Let's start off by acknowledging that it's 6 games into the season and that no conclusions can be drawn from the team's performance in such a short span. It might even be early to start asking questions, but I thought I'd throw this out there just as something to keep an eye on, or in case anyone else is seeing hints of the same thing.
The 2013 offense was relentless. As the winter leading into last season was unfolding, I noted that the players they were signing may not have been world beaters with the stick, but they all seemed to see a higher than average amount of pitches per plate appearance. Gomes saw 4.13 and 4.05 in the two seasons leading into 2013. Drew saw 4.02 in 2011 and split time between ARI (4.25) and OAK (4.31) in 2012. Carp saw 4.07 in 2012. Victorino was the worst of the new acquisitions at 3.77 in 2012. The team already had some hitters who excelled at drawing out at bats and wearing pitchers down in Pedroia (3.97), Ortiz (3.91), Salty (4.06), Nava (4.07), Ellsbury (3.89), and Napoli (4.43). Even the team's worst free swinger, Middlebrooks, saw 3.88 per plate appearance in 2012 and managed a 4.11 in 2013. The offense, from top to bottom, made pitchers work hard to get through every at bat and was successful in getting them out of games early on a regular basis.
Enter A.J. Pierzynski. He saw 3.47 P/PA in 2012, and only 3.27 in 2013. He doesn't fit with the kinds of hitters the team targeted in the 2012-2013 winter. On top of that, his OBP in 2013 was .297. I get that the Red Sox signed him because of the circumstances, but there's no polite way to say it... he's not a tough out at the plate and gives the pitcher a chance to catch his breath once every time through the order. So I find myself wondering, how much does that impact a pitcher on any given night? Maybe the effect isn't so big, but what if it is? Is there a possibility that it can erode the lineup's effectiveness overall? Was the constant pressure from every hitter in the lineup in 2013 a case of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts? A lot of people had trouble seeing just how good the offense was going to be in 2013 and a lot of us are expecting the offense this year to be one of the best in the majors. So far, they are 2nd to last in runs scored in the AL. Again, super SSS warning. I'm not jumping off of a bridge here. I'm not even glancing up at it mournfully as I stroll past. I'm just thinking out loud (or in a text box, actually).
Is it too early to be jumping to conclusions? Absolutely. Only one pitcher this season has made it into the 7th inning against the Red Sox so far. Most haven't made it into the 6th. But I'm left wondering how much having one spot in the order that is so much easier to work through can impact the team's ability to wear down a pitcher and trigger mistake pitches or a loss of command or any number of things that contribute to a more effective offense that might not be obvious in the box score. We've acknowledged that in the age of pitch counts, 100 pitches is not necessarily equal to another 100 pitches. The Red Sox look to remove pitchers after their third crisis, for instance, rather than stick with a hard pitch count limit. They are concerned with how hard a pitcher has worked in his outing more so than the raw number of pitches thrown. So it's not so crazy to wonder how a hitter who provides an easier at bat might allow a pitcher to stay fresh and effective a little longer on any given night.
Or maybe I'm just crazy and am letting the first brief losing streak of the season get to me.
The 2013 offense was relentless. As the winter leading into last season was unfolding, I noted that the players they were signing may not have been world beaters with the stick, but they all seemed to see a higher than average amount of pitches per plate appearance. Gomes saw 4.13 and 4.05 in the two seasons leading into 2013. Drew saw 4.02 in 2011 and split time between ARI (4.25) and OAK (4.31) in 2012. Carp saw 4.07 in 2012. Victorino was the worst of the new acquisitions at 3.77 in 2012. The team already had some hitters who excelled at drawing out at bats and wearing pitchers down in Pedroia (3.97), Ortiz (3.91), Salty (4.06), Nava (4.07), Ellsbury (3.89), and Napoli (4.43). Even the team's worst free swinger, Middlebrooks, saw 3.88 per plate appearance in 2012 and managed a 4.11 in 2013. The offense, from top to bottom, made pitchers work hard to get through every at bat and was successful in getting them out of games early on a regular basis.
Enter A.J. Pierzynski. He saw 3.47 P/PA in 2012, and only 3.27 in 2013. He doesn't fit with the kinds of hitters the team targeted in the 2012-2013 winter. On top of that, his OBP in 2013 was .297. I get that the Red Sox signed him because of the circumstances, but there's no polite way to say it... he's not a tough out at the plate and gives the pitcher a chance to catch his breath once every time through the order. So I find myself wondering, how much does that impact a pitcher on any given night? Maybe the effect isn't so big, but what if it is? Is there a possibility that it can erode the lineup's effectiveness overall? Was the constant pressure from every hitter in the lineup in 2013 a case of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts? A lot of people had trouble seeing just how good the offense was going to be in 2013 and a lot of us are expecting the offense this year to be one of the best in the majors. So far, they are 2nd to last in runs scored in the AL. Again, super SSS warning. I'm not jumping off of a bridge here. I'm not even glancing up at it mournfully as I stroll past. I'm just thinking out loud (or in a text box, actually).
Is it too early to be jumping to conclusions? Absolutely. Only one pitcher this season has made it into the 7th inning against the Red Sox so far. Most haven't made it into the 6th. But I'm left wondering how much having one spot in the order that is so much easier to work through can impact the team's ability to wear down a pitcher and trigger mistake pitches or a loss of command or any number of things that contribute to a more effective offense that might not be obvious in the box score. We've acknowledged that in the age of pitch counts, 100 pitches is not necessarily equal to another 100 pitches. The Red Sox look to remove pitchers after their third crisis, for instance, rather than stick with a hard pitch count limit. They are concerned with how hard a pitcher has worked in his outing more so than the raw number of pitches thrown. So it's not so crazy to wonder how a hitter who provides an easier at bat might allow a pitcher to stay fresh and effective a little longer on any given night.
Or maybe I'm just crazy and am letting the first brief losing streak of the season get to me.