Trading Jon Lester (news and speculation thread)
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I would absolutely love it if the Pirates were able to land Lester and Miller for a prospect package centered around Bell.
Not only do I want to see lowly Pittsburgh win over the Dodgers and Cardinals, but Bell would be a phenomenal add for the Sox.
Not only do I want to see lowly Pittsburgh win over the Dodgers and Cardinals, but Bell would be a phenomenal add for the Sox.
Hell lets give them Gomes too if that pushes them over the edge to give us bell and meadows. Expand this bitch
Things I like to hear- bidding war
Two names Gammo just tweeted out with the caveat it seemed steep
Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 40 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55
Piscotty was billed as an advanced college bat coming out of Stanford, and he looked the part in his first full professional season. He advanced to Double-A Springfield, and he ended the year with a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League. Piscotty has continued to rake at Triple-A Memphis this season.
Piscotty has a mature approach at the plate, and he has the chance to be a .300 hitter in the Major Leagues. His swing is more geared toward hitting line drives than home runs, but he should be able to supply average power along with his high average. After playing primarily third base at Stanford, Piscotty was moved to right field by the Cardinals in 2013. He handled the transition well, improving as the season went on. Piscotty has a strong arm and covers ground capably.
Piscotty has hit everywhere he's gone, and his polish could have him in the Major Leagues soon.
Other Lists: 100 Prospects (#57)
Kaminsky
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 55
St. Louis has cleaned up in recent years with pitchers who have lasted longer than expected in the first round. Kaminsky, who lasted 28 picks in the 2013 Draft -- mainly because he's 5-foot-11 -- could follow in the footsteps ofShelby Miller and Michael Wacha.
Though Kaminsky is small in stature, he has big-time stuff that earned him a $1,785,300 bonus. He's a left-hander who throws strikes with three pitches that all have the potential to be plus offerings. Scouts rave about Kaminsky's competitiveness as well. If everything comes together, he'll be a front-line starter.
Kaminsky's best pitch is probably his curveball, which has sharp downward break. If there's a knock on him other than his size, it's that he can fall in love with his curve too much. Kaminsky's fastball ranges from 89-94 mph, and he shows precocious feel for his changeup.
If it comes down to Piscotty or Bell I think I'd go Piscotty but that's a toss up . Piscotty a little closer I would say.
Two names Gammo just tweeted out with the caveat it seemed steep
Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 40 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55
Piscotty was billed as an advanced college bat coming out of Stanford, and he looked the part in his first full professional season. He advanced to Double-A Springfield, and he ended the year with a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League. Piscotty has continued to rake at Triple-A Memphis this season.
Piscotty has a mature approach at the plate, and he has the chance to be a .300 hitter in the Major Leagues. His swing is more geared toward hitting line drives than home runs, but he should be able to supply average power along with his high average. After playing primarily third base at Stanford, Piscotty was moved to right field by the Cardinals in 2013. He handled the transition well, improving as the season went on. Piscotty has a strong arm and covers ground capably.
Piscotty has hit everywhere he's gone, and his polish could have him in the Major Leagues soon.
Other Lists: 100 Prospects (#57)
Kaminsky
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 55
St. Louis has cleaned up in recent years with pitchers who have lasted longer than expected in the first round. Kaminsky, who lasted 28 picks in the 2013 Draft -- mainly because he's 5-foot-11 -- could follow in the footsteps ofShelby Miller and Michael Wacha.
Though Kaminsky is small in stature, he has big-time stuff that earned him a $1,785,300 bonus. He's a left-hander who throws strikes with three pitches that all have the potential to be plus offerings. Scouts rave about Kaminsky's competitiveness as well. If everything comes together, he'll be a front-line starter.
Kaminsky's best pitch is probably his curveball, which has sharp downward break. If there's a knock on him other than his size, it's that he can fall in love with his curve too much. Kaminsky's fastball ranges from 89-94 mph, and he shows precocious feel for his changeup.
If it comes down to Piscotty or Bell I think I'd go Piscotty but that's a toss up . Piscotty a little closer I would say.
Interesting. If you don't mind me asking, what does activity look like on average Tuesday/Wednesday?AlNipper49 said:I'll document some usage charts today so we can watch the "Lester Bump"
YouDownWithOBP? said:
I wonder if the Pirates have inquired about Drew at all. They could use a LHH middle infielder and Drew is better than Jordy Mercer. I would pay Drew to play for the Pirates if it increased what we could get
I will answer this one. Its pretty flat and essentially resembles the collective brain wave activity on this site, save for when certain threads are updated in P&GFerm Sheller said:
I think that from a PR perspective, he may need to:JimD said:
Pete Abraham @PeteAbe · 3m
Averaging roughly one “I’m disgusted with the #RedSox” email every five minutes it seems. PR disaster for the team so far.
I don't see the big deal with Bell. His numbers are underwhelming and he profiles as an above average prospect. He's still at least two years away. I would hope the Sox are looking to get something better than that.
MakMan44 said:
I was trying to figure if the Sox will get better bids from whoever doesn't land Price (if he is traded) or (if he is not traded) because, without Price leaving the Rays, he is the only stretch run pitching acquisition who can separate one of the contenders from the pack. Either way, it looks like a seller's market because of this and because of the market set by the Samardzija and Peavy trades.
It's a disaster if they make any decisions based on any kind of "disgusted" emails Peter Abraham is receiving. Lester has never been better, and the team is in last place because of other glaring holes that Lester being at what is his absolute peak value can help them to address. I admire that Cherington is able to take the long view on this and hopefully acquire more pieces to add to the longer term foundation.Stan Papi Was Framed said:
As long as it's not like Carlos Gonzalez, Huston Street and Greg Smith for Matt Holliday.JimD said:
Stan Papi Was Framed said:
That's 288 emails in a 24 hour period. Even allowing for Pete's sudden self-revealed relevance as a barometer for Red Sox nation.
It's not exactly folks rioting in the streets or refusing to buy tickets.
Edit - and you know he probably got 20 emails or so.
bosockboy said:
True unless adding Uehara and Miller or (gulp) Mookie Betts sweetens the deal enough.
The Pirates gave him the biggest signing bonus for anyone drafted in the second round. Sickels had him #37 in his midseason update a couple weeks ago. He hit 37 doubles a year ago. He just got promoted to AA at age 21. He fills an organizational need both positionally (OF, even if he's not great at it) and in his hitting profile (power).Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
What are you looking for, exactly?
fair points, but I would not be surprised if a lot of fans are upset when/if Lester leaves. I know I will be, and it looks like others (at least some) posting here would be as well.Rovin Romine said:
I realize none of this is necessarily rational--it may well make sense, in objective terms, to make a deal. But if doing so alienates people, that seems like a problem to take into account. Especially if it has a negative effect on other players.
Again, I realize this is vague, subjective, hard to assess.
j44thor said:
Arguably 1.5 seasons is about 3 times the 0.5 season, so yes? Double would seem a reasonable assuming the team wants him for next year (and if not can always sell him on)
fair points. It's emotionally difficult to see that Lester will likely be gone. I agree that this shouldn't control what the front office does, but it concerns me, especially if it negatively affects other players on the team. But your points are reasonable ones. This is an area where it's difficult to be controlled by reason.Laschelle Tarver said:
Um, yea. It's a pretty enormous deal. And it's the reason this team should get something very interesting for John Lackey.j44thor said:
The Boomer said:
Would you trade Betts for Taveras straight up?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=tavera001osc
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=betts-000mar
Piscotty is Jackie Bradley without the defense. He's a well rounded but nothing exceptional guy offensively, just like Bradley, and is every bit as likely to struggle for a season or more when he comes up full time. With Bradley it is worth the growing pains because he's an elite defensive CF. Piscotty is an acceptable RF and nothing more.jimbobim said:
If he's the centerpiece of a deal sending Lester to St. Louis I'd be pretty disappointed. One of Taveras, Miller, and Martinez would be an outright requirement for me, otherwise they've got a lot of guys comparable to the Sox' top 5-20 pool. The Sox don't need more depth, they need elite talent to lock down spots.
Piscotty+ for Lackey is worth talking about. It should be an absolute non-starter for Lester. I'd rather see him walk than settle for a marginal upgrade over what Peavy got from the Giants.
Someone a little closer to the majors. A lot can happen in the time its going to take for him to be major league ready. Extremely SSS but he's not exactly lighting AA on fire either. Lester should be worth at least one elite-ish prospect.Toe Nash said:
Could it be that the worth to STL is because it's only/exactly one more year. Not just a rental, but also not a long term high priced pitcher in his 30s; call it a very comfortable and possibly desirable middle ground.j44thor said:
Stan Papi Was Framed said:
I understand what you're saying. Following any franchise involves emotional highs and lows. The question is will it hurt the franchise in the long run? I can't imagine that it would. Will it alienate people to the point where they don't follow the Sox next year? Again, I can't imagine that it would.
Not to rehash all the points made thus far, but if a Lester trade now is in the Sox's best interest, it should be made. If signing Lester is in the Sox's best interest, he should be signed. We can't debate the merits of either because we're not privy to all the information the Sox are privy to. In the future, we can look back and judge if the approach/deal worked out or not, but we'll never really know whether it was a wise decision at this point in time.
chawson said:
I think you are right about this. With or without Price also on the trading block, if Lester goes to one of the NL contenders, another NL competitor could up the ante for a cost controlled Lackey. Lackey to the A's sounds like a Billy Beane special. Pomeranz and lottery tickets might be enough unless, because it turns out to be a truly insane seller's market, Lester gets a good package from Pittsburgh, St. Louis or LAD and Lackey breaks the ice with competitors not landing Lester or some other crazy variation of these scenarios. Miller and Uehara could be added to either package to bolster the take or the Sox could eat some salary somewhere to get better prospects.
Toe Nash said:
The scouting just seems to be a little bit more bullish than the pure analytics, because his numbers aren't eye popping by any means. As a 21/22 year old this year, he has hit quite well in high A and struggled so far in AA (in a very small sample). I'm happy to trust the scouts who see the tools and rank him in the 30s but lets not pretend like he's been destroying the minors.
Edit: All that said, I'd much rather have him than Piscotty because the ceiling is obviously very high with Bell and that's what we should be shooting for.
Stan Papi Was Framed said:
Are we at the point where Pete Abraham tweeting self-serving conclusions based on his email traffic is considered interesting?
Everyone wants someone closer, but someone with Bell's power and pedigree profiles pretty well to reach it. It's not like he's 17. The guys who are closer to the majors are probably not getting traded since not only are they more "certain" but they can also maybe help this year (Like Bogaerts).Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed with the return. The Sox aren't going to hold onto Lester for two worthless months and teams know that. You have to get better than the comp pick, but that's not a high bar to clear. Great that there's now a "bidding war" but what level did the war start from?
A top 50 prospect in baseball who again fills a need and a top 100-150 guy is pretty solid IMO. Add in Miller and maybe get another top 100 guy or two. I'm hopeful they can get more but realistically I doubt it.
jimbobim said:
I would, too, depending on the second piece in the deal. I'm not convinced Bell will stick in the outfield and the bat will not stand out at 1B (rumor is that PIT will move Bell to 1B if he is not traded). Piscotty may not be flashy but he projects to be at least a league average RF, with a Red Sox-like approach to hitting. He may develop more power, although he's unlikely to be a 30 HR hitter.
Piscotty + comp pick/Kaminsky/Martinez is better than Bell + 11-15 PIT prospect IMO.
Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
He's had 56 plate appearances in AA.
A switch-hitter who projects power and managed the 4th-highest OPS in the Florida League at age 21...well, that seems like exactly the sort of prospect the Sox need. If he can't be used to acquire Stanton before 2016, maybe he can play in front of the Monster himself by then.
With all the focus on Lester....who is working on getting the other 9 trade candidates out of town?
But he's not cost controlled, he's a rental who you'll have to negotiate with for 2015 and beyond. Unless you think he'll really play for 500K next year and not put up any kind of stink.The Boomer said:
Very true. I guess them winning in 2013 and recovering from depths of 2012 makes me feel that they can overcome any negative perception here too. I want them to display the discipline to have an approach and stick to it, even if it at times it means losing a player I don't want them to like Lester. And, if they're going to lose him at the end of the year, the right move is to maxmize the return they can get on him. They will never have more leverage in that regard than right now.Stan Papi Was Framed said:
BeantownIdaho said:
This is where the "no leak" Sox management makes their living. If the final Lester trade isn't under the radar, pretty much everything else they are considering still is.
BeantownIdaho said:
I'd be surprised if the Pirates aren't as actively working out a deal for Lackey, as they are for Lester.
With Cole on the DL, their rotation is being held together with smoke, mirrors, chewing gum and duct tape.
MakMan44 said:
Taveras has had
a 191 wRC+ as a 19-year-old in high-A
a 159 wRC+ as a 20-year-old in double-A
a 109 wRC+ as a 21-year-old in triple-A
a 123 wRC+ as a 22-year-old in triple-A
meanwhile, Betts has had
a 160 wRC+ as a 20-year-old in A
a 166 wRC+ as a 20-year-old in high-A
a 175 wRC+ as a 21-year-old in double-A
a 144 wRC+ as a 21-year-old in triple-A
So I don't see why it shouldn't be a serious question. I know Taveras is a much bigger deal in the eyes of the scouting community, but I think it's reasonable to ask whether they might have missed something with Betts, or overhyped Taveras a tad, based on the results so far.
Rovin Romine said:
You recognize hyperbole when you read it, right?
I understand rationally why the Red Sox "have" to do this, but I'm not happy about it. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people on this board feel the same way.
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