USMNT: Hold My Beer

Vinho Tinto

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Why do you think it’s a bad draw? It’s impossible to say with the open ended nature of the 4th team but the US stands a legitimate chance against all of them. This US team isn’t good enough to be favored to get out of a group but I would be disappointed if they didn’t finish 2nd. You really think they can’t beat Wales?
Agreed. Outside of getting Qatar as the pot 1 team, this is a great draw for the USA.
 

Dduncan6er

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Why do you think it’s a bad draw? It’s impossible to say with the open ended nature of the 4th team but the US stands a legitimate chance against all of them. This US team isn’t good enough to be favored to get out of a group but I would be disappointed if they didn’t finish 2nd. You really think they can’t beat Wales?
Doesn’t 2nd place advance from the group?
 

tmracht

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On the whole this group should be a blast to watch. England is a mid tier pot 1. They could conceivably finish with anywhere from 4 to 9 points. Iran will be stingy, US has struggled to break the bunker, but by game 3 they should have an idea what they need to do. Wales/Scotland/Ukraine has variance for sure, but even Wales is not some UEFA juggernaut. They have talent no doubt but this isn't like drawing Germany as a non-pot 1 UEFA. Dislike Euro2 playing England when there may be nothing for England to play for other than bragging rights. But hopefully that's minimized by US stealing a point on Black Friday forcing them to have something to play for game night 3.

I dare someone to double book this slot.

50574
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Why do you think it’s a bad draw? It’s impossible to say with the open ended nature of the 4th team but the US stands a legitimate chance against all of them. This US team isn’t good enough to be favored to get out of a group but I would be disappointed if they didn’t finish 2nd. You really think they can’t beat Wales?
To me the bummer is what it could have been. The way the draw unfolded there were four balls left and one of them could not be assigned to the USA. The other three were Cameroon, Ghana and Euro. I think the U.S.A. can beat Wales or Scotland or Ukraine. But I would have preferred one of the other two balls!
 

Mr. Wednesday

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Why do you think it’s a bad draw? It’s impossible to say with the open ended nature of the 4th team but the US stands a legitimate chance against all of them. This US team isn’t good enough to be favored to get out of a group but I would be disappointed if they didn’t finish 2nd. You really think they can’t beat Wales?
I think they can beat just about anybody in the field (Wales included), but Wales' record says they are ~Pot 2 (or very high pot 3) quality. Pot 4 has the biggest variation in team quality, ranging from pot 2 or high pot 3 quality (Peru, Wales, Ecuador) to just happy to be there (Ghana). I really wanted to avoid Peru and Wales, and in retrospect I should have wanted to avoid Ecuador as well.

By Elo, the ranks of the pot 4 teams that we might have drawn are:
15 - Peru
19 - Wales
20 - Ecuador (really should have been on my "no" list too)
54 - Saudi Arabia
56 - Cameroon
71 - Ghana

(The U.S. is ranked 21st, and thus would be a minor underdog to advance out of the group.)
 
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Plantiers Wart

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Every cycle is the same for England. For 3 years and 10 months the press and fans there are the most negative, cynical bunch ever, then the month before the tournament everyone is convinced they are going to win it, followed by the mass depression after the inevitable penalty shootout loss.
Football’s coming’ home
 

teddykgb

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I think they can beat just about anybody in the field (Wales included), but Wales' record says they are ~Pot 2 (or very high pot 3) quality. Pot 4 has the biggest variation in team quality, ranging from pot 2 or high pot 3 quality (Peru, Wales, Ecuador) to just happy to be there (Ghana). I really wanted to avoid Peru and Wales, and in retrospect I should have wanted to avoid Ecuador as well.

By Elo, the ranks of the pot 4 teams that we might have drawn are:
15 - Peru
19 - Wales
20 - Ecuador (really should have been on my "no" list too)
54 - Saudi Arabia
56 - Cameroon
71 - Ghana

(The U.S. is ranked 21st, and thus would be a minor underdog to advance out of the group.)
Thanks for the detail. Puts a lot of stock in the ELO ratings. Have they proven to be any good?

just looking at Wales results in qualifying and they mostly had a few good draws(CZE 2x, Belgium) and a good win against Austria. Thumped Belarua. I guess I just don’t see what they’ve really done over the last year to be a top 20 team in the world. The best teams they’ve played in last year of qualification have been Belgium (D), Denmark (L), Italy (L), France (L). Maybe Austria is better than Denmark I don’t know. I’m just not seeing anything about that team that tells me they’re definitely significantly better than a team like Ghana or Cameroon
 

candylandriots

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Thanks for the detail. Puts a lot of stock in the ELO ratings. Have they proven to be any good?

just looking at Wales results in qualifying and they mostly had a few good draws(CZE 2x, Belgium) and a good win against Austria. Thumped Belarua. I guess I just don’t see what they’ve really done over the last year to be a top 20 team in the world. The best teams they’ve played in last year of qualification have been Belgium (D), Denmark (L), Italy (L), France (L). Maybe Austria is better than Denmark I don’t know. I’m just not seeing anything about that team that tells me they’re definitely significantly better than a team like Ghana or Cameroon
Any team with Wayne Hennessey as its goalkeeper doesn’t really worry me either.
 

GB5

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how significant is the benefit to the US if Scotland or Ukraine beats Wales. I guess the better question is you put the USA, Wales, Ukraine and Scotland all in a group, and asked every other team in the tournament if they could pick the order in which they would want each of them to land in their 4some as the easiest opponent what would it look like, and how great is the disparity: would it look something like:
Scotland, Ukraine, US, Wales, or something like,
Scotland (big gap) Ukraine(big gap) US/Wales
 

Mr. Wednesday

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Ukraine is tough to decide because of the obvious non-football elephant in the room. I'd say there's a bit of a gap from Wales to Scotland, though. Wales is bottom pot 2 / top pot 3 on ranking, vs. Scotland at bottom pot 3 / middle pot 4.

Re Wales' performance recently, I don't think they have any wins that absolutely wow you, but they've been steadily getting more or less par results for a while. They've made a lot of hay with good results at the Euros, which get a lot of weight with Elo as they do with the FIFA rankings. If you go to eloratings.net and click on any team, you can see their points exchanged since day 1.
 

GB5

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can someone provide a breakdown of the styles of England and Iran. I read somewhere in this thread that Iran essentially likes to park the bus. It seems like the US will be chasing England a bit, but will have more possession against Iran. Can someone with way too much time on their hands do a breakdown on the playing styles of England/Iran/Wales/Scotland/Ukraine, and whether what the US does well or poorly makes this a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
 

Titans Bastard

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Are you all done talking about the World Cup draw? Can we move on, please?

Alright then: (long drumroll) the CONCACAF NATIONS LEAGUE DRAW.

Group D:
USA
El Salvador
Grenada


So that means in June, we'll have two friendlies as well as matches against El Salvador and Grenada. Hopefully the friendlies are good!

There's also a two-match window in September.
 

GB5

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They need to find themselves some better sides to play against. Any non WC teams of quality interested in a friendly?
 

rguilmar

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They need to find themselves some better sides to play against. Any non WC teams of quality interested in a friendly?
Italy! Too soon?

There’s been a rumor out there for a while of a friendly against Argentina. We shall see though.
 

Jimy Hendrix

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rguilmar

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That's a good article. I am curious if others are seeing what the writer is in terms of "fans" being so anti-Gregg or anti-player X to be rooting against the success of the team/player. Or if we are seeing people who did not celebrate qualification and will not be happy with however the USMNT performs at the World Cup. I am not saying that Snavely is using a strawman, just that I haven't seen anything at that level. I don't doubt it exists, likely on Twitter, but has anyone here seen or had experience with this group of "fans"?

I usually keep myself off of twitter. I went on once to see what it was like, and the vitriol directed at one another was enough to keep me off probably forever. I get the bulk of my USMNT fix here, on the Scuffed discord, on podcasts like Scuffed/Orange Slices/Tactical Yanks/ Unsackable, and on various YouTube channels. I would say the most critical are the Tactical Yanks guys (Tactical Manager and 11 Yanks on YouTube) but I don't find them to be crossing into the territory the writer is mentioning, actively or passively rooting against USMNT success or against individual players. I certainly have been (and will likely continue to be) critical of Gregg, but I want him to win every frickin game personally.
 

Titans Bastard

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That's a good article. I am curious if others are seeing what the writer is in terms of "fans" being so anti-Gregg or anti-player X to be rooting against the success of the team/player. Or if we are seeing people who did not celebrate qualification and will not be happy with however the USMNT performs at the World Cup. I am not saying that Snavely is using a strawman, just that I haven't seen anything at that level. I don't doubt it exists, likely on Twitter, but has anyone here seen or had experience with this group of "fans"?

I usually keep myself off of twitter. I went on once to see what it was like, and the vitriol directed at one another was enough to keep me off probably forever. I get the bulk of my USMNT fix here, on the Scuffed discord, on podcasts like Scuffed/Orange Slices/Tactical Yanks/ Unsackable, and on various YouTube channels. I would say the most critical are the Tactical Yanks guys (Tactical Manager and 11 Yanks on YouTube) but I don't find them to be crossing into the territory the writer is mentioning, actively or passively rooting against USMNT success or against individual players. I certainly have been (and will likely continue to be) critical of Gregg, but I want him to win every frickin game personally.
I think it's mostly reply-guys and fringe accounts who are very vitriolic and very prolific. In the end it's probably not a huge number of fans, but they loom large because they post about this stuff like it's their job, so they take an outsized place in the discussion.

It's basically like how a relatively small group of awful posters can ruin a message board if it's unmoderated, and Twitter is basically unmoderated.

TM and 11Y aren't my cup of tea but I agree that they aren't who is being addressed in this article. We'd all be better off we just muted/blocked the worst 5% of USMNT Twitter more aggressively.
 

Senator Donut

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@67YAZ Poland is going to offer USYNT goalkeeper Gaga Slonina a callup to the full national team for its upcoming nations league matches.

View: https://twitter.com/cjsmith91/status/1516758185574555653


I was mildly surprised he hasn’t been called into the USMNT full national team with Turner’s injury. I would have liked to see him or Frei instead of Johnson, but third goalkeeper isn’t exactly the most important position.
 

Pesky Pole

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@67YAZ Poland is going to offer USYNT goalkeeper Gaga Slonina a callup to the full national team for its upcoming nations league matches.

View: https://twitter.com/cjsmith91/status/1516758185574555653


I was mildly surprised he hasn’t been called into the USMNT full national team with Turner’s injury. I would have liked to see him or Frei instead of Johnson, but third goalkeeper isn’t exactly the most important position.
I hate to see this news. With most of our options (Steffen at MC and Turner soon at Arsenal) missing regular football now, it was nice to have a young option playing every week. I'm not a fan of Johnson and guess Horvath/Frei would be the next up - especially if Horvath can keep his spot. Still, shiny new goalie was nice to have in reserve. Let's see what he does.
 

Senator Donut

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I hate to see this news. With most of our options (Steffen at MC and Turner soon at Arsenal) missing regular football now, it was nice to have a young option playing every week. I'm not a fan of Johnson and guess Horvath/Frei would be the next up - especially if Horvath can keep his spot. Still, shiny new goalie was nice to have in reserve. Let's see what he does.
Based on starting lineups, it looks like Horvath is now on the bench behind Samba, so he's not playing regularly either.
 

67YAZ

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Hmmmmm. I haven’t heard any whispers that Gaga has interest in playing for Poland. Publicly, he’s always talked about the USMNT. But obviously, this is a big choice.

It was tricky the last window - Gaga tweaked a hamstring a couple games before the window and then he tested positive for COVID. It was still a surprise when Gaga didn’t get the call for the senior or youth squads, but I also see how the timing was bad and rest was probably the best thing for Slonina.

My guess is that he stays USMNT. Gregg had good things say about him during and after the January camp, and Gaga had good things to say, too. Moreover, the quality that everyone raves about with Slonina is his maturity - he carries himself like a 10 year veteran. I don’t think he’ll be impulsive. I think he’ll make a considered decision and see that there is a clear path to being the long term starter here.
 
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67YAZ

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I’ll add that I think Gregg is taking a good approach to capping young players. In my estimation, everyone he’s capped so far has earned it, which helps maintain a strong culture and belief within the squad. It also lets young players with options know that Gregg isn’t going to sweet talk you, cap you, and leave you stranded.

One of the consequences of this is that some high quality kids will jump on opportunities elsewhere. So it goes if you have a strong pipeline of talent.
 

Pesky Pole

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Isn't Frei too old at this point?
Probably. He turned 36 today so he’s more of a “break glass” kind of guy for the current cycle. It sucks that we don’t have a keeper playing regularly in the mix.

Players trying to find loans to play this summer/fall is going to be one of the more interesting things to watch. Atlanta lost Guzan and seems to have money, could they make a loan play for Horvath? Do we want that with MLS season timing (early Oct end with WC at end of Nov)?
 

ThePrideofShiner

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USMNT will play Morocco on June 1 in Cincinnati.

https://www.ussoccer.com/stories/2022/04/usmnt-to-kick-off-world-cup-preparation-against-morocco-on-june-1-in-cincinnati


As an aside, how many fucking games are they going to play in Ohio? This isn't a qualifier, so the need for a home friendly crowd isn't an excuse. They haven't played in the Northwest in nearly a decade. They have only played in the Pacific time zone twice in the past nine years - a Copa Centenario third place game in Arizona and a 2017 qualifier in San Jose.

Seems like spreading some games out around the country would be a good idea, but I guess they only do that when they have a chance to give Matt Turner frostbite.
 

Senator Donut

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USMNT will play Morocco on June 1 in Cincinnati.

https://www.ussoccer.com/stories/2022/04/usmnt-to-kick-off-world-cup-preparation-against-morocco-on-june-1-in-cincinnati


As an aside, how many fucking games are they going to play in Ohio? This isn't a qualifier, so the need for a home friendly crowd isn't an excuse. They haven't played in the Northwest in nearly a decade. They have only played in the Pacific time zone twice in the past nine years - a Copa Centenario third place game in Arizona and a 2017 qualifier in San Jose.

Seems like spreading some games out around the country would be a good idea, but I guess they only do that when they have a chance to give Matt Turner frostbite.
It's incredibly dumb and shortsighted. I understand the desire to keep games away from the west coast when the majority of the player pool is traveling to and from Europe and Concacaf away matches are nowhere close, but that doesn't apply here. Ironically, the perfect time for a Ohio match would be immediately after a match in Ontario, but somehow the USSF screwed that up too.

For whatever reason, the USSF is dead-set on playing in MLS venues and of those only turf fields. It makes sense when they play a sanctioned match (Concacaf won't approve Yankee Stadium or Citi Field, so cramming a pitch into a baseball or football stadium is harder than it seems), but it drastically reduces the geographic diversity of possible venues.
 

Titans Bastard

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Berhalter said there will be at least three players called up in June who have not been involved in the Octagonal.

1) Haji Wright, a forward who has been on a hot streak for a midtable club in Turkey lately
2) Cameron Carter-Vickers, who has done really well with Celtic this season
3) A mystery dual national. The most widely rumored player is Malik Tillman, who is on the distant fringes of the Bayern first team, but he has up to this point demonstrated very little interest in playing for the US, as he has been involved with the German setup. We'll see.

Pepi might be out for the June camp, to give him a mental break. He hasn't had time off in a really long time.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/05/04/gregg-berhalter-usmnt-roster-world-cup/
 

Senator Donut

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Berhalter said there will be at least three players called up in June who have not been involved in the Octagonal.

1) Haji Wright, a forward who has been on a hot streak for a midtable club in Turkey lately
2) Cameron Carter-Vickers, who has done really well with Celtic this season
3) A mystery dual national. The most widely rumored player is Malik Tillman, who is on the distant fringes of the Bayern first team, but he has up to this point demonstrated very little interest in playing for the US, as he has been involved with the German setup. We'll see.

Pepi might be out for the June camp, to give him a mental break. He hasn't had time off in a really long time.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/05/04/gregg-berhalter-usmnt-roster-world-cup/
What a fantastic window for players you were writing about earnestly six years ago! It’s great to see Wright and CCV start to fulfill their potential. It’s hard to believe they are still only 24 years old.
 

tmracht

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Twellman saying it's his achilles. :( Can we wrap Chris Richards and Walker Zimmerman in bubble wrap.
 

IdiotKicker

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Fuck, I love Robinson’s game. I thought he was fantastic all qualifying cycle, that’s a big loss, and obviously sucks for him.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Really worried about injuries tanking our chances. This group has not proven they can stay healthy.
 

cromulence

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Terrible news for him. For the team though, assuming this opens the door for Brooks to return, it honestly doesn't have to be the end of the world. Robinson hadn't been very good over the last couple windows of qualifying.
 

Titans Bastard

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Terrible news for him. For the team though, assuming this opens the door for Brooks to return, it honestly doesn't have to be the end of the world. Robinson hadn't been very good over the last couple windows of qualifying.
I wouldn't necessarily assume that this opens the door for Brooks to return.
 

Jimy Hendrix

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I wouldn't necessarily assume that this opens the door for Brooks to return.
It does bring a new edge to the "we're taking a look at CCV this summer" reports. He shows well and he might be the right guy to pick for your "didn't play a minute of qualifying but makes the WC squad" betting pool.
 

67YAZ

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Slonina on the Poland call up roster. Not sure this means it’s a done deal, but Gaga clearly hasn’t squashed it. (Note how many keepers are getting the call - I don’t see why you want to be part of that when the USMNT picture is much more open…)


On a related note, the Fire tied down their other teenage phenom keeper, Chris Brady, to a new deal. Brady’s pro career has been hamstrung by his parents insistence that he finish high school. He graduates later this month and should get in the Fire net once Slonina heads to Europe. I’m not aware of any dual national possibilities for Brady…

 

Titans Bastard

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Poland's roster, I think, needs to get cut down for Nations League, so there's a good chance that Slonina is along for the ride and will not play. Time will tell if this is a get-to-know-you-in-camp situation or a declaration of intent.
 

67YAZ

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The men and women have a new CBA with USSF.

It’s a very clever deal that pools and mostly evenly splits revenues between the men and women. Props to the men who will likely end up sending prize money to the womens side (eg, getting to the round of 16 in the mens WC pays out more than winning the womens WC). But like Walker Zimmerman explains, it’s a deal to be proud of and show off as a model to the rest of the world.

I wonder how dropping salaries for players in the NWSL will affect the league. There’s also a new CBA with the NWSL, but the top European clubs be able to offer much higher salaries to the world class players. Could be some talent drain or NWSL owners will have to really step up their revenue generation.
 

Pesky Pole

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Kudos to USSF and the players for this deal. It really speaks to their determination to make something like this happen.

And it is amazing the discrepancy at the World Cup level. And it's even worse than what 67YAZ lists above. The team that finishes 32nd at the men's World Cup this year will take home $9M. The team that wins the next women's World Cup will earn $5M.

Pay Disparity

Note this article uses the numbers from the last World Cup held....I updated the numbers above based on the projections/announced figures for future World Cups.
 

kenneycb

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What’s the difference in revenue that the men’s WC brings in vs the women’s? Those numbers in abstract don’t lead me to any conclusion outside the men’s WC generates more revenue than the women’s.
 

rguilmar

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Hot rumor is that Malik Tilman (Tim’s younger brother) is the mystery dual nat call up. Color me excited even though it’s highly unlikely he’ll choose the US at this point. Germany appeared unhappy with his renewed interest in the US though.
 

67YAZ

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Hell yeah! Let’s go, Gaga!!!

I really appreciate that Gregg didn’t add Slonina to today’s roster to try to woo him.
 
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