Trading Jon Lester (news and speculation thread)

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Stan Papi Was Framed

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Rovin Romine said:
 
I understand what you're saying.  Following any franchise involves emotional highs and lows.  The question is will it hurt the franchise in the long run?  I can't imagine that it would.   Will it alienate people to the point where they don't follow the Sox next year?  Again, I can't imagine that it would.  
 
Not to rehash all the points made thus far, but if a Lester trade now is in the Sox's best interest, it should be made.   If signing Lester is in the Sox's best interest, he should be signed.  We can't debate the merits of either because we're not privy to all the information the Sox are privy to.  In the future, we can look back and judge if the approach/deal worked out or not, but we'll never really know whether it was a wise decision at this point in time. 
all makes sense.  It's just hard to digest right now.  Simply put, it will be painful to lose Lester, even if it's the best thing to do.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Buzzkill Pauley said:
He's had 56 plate appearances in AA.
 
A switch-hitter who projects power and managed the 4th-highest OPS in the Florida League at age 21...well, that seems like exactly the sort of prospect the Sox need.  If he can't be used to acquire Stanton before 2016, maybe he can play in front of the Monster himself by then.
I mentioned it was a small sample but a sub .600 OPS in 56 PAs jumping from high A to AA is still pretty crappy for a kid who's supposed to be a top prospect because of his bat.
 

MakMan44

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
Taveras has had
 
a 191 wRC+ as a 19-year-old in high-A
a 159 wRC+ as a 20-year-old in double-A
a 109 wRC+ as a 21-year-old in triple-A
a 123 wRC+ as a 22-year-old in triple-A
 
meanwhile, Betts has had
 
a 160 wRC+ as a 20-year-old in A
a 166 wRC+ as a 20-year-old in high-A
a 175 wRC+ as a 21-year-old in double-A
a 144 wRC+ as a 21-year-old in triple-A
 
So I don't see why it shouldn't be a serious question. I know Taveras is a much bigger deal in the eyes of the scouting community, but I think it's reasonable to ask whether they might have missed something with Betts, or overhyped Taveras a tad, based on the results so far.
Well, I went back and edited my post. It is worth mentioning that Taveras was injured most of last season, and certainly has the higher ceiling than Betts. I don't think anyone has missed anything with Betts though, he'd be something like a top 20 prospect on most midseason lists. 
 
EDIT: I'll be honest and say that those numbers are indeed convincing and it's not like Taveras doesn't have problems. I've read several times that some scouts don't like his work ethic. Still, at the end of the day I think I'd still rather have Taveras than Betts. Apologies to Rovin though, he's right to bring up the question. 
 

rembrat

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Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
I don't see the big deal with Bell. His numbers are underwhelming and he profiles as an above average prospect. He's still at least two years away. I would hope the Sox are looking to get something better than that.
 
I'm with you. It would be a huge fail to get back two kids (21, 19) for an ace like Lester. I'm having flashbacks to the package Johan Santana fetched.
 

Stan Papi Was Framed

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Average Reds said:
 
Are we at the point where Pete Abraham tweeting self-serving conclusions based on his email traffic is considered interesting?
sorry, I can understand the reaction to him.  His tweet caught my attention because it reflects what I feel.  But, as I have noted elsewhere it is certainly an emotional, rather than a rational, reaction to feel pain when thinking about the likelihood of losing Lester.  As others have noted, it is likely impossible for us to know whether trading Lester is the best move--we don't have all the information that the front office has.  My main reaction right now is simply that it is painful to think about Lester being somewhere else, and I suspect others feel that way too, whether or not it makes sense.
 

MakMan44

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Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
I mentioned it was a small sample but a sub .600 OPS in 56 PAs jumping from high A to AA is still pretty crappy for a kid who's supposed to be a top prospect because of his bat.
Can't we say the same thing about our Bell? As another example, people were all over Javier Baez when he started the season extremely slow and he's putting up an OPS over 1 for the month. Sometimes players take time to adjust, and it should be the last reason to not pull off a deal. 
 

DJnVa

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John Marzano Olympic Hero said:
 
You recognize hyperbole when you read it, right?
 
I understand rationally why the Red Sox "have" to do this, but I'm not happy about it. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people on this board feel the same way.
 
Yeah. I'm not happy about losing Lester. No one is. But I think the problem is a lot of people can't separate that from the fact there are reasons this has to be done. If you accept that he's gone, happy or not, you can then get excited about the possibilities.
 

foulkehampshire

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twibnotes said:
Isn't Bell also more Will Middlebrooks than Kevin Youkilis in terms of approach?
 
He doesn't really strike out that much.
 
2013 K%: 17% (A)
2014 K% 11% (A+)
2014 K%: 16.1% (AA - 13 games)
 

Stan Papi Was Framed

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Laschelle Tarver said:
Very true.  I guess them winning in 2013 and recovering from depths of 2012 makes me feel that they can overcome any negative perception here too. I want them to display the discipline to have an approach and stick to it, even if it at times it means losing a player I don't want them to like Lester.  And, if they're going to lose him at the end of the year, the right move is to maxmize the return they can get on him.  They will never have more leverage in that regard than right now. 
everything you say makes sense, and some of this has gone thru my head too.  as we get closer to seeing Lester gone, though, it is more and more difficult.  much worse than with Ellsbury.  It annoyed me that Ellsbury was going to NY, but I certainly understood the reasons for letting him go, and they made sense to me then as they do now.  Losing Lester is a lot harder.  but you're right, it may well make sense with regard to Lester too,
 

Curll

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Stan Papi Was Framed said:
sorry, I can understand the reaction to him.  His tweet caught my attention because it reflects what I feel.  But, as I have noted elsewhere it is certainly an emotional, rather than a rational, reaction to feel pain when thinking about the likelihood of losing Lester.  As others have noted, it is likely impossible for us to know whether trading Lester is the best move--we don't have all the information that the front office has.  My main reaction right now is simply that it is painful to think about Lester being somewhere else, and I suspect others feel that way too, whether or not it makes sense.
 
I know you prefaced with it being emotional rather than rational, but painful to see Lester go? If anything, you should be thrilled.
 
He gets to go to a contender, make max money in FA, he won TWO WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS with the Red Sox, and his trade will bring back a tremendous value for the organization.
 
You should be thrilled for Jon, the Red Sox, and as a fan. This is a win-win-win during an otherwise disappointing season.
 

Bongorific

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rembrat said:
 
I'm with you. It would be a huge fail to get back two kids (21, 19) for an ace like Lester. I'm having flashbacks to the package Johan Santana fetched.
The one that included 9 win player Carlos Gomez?
 

TomRicardo

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Rovin Romine said:
 
God no.
 
People really need to stop looking directly at the rankings.  The rankings get biased towards Latin American position players and away from college position players.  This is because talent scouts see guys who get signed at 16 a lot longer and they are far more projectable.  Taveras was the #23 prospect in baseball before Betts at 5 professional ABs.  
 
Taveras has a much better bat and more power but Betts has way more plate discipline and is much better on the base paths. Probably they are around equal or Taveras is a bit better on the field at RF though Betts will probably end up with a better arm and range.  Betts is a far superior 2B than Taveras is a CF.
 
Taveras has ridiculous Nomaresque batting skills where Betts has versatility and great speed and good plate discipline.  
 

Stan Papi Was Framed

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Curll said:
 
I know you prefaced with it being emotional rather than rational, but painful to see Lester go? If anything, you should be thrilled.
 
He gets to go to a contender, make max money in FA, he won TWO WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS with the Red Sox, and his trade will bring back a tremendous value for the organization.
 
You should be thrilled for Jon, the Red Sox, and as a fan. This is a win-win-win during an otherwise disappointing season.
it's painful to me to consider that he may not be in a Red Sox uniform any longer, yes.  When you follow a player for a number of years, youcan develop an attachment...
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
I mentioned it was a small sample but a sub .600 OPS in 56 PAs jumping from high A to AA is still pretty crappy for a kid who's supposed to be a top prospect because of his bat.
 
It's not crappy, it's meaningless.
 
How much did Will Middlebrooks' .468 OPS in AAA mean to either his production the next season, or to his status as the Sox #1 prospect leading into it?
 

TomRicardo

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bosockboy said:
Piscotty is a RH Trot Nixon I'd say. Not a star but a valuable player.
 
Piscotty has less power than Trot Nixon but can hit lefties and righties.  He is a poor man's JBJ.  Probably a better fielding Daniel Nava.
 
Edit - Nava has better plate discpline
 

rembrat

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Bongorific said:
The one that included 9 win player Carlos Gomez?
 
What did the Twins get back for Johan? Gomez developed into a star for the Brewers not the Twins. And I'm not entirely sure Gomez isn't chemically enhanced at the moment but that's an entirely different discussion. 
 

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The Rays are 29-12 over their last 41 games.  David Price is not getting traded.  The only reason his name is out there is to help teams negotiate for Lester. 
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Buzzkill Pauley said:
It's not crappy, it's meaningless.
 
How much did Will Middlebrooks' .468 OPS in AAA mean to either his production the next season, or to his status as the Sox #1 prospect leading into it?
The jump from high A to AA is a lot different than the jump from AA to AAA.
 

TomRicardo

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The Allented Mr Ripley said:
No it isn't. AA is where the wheat gets separated from the chaff.
 
 
Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
The jump from high A to AA is a lot different than the jump from AA to AAA.
 
 
I fail to see how you two are saying different things.
 
That said looking at 56 PA of any hitter as indicative of their future results is a little ridiculous
 

j44thor

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rembrat said:
 
What did the Twins get back for Johan? Gomez developed into a star for the Brewers not the Twins. And I'm not entirely sure Gomez isn't chemically enhanced at the moment but that's an entirely different discussion. 
 
More importantly what offer did the Sox have for Santana?  IIRC Lester and Ellsbury were both on the table though I could be wrong.  If BOS ends up with a package anywhere close to that it would be a huge win.
 

ivanvamp

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gammoseditor said:
The Rays are 29-12 over their last 41 games.  David Price is not getting traded.  The only reason his name is out there is to help teams negotiate for Lester. 
 
That, by the way, is the kind of run we all wanted this Sox team to make to get back into the race.  Unfortunately, it never materialized.
 

Curll

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ivanvamp said:
 
That, by the way, is the kind of run we all wanted this Sox team to make to get back into the race.  Unfortunately, it never materialized.
It would be bizarre, but imagine TB trading for Lester and winning the WS. 
 

rembrat

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j44thor said:
 
More importantly what offer did the Sox have for Santana?  IIRC Lester and Ellsbury were both on the table though I could be wrong.  If BOS ends up with a package anywhere close to that it would be a huge win.
 
You are wrong. The Twins wanted both Ellsbury and Lester in the same package while the Sox offered them in separate packages and then Farrell went to bat for Lester and the rest is history.
 

ivanvamp

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Curll said:
It would be bizarre, but imagine TB trading for Lester and winning the WS. 
 
They could easily afford to do it, if they viewed him as a three month rental only.  But would a WS be enough for them to give up a top prospect or two?  I doubt it.  Though maybe the Sox could restock them with Doubront, etc.
 

snowmanny

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Laschelle Tarver said:
 It's a disaster if they make any decisions based on any kind of "disgusted" emails Peter Abraham is receiving.  Lester has never been better, and
the team is in last place because of other glaring holes that Lester being at what is his absolute peak value can help them to address.  I admire that Cherington is able to take the long view on
this and hopefully acquire more pieces to add to the longer term foundation.
You are assuming that this is Cherington's decision.
I
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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TomRicardo said:
I fail to see how you two are saying different things.
 
That said looking at 56 PA of any hitter as indicative of their future results is a little ridiculous
In regards to Bell, I never said it was going to project forward. It just looks like he's going to need more time than originally thought. Some reports had him possibly contributing next year. I don't see it.
 

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TomRicardo said:
 
Piscotty has less power than Trot Nixon but can hit lefties and righties.  He is a poor man's JBJ.  Probably a better fielding Daniel Nava.
 
Edit - Nava has better plate discpline
 
Nixon is the better analogy IMO.  Or peak Marlon Byrd.  Teens HR power, good average, good OBP, average-or-better defense.  2.5 WAR player.  Valuable guy but not a star.
 

j44thor

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rembrat said:
 
You are wrong. The Twins wanted both Ellsbury and Lester in the same package while the Sox offered them in separate packages and then Farrell went to bat for Lester and the rest is history.
 
Ok, the Sox offered either or plus multiple other pieces (rumored to include Lowrie, Masterson, others) for Santana.
If we could get either an Ellsbury or Lester for 6 cost controlled years we wouldn't need the other pieces to come out way, way ahead on the deal.
 

InsideTheParker

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Sorry if this has already been noted, but I have seen at various times speculation about Price being traded and the possible impact on any Lester trade.. 
Price is pitching now against Milwaukee.
 

ivanvamp

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It's kind of amazing - I think Tampa's recent success is going to end up helping the Red Sox, because it removes Price from the market.  
 

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Edes on SportsCenter:
 
  • Price currently pitching for Rays, which suggests they're holding onto him.  Makes Lester most attractive starting pitcher on market.
  • Being scratched makes it inevitable he'll be traded
  • Six teams still in it for Lester
  • Pirates, Cardinals, Dodgers most likely landing places
  • Red Sox want "a king's ransom" for Lester -- at least 2 top prospects
  • Was told they're using Cubs/A's Samardzija trade as a "template"
 

dcmissle

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The incredulity over Price not being traded demonstrates how detached from reality the prospect palooza has become. They are in the playoff hunt and can always trade him after the season if they choose.
 

bosockboy

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dcmissle said:
The incredulity over Price not being traded demonstrates how detached from reality the prospect palooza has become. They are in the playoff hunt and can always trade him after the season if they choose.
 
Yes but the price goes way down.  You're buying two pennant races and/or postseasons right now.
 

JCizzle

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cwright said:
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/494518378196127744"]52s

link to tweet[/url]
Source: Very good chance that #RedSox trade Lackey along with Lester.


 
 


I kind of hope they do pull both triggers if they're giving up Lester. It removes the headache of negotiating the inevitable extension with Lackey this offseason and giving up Lackey almost ensures a top 10 pick so that we can pursue Lester, Masterson, etc without concern over the picks.
 

67WasBest

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cwright said:
 
Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 52s
Source: “Very good chance” that #RedSox trade Lackey along with Lester.


 
 


 
It would make sense.  The competing teams that do not acquire one will be more anxious to acquire the other because the balance of power will have shifted so much.  If the returns are as large an overpay as some have projected, they would be crazy not to make these deals.  That said, I doubt they consider it without an overpay.  I wonder which of the two has greater value?  How attractive is that $500K option on Lackey to any team, but particularly small market teams like Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, KC, Miami and Atlanta?
 

chawson

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I mean Lester's great and all, but when the dust settles on this, David Ross will have really earned that contract.
 

Omar's Wacky Neighbor

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Buzzkill Pauley said:
 
Good lord.  What wouldn't the Bucs give up for Lester and Lackey!?!
 
Of course, in all seriousness, I'm sure Rosenthal meant that they are both traded, not that they are traded together.
Yes:
 
Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 2m
To be clear: Source not saying #RedSox will move Lester and Lackey in the same deal. Just saying “very good chance” both will be traded.
 

Stitch01

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Rudy Pemberton said:
If all of these NL Central teams are primarily interested in keeping Lester away from their competitors (as opposed to paying what it takes to get him), to what extent can they engage Ben just to kill the clock? Pirates, for example, would surely love Lester but are realistic about how much he really helps their chances. That being said, they don't want him to end up on the Cardinals. Do teams ever just keep the dialogue going with the hope that the clock runs out and Lester (or someone similar) stays put? Not necessarily the most ethical move and not something you can pull more than once or twice, but curious if it happens.
Unless the GM they are dealing with is an idiot this doesn't work.
 

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It will be interesting because if I'm the Red Sox I want to send Lester to Pittsburgh because I would assume an extension will be tough for them to pull off. However if I'm Pittsburgh I'd be more interested in Lackey since that option gives me leverage to get an cheap extension done. 
 

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It seems that the sox plan is to add a ton of prospects to their own large cache, then suck so bad to guarantee an awful record to protect their hides in the free agent market, then get a great pick in the draft.
Hey if we aren't goin to win a World Series lets go balls to the wall to create a chance for future rings.
 
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