Trading Jon Lester (news and speculation thread)

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Snodgrass'Muff

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foulkehampshire said:
 
Better be Bell & Austin Meadows
 
Lester and Lackey for Bell and Meadows? Or Lester for Bell and Meadows? I don't think there's any chance Lester is bringing back both alone. Add in Miller and a lottery ticket prospect or two, and yeah, we're getting into believable territory, but Lester isn't pulling two top 50 prospects by himself.
 

foulkehampshire

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StuckOnYouk said:
It seems that the sox plan is to add a ton of prospects to their own large cache, then suck so bad to guarantee an awful record to protect their hides in the free agent market, then get a great pick in the draft.
Hey if we aren't goin to win a World Series lets go balls to the wall to create a chance for future rings.
 
I'd rather the team guarantee a good draft position than wallow in mediocrity. Either way, they're not competing this season.
 

ivanvamp

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StuckOnYouk said:
It seems that the sox plan is to add a ton of prospects to their own large cache, then suck so bad to guarantee an awful record to protect their hides in the free agent market, then get a great pick in the draft.
Hey if we aren't goin to win a World Series lets go balls to the wall to create a chance for future rings.
 
If they keep Lackey and re-sign Lester, given the talent they have making its way through the system, I'd say they already have a "chance for future rings".  
 
Alas….
 

foulkehampshire

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
 
Lester and Lackey for Bell and Meadows? Or Lester for Bell and Meadows? I don't think there's any chance Lester is bringing back both alone. Add in Miller and a lottery ticket prospect or two, and yeah, we're getting into believable territory, but Lester isn't pulling two top 50 prospects by himself.
 
Lester & Lackey & Miller + 
 
Why not?
 

DaubachmanTurnerOD

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bosockboy said:
 
Yes but the price goes way down.  You're buying two pennant races and/or postseasons right now.
I think that is not typically the case. Because there are many more suitors in the offseason (hope abounds, and all that!) the relative prices go up. Dave Cameron talks about this at Fangraphs a lot.
 

amfox1

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Vegas Sox Fan said:
It will be interesting because if I'm the Red Sox I want to send Lester to Pittsburgh because I would assume an extension will be tough for them to pull off. However if I'm Pittsburgh I'd be more interested in Lackey since that option gives me leverage to get an cheap extension done. 
 
Trade Lester to STL for a Piscotty/Kaminsky/lottery ticket package.  Then trade Lackey to PIT for a top pitching prospect (Glasnow/Kingham) and a bat (Meadows/Hanson /Ramirez), given that he's cost-controlled next year.   If you trade Lester early enough, you might get teams like MIA (Yelich is a guy Ben covets) and CLE in on Lackey, given the low $ cost.
 

gammoseditor

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DaubachmanTurnerOD said:
I think that is not typically the case. Because there are many more suitors in the offseason (hope abounds, and all that!) the relative prices go up. Dave Cameron talks about this at Fangraphs a lot.
 
I'm not sure what Dave Cameron argues, and I usually think he's right, but I don't agree with this at all.  Not only is it an extra year now, but in the offseason teams can sign free agents while only giving up money.  That's not an option right now.  I think the second wild card also makes the return higher now.  There are far less sellers than there used to be and more buyers. 
 

LondonSox

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Yeah I don't agree there either, the concept is sound but flawed. There are fewer teams as buyers, but they know their needs and the value of 1 win (and preventing your opponent getting that 1 win) is a lot bigger now than at season open.
 
I can remember far more "heist" deals on the deadline than offseason. Nearly all the "they paid what!?!" are from deadline deals.
Or the dodgers red sox deal via waivers, I guess counts too
 

The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

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StuckOnYouk said:
It seems that the sox plan is to add a ton of prospects to their own large cache, then suck so bad to guarantee an awful record to protect their hides in the free agent market, then get a great pick in the draft.
Hey if we aren't goin to win a World Series lets go balls to the wall to create a chance for future rings.
 
Ben needs to show Danny Ainge how to tank properly.
 

hitatater

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Corsi said:
 
Edes on SportsCenter:
 
  • Price currently pitching for Rays, which suggests they're holding onto him.  Makes Lester most attractive starting pitcher on market.
  • Being scratched makes it inevitable he'll be traded
  • Six teams still in it for Lester
  • Pirates, Cardinals, Dodgers most likely landing places
  • Red Sox want "a king's ransom" for Lester -- at least 2 top prospects
  • Was told they're using Cubs/A's Samardzija trade as a "template"
 
 
Doesn't this mean the Yankees are about to trade for him?  That's their MO, right? 
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Latest from MLBTR:
 
 
The Marlins aren’t entirely out of the Lester sweepstakes, an AL executive familiar with the negotiations tells Juan C. Rodriguez of the Miami Sun-Sentinel. However, the Marlins won’t part with top prospect Andrew Heaney in a Lester deal (or a deal for any rental player).
 
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/jon-lester-rumors-wednesday.html
 
This doesn't seem to make sense. They're just 5 games out, but with two teams in front of them and very little chance of the wild card. They have a 5.4% chance of making the playoffs and an 0.1% chance of winning the WS according to FG. Why would a low-payroll team give up cost-controlled talent to turn "prohibitively unlikely" into "highly unlikely"?
 

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Savin Hillbilly said:
Latest from MLBTR:
 
 
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/jon-lester-rumors-wednesday.html
 
This doesn't seem to make sense. They're just 5 games out, but with two teams in front of them and very little chance of the wild card. They have a 5.4% chance of making the playoffs and an 0.1% chance of winning the WS according to FG. Why would a low-payroll team give up cost-controlled talent to turn "prohibitively unlikely" into "highly unlikely"?
 
The Marlins benefit from every mention in the papers they can get in order to remind people they exist.
 

The Boomer

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Savin Hillbilly said:
Latest from MLBTR:
 
 
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/jon-lester-rumors-wednesday.html
 
This doesn't seem to make sense. They're just 5 games out, but with two teams in front of them and very little chance of the wild card. They have a 5.4% chance of making the playoffs and an 0.1% chance of winning the WS according to FG. Why would a low-payroll team give up cost-controlled talent to turn "prohibitively unlikely" into "highly unlikely"?
 
If it's just Lester, this is right.  However, if you made it Lester, Barnes and Middlebrooks or their equivalents for something like Heaney and Marisnick, this might make sense for both teams. 
 

Cesar Crespo

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Listening to the radio so no source but Rosenthal is saying a trade to the Pirates is going to happen.

edit: fake account fooled them. Not real.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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bosox79 said:
Listening to the radio so no source but Rosenthal is saying a trade to the Pirates is going to happen.
 
That's a fake Rosenthal account.  Haggerty retweeted it and it appears to be picking up steam.  Total garbage at this point.
 

Corsi

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bosox79 said:
Listening to the radio so no source but Rosenthal is saying a trade to the Pirates is going to happen.
 
I think whatever station you're listening to got fooled by the fake Rosenthal account.
 

BoSoxFink

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bosox79 said:
Listening to the radio so no source but Rosenthal is saying a trade to the Pirates is going to happen.
that was a fake account from what I am hearing. Haggerty retweeted a fake account
 

SouthernBoSox

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bosox79 said:
Listening to the radio so no source but Rosenthal is saying a trade to the Pirates is going to happen.
I've been thinking it's gonna be the Pirates the entire time.
 
No other organization has the need to win now and the pieces as well.
 
Edit: And I still feel it will be the Pirates...
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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This is the tweet that Haggerty retweeted.  Note that the owner of the account has already changed his name from Ken Rosenthal to Ken Martsolf.
 
https://twitter.com/TheKennyM/status/494534435065585667
 
And subsequent tweets from the dink...
 
https://twitter.com/TheKennyM/status/494535938434162688
 
 
The twitterverse is useful but dangerous.
 

pokey_reese

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Who is this?
 
 
Comment From My friend is a jerk   Interesting question for you: Would you trade Mookie Betts straight up for Oscar Taveras? I said I would, but it's a lot closer than I originally thought.
 

 



 

Dave Cameron: 
I'd rather have Betts.
 

Dewy4PrezII

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The Pirates really do make too much sense.  They haven't finished in 1st in their division since 1992 and aside from last year they hadn't finished over 500 since 1992.  But last year they made the wild card and this year they are just 1 game back of  Milwaukee with St. Louis breathing down their neck, but St. Louis has injuries to deal with.  Because of their success last year they had a significant jump in attendance and they are tracking for another significant bump, meaning they are finally becoming relevant in a city that has been focused on the Steelers and Penguins for two decades.  Getting a pitcher with Lester's history and post season experience could be the difference between missing the playoffs and slipping down in the relevancy poles in the small market city or making a run in the playoffs and if all goes well in the roll of the dice coming home with a world series.
 
That, in addition to the fact that they have a surplus of outfielder propsects, which by all accounts, is what Boston wants in order to trade Lester
 

mauidano

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Good pitching is SO hard to find, especially an ace caliber guy and we can't get rid of our two best quick enough. I don't see anyone really talking about getting any quality strong pitchers in return. We will have gaping holes in our rotation for some time to come. Not liking it.
 

LondonSox

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I have some sympathy for that view too, I will take the BB>K and XBH>K as the golden gods of prospect watching.
There are not a lot of prospects who do that and don't pan out.
 
The huge power huge K guys (Gallo.... ahem) those people dream on, but they flame out a LOT
 

Pilgrim

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I disagree with Cameron that Tavares is overrated. There are other prospects that have put up bigger numbers, and have the same power and defense potential combo that he has, but those guys are all striking out 20%+. Tavares' k rate was 11% in AAA. He was fairly low bust potential, and his upside is as big as anyone.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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pokey_reese said:
Nice work.  He ended up putting up a piece right after about why he thinks Taveras is over-rated and has a good chance of being a bust (relative to the hype).
 
link:http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/when-im-a-bit-of-an-oscar-taveras-skeptic/
He very well could be. He could also be the next great outfielder. The thing is that with Taveras there really is no middle ground. He's either going to make a ton of all star teams or bust. Mookie is an infielder by trade and now has position versatility under his belt. I wouldn't say it's a slap in the face or a stretch to say Mookie is better. He gets on base at a higher clip that's for sure. I would still rate Oscar higher because of what he can do with the bat. Very few prospects have that raw talent. You're blessed if you have either one in your organization.
 

brandonchristensen

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mauidano said:
Good pitching is SO hard to find, especially an ace caliber guy and we can't get rid of our two best quick enough. I don't see anyone really talking about getting any quality strong pitchers in return. We will have gaping holes in our rotation for some time to come. Not liking it.
This is true, but I think that we need to shore up our lineup first. Lester and Lackey and everyone else can pitch like studs, but when we only score 1-2 runs a game (seemingly) it doesn't matter.
 
It would be awesome if we could buy him back at the end of the year, though. None of this would be happening if almost every offensive player didn't shit the bed.
 

maxotaur

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JimBoSox9 said:
There have been aboot 60 posts in this thread since I went to bed last night.  What the hell is wrong with you people?
 
 
 
Here, Let Me Google That For You.
 
Spoiler Alert: 186,000 hits.  NESN, MLBTradeRumors, etc
 
Double Spoiler Alert: the Red Sox are almost definitely pursuing a plan of clearing their high-minors logjam by dumping a bunch for a plus-plus player, and Stanton's on that short list.
Wow, 186,000 hits? Type in say...."my cat is God" and see what that yields. You're seriously counting bloggers like the Marlin Maniac as a source? The only semblance of legitimacy is John Heyman (your cited mlb.trade rumors) who writes "takes a bit more supposition" (i.e. - he's speculating out his ass).

I was talking actual reality.
 

j44thor

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mauidano said:
Good pitching is SO hard to find, especially an ace caliber guy and we can't get rid of our two best quick enough. I don't see anyone really talking about getting any quality strong pitchers in return. We will have gaping holes in our rotation for some time to come. Not liking it.
 
I agree which is why I'm really surprised we have not heard SEA mentioned at all.  Lester is from there and a King Felix/Lester combo would be death in a short series.  They have the ultimate piece in Tujan Walker and would likely have a good shot at resigning Lester so they could afford to part with him.  Perhaps Lester alone doesn't get it done but Lester plus Miller for Walker might be interesting.  
 

seantoo

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Rudy Pemberton said:
If all of these NL Central teams are primarily interested in keeping Lester away from their competitors (as opposed to paying what it takes to get him), to what extent can they engage Ben just to kill the clock? Pirates, for example, would surely love Lester but are realistic about how much he really helps their chances. That being said, they don't want him to end up on the Cardinals. Do teams ever just keep the dialogue going with the hope that the clock runs out and Lester (or someone similar) stays put? Not necessarily the most ethical move and not something you can pull more than once or twice, but curious if it happens.
It happens, I work in construction with competitive bids, and it happens. 
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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mauidano said:
Good pitching is SO hard to find, especially an ace caliber guy and we can't get rid of our two best quick enough. I don't see anyone really talking about getting any quality strong pitchers in return. We will have gaping holes in our rotation for some time to come. Not liking it.
 
Would you consider it more difficult to construct a playoff caliber rotation or a top of the league lineup? Given the decline in offense over the last few seasons, I'm starting to think that building a dominant offense might be more difficult, especially if we're talking long term.
 

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LondonSox said:
I have some sympathy for that view too, I will take the BB>K and XBH>K as the golden gods of prospect watching.
There are not a lot of prospects who do that and don't pan out.
 
The huge power huge K guys (Gallo.... ahem) those people dream on, but they flame out a LOT
This is why I love Betts. I know you do, too.
 

nattysez

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Uh oh. Masterson to Cards (so Cards presumably are out of the Lester running, but maybe this motivates the Brewers/Pirates to get a deal done).
 
https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/494544422940712960
 

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nattysez said:
Uh oh. Masterson to Cards (so Cards presumably are out of the Lester running, but maybe this motivates the Brewers/Pirates to get a deal done).
 
https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/494544422940712960
 
For James Ramsey it looks like:
 
https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/494544699844476928
 

Bongorific

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The Pirates match up well particularly if the FO has interest in signing Lester as a FA.

If that were the case, hypothetically, they would be renting Lester for a collection of prospects at the likely price of needing to sign Lester to closer to a market deal this offseason (135 - 160 million) than signing him to a team friendly deal last offseason (125-150).

So, hypothetically, would the cost controlled prospects netted in return be worth that difference in cost? Likely, yes.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Welp Cards just acquired Masterson for James Ramsey. They're out. Anyone but the Brewers please. They have nothing in that system I want.
 

Corsi

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This is good news when a pitcher with a 5.51 ERA fetches a good prospect.
 

DJnVa

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Tyrone Biggums said:
Welp Cards just acquired Masterson for James Ramsey. They're out.
 
They may have already been out, and moved onto Masterson. At some point it stops being 4 teams bidding and 2 teams hammering out the details.
 

wibi

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seantoo said:
It happens, I work in construction with competitive bids, and it happens. 
 
Nope.  Not even in the same country let alone the same state ...
 

Hee Sox Choi

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Corsi said:
This is good news when a pitcher with a 5.51 ERA fetches a good prospect.
 
Masterson this season: 4.05 xFIP, 4.08 FIP, .350 BABIP.  Has had some injuries this year.  If healthy, he'll most likely pitch much better.
 
I wouldn't call James Ramsey a good prospect.  Fair, more like it.  He's 24, in AA and has a high .364 BABIP.  From Sickels pre-season:
 
11) James Ramsey, OF, Grade C+: Florida State product draws raves for work ethic/makeup, most scouts seem to like him a lot despite mediocre physical tools. Hit .251/.356/.424 with 15 homers in Double-A last year, drew 53 walks but whiffed 108 times which was more than expected. For me he profiles as a solid fourth outfielder.
 
He's hitting .300 / .389 / .527 in AA but that's with a .364 BABIP.  If you normalize that, he's on pace to do what he did the year before but with more power.  Good trade for the Cards IF Masterson is healthy.  
 

Corsi

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SouthernBoSox said:
It isn't good news when you lose a potential partner.
 
For all we know they moved onto Masterson because someone else beat them for Lester.
 

DJnVa

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Corsi said:
This is good news when a pitcher with a 5.51 ERA fetches a good prospect.
 
Eh, he'll turn 25 later this year and is in AA, although he's having a good year. Had we even heard him in the possibilities for Lester?
 

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Cleveland is a half game behind Tampa, and a half game closer to first place than Tampa, yet they're selling and Tampa is keeping Price.  Interesting.
 

DJnVa

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glennhoffmania said:
Cleveland is a half game behind Tampa, and a half game closer to first place than Tampa, yet they're selling and Tampa is keeping Price.  Interesting.
 
Price has another year on his deal though. That changes the calculus a bit.
 
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