Tracking the rookie QBs

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
Long post. TLDR at bottom.
I actually saw Bills Jags. I can tell you exactly how they got that win. They rushed 4 all game and got pressure. A lot of pressure. They destroyed Buffalo’s OL.

I am not going to pretend I’ve watched a ton of the Jaguars. I saw them vs Denver (all-22), vs Cincinnati (broadcast), vs Miami (broadcast), vs the Bills (all-22), and yesterday vs the PLAYOFF BOUND Patriots.
I also follow and listen to Nate Tice who extensively follows the Jags because he loves Lawrence. The two-high guys (pff film analysts) have also recently covered them.

I have noticed a few alarming trends with them. Overall the WR room is bad. The only guy who consistently separates is Marvin Jones. However all of them run the wrong routes at points in the game. There were three incidents of it glaringly obvious yesterday on broadcast. Nate and Robert Mays had an example a few weeks ago of Jones doing it on a missed TD pass. While their drop rate is also bad it isn’t league worst but when you combine that with not getting separation and having way too many examples of receivers not running the right routes that is a huge obstacle for any QB to overcome. His line has been ok. Not great but not bad. Somewhere in the average to below average caliber. Running game was without JR they don’t have much and that’s being charitable. Without Dan Arnold and the rest of their guys injured the tight end room is also wanting. Overall their skill position players are one of the worst groups in the NFL.

You will see some nice throws from Lawrence in terms of arm talent and skill. He’s also pretty good in the pocket. I was impressed with his ability to handle pressure and not just backpeddle into a sack. That throw to Treadwell was great. And Treadwell sucks. That being said the chance he is a bust has definitely gone up. I’m still holding out hope he gets upgrades at weaponz (TM) and a competent coaching staff in year 2.
At Clemson a lot of his passing concepts were 3-4 Verts. That’s fine in college but in the NFL you have a lot more sophisticated concepts. He also threw to Higgins, Ross, etc. who were dominant X receivers. If you have Randy Moss equivalents (for the sake of the argument for college football let’s say Higgins and Ross were talent wise like Moss in the NFL) it’s a lot easier to have success with those concepts. I had some questions about how Lawrence would fare in an NFL offense where there are more complicated route conversions and options. I think he’s struggled under the weight of all these factors including bad coaching in year 1.
Defensively PFF has them 28th overall. Football Outsiders 30th. Pro football reference expected points on defense is 30th at -167. So I’m not entirely sure where the 21st number is coming from but I would argue they are a bottom five of the league defense. Why does that matter? Well it’s a lot easier to play defense against a team when you know they are going to pass because they are behind. Lawrence has been behind the 8-ball a lot.

TL/DR
You look at the situation in Jacksonville and I see: an incompetent front office, a bad coaching staff, internal dysfunction, a bottom 5 skill position group (when healthy might not be) who struggle with the fundamental basics, a bottom 3 defense, and a rookie QB playing from behind a lot in a new system that is more complicated than college. It all adds up to why he’s struggled so much. Like Super Nomario said the chance he is a bust has gone up. I’m still going to wait and see if things around him improve in year 2 but I’m skeptical they will because Khan is a terrible owner and the best players and coaches don’t want to go there.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
@Zincman I believe I answered it above but found this little nugget from March: Mystic Merlin asked if there were any negatives about Lawrence and I had 3. I saw instances where he was pressing it (usually when he was behind), bouts of inaccuracy but no common thread with why (there could have been a common thread and I missed it), and that the Clemson offense is basic. Funny how you can see how these things actually came to fruition. He’s been impacted imo by all 3.

Oh quick note I know I said their offense was like 4 verts above but he did have something like 23-25% of his yards from screen plays. Minor point as a lot of colleges run screens and RPOs. Lance and Fields did not have that same easy mode offense though.
 

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DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
53,837
FINAL NUMBERS

Jones: 352/521, 67.6%, 3801 yards, 22/13 TD/INT, 92.5 rating--THIS WEEK: 20/30, 261 yards, 1/1 TD/INT

Lawrence: 359/602, 59.6%, 3641 yards, 12/17 TD/INT, 71.9 rating (also rushed for 334 yards, 2 TDs)--THIS WEEK: 23/32, 223 yards, 2/0 TD/INT.

Wilson: 213/383, 55.6%, 2334 yards, 9/11 TD/INT, 69.7 rating--THIS WEEK: 7/20, 87 yards, 1/0 TD/INT.

Fields: 159/270, 58.9%, 1870 yards, 7/10 TD/INT, 73.2 rating (also rushed for 420 yards, 2 TDs)--THIS WEEK: DNP

Lance: 41/71, 57.7%, 603 yards, 5/2 TD/INT, 97.3 rating (also rushed for 168 yards, 1 TD)--THIS WEEK: DNP

Mills: 263/394, 66.8%, 2664 yards, 16/10 TD/INT, 88.8 rating--THIS WEEK: 23/33, 301 yards, 3/0 TD/INT
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,054
Hingham, MA
FINAL NUMBERS

Jones: 352/521, 67.6%, 3801 yards, 22/13 TD/INT, 92.5 rating--THIS WEEK: 20/30, 261 yards, 1/1 TD/INT

Lawrence: 359/602, 59.6%, 3641 yards, 12/17 TD/INT, 71.9 rating (also rushed for 334 yards, 2 TDs)--THIS WEEK: 23/32, 223 yards, 2/0 TD/INT.

Wilson: 213/383, 55.6%, 2334 yards, 9/11 TD/INT, 69.7 rating--THIS WEEK: 7/20, 87 yards, 1/0 TD/INT.

Fields: 159/270, 58.9%, 1870 yards, 7/10 TD/INT, 73.2 rating (also rushed for 420 yards, 2 TDs)--THIS WEEK: DNP

Lance: 41/71, 57.7%, 603 yards, 5/2 TD/INT, 97.3 rating (also rushed for 168 yards, 1 TD)--THIS WEEK: DNP

Mills: 263/394, 66.8%, 2664 yards, 16/10 TD/INT, 88.8 rating--THIS WEEK: 23/33, 301 yards, 3/0 TD/INT
Easily Lawrence's best game of the season, against a team fighting for the playoffs (that made Mac look pretty lousy at times). At least provides the Jags with a glimmer of hope heading into 2022 that he is the real deal.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
That TD from Lawrence to Marvin Jones while scrambling and avoiding a sack was absolutely spectacular. Watching his highlights from that game that’s what you would hope from him in year 2.