Let's posit that Bielsa is that mythical creature, an effective and value-add international manager. Is there another one? Who is getting the whole to equal more than the sum of its parts? If we just say "whoever won the world cup", that's more down to the player pool and execution, right? How can we even judge the relative merits of how the manager set them up tactically and with player selection? If we're good at that, though, if spotting it is a skill that smart fans can acquire, then there ought to be someone else whose team outperformed their talent level, right? Not just necessarily someone who won hardware, therefore they're a great NT coach?
Like, I think you can argue that Marsch's Canada outperformed their talent at Copa America, but we're uncomfortable with drawing that conclusion, aren't we?
I think the key to evaluating international managers it to look at long terms against good opponents. which is tough because:
1. Terms tend to be short
2. Tournaments are really swingy and we tend to put a lot of emphasis on winning them which can often be luck based.
It's easy to evaluate a manager based on 30 weeks of work or 50 or 100 at the club level because the competition is the same for their peers, luck balances out more, and they can make more impact.
For a lot of managers the best way to evaluate them is.... how well do they succeed across all their top opponent games, what are the underlyings (ie scored, allowed, xG) and how does that compare to any other manager who had the pool before.
I think where a lot of international managers earn their pay is.... picking the players. The hardest thing is figuring out what works and being willing to drop the "names" for the player who fits better.
But yeah, overall it is much tougher to determine impact of managers, but also.... all soccer is to some extent players. Pep gets called best in the world... but he also only manages places where he'll have the best talent. He had a great quote about Bielsa in 2022
"Give him my Barcelona and you will see how he will win titles," he said. "Give me Leeds, with all due respect to the Leeds players, but I would still be in the Championship."
Now I don't totally believe that because Bielsa while a genius wears out his club teams so you get 2-3 years to turn over the side or he'll break them (which is why I think he's a great INT fit, he packs a lot of development into a small time and then the players go home with his film lessons but don't get the brutal physical training).
