Week 18 Pats/Bills Discussion

[Red Averages]

So what does this week look like for the Pats? The Bills were already on a short week, supposedly today they were going to hold a walkthrough. How prepared will they be?

The line is currently +7.5, so clearly Vegas has the Bills as overwhelming favorites. I just think A- the Patriots need to win to guarantee their own ride, B - The Bills aren't even sure what they are playing for given the uncertainty of the Buff/Cin game, C - they likely won't have as much prep, D - they clearly are going to have some mental components to deal with.

So I could see a situation where the Pats are better prepared and able to win, or I could see an emotional Bills team coming out and blowing the doors off the Pats.

Anyone have conviction one way or the other?

 

[AB in DC]

I feel pretty strongly that Buffalo will be extra motivated to win one for Damar.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I feel pretty strongly that Buffalo will be extra motivated to win one for Damar.

Yeah. Pats are walking into a buzz saw on Sunday. I’m just hoping for turnover luck that keeps them in the game.

 

[cshea]

Yeah. Pats are walking into a buzz saw on Sunday. I’m just hoping for turnover luck that keeps them in the game.

Their best hope is the league gives the Bills an L, tie, or no-contest in the suspended game, the Chiefs win on Saturday, and then the Bills treat this week as their bye and rest everyone.

Otherwise yeah, probably a buzzsaw.

 

[DJnVa]

I feel pretty strongly that Buffalo will be extra motivated to win one for Damar.

Being motivated to do so but being in the mental and physical place to do so are different things. I don't think a blanket statement that covers 50+ players will be accurate.

 

[tims4wins]

View: https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1610748750351470592

 

[Bergs]

Unfortunately, I'm on team buzzsaw, barring a pre-game call of the suspended game to a tie (not very likely) or Bills loss (not at all fucking likely) and the Chiefs winning (very likely).

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

Team buzzsaw but hoping that leads to a lack of focus and a turnover or three along with a hangover to begin the game.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Being motivated to do so but being in the mental and physical place to do so are different things. I don't think a blanket statement that covers 50+ players will be accurate.

Yeah, who knows which way it will cut.

But the bottom line is that the Bills at the moment are significantly better than the Patriots. After the first game this year, I was left with a fairly firm conviction that if they played the game 10 times, it would look much the same each time barring some considerable luck for the Patriots.

I really wouldn't be at all surprised to see 24-10 again.

 

[Shelterdog]

Yeah, who knows which way it will cut.

But the bottom line is that the Bills at the moment are significantly better than the Patriots. After the first game this year, I was left with a fairly firm conviction that if they played the game 10 times, it would look much the same each time barring some considerable luck for the Patriots.

I really wouldn't be at all surprised to see 24-10 again.

The Bills are much better but every game really is different based on game plans, injuries (one example here-if Taron Johnson is out the Bills are missing in Hamlin and two DBs who play essentially a hundred percent of their snaps and are subbing in some players who have not played much--busts in the defensive backfield wouldn't be surprising), early luck etc. The pats play the bills 10 times they win 2 to 4 times.

All that said 24-10 sounds about right for a BIlls team that whether motivated by Hamlin or not will be motivated to try and get a one seed.

 

[Mooch]

Being motivated to do so but being in the mental and physical place to do so are different things. I don't think a blanket statement that covers 50+ players will be accurate.

I agree with this. I think the biggest challenge for the Bills is getting them to focus on the gameplan this week. No easy task, understandably.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I agree with this. I think the biggest challenge for the Bills is getting them to focus on the gameplan this week. No easy task, understandably.

Pats need to strike early when the Bills may be overhyped. Once they settle down, it likely won’t be good for us.

 

[Mooch]

Pats need to strike early when the Bills may be overhyped. Once they settle down, it likely won’t be good for us.

Yeah, that's kind of my thought too. The talent disparity will be obvious pretty quickly.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

I'm hoping they keep it close and play a competitive game and maybe catch a break. I'm afraid it will be ugly just like the last two Bills matchups. Our D has no answers for their offense. And our offense has no questions for their defense.

 

[Zincman]

Motivation is often a tricky and very unreliable tool for diagnosis. On any given Sunday 50+ players are motivated and many of them for different reasons. Some are very championship focused. Some are playing for a contract. Some are motivated to simply hang on to a job. More than likely, this game will come down to simple execution and, frankly, they have better talent. Is it possible that the specter of their injured comrade could cast a pall over the team and damage their focus. Of course, but it's much more likely that they compartmentalize this tragedy briefly so they can do their job. During my 40+ years of coaching, I've seen both happen.

 

[Cellar-Door]

yeah, no way to know how BUF responds. Maybe they come out listless and distracted, maybe they come out hair on fire, could go either way, and also... could not stay that way. Teams can come out rough then settle, teams can come out hyped out of their minds and burnout.

All I really know is that Buffalo is a better team than us, and in particular a bad matchup for what we do well/poorly, so I would expect them to win if they play their starters

 

[Mystic Merlin]

yeah, no way to know how BUF responds. Maybe they come out listless and distracted, maybe they come out hair on fire, could go either way, and also... could not stay that way. Teams can come out rough then settle, teams can come out hyped out of their minds and burnout.

All I really know is that Buffalo is a better team than us, and in particular a bad matchup for what we do well/poorly, so I would expect them to win if they play their starters

Right. And they could come out and just win because they’re better, or lose because it’s the NFL. But undoubtedly the result will be generally characterized as reflective of something like an emotional/psychological letdown if they lose and something like the result of the galvanizing effect of Hamlin’s injury if they win.

I think the Bills deserve credit for just taking the field this week, should they choose to, but sports culture demands a more engaging narrative than that.

 

[JOBU]

Team buzzaw here. Hoping that the bills come out distracted and unfocused (it’s obviously understandable) and the pats squeak it out. I kinda feel like a piece of shit wishing for that though.

 

[Justthetippett]

I think they’ll come out feeling pretty off but, for their sake at least, get comfortable and “normal” pretty quickly. It’ll be emotional but also cathartic for them to get back to some kind of business as usual. (I was a ski racer and saw friends take some life threatening crashes; the only way to get over the anxiety was to turn off my brain, and that was best done by getting back in the course where there was no time to think. I would imagine race car drivers and others engaged in risky sports feel similarly.) If they play to win, they’ll likely beat the Pats by at least two scores.

 

[BaseballJones]

From a competitive game standpoint, the only thing that matters for the patriots is winning on Sunday. Obviously I am leaving a side the health of Hamlin for the moment. But the patriots are kind of in a no-win situation here. If they lose, well then they lose. But if they win, it will be perceived as happening only because the bills clearly are going through basically the most major distraction any team has ever gone through. I know at the end of the day it won’t matter because they win is a win but that is how it would be portrayed.

 

[8slim]

I really wish we were playing anyone else this week. Focusing on a game vs. Buffalo feels incredibly weird.

 

[GB5]

Impossible to say. My guess is that the Bills already have a pretty solid idea of what the league is going to do with their game with the Bengals. Assuming it’s a tie or forfeit or not to be replayed then if KC wins or Saturday then the game means nothing to Buffalo. They are just as likely to rest everyone as they are to come out with their hair on fire.

The bigger question is can the Pats beat Buffalo’s B team if it happens?

 

[Rudy's Curve]

Impossible to say. My guess is that the Bills already have a pretty solid idea of what the league is going to do with their game with the Bengals. Assuming it’s a tie or forfeit or not to be replayed then if KC wins or Saturday then the game means nothing to Buffalo. They are just as likely to rest everyone as they are to come out with their hair on fire.

The bigger question is can the Pats beat Buffalo’s B team if it happens?

The Bills still need to win to hold off the Bengals for the 2, as the Bengals are ahead in the fourth tiebreaker (strength of victory) - they would have the same AFC record and common games record with a Bengals win and Bills loss. Given Week 18 is entirely divisional, they both went 3-0 against the other's division, beat KC/TEN outside their divisions and had no NFC common opponents, I don't think the Bills can pass them in strength of victory. I'm not sure how much the Bills care about the 2, but they will have something to play for.

Edit: the Bills could improve their SOV if the Bears and Rams win since they're teams the Bills beat and would beat teams the Bills didn't (whereas the Bengals don't have that chance), but I'm not finding any combos where the Bills win the tiebreaker - a Bengals win over the Ravens likely makes their SOV uncatchable.

 

[JimD]

In addition to the Bills being motivated to 'win it for Demar', as well as to secure the best possible seeding, it cannot be understated the impact of this game taking place in Buffalo instead of Foxboro. The atmosphere is going to be incredibly intense and the Bills players are living in the midst of it. They may come out overhyped and the Patriots might momentarily benefit, but the talent differential will show quickly and it's not going to be pretty for NE.

 

[rodderick]

Until the Patriots show they belong on the same field as this version of the Bills under remotely normal weather circumstances, I'll pencil them in for a walloping regardless of Buffalo's level of motivation or mental state. This has been a non competitive matchup of late.

 

[cornwalls@6]

Until the Patriots show they belong on the same field as this version of the Bills under remotely normal weather circumstances, I'll pencil them in for a walloping regardless of Buffalo's level of motivation or mental state. This has been a non competitive matchup of late.

Yup. I thought they did a decent job a few weeks ago, containing Allen in the pocket, avoiding big plays, and forcing longer drives. And they still lost by 2 touchdowns. At home. And the weather in Buffalo Sunday looks like an average, uneventful, 35 degree winter day. Given how the season has gone, I’m happy to have a play-in game. And I’ll be watching and rooting hard. But barring the Bills sitting most of their starters, which I think is unlikely, this is about the worst matchup the Pats could be facing.

 

[Mooch]

Forgive me for putting an awkward and probably distasteful spotlight on the elephant in the room but from an Xs and Os standpoint, the Bills have a major hole in their defense. With Hamlin out and Taron Johnson also getting hurt on Monday, the Bills secondary is pretty thin right now. Micah Hyde is on IR and Poyer is playing with a meniscus tear in his knee. They’re also missing Von Miller who gives the Pats fits and his absence reduces the Bills pass rush.

I think the Pats should work the middle of the field in the passing game as much as possible.

 

[tims4wins]

I'm going to take the opposite stance here and say the Bills are at a major disadvantage from a mental / emotional / preparation perspective. They might be super fired up, but that in and of itself doesn't win football games.

Now, this matchup has not been very competitive over the last few years, wind game notwithstanding. So I expect that the talent differential will eventually win out.

But I wouldn't be shocked at all to see the Patriots lead this game for a good chunk of it.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

From a competitive game standpoint, the only thing that matters for the patriots is winning on Sunday. Obviously I am leaving a side the health of Hamlin for the moment. But the patriots are kind of in a no-win situation here. If they lose, well then they lose. But if they win, it will be perceived as happening only because the bills clearly are going through basically the most major distraction any team has ever gone through. I know at the end of the day it won’t matter because they win is a win but that is how it would be portrayed.

Who cares? I mean, the circumstances of the game are what they are. I'm sure it'll be strange playing Buffalo, for the fans but more so for the players. But who cares how it will be portrayed?

Edit: and given the fact that the Pats have been completely non-competitive the last two times they took the field against the Bills, if we see a listless Bills team out there who look like they have no interest in being on a football field given what happened on Monday night, it should be rightfully portrayed that way.

 

[rodderick]

Who cares? I mean, the circumstances of the game are what they are. I'm sure it'll be strange playing Buffalo, for the fans but more so for the players. But who cares how it will be portrayed?

Edit: and given the fact that the Pats have been completely non-competitive the last two times they took the field against the Bills, if we see a listless Bills team out there who look like they have no interest in being on a football field given what happened on Monday night, it should be rightfully portrayed that way.

There's nothing that represents us Patriots fans more than preemptively complaining about not getting enough credit for a win that hasn't occurred yet.

 

[tims4wins]

Marcus Jones back at practice today

 

[Shelterdog]

Marcus Jones back at practice today

But unfortunatley so is Jonnu Smith....

Hope they're able to play, hard to tell where they might be in the concussion protocol.

 

[dirtynine]

I think the Bills are going to be mentally exhausted. I’d expect more mistakes from them than normal. Even if they’re fired up, I think they will be ragged.

 

[Ed Hillel]

You guys act like the Pats won’t be fired up for the futures of Matt Patricia and Mac Jones.

 

[Garshaparra]

Put me down for Team Buzzsaw. I expect a lot of tentative play from the Pats, with a very injured secondary, and little interest in a 1-and-done playoff round appearance. The news on Hamlin's health has been very positive, so I think that'll be a spark. Here's hoping the Bills fans begin a lot of "3! 3! 3!" chants in Damar's honor.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

Put me down for Team Buzzsaw. I expect a lot of tentative play from the Pats, with a very injured secondary, and little interest in a 1-and-done playoff round appearance. The news on Hamlin's health has been very positive, so I think that'll be a spark. Here's hoping the Bills fans begin a lot of "3! 3! 3!" chants in Damar's honor.

Maybe the Patriots can hold them to 3 points in honor of Damar!

 

[Ed Hillel]

Maybe the Patriots can hold them to 3 points in honor of Damar!

Might need 2 safeties, as well, if they want to win.

 

[Red Averages]

So given the Bills/Bengals game won't resume and the #1 seed will likely be off the table (and with diminished benefits), I think it's a decent probability that the Bills play but don't play starters the full game. A "avoid rust, but don't get hurt" game, if you will. They'd have the odds of finishing 2nd or 3rd, really the difference in hosting Cinci in round 2 or playing there. Still a bit deal, but less so than getting the #1 seed.

The line is down from +7.5 to +7, but I think it settles a lot lower if this scenario unfolds like this.

 

[rodderick]

So given the Bills/Bengals game won't resume and the #1 seed will likely be off the table (and with diminished benefits), I think it's a decent probability that the Bills play but don't play starters the full game. A "avoid rust, but don't get hurt" game, if you will. They'd have the odds of finishing 2nd or 3rd, really the difference in hosting Cinci in round 2 or playing there. Still a bit deal, but less so than getting the #1 seed.

The line is down from +7.5 to +7, but I think it settles a lot lower if this scenario unfolds like this.

Is there any way the Bills don't go full tilt in front of their home crowd right after receiving positive news on Hamlin with a shot at booting the Patriots out of the playoffs? I think they'll be up for that.

 

[Anthologos]

There's nothing that represents us Patriots fans more than preemptively complaining about not getting enough credit for a win that hasn't occurred yet.

I’ll go one further. Our eventual Super Bowl win will be discounted because we went against the grief-stricken…did BB really need to go for a touchdown in the closing seconds? Has he no heart? Another asterisk forthcoming. Being a Patriots fan is the worst.

 

[Jinhocho]

I predict the Bills - irregardless of Demar - will dismantle the Pats. We just have no answers for them last year or this year.

 

[johnmd20]

I predict the Bills - irregardless of Demar - will dismantle the Pats. We just have no answers for them last year or this year.

Demar cannot be removed from this. If his medical reports continue to be strong, the Bills are going to come out hard. Win it for Demar and all that.

I am definitely on team buzzsaw. The Pats are matched up against the worst possible opponent at literally the worst possible time. This could be ugly. NFL players are very good at compartmentalizing. They are going to be focused and fired up and will just play like banshees. It won't cause them to make mistakes, it will cause them to dismantle the Pats. To be fair, like they always do.

But all the eyes of the sporting world will be on this game. And the Bills can and will deliver. The Pats are in such a bad spot.

 

[Anthologos]

Demar cannot be removed from this. If his medical reports continue to be strong, the Bills are going to come out hard. Win it for Demar and all that.

I am definitely on team buzzsaw. The Pats are matched up against the worst possible opponent at literally the worst possible time. This could be ugly. NFL players are very good at compartmentalizing. They are going to be focused and fired up and will just play like banshees. It won't cause them to make mistakes, it will cause them to dismantle the Pats. To be fair, like they always do.

But all the eyes of the sporting world will be on this game. And the Bills can and will deliver. The Pats are in such a bad spot.

Wow. I don’t disagree with this, but how times have changed. “Like they always do.”
I’m crying now.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

I have no idea how much or if Demar plays into the game. It could swing in either direction. So ill ignore it and just say that, unless the defense gets multiple turnovers and put the Patriots in good field position all day, they lose.

And even then, they still might lose.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Weather report as of now is clear in the mid 30s with no wind so springtime in Buffalo

On a separate note, Marcus Jones would be a good weapon for this contest imo so todays practice report is encouraging.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Weather report as of now is clear in the mid 30s with no wind so springtime in Buffalo

On a separate note, Marcus Jones would be a good weapon for this contest imo so todays practice report is encouraging.

Will definitely need a good kick returner in this one

 

[Preacher]

I have no idea how much or if Demar plays into the game. It could swing in either direction. So ill ignore it and just say that, unless the defense gets multiple turnovers and put the Patriots in good field position all day, they lose.

And even then, they still might lose.

Multiple turnovers with at least two of them resulting in TDs by the defense would certainly be helpful. Maybe a score by the special teams as well. Otherwise, I am going with buzzsaw.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Belichick, of course, puts things in perspective
https://www.nfl.com/news/patriots-bill-belichick-recalls-reggie-brown-injury-in-discussing-hamlin-life-s-

 

[Jinhocho]

Wow. I don’t disagree with this, but how times have changed. “Like they always do.”
I’m crying now.

The bills used to destroy us when I was younger and then for 20 years we destroyed them and now the pendulum swings back. I think we're a lot closer to contention than we were back then.

 

[j44thor]

Seeing the interviews and clips of BUF players on news and soc media today I'm on team Buzzsaw. They are going to be insanely fired up, not to mention very fresh after playing only a quarter last week. They may be down in the secondary but BUF is so zone heavy I'm not sure it matters when they are generating consistent pressure with the front 4 and dropping everyone else back in coverage.