UFC 2020

Marciano490

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I think Jones crushes Stipe, but would have trouble with Ngannou unless he’s suddenly able to add 30 pounds of muscle in his mid 30s. But he could only do that with drugs and we all know Jones is straight edge.
 

djbayko

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More on Jones:

https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2021/9/29/22699741/its-the-fight-business-dana-white-new-details-jon-jones-arrest-possible-sanctions-ufc-mma-news

Pretty clear that Dana isn't going to sanction him. Letting the legal process play out when the fiancé wouldn't cooperate with police says enough.

Based on my previous post, this is what I think might happen: Dana leverages this situation to get Jones to fight Stipe at a number that Dana likes.

Why? I think Dana wants a fight where Jones has the best chance to get his ass kicked. That's what people will pay to see and Dana won't have to wrap a belt around his waist if Jones wins. Good guy Stipe fighting an abuser like Jones is probably the best matchup to get that outcome.

Tawdry and gross? Yup.
IMO, Dana will have him fight, but not because he has some precognition of the outcome. It's because the UFC is still in a place where it doesn't have to worry about the PR fallout of ignoring off field issues. The NFL wishes it were still there.
 

EvilEmpire

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I think Jones crushes Stipe, but would have trouble with Ngannou unless he’s suddenly able to add 30 pounds of muscle in his mid 30s. But he could only do that with drugs and we all know Jones is straight edge.
Even at HW, I think Jones will be too fast and move too well for Ngannou. Of course Ngannou could catch him with a shot and put his lights outs, but I don't think that is the most likely outcome. Ngannou is physically a monster, but is still relatively inexperienced and (I think) still not terribly well rounded for a champion. I think Stipe can take whatever power Jones throws his way, can move, and has enough skill and experience to get his hands on Jones and grind him down.

Ngannou has a better chance of a highlight reel, one punch KO. Stipe has a better chance of wearing him down and breaking him.

IMO, Dana will have him fight, but not because he has some precognition of the outcome.
I don't know about precognition of the outcome, but I don't think Dana ever wants to depend on Jones as a champion again and that Stipe provides the best chance to prevent that while the UFC still makes bank.
 

Marciano490

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I think Stipe’s chin isn’t what it was from the first Francis fight. Agreed that version of him would’ve been tough for Jones. Good point though on their respective cardios. Jones has faded bad his last few fights.

As for Ngannou, I think this is one of the differences between boxing and ufc for heavyweights. In boxing, you can take a bigger dude’s non clean shots because the gloves are bigger and softer and because your legs aren’t in jeopardy. I used to spar Kevin McBride before he fought Tyson and I could survive as long as I made sure to block or slip everything. Those same punches I took off the gloves to limited damage in boxing, would’ve gotten through more easily and cumulatively and painfully in UFC. Jones won’t have the power to keep Francis away, and eventually Francis will crowd him and hurt him, even if his accuracy is less than 100%.
 

luckiestman

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Jones has looked like shit lately(for him), I had him losing to Reyes and about even with Thiago. He might not have been able to get up for those fights, though. Whatever “A” game he has left, he would bring it for Francis.
 

EvilEmpire

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I think Stipe’s chin isn’t what it was from the first Francis fight.
That sounds right to me. Question for you though: how much power do you think Jones would bring into the fight? Will putting on more weight and muscle give Jones anything close to what Ngannou can dish out? I agree that Stipe can't handle Francis' power. But I have no idea how Jones' power will scale moving up a weight class. I'd love to hear your assessment of what that might look like.

Jones won’t have the power to keep Francis away, and eventually Francis will crowd him and hurt him, even if his accuracy is less than 100%.
Sure, that could happen. But I think if Francis doesn't get him quick, Jones will use better mobility to leg kick the shit out of Ngannou early and often, and Ngannou's mobility will diminish to the point where he will have a tough time crowding Jones while he gets picked apart. But maybe Francis can counter that. I don't know.

https://7news.com.au/sport/ufc/beaten-ufc-fighter-dominick-reyes-shows-off-nasty-toll-of-jon-jones-leg-kicks-c-699177

44710
 

Myt1

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That sounds right to me. Question for you though: how much power do you think Jones would bring into the fight? Will putting on more weight and muscle give Jones anything close to what Ngannou can dish out? I agree that Stipe can't handle Francis' power. But I have no idea how Jones' power will scale moving up a weight class. I'd love to hear your assessment of what that might look like.



Sure, that could happen. But I think if Francis doesn't get him quick, Jones will use better mobility to leg kick the shit out of Ngannou early and often, and Ngannou's mobility will diminish to the point where he will have a tough time crowding Jones while he gets picked apart. But maybe Francis can counter that. I don't know.

https://7news.com.au/sport/ufc/beaten-ufc-fighter-dominick-reyes-shows-off-nasty-toll-of-jon-jones-leg-kicks-c-699177

View attachment 44710
I’m here as well. Jones’s leg kicks and elbows would worry me more than his punching power at heavyweight. Most heavyweights also have less experience/aptitude in checking the former.
 

EvilEmpire

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Adesanya breaks down the upcoming Costa vs. Vettori fight. Pretty damn funny. Solid analysis too. The whole thing is worth a watch. I think the broadcast booth might be in his future when his fighting days are done.

https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2021/10/israel-adesanya-breakdown-analysis-opinion-paulo-costa-vs-marvin-vettori-ufc-fight-night-196



“Vettori’s biggest weapon in this fight is his chin,” Adesanya said. “That block head – that f*cking LEGO block head. That’s his biggest weapon in this fight because he can take Costa to deep water by taking punishment – some rope-a-dope sh*t without the rope-a-dope, just walking forward and taking punishment. … He can take a lot of punishment, I’ll give him that."

“Costa’s path to victory in this fight? Get him out early. I feel like, do what you did that got you to the dance, that got you this far, because you’re not fighting me, you’re fighting Vettori and he’s got sh*t footwork, even worse than you."
 

djbayko

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Battle of the knuckleheads is on this afternoon. There was a lot of drama about weight cut this week leading up to the fight. They were supposed to fight at 185. Costa couldn't make it and got Vettori to agree to 195 catchweight. Then he forced Vettori to agree to 205. I can't believe someone has made me sympathize with Marvin Vettori.

 

EvilEmpire

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Battle of the knuckleheads is exactly right. I'm not sure what's up with Costa, but between this non-weight cutting nonsense and the "bottle of wine" the night before the Adesanya fight bullshit, I'm not a fan. I don't care much for Marvin either, but he's willing to scrap even with all the bullshit, so I'm rooting for him.

I think Costa knows Vettori would grind him down if his gas tank was compromised by a tough weight cut. It's bullshit gamesmanship.
 

djbayko

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Battle of the knuckleheads is exactly right. I'm not sure what's up with Costa, but between this non-weight cutting nonsense and the "bottle of wine" the night before the Adesanya fight bullshit, I'm not a fan. I don't care much for Marvin either, but he's willing to scrap even with all the bullshit, so I'm rooting for him.

I think Costa knows Vettori would grind him down if his gas tank was compromised by a tough weight cut. It's bullshit gamesmanship.
My thoughts exactly, and it is bullshit. Costa looks absolutely HUGE. But Marvin is looking great so far.
 

EvilEmpire

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I think Marvin deserved to win the fight; the combinations and volume overall were great. But I do think body work, especially body kicks, don't get the credit from the judges they deserve sometimes. I'm good with it today though. Costa really pulled some bullshit, almost certainly planned and intentional.
 

djbayko

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I had it exactly like the judges. 48-47 Vettori minus Costa’e eye poke point.
The point may have been harsh but karma is a bitch.
I didn't watch this entire event but did catch a little of a few fights here and there. There was at least one additional uncharacteristically quick point deduction earlier, for another eye poke, and from a different ref too.

Could just be a fluke. But count me in the crowd who would love it if they actually started penalizing fighters without giving them 3 freebies first. What's the point of 2 or 3 warnings? The damage is already done. Are you going to finally penalize them in the 6th round or something? Yes, point deductions are harsh. So don't fucking foul. Yes, accidents happen. And that's why you should get a warning, as long as the ref doesn't believe it was intentional.
 

Eagle3

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I read that Costa weighed 220 at fight time. Vettori 208. I give him a lot of credit for how he handled everything before, during, and after the fight.

I dont get the whole weight cut thing in both boxing and MMA.
I should say, I completely get why fighters do it, but I dont understand why its allowed given how dangerous it can be, not to mention how it can lead to big fight time weight differences like the one last night.

Fight weights should be based on the fighters natural weight when they step in the ring/cage, not a deflated weight from the day before.
I get that a dehydrated fighter is really dangerous medically, but that's a by-product of the weight cut. Dont allow it. Have 2 weigh ins where they have to be at or under the limit, one a couple of days before the fight and one just before the fight. If there is any sign of abnormal dehydration during their pre fight physical they fail the physical and fight is off.
Why wouldnt that work?

Note, to make it work in MMA they would have to add a cruiserweight division at around 230, and maybe a super heavyweight over 265
 

djbayko

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I read that Costa weighed 220 at fight time. Vettori 208. I give him a lot of credit for how he handled everything before, during, and after the fight.

I dont get the whole weight cut thing in both boxing and MMA.
I should say, I completely get why fighters do it, but I dont understand why its allowed given how dangerous it can be, not to mention how it can lead to big fight time weight differences like the one last night.

Fight weights should be based on the fighters natural weight when they step in the ring/cage, not a deflated weight from the day before.
I get that a dehydrated fighter is really dangerous medically, but that's a by-product of the weight cut. Dont allow it. Have 2 weigh ins where they have to be at or under the limit, one a couple of days before the fight and one just before the fight. If there is any sign of abnormal dehydration during their pre fight physical they fail the physical and fight is off.
Why wouldnt that work?

Note, to make it work in MMA they would have to add a cruiserweight division at around 230, and maybe a super heavyweight over 265
I think the only reason it’s still allowed in today’s safety conscious society is because of how difficult / expensive it would be to enforce not weight cutting. Not to say it’s impossible, and you pointed out just one way it could be achieved.. There are theoretical ways to do it. And I hope that they figure it out eventually. Not just because of safety but because fights are much better when they’re near natural / walk around weight.
 

djbayko

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UFC 268 today. Gaethje / Chandler, as the first fight on the main card is an eye opener. I guess they are both coming off of Round 2 losses, but one was against Khabib (even if he did get embarrassed on the ground) and they're ranked #2 and 4, respectively.

46194
 

djbayko

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Sorry you don't get points in my book for being tough when you're stupidly just leaving your head out there unexposed like a punching bag. That's just being dumb.
 

Myt1

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Sorry you don't get points in my book for being tough when you're stupidly just leaving your head out there unexposed like a punching bag.
Agreed. If he’s trying to sucker him into a counter, he actually has to counter. :)
 

luckiestman

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This calf kick shit, I don’t even think spectators comprehend the damage. I got heel kicked to the calf a couple weeks ago in grappling. Some big mofo that you guys probably know if you went to Sityodtong as I think he taught there. He was trying to sweep me whatever, point is he fucking cracked me hard with his heel. One kick. I kept rolling so you can keep going with one but I was limping during my dog walks for a week and my calf swelled up so much it was surprising. Again, one kick. I have taken a lot of “accidental” elbows to the face and nothing except a liver shot from a left hook felt this damaging right away. Chandler probably won’t walk right for a month at a minimum.
 

djbayko

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This calf kick shit, I don’t even think spectators comprehend the damage. I got heel kicked to the calf a couple weeks ago in grappling. Some big mofo that you guys probably know if you went to Sityodtong as I think he taught there. He was trying to sweep me whatever, point is he fucking cracked me hard with his heel. One kick. I kept rolling so you can keep going with one but I was limping during my dog walks for a week and my calf swelled up so much it was surprising. Again, one kick. I have taken a lot of “accidental” elbows to the face and nothing except a liver shot from a left hook felt this damaging right away. Chandler probably won’t walk right for a month at a minimum.
I mean, I know that it does terrible damage, but that's just from watching a lot of UFC. I think you're right though. It doesn't really *look* like they're hitting it very hard, and I don't think the average person sees that as an area of the body which can have serious pain inflicted upon it.

I honestly don't know why it isn't a primary weapon of almost every fighter's arsenal, no matter what your specialty is. The lead leg is there for the taking if you can keep your opponent guessing with your attack vectors (and whiffing doesn't usually put you in a bad spot).
 

Marciano490

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I mean, I know that it does terrible damage, but that's just from watching a lot of UFC. I think you're right though. It doesn't really *look* like they're hitting it very hard, and I don't think the average person sees that as an area of the body which can have serious pain inflicted upon it.

I honestly don't know why it isn't a primary weapon of almost every fighter's arsenal, no matter what your specialty is. The lead leg is there for the taking if you can keep your opponent guessing with your attack vectors.
It hurts to throw I think. I tried a couple into a heavy bag once and it didn’t feel good.