Wacha likely going on IL, Will not start tomorrow

CoffeeNerdness

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So, the Cora/Bloom strategy of limiting early season innings to prevent injuries seems to have been a failure so far.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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So, the Cora/Bloom strategy of limiting early season innings to prevent injuries seems to have been a failure so far.
Ooh, hot take!

The "strategy" as it were was not unique to the Red Sox, especially this season with the abbreviated spring training. Also, the notion of ramping up pitchers slowly isn't about preventing all injuries ever. I don't think the slow start is responsible for Eovaldi's back problems, or Whitlock's hip issues, or Hill's knee injury. But yeah, these injuries were totally preventable if Cora and Bloom had just let these guys throw 120 pitches a start right out of the gate. :rolleyes:
 

Remagellan

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The team we're playing this weekend have had their rotation intact all season. Sometimes the difference between a great season and a less than great one is simply the sort of injury luck that allows a team to keep its best players on the field for most of the season.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Yikes, do you really think that's a hot take worthy of a hyperbolic response? They limited early season innings and probably lost a handful of games dipping into the bullpen earlier than usual and now the whole staff is on the shelf. So yeah, limiting early season innings in an attempt to prevent injuries seems to have failed "so far".

Can you point to the successful part of that strategy without building dumb strawmen?
 

joe dokes

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Yikes, do you really think that's a hot take worthy of a hyperbolic response? They limited early season innings and probably lost a handful of games dipping into the bullpen earlier than usual and now the whole staff is on the shelf. So yeah, limiting early season innings in an attempt to prevent injuries seems to have failed "so far".

Can you point to the successful part of that strategy without building dumb strawmen?
Playoff berth if season ended today.
T-3rd highest run differential in the AL
 

cornwalls@6

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The team we're playing this weekend have had their rotation intact all season. Sometimes the difference between a great season and a less than great one is simply the sort of injury luck that allows a team to keep its best players on the field for most of the season.
This right here. Fans, and I've been guilty of it in the past, tend to look for systemic failures whenever a team runs into a rash of injures.Often times, probably most times, it's just dumb, bad, luck. And pitching staffs in particular are a constant, fingers crossed thing. The timing of this sucks with the current meat-grinder stretch of games, but hopefully the second half features the rotation and bullpen healthy and set up for a stretch run.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Playoff berth if season ended today.
T-3rd highest run differential in the AL
Let me just get this out of the way first; I am pro-Cora and Bloom and I'm not some doom and gloomer who wanted to fire the whole staff in early May and I am and have been generally bullish on this team's outlook. That said when you publically state that you employed a strategy in order to prevent X and X happens regardless I think it's fair to question that strategy. Could be luck, maybe it was the strategy of limiting early season innings, likely a mixture of both.

I’d bet we’d have Sale back already if not for Cora’s strategy!
Amazing contribution.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Amazing contribution.
Yes, that's being hyperbolic and taking your point to a stupid extreme conclusion.
The general point those of us criticizing your take is that basically there's no connection and the likelihood that if Cora just let the starters go 7 innings, 100 pitches right at the start of the season that there would possibly be more injuries. We can never know for certain either, but the latter is the more likely of happening.
I'm just hoping that all the other competitive teams starters will start to wear down come mid August and all this non-intentional rest for Eovaldi, Sale and Whitlock will keep them fresh during that time.
 

joe dokes

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Yes, that's being hyperbolic and taking your point to a stupid extreme conclusion.
The general point those of us criticizing your take is that basically there's no connection and the likelihood that if Cora just let the starters go 7 innings, 100 pitches right at the start of the season that there would possibly be more injuries. We can never know for certain either, but the latter is the more likely of happening.
I'm just hoping that all the other competitive teams starters will start to wear down come mid August and all this non-intentional rest for Eovaldi, Sale and Whitlock will keep them fresh during that time.
While it's possible that the "strategy" failed, it is equally possible that the "strategy" is the very reason, the only reason, the mostestly brilliantest reason ever, that all of the starters pitched as well as they did. (Pitching well and getting hurt being the only two actual facts we have.)
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Yes, that's being hyperbolic and taking your point to a stupid extreme conclusion.
The general point those of us criticizing your take is that basically there's no connection and the likelihood that if Cora just let the starters go 7 innings, 100 pitches right at the start of the season that there would possibly be more injuries. We can never know for certain either, but the latter is the more likely of happening.
I'm just hoping that all the other competitive teams starters will start to wear down come mid August and all this non-intentional rest for Eovaldi, Sale and Whitlock will keep them fresh during that time.
Looking at Cora's quotes on the matter and how the season shaped up it doesn't seem as though their strategy was simply a matter of limiting bullets early in the season.

“I know we get criticized sometimes with our pitching program early on in the season,” Cora said, as seen on NESN’s postgame coverage. “Taking care of pitchers and taking them out early, but like we tell them, the reason we do that is to save bullets and to be ready when it really matters.

“That’s why we can be creative in October and in September using starters as relievers and just being disciplined early on is paying off right now.”
Cora was known to pull his starter after the second time through the order seemingly regardless of the result, and would only allow pitchers to go deeper when the bullpen was completely taxed — as was the case in Nick Pivetta and Nathan Eovaldi’s complete-game efforts.
On Monday, Cora put down the stats and rode Wacha to a 1-0 complete-game effort. All of a sudden, the Red Sox have the most pitchers in the league with complete games.
https://nesn.com/2022/06/why-alex-coras-letting-red-sox-pitchers-go-deeper-into-games/

So it wasn't a matter of simply limiting early innings. He limited early season bullets and then went the complete opposite direction and found a "pocket" where he let starters (two with rather extensive injury histories) pitch complete games. I think it's perfectly reasonable to question the results of going from ultra conservative to ride his starters like it's 1992.

Anyway, this was a strategy built for Sept./Oct. so we'll see how things shape up by then.
 

The Gray Eagle

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How many games will the WooSox rotation win against the Yankees and Rays?
Looks like the Worcester kids might be starting maybe 6 or 7 of the next 10 against those teams.

MLB lists Seabold, TBD (probably Crawford) and Pivetta for the rest of this series, then all TBD after that. Looks like Pivetta could go against NY twice, and Sale maybe once or twice before the break.

Masslive says:
As of now, the Red Sox have two “TBDs” penciled into their rotation. But if Seabold and Crawford follow Thursday starter Josh Winckowski, it will be three straight rookies against the best team in baseball. Add in Brayan Bello, who threw Wednesday night, and the Sox will have started four rookies in a row. That’s their lot in life with Wacha sidelined and a handful of other rotation options (Nate Eovaldi, Chris Sale, Garrett Whitlock and James Paxton) on the injured list. Bello will pitch again Monday at Tropicana Field with Sale’s return expected to be Tuesday.
So as of now it looks like Seabold, Crawford, and Pivetta for the rest of this series, then Bello, Sale, Winckowski, TBD in TB, then who knows for the series in NY. Maybe Eovaldi could be back for that one?

Eovaldi is slated to make a rehab start at Triple-A Worcester this weekend. It’s not known whether or not he will need more rehab starts after that.

Otherwise, it's the kids, or bullpen starts where the kids will probably need to pitch anyway.

Bello and Winckowski are 0-2 against NY and Tampa so far this week, unfortunately. Hopefully we can find a way to win some of these games with rookie starters.

These rotation injuries are basically happening at the worst possible time and obviously could be really damaging to our playoff chances.
 

54thMA

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These rotation injuries are basically happening at the worst possible time and obviously could be really damaging to our playoff chances.
Captain Smith said the same thing about the Titanics chances of getting to America once it hit that iceberg.

The rotation is in tatters and aside from Devers, the offense has gone stone cold as they run the Tampa/NY/Tampa/NY gauntlet.

I'll consider it a massive win if they are within a handful of games for the third WC spot once this is over.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Captain Smith said the same thing about the Titanics chances of getting to America once it hit that iceberg.

The rotation is in tatters and aside from Devers, the offense has gone stone cold as they run the Tampa/NY/Tampa/NY gauntlet.

I'll consider it a massive win if they are within a handful of games for the third WC spot once this is over.
They're 3.5 games up on Cleveland (losers of 4 straight) and Seattle (winners of 5 straight) right now. Even if they lose all ten remaining games in the "gauntlet", they're unlikely to be more than a handful of games out of a wildcard spot.
 

joe dokes

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They're 3.5 games up on Cleveland (losers of 4 straight) and Seattle (winners of 5 straight) right now. Even if they lose all ten remaining games in the "gauntlet", they're unlikely to be more than a handful of games out of a wildcard spot.
And games against the Yankees are essentially irrelevant -- or no more important than games against the Ruppert Mundys -- for playoff purposes. (TB, of course, not so much).
 

Ganthem

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How many games will the WooSox rotation win against the Yankees and Rays?
Looks like the Worcester kids might be starting maybe 6 or 7 of the next 10 against those teams.

MLB lists Seabold, TBD (probably Crawford) and Pivetta for the rest of this series, then all TBD after that. Looks like Pivetta could go against NY twice, and Sale maybe once or twice before the break.

Masslive says:


So as of now it looks like Seabold, Crawford, and Pivetta for the rest of this series, then Bello, Sale, Winckowski, TBD in TB, then who knows for the series in NY. Maybe Eovaldi could be back for that one?

Eovaldi is slated to make a rehab start at Triple-A Worcester this weekend. It’s not known whether or not he will need more rehab starts after that.

Otherwise, it's the kids, or bullpen starts where the kids will probably need to pitch anyway.

Bello and Winckowski are 0-2 against NY and Tampa so far this week, unfortunately. Hopefully we can find a way to win some of these games with rookie starters.

These rotation injuries are basically happening at the worst possible time and obviously could be really damaging to our playoff chances.
Careful with that. I manage to piss of a lot of people by suggesting these next 14 games could determine their playoffs hopes. The thing that really sucks is that they are not at full strength. Even if they get everybody back healthy it could be too late.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Careful with that. I manage to piss of a lot of people by suggesting these next 14 games could determine their playoffs hopes. The thing that really sucks is that they are not at full strength. Even if they get everybody back healthy it could be too late.
April didn’t define this team.

July won’t, either.

get into the playoffs
get healthy
see what happens
 

joe dokes

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Careful with that. I manage to piss of a lot of people by suggesting these next 14 games could determine their playoffs hopes. The thing that really sucks is that they are not at full strength. Even if they get everybody back healthy it could be too late.
"Piss off" a lot of people? Don't give yourself *that* much credit. I doubt there are many posters here who get pissed off at posts dissecting the Sox, be they sound or baseless dissections.
They may disagree with the post. They may get pissed off at the Sox. Probably not the other way around.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Sure, they could make some noise, but what can we expect out of Sale? Can we expect anything from Paxton? Can Wacha come back and pitch as he was, can Pivetta keep it up, etc etc? I imagine that a few of these things will go right, but a few will not. The ideal rotation and perfect health seems unlikely to come to fruition.

How much prospect capital does one give up to support this team…how likely are they to really contend? Difficult questions to face over the next weeks- I suspect the team won’t give up much of anything for short term rentals.
 

BringBackMo

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Sure, they could make some noise, but what can we expect out of Sale? Can we expect anything from Paxton? Can Wacha come back and pitch as he was, can Pivetta keep it up, etc etc? I imagine that a few of these things will go right, but a few will not. The ideal rotation and perfect health seems unlikely to come to fruition.

How much prospect capital does one give up to support this team…how likely are they to really contend? Difficult questions to face over the next weeks- I suspect the team won’t give up much of anything for short term rentals.
The answer today is the same as it was as the beginning of the season. Zero. The Red Sox are in the middle of a rebuild. They’re doing it while fielding a good but not great team that will contend for a wild card but not a championship. Bloom is not going to sell off pieces of the future to fortify this team in a meaningful way. He’ll most likely do what he did last year, which is deal a decent but not good prospect or two for decent supporting players for the big league club. He might not even do that given that pitching depth available in Worcester that wasn’t there last year. (I know I know. They’ve been knocked around by the Jays and Yankees. The plan was never for three fifths of the Worcester rotation to be starting for the Sox. These pitchers can potentially help in the bullpen for this year.) There were multiple posts from the off-season stating all of this, and multiple posts from the beginning of the season stating all of this. In fact, the only surprise at all in the American League this year is how crazy good the Yankees have been. Every single other thing has unfolded pretty much as predicted. Long way of saying there never was a chance the Sox would invest a lot in this year’s team. Nothing has changed.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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But if you think this is a rebuild, that this team isn’t a legit contender, do you consider moving parts that won’t be part of the “next great red Sox team” for assets that might? I guess it’s the same conversation we’ve been having for over a year. The only players who have more than 1 bWAR this year and are under team control for 2024 are Story, Houck, Pivetta, and Schreiber.
 

BaseballJones

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If Sale is crap and Paxton gives them nothing, then they're probably either not going to make a deep playoff run. Pivetta and Eovaldi are fine. Neither is GREAT, but both are solid pitchers. Wacha, I've maintained, is smoke and mirrors, and Hill is fine but not a guy to carry you at all. Of course, of that group, only Pivetta is currently healthy, which is a massive problem.

So....the hope is...

- Pivetta keeps pitching pretty well.
- Eovaldi and Sale return soon and are back to mostly their normal selves.
- Paxton returns in August and pitches mostly like the guy who had a 3.57 era from 2014-2019.

That happens, and suddenly for the last month and a half, you've got four really good starters, which gives the team a good chance to win every night.

Let's say that two of these things don't happen, and they're getting nothing from two of those four, but they ARE getting something from the other two. Those two plus Hill would make 3/5 of a decent enough rotation, especially if Whitlock returns to form in the bullpen.

That alone might be enough to get them to the playoffs. But if somehow, some way, these pitchers all come back strong, I'd suggest that the Red Sox could take anyone in baseball out in a playoff series, and potentially make a deep run.
 

snowmanny

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Careful with that. I manage to piss of a lot of people by suggesting these next 14 games could determine their playoffs hopes. The thing that really sucks is that they are not at full strength. Even if they get everybody back healthy it could be too late.
Somewhere there is a Guardian fan and a Mariners fan declaring themselves buyers.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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The Magical MFY Pixie-Dust is crazy strong this year. I think Montgomery, Cortes, etc…. Are all quite good, but not THIS good. They WILL regress at least some- enough to make them not invincible.
 

BringBackMo

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But if you think this is a rebuild, that this team isn’t a legit contender, do you consider moving parts that won’t be part of the “next great red Sox team” for assets that might? I guess it’s the same conversation we’ve been having for over a year. The only players who have more than 1 bWAR this year and are under team control for 2024 are Story, Houck, Pivetta, and Schreiber.
It’s an interesting question. I think it’s important to the team to be seen as contending, so I also don’t see them selling pieces. Red Sox fans (not you!) have become such a curious lot. So spoiled by an ownership group that has delivered four titles that they believe it’s beneath the team to ever NOT be in a position to compete for a championship…but constantly convinced that the team is too cheap and too incompetently run to actually compete for a championship. Anyway, my reading of the situation is that the team we see today is largely the one we’ll make our stand with. And I agree with BBJ that a lot of it will come down to health. If things line up right, the Sox will be a tough out. I tend toward optimism when it comes to these things but we shall see.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I think you are right. It also seems like what the Sox are most in need of now, and maybe next year, is major league ready players at multiple positions (RF, 1B, 2B or SS, C) and that would be difficult to acquire for what they could potentially have to move, anyways. Not that they shouldn’t investigate multi-team deals moving out a Bogaerts or JD or something if it improves the team either now or next year (or both), but it seems unlikely.

A week or two ago, it seemed like they had some potential excess value in guys like Hill, Davis, maybe one of the Winck/Seabold crew etc but the flurry of injuries has changed all that in a hurry.
 

chawson

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Looking optimistically, our competition has a lot of warts too. Toronto has gotten nothing or worse from Berrios or Kikuchi, and lost Ryu for the year. Teoscar, Bichette, Chapman and Lourdes have underperformed and Vlad Jr. has an .806 OPS since May 7. Tampa’s five best relievers are on the IL and they’ve gotten very little from their young core of Arozarena, Wander Franco (.707 OPS!) and Brandon and Josh Lowe. The White Sox have weathered bust seasons from more than half its Opening Day lineup (Moncada, Grandal, Eloy Jimenez, Pollock and Sheets). The Mariners have Julio breaking out a little earlier than I think they expected, but they've witnessed the flameout of their other can't miss prospect and have gotten nothing from Haniger and Winker.

None of these teams have players the caliber of Sale, Paxton, Kiké, Eovaldi and Whitlock joining them in the next few weeks. The first four of those guys were worth between 3-4 wins in their last healthy season, and Whitlock is incredibly valuable too. Of course it's unlikely they'll all be just as effective again, but those are substantial additions.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Looking optimistically, our competition has a lot of warts too. Toronto has gotten nothing or worse from Berrios or Kikuchi, and lost Ryu for the year. Teoscar, Bichette, Chapman and Lourdes have underperformed and Vlad Jr. has an .806 OPS since May 7. Tampa’s five best relievers are on the IL and they’ve gotten very little from their young core of Arozarena, Wander Franco (.707 OPS!) and Brandon and Josh Lowe. The White Sox have weathered bust seasons from more than half its Opening Day lineup (Moncada, Grandal, Eloy Jimenez, Pollock and Sheets). The Mariners have Julio breaking out a little earlier than I think they expected, but they've witnessed the flameout of their other can't miss prospect and have gotten nothing from Haniger and Winker.

None of these teams have players the caliber of Sale, Paxton, Kiké, Eovaldi and Whitlock joining them in the next few weeks. The first four of those guys were worth between 3-4 wins in their last healthy season, and Whitlock is incredibly valuable too. Of course it's unlikely they'll all be just as effective again, but those are substantial additions.
I gotta say, this to me is not exactly a great advertisement for this year's playoff stretch. Watch a bunch of flawed teams full of underperforming players battle for the post-season!

Baseball fever - catch it!
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I gotta say, this to me is not exactly a great advertisement for this year's playoff stretch. Watch a bunch of flawed teams full of underperforming players battle for the post-season!

Baseball fever - catch it!
Teams with major flaws still win World Series- and it’s often more fun to watch a JBJ turn in a ALCS MVP performance along the way. How many true juggernaut teams actually win it? Sox in ‘18 and….
And IIRC there was a lot of concern that they didn’t have the SP to go deep. Devers wasn’t even their starter at the hot corner. Joe F’in Kelly turned into Mariano and David Price unexpectedly found his last remaining bit of greatness
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Teams with major flaws still win World Series- and it’s often more fun to watch a JBJ turn in a ALCS MVP performance along the way. How many true juggernaut teams actually win it? Sox in ‘18 and….
In addition to the 2018 Red Sox:

The 2020 Dodgers, who played at a 116 win pace in the shortened season?
The 2017 Astros, who won 101 games?
The 2016 Cubs, who won 103 games?
The 2015 Royals who had the best record in the AL?
The 2013 Red Sox who had the best record in MLB?

Conversely, last year's Braves and the 2014 Giants are the only teams in the last decade to win fewer than 90 games and win the World Series.

So anything can happen in October, but anything doesn't actually happen all that often.
 
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scottyno

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The team we're playing this weekend have had their rotation intact all season. Sometimes the difference between a great season and a less than great one is simply the sort of injury luck that allows a team to keep its best players on the field for most of the season.
That the 2004 Sox had their 5 starters make 157/162 starts that year and then start every game in the postseason too is almost as crazy as the 0-3 comeback.
 

Ganthem

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The fact remains that if they are a few games out of the wild card race, Bloom is going to have to think long and hard about his approach at the trade deadline. Miracles do happen, but counting on them is not a good strategy. If the team continues to lose games to the Rays and Yanks, the Mariners continue to make up ground and our injured players don't come back in a timely manner it might be time to think about selling. I am not hoping about that outcome, but I would rather be brutally honest then bury my head in the sand.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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In addition to the 2018 Red Sox:

The 2020 Dodgers, who played at a 116 win pace in the shortened season?
The 2017 Astros, who won 101 games?
The 2016 Cubs, who won 103 games?
The 2015 Royals who had the best record in the AL?
The 2013 Red Sox who had the best record in MLB?

Conversely, last year's Braves and the 2014 Giants are the only teams in the last decade to win fewer than 90 games and win the World Series.

So anything can happen in October, but anything doesn't actually happen all that often.
Thanks. I’ve got Covid- brain is mush.
But I think the other point I’m trying to make- regarding flawed rosters still applies.
Sox we’re a juggernaut but still very flawed. And I don’t mind watching and rooting for flawed teams and underperforming players. It’s pretty thrilling when those players and/or teams unexpectedly turn it on….. and when expected great players turn into trash.
At the end of ‘18 season I told you that JBJ, David Price and Joe Kelly were going to be WS heroes and that Kimbrell and Sale would try to lose every game they played in- I suspect nobody would be putting money on that.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Seems doubtful they will be a few games back of the WC race given how mediocre a lot of the competition is. That being said, they have to balance the present with the future, as always, and the reality is that next year may be a bridge year. Do they make an extra push; recognizing how last years team caught fire in the postseason and that it could happen again?

I suspect they will look to upgrade a few spots but won’t deal any of their legit prospects unless it’s for players they control for more than this year. Most of the improvements for this team, down the stretch, are likely to come from within.
 

chawson

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Seems doubtful they will be a few games back of the WC race given how mediocre a lot of the competition is. That being said, they have to balance the present with the future, as always, and the reality is that next year may be a bridge year. Do they make an extra push; recognizing how last years team caught fire in the postseason and that it could happen again?

I suspect they will look to upgrade a few spots but won’t deal any of their legit prospects unless it’s for players they control for more than this year. Most of the improvements for this team, down the stretch, are likely to come from within.
Getting into bridge half-decade territory.

Not saying your analysis is wrong. But if 29-year-old Xander Bogaerts final year before FA is a bridge year, and 26-year-old Rafael Devers’ final year before FA is a bridge year, then what are we doing here? Should we bridge-year our way to Marcelo Mayer’s prime?
 

nvalvo

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I don't see why 2023 would be a "bridge year."

We'll have a full rotation of Sale, Pivetta, Paxton, Whitlock, Winckowski with guys like Crawford, Mata, Ward, and Bello as depth. If Sale and Paxton are even 80% of their career norms, that's an excellent rotation.

The offensive core looks to be Devers, Duran, Verdugo, and Story, if Bogaerts is not retained, with Casas waiting in the wings. Those all seem like guys who belong in the top half of a lineup.

We'll have cleared a bunch of salary — JDM, Eovaldi, Kiké, Vazquez, Plawecki, Bradley, possibly Bogaerts, so something like $70-90m in AAV — and have a bunch of younger talent ready or close to it. We'll have a long shopping list with big question marks at SS, RF, C, and DH, but also a ton of resources in salary and prospects to address those holes. We should be able to add or extend two high-end players, give full-time roles to players like Casas, Duran, Wong, and Franchy, and still have plenty of money to fill out the roster and maintain flexibility.