Western Conference Finals: Minnesota Timberwolves (3) vs Dallas Mavericks (5)

[lovegtm]

I'm glad that everyone has learned their lessons from the earlier rounds of the playoffs and is no longer rushing to crown players/teams The Best Ever after a few close games go their way.

I'm old enough to remember the Denver Nuggets, whose Unstoppable Two-Man Game guaranteed them success at the end of every game. I mean look, LeBron's jumper rimmed out and Murray's went in!! How can you argue with that?

All the narratives and predictions today would be totally different if Luka's shot had bricked or Naz's quite good look had gone in. That probably isn't what you want to be basing predictions on.

 

[tims4wins]

I'm glad that everyone has learned their lessons from the earlier rounds of the playoffs and is no longer rushing to crown players/teams The Best Ever after a few close games go their way.

Yes… but one exception. If Dallas wins the West, Luka is your 2024-2025 MVP so long as Dallas wins 50+ games. Book it now.

 

[Cellar-Door]

https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/1794419019250078081

 

[slamminsammya]

https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/1794419019250078081

is this per possession or total? 40 sounds implausible

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I'm glad that everyone has learned their lessons from the earlier rounds of the playoffs and is no longer rushing to crown players/teams The Best Ever after a few close games go their way.

I'm old enough to remember the Denver Nuggets, whose Unstoppable Two-Man Game guaranteed them success at the end of every game. I mean look, LeBron's jumper rimmed out and Murray's went in!! How can you argue with that?

All the narratives and predictions today would be totally different if Luka's shot had bricked or Naz's quite good look had gone in. That probably isn't what you want to be basing predictions on.

But Luka is definitely the Most Clutch player under 27 who is still playing in the playoffs. As you know its important we get these subjective ratings right.

The good thing about recency bias is that its dynamic and by this time tomorrow all of our narratives may have changed.

As for Minnesota, they gave Reid more run at the expense of Towns in G2 but it still didn't work. Naz has to obviously stay on the floor but Minnesota needs Towns' offense (they need every bucket they can get) so maybe they play with the lineups in G3, especially since Dallas seems to enjoy staying on Rudy Island.

Edit: and maybe its unwise but I would try to play KAT in lieu of Gobert more to see if you can live with that trade off.

 

[the moops]

All the narratives and predictions today would be totally different if Luka's shot had bricked or Naz's quite good look had gone in.

Yep. When the game is decided by a point, a make or miss at the end of the game will always change the narrative. This will continue to be true for eternity

 

[benhogan]

It's extremely unlikely that they are both the exact same level of matchup challenge for the Cs, so people are trying to figure out which of two tough options is preferable.

I'm going to have to start giving a DIGBY disclaimer soon: Dallas Is Good But, YouKnow? I think they're a very good team.

Besides the lopsided regular season results, it feels like the Mavs are a better matchup for Boston
1. Jrue/Jaylen take turns guarding Luka. They have the girth/strength to somewhat slow him down
2. White guards Kyrie and challenges him around the hoop.
3. KP, Al, & even Luke, drop style/length slows Lively/Gafford rim runs
4. The Celtics are going to bring their BIGs out to the perimeter which hurts Dallas' paint defense
5. A gimpy, beat-up Luka can't hide on D, while taking plays off, like he can against Minny

Dallas is playing very well, but this is as good as we could have hoped for.

 

[lovegtm]

Yep. When the game is decided by a point, a make or miss at the end of the game will always change the narrative. This will continue to be true for eternity

Totally. This is why, as unsexy as it is, net rating and the first 43 minutes matter A LOT. You want to be blowing out some games, winning others comfortably, and then hopefully having bounces go your way in the others, which is the difference between sweep/5 game series and 6-7 games, for an elite team.

 

[benhogan]

I feel like you've said this a few times (best defense and best record over the final 6 weeks), but can you confirm where you're actually seeing this? Between March 1 and the end of the regular season (44 days), they were 6th in defensive rating and had the 5th best record. If we want to get super picky and go exactly 6 weeks (since March 3) they jump up to 3rd and 2nd, but still not the best (the best record, almost no matter how you slice it, belongs to Boston).

Dallas actively tried to lose the last 2 games of the season to Detroit + OKC for seeding purposes.

They lost both games by a combined 67pts

I could see an argument for excluding them for HRB's purposes

 

[Imbricus]

Besides the lopsided regular season results, it feels like the Mavs are a better matchup for Boston

This is where I'm at too, especially considering Luka is probably not going to get any healthier after this grueling, possibly seven game series. In fairness though, I didn't see the Mavs during their end-of-season run, where apparently they looked dominant, so I'm basing this more on the team I saw when they played the Celtics. Seems like we could get a lot of advantages going at Kyrie and Luka.

But I wouldn't be surprised if the Wolves take both games in Dallas, and one is a blowout. This is still a very, very good team, and they've suffered two razor-thin losses, so I agree with Moops, the media types are overplaying the Dallas-is-the-team-to-beat narrative.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

What do you mean by "They aren’t built as a Net Rating darling" ? I thought every team is built to score more points than their opponents which is what that measures?

I'd also add in the playoffs and in the regular season net rating is more predictive of future wins than win percentage. The playoffs have small samples so obviously you need more context and may have to discount for injuries or other types of aberrations.

I can buy their defense being elite but at the same time we have a sample of 14 playoff games now and the defense has been middle of the pack relative to playoff teams. Among teams that made it past the first round their defense has been behind Denver, Minnesota, Boston, and OKC with a 0.2 points edge on Cleveland. Certainly they have faced more potent offenses than Boston but I don't think the #1 defense in the final 15 games means they have a top (playoffs) defense.

I’ll respond to this probably tomorrow I am busy all day today. The short is that Net Rating, like many other metrics on their own, lies. Strong defensive teams who have elite scorers that play to the score of the game are not going to run teams out of the building to jack up this number. To another post above, as I’ve been preaching, this group is a FAR different team over the final month of the season than they were at the ASB.

 

[Auger34]

People's ability to take every single situation and somehow turn it into a Celtics slight is fascinating. This board did it with Tom Brady too.

Tatum was All NBA first team in 2023. And he was, checks notes, All NBA first team in 2024.

Two years straight, All NBA First Team. He's definitely being overlooked.

I agree with your overall point about 90% of the time on here and, I’ll be honest, I think Tatum is overrated here (sometimes by a good amount)

However, Tatum is underrated by the national media. Thats not a hot take or a Boston grievance thing.

 

[Cellar-Door]

is this per possession or total? 40 sounds implausible

Pretty sure it's per 100 can't find it exactly but eyeballing lineups on nba.com it looks possible Gobert hasn't sat a ton, but when he does.... Defense has been apocalyptic geberally

 

[Auger34]

View: https://twitter.com/bigpodwithshaq/status/1794086715675578864?s=42

 

[McBride11]

We could have 8 days of no basketball if both teams sweep.

The NBA wouldnt move it up??

But they have other striped levers they can pull

 

[lovegtm]

View: https://twitter.com/stevemerkle9/status/1794231359827046659?s=46

 

[InstaFace]

is this per possession or total? 40 sounds implausible

I dunno about the rate stats, but Gobert is 4th in the playoffs in total +/-, behind only the Celtics' top 3.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/plus-minus-leaders-in-nba-playoffs-this-year

And that's with his team losing 5 of their 13 games so far.

 

[Ale Xander]

I love that "Go home, bitches" made it into the Youtube highlight video.

 

[TripleOT]

View: https://twitter.com/bigpodwithshaq/status/1794086715675578864?s=42

This take is idiotic, of course. Even looking at the most egregious rule breaker, Green, he is on the way to earning $255 million in NBA salary, exclusive of playoff bonuses, and has been fines $900k and lost $3.2 million to suspension. Plenty of money left over to pay income tax.

For the typical NBA star, total fines and suspension dollars don’t add up to 1/10th of one percent of career earnings.

Regarding paying income tax, I don’t think the NBA can do anything about it. Maybe Dray wants the NBA to locate all the teams in Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming, so he won’t have to pay any state income tax. Poor Green is being hit for 12.3% from CA on half his salary, plus the other six games he plays in the Golden State. Shaq, who I believe uses FL as his state of residence, perked up when state income tax was mentioned.

 

[Auger34]

Regarding paying income tax, I don’t think the NBA can do anything about it. Maybe Dray wants the NBA to locate all the teams in Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming, so he won’t have to pay any state income tax. Poor Green is being hit for 12.3% from CA on half his salary, plus the other six games he plays in the Golden State. Shaq, who I believe uses FL as his state of residence, perked up when state income tax was mentioned.

The NBA can’t do shit about this and it speaks to how stupid and woe is me Draymond is about everything.

I am kind of ashamed to admit how much that whole clip bothers me. The amount of money this guy has made and he has the balls and stupidity to go on a podcast and spew that shit

 

[TripleOT]

The NBA can’t do shit about this and it speaks to how stupid and woe is me Draymond is about everything.

I am kind of ashamed to admit how much that whole clip bothers me. The amount of money this guy has made and he has the balls and stupidity to go on a podcast and spew that shit

And his stupidity gets traction, instead of the teams actually playing.

 

[Auger34]

Listening to Lowe's podcast with Bontempts this morning (two of the more sober and positive people regarding Jayson Tatum, calling him the most malleable superstar in the league), they agreed he's probably the 8th best player in the league. How do you square that with him making 1st team all-NBA (i.e. top 5 player) in back to back to back years? People have been missing the forest for the trees with this guy for awhile now.

Tatum's last 5 games in the finals vs GS:

23.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 4.2 turnovers, .513 TS%

Ant's last 5 games:

20.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 2.2 turnovers, .494 TS%

I listened to this pod and I was surprised.

I normally think Bontemps is insufferable. I thought he was incredibly fair and down the middle, including when he tried to stop Lowe multiple time from talking about Tatum vs. brown and Tatum’s place in the NBA, to which Lowe kept saying “I am going to make it fun”….and then said the exact goddamn shit everyone would expect him to say.

I am a big Lowe fan…during this podcast, I wanted to reach through my phone and slap him. He annoyed the shit out of me multiple times. Absolutely belaboring and acting like the “Tatum-Brown” thing was interesting based off of a fucking Kendrick Perkins point. Then his “final list” of top players sucked. It was kind of embarrassing the he acted like it was some really thought out list, when he clearly put it together in 5 minutes max.
He also kept trying to stick up for Ant with really dumb points that you can bring up for everyone. To Bontemps credit, he was having any of it and continually mentioned how bad Edwards had been

 

[johnmd20]

I agree with your overall point about 90% of the time on here and, I’ll be honest, I think Tatum is overrated here (sometimes by a good amount)

However, Tatum is underrated by the national media. Thats not a hot take or a Boston grievance thing.

He's been 1st Team All Pro for TWO straight years. Other than winning the MVP, there is no higher accolade an NBA player can receive. How is that underrated?

The national media doesn't fawn over Tatum because he's been around but he hasn't won. That is how it works. He's not old but he's old news. If he wins a title, it will immediately turn to, "Is Tatum the most underrated player in the NBA?" Until then, the media will focus on Ant Man because he's new.

The crying about this Tatum "disrespect" is just lame.

 

[slamminsammya]

The short is that Net Rating, like many other metrics on their own, lies. Strong defensive teams who have elite scorers that play to the score of the game are not going to run teams out of the building to jack up this number.

Is there any actual data supporting this claim? Like do these types of teams tend to have winning percentages above what you'd expect just from net rating? I am very skeptical.

For most teams net rating is a better predictor of future wins than winning percentage. Ill be surprised if this breaks for "strong defensive teams who have elite scorers".

 

[Smokey Joe]

I’ll respond to this probably tomorrow I am busy all day today. The short is that Net Rating, like many other metrics on their own, lies. Strong defensive teams who have elite scorers that play to the score of the game are not going to run teams out of the building to jack up this number. To another post above, as I’ve been preaching, this group is a FAR different team over the final month of the season than they were at the ASB.

“Strong defensive teams who have elite scorers” fits the Celtics better then the Mavs.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I can believe that having elite one on one scorers might lead to a team outperforming (in real world) it's net rating the same way a great QB can in football and legit exceptional closers can in baseball---because in all cases it's about incremental impact in very high leverage situations. As we saw in last two games, Luka is unique in that way.

But other than that small situation and impact (and I think it's going to be limited) I do not think it is likely that anything is going to be more predictive of team quality than net rating...for same reason that similar larger-sample data sets (e.g. run differential) are more predictive in other sports. Also, the idea that scorers play to the score of the game is probably true in a very limited set of situations---but should not be overstated in a 30-50 game sample as a factor

 

[HomeRunBaker]

“Strong defensive teams who have elite scorers” fits the Celtics better then the Mavs.

Sorry was in rush meant to include slow pace that tends to play to tighter results whereas the Celtics can throw up 140 any night. That isn’t how Dallas plays. They keep it close to the best, rely on defense and two great halfcoeit iso scorers.

 

[the moops]

He's been 1st Team All Pro for TWO straight years. Other than winning the MVP, there is no higher accolade an NBA player can receive. How is that underrated?

Full agreement here. Also has finished 6th, 4th, 6th in MVP voting the past 3 seasons.

 

[slamminsammya]

Sorry was in rush meant to include slow pace that tends to play to tighter results whereas the Celtics can throw up 140 any night. That isn’t how Dallas plays. They keep it close to the best, rely on defense and two great halfcoeit iso scorers.

net rating is pace adjusted and dallas is currently 8th out of 16 playoff teams in pace. they had the 7th highest pace in the regular season (ie played fast). in the last 15 games of the season they were also 7th in pace.

 

[jmcc5400]

I listened to this pod and I was surprised.

I normally think Bontemps is insufferable. I thought he was incredibly fair and down the middle, including when he tried to stop Lowe multiple time from talking about Tatum vs. brown and Tatum’s place in the NBA, to which Lowe kept saying “I am going to make it fun”….and then said the exact goddamn shit everyone would expect him to say.

I am a big Lowe fan…during this podcast, I wanted to reach through my phone and slap him. He annoyed the shit out of me multiple times. Absolutely belaboring and acting like the “Tatum-Brown” thing was interesting based off of a fucking Kendrick Perkins point. Then his “final list” of top players sucked. It was kind of embarrassing the he acted like it was some really thought out list, when he clearly put it together in 5 minutes max.
He also kept trying to stick up for Ant with really dumb points that you can bring up for everyone. To Bontemps credit, he was having any of it and continually mentioned how bad Edwards had been

Yes, Zach definitely seems to have caught a case of the stupid/inflammatory from his ESPN colleagues. I agree that Bontemps was measured and fair - and I expected the worst when he started by saying that he was disliked in Boston because he is “rational” about Tatum.

 

[bigq]

View: https://twitter.com/kevinoconnornba/status/1794204779046129838?s=46&t=1S4eWjX_rzBBrpPNddRPAg


He lost the Nuggets so I guess this is where the dial has landed.

Hey, look everyone! It’s a jackass trying to get attention on Twitter! Quick, let’s give him clicks.

 

[lovegtm]

Isn't the real truth about Dallas simpler? +4.5 or whatever net rating is very good against good playoff competition!

Everything else seems like either a very mild effect (yeah, you need a lower net rating when fewer points overall are scored) or backwards rationalization after they won some close games against Min/OKC that easily, easily could have gone the other way.

 

[Auger34]

He is not trying to capture the nerdy analytics crowd folks.

Do you consume any KOC content? Or listen to the Mismatch?

I am not trying to dunk on you but I would guess the answer is no, because KOC is absolutely trying to capture the nerdy analytics crowd.
The title of his podcast is based off of that

 

[the moops]

Do you consume any KOC content? Or listen to the Mismatch?

I am not trying to dunk on you but I would guess the answer is no, because KOC is absolutely trying to capture the nerdy analytics crowd.
The title of his podcast is based off of that

I have listened to The Mismatch. KOC is like a quasi analytics guy IMO. He plays that part on the pod with Vernon, but then posts simple shit like the above tweet. I think he tries to appease to multiple types of basketball fans, as he should

 

[benhogan]

Timpf offers some solid breakdown video analysis for G2, better than most mainstream pods.

His commentary & video evidence on Rudy Gobert is spot on.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSYM4SbNat0

Some people get TRIGGERED by outside vids, please avoid these opinion pieces & go back to the Twitterverse

 

[Cellar-Door]

It is insane how much MIN relies on Gobert to anchor their defense. This series they are giving up 145.6 points per 100 when he sits.

 

[lovegtm]

It is insane how much MIN relies on Gobert to anchor their defense. This series they are giving up 145.6 points per 100 when he sits.

That's wild, since the other guys on their roster are theoretically good defenders (minus KAT, and he's not that bad).

 

[HomeRunBaker]

That's wild, since the other guys on their roster are theoretically good defenders (minus KAT, and he's not that bad).

Obv it’s an extremely small sample. The gap wasn’t wide at all over the course of the season….much smaller than the Spurs without Wemby on the floor.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Chuck on fire in the pregame. Going on rant about how Luka and Kyrie should come out aggressive and not give Minnesota any hope. The next sentence he says he'd sit Doncic in G4 because he's injured......so essentially giving them hope. National Treasure.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

The Wolves have been so Jekyll and Hyde in these playoffs I wouldn’t be shocked if they won this game by double digits.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

The Wolves have been so Jekyll and Hyde in these playoffs I wouldn’t be shocked if they won this game by double digits.

Definitely. A blowout isn't off the table either as Dallas has layed some eggs at home, like all teams can do, in these playoffs. Minnesota should come out hot and if Dallas can withstand the storm and keep the game close after 3Q then I feel they will again out-execute Minnesota in the 4Q. If they can't withstand it the game could get away from them.

 

[BigSoxFan]

The Wolves have been so Jekyll and Hyde in these playoffs I wouldn’t be shocked if they won this game by double digits.

Feels like we’re overdue for a big Ant game. Hope it comes tonight.

 

[Justthetippett]

Definitely. A blowout isn't off the table either as Dallas has layed some eggs at home, like all teams can do, in these playoffs. Minnesota should come out hot and if Dallas can withstand the storm and keep the game close after 3Q then I feel they will again out-execute Minnesota in the 4Q. If they can't withstand it the game could get away from them.

I think Dallas playing loose and pressure free at home has serious boom/bust potential. I would be surprised if this game is close either way.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I think Dallas playing loose and pressure free at home has serious boom/bust potential. I would be surprised if this game is close either way.

I would be shocked with a Dallas blowout I will say that. Minnesota has every emotional and intangible in their favor during this 1H so I give them nearly all of the blowout equity.

 

[timelysarcasm]

Obviously the Wolves have to have this one. Need good KAT and Ant to show up tonight.

edit: Also, they need to make Luka run. And run and run and run on defense.

 

[bankshot1]

I'm rooting for the Wolves tonight in a grueling physical pound the Mavs game

 

[HomeRunBaker]

KAT coming out like it’s a January game in Detroit. You be you KAT.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Wolves forgetting the key element of defense that it’s bad to leave a guy wide open next to the hoop when an incredible passer has the ball.

I think at this point in the game you have to take your chances with Luka hitting outside shots. Giving up open dunks certainly ain’t it.

 

[bankshot1]

Wolves come out flat with no energy

 

[McBride11]

10 bn $ and they use an iPhone to film Conley walking to the locker room