Trading Scorecard

Puffy · Jul 31, 2014

...don't forget Jonny Gomes!

Edit: I'm sorry, Jonny!

MiracleOfO2704 · Jul 31, 2014

And somehow, Peavy should be on the ledger, considering his return is.

brandonchristensen · Jul 31, 2014

Puffy said:
...don't forget Jonny Gomes!

FTFY

Savin Hillbilly · Jul 31, 2014

ivanvamp said:
Ok, it's tough to keep track of all this, so maybe one thread listing who the Sox have sent away and who they have gotten back might be helpful. Someone with more HTML skill than me possibly can translate this into a nice-looking chart?

Leaving
SP Felix Doubront
SP Jon Lester
SP John Lackey
SP Jake Peavy
OF Jonny Gomes

Arriving
RP Heath Hembree (25, RH reliever, AAA)
SP Edwin Escobar (22, LH starter, AAA)
OF Yoenis Cespedes (28, RH batter, MLB)
SP Joe Kelly (26, RH starter, MLB)
OF/1b Allen Craig (30, RH batter, MLB)
PTBNL from Cubs

rembrat · Jul 31, 2014

Jake Peavy as well.

edit: slow, please delete post

Hank Scorpio · Jul 31, 2014

Savin Hillbilly said:
Ok, it's tough to keep track of all this, so maybe one thread listing who the Sox have sent away and who they have gotten back might be helpful. Someone with more HTML skill than me possibly can translate this into a nice-looking chart?

Leaving
SP Felix Doubront
SP Jon Lester
SP John Lackey
SP Jake Peavy
OF Jonny Gomes

Arriving
RP Heath Hembree (25, RH reliever, AAA)
SP Edwin Escobar (22, LH starter, AAA)
OF Yoenis Cespedes (28, RH batter, MLB)
SP Joe Kelly (26, RH starter, MLB)
OF/1b Allen Craig (30, RH batter, MLB)
PTBNL from Cubs
Competitive Balance Pick from A's

Click to expand...

Detts · Jul 31, 2014

Hank Scorpio said:
Ok, it's tough to keep track of all this, so maybe one thread listing who the Sox have sent away and who they have gotten back might be helpful. Someone with more HTML skill than me possibly can translate this into a nice-looking chart?

Leaving
SP Felix Doubront
SP Jon Lester
SP John Lackey
SP Jake Peavy
OF Jonny Gomes
SP Corey Littrell A+

Arriving
RP Heath Hembree (25, RH reliever, AAA)
SP Edwin Escobar (22, LH starter, AAA)
OF Yoenis Cespedes (28, RH batter, MLB)
SP Joe Kelly (26, RH starter, MLB)
OF/1b Allen Craig (30, RH batter, MLB)
PTBNL from Cubs
Competitive Balance Pick from A's

Click to expand...

Rovin Romine · Jul 31, 2014

Thanks for doing this. At the end of the day (literally) I'm going to need a positional chart with batting splits and another with contract information to get my head around all this. Probably a depth chart by position as well. Don't we have something like 27 pitchers in AAA right now?

brandonchristensen · Jul 31, 2014

We have lost the Flying J's.

Granite Sox · Jul 31, 2014

ivanvamp said:
Jeez am I stupid or what? How did I forget to add Peavy and Gomes?

Answer: My oldest kid came in and showed me his college tuition bill. Holy crap. My mind is now mush.

Let me guess... 4/$70M? School/student option Year 5?

Toe Nash · Jul 31, 2014

There's also $1.75m to the Cardinals according to Passan, if that matters to us:

https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/494889906653900800

Dan to Theo to Ben · Jul 31, 2014

Does the 1.75 mean the price of Bud and Bud Light go down at the concessions stands for the next 14 months?

nvalvo · Jul 31, 2014

Edwin Escobar had a good start in Pawtucket, FWIW: 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 5 K, 1 BB.

Rovin Romine · Jul 31, 2014

BTW - Cots is pretty fast with the updates. Craig and Kelley and Cespedes are in there. https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz8qHiYrIzlFtVnly7gibjw&output=html

Craig looks like something of a money pit if he's not fixable. Great deal if he is fixable though.
Kelley is a FA in 2019. (Same as RDLR for perspective.)

$94 million in guaranteed contracts committed to 2015 thus far, not counting arb and expected ML minimum players. $22 million to 2016.

mauf · Jul 31, 2014

Toe Nash said:
There's also $1.75m to the Cardinals according to Passan, if that matters to us:

If that's the difference between Lackey's 2014 salary and Craig + Kelly, it shouldn't count for this purpose. Paying freight for the current year is the norm rather than the exception in deadline deals.

The Boomer · Jul 31, 2014

Rovin Romine said:
BTW - Cots is pretty fast with the updates. Craig and Kelley and Cespedes are in there. https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz8qHiYrIzlFtVnly7gibjw&output=html

Craig looks like something of a money pit if he's not fixable. Great deal if he is fixable though.
Kelley is a FA in 2019. (Same as RDLR for perspective.)

$94 million in guaranteed contracts committed to 2015 thus far, not counting arb and expected ML minimum players. $22 million to 2016.

I wasn't enamored about today's trades when first disclosed but I'm coming around. Clearly, top minor league prospects remain overvalued in the market or Cherington would have obtained some. The Sox did well to buy low on Escobar for Peavy. Escobar had to be close to untouchable after his good 2013 AA season. Clearly, Cherington is selling high on his limited lease rental pitchers but trying (though gambling) to buy low on proven major league regulars.

While Cespedes has a mediocre OBP, keep in mind that Billy Beane had him first. The old Moneyball approach was that the high OBP guys were undervalued. This is no longer true. Prospects were probably once greatly undervalued. This is no longer true either. There is probably an undisclosed market inefficiency (there would be no competitive advantage if they told us what it was) that they are pursuing. Mid-career guys signed to bargain contracts (assuming that they can approach their proven previous best performances) might be what they are after. Instead of gambling the last large part of $150 million in years 4-6 on Lester, it might be more efficient to gamble $10 million owed next year to Cespedes and the more than $40 million owed to Craig over the next 4 years. If either or both of them can replicate their 2012 seasons, they are huge bargains. If they provide even close to average major league performances, they will come close to earning their contracts. If they are both completely worthless, they have lost a lot less than what they could lose if Lester hurts his arm or otherwise declines in the first couple of years of what is looking more like it will be a top dollar 6 year signing.

If I am right about this new market inefficiency, then I like this return on the Lackey, Gomes and Lester rentals a lot more. Perhaps this is the new Moneyball approach. It explains why smart organizations like the A's and Cardinals signed Cespedes and Craig to their original contracts in the first place. Clearly, given their positions in their respective leagues right now, both the A's and the Cardinals perceive the huge value of their new pitching rentals (Lester and Lackey) in their GFIN situations. Both teams might be the odds on favorites to meet in the World Series at the end because they acted boldly today. On the other hand, rather than obtaining inherently risky minor league prospects, the Sox went after proven major league talent that was recently disappointing. However, with some tweaks, fixes and the right change of scenery, they must believe that both Cespedes and Craig have more seasons like 2012 in their futures.

TomRicardo · Jul 31, 2014

ivanvamp said:
Ok, it's tough to keep track of all this, so maybe one thread listing who the Sox have sent away and who they have gotten back might be helpful. Someone with more HTML skill than me possibly can translate this into a nice-looking chart?

Leaving
SP Felix Doubront
SP Jon Lester
SP John Lackey
SP Jake Peavy
OF Jonny Gomes

Arriving
RP Heath Hembree (25, RH reliever, AAA)
SP Edwin Escobar (22, LH starter, AAA)
OF Yoenis Cespedes (28, RH batter, MLB)
SP Joe Kelly (26, RH starter, MLB)
OF/1b Allen Craig (30, RH batter, MLB)

EDIT: I added Peavy and Gomes. Thanks for the corrections, guys.

As new guys get moved, people can feel free to cut and paste this list with the new guys added.

I am going guess to the PTNBL is Kevin Encarnacion.

This is a great haul. The basically lose Lester for 2 months and still get a pick. They get rid of Lackey before the option thing becomes an issue. Gomes was useless on a losing team as was Peavy and Doubront lost his SP.

They gave up a top line rental, a good rental, and a bag of balls and got two former All Star OFs, a promising MLB arm, and 3 decent prospects and a pick worth 800,000. I am not sure how you could want more.

I would take Cespedes and Craigs of the world a 1000X over than Piscottys.

Dan to Theo to Ben · Jul 31, 2014

By the way, this removes all 4 winning pitchers (2 Lester, 1 Lackey, 1 Doubront) from 2013 WS from roster. (But we get Craig back so net loss of 3)

The Boomer · Jul 31, 2014

You will need to update up top to incorporate Andrew Miller to the Orioles for age 21 at AA lefty pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez. He is a younger version of Escobar:

http://www.prospectd...spects-updated/

He would have been untouchable before he stalled (though still young) at a higher minor league level. Despite this disappointment, he was still recently rated as their #3 prospect according to the opinion at the link above. This just proves more that prospects are hugely overvalued in the market. Like Escobar, he fell out of pre-season top 100 lists based on his recent upper level stall.

This is the second Moneyball inefficiency. Obtain prospects (young for their level) who you can buy low during disappointing seasons following promising performances at lower levels that would have made them previously untouchable in the still too hyped up market for top prospects.

Curll · Jul 31, 2014

Overall, can't ask for a better haul for some FAs to be. Ben crushed this deadline.

mabrowndog · Jul 31, 2014

Corey Littrell, LHSP, A+ (Salem) is also leaving (in the Lackey trade to STL).

Savin Hillbilly · Jul 31, 2014

Detts said:
Ok, it's tough to keep track of all this, so maybe one thread listing who the Sox have sent away and who they have gotten back might be helpful. Someone with more HTML skill than me possibly can translate this into a nice-looking chart?

Leaving
SP Felix Doubront
SP Jon Lester
SP John Lackey
SP Jake Peavy
OF Jonny Gomes
SP Corey Littrell A+
RP Andrew Miller
SS Stephen Drew

Arriving
RP Heath Hembree (25, RH reliever, AAA)
SP Edwin Escobar (22, LH starter, AAA)
OF Yoenis Cespedes (28, RH batter, MLB)
SP Joe Kelly (26, RH starter, MLB)
OF/1b Allen Craig (30, RH batter, MLB)
SP Eduardo Rodriguez (21, LH starter, AA)
UT Kelly Johnson (32, LH batter, MLB)
PTBNL from Cubs
Competitive Balance Pick from A's

Click to expand...

I think that covers it....?

BeantownIdaho · Jul 31, 2014

Trades are always a wait and see scenario...this could be a great trade day or a horrible one. If Lester comes back I would consider this an A day. On paper as it stands now I would it give it a B/B+. We are now 10 feet deep in young pitching which might score us a great young outfielder.

strek1 · Jul 31, 2014

As the guys on NESN are saying there are as many (If not more) fans pissed in St Louis and Oakland about these Sox trades. So that must mean we're getting something good back.

mabrowndog · Jul 31, 2014

In the case of Cespedes, the A's just sent their cleanup hitter packing. Imagine what WEEI would sound like if the Sox were driving toward a pennant race in 2013 and decided to flip Napoli for a soon-to-be-free-agent pitcher.

Plympton91 · Jul 31, 2014

I think on balance it's an A, with a lot of weight to what I view as a startlingly good return for Peavy, that I like Joe Kelly, and that they got the compensation pick for Lester. We'll have to trust their scouts on Cespedes and especially Craig. The only thing that could be bad is Craig's contract, but they should have no trouble eating that if it becomes necessary.

If they end up resigning either Lester or Miller the grade goes to an A+

nvalvo · Jul 31, 2014

We now have something like 10 plausible SP prospects 25 and under, but in AA or higher: De la Rosa, Webster, Workman, Ranaudo, Barnes, Kelly (Oops! He's 26), Johnson, Owens, Escobar, and Rodriguez.

Oh, and Wright.

DeJesus Built My Hotrod · Jul 31, 2014

A big fat F. The Sox front office pooped in the bath and then threw the baby out with it. Joe Kelly? Methinks the team is trying to curry favor with a certain demographic in Boston.

The Sox FO completely misplayed their hand here. They ended up selling low and buying high while completely back on their heels. They grossly underestimated the market and misread the situation. They are like the board without Corsi. No direction and no information.

At least the Rays got someone who throws the baseball from the same side as the pitcher they were giving up.

And then the Sox had to give up Gomes and Lackey's cost controlled year too. Don't get me started on Drew? Kelly Johnson. I know people joke about two first names but I am thinking something else. Who names their son Kelly? Just sayin...

Its an F. Shame on you John Henry. Shame on you Stifl and Olly Cherrington. You and the rest of your clown-shoes baseball folks are going to ensure this team keeps falling short of its goal. But good luck selling all those Kelly jerseys.

foulkehampshire · Jul 31, 2014

DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
A big fat F. The Sox front office pooped in the bath and then threw the baby out with it. Joe Kelly? Methinks the team is trying to curry favor with a certain demographic in Boston.

The Sox FO completely misplayed their hand here. They ended up selling low and buying high while completely back on their heels. They grossly underestimated the market and misread the situation. They are like the board without Corsi. No direction and no information.

At least the Rays got someone who throws the baseball from the same side as the pitcher they were giving up.

And then the Sox had to give up Gomes and Lackey's cost controlled year too. Don't get me started on Drew? Kelly Johnson. I know people joke about two first names but I am thinking something else. Who names their son Kelly? Just sayin...

Its an F. Shame on you John Henry. Shame on you Stifl and Olly Cherrington. You and the rest of your clown-shoes baseball folks are going to ensure this team keeps falling short of its goal. But good luck selling all those Kelly jerseys.

Is this satire?

E5 Yaz · Jul 31, 2014

Can someone please do a quick explainer what a competitive balance pick is, and where it falls?

Red(s)HawksFan · Jul 31, 2014

E5 Yaz said:
Can someone please do a quick explainer what a competitive balance pick is, and where it falls?

Competitive balance picks are bonus picks awarded by lottery to 12 teams that are either in the bottom 10 in market size or bottom ten in revenue. Six picks come after round 1, six picks come after round 2.

The pick the Sox received from Oakland comes after round 2, and the slot money the pick comes with is estimated to be $800K.

DeJesus Built My Hotrod · Jul 31, 2014

Papelbon's Poutine said:
I think you've pretty much rode the joke into the ground. Good job, good effort. You're done for the day.

Oh I am not joking. And I am just getting started. Its amazing that you pick me with all of the unintentional drivel that is posted on this board, by a concentrated group of crap stirrers, trolls and spoiled children each and every day. We are now grading acquisitions in real time? With letter grades?

Well then I choose "F". If it all works out I will amend my grades accordingly. The only thing useful in this thread is Ivanamp's list, posts like RHF's above and some of the more data driven analysis. The rest is worthy of posts just like mine. "F"

E5 Yaz · Jul 31, 2014

Red(s)HawksFan said:
Competitive balance picks are bonus picks awarded by lottery to 12 teams that are either in the bottom 10 in market size or bottom ten in revenue. Six picks come after round 1, six picks come after round 2.

The pick the Sox received from Oakland comes after round 2, and the slot money the pick comes with is estimated to be $800K.

Many thanks

JMDurron · Jul 31, 2014

Taking all of the moves together, it looks like a pretty good haul. Thanks for making this thread, it's been hard to try to keep up with everything else. 4 more threads appear before I can finish reading the first one.

I think the early positive returns on the Peavy deal, along with all of the rumors of what the Red Sox were asking for in a Lester or Miller deal really skewed expectations high. I was certainly expecting a bigger haul for Lester based on the Peavy precedent, and maybe that was unrealistic of me. I think that Cespedes and Craig are both trending in the wrong direction, but I'm hopeful that the Red Sox scouts have a good handle on what they are likely to do going forward.

Objectively, there's not much to complain about, adding some OF with significant power potential and an obvious Doubront replacement, either in the rotation or the bullpen. Emotionally, today sucks ass for me, because nobody who is coming back strikes me as being worth losing Jon Lester, due to Craig's injury concerns and Cespedes being a rental for 2015 only. I know that's irrational, since Lester was himself a homegrown rental for only 2 months at this point, but that's how it feels. The good news is that I think it really closes the emotional book on the 2014 shitshow of a season for the Red Sox, and the auditions for 2015 have officially begun.

The Boomer · Jul 31, 2014

JMDurron said:
Taking all of the moves together, it looks like a pretty good haul. Thanks for making this thread, it's been hard to try to keep up with everything else. 4 more threads appear before I can finish reading the first one.

I think the early positive returns on the Peavy deal, along with all of the rumors of what the Red Sox were asking for in a Lester or Miller deal really skewed expectations high. I was certainly expecting a bigger haul for Lester based on the Peavy precedent, and maybe that was unrealistic of me. I think that Cespedes and Craig are both trending in the wrong direction, but I'm hopeful that the Red Sox scouts have a good handle on what they are likely to do going forward.

Objectively, there's not much to complain about, adding some OF with significant power potential and an obvious Doubront replacement, either in the rotation or the bullpen. Emotionally, today sucks ass for me, because nobody who is coming back strikes me as being worth losing Jon Lester, due to Craig's injury concerns and Cespedes being a rental for 2015 only. I know that's irrational, since Lester was himself a homegrown rental for only 2 months at this point, but that's how it feels. The good news is that I think it really closes the emotional book on the 2014 shitshow of a season for the Red Sox, and the auditions for 2015 have officially begun.

One man's positive analysis of today's moves:

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/07/boston-red-sox-trade-deadline-winners-mlb-2014

Frank Castillo · Jul 31, 2014

By the deadline, the Red Sox traded pitchers who had made a combined 72 starts this season. I wonder if that's a record.

Ferm Sheller · Jul 31, 2014

Frank Castillo said:
By the deadline, the Red Sox traded pitchers who had made a combined 72 starts this season. I wonder if that's a record.

Absolutely no doubt in my mind it is.

bosockboy · Jul 31, 2014

This will be a monster Hot Stove for the Sox.

leftfieldlegacy · Jul 31, 2014

Red(s)HawksFan said:
Competitive balance picks are bonus picks awarded by lottery to 12 teams that are either in the bottom 10 in market size or bottom ten in revenue. Six picks come after round 1, six picks come after round 2.

The pick the Sox received from Oakland comes after round 2, and the slot money the pick comes with is estimated to be $800K.

This was helpful. Thanks.
Forbes has Oakland as the 5th lowest revenue team for 2013. What happens to the pick if the A's revenue increases significantly because they are in GFIN mode, or if one of the teams currently at #'s 11-15 tank and move Oakland out of the bottom 10?
http://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/

Curtis Pride · Jul 31, 2014

With the Punto Trade and this week's overhaul, the Red Sox now have just 7 players from the 2012 team:

David Ortiz
Dustin Pedroia
Daniel Nava
Will Middlebrooks
Clay Buchholz
Junichi Tazawa
Craig Breslow

That's a lot of turnover in the last two years.

ookami7m · Jul 31, 2014

leftfieldlegacy said:
This was helpful. Thanks.
Forbes has Oakland as the 5th lowest revenue team for 2013. What happens to the pick if the A's revenue increases significantly because they are in GFIN mode, or if one of the teams currently at #'s 11-15 tank and move Oakland out of the bottom 10?
http://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/

The picks were lottery drawn and assigned already. A change in revenue or market size won't affect this upcoming set of picks

Granite Sox · Aug 1, 2014

I know it's probably just a weird and natural artifact of the whole buyer/seller process, but the end result of most of the trades suggests that, if they had to go, the Sox put their veteran pitchers into pretty good (professional) circumstances.

Lester and Miller (and Gomes) go to first-place teams
Lackey and Peavey go to second-place teams with strong odds of making the playoffs

Doubront and Drew were thrown away, basically due to ineffectiveness.

Master of the Obvious? Perhaps. It still kind of sucks, but it's a (random?) touch of class by Ben et al that the ex-pats are put in a position to go deep in the playoffs while the Sox received returns that fit their desires.

soxfan121 · Aug 1, 2014

Curtis Pride said:
With the Punto Trade and this week's overhaul, the Red Sox now have just 7 players from the 2012 team:

David Ortiz
Dustin Pedroia
Daniel Nava
Will Middlebrooks
Clay Buchholz
Junichi Tazawa
Craig Breslow

That's a lot of turnover in the last two years.

And it could be three by spring training.

Trading Scorecard

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