Sure. Maybe one in which Yorke and Mayer have both arrived and taken over the middle infield and the Sox would prefer to have the money to lock up Casas or Houck or someone like that.
Trevor Story has signed with the Boston Red Sox
- Thread starter mikeford
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I’d say the only scenario would be if Story is solid but not incredible, and Mayer and Yorke are both in Boston and ready to take the middle infield over.
I was wondering the other way around, that Bloom has had preliminary conversations with Boras that lead him to believe it's going to be a long shot to keep X, and that Story is significantly a hedge against that.
The way this thread is trending, by the end of the day half the board will be hoping he opts out ... if just because it's better for the teamSo a contract lower than expected means a team overpaid and a contract higher than expected would also mean team overpaid?
A thank you to the folks here who have posted or shared links about the positive and negative effects of Coors Field. Yet another reason why this place is the best.
As far as how FA contracts go, this is a pretty good one. Just add a 100 ops+ guy in RF who plays pretty good defense, and the lineup is looking really good.
Imagine if they had signed Suzuki too? Man…
As far as how FA contracts go, this is a pretty good one. Just add a 100 ops+ guy in RF who plays pretty good defense, and the lineup is looking really good.
Imagine if they had signed Suzuki too? Man…
What thread are you reading? Is anyone saying he is overpaid with this deal? I'm certainly not making that argument. I'm happy the sox got him at a contract lower than expected. I hope the reason for the lower than expected contract is the sequence of signings not problems with his elbow.So a contract lower than expected means a team overpaid and a contract higher than expected would also mean team overpaid?
He'll be 33 when he can opt out. The way trends are going in baseball, nullifying it pays him for his age 34-35-36 seasons.
The Sox might be fine with him opting out
If he opted out, there's a good chance he knows his market is a lot higher than 3/60-65.
I don't really get the point of the player option for Story. If he's great, the Sox add on another year. If he's not, he doesn't opt out.
edit: the 7th year at $20 mil isn't so bad. I guess that's the point.
Agreed. Story/Suzuki would have fit this team’s needs like a glove (on paper, at least). But the addition of Story should help this team tread water for the first half of the season when we’ll hopefully have guys like Sale, Paxton, Casas, etc. joining. Chaim will surely scour the league for a RF upgrade and there will probably be more options as the season unfolds.
True. But for some teams, paying a free agent 3/70-75 might be more interesting to them than paying the same guy 3/60-65 and giving up a prospect or two.
True, but I wouldn't be surprised if Bogaerts gets a day off every week and half a day off at DH periodically. This would give Story time at SS, to keep Story sharp and get some value out of his superior glove.
But even if it's a mid-tier prospect that wouldn't stop the Red Sox from opting in.
A mid-tier prospect is more than nothing.
I know when raised as an option in the off-season thread people doubted story would move to second, but this always made sense in part because Of the hedge you allude to above. I hope they resign X…and they are better situated for that discussion now.
optionality is not often a benefit of a six year $140 mil deal but in this case it was
It's a simple as in four years Story might see himself as worth more than 2/40 (or however it's structured), while the Red Sox might not see him as worth 3/60. It's real straightforward if Story is a perennial all star or if he gets hurt a bunch and is replacement level, but it very well might not be that black and white.
I think we'll know after four seasons whether throwing 20 mil at Story, when he'll be 36, is worth it
I mean, the competition always adds players, so we have to add players too. The Yanks in particular have just added and added and added - they must have like 400 players!
(In recent years, I've been shifting to "dumb.")
No...follow along--
Generally speaking if a player gets a contract higher than everyone expected the basic thought is that someone overpaid. And now, because of this thread, we can add the thought that if the contract is lower than we thought then somehow we also paid too much.
I was having a bit of fun with the idea that a contract lower than expected is somehow an issue.
The more I think about it, the more I like the structure of the Red Sox having a 7th year option that can override the player’s opt-out after year 4. We get the player’s age 29-32 years for sure. Then if Story’s been great and wants to test free agency at age 32, we can pick up the option and have him for years 33-35, effectively a 3-year deal. If he opts out and his performance has been more borderline, we can let him go. It’s a nice veto on the opt-out with a relatively low marginal cost of one more year.
Free agent deals for All-Star-quality players to, but not beyond, their mid 30s is generally how far my comfort zone stretches, so this seems just right to me. I’d like to see more team options in response to player opt-outs like this.
Free agent deals for All-Star-quality players to, but not beyond, their mid 30s is generally how far my comfort zone stretches, so this seems just right to me. I’d like to see more team options in response to player opt-outs like this.
I love this deal. Flex your financial muscles on premium positions where there is an absolutely finite supply. Use your hustling resources to fill the outfield where there is a greater supply and more room for error.
* except for Pablo Sandoval. Fuck him and that deal.
* except for Pablo Sandoval. Fuck him and that deal.
FWIW: by the Baseball Trade Simulator (methodology here), here are the trade values of this offseason’s big bats at the deals they signed (in order of positive to negative value):
Correa: 15.2
Freeman: 2
Schwarber: 2
Canha: 0.8
Rizzo: 0
Taylor: -1.6
Marte: -5
Garcia: -5.9
Story: -7
Baez: -17.4
Semien: -21.9
Seager: -28.2
Castellanos: -33.7
Bryant: -76.4 (lmao)
So, Correa’s weird deal aside, the Story signing is on paper a far better value than the other shortstop contracts.
Correa: 15.2
Freeman: 2
Schwarber: 2
Canha: 0.8
Rizzo: 0
Taylor: -1.6
Marte: -5
Garcia: -5.9
Story: -7
Baez: -17.4
Semien: -21.9
Seager: -28.2
Castellanos: -33.7
Bryant: -76.4 (lmao)
So, Correa’s weird deal aside, the Story signing is on paper a far better value than the other shortstop contracts.
Yes and yes.
Others have complimented the seemingly very reasonable overall term but the former financial engineer in me loves the structure itself: it’s such a clever risk hedge that shares between the parties and I’m not aware of something implemented this way
Thumbs up emoji
A great middle infield glove that can rake at less than $25m per? Those players don’t grow on trees. This deal makes me happy happy.
It’s interesting/odd that the Sox can override Story’s opt out by adding just one year at a lower annual value than the rest of the deal. The better Story plays, the less value that opt out really has for him. (I’d have wanted a $25M/year add-on.).
It’s almost like he wants the team to have an incentive to keep him longer. Hey, maybe he really wants to be here!!
It’s almost like he wants the team to have an incentive to keep him longer. Hey, maybe he really wants to be here!!
Let's not forget the 20 SB last year. Hopefully Duran can make the team to give us at least 2 guys who can run.
I haven't been able to find any direct study of this, but someone must have looked into some version of it in some similar situation, but: how many more plays would we actually expect to be made with Story SS/Xander 2b as opposed to Xander SS/Story 2b. How many more balls are hit to SS than 2b, and how do we figure out the number either is likely to make? I'd bet the FO has a pretty specific model of this. I would also not be surprised if it turns out not to make as big of a difference as one might expect. Positioning matters too, which complicates it: Presumably Story can be shaded towards the middle more than normal against RHH to make up some for Xander's range.
So much for the idea, pedaled around since l'affaire Mookie, that John Henry won't spend. Looking forward to the CHB's next column.
A big benefit of this deal for Story is that he gets to play with a contender. So many previous big money deals have been given by desperate, often ill-run, teams that don't contend - viz the Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton and Alverado contracts and, possibly the new Correa and Bryant ones.
The Story deal is a prototype for what the Red Sox might offer to Xander this winter - 6 years at $140,000,000. They are the same age.
A big benefit of this deal for Story is that he gets to play with a contender. So many previous big money deals have been given by desperate, often ill-run, teams that don't contend - viz the Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton and Alverado contracts and, possibly the new Correa and Bryant ones.
The Story deal is a prototype for what the Red Sox might offer to Xander this winter - 6 years at $140,000,000. They are the same age.
I realize that his repeated struggles with control can be frustrating but I had no idea that Jose Alvarado’s arbitration raise from a million dollars was so onerous.
Love the signing - but as long as he can still play short - you'd have to think this sets up 2022 as the end of Xander's tenure in Boston.
I've always loved Xander but he is never going to be worth what he thinks he's worth because he simply isn't the defender that he thinks he is. And his Jeter-esque insistence to stick at short is really the nail in the coffin for his Boston career, even more so now that Story is on the team.
Honestly, I think it's pretty ridiculous that they are willing to cater to him this year - but there is no way (barring Story's arm falling off) that the team can commit to any future with him at SS past 2022. Story is a far, far better defender, and if the Sox don't see X in their longterm plans (which I'm guessing they don't) I'm not sure why Cora shouldn't just insist he move this season. I get that it would do some short-term damage to the clubhouse culture, but I also feel like X is not inherently, a trouble maker and while he'll be pissed initially, he'll eventually adjust and adapt. At this point, the worst case scenario (other than a catastrophic injury to Story) is probably signing X long-term with a promise to allow him to replicate what his idol did to the Yankees and decimate this team's defense at short throughout his 30s.
I've always loved Xander but he is never going to be worth what he thinks he's worth because he simply isn't the defender that he thinks he is. And his Jeter-esque insistence to stick at short is really the nail in the coffin for his Boston career, even more so now that Story is on the team.
Honestly, I think it's pretty ridiculous that they are willing to cater to him this year - but there is no way (barring Story's arm falling off) that the team can commit to any future with him at SS past 2022. Story is a far, far better defender, and if the Sox don't see X in their longterm plans (which I'm guessing they don't) I'm not sure why Cora shouldn't just insist he move this season. I get that it would do some short-term damage to the clubhouse culture, but I also feel like X is not inherently, a trouble maker and while he'll be pissed initially, he'll eventually adjust and adapt. At this point, the worst case scenario (other than a catastrophic injury to Story) is probably signing X long-term with a promise to allow him to replicate what his idol did to the Yankees and decimate this team's defense at short throughout his 30s.
What if Story signing here depended on Bogaerts being OK with it and Bogaerts being OK with it depended on him playing short?
Does it make more sense for the better defender to switch positions in this case? Im thinking Javier Baez moving around the infield for the Cubs when Russell was playing lots of short and Castro at 2nd. Baez was always the better SS but was athletic enough to play all over when it helped.
Because I’d be concerned with Xander moving to the other side of the base. Im aware the move from SS is down the spectrum, but the angles, coverage and footwork would all need adjustments.
He’s maybe not the best guy for the move to 2nd base. Third base on the other hand makes a ton of sense, as does LF. But he’ll make that decision next year.
Because I’d be concerned with Xander moving to the other side of the base. Im aware the move from SS is down the spectrum, but the angles, coverage and footwork would all need adjustments.
He’s maybe not the best guy for the move to 2nd base. Third base on the other hand makes a ton of sense, as does LF. But he’ll make that decision next year.
My bad - Nolan Arenado. Also, add Corey Seager to the list of long-term contracts given by noncompetitive teams.
I am having a fantasy where after Xander and Trevor work together for a lot of the season and get used to being DP partners, then maybe X has to miss a week or two and Story plays short, and everyone sees how good Story is there, and Xander volunteers to exchange positions. Like it’s one thing to be pushed aside by a new guy, but maybe it’s easier to switch roles with a teammate and partner you’re already comfortable with. Combine that with an extension for Xander at slightly higher AAV than Story and maybe we are all set until Mayer gets here.
I know it’s more likely Xander opts out and leaves after this year, and Story puts us in a good position for that. But a guy can dream.
I know it’s more likely Xander opts out and leaves after this year, and Story puts us in a good position for that. But a guy can dream.
Considering how little time we have till the start of the season, I guess that might make some sense. That said, I think the bigger concern is that Xander’s recent comments suggest he’s probably not willing to consider a change, and it doesn’t seem like that’s likely to change in a year. With Story now in the fold, under no circumstances should the Sox consider signing Xander long term unless he’s willing to move.