Week 6 - Chiefs @ Patriots

Ralphwiggum

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The Zombie Pats are at it again. Just 11 days ago they were 1-2 and almost in a must-win situation as the 3-0 Dolphins came to Gillette. Here we sit less than two weeks later and the Pats are back where they are accustomed to being, in first place in the AFC East. But, while convincing wins against the Dolphins and Colts were good to see in order to know that the Pats aren't bad yet, we don't really know whether they are good yet either. Seems like the perfect time for a test game against one of the big boys in the league.

Enter the Chiefs. 5-0 and looking every bit like the best team in the AFC, and one of top couple of teams in the League. Pat Mahomes looks like the real deal, a cannon for an arm with accuracy and can make every throw he needs to make, and he can make plays with his legs too. Add in the fact that he has weapons all over the field, and this offense looks like a nightmare match-up for any team, never mind the Pats D who has struggled at times with every team this year who didn't have Ryan Tannehill at QB. This is the same Chiefs team that absolutely gutted the Pats last year in a nationally televised game, except they have upgraded from Smith to Mahomes at the most important position on the field.

How to slow down the Chiefs? Can we realistically expect the Pats to do that? Or is this just going to be like the Super Bowl where it is the first team to 40 and let's hope the other guy makes one more mistake on offense than you do. The Pats looked great on offense last week and would have looked even greater without a couple of fluky tipped INTs. But, fluky or not, that stuff has to be gone this week. Mistakes on offense letting the Chiefs defense off the hook is not a recipe for success this week.

On the flip side the Pats should be able to move the ball and put up points on the Chiefs D, so all of the football world is expecting a shootout . . . which probably means we'll get a 17-14 game or something.

The good news is this game is at home. I am excited to see the Pats offense continue to come together with Edelman having another week under his belt, and the continued emergence (hopefully) of Josh Gordon. A loss isn't the end of the world for the Pats playoff chances but will put them effectively 4 games behind the Chiefs for the top spot in the AFC and with losses to the Jags and Chiefs, a bye starts looking a little tough. A win on the other hand and it is time to start talking about how the Dynasty may not be over just quite yet.

Go Pats! Fuck the Chiefs.
 

Saints Rest

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This would appear to be a week where one would really hope that the Blade crowd would be in peak voice. But I fear that the Sox game may act to reduce crowd noise A) by some regulars being at Fenway rather than Gillette, and B) as a distraction for those at the stadium who might be monitoring the Sox.
This is also the time for someone to trot out the “Belichick vs first-time QBs.”
 

Super Nomario

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Good test for Pats D. They did OK against Frank Reich's depleted Colts but have given up 40+ to Reid's teams twice in the last four seasons, plus 40 to Reid disciple Doug Peterson. If they can keep KC in the 20's, I'll be pretty happy.
 

Captaincoop

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I was shocked to see that line, but as a Pats fan you kind of have to love it.

Vegas isn't in the business of giving away money, and KC +3.5 looks like free money to the casual bettor. We know how that usually ends up.
 

BaseballJones

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This game has all the markings of a 45-42 kind of deal. As Ralphwiggum pointed out, this probably means both defenses go crazy and it's a 17-14 finish.

I also think that it's impossible to not take the Chiefs with the 3.5 points. I think a good bet is for KC to win outright.

But all that is to say that it probably means that the Patriots win by two touchdowns.

I mean, who the heck knows what's going to happen. I'd like to think they find a way to slow Mahomes down, and the Pats' offense puts up 38 again, like they have the last two weeks. KC's defense is really bad, allowing 25.8 points, 461.8 yards, and 28.4 first downs per game. On the road they've allowed 29.3 points and 467 yards per game. They managed to hold Jacksonville to just 14 points last week but that's due to the 5 turnovers they caused. In that game they allowed 502 yards, which is more (at home) than NE allowed Jacksonville to have (in Jax).

It seems really hard to imagine how KC's defense is going to slow down the Patriots' offense. NE should put up 35+ on this team. Will that be enough though? The Pats are averaging 34.3 points a game at home. Thankfully the game is in Foxboro.

I still think KC wins, because they seem to give NE all sorts of problems. But it wouldn't shock me to see NE do what NE does and assert themselves as still the best team in the AFC.
 

pvg44

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Very long suffering Chiefs fan here. I honestly started rooting for them on January 4, 1970, age 4 years and 6 days. My Dad liked Len Dawson and thus so did I. Little did I know that day would be the pinnacle of success. I should probably start the adopt-a-team thread for them.

Regarding this game, Reid does probably the best job of any coach in the NFL to scheme against Belichik. The spread offense has allowed KC to move the ball up and down the field and score on big plays without getting bogged down in the red zone. The playoff game a few years ago was the big exception in that KC dominated the clock but scored only 17 points. From a NE defensive standpoint, if they can get KC into red zone possessions they (NE) will probably win the game by forcing field goals.

On the other side of the ball, KC's defense is to bend as far as possible without breaking. They have no interior pass rush or presence in the middle of any kind and I expect NE to exploit that. And with Houston injured, the only real pass rush will come on the outside from Dee Ford, who will be a factor until his inevitable 3rd quarter [groin strain/oblique strain/lower back injury]. Chris Jones may pose a problem but he will probably be double-teamed. Somehow KC's D is 2nd in the NFL in 3rd conversion % (~29%); I'm befuddled as to how this can be given their inability to rush the pass, stop the run, or tackle.
 

BusRaker

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I definitely think the punters could be deactivated this week, but with two bend-and-don't break defenses I see a lot of prolonged drives with some ending up as field goals, thus a very high first down to score ratio and maybe 20 something to 20 something at the end of the night.
 

j44thor

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Loving all the Kelce is better than Gronk talk. Also love Houston not practicing yet. If he can't go Brady should be in a rocking chair most of the night.

Key will be long sustained drives by NE offense to tire out KC D and keep their D fresh for the 4th Q when they will need to make a play or two. That and red zone execution on both sides of the ball.

Pats defensive game plan will be fascinating. You need to keep KC in front of you yet they can pick you apart with all those weapons. Hunt also has a very favorable matchup against our LBs.

My guess is Gilmore on Watkins 1-1 most of the game allowing them to bracket Kelce and put a S over the top on Hill while the corner presses him. Clayborn being disciplined is also going to be key. Too many times he has lost contain rushing the passer. If he does that Sunday night Mahommes could rush for 100yds while throwing for another 300.
 

soxhop411

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Everyone is questionable.

No doubtful or out players.

DT Malcom Brown - Knee (LP)
WR Josh Gordon - Hamstring (LP)
DE Geneo Grissom - Ankle (LP)
TE Rob Gronkowski - Ankle (LP)
WR Chris Hogan - Thigh (LP)
RB Sony Michel - Knee (LP)
CB Eric Rowe - Groin (LP)
DT Danny Shelton - Elbow (LP)
DE John Simon - Shoulder (LP)”
 

Soxy Brown

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Soxy Brown

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36-2? Meh!
That just goes to further show why it's a cherry picked stat. Just say that the Patriots are 56-6 at home when Edelman plays. Or say that Brady's record at home is 129-22. Those are more honest stats and equally (if not more) impressive.

There's no need to stretch the truth to say that beating the Brady/Belichick Patriots in Foxboro is hard. Everyone knows that and the facts speak for themselves.
 

dcmissle

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Have a good feeling about this one. Did not think I would a couple weeks back.
 

SMU_Sox

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Good test for Pats D. They did OK against Frank Reich's depleted Colts but have given up 40+ to Reid's teams twice in the last four seasons, plus 40 to Reid disciple Doug Peterson. If they can keep KC in the 20's, I'll be pretty happy.
This is where I’m at too. I’m pessimistic they can hold them in the 20’s. I want to be wrong.

Joe West will be the crew chief
He’s on the IR with a deeply bruised right breast.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Gonna need to force 2-3 turnovers to keep KC within striking distance. I think their ability to challenge defenses outside the hash marks with their speed is gonna be a massive problem for a defense that lacks sideline to sideline speed at LB and DE.

They’re gonna have to ask a lot of the tackles to keep Hunt - who I don’t expect them to load the box on because of Hill and Watkins’ speed - from running roughshod.
 

DrewDawg

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That just goes to further show why it's a cherry picked stat. Just say that the Patriots are 56-6 at home when Edelman plays. Or say that Brady's record at home is 129-22. Those are more honest stats and equally (if not more) impressive.

There's no need to stretch the truth to say that beating the Brady/Belichick Patriots in Foxboro is hard. Everyone knows that and the facts speak for themselves.
Eh, it's still a pretty cool stat to find some combination of players that is 36-0.
 

Ale Xander

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I'm calling Pats 41, Chiefs 33. Pats D with a lot of bending.

Gronk 12/197/3
White 9/145/1 (receiving)
Brady goes for 502
 

Deathofthebambino

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I think the Pats need to treat the KC offense the same way they did the Miami offense. Like Miami, KC has a ton of speed on the outside, and in that game, the Pats basically dared Miami to throw it underneath or run the ball. They did neither. If there is one flaw I've noticed in Mahomes game, he's always looking for the home run ball downfield. As a result, he tends to hold it a bit longer than he should sometimes. Take away the downfield throws, and keep him contained in the pocket, and I think the pass rush can get to him, and/or he may get frustrated and make a mistake. If they start dinking and dunking and running the ball, so be it, give up those yards and stiffen up the red zone, but you can't let them get going with big plays.
 

dcmissle

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Gonna need to force 2-3 turnovers to keep KC within striking distance. I think their ability to challenge defenses outside the hash marks with their speed is gonna be a massive problem for a defense that lacks sideline to sideline speed at LB and DE.

They’re gonna have to ask a lot of the tackles to keep Hunt - who I don’t expect them to load the box on because of Hill and Watkins’ speed - from running roughshod.
I thought not. I thought we could run the ball down their throats and shorten this game.

Then came the Michel news.
 

Soxy Brown

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KC's pass defense is awful. They've allowed three 400+ yard passers in five games. Even if Michel was 100%, I doubt the Pats would try to run the ball down their throat and shorten the game. Brady should shred this team.
 

Ed Hillel

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KC's pass defense is awful. They've allowed three 400+ yard passers in five games. Even if Michel was 100%, I doubt the Pats would try to run the ball down their throat and shorten the game. Brady should shred this team.
Yeah, you could just as easily flip the “need turnovers” thing from KC’s perspective. This Pats offense is probably at least as good as KC’s as now constructed.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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Bi-Coastal, for the time being

snowmanny

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I'm calling Pats 41, Chiefs 33. Pats D with a lot of bending.

Gronk 12/197/3
White 9/145/1 (receiving)
Brady goes for 502
I like the result you predict but you could not have picked a more annoying score