They definitely went with the “better to be early than late” approach to trading Hill. Will be interesting to see how they navigate these next few seasons. Obviously PM will always give them a chance, but Reid won’t be there forever and they’ll need to retool on the fly to stay elite. Aside from the Pats and maybe Peyton’s Colts, no team has been able to do that without a few down seasons in between runs.
Tyreek Hill Traded to Miami
- Thread starter tims4wins
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Incidentally, look at this brutal schedule for KC:
Home: Broncos, Raiders, Chargers, Jaguars, Titans, Rams, Seahawks, Bills
Away: Broncos, Raiders, Chargers, Texans, Colts, 49ers, Cardinals, Bengals, Buccaneers
The big question from Miami's perspective is for how long. Hill is remarkable but does he maintain his exceptional speed and durability for one more year or four.
Of course. From what I’ve seen, I believe most of Hill’s guaranteed money is in the first three years of his deal, which would be his age 28, 29, and 30 seasons. Those three years also happen to align with the three years remaining on Tua’s rookie deal.
There’s certainly always a chance that the wheels fall off of Hill far faster than someone like Davante Adams, but Miami is gambling he has a few more peak years left in those legs.
How’s Tua’s deep ball. I thought his accuracy on long through wasn’t great and he doesn’t throw deep often at all. Hill is versatile, especially in a creative offense, but it seems like some of his talents will be wasted in Miami.
KC stepped in cap shit with the deals for Frank Clark and Orlando Brown. They have 100m in cap space tied up in four players and that piper will get paid eventually.
I think this is a good move for them given those circumstances but they're definitely taking a step back next year. I would not be surprised if they finished 3rd in the AFC West.
I think this is a good move for them given those circumstances but they're definitely taking a step back next year. I would not be surprised if they finished 3rd in the AFC West.
I think Mahomes still has plenty to work with, and that's a good set of picks to add real value to the team.
Tua isn’t Mahomes, obviously. But I think people sleep on his ability to push the ball.
He was at 11.2 and 11.3 Y/A in his sophomore and junior seasons at Alabama and that dropped to 6.2 and 6.5 Y/A in the NFL.
Some of that is an obvious adjustment to the NFL game, but some of that is also playing with a really poor supporting cast, a really, really bad offensive line, a really bad running game, and really bad offensive coaching.
This offseason was about eliminating most of those negatives and trying to turn them into positives. Miami’s team speed is now absolutely insane and they’re going to stress teams at all levels of the field.
I'm envisioning Waddle/Hill running crossers together and teams losing their minds.
Warren Sharp isn't everyone's cup of tea, but this would make me giddy if I were a Phins fan:
View: https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1506703530232586250
View: https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1506703530232586250
Tyreek Hill was a 5th round pick, right? 5 seasons of elite WR play, a Super Bowl, and then you turn him into a 1st, a 2nd, 2 4th round picks, and a 6th rounder is pretty great value. Mahomes turns 27 in September, still a lot of time for him to get even better. 2 1st rounders and 2 second rounders this year, they can get some good WR talent.
Yup. They were going to have to turn over the skill position talent eventually anyways. They've just accelerated that plan with this trade. Kelce turns 33 in October and has had a lot of usage the past several years.
Drafting guys who slip to later rounds after choking their pregnant girlfriends is the new market inefficiency! But hey, it’s a dark world and the Chiefs won the hell out of that whole play, so no comeuppance had, no lessons learned.
Always always always check Warren Sharp's work.
Waddle was 105th in the NFL in YAC/R.
Among players with 2 or more catches, he was 275th out of 464. 195 out of 299 among players with 10+ catches. 146 out of 224 among players with 20+ catches.
As a very side note, Ross’s lawyers must be smiling a bit. The Dolphins’ offseason looks a little more consistent with a total overhaul, especially with the offensive changes, as against Flores’ (still credible and possibly viable) allegations.
Or you could say he shitcanned a Black
coach he paid to lose games and gave nearly $125M to a serial abuser. Potato potahto…
coach he paid to lose games and gave nearly $125M to a serial abuser. Potato potahto…
That’s definitely some hyperbole on Sharp’s part, but the potential is there. Waddle averaged 12.2 and 10.1 YAC at Alabama his sophomore and junior years.
In a scheme that will be built around getting guys YAC opportunities, it isn’t hard to see Waddle becoming one the better YAC guys in the league, but he isn’t there today.
Edit: also Waddle’s year last year is one of the reasons I’m super bullish on him. He was basically used as a possession receiver last year, in part because they couldn’t block for longer than 1.5 seconds. They used a Ferrari to make trips to soccer practice. Mike McDaniel is going to take the Ferrari to the Autobahn.
I think that it's bonkers to spend 1/7 of the cap on a WR, even if you didn't have to trade a bunch of picks for him (nevermind the odious past). Hurts the Pats chances next year or two somewhat, but relegates Miami to non factor over the next decade or so imo, which is good news for us.
Why did KC let Hill pick the team as-between NYJ and MIA? I don’t see any indication he had a no-trade clause.
And SF was 8th in YAC last year. And their success can be attributed to Kittle and Deebo more than any coaching.
https://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=231
In college, Tua was throwing to Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Waddle, Henry Ruggs & Devonta Smith in both '18 & '19. In '18 he also had Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris, Najee Harris & Irv Smith, & in '19 he had Najee of those. Against college defenses.
Using those gigantic windows & talent mismatches to project things into his 3rd NFL season is kind of a reach. But he's in a great spot to succeed, & if his #s do not improve significantly it will be super yikes.
It would have been the Jetsiest thing ever to trade a massive haul of picks for Hill and then have him hold out and refuse to show up to camp.
I assume both of the deals were contingent on Hill signing the extension.
So it becomes a pseudo no-trade, if Hill says, I’ll sign with Miami but not with New York, and that causes the Jets to rescind their offer.
I think the idea is that there will be at least one top-15 QB on the move this time next year, and Miami’s two 1sts could form the centerpiece of a trade package.
It’s unlikely that Miami pushed its chips to the center of the table planning to hand the keys to a rookie in 2023 if Tua disappoints in 2022.
Yes. Also, Tyreek Hill and Miami's nightlife seems like a recipe for disaster.
A strike against the "cap isn't real" folks for sure on this. With that said, it's kind of insane that the Chiefs somehow escaped any real negative consequences for Hill's allegations, got prime performance years supporting an offensive juggernaut, then got real draft compensation on the trade for him as he got more expensive and older (only 28 still of course). That's just impressive
Definitely makes Miami scarier in the short term, and I don't think this is as bad for Miami as others do. Makes a ton of sense for KC, they need as much cost controlled talent as they can get with that Mahomes contract and their stars and scrubs esque strategy, - they're a lot less scary on offense without Hill demanding double coverage, threatening 50+ yard receptions, and bailing out some of the bad throws Mahomes can make, but I also don't know how long such a speed focused WR is going to maintain that edge. So much of what makes Tyreek terrifying from an opposing player's perspective is that sight of him just getting huge separation from a DB at any moment - those rare jets. Miami's big issue is QB which is fair, but they had either struck out on acquiring a better QB or resigned themselves to this not being the year to do so (giving up this draft capital for a player like Jimmy G or Baker seems like it'd be a worse move and maybe a bit presumptive). A player like Hill both helps cover up some less than precise QB play and also makes it a lot easier for other targets to find spots to succeed...which should make Tua's life easier. I think it is banking a lot on Tua as if he bombs, they probably do go to the draft to fix it and waste a lot of this investment or use next year's pick to try and snag a starter caliber QB from somewhere, but I've seen worse plans for sure.
I can see the argument that KC should have held as Mahomes also has a window and the offense is much less scary without Hill, but truly elite QBs can really drag an offense far even without an abundance of skill position players around them. KC had spent really aggressively for years at this point and this was probably the best way to get out of that jail and get compensation for it.
I do find it kind of interesting Miami went for a big GFIN move with Buffalo loading up and New England still being very competitive - guessing Grier and Ross are rather motivated to make their decision on Flores look like the right one.
Definitely makes Miami scarier in the short term, and I don't think this is as bad for Miami as others do. Makes a ton of sense for KC, they need as much cost controlled talent as they can get with that Mahomes contract and their stars and scrubs esque strategy, - they're a lot less scary on offense without Hill demanding double coverage, threatening 50+ yard receptions, and bailing out some of the bad throws Mahomes can make, but I also don't know how long such a speed focused WR is going to maintain that edge. So much of what makes Tyreek terrifying from an opposing player's perspective is that sight of him just getting huge separation from a DB at any moment - those rare jets. Miami's big issue is QB which is fair, but they had either struck out on acquiring a better QB or resigned themselves to this not being the year to do so (giving up this draft capital for a player like Jimmy G or Baker seems like it'd be a worse move and maybe a bit presumptive). A player like Hill both helps cover up some less than precise QB play and also makes it a lot easier for other targets to find spots to succeed...which should make Tua's life easier. I think it is banking a lot on Tua as if he bombs, they probably do go to the draft to fix it and waste a lot of this investment or use next year's pick to try and snag a starter caliber QB from somewhere, but I've seen worse plans for sure.
I can see the argument that KC should have held as Mahomes also has a window and the offense is much less scary without Hill, but truly elite QBs can really drag an offense far even without an abundance of skill position players around them. KC had spent really aggressively for years at this point and this was probably the best way to get out of that jail and get compensation for it.
I do find it kind of interesting Miami went for a big GFIN move with Buffalo loading up and New England still being very competitive - guessing Grier and Ross are rather motivated to make their decision on Flores look like the right one.
My thing is just that there's no way I'd give up this much in picks and money for a receiver when I don't even know if my QB can play. An All-Pro level receiver with a "bleh" QB is a huge waste of resources. If Tua is what I think he is, Tyreek makes that offense more dangerous, but not to the extent they are likely expecting with what they spent on him.
One thing I've seen some smart people say recently is that elite WRs might be the 2nd most valuable asset in football right now, because they are QB elevators.
For Hill... he was insanely good with Alex Smith, he was good in limited time with Matt Moore. Mahomes has been (as you'd expect) markedly better in games that Hill plays than in those he doesn't.
If you're the Dolphins, you may think that getting a Hill can elevate Tua, and not having to reset the QB position would be huge.
For Hill... he was insanely good with Alex Smith, he was good in limited time with Matt Moore. Mahomes has been (as you'd expect) markedly better in games that Hill plays than in those he doesn't.
If you're the Dolphins, you may think that getting a Hill can elevate Tua, and not having to reset the QB position would be huge.
Yeah, this is where I stand. It's a risk (so is everything, especially draft picks), but this seems like a really good one for Miami to take.
My main issue from the Dolphins perspective is my fundamental issue with trading significant draft capital in order to pay a player full market value, especially if you're not that player away from significant Super Bowl equity. I don't think it's a good use of assets.
It will be really fascinating to see how Rodgers/Adams & Mahomes/Hill do this season disentangled from each other.
I'm also interested, on a slightly lower level, by RW/Lockett going forward.
It will be really fascinating to see how Rodgers/Adams & Mahomes/Hill do this season disentangled from each other.
I'm also interested, on a slightly lower level, by RW/Lockett going forward.
I misremembered the details of his previous domestic abuse cases/allegations. Thought there was booze involved but a quick bit of google research seems to indicate that was not the case.
I fully recognize how stacked the talent surrounding Tua was, but you should also acknowledge the dearth of talent Tua was surrounded with in Miami.
For sure, this is Tua’s chance to show the world who he is as a QB.
Yea but that Miami booze served after midnight….
He had Waddle/Parker/Gesicki last year & Parker/Gesicki the year before.
Unpacking how much of the struggles were scheme/line/skill position talent/coaching & how much was Tua is way above my knowledge of the Dolphins.
I think in general it's a suboptimal, but fun, move (if you can disentangle the person from the player). He is a really enjoyable guy to watch play football & is a really disruptive force.
Hill doesn’t need the deep ball. He can take a 10 yard pass to the house on any given play.
thank u miami now i think its likey the AFC West is like this
1 LAC only thing that holds them back is their coach
2 Den the main reason denver is here is their 3 oddgames are the easyest Jets Car Balt
3 kc they were started to be exposed last season and denver wouild had swept them if not for a gorden fumble and a no-show on off at kc
4 vegas i am telling u mcd will want his own qb in 23 if vegas is in last
1 LAC only thing that holds them back is their coach
2 Den the main reason denver is here is their 3 oddgames are the easyest Jets Car Balt
3 kc they were started to be exposed last season and denver wouild had swept them if not for a gorden fumble and a no-show on off at kc
4 vegas i am telling u mcd will want his own qb in 23 if vegas is in last
I am not a fan of KC at all. 15 minutes on Chiefs Planet is all you need to know. With that being said, I hate when they make a smart deal, like the one they did today.
I just was reading an ESPN article that said Hill and Waddle were 9th and 10th in yac.
I remembered seeing these quotes, so I went looking myself…both are top 20 in raw yac and yac/rec among qualifying receivers on PFF as well as every other major site i found on my Google search.
I’m guessing the numbers quoted above include virtually every starting and third down back in the league, as well as quite a few backups, which I think is a bit disingenuous.
Other than that, thinking about the deal some more, I see the risk for Miami, but I also can’t help but think if I was a Chiefs fan, I’d rather have one more year with Hill than the five picks.
YAC per catch is not really capturing receiver skill very well since a lot of that has to do with the route, the quarterback, their teammates distracting the defense etc. It is very noisy.
I don't think that it's just Hill vs. the picks. It's also avoiding salary cap hell. Mahomes is 26. They probably want a bunch of bites at the apple, which is pretty hard to do with 30MM wide receivers on your team.