I definitely wanted them to resign Pomeranz to a one year deal even if he would end up in the pen. But anyhow.... my Keuchel suggestion was a joke honestly.
W.S. Hangover Cures: The Devil is in the Details...
- Thread starter Pozo the Clown
- Start date
JBJ and Devers both look lost at the plate. Sale needs to get right (and has shown signs of it...) but Eovaldi also needs to seriously imporove... obviously Porcello too. And just general focus of the entire team.... but yeah... some signs of turnaround.
I don't know how you argue with jc's quality analysis
Mocked because the original comment was "we'll basically be lucky to win 95 and that's only because of how bad the Orioles and Jays are", but hey, context doesn't matter. I also didn't guarantee 108 wins again, I said they're still a 100-win squad (which would still be quite a regression to the mean, but a more reasonable one) but don't let facts get in the way of a good, unwarranted, and biased attack.
Also, projection systems are still bullshit.
Carry on.
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Can you quote here my exact phrasing where I said “lucky.” You completely missed the context yourself. It was praising the team that they could probably coast to a baseline of 95 wins on their talent and the fact there’s a lot of wins out there from bottom feeders. Which this horrid start even proves those aren’t gimme’s. 95 is a baseline, you don’t start at 108. It’s a generational season not a norm .
I am growing concerned with the Red Sox poor start especially after Alex Spier's post on the poor outlook for teams that come out of the gate badly.
A quick look turned up this https://tht.fangraphs.com/losing-streaks-winning-teams/. But I think that losing streak may be too simple a model. A streak can break or extend on the smallest of plays. It seems a "slump" of some duration might be more predictive.
Has there been good research to assess the probability of making the playoffs when a team endures a slump, regardless of when in the season the slump occurs?
This is likely not easy. One need define "slump": duration, winning percentage, and other factors. Perhaps the measure of a slump is deviation from expected performance.
Thoughts?
A quick look turned up this https://tht.fangraphs.com/losing-streaks-winning-teams/. But I think that losing streak may be too simple a model. A streak can break or extend on the smallest of plays. It seems a "slump" of some duration might be more predictive.
Has there been good research to assess the probability of making the playoffs when a team endures a slump, regardless of when in the season the slump occurs?
This is likely not easy. One need define "slump": duration, winning percentage, and other factors. Perhaps the measure of a slump is deviation from expected performance.
Thoughts?
- 6 times the Sox have gone up by 2-0 or more in the early innings. They are 1-5 in those games.
- Their six wins were as follows: 1, 3, 1, 1, 2, 4 for an average margin of victory of: 1.8 runs per game.
- Their 11 losses were as follows: 8, 1, 2, 7, 1, 4, 7, 1, 2, 4, 7 for an average margin of defeat of: 4.0 runs per game
- They have had only one blowout win (4+ run margin). And that came thanks to a 3-run homer in the 8th, so it was nip and tuck right til the end.
- They have had 6 blowout losses.
- They are 3-8 on the road and 3-3 at home.
- They just went 3-3 at home to two teams who are a combined 11-21 (8-18 not counting their games vs. Boston).
- They have just 3 quality starts in 17 games.
I mean, that's not a little slump. That's absolutely mind-bogglingly bad.
- Their six wins were as follows: 1, 3, 1, 1, 2, 4 for an average margin of victory of: 1.8 runs per game.
- Their 11 losses were as follows: 8, 1, 2, 7, 1, 4, 7, 1, 2, 4, 7 for an average margin of defeat of: 4.0 runs per game
- They have had only one blowout win (4+ run margin). And that came thanks to a 3-run homer in the 8th, so it was nip and tuck right til the end.
- They have had 6 blowout losses.
- They are 3-8 on the road and 3-3 at home.
- They just went 3-3 at home to two teams who are a combined 11-21 (8-18 not counting their games vs. Boston).
- They have just 3 quality starts in 17 games.
I mean, that's not a little slump. That's absolutely mind-bogglingly bad.
I think at this point it’s just a matter of keeping our heads above water until things start clicking. Finish April at or around .500 and go from there. I think it’s fair to suggest that the spring training strategy might have left us unprepared for the season, maybe we see the payoff in the Fall. Who knows?
Hang around until you can hit your stride and start moving in the right direction.
Hang around until you can hit your stride and start moving in the right direction.
Finish at .500 for April? Maybe. But they could easily go 1-4 against NY and Tampa, and put themselves at 7-15 before coming back home. The rest of this month they have:
2 at NY
3 at TB
3 vs Det (sitting at 8-7)
3 vs TB
2 vs Oak (who waxed Boston earlier in the year)
Of those 13 games, right now it would be something if they could win 7 of them. They could easily win just like 4-5 of them. The way they're going, and given the competition they're facing, they could easily be like 11-19 by the end of the month, and like 12 games back already.
I hate to be glass half empty, but they needed to turn it around at home against these two crap teams and they barely got 3 wins out of the homestand.
It is really tough to say this is a good team that is playing poorly. They are getting killed. If they are. 500 by end of May that would be pretty great.
I feel like they should get somewhat of a free pass for tonight because Paxton was unhittable.
on the other hand, all the same issues are still prominent. and some stuff I heard from DD & Cora today, makes me think there's some panic settling in that could, if "X factor" players like JBJ/Devers/Pedey continue to contribute nothing to the team, actually make this a gigantic hole by Memorial Day.
on the other hand, all the same issues are still prominent. and some stuff I heard from DD & Cora today, makes me think there's some panic settling in that could, if "X factor" players like JBJ/Devers/Pedey continue to contribute nothing to the team, actually make this a gigantic hole by Memorial Day.
I'm struggling to continue to come up with theories about this start. Last year they executed as well as I've ever seen a team execute. This year they're failing to execute in every phase of the game. Same manager, almost the same roster, vastly different results. I'm completely stumped.
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Yes. Every loss adds more time needed to dig out of it. Need a 10-12 game heater at some point but hard to count on that and impossible with their current starting pitching.
This seems like an Occam’s Razor scenario; it seems like they came into the season unprepared and with a hangover and that’s probably the case.
Mookie .212
Pearce .100
Moreland .236
Nunez .171
Bradley .160
Devers .246
Vasquez .195
Pedroia .105
They rank 26th in overall team defence, Only four teams are worse. They rank 28th in team pitching and 16th in Team hitting before tonight's game. They are not good at anything right now.
Pearce .100
Moreland .236
Nunez .171
Bradley .160
Devers .246
Vasquez .195
Pedroia .105
They rank 26th in overall team defence, Only four teams are worse. They rank 28th in team pitching and 16th in Team hitting before tonight's game. They are not good at anything right now.
FanGraphs has the Red Sox at 12.5% to win the division, 40.1% to win the wild card, 52.6% to make the playoffs. Before the season it was 32.2%, 58.1%, 90.3%.
32% for division at start of season seems awfully low to me, but I guess projections had things pegged pretty well.
If we have a lost season on our hands, it won’t kill me but it would be a real waste of an opportunity. One of the best teams of the era with 95% of team back, a really legit chance to repeat.
Don't think anybody is saying this... but it's getting to be more and more difficult to imagine the Sox not making up several games within the next few weeks and harder to imagine them even being a competitive team by mid season. The team is playing like garbage... they're about as good as their record is... and probably worse. I don't see positive signs from anyone.... and more I see a sloppiness and frustration that is spreading.
Well, it's not lost. But the question is how much of a handicap would you say was allowable for the Sox to start the season with?
We have 6 victories and 145 games left to play. If today, the club transforms into last year's team, playing at a .667 percentage, we'd get: 96 additional victories and finish at 102. If we play at 2016/17 levels, .574, it's 83 additional victories for 89 total.
But let's say we get another 6-11 stretch, identical to what we've done so far, giving us 12 victories with 128 left to play. At .667, that's 85 additional victories for 97 total wins. At .574 that's 73 additional victories for 85 total wins.
85 wins allowed the Twins to sneak into the post season as the second wild card team in 2017. But that appears to be the rock bottom for recent seasons, with the upper 80s being more likely to result in a WC berth.
The season isn't cooked, but it's teetering on the edge. I won't be surprised in the least if they come home from this road trip having gotten swept- they're playing that badly. If they come home at 6 - 16 then I'd say the hole they've dug is too big and the Spring Training plan of 2019 will go down as one of the greatest management failures in this city's sports history.
This might be a dumb question but what did they specifically do that's different from last year?
Slower ramp up and reduced innings for guys like Price, Sale, and Eovaldi(they've also already had TWO bullpen games in the Reg Season). No starter exceeded their IP in 2019 compared to 2018 (except for ERod who pitched 0 IP in 2018). Sale had two fewer starts, Porcello one, Price one, Eovaldi three. I'm not finding any sources that speak to off field prep like off season workouts, a weight program, long tossing, etc. Given how lousy the SP has been, I think it's safe to say this plan has been a disaster. I get the logic coming off last October, but these guys have been ramping up the same way for their entire careers and the risk seems to have outweighed the reward since they now have to dig out of a massive hole and will probably end up in a coin flip, all hands on deck Wild Card game. Why not just stick with the ol' phantom DL or skipping a start around the ASB?
Hector Velazquez had 8 starts last year, if you are referring to his as the Bullpen games. And the Sox didn't start with 11 games in 11 days last year so they kinda had to use a 6th starter a couple times
That's true, but Marathon Monday and pushing Sale to yesterday certainly seems like an extension of their slow ramp up plan. (I don't really buy into the weather being the greatest variable in this decision.)
If the answer actually is 'They weren't ready for the season', then the team's true talent level should begin appearing very soon. None of us have any idea if they will be a .667 team again, but they are surely not a .333 team.
This may not be the worst year for a NY/Tampa/Boston dogfight in the division, provided the Sox can play respectably in the head-to-head matchups and the Yanks and Rays beat each other up all year long.
This may not be the worst year for a NY/Tampa/Boston dogfight in the division, provided the Sox can play respectably in the head-to-head matchups and the Yanks and Rays beat each other up all year long.
In order to get to 94 wins, they'd need to win 88 of their last 144. That's a .611 clip (which projects to 99 wins over a full season). There's NO WAY their starting pitching will continue to be this bad. It's just not possible. Other than Price, the other four guys have been as bad as any MLB rotation has ever been in the history of the sport. It's not possible that it stays like this.
I actually expect them to have one of those stretches where they rip off like 12 of 15 or something like that. But who knows what kind of hole they'll be in by then.
I actually expect them to have one of those stretches where they rip off like 12 of 15 or something like that. But who knows what kind of hole they'll be in by then.
When the Yankees finally get healthy, that might start to happen. But that might not be for a few more weeks or more and by then Tampa could be up by 10 or more games on the second place team; they're already up 7 or 8 on the Red Sox. And I realize it's early, but if that Tampa Bay team stays healthy, they are going to likely be a buzzsaw all season long and may not lose much ground by the time the perceived iron of the division starts heating up. Right now, they seem like they could easily be runaway division winners.
What are some modern day comps for teams with high expectations falling decently under water and storming back?
Off top of my head, I recall:
2001 Oakland A's started 9-18 and finished with 102 wins
2007 MFYs started 21-29 and finished with 94 wins
Honorable mention:
1996 Red Sox started off 30-44 (!!) and still fought back into the WC race, though ultimately fell short with 85 wins.
Red Sox haven't gotten to the point that those other teams did yet, but it's not far off.
Have we ruled out that a group of tiny aliens took the Red Sox talent because they were challenged by the Looney Tunes to a baseball game?
At this point all the starters have pitched at least three times each. If they needed more innings by the end of Spring Training, they certainly have them by now. The fact that they're still pitching terribly suggests something else is wrong. Or they're just paying back all of last year's good fortune with interest.
And FWIW, the bullpen guys are starting to crash and burn as well.
Hembree was fine through his first four games (3.38 era). He's since given up 3 runs in his last 3.2 innings, and his ERA is up to 5.00.
Brewer was at 1.59 through his first six games. He's now up to 6.75.
Walden was at 0.00 through his first four games. He's now at 3.38 having given up 3 runs in his last 2 innings.
Thornburg was at 3.00 through his first five games. He's since given up 4 runs in his last 2.1 ip, and now has an ERA of 6.48.
So we are now seeing the bottom bullpen guys get lit up, on top of the starting pitching woes. Basically, the quality pitchers right now are Price, Workman, Velazquez (!), Barnes, and Brasier. Everyone else is getting crushed.
Hembree was fine through his first four games (3.38 era). He's since given up 3 runs in his last 3.2 innings, and his ERA is up to 5.00.
Brewer was at 1.59 through his first six games. He's now up to 6.75.
Walden was at 0.00 through his first four games. He's now at 3.38 having given up 3 runs in his last 2 innings.
Thornburg was at 3.00 through his first five games. He's since given up 4 runs in his last 2.1 ip, and now has an ERA of 6.48.
So we are now seeing the bottom bullpen guys get lit up, on top of the starting pitching woes. Basically, the quality pitchers right now are Price, Workman, Velazquez (!), Barnes, and Brasier. Everyone else is getting crushed.
I'm sure the bullpen's struggles of late have a connection to the amount of innings they've had to log in the early part of this season. When your starter can't pitch into the 5th or beyond, it means sending out those guys early and often and that will diminish effectiveness over time, especially if they are middle-of-the-pack pitcher(s) in terms of overall talent.
Even the new guy got bombed last night.
Even the new guy got bombed last night.
The 2007 Yankees had a ton of injuries to their rotation using 10 different starters in April. Not a comp IMO
Nothing honorable about 85 W, so won't mention the 96 team
The A's are a good comp. Starting pitching got off to a rough start. Picking up Jermaine Dye at the deadline was huge. 59 RBI in 61 games, but the improved starting pitching was the key to their 2ndhalf success
Holes are hard to dig out of. If the Ray's are not for real it's not much of a hole . We should know more in a week or two how deep it is. Quite a contrast with last year where we were 10 games better. The Yankees got out of their hole last year but never could catch us. Let's hope the 2019 Ray's are not for real
Agreed but that's also why I mentioned off-season or off-field regiments. Maybe they had them cut down off-season work outs, or weight lifting, or maybe they lessened the amount of long tossing and bullpen work. I'm not sure, but it's possible. Maybe at the start of the season it was physical, but with the pressure of the bad start weighing on them it's now more psychological. Either way I think their plan is going Hindenburg on them and given a do-over they'd gladly go back to the old way of doing ST.
Well one implication of not re-signing Kimbrel and Kelly is that it pushes everyone up the line, and having them would mean that the scrubs pitch less. But yes, I still pin the majority of the problems on the godawful starting pitching.
Actually NY took over first briefly last season after their 17-1 stretch took them to 26-10 overall, they were a game up on May 9th (the only date I checked).
I think they are almost certainly in regular season pitching shape now, but as you said the psychological component has to be the most in play right now. At this point, each starter has to go out there thinking he needs to twirl a complete game shutout to give the team a chance to win and that's not a sustainable mindset. The good news, for now, is that David Price appears to have things figured out and has been pretty consistent thus far, and Eduardo Rodríguez is coming off a stellar performance (albeit against a shit team) and has the chance to replicate that success tomorrow (against an equally undermanned (in terms of MLB talent) team). If he pitches well, that's two out of 5 who are at least somewhat dependable. Eovaldi's a bit of a wild card; he was better last time out but still having trouble with keeping the ball in the park. He should do well tonight against this lineup and that might be the confidence boost he needs to get over the hump. That leaves Sale (who looked better last night in terms of velocity and swings and misses but was victimized by more bad infield (and catcher) defense and then the bullpen let the game completely get away (not that Paxton was going to allow anything after the Sox blew their best scoring chance with the heart of the lineup batting). I'm taking that as a positive sign and think the next team Sale faces (Tampa, right?) is likely going to get a better showing.
Porcello is the one who has struggled the most this season and it fits with his career pattern. Not to keep beating the dead horse, but I still think they should try to sign Keuchel and either send Rick to the bullpen as a long guy to see if he can figure it out that way and either cut bait if he can't or trade him at the deadline if he's got anything of value to offer (starting pitchers, even half-season rentals, usually yield a good haul). As I've said, repeatedly, the Red Sox are not going to bring him back (though he's due to be great next season based on the same pattern) and I have no problem having him become the scapegoat of the pitching staff. I know Keuchel hasn't pitched in months and would need a little time to get it together, but you'd still have Porcello and Velazquez in the bullpen to piece it together every 5th day for the week or two that Keuchel would need to get readjusted. They could DFA Ramirez or Brewer to clear a spot and just call up Hernandez to be the 25th man or something. Keuchel might even take a one-year (with an option) make-good deal to reestablish his value, so they wouldn't necessarily be tied to him past this season.
If Porcello gets lit up again next time out, they kind of have to do something because you can't have an automatic L every 5 days when you aren't getting any automatic Ws on the other four (and they definitely can't afford it with their record as it stands right now).