Vrabel and Julio Down by the Schoolyard: Titans Get Jones

BigSoxFan

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E5 Yaz

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If only we still had Mallett to offer in exchange
 

Cellar-Door

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The bit about Cam, really more evidence that guys in the league view him in a MUCH more positive light than most fans or commentators.
 

Jungleland

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I'm hesitant. On the con side, despite the excitement of the offseason, I don't think they're one player away. I might change that opinion if one of the QBs looks like they can give us top third of the league play this year, but I imagine I'm not alone in not being particularly bullish on that. As for Julio himself, missing half the season at age 31 with a nagging injury is an obvious red flag.

Not without pros, though - 1370 yard pace last year if he played 16 games, which would continue a downward trend but still would have been 7th in the league. (And adjusting everyone for games played, was indeed 7th in the league per game.)

If I'm understanding the cap hit right, I don't think he's likely to be worth 19 million in 2022 and even less likely in 2023 so I probably pass.
 

ZMart100

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If I'm understanding the cap hit right, I don't think he's likely to be worth 19 million in 2022 and even less likely in 2023 so I probably pass.
It's less than that. The bonuses would stay on Atlanta's cap since they have already been payed, so the cap hit for the Pats would be $11.5m in 2022 and 2023.

I don't see why a trade would be in Atlanta's interest. They are clearly trying to make it work with Ryan for now, so talent should be important. They would not get cap relief by moving him. The only way it makes sense is if they think he's cooked and want to get some value before the rest of the league finds out. So I wouldn't be interested.
 

Mystic Merlin

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This is Larry Fitzgerald 2.0 right?
Well I think the difference is Jones is much more likely to be traded to somebody than Fitz ever was, but I think it’s unlikely his destination is the Pats, yes.

The reasons the Fitz ‘rumor’ became a joke was there never was any actual rumors of him being moved, there was that totally coincidental photo of him at Logan, and somebody floated the idea of him getting dealt to the Pats in a package around Ryan Mallett.
 

Jungleland

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It's less than that. The bonuses would stay on Atlanta's cap since they have already been payed, so the cap hit for the Pats would be $11.5m in 2022 and 2023.

I don't see why a trade would be in Atlanta's interest. They are clearly trying to make it work with Ryan for now, so talent should be important. They would not get cap relief by moving him. The only way it makes sense is if they think he's cooked and want to get some value before the rest of the league finds out. So I wouldn't be interested.
Ah, right. I thought it was 11.5 at first but second guessed the more I looked at that page. For me, that certainly makes his remaining mileage a potentially worthy gamble for any team with the need at WR and available cap space. Have to think 1000 yard + guys are going to cost more than that in each of the next two offseasons, right?

I'm with you on thinking the benefits are dubious for Atlanta in light of the recent re-commitment to Ryan. It's a bandaid for a tough situation with the draft class, but severely weakens the offense for the tail end of Ryan's prime if Jones isn't cooked. While I admit minimal knowledge of other options Atlanta has for getting under the cap, I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the idea that Julio for a 2nd squares with what looks at least like an attempt to compete in 2022 if not this season.
 

Jimbodandy

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Ah, right. I thought it was 11.5 at first but second guessed the more I looked at that page. For me, that certainly makes it worth discussing for any team with the need at WR and available cap space.

I'm with you on thinking the benefits are dubious for Atlanta in light of the recent re-commitment to Ryan. It's a bandaid for a tough situation with the draft class, but severely weakens the offense for the tail end of Ryan's prime if Jones isn't cooked. While I admit minimal knowledge of other options Atlanta has for getting under the cap, I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the idea that Julio for a 2nd squares with what looks at least like an attempt to compete in 2022 if not this season.
The money is the money, man. If they had a few easy restructure candidates on the roster that would get them out of cap hell, sure they'd do that.

Fools like "cap is crap" Felger think that this stuff is easy peasy, but mismanagement of the cap is common and there aren't as many get out of jail free cards in the NFL CBA as baseball and hoop have.
 
While I admit minimal knowledge of other options Atlanta has for getting under the cap
The other likely option involves extending Grady Jarrett and restructuring his contract, which is what I think will ultimately happen. (The third, less likely option involves cutting about six marginal players and gutting the team's depth at several positions, but I can't really see that happening.) But if Julio does get traded to the Patriots, I can at least take solace in what happened the last time the Falcons traded a key WR to the Patriots.

;)
 

Cellar-Door

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It's less than that. The bonuses would stay on Atlanta's cap since they have already been payed, so the cap hit for the Pats would be $11.5m in 2022 and 2023.

I don't see why a trade would be in Atlanta's interest. They are clearly trying to make it work with Ryan for now, so talent should be important. They would not get cap relief by moving him. The only way it makes sense is if they think he's cooked and want to get some value before the rest of the league finds out. So I wouldn't be interested.
Post June 1 trade saves them $15.3M, only other clear way they can cut cap is a restructure (or post June 1 trade) of Grady Jarrett.
The reason they need to cut cap..... they need about $6-6.5M more space in order to sign their rookie class.

Atlanta needs to do something, and they've backed themselves into a corner.
The smart move is probably a Jarrett restructure, but they'll definitely have to keep their options open with Jones
 

BigSoxFan

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The other likely option involves extending Grady Jarrett and restructuring his contract, which is what I think will ultimately happen. (The third, less likely option involves cutting about six marginal players and gutting the team's depth at several positions, but I can't really see that happening.) But if Julio does get traded to the Patriots, I can at least take solace in what happened the last time the Falcons traded a key WR to the Patriots.

;)
The universe needs to correct itself by having Julio traded to Pats for same price as Sanu.
 

RedOctober3829

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Giardi is on WEEI now discussing his report. He says they're interested but not sure the interest level. There's 6 or 7 teams circling around on Jones. As far as price tag, it depends on whether they want cap space or draft capital. If they want draft capital, they'll have to eat some of the money. If they want space, the draft pick given up will be low. He says Julio and Cam are really good friends.
 

tims4wins

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Giardi is on WEEI now discussing his report. He says they're interested but not sure the interest level. There's 6 or 7 teams circling around on Jones. As far as price tag, it depends on whether they want cap space or draft capital. If they want draft capital, they'll have to eat some of the money. If they want space, the draft pick given up will be low. He says Julio and Cam are really good friends.
How do they deal him and gain cap space? I don't understand.
 

soxhop411

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BigSoxFan

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Can he hear the other hosts? Sharpe gave absolutely no indication he was calling live from the set of the show.
He did at the very end but clearly Julio had already answered. After listening to it, I don't think Julio knew at the time he was answering Shannon's questions that it was on live tv. If I were Julio, I'd be a little annoyed by Shannon not leading off with that (unless it was scripted, which I doubt).

But the most important thing is that it does sound like Julio is going to get traded to somebody before camp. Would love for it to be the Pats.

Julio
Agholor
Bourne
Meyers
Jonnu
Henry

Now, that would be exciting given the OL and running game.
 

E5 Yaz

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I’m busily trying to suppress memories of Tory Holt, Joey Galloway, Chad Ochocinco, and Antonio Brown.
It'll eventually work ... you've already dispensed with memories of the Reggie Wayne Era
 

BigSoxFan

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I’m busily trying to suppress memories of Tory Holt, Joey Galloway, Chad Ochocinco, and Antonio Brown.
In fairness, AB didn’t work out for non-physical reasons. He was going to have a big year for us if they had kept him around.
 

Jungleland

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How do they deal him and gain cap space? I don't understand.
Ignoring the mechanics of how it works, what is being reported is that a trade after June 1 incurs a dead money hit for this year of 7.5ish million, freeing up ~15 million for this year against the cap. Next year, they'd eat the dead money on the '22 and '23 years of the dealin, resulting in freeing up only 3.5 million for 2022.
 
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tims4wins

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Oversimplifying---because they don't pay him this year's salary of $15M.
Ignoring the mechanics of how it works, what is being reported is that a trade after June 1 incurs a dead money hit for this year of 7.5ish million, freeing up ~15 million for this year against the cap. Next year, they'd eat the dead money on the '22 and '23 years of the dealin, resulting in freeing up only 3.5 million for 2022.
I get all of this. What I don't understand is how the Falcons will either get "picks or cap space" in return. This isn't MLB or NBA. The cap space is what it is depending on the timing of the trade. There should be zero impact on the trade compensation. But the Giardi quote - "If they want draft capital, they'll have to eat some of the money. If they want space, the draft pick given up will be low. " - I don't understand this.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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From a strictly team-fit perspective, GB with Rodgers would be amazing but I don't believe they have the cap flexibility to get it done.
 

tims4wins

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If they want a better draft pick, they'd be asked to eat more of his base salary just like the Panthers had to do with Teddy Bridgewater.
You can eat base salary in an NFL trade? I'm not sure I knew that. Of course, that defeats the purpose of trading him, does it not? They're up against it cap-wise.
 

Cousin Walter

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Can a team convert portions of a signing bonus into a base salary and then trade a player so the acquiring team adds all that large base salary to their cap number?

I would be curious to learn how the Falcons could trade him without eating a lot of dead money.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I will always have concerns about skill position players who lit it up indoors, on track like fields, moving to shitty weather in outdoor stadiums. Julio's splits haven't been terrible outdoors over the years, but the samples are pretty small, but I always hesitate with these situations.
 

tims4wins

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I will always have concerns about skill position players who lit it up indoors, on track like fields, moving to shitty weather in outdoor stadiums. Julio's splits haven't been terrible outdoors over the years, but the samples are pretty small, but I always hesitate with these situations.
Haven't been terrible? He's borderline been better outdoors than in. It's a wash at worst.

Outdoors: 14.5 YPA, 64.3 catch %, 9.30 Y/target, 6.9 catches/game, 99.8 Yds/game, 25 TD in 49 games
Indoors (ballparking because of how Pro Football Reference splits out dome vs retroroof): 15.7 YPA, 64.4 catch %, 10.1 yds/target, 5.9 catches/game, 94 yds/game, 35 TD in 84 games
 

BigJimEd

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Can a team convert portions of a signing bonus into a base salary and then trade a player so the acquiring team adds all that large base salary to their cap number?

I would be curious to learn how the Falcons could trade him without eating a lot of dead money.
No, Falcons have already paid Jones that signing bonus and there is no way to get it off the cap now. As others have said, after June 1st, the dead money gets spread over a couple years but that's about it.
 

Captaincoop

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I'd take 2020 Julio Jones, if healthy. He's still worlds better than any other pass catcher on the roster.
Really? I'd love to have him, but I'd also still have Agholor as their number one wide receiver if they obtained Jones tomorrow. He's 32, that's like 91 in wide receiver years.
 

Obscure Name

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Giardi is on WEEI now discussing his report. He says they're interested but not sure the interest level. There's 6 or 7 teams circling around on Jones. As far as price tag, it depends on whether they want cap space or draft capital. If they want draft capital, they'll have to eat some of the money. If they want space, the draft pick given up will be low. He says Julio and Cam are really good friends.
Smart plan, trade for Julio to keep Cam happy when gets gets benched.
 

DJnVa

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But the Giardi quote - "If they want draft capital, they'll have to eat some of the money. If they want space, the draft pick given up will be low. " - I don't understand this.
Perhaps he means that some team interested in him may need to clear space for him and Atlanta may have to take a player back but that makes it seem they could get, say a 3rd rounder for JJ and get all that space or a 2nd rounder AND a player and that player clears a little space for the team acquiring JJ?
 

Jungleland

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Really? I'd love to have him, but I'd also still have Agholor as their number one wide receiver if they obtained Jones tomorrow. He's 32, that's like 91 in wide receiver years.
Julio had more receptions last year in 7 fewer games (51 to 48), a much better catch %age (75 to 58.5), and higher yards per target (11.3 to 10.9). Agholor bested him in yds per catch (18.7 to 15.1) and TDs (8 to 3). There's plenty of caveats, obviously - Ryan > Carr (though they were very similar last year), health being a skill, and the possibility that 2020 was the beginning of respective breakout/endgame given age. But I think it's quite likely Jones is the better receiver in 2021 and I wouldn't be shocked at him outperforming Agholor over the next 3 seasons, either. I'm admittedly pretty low on Agholor, though. Last year shows he has real upside, but the Philly years inspire little confidence.
 
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