Trade deadline

YTF

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Thinking pitching for a moment. Do most of us agree that ATM Richards is the odd man out of the rotation? So what do we do with him? I'm guessing there are teams with a shot at the wild card that need a bottom of the rotation guy who would take a flyer on Richards. We shit on the guy, but what he's given the Sox is better than what some teams are getting from their bottom of the rotation. Might his bright spots (and he has had some) be worth it for someone to take a chance and give up a mid level or one or two low level guys? Get something if you can and whoever Chaim brings in as a starter at the deadline takes his slot. When Sale returns one of Pivetta or Perez needs to get bumped. Do you move one of them as well in a package to further your quest for a starter/reliever/first baseman and slot Houck in their spot until Sale's back? In a couple of weeks if all goes well you have Sale, Eovaldi, Rodriquez, New Guy, and two of Pivetta/Perez/Houck as your #5 and your swing man. You've got two upgrades and possibly three if Houck is able to force his way into the rotation. Given his struggle in the early innings, I don't think Richards figures to be an improvement over anyone in the pen.
 
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sean1562

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Richards is an expensive 4.99 ERA, 4.93 FIP pitcher with a 1.634 WHIP who loudly talked about how the lack of sticky stuff was really damaging to his stuff. He has a 7.04 ERA since June 23 in 23 innings pitched, 30 hits allowed, 9 BB, 18 ERs with 14 Ks. I do not know of a contender with a worse 5 starter. Who asks for him? The Phillies?
 

Jed Zeppelin

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One thing with trading prospects is that I trust Chaim to get creative in replenishing the system and/or finding cheap stopgaps while the next wave of prospects develops.

And while he hasn’t been in position to do it yet, he seems like the type who might trade from a surplus to add prospects even in a GFIN year. Not sure we’re in position to do that now though…maybe if Richards or Perez were pitching better.
 

YTF

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Richards is an expensive 4.99 ERA, 4.93 FIP pitcher with a 1.634 WHIP who loudly talked about how the lack of sticky stuff was really damaging to his stuff. He has a 7.04 ERA since June 23 in 23 innings pitched, 30 hits allowed, 9 BB, 18 ERs with 14 Ks. I do not know of a contender with a worse 5 starter. Who asks for him? The Phillies?
It depends on how far down the wild card standings you want to go and whether any of those teams think they have a glimmer of hope to make a run. But set that aside for a moment and consider a team that is going to be looking some pitching for next season. BIG IF, but say Richards gets moved and pitches really well for his new team. The team option for next year might be enough to consider taking him on.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Richards is an expensive 4.99 ERA, 4.93 FIP pitcher with a 1.634 WHIP who loudly talked about how the lack of sticky stuff was really damaging to his stuff. He has a 7.04 ERA since June 23 in 23 innings pitched, 30 hits allowed, 9 BB, 18 ERs with 14 Ks. I do not know of a contender with a worse 5 starter. Who asks for him? The Phillies?
Yeah. I think Richards maybe gets a chance to see if he can make his stuff work out of the pen, though his first inning troubles would suggest that's not a good bet. He's more likely a DFA candidate than a trade candidate at this point. He was a placeholder for Sale anyway, or at least that's what I saw him as. Maybe he was a bit expensive but he did have upside. Cutting bait with him once Sale is back seems like a foregone conclusion to me.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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If Scherzer is open to the Sox, I don’t see how you can NOT go after him unless the ask is ridiculous (which I don’t think it will be)

Perfect world to me is Scherzer and Gallo.I realize that would be highly unlikely. Even if they cannot get Max, I’d much rather have Gallo than Rizzo.
 

YTF

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Yeah. I think Richards maybe gets a chance to see if he can make his stuff work out of the pen, though his first inning troubles would suggest that's not a good bet. He's more likely a DFA candidate than a trade candidate at this point. He was a placeholder for Sale anyway, or at least that's what I saw him as. Maybe he was a bit expensive but he did have upside. Cutting bait with him once Sale is back seems like a foregone conclusion to me.
For sure, but I don't see Chaim as the sort to let go of any player if he thinks he can get even a small piece in return. As for getting a shot in the pen, with the changes made regarding obtaining players after the deadline, I don't think Chaim has the luxury of seeing if that works out.
 

BringBackMo

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Yes and yes. A clear eyed view sees this: a supreme core potentially nearing the end of its run maybe after this season and almost certainly after 2022, AND ... not a lot of ML ready blue chip players in the upper minors.

Chaim has rebuilt some depth on the farm ... but not many guys ready to step into Bogaerts/Martinez/Sale/Eovaldi roles right away (all those guys plus Erod and Kike and Ottavino and Vazquez might be gone by 2022). So, unless the team wants to rebuild via FA after 2022 and spend spend spend, then the ACTUAL rebuilding years might be 2023/24 rather than now.

Now? They have the second best record in baseball. They have some weaknesses. They have a stellar core at the end of their window. They are relatively healthy (with Sale coming). They are unshackled from LT considerations this season.

All that = GFIN.
How are we defining the “core” here? It seems to me that Devers, Bogaerts, and Verdugo are the three most important members of the Red Sox. If the Sox continue to want them, all should be here and very productive after the 2022 season, right? X has his opt-out, of course, but there’s no reason at this point to expect the Sox won’t do what it takes to keep him. So do we just mean JD Martinez,

And if we’re fast forwarding to the end of the 22 season, there is every reason to believe that Duran, Casas, Downs, and maybe Bello and Mata (hard to say given TJ) could be contributing to the big club.

I guess I just don’t understand how this season marks the end of a window rather than the beginning of one.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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For sure, but I don't see Chaim as the sort to let go of any player if he thinks he can get even a small piece in return. As for getting a shot in the pen, with the changes made regarding obtaining players after the deadline, I don't think Chaim has the luxury of seeing if that works out.
It's a progression. He has to be traded in the next three days if he's traded at all. If he's still here on Saturday, he probably makes his next start and then more than likely Sale is back. At which point, it's bullpen or DFA. It might end up being they can't move him to the bullpen because there's no room for him there. Presumably Valdez gets optioned for Sawamura, which leaves just Darwinzon and Yacksel as optionable relievers. I don't see either of them as likely to be sent down just to experiment with Richards.
 

chrisfont9

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The whole point of a reliever is to prevent runs from scoring, just like it is with starters. Now, relievers sometimes come into games with runners on, so they can give up runs without it being attached to their own ERA, so yes, era means less for relievers than for starters, but still, their job is to prevent runs from scoring, above and beyond anything else.
Right, and 100 games worth of data is still actually not much of a sample size, when you are trying to guess what will happen next. Sox' relievers might or might not prevent the runs that need preventing, based on the numbers. This is where the analytics drop off and Cora and his staff have to step in and determine if they have enough guys who are confident, match up well against people they'll need to get out, have roles they feel comfortable in, and whatever else it is that can help them succeed.

Which is a long-winded way of saying that if what you have is working, maybe don't spend too much on "upgrades" who, for all you know, won't end up preventing the runs that need preventing. If they bring in one or two relievers, it's because they don't trust a couple guys on the current roster, but I won't be shocked if they stand pat or limit themselves to a very small investment in one more decent arm. If there were a total shutdown guy out there, then you trade something of substance, but unless we are talking ourselves back into Kimbrel, then I don't see too many risks worth taking.
 
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Erod and Kike and Ottavino and Vazquez might be gone by 2022
Given that Scherzer is a big get, even for a rental, and if indeed Erod might be gone soon (and he has been somewhat erratic this season), would the Nationals be interested in Rodriguez for Scherzer as the basic framework of a deal?

Of course, this assumes that the Sox are indeed in GFIN mode. A top three of Sale, Scherzer, and Eovaldi would be formidable for the playoff run.
 

nvalvo

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I'll just say that if Miami thinks Duran could be the "centerfielder of the future" they're planning to deal some of that massive stockpile of young pitching for, maybe Chaim and Ng should chat.
 

BaseballJones

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I agree. You don't know what you're going to get. Kimbrel is someone we can be pretty sure will be better - much better - than the worst guy in the bullpen right now though. But of course...the cost goes up considerably.

Here's what I'd see for the pitching staff:

SP - Sale, Eovaldi, Rodriguez, Pivetta
RP - Houck, Sawamura, Barnes, Ottavino, Taylor, Hernandez, Whitlock, Perez

That gives them three lefties in the pen. Two fairly solid starters, one pretty good one, and one ace in the rotation. Love the arm angles of Houck and Ottavino. Not a bad pitcher in the group.

This would leave out Richards, Andriese, Rios, and Workman. Now if they added Kimbrel, I'd have Sawamura sit, among this group. The back end of the bullpen would be awesome.
 

Hendu for Kutch

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Fangraphs had Luzardo as the 45th most valuable trade asset in all of baseball last year. Shocking to see him traded for a non-MVP level rental, even with hit struggles this season.
 

nvalvo

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Fangraphs had Luzardo as the 45th most valuable trade asset in all of baseball last year. Shocking to see him traded for a non-MVP level rental, even with hit struggles this season.
Looking at his numbers, I'm wondering if there's a health issue. He's been bad this year in AAA, too — both his hit and walk rates have roughly doubled. Something is seriously up with his command.
 

BigSoxFan

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Fangraphs had Luzardo as the 45th most valuable trade asset in all of baseball last year. Shocking to see him traded for a non-MVP level rental, even with hit struggles this season.
Almost makes you wonder if there is more at play here. I know there’s been some immaturity issues along with poor performance.
 

cantor44

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Thinking pitching for a moment. Do most of us agree that ATM Richards is the odd man out of the rotation? So what do we do with him? I'm guessing there are teams with a shot at the wild card that need a bottom of the rotation guy who would take a flyer on Richards. We shit on the guy, but what he's given the Sox is better than what some teams are getting from their bottom of the rotation. Might his bright spots (and he has had some) be worth it for someone to take a chance and give up a mid level or one or two low level guys? Get something if you can and whoever Chaim brings in as a starter at the deadline takes his slot. When Sale returns one of Pivetta or Perez needs to get bumped. Do you move one of them as well in a package to further your quest for a starter/reliever/first baseman and slot Houck in their spot until Sale's back? In a couple of weeks if all goes well you have Sale, Eovaldi, Rodriquez, New Guy, and two of Pivetta/Perez/Houck as your #5 and your swing man. You've got two upgrades and possibly three if Houck Given his struggle in the early innings, I don't think Richards figures to be an improvement over anyone in the pen.
A couple weeks ago I suggested in the "Sox ARE good" thread that the Sox both trade for and trade away pitching. That is, we trade for a blue chipper, and trade away someone at the end of the current ML rotation to mitigate prospect loses from the first trade ... and I was kinda lambasted (folks said the idea was 'joke' and EEI worthy ...). Meanwhile, the Yanks just traded away some arms, likely as a precursor to acquiring one ... So, it seems sensible, even smart to me ...
 

chawson

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A couple weeks ago I suggested in the "Sox ARE good" thread that the Sox both trade for and trade away pitching. That is, we trade for a blue chipper, and trade away someone at the end of the current ML rotation to mitigate prospect loses from the first trade ... and I was kinda lambasted (folks said the idea was 'joke' and EEI worthy ...). Meanwhile, the Yanks just traded away some arms, likely as a precursor to acquiring one ... So, it seems sensible, even smart to me ...
The Yankee thing seems to be about clearing salary for a forthcoming deal.

I could see a trade where we send someone like Pérez to balance a trade for a frontline starter and give the other team some league-average innings. Richards seems less likely—I don’t think anyone’s exercising his option next year.

It’s unlikely, but maybe even Pivetta if some selling team values him highly and sees themselves contending in another year or two. The Nats have no choice but to go for it again before Soto hits free agency in 2025, and they could have some interest in three arb years of a solid #3 starter like Pivetta.
 

chawson

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The yearly SOSH trade deadline thread is always insane. This year is no exception
Yes, and true too of all trade deadline discourse anywhere in any sport, right?

And what happens is often weirder than we think up. I don’t think anyone would have guessed the A’s would give up five years of Luzardo for a rental CF, nor the Marlins target him when they have roughly 8-10 emerging and cost-controlled starting pitchers.
 

cantor44

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How are we defining the “core” here? It seems to me that Devers, Bogaerts, and Verdugo are the three most important members of the Red Sox. If the Sox continue to want them, all should be here and very productive after the 2022 season, right? X has his opt-out, of course, but there’s no reason at this point to expect the Sox won’t do what it takes to keep him. So do we just mean JD Martinez,

And if we’re fast forwarding to the end of the 22 season, there is every reason to believe that Duran, Casas, Downs, and maybe Bello and Mata (hard to say given TJ) could be contributing to the big club.

I guess I just don’t understand how this season marks the end of a window rather than the beginning of one.
I'm not so sure the Red Sox will pay Xander 30 million a year, which is what I think he will ask for and probably get (should he get much less than Lindor?). And there is no guarantee any of those prospects will be good major leaguers ... Plus Sale has an opt out and Eovaldi's contract is up. And Erod. So, I guess I mean all of those guys ...
 

cantor44

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I'm not sure I can quite take the lack of news on the trading front ... what the hell is happening precisely? I'm jonesing for some news, any little scrap ...
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'm not sure I can quite take the lack of news on the trading front ... what the hell is happening precisely? I'm jonesing for some news, any little scrap ...
Take a step back. Take a deep breath. The deadline is 48 hours away. News will come when it comes.
 

YTF

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A couple weeks ago I suggested in the "Sox ARE good" thread that the Sox both trade for and trade away pitching. That is, we trade for a blue chipper, and trade away someone at the end of the current ML rotation to mitigate prospect loses from the first trade ... and I was kinda lambasted (folks said the idea was 'joke' and EEI worthy ...). Meanwhile, the Yanks just traded away some arms, likely as a precursor to acquiring one ... So, it seems sensible, even smart to me ...
Guilty as charged, but in Richards case it's a matter of trying to see if there is any return to be had before DFAing him.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It’ll be especially funny when the eventual news is low level prospects for a platoon 1B like CJ Cron and a veteran RP for the 7th inning like Joakim Soria.
A wise man once said to me "expect nothing and you'll never be disappointed." Sound advice applicable to anything, including the trade deadline.
 

chawson

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It’ll be especially funny when the eventual news is low level prospects for a platoon 1B like CJ Cron and a veteran RP for the 7th inning like Joakim Soria.
Wouldn’t call Cron a platoon 1B. He’s got a .356 wOBA against RHP the last two seasons, which is roughly as well as Xander, Max Muncy and Nelson Cruz has hit them and a better mark than Gallo and Olson.
 

sean1562

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That makes way more sense than any Hosmer trade that has been proposed in this thread. Their payroll this year is 59.6 million, next year it is 68.6 million. They have traditionally had payrolls that exceed 120 million, Dallas is a huge market. Hassell is 19 and a few years away and the Rangers are probably not going to be competitive for awhile. A Gallo extension really doesn't make that much sense for them.
 

jon abbey

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Also Preller is the one who drafted Gallo when he was in TEX, people have been saying for weeks that SD is the primary suitor for Gallo.