Trade Deadline Gamethread 2022

RedOctober3829

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E5 Yaz

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This is probably crazy land, but would Yankees entertain trading Judge for Ohtani now? Judge is a SoCal guy and Yankees have long coveted Ohtani.
I think someone in one of these threads suggested the Dodgers go all-in, and keep him on the West Coast ... which he preferred originally
 

moondog80

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I'd be terrified to sign Ohtani at the $$$ he will seek. He's just so uniquely different, I feel like he can't possibly keep it for long without a major injury.
 

SemperFidelisSox

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The Angels farm system is really bad. They are years away from contending even with Ohtani and Trout. If someone is willing to give up four top prospects, they have to strongly consider it.
 

jon abbey

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To trade a rare talent like that just so you can be in search of the next superstar seems foolish. You sign him and try to build around him.
He wants to contend, he has said. It is not up to the Angels, he is almost certainly gone after 2023 barring a miracle turnaround for the franchise.
 

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He wants to contend, he has said. It is not up to the Angels, he is almost certainly gone after 2023 barring a miracle turnaround for the franchise.
It would be professional negligence, barring injury, for his agent not to take him to free agency
 

RedOctober3829

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He wants to contend, he has said. It is not up to the Angels, he is almost certainly gone after 2023 barring a miracle turnaround for the franchise.
I don’t know that it’s a certainty he leaves, but the Angels need to do whatever it takes to keep him. Not only would they be worse on the field, they will lose out on a lot of revenue. I just can’t believe they’ve screwed up having two of the best players in baseball.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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I think the question of how to value Ohtani in a trade is interesting, personally - on the one hand, he’s a historic player who’s literally changing the game, but on the other, I’m guessing there’s zero chance of signing him to any kind of extension, so you’re only getting the one year. Kind of like with Soto, I guess, if you’re a team who’s already super all-in on the next couple of years then you might as well, but I can see why some teams would be hesitant, strange as it may seem.

EDIT: the fact that I think this does not say great things about Major League Baseball!
 
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BigSoxFan

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I think the question of how to value Ohtani in a trade is interesting, personally - on the one hand, he’s a historic player who’s literally changing the game, but on the other, I’m guessing there’s zero chance of signing him to any kind of extension, so you’re only getting the one year. Kind of like with Soto, I guess, if you’re a team who’s already super all-in on the next couple of years then you might as well, but I can see why some teams would be hesitant, strange as it may seem.

EDIT: the fact that I think this does not say great things about Major League Baseball!
I don't see why the Angels would do this unless they are pretty confident that they won't re-sign him or some team really does give up their top 4 prospects or whatever. It really is remarkable that the team that just got through Pujols situation made the same mistake with Rendon, a far inferior player. That contract is simply a John Wallian albatross. If you didn't have him, you could afford Trout/Ohtani. With the 3 of them, you're looking at like $130M or more / season for just 3 players. The Trout news is just devastating for them. Losing Ohtani would be awful but there is a valid argument for using him to replenish the farm and try to find a bunch of cheap talent. They need a healthy dose of Chaim.
 

RedOctober3829

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I don't see why the Angels would do this unless they are pretty confident that they won't re-sign him or some team really does give up their top 4 prospects or whatever. It really is remarkable that the team that just got through Pujols situation made the same mistake with Rendon, a far inferior player. That contract is simply a John Wallian albatross. If you didn't have him, you could afford Trout/Ohtani. With the 3 of them, you're looking at like $130M or more / season for just 3 players. The Trout news is just devastating for them. Losing Ohtani would be awful but there is a valid argument for using him to replenish the farm and try to find a bunch of cheap talent. They need a healthy dose of Chaim.
They've been doing iterations of this for years now. Build up farm system, sign free agents, etc. It just is like a hamster wheel. They'll be searching for the next Ohtani-type superstar(obviously not the 2-way component) for years if they push him out the door.
 

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Unlike the Nats, if the Angels were to trade Ohtani, I think they'd ask someone to take Rendon.
But that would seriously limit what they'd get back. The Angels have a ton of money and should be eating their bad contracts to get as much talent back as possible.
 

jon abbey

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Does this sound like someone who plans to stay long-term with LAA?

Ohtani: "Regardless of where I'm playing, I'm going to give it my all and try to win that ballgame in front of me. I'm with the Angels right now and I'm very thankful for what they've done. I love my team and my teammates. Right now, I'm an Angel and that's all I can focus on."
 

Trlicek's Whip

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To trade a rare talent like that just so you can be in search of the next superstar seems foolish. You sign him and try to build around him.
It'll take a sell job to keep Ohtani. The Angels are a mess. They essentially built their team this year much like the Red Sox did, with the expectation that they'd be competitive for a wild card. When you look at the two teams in 2022 they are doppelgangers.

They added Hill and Wacha-esque reclamation projects in their rotation (Syndergaard, Lorenzen) coupled with younger arms leveling up (Griffin Canning, Reid Detmers). Established hitters (Trout, Ohtani, Rendon) with role players (Fletcher, Stassi) and younger SSS bats hopefully leveling up (Jared Walsh). Some rookies or rookie-adjacent players that would make a splash (Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh, Taylor Ward).

Then they had a scourge of injuries, and several underperforming players that shortened instead of lengthened their lineup. They had a white-hot streak of great baseball for a month, then looked like the Upside Down, weathering a terrible losing streak and playing Sox-level baseball in July too. They fired Joe Maddon and Phil "old school redass" Nevin is not the long term solution; as a manager he makes a great third base coach and you hope they find better after 2022 (at least you pray they do you are an Angels fan).

There is not much to build around Ohtani at the moment; their pitching is fungible outside of Detmers and Canning (if he comes back solid from injury). Their bullpen is Costco Chex Mix outside of their closer (who should be traded for value). Taylor Ward was a surprise to post the numbers he has but has always shown promise. Brandon Marsh leaned into bad contact rates and makes Jackie Bradley Jr. look like Ted Williams. And as underwhelming as Duran has been for the Sox, Jo Adell has been abysmal both at the plate and in the field.

There's so much churn for LAA to be middle-road enough to vie for a wild card spot in 2023, and they'll have to fill a lot of the same holes that were leaking next year as they tried to do this year. So one more year of Shohei doesn't look like it'll be the difference maker. With no manager, no continuity in the majors, and the same GM, I wouldn't be surprised if they try to deal Ohtani since you'd essentially be trading for two players so the contract to keep him can't use standard position player or pitcher megadeal comps.
 

E5 Yaz

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Does this sound like someone who plans to stay long-term with LAA?

Ohtani: "Regardless of where I'm playing, I'm going to give it my all and try to win that ballgame in front of me. I'm with the Angels right now and I'm very thankful for what they've done. I love my team and my teammates. Right now, I'm an Angel and that's all I can focus on."
Sounds more like someone open to a trade
 

sodenj5

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Does this sound like someone who plans to stay long-term with LAA?

Ohtani: "Regardless of where I'm playing, I'm going to give it my all and try to win that ballgame in front of me. I'm with the Angels right now and I'm very thankful for what they've done. I love my team and my teammates. Right now, I'm an Angel and that's all I can focus on."
Trout is declining. He’s still pretty amazing when he’s healthy, but he hasn’t been healthy in about three years and now has a back condition that will likely stay with him the rest of his career.

If you were Ohtani, why would you stay with an organization that has squandered the career of one of the greatest players in baseball?

Almost every other team will line up to sign you. Why stay with LA?
 

NYCSox

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They've been wrecked by the injuries to Rendon and now Trout plus the utter failure of Marsh and Adell to progress plus the insistence on playing the worst offensive regular in baseball (Velasquez) plus the collapse of Ward and Walsh from their hot starts.

If you squint this can work next year with health and some positive progression from a few regulars as they have some promising pitching, but I don't blame them for seeing what they can get for Ohtani and moving on from some of the apparent failures in the lineup.
 
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moondog80

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But that would seriously limit what they'd get back. The Angels have a ton of money and should be eating their bad contracts to get as much talent back as possible.
Would they get anything back at all? Rendon has 4 more years at 38.5 million, he'll be 33 next year and has been unable to play 60 games for two years in a row. I guess he's not a total zero in terms of value, but it seems like basically paying a 120 million posting fee to negotiate with Ohtani (and no refund if he doesn't sign). I don't know if anyone does that *and* gives up significant prospects.
 
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Yelling At Clouds

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While I generally support all clowning of the Angels, in semi-fairness to them, Rendon looked like a decent signing at the time. He was great in Washington, and he was good in the pandemic year. Now he’s Jed Lowrie, but I’m not sure there was any reason to expect that to happen as soon as it did.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Building around Trout, Ohtani, and Rendon is not all that different from what a lot of people want to do with Devers, Bogaerts, and Soto, is it? It’s always risky to have so much payroll committed to a few players for a long time, no matter how good they are.
Guys get hurt.
 

Max Power

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While I generally support all clowning of the Angels, in semi-fairness to them, Rendon looked like a decent signing at the time. He was great in Washington, and he was good in the pandemic year. Now he’s Jed Lowrie, but I’m not sure there was any reason to expect that to happen as soon as it did.
It was a huge overpay at the time. I don't think anyone thought giving $30 million a year to a good, but not great player going into his age 30 season was a good idea. But even still, the immediate decline is Pujols-esque.
 

BigSoxFan

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If I'm the Mets, I would pursue Ohtani hard. They have a potentially short window given Scherzer's age and Degrom's health so it makes sense to be aggressive and his two-way value gives you another elite SP in the event that Degrom isn't Degrom.
 

BigSoxFan

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Building around Trout, Ohtani, and Rendon is not all that different from what a lot of people want to do with Devers, Bogaerts, and Soto, is it? It’s always risky to have so much payroll committed to a few players for a long time, no matter how good they are.
Guys get hurt.
I want to build around Devers and Soto. I don't want Bogaerts. But I guess you could say the same thing about Devers/Soto/Story.
 

Trlicek's Whip

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Building around Trout, Ohtani, and Rendon is not all that different from what a lot of people want to do with Devers, Bogaerts, and Soto, is it?
You can't really comp Trout with Devers, or Bogearts. Maybe you can argue Soto = Trout for your post but that's based on Soto expectations. Trout is in his own tier based on his career, how early he was great, and his offense and defense.

And you can't retcon Trout's deal so it can align with the state of MLB and the Sox's context in 2022. (Or you can, but it'd be woefully simplistic). The market forces in 2015 (Trout's first big contract), 2019 (his second huge contract), and 2022 are not really comparable. Especially since every big contract sets the bar for the next one. So a Soto or Ohtani deal only exists because of Trout. And either way, that's nothing like what the Sox are having to work out with Devers or Bogearts. If either of those guys are getting Trout money, I'd prefer Devers but also would prefer not paying that much for Devers. I think Ohtani and Soto are closer to Trout tier than Devers or X.

There's also the fact that signing Ohtani is like signing an ace pitcher *and* a great hitter still in his prime. No one's had to valuate or calculate a contract for one person that's like valuating a contract for two people in this day and age. So the A-to-B lines drawn between the LAA core and and Devers/X/Soto leave a lot of white space in the argument.
 
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Murderer's Crow

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Building around Trout, Ohtani, and Rendon is not all that different from what a lot of people want to do with Devers, Bogaerts, and Soto, is it? It’s always risky to have so much payroll committed to a few players for a long time, no matter how good they are.
Guys get hurt.
The word building is doing A LOT of work for the Angels. They are more like a set it and forget it organization. Seriously, look at their roster. The Red Sox would immediately find a way to the ALCS if they had Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, and Syndergaard. Injuries notwithstanding because we've got a large sample size.
 

Trlicek's Whip

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It was a huge overpay at the time. I don't think anyone thought giving $30 million a year to a good, but not great player going into his age 30 season was a good idea. But even still, the immediate decline is Pujols-esque.
Yeah, I agree. Rendon had three years before being signed by LAA where he was Hall of Very Good™ but signing him for his 30-36 age range at Mike Trout AAV was a mistake. His comps via Baseball Ref based on age and his accrued stats are guys like Youkilis, Corey Koskie, Nick Castellanos, even Ketel Marte and Pablo Sandoval. Solid players but not ever a cornerstone to build around like Pujols or Trout or an Ohtani at Pujols/Trout dollars.
 

E5 Yaz

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I fear, now that I started this thread, there won't be any trades
 

jon abbey

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I fear, now that I started this thread, there won't be any trades
I think there will be a lot but they are usually mostly in the final day or so, and we're still a few days away from that.
 

jon abbey

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Willson Contreras has removed everything Cubs-related from his Instagram, pretty sure both he and Happ will be on the move soon, together or separately, and David Robertson too.
 

scottyno

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It was a huge overpay at the time. I don't think anyone thought giving $30 million a year to a good, but not great player going into his age 30 season was a good idea. But even still, the immediate decline is Pujols-esque.
He put up 4.5 6.1 5.1 7.1 bwar his last 4 seasons, in what universe is that not great? I mean he finished 3rd in the MVP race his last year and absolutely raked in the 2019 playoffs.

That's also an interesting statement, given that I think most Sox fans want to give X 30m a year going into his age 30 season and he's a much worse player than Rendon was at the time.
 

BaseballJones

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He put up 4.5 6.1 5.1 7.1 bwar his last 4 seasons, in what universe is that not great? I mean he finished 3rd in the MVP race his last year and absolutely raked in the 2019 playoffs.

That's also an interesting statement, given that I think most Sox fans want to give X 30m a year going into his age 30 season and he's a much worse player than Rendon was at the time.
But Xander is OUR guy and we've loved him since he was in the minors. No doubt that affects our...affections for him and our willingness to take on a larger contract to keep him. Fandom is a real thing.
 

sean1562

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He put up 4.5 6.1 5.1 7.1 bwar his last 4 seasons, in what universe is that not great? I mean he finished 3rd in the MVP race his last year and absolutely raked in the 2019 playoffs.

That's also an interesting statement, given that I think most Sox fans want to give X 30m a year going into his age 30 season and he's a much worse player than Rendon was at the time.
Yea, Rendon was an amazing player who played a really great 3B. The season before LA signed him he had a 1.010 OPS. While he had injury problems in 2015, he had been mostly healthy since then. There was an assumption he wouldn't dramatically decline since he is a good defensive 3B but he has been really unlucky with injuries. I would not be surprised if he comes back healthy and is still a pretty solid player.
 

Max Power

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He put up 4.5 6.1 5.1 7.1 bwar his last 4 seasons, in what universe is that not great? I mean he finished 3rd in the MVP race his last year and absolutely raked in the 2019 playoffs.

That's also an interesting statement, given that I think most Sox fans want to give X 30m a year going into his age 30 season and he's a much worse player than Rendon was at the time.
He put up a 139, 137, and 157 OPS+ in his age 27-29 seasons. The age 29 year was great, the other two were very good. Before that he was meh with the bat. 3 years of good production in what should be his prime seasons doesn't make a player great or set an expectation that they will continue to produce at that level going into their 30s. And then the Angels gave him $35 million a year for 7 years.

If Xander wants a 7 year contract, he's not going to get $35 million a year. Even Correa couldn't do that and he's younger and better.
 

Awesome Fossum

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Rendon also seems only halfway interested in playing baseball, so I think you need to take that into account when you give someone their "set for life" contract.
 

scottyno

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He put up a 139, 137, and 157 OPS+ in his age 27-29 seasons. The age 29 year was great, the other two were very good. Before that he was meh with the bat. 3 years of good production in what should be his prime seasons doesn't make a player great or set an expectation that they will continue to produce at that level going into their 30s. And then the Angels gave him $35 million a year for 7 years.
While also playing good/very good defense. He was absolutely an elite player over those 3 seasons, and he was one of the best players in baseball over his entire 6 year stretch with the nats.