Tulo Traded to Toronto

MikeM

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After taking a hard second look at Tulo's contract/#'s this year (the latter which have gone up quite a bit since i last checked in May), and noticing that fairly weird drop in salary the final guaranteed season ($14m), i'm actually going to retract some on my above statement.  
 
What's left is better then the contract we just gave Hanley at market, and Tulo isn't being moved off SS.  I can see a little more logic on the Toronto side if they were projecting that the last 2 years of Reyes was going to look fairly ugly.
 

mwonow

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I think this is a great trade for the Jays. Reyes has no business playing SS in the ML - he can still hit, and run in the odd times when he isn't hurt, but he's done in the field.
 
This team is starting to remind me a lot of the old Sox - "maybe we can't pitch much, but we'll mash you to death!" Works fine until you run into teams with deep pitching and good defense, as those of us old enough to remember the Orioles with Palmer/Cuellar/McNally/etc. have seen...
 

Toe Nash

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FanSinceBoggs said:
Brutal trade for the Blue Jays.  It amazes me that the Blue Jays GM holds on to his job.
 
Both contracts are terrible, but Tulo's contract is for more years and money (around 50 million more).  Meanwhile, the Blue Jays give up a really good prospect in Hoffman.
 
The Rockies win this trade big time.  They pick up a young starter who has a high ceiling (Hoffman) while dumping Tulo's contract.  Sure, they have Reyes' contract to deal with, but it is more manageable.  I presume they could turn around and trade Reyes and money for a good prospect. 
 
What are the Blue Jays playing for anyway?  They aren't as good as the Yankees.  They are still competing for the second wild card, but they are one of several teams competing for that spot and this deal hurts the Blue Jays in the long run.  If they had to trade Hoffman, it makes more sense to keep Reyes (and save 50 million) while using Hoffman in a package for a SP.
I disagree with just about all of this.
1. Jays are only committed to Martin and Tulo long term. They have decisions to make on FAs but I don't think the contract impacts them much.
2. They have a better run differential than the Yankees, so they actually may be as good. If they can sneak into the playoffs they can make some noise.
3. They didn't give up any of their best young pitchers. We know what happens to prospects... A lot of them don't do anything.
4. They still could use pitching, sure, but mostly relief and maybe a back end starter. That can be found. Their offense is insane and this deal improved their defense too.
 

mwonow

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Toe Nash said:
I disagree with just about all of this.
1. Jays are only committed to Martin and Tulo long term. They have decisions to make on FAs but I don't think the contract impacts them much.
2. They have a better run differential than the Yankees, so they actually may be as good. If they can sneak into the playoffs they can make some noise.
3. They didn't give up any of their best young pitchers. We know what happens to prospects... A lot of them don't do anything.
4. They still could use pitching, sure, but mostly relief and maybe a back end starter. That can be found. Their offense is insane and this deal improved their defense too.
 
Definitely. Reyes is now a DH in an ex-SS's body
 

Snoop Soxy Dogg

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Toe Nash said:
I disagree with just about all of this.
1. Jays are only committed to Martin and Tulo long term. They have decisions to make on FAs but I don't think the contract impacts them much.
2. They have a better run differential than the Yankees, so they actually may be as good. If they can sneak into the playoffs they can make some noise.
3. They didn't give up any of their best young pitchers. We know what happens to prospects... A lot of them don't do anything.
4. They still could use pitching, sure, but mostly relief and maybe a back end starter. That can be found. Their offense is insane and this deal improved their defense too.
 
I understand they gave up Hoffman (#3 prospect in March, according to MLB.com) and Castro (#5, according to mlb.com).
 
Edit: conficting reports as to whether Hoffman is included.
 

LuckyBen

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Snoop Soxy Dogg said:
 
I understand they gave up Hoffman (#3 prospect in March, according to MLB.com) and Castro (#5, according to mlb.com).
 
Edit: conficting reports as to whether Hoffman is included.
Mlbtraderumors saying Castro, Hoffman, and Tinoco.
 

jon abbey

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Tulo has played 351 games in the last 3 1/2 seasons (his 27-30 seasons). Is he really a good bet to play more than 100 games per year from his age 31-35 seasons now that he is moving to the turf of Toronto? 
 
Still not a bad gamble, I guess, if Reyes really is that bad on D now. 
 

MakMan44

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https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/625992760445804545
 
mets are said to have no interest in bringing back jose reyes. diminished play & $56M thru '17 makes it a tough sell.
 

MakMan44

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hear 4th player going to colorado is rhp jesus tinoco. so it's tulo & hawkins for reyes, castro, hoffman & tinoco. #tulo
https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/625976220660989952
 

Toe Nash

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Snoop Soxy Dogg said:
 
I understand they gave up Hoffman (#3 prospect in March, according to MLB.com) and Castro (#5, according to mlb.com).
 
Edit: conficting reports as to whether Hoffman is included.
Yeah, but they held onto Norris (top 20 overall), Hutchison, Sanchez (both under 25 and already in the rotation) and don't forget about Stroman.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Toe Nash said:
I disagree with just about all of this.
1. Jays are only committed to Martin and Tulo long term. They have decisions to make on FAs but I don't think the contract impacts them much.
2. They have a better run differential than the Yankees, so they actually may be as good. If they can sneak into the playoffs they can make some noise.
3. They didn't give up any of their best young pitchers. We know what happens to prospects... A lot of them don't do anything.
4. They still could use pitching, sure, but mostly relief and maybe a back end starter. That can be found. Their offense is insane and this deal improved their defense too.
 
They also haven't been in the post-season since 1993. At some point they have to cash in their chips and go for it. 
 
Edit: And AA and Gibbons are on the hot seat, both don't care if any of the prospects do anything in Colorado. This was a save-their-job move. 
 

FanSinceBoggs

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Definitely. Reyes is now a DH in an ex-SS's body
 
 
(1) Reyes' defense has declined, but so has Tulo's.  Do most defensive metrics suggest that Tulo is a major defensive upgrade over Reyes or a slight defensive upgrade over Reyes?  What defensive metrics are we talking about?  My take is that Tulo is a slight defensive upgrade over Reyes but we aren't talking about Ozzie Smith here.
 
(2) the most valuable commodity in this deal is Hoffman.  He may never make it, of course, but he has the potential to be a cost controlled front line starter.  In contrast, Tulo's contract will soon turn into an albatross (and the Blue Jays probably won't be able to keep him at SS for the duration of the contract) and Reyes is vastly overpaid.  I prefer Tulo over Reyes as a player, but I would rather have Reyes' contract--50 million dollars less and thus easier to move (both players, of course, are injury prone and thus bad news from that vantage point too, but Tulo has probably missed more games than Reyes and has probably had more serious injuries as well).  If the Rockies include money, I think they can trade Reyes' contract.  It is going to be harder for the Blue Jays to do that with Tulo's contract particularly in one or two years.
 

canderson

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Toronto is switching to grass this off-season, right? 
 
That might make this move a little better for them, because Tulo on turf would probably be a disaster. 
 

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canderson

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Oh, well strike that thought then. He simply cannot stay healthy, and unlike the Vic deal Toronto isn't winning the WS this season to make it all a wash in the end IMO. 
 

FanSinceBoggs

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canderson said:
Toronto isn't winning the WS this season to make it all a wash in the end IMO. 
 
They probably won't even make the playoffs.  Yet they give up a guy who could have been the top pick in the draft if not for T.J. Surgery (Hoffman), and they take on an extra 50 million in exchanging two declining shortstops.  But like it was said above, the Blue Jays front office is desperate--they are probably gone if they don't make the playoffs.
 
The Rockies have to be thrilled: added a high ceiling arm and a less onerous contract.
 

MakMan44

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canderson said:
Oh, well strike that thought then. He simply cannot stay healthy, and unlike the Vic deal Toronto isn't winning the WS this season to make it all a wash in the end IMO. 
Toronto has the best offense in baseball. Bolded doesn't seem to be a lock if they get in. 
 

FanSinceBoggs

seantwo
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Just saw that the Blue Jays and Yankees play each other 13 more times this year.  LOL.  Still, statistically, how many more wins does Tulo provide the Blue Jays in two months?  One game?  Two at the most?
 

DJnVa

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FanSinceBoggs said:
Just saw that the Blue Jays and Yankees play each other 13 more times this year.  LOL.  Still, statistically, how many more wins does Tulo provide the Blue Jays in two months?  One game?  Two at the most?
 
 
Wouldn't that be the argument against nearly every deadline deal?
 
 
 
Anyway, Toronto getting more hitting is like the Colts signing another WR.
 
 

MakMan44

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DrewDawg said:
 
Anyway, Toronto getting more hitting is like the Colts signing another WR.
 
Dave Cameron disagrees. 
 


When people argue against upgrading strengths, they’re really arguing for the presence of diminishing returns, but in baseball, the evidence actually supports the idea that adding a good hitter to an already good line-up actually returns a higher level of value, not a lower one. I wrote about this concept earlier this year; while people tend to want to balance out a team’s strengths and weaknesses, historical data actually shows that stacking good hitters has non-linear impacts, and the Blue Jays may actually get more of a benefit by adding a good hitter to their line-up than they would by adding an equivalent upgrade in the rotation.
 

jmm57

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They probably won't even make the playoffs.  Yet they give up a guy who could have been the top pick in the draft if not for T.J. Surgery (Hoffman), and they take on an extra 50 million in exchanging two declining shortstops.  But like it was said above, the Blue Jays front office is desperate--they are probably gone if they don't make the playoffs.
 
The Rockies have to be thrilled: added a high ceiling arm and a less onerous contract.
3 games out of the WC with 60+ left and they have the best run differential (by 20) in the AL. Seems to me they have a pretty good shot at making it to at least a wild card game.
 

Ale Xander

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FanSinceBoggs said:
Just saw that the Blue Jays and Yankees play each other 13 more times this year.  LOL.  Still, statistically, how many more wins does Tulo provide the Blue Jays in two months?  One game?  Two at the most?
going from 6-7 to 8-5, for example, v. MFYs, is a 4 game swing between the teams. Plus they have 7 v. Orioles left. I think the Twins fall out of it and 2 from the East still make it (w/Astros).
 

soxhop411

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“@Ken_Rosenthal: As @JeffPassan wrote, #Rockies’ players upset with team’s handling of Tulo. Exec: “You do lose something when you lie to your superstars.””
 

FanSinceBoggs

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I guess the Blue Jays still do have a decent chance for a wild card.  I could see the Twins falling off and the Blue Jays winning the wild card.  Then again, the Tigers might be the team that plays well over the final two months and wins the second wild card.  The Blue Jays have been losers for so long now--I don't trust them very much.
 
Mayo on the three young arms acquired by the Rockies:
http://m.rockies.mlb.com/news/article/139213112/rockies-get-3-rhp-prospects-for-tulowitzki
 

ehaz

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Found this about LaTroy. I was shocked to be reminded that ageless man is still pitching.  Seems like an incredible dude.
 
 
And when 13-year-old Sammy had his Bar Mitzvah in 2008, Hawkins, his wife and daughter all flew to Florida, even though it was Hawkins’ birthday weekend.
“In a Jewish kid’s life, a Bar or Bat Mitzvah is basically the thing you work up to,” Sammy said. “I think he felt somewhat of an ownership, almost a pseudo-parental-fraternal role for me. … But it’s not even as much about having a professional baseball player as a friend, but more the quality of person that he is. You just absorb every single characteristic of himself into you, and as a kid, you can mold yourself in his image.”
 

jon abbey

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FanSinceBoggs said:
I guess the Blue Jays still do have a decent chance for a wild card.  I could see the Twins falling off and the Blue Jays winning the wild card.  Then again, the Tigers might be the team that plays well over the final two months and wins the second wild card.  The Blue Jays have been losers for so long now--I don't trust them very much.
 
 
But it's not just about this year, their whole offensive core is under control for 2016 too. Bautista and Encarnacion have relatively cheap club options, Martin and Tulo are on long-term deals, and Donaldson still has a few more years of arb control.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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I'm not really seeing this as a deadline type deal. You can make a case for it if you think Toronto had completely soured on Reyes. If they felt they HAd to get ride of him then the only way that would be possible was to take on another onerous contract. And in this case there's the happy coincidence that the onerous contract belongs to a really good player who directly replaces Reyes.

Still .. That's a huge commitment to a player who can't stay on the field.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
I'm not really seeing this as a deadline type deal. You can make a case for it if you think Toronto had completely soured on Reyes. If they felt they HAd to get ride of him then the only way that would be possible was to take on another onerous contract. And in this case there's the happy coincidence that the onerous contract belongs to a really good player who directly replaces Reyes.

Still .. That's a huge commitment to a player who can't stay on the field.
The DH will help with that. The Jays have other guys to rotate through there, of course, but Tulo being able to save his legs a few days a week is a huge change from what he could expect in the NL.
 

FanSinceBoggs

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Reyes' OPS against RHP: .741
Tulo's OPS against RHP: .770
 
But there is a big difference against lefties.
Reyes' OPS against LHP: .613
Tulo's OPS against LHP: .986
 
I haven't been able to find an artilcle that compares both players defensively.  Tulo is better defensively but is he a slight upgrade or major upgrade?  The Blue Jays better hope for the latter.  The problem is, Tulo's defense has declined too. 
 
I don't know what we should think about a team that has a good run differential and yet is one game under .500.  Some would no doubt argue that the Blue Jays record is due to bad luck.  Another perspective on the matter: the Blue Jays are a dysfunctional team -- the parts don't fit together -- and this is why they are playing .500 ball notwithstanding a superior run differential.
 

FanSinceBoggs

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Rudy Pemberton said:
All it means is that they win by more runs than they lose by. May be a function of an offensive minded team, lots of blowout wins vs lesser pitching, close losses vs better pitching.
 
If that is the case, the Blue Jays superior run differential has limited predictive value in terms of yielding better results in the standings: they will continue to blow out lesser pitching and lose close games against better pitching.
 

SydneySox

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Maybe just three awful years, but worth noting at least that NY has absolutely owned Tulo since 2013 - dude only has one hit against them in all that time!!
 

jon abbey

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SydneySox said:
Maybe just three awful years, but worth noting at least that NY has absolutely owned Tulo since 2013 - dude only has one hit against them in all that time!!
So unnecessary.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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FanSinceBoggs said:
 
If that is the case, the Blue Jays superior run differential has limited predictive value in terms of yielding better results in the standings: they will continue to blow out lesser pitching and lose close games against better pitching.
 
Or, you know, there will be some regression and they'll win games at a rate similar to what their run differential would indicate going forward? Nah, couldn't be. Clearly their run differential is an anomaly and tells us nothing.
 

jon abbey

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Bumping the original trade thread...

Tulo has played 351 games in the last 3 1/2 seasons (his 27-30 seasons). Is he really a good bet to play more than 100 games per year from his age 31-35 seasons now that he is moving to the turf of Toronto?
They got 197 games out of him in the first two seasons, 0 in the third season, and released him before seasons 4/5. The guys they gave up look like duds too, and they did come back and win the 2015 AL East, but still a lot of money for very little production.