Trey Ball

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Jun 15, 2013
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BALTIMORE — High school left-hander Trey Ball, Boston's top pick in the draft at No. 7 overall, is expected to fly to Boston on Sunday, according to a source familiar with the negotiations.
 
Ball's deal is not yet finalized, but negotiations have gone smoothly.
 
The assigned bonus value to the seventh overall pick is $3,246,000. Ball reportedly is expected to sign below that figure. Masslive.
 

Getting Ball for less than the assigned value could be a coup for the Sox.
 

ItOnceWasMyLife

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Drafting team is not required to offer the slot money.  IF you want to play, you're stuck with what they'll give you.
 

LondonSox

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Andrew said:
Why would someone ever sign for less than their assigned value? That makes no sense.
1) it's not a free market
2) you might want to sign for the team
3) you might have a pre draft deal, where you sign for less. Ball had no idea where he would have gone, if not the sox on an agreed small discount he might have slipped to say 15-20 which would be less than the agreed deal. Plus happy to sign with a good team
4) you want to go pro
5) 2.5 million (for example) is a loooot of money to turn down. You have to wait 3 years to get another with performance and injury risk. You have no idea what you will get offered in three years.

There are many other reasons
 

AbbyNoho

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If you're drafted 7th overall what are the odds they don't end up giving you slot money if you insist upon it? It'd be one thing to be trying for more money than that, but it seems like you have pretty good leverage to ask for the average amount of money advised for that slot.
 

radsoxfan

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Andrew said:
If you're drafted 7th overall what are the odds they don't end up giving you slot money if you insist upon it? It'd be one thing to be trying for more money than that, but it seems like you have pretty good leverage to ask for the average amount of money advised for that slot.
 
This is exactly why teams get a compensatory pick the following year if they don't sign their draft pick.  Without the compensation, players would have far more leverage.  
 

Bigpupp

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Andrew said:
If you're drafted 7th overall what are the odds they don't end up giving you slot money if you insist upon it? It'd be one thing to be trying for more money than that, but it seems like you have pretty good leverage to ask for the average amount of money advised for that slot.
Would you be willing to go to college for 3 years and risk an injury that might end your career all while giving up 3M only because they didn't give you 3.3M instead?
 

OttoC

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Shouldn't this guy be signed and assigned before he has a prospect thread? There is already more than one thread devoted to the draft picks.
 

AbbyNoho

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Bigpupp said:
Would you be willing to go to college for 3 years and risk an injury that might end your career all while giving up 3M only because they didn't give you 3.3M instead?
 
Me? No, of course not. But would the Red Sox give up the number 7 overall pick for 0.3M? Probably not either.
 
I"m not arguing that this doesn't happen, because obviously it does, I'm just trying to reason out *why* it happens.
 

radsoxfan

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Andrew said:
Me? No, of course not. But would the Red Sox give up the number 7 overall pick for 0.3M? Probably not either.
 
Again..... they would not lose the #7 pick.  They get compensation next year with an equivalent pick.
 
Sure, they don't want to wait a year for their draft choice.  But it gives the team substantial leverage they otherwise wouldn't have.
 

AbbyNoho

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They get an equivalent pick? I thought they got one at the end of the first round. The difference between the beginning and the end of the first round can be sizeable. Sorry, I guess I just misunderstood the rule.
 

radsoxfan

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Andrew said:
They get an equivalent pick? I thought they got one at the end of the first round. The difference between the beginning and the end of the first round can be sizeable. Sorry, I guess I just misunderstood the rule.
 
They get the equivalent pick, +1.  If the Sox don't sign Trey Ball, they get the #8 pick in 2014.  It's only good for 1 year though, as failure to sign the following year's pick does not result in compensation.  
 

JakeRae

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Would you be willing to go to college for 3 years and risk an injury that might end your career all while giving up 3M only because they didn't give you 3.3M instead?

 
Me? No, of course not. But would the Red Sox give up the number 7 overall pick for 0.3M? Probably not either.
 
I"m not arguing that this doesn't happen, because obviously it does, I'm just trying to reason out *why* it happens.
It happens because negotiations are not one sided. Sure, teams are hurt by not signing their 1st pick. They lose a slot or two in the draft, a year of time value, and leverage with the replacement pick. The player has far more at stake though given that a player like Ball has some upside in going to college but the entirety of his current offer to lose as downside. The remarkable thing is not that players sign for below slot but that, with the recent changes, so many still seem to be able to sign for slot or above. The teams have a lot to gain by exercising the negotiating leverage afforded to them by the compensatory pick system in the zero-sum game of draft spending.
 

cannonball 1729

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radsoxfan said:
They get the equivalent pick, +1.  If the Sox don't sign Trey Ball, they get the #8 pick in 2014.  It's only good for 1 year though, as failure to sign the following year's pick does not result in compensation.  
 
Yep.  The Pirates had the #9 pick this year because they drafted Mark Appel as the #8 pick last year and didn't sign him.   (That's in addition to having the #14 pick in the draft for being the 13th-worst team in baseball.)
 

gammoseditor

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Does anyone really think there's any negotiating here?  The Red Sox called Ball before picking him and said we'll take you if you sign for X.  Ball is going to say yes because X is still higher than the maximum amount for the #8 pick, so he has no way of getting more money. 
 

pjr

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ItOnceWasMyLife said:
Drafting team is not required to offer the slot money.  IF you want to play, you're stuck with what they'll give you.
The Astros and Pirates agree.
 
It appears that the Astros have accomplished what the Pirates could not last year.  Houston has agreed to terms with first overall pick Mark Appel on a deal worth $6.35MM.  That number falls below the suggested slot value for the No. 1 pick, which is $7.79MM, according to   Baseball  America.
 
Pirates Sign Second-Rounder Blake Taylor
SUNDAY, 12:06pm: Taylor will get a bonus of $750K, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America (via Twitter).  It's an under-slot deal for the left-hander as the suggested value of the No. 51 pick is just over $1.065MM.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/06/pirates-sign-second-rounder-blake-taylor.html
 

JakeRae

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Does anyone really think there's any negotiating here?  The Red Sox called Ball before picking him and said we'll take you if you sign for X.  Ball is going to say yes because X is still higher than the maximum amount for the #8 pick, so he has no way of getting more money. 


They can't sign him before picking him. They do have something to lose if they fail to sign him. There are going to be varying degrees of negotiation, but it is silly to assume that the process would be completely one sided. If Ball wants an extra 100k, there would likely be a real negotiation. If he wants an extra $2 million, the Sox would just wait him out or walk away. (Extra is relative to the opening offer, not slot.)
 

LondonSox

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Pretty much as expected, below slot but not silly. Helping them take a run at a few others. I would wager they were torn on who to pick if their top choices didn't make it and ball broke the tie by agreeing a lower deal.
As said elsewhere its no cost to him as he wasn't getting over slot lower in the draft and I'd take the sox over most franchises for prospects. Most teams picking the top 10 don't have the lustre.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Like Jon Denney, Trey Ball has not impressed in the immediate aftermath of the draft.   He has a 6.73 ERA and has made it through just 7 innings total, spread over 5 games.  He's walked one more than he's struck out (6:5).  It's not terribly surprising for a high school draftee to struggle early in their pro career, so I wouldn't read too much into it, but I figured I'd update this thread with a cross post from the Denny thread.  ESPN has an article up about the two of them which was posted on Thursday.  It's worth a read if you're interested in how each of these kids has been adjusting to life after high school.
 
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/30409/ball-denney-adjusting-to-pro-life-in-gcl
 

amfox1

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jsinger121 said:
 
He actually has not been assigned to Lowell. He's in extended spring training right now and we could even see him in Greenville within a month or 2 depending on promotions.
 
Per SoxProspects.com, Ball is being assigned to Greenville this week.
 

Plympton91

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Not exactly a ringing endorsement of a #7 overall pick in that article.  Fastball only "up to 92 mph" and lots of work to do on his secondary pitches.  Yikes.  He's young and inexperienced, so no need to panic yet, but I know a lot of us thought this pick was a reach and wanted one of the potential impact bats instead.  Would have been nice to see him come roaring out of the gate a little more.
 

Just a bit outside

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Plympton91 said:
Not exactly a ringing endorsement of a #7 overall pick in that article.  Fastball only "up to 92 mph" and lots of work to do on his secondary pitches.  Yikes.  He's young and inexperienced, so no need to panic yet, but I know a lot of us thought this pick was a reach and wanted one of the potential impact bats instead.  Would have been nice to see him come roaring out of the gate a little more.
Ball was a high ceiling, low floor pick.  He had very little pitching experience and it is going to take some time.  Expecting him to come roaring out of the gate when he had hardly thrown a curve in high school is a huge leap.  I think Ball is going to take a little longer than most to see if he reaches his potential.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Yeah, complaining that a pick out of high school is throwing only up to 92 mph is missing the point of picking a high upside high school pitcher.  He's 19 (will be 20 in late June).  He has plenty of time to fill out and pick up some velocity.  Plus, it's early in the year and he's coming out of extended spring training.  Even major league pitchers often start the year throwing a little softer than usual.  And reports out of high school had him throwing up to 94.  His velocity will be fine and I'm guessing we'll see reports of him getting into the mid 90's later this year.
 
As for his secondary pitches, he's raw.  We knew that last June.  It shouldn't be a surprise that he's raw now.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Austin Meadows is the guy most people here wanted with that pick.  He was drafted two picks later by the Pirates and had a .977 OPS last year between rookie ball and low A.
 

The Talented Allen Ripley

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
Austin Meadows is the guy most people here wanted with that pick.  He was drafted two picks later by the Pirates and had a .977 OPS last year between rookie ball and low A.
 
 
Given where the Sox were picking, I really wanted Frazier or Meadows going into the draft. Frazier was off the table by #7, was pulling for Meadows big-time. Oh well, I hope Ball proves me wrong. I don't know shit about amateur players and scouting, so this is mainly a chance to whine ineffectually.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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I should rephrase.  When the Red Sox were actually on the clock, with Frazier gone most people wanted and were expecting Meadows.  I think there was a pretty even split between people wanting Frazier and Meadows before the draft started.  I was a Frazier guy, but both looked like fine picks.  Ball was a surprise, but when we dug a little deeper, it was easy to see what the Red Sox liked about him so much.  I'm still leaning toward Meadows being the better pick, but in the immortal words of Austin Danger Powers, "...that train has sailed."
 

derekson

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That's pretty much exactly how I felt at the time. I wanted one of Frazier or Meadows, but I preferred Frazier. I was really disappointed when the Indians snagged him out of the blue, but thought "oh well, Meadows is still on the board". Was very shocked to see the Red Sox go completely off the reservation and pick Ball. I really hope they made a smart pick, but I still feel like Meadows was the obvious move and the Ball pick was just a case of trying too hard to be the smartest guys in the room.
 

Plympton91

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derekson said:
That's pretty much exactly how I felt at the time. I wanted one of Frazier or Meadows, but I preferred Frazier. I was really disappointed when the Indians snagged him out of the blue, but thought "oh well, Meadows is still on the board". Was very shocked to see the Red Sox go completely off the reservation and pick Ball. I really hope they made a smart pick, but I still feel like Meadows was the obvious move and the Ball pick was just a case of trying too hard to be the smartest guys in the room.
I was thinking this morning about whether their combined need to have top of the rotation starters to compete every year and increasing aversion to big ticket free agents played a role in the decision to go with Ball over Meadows. They know that they can get a reasonable amount of production from Nava/Gomes type platoons, but you can't platoon starting pitchers. So the riskier bet on a potential ace trumps the safer bet on a potential slugger? Just food for thought as the Red Sox got nearly no hit and Ball got torched in his second outing.

I wonder if he'll get bumped back to Lowell or the GCL when their seasons open? Could be they just wanted to get his inning count started with this month's worth of starts at Greenville.
 

WenZink

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Plympton91 said:
I was thinking this morning about whether their combined need to have top of the rotation starters to compete every year and increasing aversion to big ticket free agents played a role in the decision to go with Ball over Meadows. They know that they can get a reasonable amount of production from Nava/Gomes type platoons, but you can't platoon starting pitchers. So the riskier bet on a potential ace trumps the safer bet on a potential slugger? Just food for thought as the Red Sox got nearly no hit and Ball got torched in his second outing.

I wonder if he'll get bumped back to Lowell or the GCL when their seasons open? Could be they just wanted to get his inning count started with this month's worth of starts at Greenville.
 
Not enough data to support any of your points.  In the 2013 Amateur Draft, Baseball America had Meadows ranked #5, and Ball #9.  Considering they were both HS kids, there's no reason to believe the Sox didn't have one ranked above the other.  And Ball has thrown 3 starts in Greenville,  The first two he went a combined 10 innings, allowing 5 ER and 8 K's and 1 BB, with 15 H.  Depending upon what he was asked to do, those 2 could be considered a success or adequate.  So he's still 19 and screwed the pooch in this 3rd start.  Means nothing unless you have reports of him screaming and crying on the mound.
 

FelixMantilla

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soxhop411 said:
That DL stint was a few days ago. (Unless he is going on the DL for the same thing again)
 
You're right. I had gotten my Baseball America email today and saw he was hit hard and his season ERA is up to 10.05.
 

Gash Prex

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I watched his start in person night and it was just terrible, nothing redeeming that wasn't shown in the box score. His fastball was getting hammered, couldn't control the breaking ball. It was so bad that when Ball would turn around, the catcher would look in with an exasperated look to the dugout. It was ridiculous. The stadium gun had him 90-91 most of the night.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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Progress, I guess last night, with 3 ER over five innings and more Ks (4) than BBs for the first time in his last three starts. Still, my visit to lye Trey Ball stat page to cheer myself up with visions of a very high 2015 draft pick hardly did the trick.

Yes, he's not quite 20 and it's all of 4 starts. But 12 Ks in 19 IP, an 8.38 ERA, .388 BAA, and inability to get the ball on the ground is no way to go through life, son.

Edit: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=640441
 

WenZink

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Mugsys Jock said:
Progress, I guess last night, with 3 ER over five innings and more Ks (4) than BBs for the first time in his last three starts. Still, my visit to lye Trey Ball stat page to cheer myself up with visions of a very high 2015 draft pick hardly did the trick.

Yes, he's not quite 20 and it's all of 4 starts. But 12 Ks in 19 IP, an 8.38 ERA, .388 BAA, and inability to get the ball on the ground is no way to go through life, son.

Edit: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=640441
 
It's difficult, if not impossible, to assess a 19 year old pitcher from a stat sheet.  We could use an eye-witness account.  4 shutout innings to start, and then he got hit hard in the 5th, although I heard the leadoff double was misplayed by the outfielder.  It sounds like he was doing well the first time through the lineup, but that he might have switched to his secondary pitches the 2nd and 3rd times through and wasn't as effective.  The first Sox prospect I followed from Low A ball to the majors was Jon Lester and his stats were up and down until he hit AA at 21 years old and then put it all together.  Trey is more of a project but with a higher upside.  Wish I could see him pitch in person.
 

WenZink

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semsox said:
Somehow needs 41 pitches to get 2 outs, facing what appears to be 5 batters total.
 
41 pitches, but 26 strikes, which is a more than decent ratio.  All it takes is for 1 or 2 batters to have an at-bat where they foul off a 5 or 6 pitches after getting to 2 strikes.
 

Marbleheader

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Ball went 5 tonight giving up no earned runs, 3k, 1bb. 69 pitches-45 strikes.