Week 2 Pre-Game Thread: Seahawks

[SMU_Sox]

Seahawks are coming cross country to play a feisty Pats defense. Who is ready for a 2-0 start before the bottom falls out? I know I am.

Seahawks right now have some major issues on the right side of their OL. George Fant is out. Abe Lucas (my dude) is still on PUP with a nasty knee issue (sincerely hope that gets better). Stone Forsythe is the current RT. He is ok in pass pro but struggles vs speed. I think Uche would give him issues. RG Anthony Bradford (also my dude) is such a mauler as a run blocker but his pass pro is still a huge concern. LG Laken Tomlinson is coming off back to back sub-par seasons with the Jets and is 32. He is also not a good pass protector. So right now you have Charles Cross and Connor Williams (LT and C) who look good but the rest of the line is a huge ?.

I think the Seahawks will be able to run on us and it will be up to Bentley and Tavai to tackle Walker in space which is not an easy task. Walker is an excellent RB. Defensively our slot options are going to be crossed out all day because of Witherspoon. We might be able to attack outside though... but the issue is JB doesn't like to throw outside as much. It seems to me like this will be a lower scoring game. Seattle doesn't really have the horses to do as much damage to our OL. Leonard Williams will be a handful of course.

I think this one will be something like 19-17 Patriots or 19-17 Seahawks.

 

[SMU_Sox]

On defense one thing Mike Macdonald is known for is creepers and sim pressures. What he likes to do is line up 5-6 guys on the LOS and make the offense guess who is coming. It is effective against any OL but especially against newer and/or younger OLs. Given the issue Robinson had and Sow has had vs these in the past (including Robinson in week 1) I expect a bunch of QB pressures. Unblocked QB pressures at that...

The other thing Macdonald likes to do is have guys drop into where your hots are. Imagine the QB thinking, ok the slot is coming off the right side to pass rush me, so now I have an empty space there to throw the ball to. But wait, now there is the edge player in that space who easily intercepts the ball. Macdonald will play mind games like that. Lots of zone coverage too. Douglas BTW is the least effective against zone coverage.

We might have a hell of a time moving the ball through the air again this Sunday.

@DanoooME what is the state of the Seahawks run defense? I don't really have a read or a take on that at all. What was week 1 like on defense for you all?

 

[DanoooME]

Run defense was much better than last year. They held the Broncos RBs to 20 carries for 64 yards. Nix managed to go 5 for 35 to make their overall numbers look better. It's definitely not perfect, but Denver has invested a lot of money in their OL and their RBs are at least average if not better, so overall it was a good performance. They had some growing pains on defense overall, as you would expect with a team with 3 or 4 new starters and a whole new philosophy. But a lot of guys played well individually. The new ILBs, Baker (from Miami) and Dodson (from Buffalo) didn't get any or hardly any snaps in preseason and I was worried that was going to be a huge weakness for the defense, but they both played well, flying all over the field and making most of their tackles. I'd say they've been an overall plus so far. Speaking of tackling, overall that was so much better than Pete's defenses the past few years that they had to have emphasized that in camp. They had a number of situations where an offensive player was out in space and last year the defense would miss that tackle over half the time. Sunday, they made around 90% of those tackles. Secondary played really well. Safeties Love and Jenkins covered the field well. Witherspoon was his studly self, Woolen seems to be playing closer to his rookie season than last year and while Tre Brown gave up a couple of pass plays, he had a couple of good plays. The pass rush was meh. They did get some pressure at times, especially Mafe and Williams, but that is probably partially Denver's OL coming through.

They played a lot of zone against Nix, counting on confusing him with the different coverages. I don't expect they'll play as much against Brissett. If Maye does end up playing, they'd probably go back to the same game plan as week 1.

I think this defense is going to be a top 10 defense once all is said and done and they get enough reps running it.

The way the secondary played, the Pats are better off trying to run the ball more and using play-action off of that to get chunks of yardage. The Hawks did have some coverage issues over the middle, so using Henry in the seam a lot should help open some things up.

 

[chilidawg]

On defense one thing Mike Macdonald is known for is creepers and sim pressures. What he likes to do is line up 5-6 guys on the LOS and make the offense guess who is coming. It is effective against any OL but especially against newer and/or younger OLs. Given the issue Robinson had and Sow has had vs these in the past (including Robinson in week 1) I expect a bunch of QB pressures. Unblocked QB pressures at that...

@DanoooME what is the state of the Seahawks run defense? I don't really have a read or a take on that at all. What was week 1 like on defense for you all?

Lazar has a good look, with film, at exactly what you're talking about here. He doesn't offer any suggestions on how to attack it though.

They did get some good film on how they shouldn't deal with it from the Bengals game, so hopefully they'll be some learning.

https://www.patriots.com/news/patriots-gameplan-preparing-for-seattle-s-pressure-package-the-seahawks-playmakers-and-key-matchups-in-sunday-s-showdown

 

[SMU_Sox]

Run defense was much better than last year. They held the Broncos RBs to 20 carries for 64 yards. Nix managed to go 5 for 35 to make their overall numbers look better. It's definitely not perfect, but Denver has invested a lot of money in their OL and their RBs are at least average if not better, so overall it was a good performance. They had some growing pains on defense overall, as you would expect with a team with 3 or 4 new starters and a whole new philosophy. But a lot of guys played well individually. The new ILBs, Baker (from Miami) and Dodson (from Buffalo) didn't get any or hardly any snaps in preseason and I was worried that was going to be a huge weakness for the defense, but they both played well, flying all over the field and making most of their tackles. I'd say they've been an overall plus so far. Speaking of tackling, overall that was so much better than Pete's defenses the past few years that they had to have emphasized that in camp. They had a number of situations where an offensive player was out in space and last year the defense would miss that tackle over half the time. Sunday, they made around 90% of those tackles. Secondary played really well. Safeties Love and Jenkins covered the field well. Witherspoon was his studly self, Woolen seems to be playing closer to his rookie season than last year and while Tre Brown gave up a couple of pass plays, he had a couple of good plays. The pass rush was meh. They did get some pressure at times, especially Mafe and Williams, but that is probably partially Denver's OL coming through.

They played a lot of zone against Nix, counting on confusing him with the different coverages. I don't expect they'll play as much against Brissett. If Maye does end up playing, they'd probably go back to the same game plan as week 1.

I think this defense is going to be a top 10 defense once all is said and done and they get enough reps running it.

The way the secondary played, the Pats are better off trying to run the ball more and using play-action off of that to get chunks of yardage. The Hawks did have some coverage issues over the middle, so using Henry in the seam a lot should help open some things up.

First off great post and much appreciated. Yeah, if you couldn't tell I am freaking stoked about Macdonald. I agree that by the end of the year it will be a top 10 or fringe top 10 unit. Not sure what happens this weekend but obviously we are not exactly a juggernaut on offense. It seems like the back end is a lot better than the front end for pass defense but they are equally adept at run defense?

I am bullish on the Seahawks this year. They were my 2nd WC team.

I have noticed that there is a big difference for west coast teams playing at noon on the east coast so I gave the Pats a decent upset chance. On a neutral field I would not be nearly as optimistic.

Interesting to me that Lockett was the guy who really moved it through the air vs DK and JSN. I wonder who takes him. Probably Jon Jones is my guess. If he's up vs the nickel though he could create some mismatches quickly...

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

Seahawks are coming cross country to play a feisty Pats defense. Who is ready for a 2-0 start before the bottom falls out? I know I am.

Seahawks right now have some major issues on the right side of their OL. George Fant is out. Abe Lucas (my dude) is still on PUP with a nasty knee issue (sincerely hope that gets better). Stone Forsythe is the current RT. He is ok in pass pro but struggles vs speed. I think Uche would give him issues. RG Anthony Bradford (also my dude) is such a mauler as a run blocker but his pass pro is still a huge concern. LG Laken Tomlinson is coming off back to back sub-par seasons with the Jets and is 32. He is also not a good pass protector. So right now you have Charles Cross and Connor Williams (LT and C) who look good but the rest of the line is a huge ?.

I think the Seahawks will be able to run on us and it will be up to Bentley and Tavai to tackle Walker in space which is not an easy task. Walker is an excellent RB. Defensively our slot options are going to be crossed out all day because of Witherspoon. We might be able to attack outside though... but the issue is JB doesn't like to throw outside as much. It seems to me like this will be a lower scoring game. Seattle doesn't really have the horses to do as much damage to our OL. Leonard Williams will be a handful of course.

I think this one will be something like 19-17 Patriots or 19-17 Seahawks.

Walker may be out- didn't practice yesterday... it's too early for injury reports today. Any word from our friends in the NW on the injury?

 

[DanoooME]

First off great post and much appreciated. Yeah, if you couldn't tell I am freaking stoked about Macdonald. I agree that by the end of the year it will be a top 10 or fringe top 10 unit. Not sure what happens this weekend but obviously we are not exactly a juggernaut on offense. It seems like the back end is a lot better than the front end for pass defense but they are equally adept at run defense?

I am bullish on the Seahawks this year. They were my 2nd WC team.

I have noticed that there is a big difference for west coast teams playing at noon on the east coast so I gave the Pats a decent upset chance. On a neutral field I would not be nearly as optimistic.

Interesting to me that Lockett was the guy who really moved it through the air vs DK and JSN. I wonder who takes him. Probably Jon Jones is my guess. If he's up vs the nickel though he could create some mismatches quickly...

The west to east factor was pretty much eliminated the past few years. The Hawks never used to win going east for an early game, but I think they've been over .500 the past few years in that scenario. Under MacDonald, it may end up different.

DK was followed all game by Surtain, so he wasn't targeted as much as usual (4 targets, 3 catches, 29 yards). They just didn't throw the ball much as all (Geno was 17-25, 171 yards). JSN I can't explain. He was only targeted twice and caught both. They seemed to spread the targets around so no one other than Lockett got more than 4.

 

[DanoooME]

Walker may be out- didn't practice yesterday... it's too early for injury reports today. Any word from our friends in the NW on the injury?

He's questionable with an "abdominal injury". MacDonald seems to have brought the Ravens' close to the vest injury attitude to the Pacific Northwest as well.

 

[Van Everyman]

Everyone keeps saying the Pats should run more play action. This was also a refrain last year. With AVP, is there any reason to believe they will?

 

[RedOctober3829]

Everyone keeps saying the Pats should run more play action. This was also a refrain last year. With AVP, is there any reason to believe they will?

The WC offense is built upon run, run, then play action pass over your head. I think they could have success running play action early in the game considering Seattle will be geared up to stop the run. It's the same old refrain in that the protection up front will dictate the success of the play action pass game. Can they hold up for a couple of extra seconds against the Seattle front? I hope they feature more passing this week. I want to see them get the ball to their playmakers in space like Douglas and Polk. Run some screens with Antonio Gibson. Hit the PA seam pass to the TE's. Then if you have success with that, you can pound them with the run and have them guessing.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

The WC offense is built upon run, run, then play action pass over your head. I think they could have success running play action early in the game considering Seattle will be geared up to stop the run. It's the same old refrain in that the protection up front will dictate the success of the play action pass game. Can they hold up for a couple of extra seconds against the Seattle front? I hope they feature more passing this week. I want to see them get the ball to their playmakers in space like Douglas and Polk. Run some screens with Antonio Gibson. Hit the PA seam pass to the TE's. Then if you have success with that, you can pound them with the run and have them guessing.

The Pats did a good job on running it on 500 first downs last week. The tape is out now and they can flip the script and kill SEA on first down play actions.

 

[cshea]

I think a problem with play action is the line needs to hold up. The QB needs to be able to execute the fake, reset, look downfield, throw. It takes longer to develop than straight dropbacks, perhaps AVP is a bit leery of calling too many of them until the line is a bit more stable.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

No practice again for Walker on Thursday.

 

[chilidawg]

I think a problem with play action is the line needs to hold up. The QB needs to be able to execute the fake, reset, look downfield, throw. It takes longer to develop than straight dropbacks, perhaps AVP is a bit leery of calling too many of them until the line is a bit more stable.

Wouldn't the flipside of this be that the D isn't teeing off if they're respecting the run fake, so there's a little less pressure on the OL?

 

[brendan f]

I think a problem with play action is the line needs to hold up. The QB needs to be able to execute the fake, reset, look downfield, throw. It takes longer to develop than straight dropbacks, perhaps AVP is a bit leery of calling too many of them until the line is a bit more stable.

I think this is probably right, but he should be looking to employ it. There's a lot of data to suggest it's very effective, more so than traditional drop back passing, and even when your run game is only going ok. It's worth the risk even with a crappy line, because the rewards can be big.

History suggests it's just a matter of time before we see more of it with AVP, but I hope it's this week.

 

[cshea]

Wouldn't the flipside of this be that the D isn't teeing off if they're respecting the run fake, so there's a little less pressure on the OL?

With play action, you’re kind of bringing more bodies toward the QB/RB mesh point by selling the run. The purpose is to suck the LB’s in and throw it behind them to the space the LB’s vacated.

 

[j44thor]

Walker was the SEA offense last week, he is the HR hitter and without him this should be a low scoring grind it out game likely decided by turnovers and special teams. Charbonnet is probably a bit better in the passing game but is more of a plodder, a poor mans Rham.

 

[Cellar-Door]

https://x.com/gbellseattle/status/1834688981419934025

Fant and Walker both doubtful

 

[chilidawg]

Sow out, Dugger, Hasty, Wise and Robinson Questionable. Robinson was a full participant in practice so may go.

https://www.patriots.com/news/injury-report-analysis-patriots-rule-out-g-sidy-sow-list-four-players-as-questionable-for-sunday-s-game-vs-seahawks

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

The Pharoah will not bring down a plague upon the Patriots- as he is out for SEA