Vrabel and Julio Down by the Schoolyard: Titans Get Jones

BigSoxFan

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How good - or not good - is Harry? Talk to me like I'm a Falcons fan who hasn't watched every Patriots snap from the past several years...why would I want to see him included in a trade? (You guys seem to badmouth him a lot more than you praise him.)
He’s a really good interviewer so there’s that...
 

E5 Yaz

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Of all the receivers the Patriots have drafted under BB ... Harry is definitely one of them
 

Cellar-Door

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How good - or not good - is Harry? Talk to me like I'm a Falcons fan who hasn't watched every Patriots snap from the past several years...why would I want to see him included in a trade? (You guys seem to badmouth him a lot more than you praise him.)
If we want the good side... he's big and strong and he's good at contested catches. Some teams probably think the Patriots are using him incorrectly. He's not quick, he's not shifty, he's a big guy who is decently fast straight line and leaps well.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Hey folks, I'd encourage everyone to only post Twitter rumors from people who have that lovely blue checkmark next to their handles.

It's not strictly enforced (no posts deleted) but is a guideline to follow.
 

Euclis20

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How good - or not good - is Harry? Talk to me like I'm a Falcons fan who hasn't watched every Patriots snap from the past several years...why would I want to see him included in a trade? (You guys seem to badmouth him a lot more than you praise him.)
He's got the speed of a tight end, the hands of a fullback and the strength of a medium sized WR. He's like DK Metcalf, if Metcalf were bad at everything. I'm sure he's good at something, but it hasn't shown up yet. The kindest thing I can say about him is that he gets hurt a lot, so maybe he'll be healthy someday and not be terrible (also when he's hurt and not playing, he's not actively hurting the team on the field).
 

Bowser

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Harry has an elite RAS. He will lead your WR room in the bench press. He jumped 38.5 inches, so if you need him to do that = check. He has great flow. He's his own worst critic. He scored 2 TDs last year without even trying. He's "poised" for a breakout.
 

Cellar-Door

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He's got the speed of a tight end, the hands of a fullback and the strength of a medium sized WR. He's like DK Metcalf, if Metcalf were bad at everything. I'm sure he's good at something, but it hasn't shown up yet. The kindest thing I can say about him is that he gets hurt a lot, so maybe he'll be healthy someday and not be terrible (also when he's hurt and not playing, he's not actively hurting the team on the field).
See this stuff is just silly. He has great strength and solid/good hands... he just has low agility, limited burst and lacks Metcalf type speed. He's basically a TE/WR tweener whose only clear skill right now is contested stuff.
 

Shelterdog

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What's the line from As Good as It Gets about how he writes women so well--he imagines a man and removes reason and accountability?

Harry is what would happen if you took Dez Bryant or Josh Gordon (seriously his combine performance is very close to those two players) and removed all instincts or feel for the game. He's a big powerful guy and his hands are actually ok, he's just somehow never in the right place, always starting off on literally the wrong foot, doesn't have the technique to get off the line. Maybe part of it is a lack of quickness that doesn't get measured at the combine well (although he was a very good punt returner in college so I'm not sure that's it). But where a guy like Dez or Gordon is just attacking the route, attacking the ball, Harry is kind of just always in the wrong place by a bit, always rounding the route or letting a smaller guy break through him, whatever.
 

pappymojo

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On Harry, I would point out that he was a first round draft pick who was injured during his rookie off season and missed pretty much all of training camp. In that year, after coming back from his injury, he also made a great sideline catch that was a touchdown against the Chiefs in week 14, but for a bad call by the referee. If called correctly, that play could have reset the narrative on both his rookie season and the post season.

Then in his second year, there was no off season due to covid, and he was catching passes from Cam Newton who not only didn't have an off season in his first year with the team, but Cam also got covid.

Not trying to make excuses, but there is still potential that Harry can be a quality NFL receiver.
 
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PedroKsBambino

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Harry is a guy who you take a shot on at a low price---he has size, strength, some athletic tools, and some RAC moves and potential. But the production and consistency are both below replacement-level to date, so you are betting on development. I do think a different role (and perhaps simplifying that role for him) are things worth trying.

He's a gamble, but there is some potential there to be a combo of a bigger possession receiver who has some small-receiver RAC ability. Not saying he'll defintely get there, just that there are some reasons to invest development time.
 

Euclis20

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See this stuff is just silly. He has great strength and solid/good hands... he just has low agility, limited burst and lacks Metcalf type speed. He's basically a TE/WR tweener whose only clear skill right now is contested stuff.
Sure, but when a first round pick gives you absolutely nothing in 2 seasons, you can either be silly or sad. It's a good thing he's not terrible with contested catches because that's all he gets. He probably hasn't good separation from a cornerback since high school.

As noted above, the hope with him is that injuries in year 1 and a shortened offseason in year 2 have been especially harmful to his development. If that's not the case we can forget about him being an NFL caliber receiver, let alone an impact player that you'd hope to draft in round 1.
 

Shelterdog

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Sure, but when a first round pick gives you absolutely nothing in 2 seasons, you can either be silly or sad. It's a good thing he's not terrible with contested catches because that's all he gets. He probably hasn't good separation from a cornerback since high school.

As noted above, the hope with him is that injuries in year 1 and a shortened offseason in year 2 have been especially harmful to his development. If that's not the case we can forget about him being an NFL caliber receiver, let alone an impact player that you'd hope to draft in round 1.
Point of order. I watch a lot of Pac-12 football and Harry absolutely got great separation against stanford's defensive backs. Which probably says more about Stanford's academic requirements than it does about anything else but still...

For me there's a real chicken and egg question with Harry and it's like question 738 I'd be curious to know BB"s thoughts on. A guy like Harry who is a workout warrior and it doesn't translate, is it because he lacks something in coordination/quickness/body control compared to a Bryant or Anquin Bolden, something hard to pick up in testing, or is it mental and/or practice driven? It's hard for me to think that Harry can't physically run the exact same twelve yard in-cut that Josh Gordon could, yet somehow Harry always f's it up.
 

Cellar-Door

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Point of order. I watch a lot of Pac-12 football and Harry absolutely got great separation against stanford's defensive backs. Which probably says more about Stanford's academic requirements than it does about anything else but still...

For me there's a real chicken and egg question with Harry and it's like question 738 I'd be curious to know BB"s thoughts on. A guy like Harry who is a workout warrior and it doesn't translate, is it because he lacks something in coordination/quickness/body control compared to a Bryant or Anquin Bolden, something hard to pick up in testing, or is it mental and/or practice driven? It's hard for me to think that Harry can't physically run the exact same twelve yard in-cut that Josh Gordon could, yet somehow Harry always f's it up.
Some of it may be mental, but with Harry some of it is physical. He isn't really a full "workout warrior" in a sense. He's RIDICULOUS at 2 things: he's insanely strong and he's a very good jumper. He has decent but not great long speed (like Gordon) but his splits and 3 cone show a guy who has way below average quick twitch and change of speed ability. He struggles because he can't beat NFL corners into his breaks, and when he wins at the line on strength he doesn't have the burst to take advantage.

Now, if he gets a bit better, runs good routes, he could still be okay. I mean AJ Brown isn't a freak at change of direction or burst, he's a bully who you throw it in a tight window and nobody but him will get it.
I do wonder a little if Harry would have been closer to a breakout last year with better QB play though. He seemed open more often, his drop rate was low, but we didn't have the QB play to get him the type of small window sideline throws that would really have helped him. Cam playing poorly hurt him the most, because he isn't going to get wide open deep, or take a short pass and make something happen, which are the things Cam did decently.
 

Shelterdog

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Some of it may be mental, but with Harry some of it is physical. He isn't really a full "workout warrior" in a sense. He's RIDICULOUS at 2 things: he's insanely strong and he's a very good jumper. He has decent but not great long speed (like Gordon) but his splits and 3 cone show a guy who has way below average quick twitch and change of speed ability. He struggles because he can't beat NFL corners into his breaks, and when he wins at the line on strength he doesn't have the burst to take advantage.

Now, if he gets a bit better, runs good routes, he could still be okay. I mean AJ Brown isn't a freak at change of direction or burst, he's a bully who you throw it in a tight window and nobody but him will get it.
I do wonder a little if Harry would have been closer to a breakout last year with better QB play though. He seemed open more often, his drop rate was low, but we didn't have the QB play to get him the type of small window sideline throws that would really have helped him. Cam playing poorly hurt him the most, because he isn't going to get wide open deep, or take a short pass and make something happen, which are the things Cam did decently.
Are his splits and 3-cone really that bad for a big receiver? his three cone is 7.05; Dez Bryant was 7.10. (Gordon didn't run it) The 10/20/40 splits of the 40 are Harry 1.62/2.67.4.53; for Bryant 1.53/2.51/4.52, for josh gordan 1.57/2.64/4.52. [Anquin Boldin had a notoriously bad 40 but his shuttle and three cone of 4.25 and 7.35 aren't that different from harry's 4.28/7.05.] Those are very small differences.

I'm not trying to say that I think Harry will be good. Seems pretty unlikely that things will fall into place for him after two years of not a lot of positives. But I really am struck by people pointing to physical failings of his when the objective measures show that his physical skills are very very close to those of many incredibly successful athletes. I don't think Harry is not Dez Bryant because he lacks Dez Bryants burst after he wins at the line or ability to beat an NFL corner into his break; I think he' struggling because for whatever the reasons he isn't winning at the line period (often against a slower smaller person) and when he goes into his break he doesn't use his body well, doesn't aggressively change direction every single time, etc.
 

BaseballJones

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So far, Harry's play has been below what his size and athleticism suggest it should be. He should have been more productive than this. Granted, year one he was hurt and year two he had Cam, who we all know was pretty bad. So I'd suggest there's still hope he can be something.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation

The top WR last year getting separation was Deebo Samuel, at 4.6 yards on average (!!!). Jakobi Meyers is the best Pats' WR in this category, at 3.4 yards (#28 in the NFL). Byrd was at 3.0 yards (#69). Harry was at 2.9 (#83).

Other notables:

- Amendola: 3.4 (#24)
- Lockett: 3.4 (#31)
- A. Brown: 3.2 (#45)
- D. Adams: 3.2 (#51)
- JuJu: 3.1 (#60)
- Diggs: 3.0 (#75)
- Bourne: 2.8 (#85)
- Julio Jones: 2.7 (#95)
- Thielen: 2.7 (#99)
- Jefferson: 2.6 (#101)
- Metcalf: 2.6 (#102)
- Agholor: 2.4 (#117)

Yes, Harry got more separation on average than DK Metcalf, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and Julio Jones.
 

Cellar-Door

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Are his splits and 3-cone really that bad for a big receiver? his three cone is 7.05; Dez Bryant was 7.10. (Gordon didn't run it) The 10/20/40 splits of the 40 are Harry 1.62/2.67.4.53; for Bryant 1.53/2.51/4.52, for josh gordan 1.57/2.64/4.52. [Anquin Boldin had a notoriously bad 40 but his shuttle and three cone of 4.25 and 7.35 aren't that different from harry's 4.28/7.05.] Those are very small differences.

I'm not trying to say that I think Harry will be good. Seems pretty unlikely that things will fall into place for him after two years of not a lot of positives. But I really am struck by people pointing to physical failings of his when the objective measures show that his physical skills are very very close to those of many incredibly successful athletes. I don't think Harry is not Dez Bryant because he lacks Dez Bryants burst after he wins at the line or ability to beat an NFL corner into his break; I think he' struggling because for whatever the reasons he isn't winning at the line period (often against a slower smaller person) and when he goes into his break he doesn't use his body well, doesn't aggressively change direction every single time, etc.
I think those differences are pretty big. 6% for example (Dez vs. Harry) on 10 yard splits goes a long way.
At the NFL level the gaps in performance can be really small.
A 6% gap in 40 times is the difference between a 4.4 flat and a 4.66.

The other thing I'd caution on is.... 7-10 years is a long time in the NFL, the relative athleticism has gone way up. So Harry is less explosive against a league that has gotten a lot more explosive.
Looking at the RAS scores can be a good way to measure that, Dez's burst was good for his time period, Gordon's okay, Harry's poor.

So far, Harry's play has been below what his size and athleticism suggest it should be. He should have been more productive than this. Granted, year one he was hurt and year two he had Cam, who we all know was pretty bad. So I'd suggest there's still hope he can be something.

Yes, Harry got more separation on average than DK Metcalf, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and Julio Jones.
I do kinda wonder what Harry would look like with a YOLO offensive coach and QB. I think if say he had Fitz or Jameis throwing him 5-7 jumpballs downfield a game I bet his numbers look better.
 

Cellar-Door

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Agreed. Big average separation on targets only tells me that the QB is throwing to a guy only when wide open.
I think it matters more if you see a guy with big separation on like 7-10 targets a game... if you're that open that often it says something.
Harry getting that open on 4 targets a game is nice, but I'd need to see close to twice that before I start saying.... oh yeah this guy is always open.
 

tims4wins

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I think it matters more if you see a guy with big separation on like 7-10 targets a game... if you're that open that often it says something.
Harry getting that open on 4 targets a game is nice, but I'd need to see close to twice that before I start saying.... oh yeah this guy is always open.
Agreed.
 

Pandemonium67

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I also don't suppose the separation stat takes into account single vs. double coverage. I doubt Harry drew a lot of double coverage last season.
 

CoolPapaLaSchelle

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The Harry rabbit hole is a fascinating diversion, but I am sure I am not the only one who thinks it would be great to get back to what should be the pressing topic of the thread - Was it just bad injury luck that made Hart Lee Dykes a bust?
 

Shelterdog

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I think those differences are pretty big. 6% for example (Dez vs. Harry) on 10 yard splits goes a long way.
At the NFL level the gaps in performance can be really small.
A 6% gap in 40 times is the difference between a 4.4 flat and a 4.66.
I do question the precision of the supposed six percent gap on a 10 yard split--and it's not like Harry was less impressive than the others on all of the states; in many cases he was superior.Like Heart Lee Dykes he's in the ballpark athletically of incredibly successful receivers so what's the differentiator? I submit it's not really explosiveness.
 

Cellar-Door

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I do question the precision of the supposed six percent gap on a 10 yard split--and it's not like Harry was less impressive than the others on all of the states; in many cases he was superior.Like Heart Lee Dykes he's in the ballpark athletically of incredibly successful receivers so what's the differentiator? I submit it's not really explosiveness.
I get that thought process, but to me 40s are actually kinda useless, your ability to sustain after your initial burts is less valuable in football than getting the burst off the ball. Splits aren't great either, but I think measuring explosiveness is important (his mediocre broad vs. great Vertical also makes me think there is something there).

I agree it's not all physical, it's a lot of things... route running, offense fit, QB play, etc. I just think having what appears to be subpar agility and burst gives less room for error. Much like a QB with subpar arm strength... his technique and field reading need to be better to make up for it.
 

BaseballJones

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Agreed. Big average separation on targets only tells me that the QB is throwing to a guy only when wide open.
Yeah, I mean, like any metric, there's some noise in there, right? But if this number is about targets, then it means that when the QB throws you the ball, here's on average how much separation you have. And if you are open on other plays and the QB doesn't throw you the ball, what good is it? I guess the point is that the metric shows that Harry gets more open than we think he does.

So why is his career catch rate just 57.9%?

So this is wildly unfair, but let's compare him to Calvin Ridley, who also has a separation average of 2.9 yards, like Harry.

2020 stats....

Average cushion:
- Ridley: 6.1 yards
- Harry: 6.0 yards (or 3.6 inches less)

Separation:
- Ridley: 2.9 yards
- Harry: 2.9 yards

Targeted Air Yards*
- Ridley: 14.9 yards
- Harry: 8.2 yards
*The average passing air yards per target for the receiver, by measuring the yards downfield at the time of all passing attempts that the receiver is the target. This stat indicates how far down the field they are being targeted on average.

Targets/Catches (Catch%)
- Ridley: 143/90 (62.9%)
- Harry: 57/33 (57.9%)

Drops (Drop%)
- Ridley: 0 (0.0%)
- Harry: 1 (1.8%)

So they got basically the same cushion when they lined up. They got the same amount of separation when thrown to. Virtually the same number of drops (1 vs. 0). But Ridley has a better catch percentage, despite being thrown to MUCH further downfield on average.

In other words, it's not like Harry is being smothered compared to Ridley. It's not like Harry is not getting similar separation - he is. It's not like he's dropping passes left and right (he's not). He basically isn't being thrown to nearly as much - 4.1 targets per game for Harry vs. 9.5 targets per game for Ridley.

So you have a much better QB throwing a LOT more to Ridley, a lot further downfield than Harry. I wonder what happens if you put Harry on Atlanta last year instead of New England.

How much of this is due to their respective quarterbacks? Matt Ryan vs. Cam Newton?
 

Super Nomario

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So they got basically the same cushion when they lined up. They got the same amount of separation when thrown to. Virtually the same number of drops (1 vs. 0). But Ridley has a better catch percentage, despite being thrown to MUCH further downfield on average.

In other words, it's not like Harry is being smothered compared to Ridley. It's not like Harry is not getting similar separation - he is. It's not like he's dropping passes left and right (he's not). He basically isn't being thrown to nearly as much - 4.1 targets per game for Harry vs. 9.5 targets per game for Ridley.
I would imagine getting similar separation on routes a lot more downfield is suggestive of a lot better ability to separate. If you're just running quick stuff to the flat or shallow crossers, defenders are usually not going to try to cover you particularly tight. If you're running a lot of vertical routes, they're going to want to stick close.

How much of this is due to their respective quarterbacks? Matt Ryan vs. Cam Newton?
Harry wasn't the only receiver on the team last year and Cam was throwing to all these guys. Harry had the worst efficiency numbers, as he did the season before when Brady was the QB.
 

BaseballJones

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Right. But WHY? Because he gets similar separation and doesn’t drop passes. So is it that he doesn’t get open *as often*, or is it that he doesn’t have good QB play? (Because in 2019 Brady wasn’t great either)
 

BaseballJones

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And last year Matt Ryan attempted 626 passes compared to just 368 for Cam.

So volume matters obviously.
 

Super Nomario

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Right. But WHY? Because he gets similar separation and doesn’t drop passes. So is it that he doesn’t get open *as often*, or is it that he doesn’t have good QB play? (Because in 2019 Brady wasn’t great either)
Brady in 2019 was fine when he had decent receivers and not fine when he had to throw to guys like Harry and a hobbled Sanu.

I would imagine Harry's "similar separation" is the product of the routes he's running - a lot of short flat routes where defenders leave a big cushion on him, few vertical routes where he challenges DBs. I would imagine he would separate a lot less than Ridley if he had to run a similar set of routes.

Here's Harry's nextgen route charts (only four games for some reason): https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/n'keal-harry/HAR654593/season
and he's Ridley's https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/calvin-ridley/RID652384/season

Almost all of Harry's work is within 10 years of the LOS, whereas Ridley is going all over the place.
 

BaseballJones

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Right, don't misunderstand - I'm not saying Harry is better than Ridley or even as good. But Harry IS getting open. And he doesn't drop passes. If Cam threw 630 passes a year, Harry's numbers - even at the same rate as before - would obviously go up and look a lot better. But it seems like he could stand to have more passes thrown his way.

Because those separation numbers are for when he's targeted. And if he's getting the same separation as Ridley when thrown to, but Ridley is catching 63% of his passes compared to 57% for Harry, but Harry only dropped one pass all year, that means that the reason for the incompletions isn't the receiver - it's the QB.
 

Jimbodandy

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Right, don't misunderstand - I'm not saying Harry is better than Ridley or even as good. But Harry IS getting open. And he doesn't drop passes. If Cam threw 630 passes a year, Harry's numbers - even at the same rate as before - would obviously go up and look a lot better. But it seems like he could stand to have more passes thrown his way.

Because those separation numbers are for when he's targeted. And if he's getting the same separation as Ridley when thrown to, but Ridley is catching 63% of his passes compared to 57% for Harry, but Harry only dropped one pass all year, that means that the reason for the incompletions isn't the receiver - it's the QB.
Or it means that the targeting numbers or more likely the separation numbers aren't accurate.
 

BuellMiller

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"This just in, the Patriots have reportedly acquired Julio Jones from Atlanta by trading N'Keal Harry and a 1997 first round draft pick, looks like Belichick has done it again."
If you're going to send Chris Canty along with Harry, I think you should have to include Dominique Easley and Andy Katzenmoyer to get all the Patriots best first round busts from the last 25 years together.
 

BaseballJones

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Or it means that the targeting numbers or more likely the separation numbers aren't accurate.
Well the targeting numbers are pretty solid. I mean it's not that hard to identify who the QB is throwing to.

But the separation numbers might be harder to divine, for sure. I mean...how is it determined? Say a receiver runs a medium out. When he makes the break, he might have 5 yards of separation, when the ball is thrown. But by the time the ball gets there, maybe the defender has closed and it's only 1 yard. So how do they calculate it?

I don't know the answer. But it's the only real stat we have on it, and I trust that they're consistent in how they measure it. So at least it's a bit of an apples-to-apples comparison.
 

Cellar-Door

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Right, don't misunderstand - I'm not saying Harry is better than Ridley or even as good. But Harry IS getting open. And he doesn't drop passes. If Cam threw 630 passes a year, Harry's numbers - even
at the same rate as before - would obviously go up and look a lot better. But it seems like he could stand to have more passes thrown his way.

Because those separation numbers are for when he's targeted. And if he's getting the same separation as Ridley when thrown to, but Ridley is catching 63% of his passes compared to 57% for Harry, but Harry only dropped one pass all year, that means that the reason for the incompletions isn't the receiver - it's the QB.
True to an extent... though drop numbers are pretty wonky, they usually only count balls you touch, so there is some not getting to a ball slightly off-target stuff there. So part of it could be Ridley making better adjustments to slightly off target throws, he makes the catch on a ball a WR SHOULD catch where Harry doesn't, but it isn't a drop because drops don't assume a level of competence in seeking out the ball.

Brady in 2019 was fine when he had decent receivers and not fine when he had to throw to guys like Harry and a hobbled Sanu.

I would imagine Harry's "similar separation" is the product of the routes he's running - a lot of short flat routes where defenders leave a big cushion on him, few vertical routes where he challenges DBs. I would imagine he would separate a lot less than Ridley if he had to run a similar set of routes.

Here's Harry's nextgen route charts (only four games for some reason): https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/n'keal-harry/HAR654593/season
and he's Ridley's https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/calvin-ridley/RID652384/season

Almost all of Harry's work is within 10 years of the LOS, whereas Ridley is going all over the place.
I don't know that this is really true. There is a lot of revisionism on Brady's 2019 after his bounceback 2020. He struggled, he especially struggled when the line was a mess and he was dinged up. His WRs weren't good, but a lot of it was on the line too, and some was on Brady who has a tendency to just not throw to guys he doesn't trust.
Cushion is measured. I think people are really overthinking this... Ridley gets open a lot, and he does it downfield, that's really valuable. Harry gets open a decent amount, but in less valuable parts of the field.

Or it means that the targeting numbers or more likely the separation numbers aren't accurate.
I don't think there is much reason to doubt the NFL's player tracking data in particular. It's more likely that how you determine what falls in the area of catch is the issue. So a ball that's a bit off line... you don't touch it so it isn't a drop, but you didn't catch it. So how do you apportion the blame for that incompletion.

Well the targeting numbers are pretty solid. I mean it's not that hard to identify who the QB is throwing to.

But the separation numbers might be harder to divine, for sure. I mean...how is it determined? Say a receiver runs a medium out. When he makes the break, he might have 5 yards of separation, when the ball is thrown. But by the time the ball gets there, maybe the defender has closed and it's only 1 yard. So how do they calculate it?

I don't know the answer. But it's the only real stat we have on it, and I trust that they're consistent in how they measure it. So at least it's a bit of an apples-to-apples comparison.
It's time of arrival per their glossary.
 

Super Nomario

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I don't know that this is really true. There is a lot of revisionism on Brady's 2019 after his bounceback 2020. He struggled, he especially struggled when the line was a mess and he was dinged up. His WRs weren't good, but a lot of it was on the line too, and some was on Brady who has a tendency to just not throw to guys he doesn't trust.
Through the first 8 games, Brady had a 95 QB rating, ~65% completion, 7.3 YPA, and the team was 8-0. It wasn't vintage Brady, and there were ugly patches (like the Buffalo game), but it was fine. That dropped to 80.8, ~57%, 5.9 in the final 8 games (which was when Harry and Sanu started figuring prominently), and that decline happened even though the OL was better.


Cushion is measured. I think people are really overthinking this... Ridley gets open a lot, and he does it downfield, that's really valuable. Harry gets open a decent amount, but in less valuable parts of the field.
The relationship between cushion and the route isn't apples to apples, though. If I'm running a speed out against a CB who's giving me an 8-yard cushion, it doesn't require any skill to separate by 3-4 yards, because I'm starting out with separation (the cushion) and cutting early and away from the CB. If I'm running a post, it's a different story; I've got to eat up that cushion before I make my break, and my separation needs to be in the opposite direction from the cushion. Separating by 3-4 yards in that scenario requires way more skill.
 

RedOctober3829

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I don't know that this is really true. There is a lot of revisionism on Brady's 2019 after his bounceback 2020. He struggled, he especially struggled when the line was a mess and he was dinged up. His WRs weren't good, but a lot of it was on the line too, and some was on Brady who has a tendency to just not throw to guys he doesn't trust.
I think he struggled in large part because his WR's just weren't good and a lot of us were saying that in real time. Once AB and Gordon were gone, there was not an outside receiver Brady could get the ball to. Edelman was playing hurt and was constantly drawing double teams because of the lack of weapons. Meyers started to come on at the end of the year, but by then it didn't make much of a difference. Brady relied on 2 guys for 42% of the targets and 56% of the catches and one is a running back. The line actually got better as the year went on and the running game improved, but the passing game got worse.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think he struggled in large part because his WR's just weren't good and a lot of us were saying that in real time. Once AB and Gordon were gone, there was not an outside receiver Brady could get the ball to. Edelman was playing hurt and was constantly drawing double teams because of the lack of weapons. Meyers started to come on at the end of the year, but by then it didn't make much of a difference. Brady relied on 2 guys for 42% of the targets and 56% of the catches and one is a running back. The line actually got better as the year went on and the running game improved, but the passing game got worse.
I don;t think the pass blocking got much better, and Brady got hurt as well. And yes... the WRs were bad, nobody doubts that or thinks it wasn't a part of the issue.

However, I don't think the target share says what you think it does. To me a lot of that is what I'm talking about... Brady was reticent to throw to certain guys and it hurt the offense. Brady to me spent a lot of 2019 passing up on chances to make throws into medium sized windows in favor of dumpoffs, throwaways or tight window throws to his favorites.

Edit- now I think part of that is that Brady is an anticipation thrower, he has to be because he's got average arm strength. So it's tough to throw to a guy you don't trust when you have to throw before he's open.... but sometimes you just gotta do it if that's who is out there. Brady definitely has a rep for that, and he even showed it in TB early, taking a while to warm up to some guys.
 
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Super Nomario

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I don;t think the pass blocking got much better, and Brady got hurt as well. And yes... the WRs were bad, nobody doubts that or thinks it wasn't a part of the issue.

However, I don't think the target share says what you think it does. To me a lot of that is what I'm talking about... Brady was reticent to throw to certain guys and it hurt the offense. Brady to me spent a lot of 2019 passing up on chances to make throws into medium sized windows in favor of dumpoffs, throwaways or tight window throws to his favorites.

Edit- now I think part of that is that Brady is an anticipation thrower, he has to be because he's got average arm strength. So it's tough to throw to a guy you don't trust when you have to throw before he's open.... but sometimes you just gotta do it if that's who is out there. Brady definitely has a rep for that, and he even showed it in TB early, taking a while to warm up to some guys.
Harry got a fine amount of targets in 2019 - he was targeted on 11.8% of his snaps, which is less than Edelman (14.8%) or White (19.2%, skewed because he plays disproportionately on passing downs) but similar to Sanu (12.3%), Meyers (9.7%), Gordon (11.1%) and more than the TEs. The problem is he was the least efficient receiver in the entire league on a per-target basis. Now he improved in that area in 2020, when he upgraded to being like the third-least-efficient receiver in the entire league. That's the issue here, not volume. He did a terrible job with the opportunities he had.
 

RedOctober3829

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I don;t think the pass blocking got much better, and Brady got hurt as well. And yes... the WRs were bad, nobody doubts that or thinks it wasn't a part of the issue.

However, I don't think the target share says what you think it does. To me a lot of that is what I'm talking about... Brady was reticent to throw to certain guys and it hurt the offense. Brady to me spent a lot of 2019 passing up on chances to make throws into medium sized windows in favor of dumpoffs, throwaways or tight window throws to his favorites.

Edit- now I think part of that is that Brady is an anticipation thrower, he has to be because he's got average arm strength. So it's tough to throw to a guy you don't trust when you have to throw before he's open.... but sometimes you just gotta do it if that's who is out there. Brady definitely has a rep for that, and he even showed it in TB early, taking a while to warm up to some guys.
I just don't think other guys were running precise enough routes in order to be open and in Harry's case also struggled against man coverage enough so that they did not get open on a consistent enough basis. He also was working without a TE which also severely limited his middle of the field options.