1B is fungible making the Rizzo talk just nostalgic. Former Sox farm hand... yadda yadda yadda.
But there's nothing you can do if players already on your roster refuses to get vaccinated. They have that right.
I think this is certainly part of the plan. Along with Franchy taking reps at first base in Worcester. I think they are trying to deepen the offense with internal solutions, since it's already very good, albeit with a very weak bottom third. My conjecture is that with Arroyo healthy, bringing up Duran, and possibly creating a platoon between Cordero and Dalbec (and with Gonzalez ready to play a bit of D), they may be angling to use whatever chips they're willing to spend on pitching.
The biggest gap is staring pitching. I LIKE all the Sox starters. And they tease with sporadic quality starts, only to fall back to getting knocked around the next time. The starting rotation is not championship caliber at present. Of course Sale with improve that if he stays healthy. Maybe that's enough. But even with him, another proven quality arm would help.
Yeah I’d like a good starter too but I’m just not sure what’s available. As you noted, we have a lot of decent guys, so any acquisition would have to be a notable upgrade. I don’t think Bloom would pay what it takes to get Scherzer, and I don’t think the Nats will even trade him anyways. Charlie Morton would be a proven quality arm, but the Braves just made a trade to get Joc so I don’t think they’re selling. The other guys definitely available are like Kyle Gibson and Danny Duffy - two 33 year old rentals having career years with losing teams but that each have a FIP of around ~4.6 the past couple years. I’m not sure I buy them as upgrades. It’s just hard to find quality starting pitching mid season.
Duffy seems like a sticky stuff guy with a big spin rate drop and I wouldn’t want any part of him. Gibson’s changes seem more sustainable, and I can’t imagine he’d cost a ton. He’s also under contract for 2022 (at 9.3M aav) so wouldn’t be a two-month rental. He’s been excellent at suppressing hard contact this year, which seems in line with a lot of the Sox starters have been coached.
You're right, Minnesota is reportedly only considering trading rentals. Twins think they're contenders next year.
Go for all the marbles Theo. I need a 5th WS title to overcome the pandemic and the home officide.
With so little on the books in 2023 the luxury tax seems barely a speedbump. I’d love to see us get a chance at Scherzer for the stretch run and offer him a more or less blank check two-year contract extension. Would go a long way toward shattering this brittle Yankee contention window.
Yeah, I thought we tried hard to get under the cap last year to reset the tax so we could go over in the future years. We should go over this year because we have a real shot at winning it all.
Is Scherzer eligible for a Qualifying Offer comp pick? That's the upper-bound for talent going to Washington. Does someone like Nick Yorke get your phone call returned?
It’s tough to square without knowing how much money the Nats would cover, but how about something like Downs plus Dalbec and/or Houck for Scherzer, Josh Bell and Hand/Hudson?
Glad you brought this up. Can you tell us what you've seen about Duran defensively that makes you think this?
Ian Cundall, who does an excellent job over at Sox Prospects and has watched Duran closely since he was drafted, put together this updated report on his overall game when Duran was called up:
You mean after 2022? With a core of Soto, Turner and Schwarber I would think the Nationals are trying to figure out how they can compete next year, not engage in the full tear down that a Scherzer trade clearly indicates. Also, Scherzer has a full no-trade clause and Boras says he only waives it if there's an extension offer. So I think we're talking about both top end talent to make the Nationals interested (no, Downs doesn't qualify) and also committing many millions of dollars for Scherzer's 37-40 age seasons. In other words: it's not happening.
That report suggests a two-year extension covering his age 37-38 seasons could suffice.
He's a rental. They can trade him away for this year, and bring him back next year. I know he said he wants an extension as a condition of a trade, but people change their minds. Why waste a half a year pitching for a team going nowhere, when he can be a difference maker for a contender down the stretch?
All true, but I suspect that the Scherzer camp has more agency than you describe here. Max has already achieved the goals of MLB players. If he wants to play for a contender this year (and the return is suitable), I’m sure he’ll have the opportunity to communicate that to the FO. I can’t see Rizzo standing in his way.
Put another way, the Nats have the fifth-worst record in the NL.
Maybe he likes the DC area and his family is comfortable there. There's a number of reasons for a player not wanting to be moved. Plus, why are the Nationals out of contention in the NL East? The Mets are a walking disaster right now and they're only 6 games out with 11 games H2H with the Mets still to play while the Braves just lost Acuna for the year.
Their schedule the rest of the season is pretty easy as well. Lets of NL East games, several NL Central series, and 6 games against the Rockies. Strasburg will eventually be back, Schwarber will be back, and Juan Soto has had a hot start to the second half. If they don't have a good week against the Marlins and Orioles this week, however, then I do think that could trigger something of a sale, starting with Brad Hand and Daniel Hudson.
You think that a $14M/year pay cut is something he'd accept?
If Hand is available, I'd be very interested in him. I'm surprised he wasn't an All-Star. 5-2 with 19 saves and a 2.61 ERA(149 ERA+). 39 K's in 38 IP and a 1.10 WHIP. He'll be owed just about $5 million around the trade deadline and would be a rental.
I think so yeah, with the money he’s made. He’s not getting 2/$68M at his age. Maybe the Sox set up a high profile rescue dog charity for him too.
He's still pitching at a high level. Why would he ever accept that kind of cut in pay and why would the Players Association let him do that even if he wanted to? Most if not all his numbers are in line with what he's done most of his career. He's even got a career low in WHIP as of right now. Verlander got 2/$66 at 36 years old as a comp. In fact, he may top Verlander.
Agreed. IF (big big if) he were to take a pay cut in an extension, I think he'd only do it for the Nats. He certainly wouldn't do it for a team he's never played for, especially if we're talking a 24-48 hour window of negotiation before the trade is consummated. That would be hasty and potentially a regrettable decision if for whatever reason he or his wife/family don't click with Boston.
You may be right, it’s tough to speculate. But there could figure to be a correction related to the spin rate stuff, and the career-low WHIP looks a little suspect.
Yes Frazier and Trevor Story are two very interesting names especially if Story agrees to move to 2nd base to get out of Colorado. Same goes for Javier Baez. At 1B, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Colin Moran, Carlos Santana, and Kyle Seager are all intriguing targets.
Schwarber is one of those guys who looks like he should be a first baseman, but I don’t think he has ever played there.
He only has played 1 MLB game at 1st base in his career, but recently took ground balls at 1st in the wake of Josh Bell's injury at the end of June. In college he caught and played OF. I wonder if he would've played more 1B if Sam Travis wasn't on his team.
He has not. He's also on the IL at present and it's questionable whether he'll be activated before 7/30. Doesn't seem like a great trade target in a lot of ways.
Agreed. He’s a good contact hitter and a decent second-division starter but I don’t know why we’d give up anything for him when we’ve got Arroyo.
There's no mutual option. The contract ends after this season. But here's an interesting piece of the puzzle per Cot's/BP:
That first box makes me wonder if any acquiring team is responsible for those deferred payments. If so, that could be a deal breaker. Does any team want to bung up their payroll $15M a year for 7 years?
