for a .250-hitting shortstop with so-so pop, but that doesn't make it a bad idea.
I wonder if the Padres would actually be shopping a subsidized Tatis this offseason with an angle towards extending Soto.
I was listening to the Padres post-game radio show this morning and they had a nice rundown of some of the guys they might lose this offseason. There were a few intriguing names that I wonder if Bloom will explore (Kim is a good one, too, as Nvalvo pointed out).
Nick Martinez has likely outplayed his current contract and will likely be looking for a raise this offseason. If he opts out, I hope Bloom goes after him as a long relief guy/spot starter. He was really good for San Diego down the stretch.
Another name that came up was Jurickson Profar, who's been discussed elsewhere on the board. If he opts out, I think he fits the flexibility mold that Bloom seems to value, and he'd provide some pretty solid defense in the outfield.
Nick Martinez has likely outplayed his current contract and will likely be looking for a raise this offseason. If he opts out, I hope Bloom goes after him as a long relief guy/spot starter. He was really good for San Diego down the stretch.
Another name that came up was Jurickson Profar, who's been discussed elsewhere on the board. If he opts out, I think he fits the flexibility mold that Bloom seems to value, and he'd provide some pretty solid defense in the outfield.
This.
I'd love to hear an argument for throwing all of the money into pitching instead of the wiffle bat outfield.
"I don't trust prospects" is not a good foundation for policy.
The argument is that the team was 4th best in the AL at scoring runs and 2nd worst at allowing them. I know that doesn't match up to what it looked like watching them on a daily basis, but the pitching was a problem.
There's reason for optimism if Bello is good and Sale is healthy enough to pitch more than 5 innings, but the team needs one more top of the rotation starter. The depth is good enough internally. And the bullpen needs a dramatic overhaul.
My priority list for the offseason would be
1. Shortstop
2. Bullpen
3. Outfield
4. Another starter
But I don't think they can really compete unless they get someone good for all those positions, so the priority doesn't really matter.
And a crapload of those runs were produced by guys who might be leaving. Agreed that we have multiple holes to fill, including SP.
A big benefit of signing a starter is that doing so would improve the bullpen by allowing Whitlock and Houck to stay as relievers for at least one more year.