Week 7 NFL Game Thread: We’re on to the AFCCG Preview.

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
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Sep 27, 2016
22,121
Pittsburgh, PA
Jacoby Brissett touchdown drives today ... 94, 75 and 74 yards
Remember when we thought we got the better of the Dorsett trade? We sent them an average NFL starting QB, with upside, on a rookie contract. Sure it was win-win - we couldn't get full value out of Jacoby for obvious reasons, and have gotten more value out of Dorsett - but man that could end up being a massive win on their end. At least we can console ourselves that it wasn't Ryan Grigson on the other end getting the credit and bragging about taking Belichick to the cleaners.
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
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Sep 27, 2016
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HOW THE FUCK DO YOU LOSE TEN YARDS ON FIRST AND GOAL FROM THE ONE
SoSH demands answers. Now, we won't get those answers, but at least we're demanding ones to the right questions.
Yes. [Simmons] went in on [the post-Luck Colts] hard in the face of scoffing and laughter. It’s beautiful to behold. Reminds me of something that we do not talk about on this website.
White privilege?
Hesus Atl is a dumpster fire. Time to tear that down to the studs this week.

I feel bad when Bears fans boo Mitch Trubisky. It’s not his fault that he sucks. I’m sure he’d give anything not to.
I mean, it's definitionally "his fault" that he sucks. That said, he didn't trade three picks to draft himself.
Wentz bringing the suck. Just stared down that entire rout.
You're not wrong.
 

BlackJack

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Oct 11, 2007
3,457
There was a stat last night that 4-3 teams make the playoffs 51% of the time beginning with new divisional play in 2002, vs 14% for 3-4 teams. I thought that sounded crazy, so I had my brother who works for ESPN do some further research.

Since 2002, there have been 140 3-3 teams. Of those 140 teams, 67 won their 7th game to get to 4-3. Of those 67, 37 made the playoffs (55%).

73 lost their 7th game to fall to 3-4. Of those 73, 11 made the playoffs (15%).

So yeah, apparently there is a huge difference between 3-4 and 4-3, so hopefully the Eagles are screwed.
Is it really that big of a difference between 3-4 and 4-3 or is it more that winning game #7 when you're a (more or less) .500 team is better than losing game #7?

Focusing on the 3-3 teams excludes teams that are 4-2 and lose game 7, and teams that are 2-4 and win game 7. When you add in the 4-2 teams that lose game 7 the percentage drop to 51% from 55% That seems like a big hit, although obviously we're talking about increasingly smaller sample sizes so maybe the percentages aren't really that relevant.


Remember when we thought we got the better of the Dorsett trade? We sent them an average NFL starting QB, with upside, on a rookie contract. Sure it was win-win - we couldn't get full value out of Jacoby for obvious reasons, and have gotten more value out of Dorsett - but man that could end up being a massive win on their end. At least we can console ourselves that it wasn't Ryan Grigson on the other end getting the credit and bragging about taking Belichick to the cleaners.
While it's undeniably true that Brissett has been good, it's hard to overstate the importance of a good offensive line. I don't know that Brissett looks as good if he had the Patriots' OLine instead. And I think it's likely that Brady would look a heck of a lot better if he had Indy's line.
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
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Sep 27, 2016
22,121
Pittsburgh, PA
While it's undeniably true that Brissett has been good, it's hard to overstate the importance of a good offensive line. I don't know that Brissett looks as good if he had the Patriots' OLine instead. And I think it's likely that Brady would look a heck of a lot better if he had Indy's line.
I'd call it a necessary but not sufficient condition. Oakland, for example, is #3 at run blocking, #7 at pass protection, and Carr keeps on fumbling or throwing picks. Giants are #11 in both, etc. Bad line play can make you underrate a QB, but good line play doesn't suddenly make a QB avoid bad decisions and make more-precise throws. What's impressed me most about Brissett is how solid his decision-making is. He's not going to make jaw-dropping Aaron Rodgers-style throws, but he makes the highest-percentage play really really often.

You don't see that with, say, Jared Goff, who can throw missiles but can be misled, or decides "I can jam it in there!" a bunch of times a game. Sometimes he's right, but sometimes he'll fuck up a makeable play.
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
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Sep 27, 2016
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Pittsburgh, PA
Who's this "we" of which you speak? I remember the conversation being split
Perhaps you're right, I'd have to dig up the thread. But at the time I remember people being astounded that we got even a warm NFL-level body back for our third-string QB - and they attributed it to just having a Patriots halo effect on anyone playing for the team. "former first-rounder getting a chance to make good!" was one summary of Dorsett that I remember. Seemed like lottery tickets going both ways, frankly, but at the time I thought SoSH's opinion is that we got something for what was, at the time, almost of no value to us. And then 8 weeks later we unloaded Jimmy too and our QB depth was down to "uh, Hoyer?". But in the moment it felt like dealing from a position of such strength that we gave up almost nothing.

You're right in the sense that neither side was getting a sure-thing proven NFL difference-maker. Both Brissett and Dorsett were probability distributions, with failure being the most probable outcome. But at the time I'm not sure anyone foresaw Brissett fighting his way into being a credible starter, rather than just an injury emergency option, whereas that was at least plausible with Dorsett. And if you were valuing them today, Brissett's value (especially on his 2/$30 contract) would dwarf that of Dorsett, competent though he might be.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Apr 22, 2016
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And if you were valuing them today, Brissett's value (especially on his 2/$30 contract) would dwarf that of Dorsett, competent though he might be.
Sure, but Brissett would never have had that value on the Pats because he would have seen no playing time as Brady's backup. If Brissett had stayed on the Pats, his current value would probably be more or less the exact same as it was at the time he was traded.
 

Over Guapo Grande

panty merchant
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Nov 29, 2005
4,499
Worcester
Sure, but Brissett would never have had that value on the Pats because he would have seen no playing time as Brady's backup. If Brissett had stayed on the Pats, his current value would probably be more or less the exact same as it was at the time he was traded.
Maybe they could have traded him for Larry Fitz.
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
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Sep 27, 2016
22,121
Pittsburgh, PA
Thanks. My quick summary of opinions there:

Pats won / optimism for Dorsett / pessimism for Brissett (25): 3, 4, 9, 15, 16/33, 18, 25, 29, 32, 34, 48 (?), 53/58/75, 63, 70, 74, 76, 83, 86, 88, 89, 92, 94, 95, 101, 108
Neutral (14): 5, 7, 8, 21, 39, 42, 45, 47, 51, 54, 77, 78, 90, 98
Colts won / pessimism for Dorsett / optimism for Brissett (4): 11, 20/26, 52, 60
Other / Notable:
- 27 (E5 Yaz): "I'm not a big fan of tempting fate"
- 40 (Ed HIllel): "The Colts don't need a long-term starter, but a long-term backup. However, I do think Brady's gone after this year. Won't be his last year in the NFL, though."

So a clear majority of posters liked the deal, and only a handful disliked it. The general tone was "the Patriots were likely to cut JB, we got someone for him who might start every day and Brissett might not even play a down, we got something instead of nothing, great use of resources". Nobody was jumping-up-and-down excited except for Pandemonium67, staz and Marciano, but I think it's safe to say BBTL thought we won the deal.
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
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Sep 27, 2016
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Pittsburgh, PA
Sure, but Brissett would never have had that value on the Pats because he would have seen no playing time as Brady's backup. If Brissett had stayed on the Pats, his current value would probably be more or less the exact same as it was at the time he was traded.
Insurance has value even if you never use it, for the same reason that options have value. Would Brissett have done better than Hoyer if Brady had eaten shit anytime in the last 2 seasons since Garoppolo was traded? I'd have to say, on present evidence, that the answer is "probably". He's playing better right now - in terms of decisions, precision, even some DB misdirection - than I've ever seen Hoyer play.

I agree with you in that we wouldn't have gotten more for him at any point than we ended up getting in Dorsett, at least not meaningfully more (and possibly well less as his rookie contract approached expiry, unless he saw time as the starter). But that doesn't mean he would have delivered no value to us in a post-Jimmy world, either.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
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Apr 12, 2005
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I like Jacoby Brissett, and am happy for the guy, but I've got to beat the dead horse I've beaten around here a million times. I'll give you 2 stat lines:

2 wins, 10 losses, 12 games, 167/282 59.22%, 81.3 rating, 6.03 y/a
7 wins, 5 losses, 12 games, 166/273 60.81%, 85.9 rating, 7.29 y/a

Now, neither of those are very large sample sizes, but one is Jacoby's stat line when he plays outdoors, and the 2nd is when he plays indoors. Playing indoors turns guys like Matt Ryan into Drew Brees, and playing outdoors turns guys like Drew Brees into Matt Ryan.

I'm not saying Brissett won't be fine, but the jury is very much still out as to whether he can show up in a place like Foxboro or Arrowhead in January and lead his team to victory.
 

Bowhemian

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Nov 10, 2015
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Other than yards per attempt, his passing stats are identical. I agree that that particular stat helps teams win games. But I am not sure that would be worth 5 wins over 12 games.