What About Buying?

Pedro's Complaint · Jun 21, 2015

I understand buying to strengthen a contender, but I don't like the idea of buying to become a contender, and this team hasn't yet demonstrated it's a contender in 2015. If this team were a contender, the weaknesses we see now would presumably be different.

RedOctober3829 · Jun 21, 2015

I knew this thread would come. To even start to think about this team as anything but playing for 2016 it would take series wins over Baltimore, TB, Toronto, and Houston.

tims4wins · Jun 21, 2015

31-40 tonight. 18 to go until the break. They're gonna need to win at least 12 or so to give themselves a chance to get in position before the deadline. They have another 14 games post break before the deadline so 32 total. Part of it will depend on how the other AL East teams do but I can't see the Sox as buyers unless they win at least 21 or so of the next 32.

johnnywayback · Jun 21, 2015

Luckily, one of our biggest needs is among the easiest to fill: a somewhat reliable 7th/8th inning arm.

dcmissle · Jun 21, 2015

The problem is not simply the record or deficit; it's also the gap. We have four teams bunched within 3 games, and the RS trail by 9.

Said earlier that I think we are done if the deficit is at double digits by end of June. I'll add that we're are practically done if this gap lasts another 9 days.

I would add nothing with a view to 2015 alone. Any significant move has to make sense for next year and beyond. They are just not worth further investment at this point.

NDame616 · Jun 21, 2015

johnnywayback said:
Luckily, one of our biggest needs is among the easiest to fill: a somewhat reliable 7th/8th inning arm.

Exactly. We practically GAVE the Orioles Miller last year because of how easy his spot is to fill....

Hank Scorpio · Jun 21, 2015

NDame616 said:
Exactly. We practically GAVE the Orioles Miller last year because of how easy his spot is to fill....

To be fair, Edro's value last July is nowhere near what it is now, or even what it was by the end of last season.

derekson · Jun 21, 2015

This team is half a game ahead of Oakland for the worst record in the AL. Even thinking about buying is utter insanity. One Oakland win and Boston loss and we are literally dead last in the AL.

And rather than being a weak division as projected, the AL East is currently the strongest division in the AL, and massively so if take out the Red Sox numbers dragging the divisional record and run differential down.

The only way this team is a contender is if they go on a streak like the 2002 Oakland A's.

AB in DC · Jun 21, 2015

tims4wins said:
31-40 tonight. 18 to go until the break. They're gonna need to win at least 12 or so to give themselves a chance to get in position before the deadline. They have another 14 games post break before the deadline so 32 total. Part of it will depend on how the other AL East teams do but I can't see the Sox as buyers unless they win at least 21 or so of the next 32.

...which would put the team at 52-51. That still doesn't scream "contender" to me.

curly2 · Jun 21, 2015

If they get to .500, then they can think about buying.

86spike · Jun 21, 2015

I will want to see them buy if two things happen:

1. The gap for the division is 4-5 games; and more importantly

2. The starting pitching puts up a string of solid to great outings and looks like it can be effective down the stretch.

Without significant pitching improvements from a lot of the guys already here, this team is no contender.

The X Man Cometh · Jun 22, 2015

derekson said:
This team is half a game ahead of Oakland for the worst record in the AL. Even thinking about buying is utter insanity. One Oakland win and Boston loss and we are literally dead last in the AL.

And rather than being a weak division as projected, the AL East is currently the strongest division in the AL, and massively so if take out the Red Sox numbers dragging the divisional record and run differential down.

The only way this team is a contender is if they go on a streak like the 2002 Oakland A's.

Buying and contending are not the same thing though.

If BC sees an opportunity to improve the overall talent level of the roster in a trade why does it matter if the team isn't going to the playoffs?

I wouldn't endorse taking a "loss" in a trade to satisfy a present need but that is not something that has to be true

Laser Show · Jun 22, 2015

This is a conversation to have after they rattle off 15 in a row

Even if this team were to do that, I'm not sure I'm comfortable "buying" in the traditional sense i.e. giving up prospects for help. This isn't 2013 where you're looking for one extra piece to put you over the top. There's likely going to be holes even if you fill some. I don't think this team is worth investing in to that level.

As others have said, though if you can make the team better for future years as well, go for it.

chrisfont9 · Jun 22, 2015

johnnywayback said:
Luckily, one of our biggest needs is among the easiest to fill: a somewhat reliable 7th/8th inning arm.

I don't see anything wrong with adding major league talent as long as the player is controllable through 2016. Not that you can expect an important bullpen piece to materialize for a lottery ticket, but I certainly wouldn't take the position that they shouldn't be making calls.

mauidano · Jun 22, 2015

Long ways to go before the deadline...we can win a bunch of games but if the rest of the AL East does the same....

threecy · Jun 22, 2015

derekson said:
This team is half a game ahead of Oakland for the worst record in the AL. Even thinking about buying is utter insanity.

That's rather near sighted. The core of the team is likely here to stay for awhile, and there's not much they can realistically unload. If there's a reasonable deal that can be made at the deadline that will help them over the course of multiple years (such as a player they can acquire and extend), I think they do it.

OCD SS · Jun 22, 2015

threecy said:
That's rather near sighted. The core of the team is likely here to stay for awhile, and there's not much they can realistically unload. If there's a reasonable deal that can be made at the deadline that will help them over the course of multiple years (such as a player they can acquire and extend), I think they do it.

It's not unloading, it's that the pieces they have to move don't necessarily look that appealing. Unless they're picking up a low-level guy that they like (ie a Brock Holt type), I don't think anything they could pick up that's a long term move, since they don't really have surplus to deal from; instead they have a bunch of guys who are a young core. Cecchini is falling flat in Pawtucket. Owens' results may be from not using his change up as he works on his curve, but that still might be a tougher sell. Johnson looks good, but still doesn't have a ton of upside. JBJ is hitting well enough, and maybe the reluctance to bring him up is to keep him as a chip. Pat Light sounds like he'll be a good relief option. I wouldn't include Deveres or Moncada for anything realistic, and would only deal Margot for genuine long term impact (like Hammels).

All of that said I'm not adverse to this team adding even short-term pieces. They won't blow out their future core, so I assume any move would be small. After the Royals run last year and with this team underperforming compared to expectations, I'm fine with them adding small pieces to see if they can make run. They're playing with pocket change either way (unless they are able to pry Hammels out of Philly for a reasonable cost, but that's a separate thread).

tims4wins · Jun 22, 2015

Rasputin said:
Depends on where the other teams are. If 52-51 puts us three games behind the division we can add pieces that aren't solely for 2015.

If it puts us six or seven back, then fuck it, sell.

Obviously if we're buyers Hamels looks very attractive. I may sound like a lunatic here, but Ryan Howard is getting to the end of his contract, is hitting better than Napoli, and taking more money on might mean fewer prospects heading the other way.

Beyond this year Howard is signed for 25 in '16 and 23 in '17 but there's a 10 million dollar buyout.

I don't know how the dollars all shake out but if Philly takes enough that the Sox can still get under the cap in 16, I'd really think about taking him.

Of course, we've got a long way to go before we can seriously think about contending.

Right. The 2004 Sox were only 56-47 through 103 games, and they were a buyer, and that was without a second wild card. That's better than 52-51, sure, but not by some crazy amount. Plus, getting to 52-51 will have meant they played really good baseball for 6 or 7 weeks and could be an indication that they are playing to their true talent level. Obviously, like you said if 52-51 means they are still 6+ games out of the division lead then I agree that buying isn't the right strategy.

Long way to go. Crazier things have happened. Just hope we have some meaningful August and September baseball this year, if not October.

Savin Hillbilly · Jun 22, 2015

Rasputin said:
Depends on where the other teams are. If 52-51 puts us three games behind the division we can add pieces that aren't solely for 2015.

If it puts us six or seven back, then fuck it, sell.

The problem with this is that we are all alone at the bottom of the division. In order for us to be three games back in a month, we not only have to play six games better than the Jays; we also have to play five games better than the Yankees and three games better than the O's and Rays. At that point, we're still three games back of everybody, with two months and a lot of interdivisional play to go.

It's not impossible, but it's exceedingly improbable.

Hagios · Jun 22, 2015

threecy said:
That's rather near sighted. The core of the team is likely here to stay for awhile, and there's not much they can realistically unload. If there's a reasonable deal that can be made at the deadline that will help them over the course of multiple years (such as a player they can acquire and extend), I think they do it.

The problem is the nature of the market. Trade deadline is a seller's market. The Sox would be bidding against contenders who are willing to sacrifice the future to win now. Buying at the deadline is the equivalent of trading up in the NFL draft. Good organizations like the Patriots know the time value of money and go the other way - make a short term sacrifice for long term gain. In fact, given that the low-to-mid hanging fruit of sabermetrics has shaken out, appreciating the time value of money is arguably the only thing that separates good organizations from bad organizations.

tims4wins · Jun 27, 2015

2-3 so far in the 32 heading to the deadline. 19-8 record needed to get above .500 by then. More unlikely they are buyers each day.

Lose Remerswaal · Jun 28, 2015

Only thing the Sox should be buying is more amateur scouts for the great draft position they will be in (again) next season.

soxhop411 · Jun 30, 2015

E5 Yaz · Jun 30, 2015

soxhop411 said:
“@TracyRingolsby: A’s scratch Sonny Gray. Chris Bassitt starts in his place against Rockies tonight.”

How about we discover why he was scratched before dropping random tweets such as this into threads?

RedOctober3829 · Jun 30, 2015

soxhop411 said:
“@TracyRingolsby: A’s scratch Sonny Gray. Chris Bassitt starts in his place against Rockies tonight.”

What would make you think that Sonny Gray would be traded to the Red Sox?

Lars The Wanderer · Jun 30, 2015

A's beat writer just said Sonny was scratched because he is sick. Take it back to DEFCON 4

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Jun 30, 2015

Why would the Sox trade for some sick guy?

Stan Papi Was Framed · Jun 30, 2015

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
Why would the Sox trade for some sick guy?

maybe it's a sick guy swap -- Brian Johnson for Sonny Gray, straight up? a medical "challenge" trade.

BroodsSexton · Jun 30, 2015

I looked up @TracyRingolsby, for what reason I don't know, and he's an Episcopalian with a great hat. So there's that.

soxhop411 · Jul 2, 2015

“@bradfo: Source: Sox eyeing younger pitchers under club control beyond 15 (translation: don’t bank on Hamels, Cueto) http://t.co/JDEBvdmFE1 via @WEEI”

TORONTO — As we head into the final few weeks until the non-waiver trade deadline, the Red Sox approach seems to be taking shape heading the end of the month. And, at this moment, it doesn’t appear to include a pursuit of Cole Hamels, or even Johnny Cueto.
According to a major league source, the Red Sox priority leading up to the July 31 deadline is to find younger pitchers who are under team control beyond just this season. Also per the source, it isn’t likely the Red Sox would be chasing pitchers already owed a substantial chunk of money.

This would suggest that Hamels wouldn’t be in the Red Sox’ cross-hairs, with the lefty under team control for the next four seasons but turning 32 years old later this year. The Philadelphia starter is owed $67.5 million from 2016-18, with a $20 million club option for ’19.

Cueto, who may be the most coveted pitcher on the trade market, is due to become a free agent after this season. The 29 year old has totaled a 2.84 ERA in 15 starts this season, including an eight-inning, one-run gem against Minnesota Wednesday.

Both starters and relievers are being looked at by the Red Sox.

Of the starters currently in the Red Sox’ rotation, Rick Porcello ($20 million), Clay Buchholz ($13 million club option) and Wade Miley ($6 million) are seemingly locked in for next season’s rotation.

Thelobsterroll · Jul 2, 2015

So are the sox looking at someone in the mold of Miley or someone in the mold of Gray. Better question. Do the Sox even have the prospects to get a young cost controlled ace?

dynomite · Jul 3, 2015

This thread is getting less silly by the day, but two series wins doesn't dig them out of the hole. As of tonight, 6 GB for both the AL East and the 2nd Wild Card, 4th worst record in the AL, run differential over -40.

Still, for all that we've talked about how the AL East has improved since April, the Orioles and Yankees are currently tied for 1st despite remaining on pace to win only 86 games, partly due to the AL East teams all being pretty good and tough on each other. I remain convinced that they're basically going to stand pat no matter what in July, apart from parting ways with departing players like Napoli and Victorino (edit: and Masterson, who I hope looks attractive as a 5th starter to someone)

Also:

Thelobsterroll said:
So are the sox looking at someone in the mold of Miley or someone in the mold of Gray. Better question. Do the Sox even have the prospects to get a young cost controlled ace?

The Sox are one of the most prospect rich organizations in MLB. They certainly have the prospects to get just about any available player, but the question is whether they are willing to trade them.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Jul 3, 2015

6 games back is nothing (well it's actually 6)! If the Sox are to somehow pull off a small miracle and claw their way into the playoffs, it would mean that they were the hottest team in the 2nd half. A win-loss record is the same at the end of the season no matter when the wins or losses are accrued, but having a hotter second half and moving into the playoffs with winning momentum is preferable obviously. I had a lot of faith in this team and think they're just starting to click.
They definitely need to pick up a Sonny Gray but he would cost a Margot or Devers plus. I wonder if Beane would be interested in an injured Vazquez even.... adding Brian Johnson?

Plympton91 · Jul 3, 2015

That strategy seems like a good one to me. The resurgent offense is generating tradable assets in that realm. Are there any competitive teams that need offense and have excess starting pitching? The Mets?

Apisith · Jul 3, 2015

We could realistically be 4 games back at the break. We don't need to buy or sell at this point. I know it's been only the last 3 weeks that we've been playing better, but this team has time and potential.

FanSinceBoggs · Jul 3, 2015

Plympton91 said:
That strategy seems like a good one to me. The resurgent offense is generating tradable assets in that realm. Are there any competitive teams that need offense and have excess starting pitching? The Mets?

The Mets aren't actively shopping their young stud SPs: Harvey, Degrom, Matz, Syndergaard, (Wheeler joins that group in 2016) and the cost will be enormous: Bogaerts or Betts as a starting point. I don't think the Mets will move any of their stud pitchers for a package revolving around a prospect like Devers, as they will want major league ready hitters, and that brings us back to Bogaerts and Betts, two players the Red Sox cannot trade without creating an enormous hole. Thus, I don't see the Red Sox and Mets as potential trade partners. It is also worth noting that the Mets do not need a young catcher.

Of course, the Mets are shopping Niese and have tried trading Colon in the past. The Red Sox could acquire one of them, but I doubt the Red Sox are interested.

E5 Yaz · Jul 3, 2015

Apisith said:
We could realistically be 4 games back at the break. We don't need to buy or sell at this point. I know it's been only the last 3 weeks that we've been playing better, but this team has time and potential.

In a season such as this, the number of games behind loses some importance when you add in the number of teams in front of them.

Yes, they're only 6 out of first at the moment; but to get there, they have to pass four teams.

Likewise, they are 6 out of a Wild Card spot ... but there are 8 teams ahead of them.

If by the trade deadline, they could make themselves clear of, for instance, the Rays, Blue Jays and Indians, the road looks considerably more manageable

dcmissle · Jul 5, 2015

Byrdbrain said:
You are assuming the Sox would have won the series without Peavy and you simply can't do that.
He was a solid pitcher for the Sox in 2013 and very well may have been the difference

This is true. Any year you win the WS is an excellent year, and any addition during that year who contributes substantially to winning the WS represents a good acquisition, despite the downstream cost. Bagwell for Andersen would have been a good deal had the RS won the WS. They didn't, so it wasn't, but it really is as simple as this -- rings are the measure.

As for this year, I don't think we'll be buyers or sellers so much as listeners. This team where it is right now is not worth a high cost infusion; the odds are too long, the warts too many. By the same token, it's not worth stripping down and we should perhaps be thankful that there is no stellar veteran to strip. Given recent years, a winning season and not finishing in last place are worthy achievements. Now it's true that a good club a player away might get stupid; but good clubs a player away usually aren't stupid. The conceit among some here that the RS front office might snooker some team, especially after last year's trading deadline deals, is amusing.

Mighty Joe Young · Jul 5, 2015

I suppose it rather depends on what "buyers" means. I really can't see the FO spending prospect assets on rentals at this point. Maybe if they are within 3-4 games come the end of July they I suppose it's possible. On the other hand I definitely can see them spending assets on someone like Hamels or a trade for a pending FA starter they think (or probably know) they can sign .. A Margot/Devers plus Johnson/Owens plus a Low A toolsy player should probably fetch a Cueto plus Chapman. They'd have to be pretty confident in signing Cueto though.

Sonny Grey will cost more unfortunately.. The aforementioned package should certainly get you Hamels.

Snodgrass'Muff · Jul 5, 2015

I prefer to look at it as they've only lost one of their last 7 series, and have won 4 (counting the Atlanta series as two, instead of one). It's encouraging and is enough that they're not dead in the water yet.

bosockboy · Jul 5, 2015

They definitely have the war chest to do a Cueto/Chapman deal, and barring health setbacks elsewhere would give them a great chance to win the division.

Cueto/Buchholz/Rodriguez/Porcello/Miley gives us a rotation to compete with anybody.

Papelbon's Poutine · Jul 5, 2015

bosockboy said:
They definitely have the war chest to do a Cueto/Chapman deal, and barring health setbacks elsewhere would give them a great chance to win the division.

Cueto/Buchholz/Rodriguez/Porcello/Miley gives us a rotation to compete with anybody.

And if they weren't still in last place by four games, that might be a move they should make. As it is, they've had to go 7-3 their last ten to get to six back. Make an acquisition, sure, but you don't dip that heavily into the prospect pool on the off chance they may be able to climb over four other teams. Spending the assets to acquire Cueto and Chapman should be a fire able offense for BC. In no way, shape or form does it give them a "great chance to win the division".

PrometheusWakefield · Jul 5, 2015

Rasputin said:
Since the seven game losing streak, it's twelve wins and seven losses. That doesn't sound all that impressive until you realize it's a 102 win pace.

In that span, the Sox have won series from the first place team in the AL West, the first place team in the AL Central, and the team that was, at the time, the first place team in the AL East.

We've got 19 more games before the deadline. Another 12-7 stretch and you're looking at a 51-52 record at the deadline and that's probably a spot where you can make some things happen.

102 win pace is still not enough to end up with 90 wins. To do that, we need to go 51-27 the rest of the way, which is a 105 win pace.

Last year, 88 wins got the second wildcard. That would require a 49-29 record, which is a 102 win pace.

On the other hand, right now the second WC would go to Baltimore and Minnesota, who are on pace to finish a notch below 85 wins. To get there, we'd need to go 46-32, which is a 95 win pace.

What About Buying?

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