We're on to next season, but first . . .

[Saints Rest]

So it's time to put 2021 in the rear view, but as we do, we should look back at the good, the bad and the ugly from 2021.

Successes:

• Judon's first 13 games. He was a legit DPOY candidate.
• JC's ball-hawking. He tied two all-time greats in Lester Hayes and Everyone Walls for most INT's thru his first four seasons. He also had some dominant stats across the board as a DB.
• Mac's Progress. He's not a top-tier guy for sure. And he may never be. But I think its safe to rank him somewhere in the second 10 of QBs. He pretty much performed as advertised: smart, efficient, accurate, with some arm-strength issues. Clearly the best of the rookie QB's, and probably one of the top 5 rookie QB seasons of the last 10 years.
• Christian Barmore and Rhamondre Stevenson. Along with Mac (vide supra), it looks like BB's best draft in a lonnnng time.
• RBs. Harris, Rhamondre, and Bolden all played at or above expectations all year.
• Dugger and Phillips. Pretty great work from each of them all season.
• Nick Folk. Simply a rock-solid island of consistency amidst a series of inconsistencies.

Disappointments:

• Judon's last 5 games. Who was that guy in the long red sleeves? Because he bore no relation to the guy who was the Pats MVP thru 13 games.
• Jonnu: There were other disappointments among the FA signings, but he certainly looked like a rising star TE coming out of Tenn. Then he put up more negatives than positives over the course of this season, from dropped passes to poor blocking to too many penalties.
• OLine: This was supposed to be a strength of the team, and though they seemed to get it together for awhile, on balance had more weak games than strong ones. I wound't give them a failing grade for their actual performance (more like a B-/C+), but compared to expectations, I would.
• LB corps. Other than Judon's first 13 games, there were very few plays or games where the LB's were the difference makers for the positive. (Sadly, the inverse is not nearly as true.). Other than Judon, there's not a single player who played a down at LB for the Pats this year who I would be sad to say goodbye to. Please, Baby Jesus in the Manger, let Perkins and McGrone be the second-coming of <insert names of any LB's who can actually run faster than me>.
• Jake Bailey: From All-Pro to WTF.
• (Not so) Special Teams. Posting the first negative DVOA since before many of these guys were born. Three blocked punts. No big returns on punts or kicks. UGH!
• Coaching/Discipline. This did not look like a Patriots team in terms of stupid penalties and bone-headed mistakes. Other than the first Buffalo game, I'm not sure there was a game where it seemed like the coaches simply figured out the way to win.

 

[IdiotKicker]

I think Bailey took a step back, but WTF is a bit strong. He still grades out as a top 10 punter.

 

[Awesome Fossum]

The Buffalo win was amazing. Them winning the next two takes the shine off of it, but that's something we'll remember forever. Not all seasons yield something like that.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I could argue with you about Judon and that he was a little overrated in those first 13 games and that JCJ or honorable mention to Phillips was the D MVP. That’s not the point of this thread. But you know who I enjoyed like pound for pound the most? Stevenson. There’s something enjoyable about a monster truck that handles like a Ferrari in tight corridors. I felt like he could make any run a big one. Rhamondre Stevenson was a pleasure to watch and I can’t wait for year 2 for him.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Kyed with some interesting numbers on Bourne as a runner

View: https://twitter.com/DougKyed/status/1483094798428950537?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

 

[jose melendez]

Judon through 13 felt like the best edge rusher we'd had since at least the end of the first run of championships.

 

[Dotrat]

Kyed with some interesting numbers on Bourne as a runner

View: https://twitter.com/DougKyed/status/1483094798428950537?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

I’d be more than happy to see KB become a middle class person’s Deebo Samuel.

 

[radsoxfan]

I don't know if my expectations were too low or he just looked good compared to Jonnu, but I would put Hunter Henry's season as a clear success.

His production was pretty much in line with past years but he played every game and it was nice to have a competent TE out there post-Gronk. Glad he is on the team the next couple of seasons.

On the other end of the FA spectrum, Jonnu. Yikes. His only use was when Josh cooked a scheme/play just to get him wide open so he could run with the ball. If he was asked to run a normal route or make a play on the ball in tight coverage..... not pretty.

 

[Saints Rest]

I probably should have clarified "successes" in the OP as ""exceeded expectations." Henry was a success, for sure, but he did about what I thought he would do, both good and bad (his blocking was meh, as predicted).

There are surely a few more successes, but no one else, in my view, really outshone was we had expected. For example, Andrews and Mason (and eventually Brown) played pretty much how I would define as their norms. Bourne, Meyers, too.

 

[Super Nomario]

For disappointments, I think you have to look at young non-rookies failing to take a step forward. Guys like Uche and Onwenu looked poised to be major contributors coming into the year and were afterthoughts down the stretch. Disappointments like Harry and Joejuan Williams failed to rebound. Winovich and Herron took steps back. A bunch of other guys (Asiasi, Jennings, Keene, most of the rookie class) basically had lost years.

 

[Captaincoop]

I’d be more than happy to see KB become a middle class person’s Deebo Samuel.

Wouldn't that just be Deebo Samuel?

 

[Saints Rest]

For disappointments, I think you have to look at young non-rookies failing to take a step forward. Guys like Uche and Onwenu looked poised to be major contributors coming into the year and were afterthoughts down the stretch. Disappointments like Harry and Joejuan Williams failed to rebound. Winovich and Herron took steps back. A bunch of other guys (Asiasi, Jennings, Keene, most of the rookie class) basically had lost years.

I agree with you on Uche. I'm not entirely sure about Onwenu. Yes, he seemed to take a step back but maybe we were a bit premature to assume he could seamlessly make the transition from RT to LG. And OTOH, his disappointment at LG was offset by Ted Karras out-performing expectations there in his stead.

Wino, I would agree. Herron, I'm not sure. Kind of a mixed bag there. First of all, I didn't expect much from him going into this year other than as a competent backup. He seemed to be less than that early, and more than that late -- so net wash, maybe???

As for Harry, Williams and the others, my expectations for all of them were pretty low.

 

[Bleedred]

A buddy of mine is a savage Pats fan but always glass half empty type of guy, is firmly in he Brady camp when it comes to Brady v. BB and fancies himself a bit of a "guru" when it comes to his patriots evaluation. He issued the following post-mortem, which I will respond to when I have more time, but would enjoy folks thoughts. His screed is below.

______________________

All:

Whereas I have never been known to be brimming with positivity about the Patriots - even in the best of times – please kindly don’t get seduced by the optimism emanating from the team’s beat writers about the immediate future. Aside from the fact that said writers are entirely beholden to the team which, of course, undercuts their objectivity, the stark reality suggests that optimism should not be what you’re feeling right now, to wit, a granular look at the roster is quite alarming:

1. Let’s start with the defense:
2. The Patriots play a 4-2-5 base defense.
3. Your 2 DE’s are Judon and KVN, each of whom faded DRAMATICALLY over the season.
4. Judon, in particular, morphed from potential DPOY Candidate to a benched player in WC Weekend. Totally undisciplined + unimpactful. And do not look at his contract. He will also be 30 to start the season. Is it possible he was injured? Perhaps, but the declining play as the season wore on was reminiscent of what happened with the Ravens.
5. To me, it’s Adalius Thomas 2.0 – started like gangbusters, faded dramatically, albatross contract and, should the benching continue, doubt that he will take it kindly.
6. KVN had a good year but also faded and is 31. Perhaps a Salary Cap Casualty (5mm savings) but at 7.5 per is not unreasonable.
7. Winovich & Uche were invisible and Perkins is an unknown.
8. The Interior DL is a mess.
9. Whereas Barmore appears to be a stud as a pass rusher, he is certainly at this stage a liability against the run.
10. Guy is 32 and Godchaux was drastically overpaid and got pushed around a ton.
11. Figure they will both be Cap Casualties, for a Savings of 7mm or so.
12. Obviously, the Linebackers are a mess.
13. High is an all-time great Patriot but he is 32, SLOW, and could not tackle at the end of the year.
14. Bentley improved but is a Brandon Spikes type.
15. Would have been terrific in the 70’s but too slow and immobile for today’s game.
16. All too often, the “A” Gap Blitzes from High and Bentley did not get home.
17. McGrone is an unknown, McMillan is injury-prone, and Jennings has been a bust.
18. In the back-end, Phillips and Dugger are back & hopefully D-Mac is back too.
19. Has he lost a step? Sure.
20. But, he still has a bit left and he’s obviously a phenomenal leader. There should always be a place for him here.
21. JCJ will have to be franchised because there is no other path but that will be 17mm per.
22. His lack of effort against Buffalo was alarming.
23. Mills was ok as a 2 and at slot either Jones returns or you jettison him and use the 6mm in savings and get a new slot.
24. In sum, assuming KVN and D-Mac return (and JCJ is franchised), you still need 5 new starters on D (DT, DT, LB, LB, 2nd Corner).
25. And, KVN and Judon will only get even slower with age and the only players of consequence who are young are Dugger + Barmore.
26. When you watched other games WC weekend, was it not glaring just how slow the Pats are on D?
27. On offense:
28. The OL has issues.
29. Wynn is an average LT but is fragile; his 10.5 is guaranteed.
30. Karras is a FA, as is T. Brown.
31. Andrews and Mason are solid (Mason can be extended to create room).
32. Onwenu is an enigma. Nothing about this year for him made sense.
33. Herron was up + down & Grant and Cajuste have been epic fails.
34. Hence, the OL needs some change.
35. The RB room is solid.
36. At TE, I like Henry but truth be told he’s pretty soft and did not play commensurate with that contract.
37. Smith has obviously been an epic fail and his contract for the next 2 years is an albatross.
38. Bourne & Meyers are nice players but a better receiver is needed to push them both down the depth chart.
39. Aghelor’s release would free up 4.8mm in space but also 10mm in dead money.
40. Mac showed tons of poise and toughness.
41. More mobile than given credit for and nice touch on his ball but no real velocity to fire it into a tight window.
42. I like him but this coming year will be a major tell.
43. For the IBWT gang, without Tom in NE, Bill is 36-36.
44. Without Tom over his career, he is 73-81 (nearly a 10-year sampling).
45. Without Tom, he’s pretty ordinary.
46. He’s 70 and the team completely quit on him after the bye.
47. What alarmed me most about Buffalo was not just the talent disparity but the total, utter surrender.
48. And one cannot overlook the season-long gaffes in all 3 phases – punt blocks (3), Gunner not understanding how to play KR, delay of games, too many men in the huddle, false starts, etc.
49. His recent high draft picks (Rounds 1-3) prior to 2021 yielded Wynn, Michel, Duke Dawson, Harry, JoeJuan, Wino, Cajuste, Harris (Solid), Dugger, Uche, Jennings, Asiasi, and Keane.
50. His spending spree in 2021 yielded massive duds in Anderson (remember him), Aghelor, Smith, and Godchaux.
51. So, what you’re left with is a SLOW defense that needs a total overhaul and an offense that needs at least one major weapon and a make-over on the OL.
52. Not much Cap Room or Draft Capital with which to work and a 70-year old coach who is 2-7 against Miami & Buffalo since 2020 & 17-17 post Tom.

 

[BusRaker]

The really sad part is that the injury gods were extra kind to us this year, perhaps the only difference between an 8 or 9 win team.

 

[Super Nomario]

I agree with you on Uche. I'm not entirely sure about Onwenu. Yes, he seemed to take a step back but maybe we were a bit premature to assume he could seamlessly make the transition from RT to LG. And OTOH, his disappointment at LG was offset by Ted Karras out-performing expectations there in his stead.

Karras performing well was good for this season, but for the future, it obviously would have been better if Onwenu, 5 years younger and under contract two more years, had held onto the job. Now Karras hits FA and we still don't really know if we can plug Onwenu in there.

This team is facing a ton of key contributors hitting FA this offseason: Brown, Karras, JC Jackson, McCourty, Hightower and Bentley, and they have done a poor job grooming young players to take on those roles next year.

Wino, I would agree. Herron, I'm not sure. Kind of a mixed bag there. First of all, I didn't expect much from him going into this year other than as a competent backup. He seemed to be less than that early, and more than that late -- so net wash, maybe???

As for Harry, Williams and the others, my expectations for all of them were pretty low.

That's 100% fair, but every once in a while a guy exceeds expectations late in this rookie contract and it's worth noting that it didn't happen for any of these guys.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Bourne had some of the best per target production in the league as a WR too, 3rd in the league behind Deebo and Jamar Chase.

 

[Van Everyman]

The really sad part is that the injury gods were extra kind to us this year, perhaps the only difference between an 8 or 9 win team.

I mean other than losing our starting LT for 8 games, our pass catching RB for the whole year, both starting RBs to concussions, and our second best DB for 2/3 of the season. I'm assuming Judon was pretty damn hurt from the end of the Buffalo game on. And our first DB/former DPOY never made it onto the field.

I'm not saying this was any worse than any other team. But to say the Pats were some model of good fortune in terms of team health isn't true. And I think it partly led to them running out of steam at the end of the year and getting their asses handed to them last weekend.

 

[Saints Rest]

Can Wynn's contract be extended in any way to spread out the 2022 cap hit or is that $10.5M hitting in 2022 in any case?

In my ideal world, we would re-sign Brown and move him to LT; put Onwenu back at RT where he shined in 2020; and slide Wynn inside to LG where he might be better suited.

 

[CapeCodYaz]

A buddy of mine is a savage Pats fan but always glass half empty type of guy, is firmly in he Brady camp when it comes to Brady v. BB and fancies himself a bit of a "guru" when it comes to his patriots evaluation. He issued the following post-mortem, which I will respond to when I have more time, but would enjoy folks thoughts. His screed is below.

______________________

All:

Whereas I have never been known to be brimming with positivity about the Patriots - even in the best of times – please kindly don’t get seduced by the optimism emanating from the team’s beat writers about the immediate future. Aside from the fact that said writers are entirely beholden to the team which, of course, undercuts their objectivity, the stark reality suggests that optimism should not be what you’re feeling right now, to wit, a granular look at the roster is quite alarming:

1. Let’s start with the defense:
2. The Patriots play a 4-2-5 base defense.
3. Your 2 DE’s are Judon and KVN, each of whom faded DRAMATICALLY over the season.
4. Judon, in particular, morphed from potential DPOY Candidate to a benched player in WC Weekend. Totally undisciplined + unimpactful. And do not look at his contract. He will also be 30 to start the season. Is it possible he was injured? Perhaps, but the declining play as the season wore on was reminiscent of what happened with the Ravens.
5. To me, it’s Adalius Thomas 2.0 – started like gangbusters, faded dramatically, albatross contract and, should the benching continue, doubt that he will take it kindly.
6. KVN had a good year but also faded and is 31. Perhaps a Salary Cap Casualty (5mm savings) but at 7.5 per is not unreasonable.
7. Winovich & Uche were invisible and Perkins is an unknown.
8. The Interior DL is a mess.
9. Whereas Barmore appears to be a stud as a pass rusher, he is certainly at this stage a liability against the run.
10. Guy is 32 and Godchaux was drastically overpaid and got pushed around a ton.
11. Figure they will both be Cap Casualties, for a Savings of 7mm or so.
12. Obviously, the Linebackers are a mess.
13. High is an all-time great Patriot but he is 32, SLOW, and could not tackle at the end of the year.
14. Bentley improved but is a Brandon Spikes type.
15. Would have been terrific in the 70’s but too slow and immobile for today’s game.
16. All too often, the “A” Gap Blitzes from High and Bentley did not get home.
17. McGrone is an unknown, McMillan is injury-prone, and Jennings has been a bust.
18. In the back-end, Phillips and Dugger are back & hopefully D-Mac is back too.
19. Has he lost a step? Sure.
20. But, he still has a bit left and he’s obviously a phenomenal leader. There should always be a place for him here.
21. JCJ will have to be franchised because there is no other path but that will be 17mm per.
22. His lack of effort against Buffalo was alarming.
23. Mills was ok as a 2 and at slot either Jones returns or you jettison him and use the 6mm in savings and get a new slot.
24. In sum, assuming KVN and D-Mac return (and JCJ is franchised), you still need 5 new starters on D (DT, DT, LB, LB, 2nd Corner).
25. And, KVN and Judon will only get even slower with age and the only players of consequence who are young are Dugger + Barmore.
26. When you watched other games WC weekend, was it not glaring just how slow the Pats are on D?
27. On offense:
28. The OL has issues.
29. Wynn is an average LT but is fragile; his 10.5 is guaranteed.
30. Karras is a FA, as is T. Brown.
31. Andrews and Mason are solid (Mason can be extended to create room).
32. Onwenu is an enigma. Nothing about this year for him made sense.
33. Herron was up + down & Grant and Cajuste have been epic fails.
34. Hence, the OL needs some change.
35. The RB room is solid.
36. At TE, I like Henry but truth be told he’s pretty soft and did not play commensurate with that contract.
37. Smith has obviously been an epic fail and his contract for the next 2 years is an albatross.
38. Bourne & Meyers are nice players but a better receiver is needed to push them both down the depth chart.
39. Aghelor’s release would free up 4.8mm in space but also 10mm in dead money.
40. Mac showed tons of poise and toughness.
41. More mobile than given credit for and nice touch on his ball but no real velocity to fire it into a tight window.
42. I like him but this coming year will be a major tell.
43. For the IBWT gang, without Tom in NE, Bill is 36-36.
44. Without Tom over his career, he is 73-81 (nearly a 10-year sampling).
45. Without Tom, he’s pretty ordinary.
46. He’s 70 and the team completely quit on him after the bye.
47. What alarmed me most about Buffalo was not just the talent disparity but the total, utter surrender.
48. And one cannot overlook the season-long gaffes in all 3 phases – punt blocks (3), Gunner not understanding how to play KR, delay of games, too many men in the huddle, false starts, etc.
49. His recent high draft picks (Rounds 1-3) prior to 2021 yielded Wynn, Michel, Duke Dawson, Harry, JoeJuan, Wino, Cajuste, Harris (Solid), Dugger, Uche, Jennings, Asiasi, and Keane.
50. His spending spree in 2021 yielded massive duds in Anderson (remember him), Aghelor, Smith, and Godchaux.
51. So, what you’re left with is a SLOW defense that needs a total overhaul and an offense that needs at least one major weapon and a make-over on the OL.
52. Not much Cap Room or Draft Capital with which to work and a 70-year old coach who is 2-7 against Miami & Buffalo since 2020 & 17-17 post Tom.

So is it time for a new coach?

 

[Bleedred]

So is it time for a new coach?

Yup. That's his thesis.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Reiss with a notebook roundup looking ahead based on how the season ended. One note that stuck out for me: 3 of Uche's 6 defensive snaps were on the Bills' kneel-down plays

View: https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1483809009480220683/photo/1

 

[Buck Showalter]

As usual - Reiss is the best IMO.

I'm with him on a couple of points....

1. Obviously the 'Judon situation' post bye is baffling.

2. Jonnu Smith's ineffectiveness was also an enigma to me.

3. The lack of use for Uche and Winovich even has Reiss (and others) questioning if it's coaching philosophy (as opposed to the player performance) that has rendered these draft picks to be sub-par.

It's going to be an interesting offseason for sure.

 

[BaseballJones]

This defense changed completely with the disappearance of Judon. He was a MONSTER the first 13 games, and the defense was elite. Then he went MIA and the defense tanked. I don't know if I'm blaming him, because maybe he was fighting through all kinds of issues at the end of the year and maybe he should be lauded for that instead of criticized. I don't know. But whatever the reason is, when he went south, the entire defense went south with him.

 

[Justthetippett]

As usual - Reiss is the best IMO.

I'm with him on a couple of points....

1. Obviously the 'Judon situation' post bye is baffling.

2. Jonnu Smith's ineffectiveness was also an enigma to me.

3. The lack of use for Uche and Winovich even has Reiss (and others) questioning if it's coaching philosophy (as opposed to the player performance) that has rendered these draft picks to be sub-par.

It's going to be an interesting offseason for sure.

I also found the Wino and Uche parts very interesting. Shows the Pats have invested in the LB position but, similar to the WRs we’ve drafted, it just hasn’t worked. I am hoping BB recognizes he’s got really one more chance at the mountaintop and spends these next few years innovating on the defensive side. I would say with all the rules changes it’s basically impossible to have a dominant defense, but it would be fun to see him come up with some new ideas.

 

[tims4wins]

More on the Special Teams, which finished 18th in Gosselin’s annual rankings. Worst since 2005 (21st).

View: https://twitter.com/mikereiss/status/1484213031185825798?s=21

 

[BaseballJones]

It was just a bizarre year for the special teams. I mean, Jake Bailey - who had been a STUD his first two years, dropped off this year. Though his average was fine:

- 2019: 44.9
- 2020: 48.7
- 2021: 47.3

It was his touchback percentage that was lousy:

- 2019: 58.5%
- 2020: 58.3%
- 2021: 46.7%

I'm not going to rewatch every game but I wonder if his much worse touchback percentage was on him, or on the special teams guys not being able to down the ball better.

But obviously it was three blocked punts that were disastrous, two of which were returned for TDs. That's insane.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Curran asks a slew of interesting questions in here ... including some that have been asked on SoSH this past season

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/do-patriots-need-more-clearly-defined-roles-coaching-staff

 

[tims4wins]

It was just a bizarre year for the special teams. I mean, Jake Bailey - who had been a STUD his first two years, dropped off this year. Though his average was fine:

- 2019: 44.9
- 2020: 48.7
- 2021: 47.3

It was his touchback percentage that was lousy:

- 2019: 58.5%
- 2020: 58.3%
- 2021: 46.7%

I'm not going to rewatch every game but I wonder if his much worse touchback percentage was on him, or on the special teams guys not being able to down the ball better.

But obviously it was three blocked punts that were disastrous, two of which were returned for TDs. That's insane.

I don't think those numbers are correct for touchback %. Way too high.

 

[BaseballJones]

I don't think those numbers are correct for touchback %. Way too high.

Wait my bad. I meant those are for kickoffs, not punts. Which is still bad though, unless they deliberately tried to keep more kickoffs in play.

 

[BaseballJones]

More Bailey stats:

Net avg
- 2019: 41.3
- 2020: 45.6
- 2021: 39.6

Inside 20%
- 2019: 44.4%
- 2020: 56.4%
- 2021: 46.9%

Bailey's rankings this year:
- Avg: #7
- Avg net: #15
- Avg return yards: #16

So his leg was as good as ever, but the coverage was pretty poor.

Bailey had 3 punts blocked in just 49 punt attempts. The rest of the entire NFL had 9 punts blocked in 2,017 punt attempts.

NE: 1 punt blocked every 16.3 attempts.
Rest: 1 punt blocked every 224.1 attempts.

UGH

 

[4 6 3 DP]

The Curran article is interesting, but at the end of the day, the frustrating thing as I see it is that it seems a large number of guys are brought into this organization for fit purposes, particularly on defense, and yet when they arrive, don't fit. Belichick makes the point in the special that he did with Nick Saban that there's too much emphasis on analytics and not enough on whether a guy can tackle (paraphrase), and to a degree I buy that but ultimately that means the guy picking the groceries has to be able to identify fit. And that simply is not happening.

I can't stand Josh McDaniels but to get 7 wins out of cam Newtons corpse and then 10 out of a team with a rookie QB, a mediocre line, and a bunch of #3 receivers is an achievement, period.

I got slammed in a game thread for saying jcj didn't look like a #1 to me, and I think I would rephrase it to he's a capable #1 in a stronger secondary with good depth, which this one really didn't have in the late stages of the season.

They need a Chandler Jones/Hightower draft in the worst way. Not elite but they have to add immediate starters in the front seven, and then hope that Phillips and dugger can be added to Jackson and Jones and Mills and hold up, I just can't see where they should spend resources other than jcj if they are going to fix that front 7.

If they can do that, then it's basically Mac making the leap and getting him either an elite #1 guy or at worst someone who can consistently get open at the intermediate level. If you could get Ridley for less than a 2 I'd do it in a heartbeat, I think it costs a 2 and that means no pick they can put into the front 7.

End of the day, this team is not as good as buffalo or KC and as such while maybe they lost a week early from what we would have liked, I'm not too negative about the future, just hopeful that the pro personnel guys have a better fa then last year

 

[EddieYost]

A buddy of mine is a savage Pats fan but always glass half empty type of guy, is firmly in he Brady camp when it comes to Brady v. BB and fancies himself a bit of a "guru" when it comes to his patriots evaluation. He issued the following post-mortem, which I will respond to when I have more time, but would enjoy folks thoughts. His screed is below.

______________________

All:

Whereas I have never been known to be brimming with positivity about the Patriots - even in the best of times – please kindly don’t get seduced by the optimism emanating from the team’s beat writers about the immediate future. Aside from the fact that said writers are entirely beholden to the team which, of course, undercuts their objectivity, the stark reality suggests that optimism should not be what you’re feeling right now, to wit, a granular look at the roster is quite alarming:

1. Let’s start with the defense:
2. The Patriots play a 4-2-5 base defense.
3. Your 2 DE’s are Judon and KVN, each of whom faded DRAMATICALLY over the season.
4. Judon, in particular, morphed from potential DPOY Candidate to a benched player in WC Weekend. Totally undisciplined + unimpactful. And do not look at his contract. He will also be 30 to start the season. Is it possible he was injured? Perhaps, but the declining play as the season wore on was reminiscent of what happened with the Ravens.
5. To me, it’s Adalius Thomas 2.0 – started like gangbusters, faded dramatically, albatross contract and, should the benching continue, doubt that he will take it kindly.
6. KVN had a good year but also faded and is 31. Perhaps a Salary Cap Casualty (5mm savings) but at 7.5 per is not unreasonable.
7. Winovich & Uche were invisible and Perkins is an unknown.
8. The Interior DL is a mess.
9. Whereas Barmore appears to be a stud as a pass rusher, he is certainly at this stage a liability against the run.
10. Guy is 32 and Godchaux was drastically overpaid and got pushed around a ton.
11. Figure they will both be Cap Casualties, for a Savings of 7mm or so.
12. Obviously, the Linebackers are a mess.
13. High is an all-time great Patriot but he is 32, SLOW, and could not tackle at the end of the year.
14. Bentley improved but is a Brandon Spikes type.
15. Would have been terrific in the 70’s but too slow and immobile for today’s game.
16. All too often, the “A” Gap Blitzes from High and Bentley did not get home.
17. McGrone is an unknown, McMillan is injury-prone, and Jennings has been a bust.
18. In the back-end, Phillips and Dugger are back & hopefully D-Mac is back too.
19. Has he lost a step? Sure.
20. But, he still has a bit left and he’s obviously a phenomenal leader. There should always be a place for him here.
21. JCJ will have to be franchised because there is no other path but that will be 17mm per.
22. His lack of effort against Buffalo was alarming.
23. Mills was ok as a 2 and at slot either Jones returns or you jettison him and use the 6mm in savings and get a new slot.
24. In sum, assuming KVN and D-Mac return (and JCJ is franchised), you still need 5 new starters on D (DT, DT, LB, LB, 2nd Corner).
25. And, KVN and Judon will only get even slower with age and the only players of consequence who are young are Dugger + Barmore.
26. When you watched other games WC weekend, was it not glaring just how slow the Pats are on D?
27. On offense:
28. The OL has issues.
29. Wynn is an average LT but is fragile; his 10.5 is guaranteed.
30. Karras is a FA, as is T. Brown.
31. Andrews and Mason are solid (Mason can be extended to create room).
32. Onwenu is an enigma. Nothing about this year for him made sense.
33. Herron was up + down & Grant and Cajuste have been epic fails.
34. Hence, the OL needs some change.
35. The RB room is solid.
36. At TE, I like Henry but truth be told he’s pretty soft and did not play commensurate with that contract.
37. Smith has obviously been an epic fail and his contract for the next 2 years is an albatross.
38. Bourne & Meyers are nice players but a better receiver is needed to push them both down the depth chart.
39. Aghelor’s release would free up 4.8mm in space but also 10mm in dead money.
40. Mac showed tons of poise and toughness.
41. More mobile than given credit for and nice touch on his ball but no real velocity to fire it into a tight window.
42. I like him but this coming year will be a major tell.
43. For the IBWT gang, without Tom in NE, Bill is 36-36.
44. Without Tom over his career, he is 73-81 (nearly a 10-year sampling).
45. Without Tom, he’s pretty ordinary.
46. He’s 70 and the team completely quit on him after the bye.
47. What alarmed me most about Buffalo was not just the talent disparity but the total, utter surrender.
48. And one cannot overlook the season-long gaffes in all 3 phases – punt blocks (3), Gunner not understanding how to play KR, delay of games, too many men in the huddle, false starts, etc.
49. His recent high draft picks (Rounds 1-3) prior to 2021 yielded Wynn, Michel, Duke Dawson, Harry, JoeJuan, Wino, Cajuste, Harris (Solid), Dugger, Uche, Jennings, Asiasi, and Keane.
50. His spending spree in 2021 yielded massive duds in Anderson (remember him), Aghelor, Smith, and Godchaux.
51. So, what you’re left with is a SLOW defense that needs a total overhaul and an offense that needs at least one major weapon and a make-over on the OL.
52. Not much Cap Room or Draft Capital with which to work and a 70-year old coach who is 2-7 against Miami & Buffalo since 2020 & 17-17 post Tom.

I cannot read this due to the bizarre mixture of bullet list and essay format.

 

[EddieYost]

Wait my bad. I meant those are for kickoffs, not punts. Which is still bad though, unless they deliberately tried to keep more kickoffs in play.

I am assuming when he wanted to kick it in the end zone, he was able to. To me it seemed like at times they were trying to force a return to give them worse starting field position.

 

[tims4wins]

I am assuming when he wanted to kick it in the end zone, he was able to. To me it seemed like at times they were trying to force a return to give them worse starting field position.

Fully agree with this take. It was kind of obvious in real time.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Fully agree with this take. It was kind of obvious in real time.

That's the problem with assessing punting or kickoff efficiency based solely on raw data. It's an incomplete look.

What were the weather conditions? What kicks were the result or situational/strategic decisions? How much was Bailey's season impacted by the lingering issues in his knee? You can say these "show up" in the final numbers, and that's true to an extent. But to go a step further and suggest that the final numbers define the season seems lacking context.

For instance, one thing we saw less of this season were those kicks that Slater/Bethel would down inside the 10 with seeming regularity. How much of that is Bailey, how much of that is the play of the gunners and how much of that is opponents recognizing that strength of the Patriots in that area and working to keep it from happening? Probably all of those factors and yet, statistically, only Bailey gets assed for it.

 

[Saints Rest]

My senses is that the Pat's ST ratings get dinged primarily for these reasons:

• Blocked punts.
• Blocked/missed PATs.
• No big returns on KR or PR.

 

[Phil Plantier]

They need a Chandler Jones/Hightower draft in the worst way.

I'm hoping for getting a couple of underutilized linebackers/d-linemen in free agency, like Vrabel and Ninkovich.

I'm also still hoping that one of Uche or Perkins steps up.

 

[Saints Rest]

I have hope that McMillan is that guy.

 

[mauf]

Was Aghalor the biggest single investment made last offseason? If not, it was close. The post from Bleedred’s friend is (I think) the only one here that mentions him. Talk about disappearing.

 

[JokersWildJIMED]

Fully agree with this take. It was kind of obvious in real time.

Agreed, but their kickoff coverage was lacking the entire year (so you got to question the strategy) as they continually allowed teams to advance beyond the 25. Their kickoff returning team was horrible as well, as Gunner proved he was not an effective KO returner and continually made terrible decisions returning kicks out of the end zone. They rarely returned any punts but their punt coverage was decent and of course Folk was excellent, leading to an overall ST grade of below average by Gosselin.

 

[tims4wins]

Agreed, but their kickoff coverage was lacking the entire year (so you got to question the strategy) as they continually allowed teams to advance beyond the 25. Their kickoff returning team was horrible as well, as Gunner proved he was not an effective KO returner and continually made terrible decisions returning kicks out of the end zone. They rarely returned any punts but their punt coverage was decent and of course Folk was excellent, leading to an overall ST grade of below average by Gosselin.

Right it can be a great strategy if you execute it well, but too many times they gave up returns past the 20-25.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Was Aghalor the biggest single investment made last offseason? If not, it was close. The post from Bleedred’s friend is (I think) the only one here that mentions him. Talk about disappearing.

Not really close, no. He was a 2 year deal with only $16m in guarantees.

The biggest investments were Judon and the two TEs, all over $25M guaranteed.

 

[Bleedred]

I shot my buddy the following:

"I love you bro, but this stat: “a 73-81 record without Tom,” is bullshit radio-talk show host level of analysis that seriously calls into question your credibility as an evaluator. By your standard, the success of the Patriots during the Tom years is all related to Tom and BB gets no credit? Did the Patriots team in 2001 that had “Tom” at the controls win all those games because of Tom, or because of BB the coach and the defense that he built that shut down the Greatest Show on Turf? And the team that held the Los Angeles Rams to 3 points in Superbowl LIII and only scored 13 points with Tom at the helm (and no TD passes); was that victory all attributable to Tom or perhaps the defense and the game plan devised by BB had something to do with it? My point being is that Tom deserves more credit than any one individual (including BB) for the Patriots success, but BB was a massive reason why the Patriots were dominant for 20 years. To deny this is foolish, you’re better than that. Drop that stupid line from your analysis. "

Hope you’re well.

 

[BaseballJones]

Belichick took over a Browns team that had gone 3-13 the year before, and slowly built them up.

Year 1: 6-10
Year 2: 7-9
Year 3: 7-9

Then came the breakthrough in Year 4: 11-5 and made the playoffs. They beat the Patriots in the WC round before losing to the Steelers in the divisional round. Everything was looking up for them. Then their stupid owner decides to move the team and all hell breaks loose. It's a nearly impossible coaching situation and they fall back to 5-11. But clearly, he was building something really good in Cleveland.

Then he comes to NE and takes over a team that had been on a decline: 11-5 in 1996, 10-6 in 1997, 9-7 in 1998, and 8-8 in 1999. He begins the rebuilding process and predictably, the first year is ugly at 5-11. But he brings in the right guys and begins to implement his system, and in 2001 the dynasty is launched.

With the Patriots, he's gone:

5-13 before Brady became the starter as the rebuild began
14-6 with the team he built with Brady as the main guy, but in games that Brady didn't play in (this includes an 11-5 year with Matt freaking Cassel at QB)
17-16 as they've started to rebuild again following the departure of Brady, with the corpse of Cam Newton and a true rookie starting at QB

So I dunno...31-22 in non-Brady games since Brady became the starter, with Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett, Matt Cassel, Cam Newton, and Mac Jones (a rookie) as his QBs.

I think it's pretty clear that that overall W-L record without Brady is a pile of crap. OBVIOUSLY he's going to have more success with the greatest QB of all time at the helm. DUH.

 

[Bleedred]

HIS RESPONSE: Bill’s greatness over 20-years with Tom as QB and his mediocrity without him are not mutually exclusive, rather, whereas Bill is no doubt an outstanding coach, his record with the Bledsoe’s, Kosar’s, Testeverde’s, Cam Newton’s, Mac Jones’s, Jimmy G’s, Brissett’s, Casell’s is….ordinary. The 73-81 record is nearly a 10-year sampling and is difficult to overlook. Is Bill a great strategist? Sure. Was Tom the sole reason why the Team had the success that it did for 20 years? Of course not. The point of the record citation is not to discredit Bill for the 20-Years but it’s to point out that, as with the case with ALL great coaches, without the star QB, they tend to look….ordinary. Andy Reid was deemed to be a good strategist and a terrible clock manager and then….Mahomes. The list goes on & on.

MY RESPONSE TO HIS RESPONSE: It’s a silly point In time that neglects dozens of other factors. It’s disingenuous at best and doesn’t belong in your otherwise reasonably fair evaluation. I’d argue that BB’s success with the execrable Vinnie T, with a rookie and not yet formed Mac Jones and his success with Matt Cassell and Jimmy G is quite more than ordinary. You’re just flat dead wrong on this. Respectfully.

 

[Euclis20]

I'm fairly optimistic going forward on our offensive skill players. Obviously we had a rookie QB, and 4/6 of our top pass catches (Bourne, Henry, Aghalor, Smith) were in their first year in the system, and should all still be in their prime next year. The other 2 were Meyers (just 25 in his 3rd year) and Bolden. Stevenson/Harris combined for over about 1800 yards and 20 TDs, and are just 23/24. It's not unreasonable to expect improvement from each of these positions given their age and experience level with the system, although 3rd down back is a big question mark (if White comes back healthy he's a pretty clear improvement over Bolden, but that's up in the air). I don't see any future pro-bowlers here next year (Mac and Stevenson are the only possibilities that I can see) but this isn't a bad group.

 

[Saints Rest]

I'd love to hear about Mac recreating the Brady Boot Camps, with all his skill position players somewhere far from Foxboro. Get Bourne, Agholor, Meyers, Henry, Smith, Harris and Stephenson, plus anyone else who might still be on roster (or new FA's or draftees) and spend a few days bonding and learning each other's thought processes.