Triston Casas- 2018 Draft #26 overall

TimScribble

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Saw there was a new post and figured it was around his 4th homer, only to find out it was about his 5th. The kid’s on an unbelievable run right now.
 

billy ashley

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Casas' season has been interrupted by two Olympics tournaments (the qualifier and then the real thing). He performed well in both of those. Some have questioned his lack of power this year (I think he had 6 homers in those tournaments). Given the tape-measure home runs and the goofy nature of his season, and his excellent approach, most evaluators seem unconcerned about the "lack of power" before this week.

I think the past 24 hours is a great example of why.

It's amazing that this guy basically got zero time in high A and is doing so well in AA. That's normally the biggest jump in the minors.
 

Manzivino

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In 22 games since returning from the Olympics, he's hitting .311/.452/.608 with 4 2B, 6 HR and a 17/14 BB/K ratio. Most of that slugging is a result of this HR binge (he slugged .377 for August), but even in that power drought his OBP was .408. It's not like he's just getting insanely lucky either, his BABIP in that stretch is .315. The kid is a stud.
 

amRadio

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Feb 7, 2019
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It’s all about service time.
I don't really think the Sox need to manipulate service time as much as they need a 1B. Also, we're assuming there is a season in 2022, and that if there is, "service time" is a thing that still exists. Who knows how all that shakes out, point is Casas is going great right now.
 

nighthob

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I don't really think the Sox need to manipulate service time as much as they need a 1B. Also, we're assuming there is a season in 2022, and that if there is, "service time" is a thing that still exists. Who knows how all that shakes out, point is Casas is going great right now.
Except that they will as there’s a real incentive to bleeding out the extra low cost service time. They can live with a 1B rotation of Dalbec and Schwarber for a while.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Except that they will as there’s a real incentive to bleeding out the extra low cost service time. They can live with a 1B rotation of Dalbec and Schwarber for a while.
Yeah, somehow I think we’ll survive for a couple weeks without Casas. Starting his service time clock a year early for 15 games would be a head scratcher.
 

amRadio

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Feb 7, 2019
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I mean, I never suggested he would be up this season so I don't know where that's coming from. The Sox won't keep him in the minor leagues if they need his help in 2022, even in the first half.
 

Marbleheader

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Sep 27, 2004
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I picked up a couple of his 2018 Bowman Chrome Autos last year and as his stock has risen, the card value has increased nicely. Looking more and more like he's going to be the real deal.
 

EdRalphRomero

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I didn't realize that Casas had such a pronounced split. In 2021 (I think this is time in Portland only so omitting the end of season at Worcester) against LHP .234/.306/.313 and against RHP .299/.420/.536. I wonder if they might consider platooning him with Dalbec to start (maybe toward middle of season assuming Casas hits well in Worcester). I realize that you are going to want Casas to continue to develop an approach against lefties. I wonder if he would see enough even in a platoon.
 

snowmanny

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At this point, it’s how he fares against lefties that will determine his mlb path, right?
He does have a big minor league split. In the old days when they had starting pitchers you would just platoon him with Dalbec.
 

Cesar Crespo

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He does have a big minor league split. In the old days when they had starting pitchers you would just platoon him with Dalbec.
He probably hasn't faced all that many lefties in his life either, at least of any quality. It might be one of those things he has to learn at the MLB level.
 

TheYellowDart5

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Caught Casas tonight at the Fall Stars game. His first at-bat came off an Angels righty who hung a breaker that he drilled to right and would've driven in a run but was a ground-rule double, got stuck in the corner in right. Second at-bat, he topped a ball to the right side against Bobby Miller, a Dodgers righty working 97-99 with a change and curve. He fed him nothing but offspeed until the final pitch: called strike one, called strike two, fastball hit to first for an out. The double in the first AB was hit super hard, he has easy power it looks like. Interestingly he takes a tight crouch and chokes up with two strikes ala Joey Votto with the goal, I assume, being to play Votto and spoil until he gets something he likes. He needs to bulk up to make that approach work I think, but from what I heard from folks at the game, he's shown legit power all fall. Defensively, don't recall him having to do anything out of the ordinary, no picks or big stops or anything.
 
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Merkle's Boner

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Casas now at .372/.495/.487 in Arizona in 97 plate appearances. Any thoughts of what he’d have to do in Spring Training to break camp with the big club?
 

Marbleheader

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It depends on what happens with the CBA in regards to service time. He has only had a cup of coffee in AAA and if the rules don't change it's highly unlikely.
 

pokey_reese

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Break camp? Almost no chance. Rake for a few months at AAA and come up if/when Dalbec struggles? Much more likely. Good AFL performance is better than a bad performance, but he still has very little exposure to the high minors or a track record that translates well to the major league level, and the variety of pitching that he is competing against in Arizona right now is not the equivalent of a good AAA staff, if only because of the age mix.
 

shaggydog2000

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Break camp? Almost no chance. Rake for a few months at AAA and come up if/when Dalbec struggles? Much more likely. Good AFL performance is better than a bad performance, but he still has very little exposure to the high minors or a track record that translates well to the major league level, and the variety of pitching that he is competing against in Arizona right now is not the equivalent of a good AAA staff, if only because of the age mix.
I think we mentioned in the Downs thread that the AFL is roughly equal to AA level competition on average, so we're really not getting any new information from his stats there. We know he can rake against that level of competition. He needs to show he can hit against AAA level competition in a game setting, and that is going to mean time at Worcester after spring training I would think.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Casas now at .372/.495/.487 in Arizona in 97 plate appearances. Any thoughts of what he’d have to do in Spring Training to break camp with the big club?
It's a non zero number. I'd say 5-10% but I openly admit I'm aggressive with player development. Although I've noticed a lot of times, the Sox thoughts line up with my own. I'd guess others have the number at < 1%.

They have been really aggressive with Casas since the beginning, and while a lot has been made about Downs skipping over AA and struggling mightily in AAA, no one really mentions Casas skipping over A+ (7 PA) and not missing a beat. In fact, he improved. He struggled with power early on, but still hit well enough despite that. The power also arrived in a big way later in the season. His only real struggles were in June, but that was after being away from the team for awhile.

Starting on July 1st, he had 220 PA between AA/AAA, slashed .284/.418/.534 (.299 BAbip) with 40bb/34k.
In his first 153 PA of the year, he slashed .269/.353/.410 on a .344 BAbip with 17bb/38k.

That is a remarkable improvement over the course of the season for a player who at 21 is young for AA (even pre covid) and skipped over a league. Any time a player walks more than he strikes out is a positive sign. This is especially true when Casas had all of 22 PA against pitchers younger than him. If you include his AFL performance, he has 57bb/52k over 317 PA. That's an 18.0% BB% and a 16.4% K rate. In his first full season (his only other season) he had an 11.6% BB% and a 23.2% K% in 500 PA. In his first 153 PA this year, those rates were 11.1% BB% and 24.8%, about on par with last season. That's 653 PA. So in the last 300+, he's improved his BB% around 6.5% while lowering his K rate around 7.0% in a more advanced league... and I'll repeat it again, while skipping over A+. This is also why I'm incredibly high on Nick Yorke. (First 52 PA, 3bb/18k. Last 390 PA: 49bb/51k. That includes 96 PA in A+ (11bb/22k), so he really started to dominate the A league before forcing a promotion.

The one thing that may keep Casas down in AAA for awhile is the left handed hitting but I'm not sure that's something he'll see enough of at the AAA level to make any serious developments. I think it's something he may have to learn at the ML level. I'd really like to see his AFL splits but I'm guessing he's seen 25-30 PA vs L at most. There's also the possibility that Dalbec mashes.
 

nayrbrey

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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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It's a non zero number. I'd say 5-10% but I openly admit I'm aggressive with player development. Although I've noticed a lot of times, the Sox thoughts line up with my own. I'd guess others have the number at < 1%.

They have been really aggressive with Casas since the beginning, and while a lot has been made about Downs skipping over AA and struggling mightily in AAA, no one really mentions Casas skipping over A+ (7 PA) and not missing a beat. In fact, he improved. He struggled with power early on, but still hit well enough despite that. The power also arrived in a big way later in the season. His only real struggles were in June, but that was after being away from the team for awhile.

Starting on July 1st, he had 220 PA between AA/AAA, slashed .284/.418/.534 (.299 BAbip) with 40bb/34k.
In his first 153 PA of the year, he slashed .269/.353/.410 on a .344 BAbip with 17bb/38k.

That is a remarkable improvement over the course of the season for a player who at 21 is young for AA (even pre covid) and skipped over a league. Any time a player walks more than he strikes out is a positive sign. This is especially true when Casas had all of 22 PA against pitchers younger than him. If you include his AFL performance, he has 57bb/52k over 317 PA. That's an 18.0% BB% and a 16.4% K rate. In his first full season (his only other season) he had an 11.6% BB% and a 23.2% K% in 500 PA. In his first 153 PA this year, those rates were 11.1% BB% and 24.8%, about on par with last season. That's 653 PA. So in the last 300+, he's improved his BB% around 6.5% while lowering his K rate around 7.0% in a more advanced league... and I'll repeat it again, while skipping over A+. This is also why I'm incredibly high on Nick Yorke. (First 52 PA, 3bb/18k. Last 390 PA: 49bb/51k. That includes 96 PA in A+ (11bb/22k), so he really started to dominate the A league before forcing a promotion.

The one thing that may keep Casas down in AAA for awhile is the left handed hitting but I'm not sure that's something he'll see enough of at the AAA level to make any serious developments. I think it's something he may have to learn at the ML level. I'd really like to see his AFL splits but I'm guessing he's seen 25-30 PA vs L at most. There's also the possibility that Dalbec mashes.
I don’t know where I’m getting this from- but isn’t the two single A levels considered pretty even? The jump from low A to high A being minimal in competition quality while the jump from single A to AA is often thought of to be the most challenging?
So Casas jump wouldn’t be that difficult while Downs was much more. I still am puzzled why they had him at AAA with no time at AA, so the struggles, to me, were likely.
 

mikcou

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I don’t know where I’m getting this from- but isn’t the two single A levels considered pretty even? The jump from low A to high A being minimal in competition quality while the jump from single A to AA is often thought of to be the most challenging?
So Casas jump wouldn’t be that difficult while Downs was much more. I still am puzzled why they had him at AAA with no time at AA, so the struggles, to me, were likely.
The jump from Hi-A to AA is definitely greater than from Low-A to High-A, but I wouldnt call the difference in competition minimal - especially so for guys out of high school (guys out of college will often have played against better competition than Low-A so they often spend very little time there). High-A is a significantly more competitive league and you can start to see a lot more of the purely organizational player types struggling in High-A where they might have succeeded in Low-A.

The jump is bigger mostly because a lot of guys start flaming out in High-A so those lesser talents dont get to AA.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don’t know where I’m getting this from- but isn’t the two single A levels considered pretty even? The jump from low A to high A being minimal in competition quality while the jump from single A to AA is often thought of to be the most challenging?
So Casas jump wouldn’t be that difficult while Downs was much more. I still am puzzled why they had him at AAA with no time at AA, so the struggles, to me, were likely.
What mikcou said. The jump from A+ to AA is definitely a bigger jump but the jump from A to A+ is far from minimal.

The GCL and the NYPL were pretty much equal, Rookie Level/Short season.