USMNT: Hold My Beer
- Thread starter Titans Bastard
- Start date
Thoughts about the world cup draw on Friday?
It looks like the US is currently ranked 13th and Mexico is 12th in the rankings from early February.
It seems likely that tonight's results could be the deciding factor whether the US or Mexico end up in Pot 2.
It looks like the US is currently ranked 13th and Mexico is 12th in the rankings from early February.
It seems likely that tonight's results could be the deciding factor whether the US or Mexico end up in Pot 2.
There are models out there try to predict the updating rankings, and they’re solidly putting the US in the 11-14 range. Remember that Italy is ranked ahead of the US and will not be in Qatar, so it’s really the 10-13 range. Then Qatar is behind the US in the rankings and will by Pot 1 Group A, so we need to be top 15. There is a sizable gap down to Uruguay (#16) who have won their two games since the last ranking. Croatia is pretty far behind at 15 too. The US is closer to Portugal (8) than Croatia.
In short, the US should remain in Pot 2 but there is a small chance of dropping to Pot 3.
Don't we need to be top 16? Because Pot 1 will be Qatar + 1-7, but Italy is 6, so it's really 1-8. So Pot 2 will be the teams ranked 9-16, right?
Edit or are you saying the US needs to be top 15 excluding Italy? If so then yes I agree
Here's the summary from The Athletic. I think the "one representative per continent" rule only impacts the final groupings, not the initial four pots?
The 32 participating nations are grouped into four different pots for the draw. Pot 1 will include host Qatar and the seven-highest ranked nations in the FIFA world rankings, which will be updated on Thursday. Pot 2 will include the next eight teams in the rankings, and so on and so forth through Pot 4. Any country that qualifies for the tournament through a playoff final after the draw takes place will automatically be placed in Pot 4.
Additionally, each of the eight groups can only include one representative per continent — except for Europe. Up to two teams in each group can be from Europe, which supplies 13 of the 32 total competitors in the tournament.
The U.S.’s potential group scenarios in Qatar became a bit more clear after Tuesday’s qualifiers in Europe. Portugal’s win over North Macedonia means they will slot into the final spot in Pot 1 for the draw.
That shut the door on the slim chance the U.S. had to move in with the top seeds.
The U.S. is likely to be in Pot 2 for the draw, unless they somehow see their massive goal differential closed by the Ticos. The team from CONCACAF that goes to the intercontinental playoff will be automatically slotted into Pot 4 for the draw. Canada can move into Pot 3 with a win at Panama in its final game on Wednesday.
The 32 participating nations are grouped into four different pots for the draw. Pot 1 will include host Qatar and the seven-highest ranked nations in the FIFA world rankings, which will be updated on Thursday. Pot 2 will include the next eight teams in the rankings, and so on and so forth through Pot 4. Any country that qualifies for the tournament through a playoff final after the draw takes place will automatically be placed in Pot 4.
Additionally, each of the eight groups can only include one representative per continent — except for Europe. Up to two teams in each group can be from Europe, which supplies 13 of the 32 total competitors in the tournament.
The U.S.’s potential group scenarios in Qatar became a bit more clear after Tuesday’s qualifiers in Europe. Portugal’s win over North Macedonia means they will slot into the final spot in Pot 1 for the draw.
That shut the door on the slim chance the U.S. had to move in with the top seeds.
The U.S. is likely to be in Pot 2 for the draw, unless they somehow see their massive goal differential closed by the Ticos. The team from CONCACAF that goes to the intercontinental playoff will be automatically slotted into Pot 4 for the draw. Canada can move into Pot 3 with a win at Panama in its final game on Wednesday.
It means the USA, Mexico and Canada can't be drawn into a group with each other at the tournament. It has nothing to do with the pots to which each team is assigned for the draw itself. (I think there's some confusion about "groups" vs. "pots".)
Right.
The draw goes one group at a time, right?
So Group A will be Qatar, then a team each from Pots 2, 3, and 4.
Then Group B will be a draw from each Pot 1-4
Etc all the way through Group H?
Aside from drawing Qatar as their Pot 1 team, who should the US be rooting for as their Pot 1 team? How would folks here rank them?
And what about Pot 3? Who do we want to avoid?
Thanks!
IIRC - and my memory is admittedly somewhat hazy about this - recent draws have been one pot at a time, rather than one group at a time. A team gets pulled from the pot, and then balls with all of the groups that it could be drawn into (determined with the help of a computer) are swirled together and one is chosen, and then its position within that group is determined (whether it's team 1, 2, 3 or 4 for scheduling purposes). So for example, when the USA gets pulled from Pot 2, it will be eligible for placement in every group not containing Mexico or Canada or the Costa Rica v New Zealand winner - and possibly one or two other groups it could be drawn into that would make it impossible for another team like Mexico to be drawn into, perhaps because the only group left into which it could be drawn has Canada. Then once the group is confirmed, it's position within the group will be determined, so we'll immediately know where it's playing on which dates. Does that make sense?
This summary is helpful:
The draw will start with Pot 1 followed by Pot 2, Pot 3 and finally Pot 4. Qatar is automatically placed in Group A, Position 1. When a team from Pot 2, 3 or 4 is drawn, a ball from the group position pot is also drawn. This continues until there are no teams left.
There are a few constraints to the draw. No confederation (geographic region) can have more than one team per group except for UEFA (Europe), which must have at least one but no more than two teams per group. If a non-European team is drawn into a group that already has a team from its region, it will be placed into the next viable group; it’s the same for a European team drawn into a group that already has two UEFA teams in it.
There will be two placeholders for which the region is not yet known, for the intercontinental playoffs. In these cases, the draw will prevent the placeholder from being placed into a group with either of the potential confederations involved. For example, if the placeholder for the playoff between Asia and South America is drawn into a group that already includes a team from either confederation, it will be placed into a different group.
IMO, the best Pot 1 draw after Qatar should be Belgium, who have a lot of talented players that are past their primes at this point. They never lived up to their Golden Generation potential and now they're not on the same level anymore, even if their FIFA coefficient remains high. After that its basically pick your poison. This assumes that Denmark (currently 9th) don't get into Pot 1 in the final rankings. If they somehow did, they would be the easy choice after Qatar.
For Pot 3 Iran stands out as the weakest link. Japan, South Korea, Morocco, and Poland would be pretty good draws too. Teams we want to avoid are Uruguay (if they end up in that pot), Serbia, and Senegal.
Here’s a draw simulator if anyone wants to look at some “realistic” groups. Obviously a very small chance of really getting any specific configuration but it’s applying all of the rules and exclusions correctly.
Thanks for this. My quick takeaway from running a bunch of draws is that you really want to be in Group A. Not that Qatar is a pushover (especially given a home-nation advantage), but Pot 3 has a lot of really strong sides. If all the key players stay healthy, there should be a lot of really competitive groups this go round.
The bolded seems pretty unlikely due to the fact the games will be played in the middle of most of the world’s regular season. Seems like there could be a ton of variation in group strength depending on who is injured.
I tend to agree, although Qatar worries me a bit. They have wildcard energy. As always, I'm hoping for a group with England who (however difficult they are as a matchup) I'd relish the chance to play and defeat.
Tangent but the person who coded that draw simulator has a very interesting 64-team World Cup format / simulator there too. They propose having a two-stage World Cup split into Winter and Summer tournaments. First tourney in the winter qualifies 32 of the 64 to the main summer event. I don't hate that, and it might help balance the magic of the every-4-year, 32-team WC with FIFA's desire to expand the field and the frequency.
NBC Sports said Canada was in Pot 4 regardless.
Who are the seeded teams for the 2022 World Cup draw? (nbcsports.com)
It took a few tries but I got us into Group A: Qatar, US, Senegal, Poland
Seemed to get in a group with Serbia A LOT.
My overall take is that the draw format change that started in 2018 is very helpful to the US, as we are likely to remain a reliably Pot 2 side due to our region/schedule.
There is very little chance of drawing a group as difficult as our groups in 2002, 2006, or 2014. The pot 3 teams aren't pushovers but we'd only be a clear underdog against Serbia or Senegal IMO.
Looking at this some more, what's tough is that you can't have more than two UEFA sides in any group and each group has to have at least one.
The killer draw then is going to be getting matched with Brazil or Argentina out of Pot 1, because it means that we then have to get either Serbia, Poland, or the pot 4 UEFA qualifier (Scotland/Wales). Scotland or Wales wouldn't be bad but Serbia (especially) or Poland combined with Brazil/Argentina and its a tough group.
So order of preference for Pot 1 is probably something like:
Qatar (best)
Belgium
Portugal
Spain
England
France
Argentina
Brazil (worst)
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Yep, this is how it's going to work. You get a number after you get your group placement but the number is only to decide the schedule.
You empty each pot and then move on to the next.
Pot 1 is easy. Qatar is A1. The other 7 will be drawn and there are no limitations on where they can be placed. So, the second team drawn will be group B. Let's say it's Belgium. Now, a number will be drawn 1-4. Let's say it's 3. Belgium is now B3, which means they play B4 in the first matchday and then B1 and B2.
Pot 2 also should be pretty clear sailing. You can have 2 UEFA teams in one group so there should be no limit on which groups the teams pulled from Pot 2 can go to. USA will go in whatever group it gets pulled for because there is no chance that there will be another CONCACAF team the groups at the time the USA ball is pulled. I'm pretty sure the only limit on Pot 2 is that Uruguay cannot go into Argentina's group [Edit -- or Brazil's, duh]. So, if Argentina is in group D and Uruguay were to get pulled fourth from Pot 2 they would end up going to group E and the next team pulled would go to D, I believe. Or perhaps the way the pots work is that Uruguay cannot be pulled because the computer withholds their ball when it comes time to pull the fourth spot. Whatever. Either way, the first two pots are easy.
By the time you get to Pot 3 it gets complicated. There are several teams in that Pot that will not be able to go into certain groups.
And then much of Pot 4 will be pre-decided. It will barely be a draw at all. The biggest limitation will be on the spot for the winner of the AFC and Peru inter-confederation playoff. That team has to go into one of the four groups that does not have an AFC team and in one of the four groups that does not have a CONMEBOL team. There may not even be such a group, although it's likely that there will be one or two. The Wales/Scotland/Ukraine spot will have to go into one of the four groups that does not have two UEFA teams. The two Pot 4 Africa teams cannot go into one of the three groups that already has an Africa team. Assuming the USA qualifies directly tonight, the OFC/Costa Rica winner cannot be placed in the group that already has the USA or Mexico in it. Nor can Canada.
I'd have play around with the simulator but after playing around with it on paper for a little bit, but I think that once we know who the third team in the U.S.A.'s group is the more we will know about Pot 4. I'm pretty sure that the way it works out is that if neither of the two Pot 3 Africa teams end up in the U.S.A.'s group, then it's highly likely that the fourth team will be Tunisia, Ghana or Cameroon. But if the U.S.A. ends up with Senegal or Morocco as the third team in its group then I think some difficult groups are likely -- Peru or Wales. Ecuador is also a possibility.
It's less than that. Uruguay cannot be drawn into either Argentina's or Brazil's group, so the US has a 1 in 7 chance of drawing Brazil and Argentina. By my math, it's a 14.3% chance we draw Brazil and Argentina, but a 12.0% chance we draw Qatar and every other pot 1 team.
I don't think they'll automatically do Pot 1, then Pot 2, then Pot 3, then Pot 4 - I think in the past they may have done Pot 1, then Pot 4, then Pot 3, then Pot 2, mainly because it's easier that way to avoid problems regarding who goes in which group. But FWIW, here's The Guardian's live blog of the 2018 draw, if you want to see how this all played out last time:
https://www.theguardian.com/football/live/2017/dec/01/world-cup-2018-draw-russia-live
(I think they did draw the pots in 1-2-3-4 order that time.)
I'm seeing the opposite: "Pot 1 will feature host Qatar and the seven highest-ranked qualified teams, going down to Pot 4 made up of the bottom-ranked qualifiers plus three placeholders representing the two winners of the intercontinental playoffs and the remaining UEFA playoff winner. A Canada win will put the team in Pot 3."
Link to the sportsnet article is not working. Here's another one:
"Winning again Panama could also move Canada from the fourth pot to the third pot in Friday’s World Cup draw, which could land the country in an easier group in Qatar. FIFA will use new rankings, to be released Thursday, to determine the four pots teams will be drawn out of. Canada currently sits at No. 33 on FIFA’s list, but could jump into the top 30 with a victory over Panama."
https://www.thestar.com/sports/soccer/2022/03/29/canada-still-has-plenty-to-play-for-in-final-mens-qualifying-match-against-panama.html
It's FIFA so who knows, but here is what they say about it in the official release about draw procedure: "The draw will start with Pot 1 and end with Pot 4. Each pot will be completely emptied before moving on to the subsequent one. As per the standard draw procedure, a ball from a team pot will be drawn, followed by a ball from one of the group pots, thus determining the position in which the team will play."
https://www.fifa.com/tournaments/mens/worldcup/qatar2022/media-releases/procedures-for-the-final-draw-for-the-fifa-world-cup-qatar-2022-tm-released
One other interesting feature about this World Cup is that you will not know on draw day which team is playing where. You will know the matchups. For example, you know that E1 will play E2 on the third match day but you will not know which of the four stadiums hosting games that day will have that game. It could be any of the four. The only matchup right now that is fully set is Qatar will play A2 on the first match day in Al Bayt. A3 v. A4, B1 v. B2, and B3 v. B4 could be in any of the other three stadiums.
It is not clear when FIFA will announce this information. Their last release seemed to indicated they were reserving the right to be flexible but also the next ticket sale phase starts on April 5, so I think they would want fans to know.
Meanwhile, Costa Rica is playing a B team because of the yellow cards.
View: https://twitter.com/fedefutbolcrc/status/1509320585981177859/photo/1
View: https://twitter.com/fedefutbolcrc/status/1509320585981177859/photo/1
Hoping to see Gio for 45 cuz he is oh so fun to watch. Musah has looked pretty gassed in both games so I imagine he will be subbed off for LDLT at some point. Happy to see that Gregg is going with a strong lineup though.
While it is a B team of sorts for CR I’m not expecting them to roll over here. They take a lot of pride in their undefeated home qualifier record against the US and most of these guys are fighting for a spot on the playoff/WC roster.
While it is a B team of sorts for CR I’m not expecting them to roll over here. They take a lot of pride in their undefeated home qualifier record against the US and most of these guys are fighting for a spot on the playoff/WC roster.
I just want this damned game over with. I truly love the final round of CONCACAF qualification and this is the end of an era. Many of the things that people hate about this round I kind of love and view them as features not bugs. Some of the greatest moments in sports that I can remember are moments from CONCACAF qualification. I love the format and its rhythms. I thought the move to 8 teams would diminish the event just a little bit but it really didn't.
So I'm kind of sad that I'm not really looking forward to the final installment of this great sporting tournament as we know it. But I just want it to be over. No drama. A reasonable score line. Everyone stay upright and healthy. I believe that CONCACAF has been the only federation to have to play three games for most of their matchdays. CONMEBOL had to do it twice I think, and I don't think anyone else had to do it at all. But CONCACAF did it four times. It has been an absolute grind with the 2020 failure hanging heavily in the air for more than four years now.
Just get the 90 done with and get out of Dodge.
So I'm kind of sad that I'm not really looking forward to the final installment of this great sporting tournament as we know it. But I just want it to be over. No drama. A reasonable score line. Everyone stay upright and healthy. I believe that CONCACAF has been the only federation to have to play three games for most of their matchdays. CONMEBOL had to do it twice I think, and I don't think anyone else had to do it at all. But CONCACAF did it four times. It has been an absolute grind with the 2020 failure hanging heavily in the air for more than four years now.
Just get the 90 done with and get out of Dodge.
I get playing not to lose by 6, but they're letting Costa Rica have too much time and space in the attacking midfield.
Acosta as an 8 sucks. Hopefully Gregg will finally get it eventually. Hoping for LDLT and Reyna to come in.
Wouldn’t mind seeing if LDLT can provide some midfield impetus in a tougher situation than the ones we’ve put him in so far.
Agreed 100%. Acosta is doing nothing for the US right now. The two guys who seem to be lock pickers on the bench are Reyna and Luca. Bring them both and see what they can do.
Also feels like there's a lot of tired legs out there. It's great going for it with the A lineup, but this is the third game in six days for most of these guys, and it shows. Except for Jedi, who might actually be fucking around with the Force.
Wouldn’t mind getting Ferreira in there also soonish. Just get our slickest guys out there and see if they can cook something up.