Tracking the rookie QBs

BaseballJones

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Yeah, I haven't put eyes on Lawrence enough to have any strong opinion on his performance specifically, but comparing this Jaguars team to last year's Bengals team does a disservice to the level of absolute cluster that is the 2021 Urban Meyer Jaguars. A 31 year old Marvin Jones is the clear #1 WR, with Leviska Shenault and Laquon Treadwell behind him, James Robinson was the only thing resembling a weapon, and was being benched by Urban before landing on IR. And that really just scratches the surface...

Not trying to blame ALL his issues on the situation, but this team is in the running for most dysfunctional, ever. It's really hard to evaluate an individual under these circumstances.
I understand that the 2021 Jags are terrible but they're not the worst team ever.

The 2020 Bengals were really bad. The 2019 Bengals were godawful. I'm sure the 2021 Jags are worse, but I don't think by orders of magnitude worse.

2019 Cincy (2-14): #26 offense, #29 defense
2020 Cincy (4-11-1): #29 offense, #26 defense

2020 Jax (1-15): #28 offense, #31 defense
2021 Jax (2-14): #27 offense, #21 defense

So I don't know...it doesn't seem too far off to me. Not enough to explain the VAST difference in performance between rookie Joe Burrow and rookie Trevor Lawrence.
 

DJnVa

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Updated totals:

Jones: 332/491, 67.6%, 3540 yards, 21/12 TD/INT, 92.5 rating--THIS WEEK: 22/30, 227 yards, 3/0 TD/INT

Lawrence: 336/560, 58.7%, 3418 yards, 10/17 TD/INT, 69.6 rating (also rushed for 317 yards, 2 TDs)--THIS WEEK: 17/27, 193 yards, 1/3 TD/INT.

Wilson: 206/363, 56.7%, 2247 yards, 8/11 TD/INT, 69.9 rating--THIS WEEK: 19/33, 234 yards, 1/0 TD/INT.

Fields: 159/270, 58.9%, 1870 yards, 7/10 TD/INT, 73.2 rating (also rushed for 420 yards, 2 TDs)--THIS WEEK: DNP

Lance: 41/71, 57.7%, 603 yards, 5/2 TD/INT, 97.3 rating (also rushed for 168 yards, 1 TD)--THIS WEEK: 16/23, 249 yards, 2/1 TD/INT, 31 yards rushing.

Mills: 240/361, 66.5%, 2363 yards, 13/10 TD/INT, 85.2 rating--THIS WEEK: 21/32, 163 yards, 1/1 TD/INT
 

DanoooME

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Watching the game yesterday. I saw Jags receivers bouncing balls off their helmets, hands, etc. I think I remember they have had more drops than any other team by a wide margin. Their coach most of the season was a true joke, their talent level is awful across the board. I’m willing to give Lawrence a little slack overall, reset and try again next year
The Jags have 28 drops in 551 targets (5.1%). That rate is 22nd in the league (lowest is best). And the total is 11th most in the league. So it doesn't seem like their receivers are any worse than others in terms of drops. They may suck in other ways, but the worst in terms of drop rate are the Saints and Giants at 6.0% (two teams definitely with poor receivers), and the worst in terms of total drops are the Giants, Chiefs, and Chargers. The latter two don't have bad receiving options. Here's the whole chart (had to put it together manually).

TeamTargetsDropsRate
Packers535112.1%
Seahawks448122.7%
Patriots494142.8%
Texans491153.1%
Ravens559203.6%
Cardinals531193.6%
Vikings557203.6%
Broncos493183.7%
Falcons524214.0%
Lions535224.1%
WFT517224.3%
Titans490214.3%
Bengals511224.3%
Browns439194.3%
Raiders570254.4%
Bucs678304.4%
Cowboys609274.4%
Bills578284.8%
Rams570284.9%
Eagles434225.1%
Colts473245.1%
Jags551285.1%
Steelers563295.2%
Jets562295.2%
Dolphins578315.4%
49ers465255.4%
Chiefs595325.4%
Chargers595325.4%
Bears478265.4%
Panthers533315.8%
Saints451276.0%
Giants534326.0%
 

PedrosRedGlove

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I understand that the 2021 Jags are terrible but they're not the worst team ever.

The 2020 Bengals were really bad. The 2019 Bengals were godawful. I'm sure the 2021 Jags are worse, but I don't think by orders of magnitude worse.

2019 Cincy (2-14): #26 offense, #29 defense
2020 Cincy (4-11-1): #29 offense, #26 defense

2020 Jax (1-15): #28 offense, #31 defense
2021 Jax (2-14): #27 offense, #21 defense

So I don't know...it doesn't seem too far off to me. Not enough to explain the VAST difference in performance between rookie Joe Burrow and rookie Trevor Lawrence.
This doesn't tell the whole picture for me. There's a reason I said "most dysfunctional" rather than just "worst." They're both terrible teams, no argument there.

Burrow still had two receivers to throw to, Higgins and Boyd, younger and arguably better than Marvin Jones, along with A.J. Green. Zac Taylor and Brian Callahan both have reputable careers as NFL offensive/QB coaches over the last decade. The Bengals, while terrible in '19 & '20, were a competitive team for most of Dalton's career before that. Outside of 2017, the Jaguars have been abysmal for a decade... and then enter Urban Meyer...

I'm not sure how much that explains the difference, but I do think Jacksonville is a unique situation of a completely rudderless organization this year.
 

BaseballJones

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Marvin Jones has been a solid receiver in the NFL. Nothing wrong with him at all.

Cincy, meanwhile:

2016: 6-9-1
2017: 7-9 (32nd ranked offense)
2018: 6-10 (26th ranked offense, 32nd ranked defense)
2019: 2-14 (29th ranked offense, 26th ranked defense)

I mean, Joe Burrow was NOT, in 2020, joining anything remotely resembling a good team. The last good Bengals team prior to this year was the 2015 squad, which is an ETERNITY ago in NFL terms.

2021 Jacksonville is probably worse. But not by THAT much to explain the difference between Burrow's rookie year and Lawrence's rookie year performances.
 

Cellar-Door

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Marvin Jones has been a solid receiver in the NFL. Nothing wrong with him at all.

Cincy, meanwhile:

2016: 6-9-1
2017: 7-9 (32nd ranked offense)
2018: 6-10 (26th ranked offense, 32nd ranked defense)
2019: 2-14 (29th ranked offense, 26th ranked defense)

I mean, Joe Burrow was NOT, in 2020, joining anything remotely resembling a good team. The last good Bengals team prior to this year was the 2015 squad, which is an ETERNITY ago in NFL terms.

2021 Jacksonville is probably worse. But not by THAT much to explain the difference between Burrow's rookie year and Lawrence's rookie year performances.
Coaching matters a lot, I think the Jags have less talent than the Bengals did as well, but they also hired a completely lost coach, and a dysfunctional staff. Now also, Lawrence hasn;t been as pro-ready as Burrow, but I would say his situation is a lot worse. Lawrence has not played well, but I do think his situation is pretty untenable. He has one of the worse pass-catching corps in the league, a bad O-line, a bad coach, a subpar coordinator, everything is a mess there. Now... he also is struggling with some NFL reads and it's leading to picks, and I have concerns about some of his decisions and mechanics. But I think on a team with WRs/TEs who got separation, and better play design he'd look better.
 

cshea

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I thought Lawrence was really bad yesterday. It reminded me of some of the Darnold games against the Pats. First pick was an awful throw to an open receiver in the flat. 2nd pick was another terrible throw and/or ball placement. Jackson was outside, he might've had a chance if he threw the ball to the inside. Maybe there's some blame here on the receiver for stopping a route or whatever, but all in all a terrible throw. Dugger pick he just didn't read the play well and must not have seen Dugger. He also threw a lot of balls into coverage yesterday. There was the early one he thrw that Bentley broke up and may have broken up a pick for Dugger on the play. The early bomb to Treadwell was into double coverage.

The talent is clear to see, the arm strength and mobility, and his pre-NFL resume has been exemplary. I wouldn't write him off given the situation he's been put in but that was really ugly yesterday. Khan has to nail this hire, and I'm not sure I'd trust him to do it. They really, really need an offensive mind who has experience working with and developing young QB's. I think Bienemy would be a great hire, but I don't recall seeing him on their request list.
 

BaseballJones

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Coaching matters a lot, I think the Jags have less talent than the Bengals did as well, but they also hired a completely lost coach, and a dysfunctional staff. Now also, Lawrence hasn;t been as pro-ready as Burrow, but I would say his situation is a lot worse. Lawrence has not played well, but I do think his situation is pretty untenable. He has one of the worse pass-catching corps in the league, a bad O-line, a bad coach, a subpar coordinator, everything is a mess there. Now... he also is struggling with some NFL reads and it's leading to picks, and I have concerns about some of his decisions and mechanics. But I think on a team with WRs/TEs who got separation, and better play design he'd look better.
Well yes, with better coaching, better OL, and better receivers, Lawrence would look better. Uh...of course.

The point is that even if Jacksonville's situation right now is worse than Cincy's was when Burrow came on the scene, it's not THAT worse. I showed you where Cincy ranked in the league in the years leading up to Burrow's arrival. Terrible. Awful. No way to sugarcoat that. They were abysmal. Which is why, of course, they had the #1 pick with which to select Burrow. They were't a decent team that just had one bad unfortunate season that led to the worst record in football. They were abjectly AWFUL. And getting WORSE. Look at their trend from 2016-2019. At least in 2016 their league rankings on offense and defense were decent. But from there they just got terrible beyond belief.

During the three years prior to Burrow's arrival, Cincy didn't have a single unit ranking (off/def, pts/yds) that ranked as highly as Jacksonville's #21 defense this year.

The delta between Jax and Cincy just isn't big enough to explain the HUGE gap between rookie Burrow and rookie Lawrence.
 

Super Nomario

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Marvin Jones is fine, the rest of Jacksonville's receivers are not. Lawrence made Laquon Treadwell look semi-competent yesterday. Tavon Austin played prominent snaps. DJ Chark was supposed to be the #1 receiver and he's been on IR since Week 5.

And it's not just the WRs - the Jaguars were down to their fourth-string RB (Robinson, Etienne, and Hyde are all on IR) and third-string TE (Dan Arnold is on IR and James O'Shaughnessey was out).
 

Cellar-Door

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Well yes, with better coaching, better OL, and better receivers, Lawrence would look better. Uh...of course.

The point is that even if Jacksonville's situation right now is worse than Cincy's was when Burrow came on the scene, it's not THAT worse. I showed you where Cincy ranked in the league in the years leading up to Burrow's arrival. Terrible. Awful. No way to sugarcoat that. They were abysmal. Which is why, of course, they had the #1 pick with which to select Burrow. They were't a decent team that just had one bad unfortunate season that led to the worst record in football. They were abjectly AWFUL. And getting WORSE. Look at their trend from 2016-2019. At least in 2016 their league rankings on offense and defense were decent. But from there they just got terrible beyond belief.

During the three years prior to Burrow's arrival, Cincy didn't have a single unit ranking (off/def, pts/yds) that ranked as highly as Jacksonville's #21 defense this year.

The delta between Jax and Cincy just isn't big enough to explain the HUGE gap between rookie Burrow and rookie Lawrence.
I mean, no, nor did I say it did, I just pointed out it explains SOME of it. Burrow was more NFL ready and played well, he also was put in position to succeed by his coaches and skill players.

Also, CInci turned over 40% of their line, added 2 top WRs (Higgins and AJ Green who had missed the previous year) and 2 new TEs. They completely rebuilt the offense from the previous year. The Jaguars added Marvin Jones and got worse at TE.
 

tims4wins

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I mean, no, nor did I say it did, I just pointed out it explains SOME of it. Burrow was more NFL ready and played well, he also was put in position to succeed by his coaches and skill players.

Also, CInci turned over 40% of their line, added 2 top WRs (Higgins and AJ Green who had missed the previous year) and 2 new TEs. They completely rebuilt the offense from the previous year. The Jaguars added Marvin Jones and got worse at TE.
Why do you say Burrow was more NFL ready? Lawrence was on the Peyton-Luck scale of draft hype. We knew for years he'd be the first pick when he came out. Burrow kind of came out of nowhere.
 

MillarTime

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Horrific coaching and supporting cast for sure, but Lawrence was absolutely terrible yesterday. What jumped off the screen was the complete lack of accuracy / ball placement on many of his throws. To my eyes, he seemed to miss a lot of throws badly and had very little touch / feel on his throws when needed. Zach Wilson has clearly improved over the last few weeks, I hope Trevor isn't permanently damaged from this year.

The juxtaposition with Mac was really eye-opening to me.
 

BaseballJones

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Lawrence played in a dominant, NFL style offense on one of the best teams in college football - on par with Alabama. He was as much a lock #1 draft pick as we've had in memory. He could make all the throws in college, read all the defenses, and he could run. He was as NFL-ready as any QB we've seen in college in years.

Comparing 2020 Cincy with 2021 Jax again, just the offense (because Jax' defense this year is a respectable #21)...

Yards per game
- 20 Cin: 319.8 (#29)
- 21 Jax: 304.6 (#26)

Points per game
- 20 Cin: 19.4 (#29)
- 21 Jax: 14.2 (#32)

Pass yards per game
- 20 Cin: 215.5 (#27)
- 21 Jax: 201.2 (#24)

Rush yards per game
- 20 Cin: 104.3 (#24)
- 21 Jax: 103.4 (#23)

The offenses look very similar except for Cincy's edge in points. But now let's look at the QBs on those teams.

Rookie QB:
- 20 Cin (Burrow): 264-404 (65.3%), 2,688 yds, 6.7 y/a, 13 td, 5 int, 89.8 rating, 21.3 pts/g
- 20 Cin (non-Burrow): 108-177 (61.0%), 1,105 yds, 6.2 y/a, 6 td, 6 int, 76.1 rating, 16.3 pts/g
- 21 Jax (Lawrence): 336-570 (58.9%), 3,418 yds, 6.0 y/a, 10 td, 17 int, 69.6 rating, 14.2 pts/g

I mean, on that Cincy team it's clear that there was a huge gap between Burrow in his 10 games and the other QBs in their 6 games. It wasn't just the talent around Burrow, because the other QBs didn't exactly play well with that talent.

There's no way around the fact that even taking into consideration the difference between the 2020 Bengals and 2021 Jaguars (which exists, but isn't THAT big), that Joe Burrow as a rookie was WAY better than Trevor Lawrence has been as a rookie. Like...not even close. The delta between the two teams in no way explains this difference, though it obviously is a contributing factor.
 

Cellar-Door

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Why do you say Burrow was more NFL ready? Lawrence was on the Peyton-Luck scale of draft hype. We knew for years he'd be the first pick when he came out. Burrow kind of came out of nowhere.
I think Burrow had more refined mechanics and LSU ran a lot more of a pro-style route tree. LSU with Burrow ran an offense where the route concepts were pretty advanced, 3 level stuff, it was based on the Saints offense I think.
 

JCizzle

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I'm not sure if there's an age correlation in the NFL like the NBA, but I think Burrow was also over 2 years older than Lawrence when drafted?
 

johnmd20

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Why do you say Burrow was more NFL ready? Lawrence was on the Peyton-Luck scale of draft hype. We knew for years he'd be the first pick when he came out. Burrow kind of came out of nowhere.
Burrow also had one of the best years in college history.
 

BaseballJones

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Burrow also had one of the best years in college history.
Yeah that's a good reminder. Burrow's last year at LSU is just mind-numbingly sick.

402-527 (76.3%), 5,671 yds, 10.8 y/a, 60 td, 6 int

If you put an NFL passer rating number on that, it would be: 143.7.

Yes you read that number right. That's getting very close to a perfect passer rating. I mean....what in the world?

Of course, he had RIDICULOUS weapons at his disposal as well. But still. Holy smokes.

EDIT: His receivers that year...

- Ja'Marr Chase: 84 rec, 1,780 yds, 20(!) td
- Justin Jefferson: 111 rec, 1,540 yds, 18 td
- Terrance Marshall: 46 rec, 671 yds, 13 td
- Thaddeus Moss: 47 rec, 570 yds, 4 td

On a thoroughly mediocre LSU team this year, Marshall still had 48 rec, 731 yds, and 10 td. So he's an incredible third receiver.
 
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Rudy's Curve

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I'm not sure if there's an age correlation in the NFL like the NBA, but I think Burrow was also over 2 years older than Lawrence when drafted
I think this is important to take into consideration. Burrow is almost three years older, which obviously means he was two years older when drafted. His weapons last year weren't elite by any means (Higgins had his rookie ups and downs, Green looked completely finished and the OL was even worse than it is now), but he was still able to put up a respectable season for a rookie.

I do have to admit I'm puzzled by Lawrence struggling to this degree, even as a 21/22 year-old rookie on an awful team. He actually started eight more games in college than Burrow and was the most hyped prospect since at least Luck and probably Peyton. His lack of weapons and having Meyer certainly didn't help, but he hasn't done anything either since Meyer was fired and they were supposed to have a pretty respectable OL (maybe that went in shambles too). Peyton was also pretty awful his rookie year (28 INT, 71.4 rating), so maybe there's a chance for Lawrence to still turn this around in a big way but man, he's been bad.
 

Mystic Merlin

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What’s concerning about Lawrence statistically is he’s like 25 points below the avg QB rating for 2021. Peyton was like 7 points below the avg QB rating for 1998. We all know the average baseline of QB performance is much higher now for a variety of reasons (rules, for one), and that only makes Lawrence’s performance look worse relative to subpar rookie seasons for other eventual top QBs.
 

Rudy's Curve

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What’s concerning about Lawrence statistically is he’s like 25 points below the avg QB rating for 2021. Peyton was like 7 points below the avg QB rating for 1998. We all know the average baseline of QB performance is much higher now for a variety of reasons (rules, for one), and that only makes Lawrence’s performance look worse relative to subpar rookie seasons for other eventual top QBs.
Yeah, upon further review Peyton wasn't bad as a rookie - obviously the picks were high, but he still had a 96 ANY/A+ which is completely fine for a rookie on a bad team. Lawrence is at 76, which is awful. I'd be curious to see how many QBs who were that bad as rookies went on to do anything.

Edit: Peyton also faced a really tough slate of defenses - Miami was elite, the Jets were very good, the Pats were above-average and the Bills were average so I guess it should've been obvious given his pedigree that he was going to be great. Lawrence, on the other hand, has not.
 
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tims4wins

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Burrow also had one of the best years in college history.
Right, but on September 1 2019 no one had him as the #1 pick. Lawrence has been the #1 pick since forever.
I think this is important to take into consideration. Burrow is almost three years older, which obviously means he was two years older when drafted. His weapons last year weren't elite by any means (Higgins had his rookie ups and downs, Green looked completely finished and the OL was even worse than it is now), but he was still able to put up a respectable season for a rookie.

I do have to admit I'm puzzled by Lawrence struggling to this degree, even as a 21/22 year-old rookie on an awful team. He actually started eight more games in college than Burrow and was the most hyped prospect since at least Luck and probably Peyton. His lack of weapons and having Meyer certainly didn't help, but he hasn't done anything either since Meyer was fired and they were supposed to have a pretty respectable OL (maybe that went in shambles too). Peyton was also pretty awful his rookie year (28 INT, 71.4 rating), so maybe there's a chance for Lawrence to still turn this around in a big way but man, he's been bad.
Plus this point - Lawrence played more college games than Burrow.
 

johnmd20

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Right, but on September 1 2019 no one had him as the #1 pick. Lawrence has been the #1 pick since forever.
Sure. But Joe Burrow also had one of the greatest QB seasons in college football history and won the Heisman Trophy.

Trying to gauge Lawrence is really tough right now. Jacksonville is truly atrocious. But, still, a QB should still be able to show something. Mike White showed something on the Jets. Davis Mills on Houston. Lawrence has 2 TDs in his last 9 games. That is not a small sample. Even Ben R has 14 Tds in his last 9 games and he's a statue who can't throw.
 

tims4wins

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Sure. But Joe Burrow also had one of the greatest QB seasons in college football history and won the Heisman Trophy.

Trying to gauge Lawrence is really tough right now. Jacksonville is truly atrocious. But, still, a QB should still be able to show something. Mike White showed something on the Jets. Davis Mills on Houston. Lawrence has 2 TDs in his last 9 games. That is not a small sample. Even Ben R has 14 Tds in his last 9 games and he's a statue who can't throw.
Danny Wuerffel did too once upon a time. His 2019 season in and of itself doesn't prove anything in terms of him being NFL-ready
 

tims4wins

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Wueffel was drafted in the 4th round.
Your point seemed to be that he had a great season and won the Heisman so he was more NFL ready than Lawrence. His 2019 season in and of itself doesn’t mean anything in terms of NFL readiness. Tebow was a 1st round pick too
 

Jungleland

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Shenault was solid as a rookie last year (58/600). Marvin Jones has always been up and down but finished 2020 excellent at times with Stafford. Chark was a thousand yard receiver as recently as 2019 and had 7 total receptions for ~160 yards in the 3 games he played this year (got hurt early in his 4th I believe). I won't disagree that Jacksonville has a weak receiving core made weaker by the early loss of their true #1, but I think it's fair to say Trevor has made them look worse than they are, too.
 

johnmd20

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Your point seemed to be that he had a great season and won the Heisman so he was more NFL ready than Lawrence. His 2019 season in and of itself doesn’t mean anything in terms of NFL readiness. Tebow was a 1st round pick too
You're saying just because Burrow came out of nowhere his senior season, he wasn't a locked and loaded NFL starter. But he was, he was drafted first overall, it was a no brainer first pick, and he's already proved he is a locked and loaded NFL starter. And he's quite possibly a superstar.
 

PedrosRedGlove

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Marvin Jones has been a solid receiver in the NFL. Nothing wrong with him at all.

Cincy, meanwhile:

2016: 6-9-1
2017: 7-9 (32nd ranked offense)
2018: 6-10 (26th ranked offense, 32nd ranked defense)
2019: 2-14 (29th ranked offense, 26th ranked defense)

I mean, Joe Burrow was NOT, in 2020, joining anything remotely resembling a good team. The last good Bengals team prior to this year was the 2015 squad, which is an ETERNITY ago in NFL terms.

2021 Jacksonville is probably worse. But not by THAT much to explain the difference between Burrow's rookie year and Lawrence's rookie year performances.
I feel like you're focusing on the raw numbers and results a little too much. Yes, on paper the 2021 Jaguars are not drastically worse than the 2020 Bengals. But with any context it's pretty clear to me that Jacksonville this year was different. Urban Meyer just put in the single biggest joke performance we've ever seen from an NFL head coach, with numerous distractions and a public plea from Lawrence at one point to try to keep his only weapon on the field in James Robinson.

I'm not saying that accounts for ALL of the difference between Burrow and Lawrence. But the situation in Jacksonville was chaotic beyond imagine, and makes it really, really difficult to confidently discern how much to put on Lawrence. It's really unfortunate for him but it's pretty reasonable to take a step back under those circumstances, it was a lost year for the entire organization.
 

tims4wins

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You're saying just because Burrow came out of nowhere his senior season, he wasn't a locked and loaded NFL starter. But he was, he was drafted first overall, it was a no brainer first pick, and he's already proved he is a locked and loaded NFL starter. And he's quite possibly a superstar.
That's all correct, but there's also the point that the Bengals didn't start him immediately. And while based on his play this year maybe that was a resoundingly successful move, they determined it wasn't best for him to play from day 1, whereas the Jags (maybe incorrectly) decided Lawrence should play from day 1.

Anyway, this is enough of a diversion. I buy any argument that Burrow was more ready due to system, because I don't know enough about Clemson vs. LSU offense. I just don't buy that he was more ready because he had a better final year in college, when Lawrence played more games and was hyped as the future #1 pick and once in a generation talent for several years.
 

Super Nomario

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That's all correct, but there's also the point that the Bengals didn't start him immediately. And while based on his play this year maybe that was a resoundingly successful move, they determined it wasn't best for him to play from day 1, whereas the Jags (maybe incorrectly) decided Lawrence should play from day 1.

Anyway, this is enough of a diversion. I buy any argument that Burrow was more ready due to system, because I don't know enough about Clemson vs. LSU offense. I just don't buy that he was more ready because he had a better final year in college, when Lawrence played more games and was hyped as the future #1 pick and once in a generation talent for several years.
Burrow did start Week 1 as a rookie.
 

cshea

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That's all correct, but there's also the point that the Bengals didn't start him immediately. And while based on his play this year maybe that was a resoundingly successful move, they determined it wasn't best for him to play from day 1, whereas the Jags (maybe incorrectly) decided Lawrence should play from day 1.

Anyway, this is enough of a diversion. I buy any argument that Burrow was more ready due to system, because I don't know enough about Clemson vs. LSU offense. I just don't buy that he was more ready because he had a better final year in college, when Lawrence played more games and was hyped as the future #1 pick and once in a generation talent for several years.
Burrow started right out of the gate.
 

BaseballJones

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@PedrosRedGlove You can say Jacksonville was different, and yes, you make a good point. But at the end of the day, the product on the field is the product on the field. For all of Urban Meyer's flaws and dysfunctions, the Jaguars have fielded the #21 defense in the NFL - which isn't good, but it's not objectively terrible either.

I'm absolutely in the "write this year off for Lawrence" camp, because of all the reasons you cite. But I'm also in the "despite it all, he really showed virtually nothing all year and that has me worried" camp, because other QBs have entered into awful situations too. Some of them did better than Lawrence (see Burrow), but others couldn't handle it and their NFL careers were over relatively quickly. I worry a little (not a lot...yet...but a little) about Lawrence. The guy didn't really have a single game that would qualify as "really good". He had a couple of pretty good games, but that's it. The rest have been absolutely terrible.

I mean, even Tim Couch had a few really good games his rookie year with the 2-13 godawful Browns.
 

Cellar-Door

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Yeah, upon further review Peyton wasn't bad as a rookie - obviously the picks were high, but he still had a 96 ANY/A+ which is completely fine for a rookie on a bad team. Lawrence is at 76, which is awful. I'd be curious to see how many QBs who were that bad as rookies went on to do anything.

Edit: Peyton also faced a really tough slate of defenses - Miami was elite, the Jets were very good, the Pats were above-average and the Bills were average so I guess it should've been obvious given his pedigree that he was going to be great. Lawrence, on the other hand, has not.
Starting to look through non-bust QBs, so I included everyone who was a playoff starter or pro-bowl maker

Brees had 81 in his 2nd year (he actually was better as a rookie).
Schaub didn't play much, but put up a 60
Eli Manning put up a 74
Alex Smith- 49
Matt Stafford- 75
Mark Sanchez - 80
Sam Bradford- 88 (but 82 year 2)
Kirk Cousins- not a rookie but year 2 (69)
Bortles- 69
Derek Carr- 83
Goff- 52
Wentz- 85
Josh Allen - 77



I left out some I'm sure. Couple guys in there saw big year 2 jumps: Allen, Goff, Stafford
 

johnmd20

mad dog
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@PedrosRedGlove You can say Jacksonville was different, and yes, you make a good point. But at the end of the day, the product on the field is the product on the field. For all of Urban Meyer's flaws and dysfunctions, the Jaguars have fielded the #21 defense in the NFL - which isn't good, but it's not objectively terrible either.

I'm absolutely in the "write this year off for Lawrence" camp, because of all the reasons you cite. But I'm also in the "despite it all, he really showed virtually nothing all year and that has me worried" camp, because other QBs have entered into awful situations too. Some of them did better than Lawrence (see Burrow), but others couldn't handle it and their NFL careers were over relatively quickly. I worry a little (not a lot...yet...but a little) about Lawrence. The guy didn't really have a single game that would qualify as "really good". He had a couple of pretty good games, but that's it. The rest have been absolutely terrible.

I mean, even Tim Couch had a few really good games his rookie year with the 2-13 godawful Browns.
Dude. Sometimes the numbers don't tell the story, sometimes they do. Jacksonville's defense is 22nd because most teams can stop playing after the 2nd quarter.

edit.- and, Jesus, they have played some bad teams. Jets, Houston, and Atlanta in the last 6 weeks. They lost to the Jets,, Atlanta, and Houston, in fact. They have 10 double digit losses. This team is really an awful team.
 

Super Nomario

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Nov 5, 2000
14,013
Mansfield MA
@PedrosRedGlove You can say Jacksonville was different, and yes, you make a good point. But at the end of the day, the product on the field is the product on the field. For all of Urban Meyer's flaws and dysfunctions, the Jaguars have fielded the #21 defense in the NFL - which isn't good, but it's not objectively terrible either.

I'm absolutely in the "write this year off for Lawrence" camp, because of all the reasons you cite. But I'm also in the "despite it all, he really showed virtually nothing all year and that has me worried" camp, because other QBs have entered into awful situations too. Some of them did better than Lawrence (see Burrow), but others couldn't handle it and their NFL careers were over relatively quickly. I worry a little (not a lot...yet...but a little) about Lawrence. The guy didn't really have a single game that would qualify as "really good". He had a couple of pretty good games, but that's it. The rest have been absolutely terrible.

I mean, even Tim Couch had a few really good games his rookie year with the 2-13 godawful Browns.
I think this is fair. Even if, after this rookie year, one is unwilling to change the ceiling or the average projection for what they expected out of Lawrence pre-draft, the chance that he's a complete bust has to have increased. He's been very bad, and bad across the board - versus, say, Justin Fields, who has so many negative plays that he's probably been worse overall but has also had more frequent positive plays.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Jul 15, 2005
37,328
Hingham, MA
My bad on Burrow, I forgot that he missed time mid-season.

Re: Jacksonville's D, they did hold the Bills to 6.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
24,651
Dude. Sometimes the numbers don't tell the story, sometimes they do. Jacksonville's defense is 22nd because most teams can stop playing after the 2nd quarter.

edit.- and, Jesus, they have played some bad teams. Jets, Houston, and Atlanta in the last 6 weeks. They lost to the Jets,, Atlanta, and Houston, in fact. They have 10 double digit losses. This team is really an awful team.
Yes, Jax has been terrible. They've also beaten Miami and Buffalo. Go figure.

And your take that their opponents stop playing after the first half isn't really true. (what a fun rabbit trail this is, btw!) Here's their game-by-game score at the half:

at Hou (L, 37-21): Hou, 27-7. Verdict: Yes they probably eased up on the gas at that point.
vs Den (L, 23-13): Den, 10-7. Verdict: No way did Den take their foot off the gas. They put up 10 points in the third quarter.
vs Ari (L, 31-19): Jax, 13-7. Verdict: Obviously Ari didn't take their foot off the gas. Nor after the third, at which time the score was 24-20 Arizona.
at Cin (L, 24-21): Jax, 14-0. Verdict: Obviously Cincy didn't take their foot off the gas.
vs Ten (L, 37-19): Ten, 24-13. Verdict: No way did Ten take their foot off the gas. It was still a game at that point.
at Mia (W, 23-20): Mia, 13-10. Verdict: No way did Mia take their foot off the gas. In fact, they lost the game.
vs Sea (L, 31-7): Sea, 17-0. Verdict: Maybe Sea took their foot off the gas. But probably not until they scored again in the third to make it 24-0.
at Buf (W, 9-6): Tie, 6-6. Verdict: No way Buffalo took their foot off the gas.
at Ind (L, 23-17): Ind, 20-9. Verdict: No way Indy took their foot off the gas. They may have felt like they were in pretty good shape but they didn't stop trying to score. That was still a game. In fact, Jax cut it to 20-17 before Indy kicked a FG with just over 2 minutes left.
at SF (L, 30-10): SF, 20-3. Verdict: SF may have eased up after the half. But again, probably not until they got a TD in the third Q.
vs Atl (L, 21-14): Atl, 14-3. Verdict: No way Atlanta would have eased up on the gas.
at LAR (L, 37-7): LAR, 16-7. Verdict: Rams didn't ease up. They poured it on, in fact, in the third quarter. They scored 21 second half points. They didn't ease up - they went full throttle.
at Ten (L, 20-0): Ten, 10-0. Verdict: The Titans didn't ease up after the half, not up just 10-0.
at Hou (L, 30-16): Hou, 20-10. Verdict: the Texans probably didn't ease up at all. In fact, with just 2:22 left in the game, Mills threw a 43-yard TD pass to Cooks. Clearly they were still trying to score, otherwise that play wouldn't have made any sense at all.
vs NYJ (L, 26-21): NYJ, 13-12. Verdict: obviously the Jets weren't easing up at all.
at NE (L, 50-10): NE, 28-3. Verdict: yeah, NE probably eased up, but it wasn't til the 4th quarter when they put Hoyer in.

So there were a lot of double digit losses by Jax this year, but there were only like 2 games where their opponents probably eased up after two quarters.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,328
Hingham, MA
This thread inspired me to look into Andrew Luck and the 2011-2012 Colts.

The 2011 Colts went 2-14, scored 243 points (28th) and gave up 430 points (also 28th).

Luck started every game as a rookie. The Colts won 11 games (+9 over 2011), scored 357 points (+7.125 per game, 18th), and gave up 387 points (21st).

Luck himself only completed 54.1% of his passes, but for 4,374 yards (7.0 Y/A), 23 TD, 18 INT, 76.5 passer rating, 5.66 ANY/A.

The 2020 Jags went 1-15, scored 306 points (30th) and gave up 492 points (31st).

Lawrence has started all 16 games as a rookie. He is 2-14 (+1 over 2020), they scored 227 points (-79 / 4.93375 per game vs. last year), and gave up 446 points (31st).

Lawrence is at 58.9% for 3,418 yards (6.0 Y/A), 10 TD, 17 INT, 69.6 rating, 4.36 ANY/A.

Luck was the last "generational" QB prospect. While his career overall was underwhelming, he was a pretty good player overall.

Trevor Lawrence has made the Jags offense significantly worse than it was in 2020. Not a good sign for his future.
 

johnmd20

mad dog
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Dec 30, 2003
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Yes, Jax has been terrible. They've also beaten Miami and Buffalo. Go figure.

And your take that their opponents stop playing after the first half isn't really true. (what a fun rabbit trail this is, btw!) Here's their game-by-game score at the half:

at Hou (L, 37-21): Hou, 27-7. Verdict: Yes they probably eased up on the gas at that point.
vs Den (L, 23-13): Den, 10-7. Verdict: No way did Den take their foot off the gas. They put up 10 points in the third quarter.
vs Ari (L, 31-19): Jax, 13-7. Verdict: Obviously Ari didn't take their foot off the gas. Nor after the third, at which time the score was 24-20 Arizona.
at Cin (L, 24-21): Jax, 14-0. Verdict: Obviously Cincy didn't take their foot off the gas.10
vs Ten (L, 37-19): Ten, 24-13. Verdict: No way did Ten take their foot off the gas. It was still a game at that point.
at Mia (W, 23-20): Mia, 13-10. Verdict: No way did Mia take their foot off the gas. In fact, they lost the game.
vs Sea (L, 31-7): Sea, 17-0. Verdict: Maybe Sea took their foot off the gas. But probably not until they scored again in the third to make it 24-0.
at Buf (W, 9-6): Tie, 6-6. Verdict: No way Buffalo took their foot off the gas.
at Ind (L, 23-17): Ind, 20-9. Verdict: No way Indy took their foot off the gas. They may have felt like they were in pretty good shape but they didn't stop trying to score. That was still a game. In fact, Jax cut it to 20-17 before Indy kicked a FG with just over 2 minutes left.
at SF (L, 30-10): SF, 20-3. Verdict: SF may have eased up after the half. But again, probably not until they got a TD in the third Q.
vs Atl (L, 21-14): Atl, 14-3. Verdict: No way Atlanta would have eased up on the gas.
at LAR (L, 37-7): LAR, 16-7. Verdict: Rams didn't ease up. They poured it on, in fact, in the third quarter. They scored 21 second half points. They didn't ease up - they went full throttle.
at Ten (L, 20-0): Ten, 10-0. Verdict: The Titans didn't ease up after the half, not up just 10-0.
at Hou (L, 30-16): Hou, 20-10. Verdict: the Texans probably didn't ease up at all. In fact, with just 2:22 left in the game, Mills threw a 43-yard TD pass to Cooks. Clearly they were still trying to score, otherwise that play wouldn't have made any sense at all.
vs NYJ (L, 26-21): NYJ, 13-12. Verdict: obviously the Jets weren't easing up at all.
at NE (L, 50-10): NE, 28-3. Verdict: yeah, NE probably eased up, but it wasn't til the 4th quarter when they put Hoyer in.

So there were a lot of double digit losses by Jax this year, but there were only like 2 games where their opponents probably eased up after two quarters.
This is a great rabbit hole, nice work. I do see a rundown of games that had the Jags leading at halftime a total of 0 times in the last 12 games. And this team has lost 10 games by double digits. I was being glib when I said nobody had to play them in the 2nd half.

And the fact remains this team is in disarray, from the top to the bottom.

With all of that said, I don't think we are even arguing. We all know Jacksonville sucks. It's just a matter of degree. Jacksonville did beat Buffalo, tho. What?
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,651
This is a great rabbit hole, nice work. I do see a rundown of games that had the Jags leading at halftime a total of 0 times in the last 12 games. And this team has lost 10 games by double digits. I was being glib when I said nobody had to play them in the 2nd half.

And the fact remains this team is in disarray, from the top to the bottom.

With all of that said, I don't think we are even arguing. We all know Jacksonville sucks. It's just a matter of degree. Jacksonville did beat Buffalo, tho. What?
LOL, yes we agree - Jacksonville sucks really badly. No two ways about that. And yeah, I have NO idea how they beat Buffalo.

But that is the kind of game that gives me hope that maybe, just maybe, the Jets can beat the Bills this coming week. I mean, it almost certainly won't happen. But...maybe?
 

NortheasternPJ

Member
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Nov 16, 2004
19,334
LOL, yes we agree - Jacksonville sucks really badly. No two ways about that. And yeah, I have NO idea how they beat Buffalo.

But that is the kind of game that gives me hope that maybe, just maybe, the Jets can beat the Bills this coming week. I mean, it almost certainly won't happen. But...maybe?
The Bills are an odd team. I can easily see them losing to NYJ or blowing them out. I took NYJ +17 today.
 

Zincman

Member
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Jul 31, 2006
433
New London
Asking SMU to weigh in because John's analysis is always credible. My own sense is when I watch Lawrence, I see more tools than skills. Coaches, scouts, fans are often mesmerized by tools, but skill development is paramount to the success at the highest level of any sport. When we were watching Mac's tape last year, one of the difficulties was watching him throw so often from a clean pocket to 4 or 5 NFL-type receivers running free which made it hard to discern his level of skill. Clearly, he has great skills despite less than 80 grade tools (sorry for the baseball terminology) which is why makeup, which is so hard to judge becomes so important to the development of an NFL QB. Some of that development is due to context......coaching, weapons, organizational stability, etc but it is largely a function of the athlete's own willingness and ability to take coaching, retain information, and build on progress made in each performance. There's a lot more than just tools. Tools help but Marino and Elway had to use more than tools to attain greatness. Meanwhile, guys like Brees and Montana became great by maximizing what tools they had with accompanying skill development. A certain 6th rd pick was not judged as particularly toolsy but had the path to greatness.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
24,651
There have been a ton of guys with great "tools" who couldn't make it as NFL quarterbacks. Can run, have a huge arm, etc. But they were unable to make sound decisions, or throw with touch.

Lawrence had one throw yesterday that was mind-bogglingly good. 42 seconds left in the second quarter. Ball at the Jax 14. Lawrence rolls right away from pressure. Fading away, throwing off his back foot with a guy in his face, he lofts one down the right side 36 yards downfield to Marvin Jones for a 22 yard completion. The throw was dropped right in the bucket, just barely over JC Jackson's hands, right in front of McCourty. Absolutely PERFECT pass, under duress.

He has ability.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
24,651
Speaking of Burrow...quick question: Why did his uniform not have his name on the back yesterday?