Tracking the rookie QBs
- Thread starter tims4wins
- Start date
I think the reason he's saying it is the same reason it wouldn't be said in other places, organizational competence and coaching competence.
Nobody there trusts Meyer, in part because he's full of shit. BB would never have a blanket "if you fumble you sit a series" policy, because it's stupid and lacks context. IF he did have a policy though he'd stick to it, he wouldn't apply the rules differently to different players. That's long been pointed to as a reason he's had such success. Guys are asked to do their job, and everyone from a ST fringe roster guy to Tom Brady was held to the same standards.
Meyer has a long reputation as a guy who plays favorites, and guys he likes get special treatment, and it's not just a "Star QBs don't get criticized" thing. If your young star runningback is getting treated one way, and your journeyman backup is treated differently because you like him.... you're losing the lockerroom. There has been the same talk all year, starting in camp when his team was pissed about stuff from Tebow on in terms of him being unprofessional.
I don't care if he's a rookie, Lawrence is sticking up for his guy, and probably voicing something that the lockerroom thinks, because he's the #1 pick QB who can, he'll be there next year no matter what, and he and everyone else knows it, which means he has an ability to voice the things his teammates might not. I have no doubt it came up internally too... Urban just ignored it and bullshitted in the press about how it was his policy.
I think the bigger issue is Urban lost the locker room around week 5? 4? 1? or so and there is a lot of dysfunction. I am not going to pretend I follow all 32 teams - I take a lot of stuff I read and listen to. FWIW he’s been blasted for his offensive scheme this year. He’s trying to run his passing attack in a way that emphasizes speed but the problem is none of his guys are fast. He doesn’t make a lot of week to week game plan type adjustments. It’s what you would expect from a college team but not an NFL team. If you don’t build a scheme around what your guys can actually do what good are you? The worst part is he might even get a chance to coach in year 2 as the rumblings are no one is in a rush to show him the door.
Updated totals:
Jones: 270/384, 70.3%, 2869 yards, 16/8 TD/INT, 97.0 rating--THIS WEEK: Bye
Lawrence: 271/466, 58.2%, 2735 yards, 9/14 TD/INT, 68.9 rating (also rushed for 243 yards, 2 TDs)--THIS WEEK: 24/40, 221 yards, 0/4 TD/INT.
Wilson: 160/285, 56.1%, 1741 yards, 6/11 TD/INT, 65.3 rating--THIS WEEK: 19/42, 202 yards, 0/0 TD/INT.
Fields: 133/231, 57.6%, 1585 yards, 6/10 TD/INT, 69.3 rating (also rushed for 385 yards, 2 TDs)--THIS WEEK: 18/33, 224 yards, 2/2 TD/INT, 74 yards rushing.
Lance: 25/48, 52.1%, 354 yards, 3/1 TD/INT, 88.4 rating (also rushed for 137 yards, 1 TD)
Mills: 179/272, 65.8%, 1737 yards, 8/8 TD/INT, 81.1 rating--THIS WEEK: 33/49, 331 yards, 1/0 TD/INT
I think it's crazy that if Zach Wilson completes his next 100 passes, his completion percentage will still be lower than Jones.
If Jones goes 0 for his next 82 his completion percentage will match Lawrence's.
Jones: 270/384, 70.3%, 2869 yards, 16/8 TD/INT, 97.0 rating--THIS WEEK: Bye
Lawrence: 271/466, 58.2%, 2735 yards, 9/14 TD/INT, 68.9 rating (also rushed for 243 yards, 2 TDs)--THIS WEEK: 24/40, 221 yards, 0/4 TD/INT.
Wilson: 160/285, 56.1%, 1741 yards, 6/11 TD/INT, 65.3 rating--THIS WEEK: 19/42, 202 yards, 0/0 TD/INT.
Fields: 133/231, 57.6%, 1585 yards, 6/10 TD/INT, 69.3 rating (also rushed for 385 yards, 2 TDs)--THIS WEEK: 18/33, 224 yards, 2/2 TD/INT, 74 yards rushing.
Lance: 25/48, 52.1%, 354 yards, 3/1 TD/INT, 88.4 rating (also rushed for 137 yards, 1 TD)
Mills: 179/272, 65.8%, 1737 yards, 8/8 TD/INT, 81.1 rating--THIS WEEK: 33/49, 331 yards, 1/0 TD/INT
I think it's crazy that if Zach Wilson completes his next 100 passes, his completion percentage will still be lower than Jones.
If Jones goes 0 for his next 82 his completion percentage will match Lawrence's.
Any excuse to post this video (it's right up there with the The Day Bill Belichick Coached the Jets video)
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAQnJdOniCk
I'd worry that the Jaguars are absolutely ruining Lawrence, but the reality is, we've seen lots of QBs that turn out really good have awful rookie seasons. So they aren't exactly sealing his fate or anything, but yikes this is....uncomfortably bad for him.
I'm not sure this is actually true, at least if we focus on QBs who played most of their career in the 21st century with the more open passing game.
There are a number of QBs who had fairly awful rookie seasons who turned out pretty good (like a league average QB) - Eli Manning, Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith, Carson Wentz are examples.
There are also definitely QBs who had up and down rookie seasons who turned out really good (if we consider that a top 10 QB for a stretch of years) - like Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck.
I don't think there are many QBs who have been as bad as Lawrence (or Fields or Wilson for that matter) and turned out to be really good and the cases that exist were somewhat unusual circumstances. Josh Allen was terrible, but he is a bit of a unique case since he didn't play D1 football. Donovan McNabb was also really bad, but he only started six games so he didn't really get a chance to improve like a guy starting most of the year.
The number of guys who were awful as rookies and then just stayed bad is far far longer. Even if we're only thinking of pedigreed top half of the first round guys, you've got David Carr, Joey Harrington, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jamarcus Russell, Mark Sanchez, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Blake Bortles, etc.
I definitely wouldn't write off Lawrence, Fields, or Wilson but at this point I think we have to adjust our priors a bit and say that all of these guys are significant underdogs to ever be really good QBs (although you can't rule it out). Lawrence is the one I'd still be most optimistic about, simply because I think he has the most complete set of tools for the NFL game among the group.
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If the Pats were offered Lawrence straight up for Mac Jones, do you think Belichick would do it?
On the one hand, it's clear that Jones is already a solid NFL QB, and it's not clear that Lawrence is that or will be that. Jones seems to fit exactly what the Patriots want.
On the other hand, Lawrence was drafted first for a reason - he has much more in terms of tools than Mac does. And coming off his first year, there's still a lot of rookie contract left, and I bet BB and Josh would think they could absolutely "fix" Lawrence and unlock him in their system.
I don't have a strong feeling either way on this. Lawrence was one of the best QB prospects of the last 5-10 years so he is a bit unusual, I don't think it would be a big debate with most other QBs who were highly drafted and had a year like he has had. In Lawrence's case, BB/Josh would be tempted by his tools and the idea that they could put him in a better position to succeed. But I think they'd watch every Lawrence throw this year a thousand times and it would give them some genuine pause. And they'd also be hesitant to go away from a guy like Mac who was seemingly built in a lab to conform to their expectations for how a QB should work and carry himself off the field.
Tossup for me in the end.
It's a really small sample overall though, there aren't that many really good QBsThese are the modern ones, with the borderline guys with ?.
Rodgers- didn't play as a rookie
Mahomes- didn't play as a rookie
Dak- good rookie
Lamar?- half season, pretty bad as a passer
Stafford- terrible in a partial rookie season
Wilson- good rookie
Ryan- good rookie
Cousins?- 1 game as a rookie
Allen?- Bad rookie
Watson- good rookie
Luck- pretty good rookie
Tannehill?- Bad rookie.
Mixed bag overall.
The fact that so many QBs don't play their rookie years definitely makes this harder.
But I think the list here is kind of off-base in two ways. First, its only current players (other than Luck). More importantly, the relevant sample isn't the group of really good QBs but the group of QBs who played substantial minutes their rookie year. And that's not huge but its not tiny either if we're thinking about the last two decades.
Out of that group, there just aren't many QBs who were truly awful as rookies and turned out to be really good. Allen having never played D1, McNabb in six starts, Stafford if we want to consider him a really good QB. Contrast that to the (very non-exhaustive) list of QBs who were awful as rookies and just stayed pretty bad that I put in my previous post.
In comparison, when you look at guys who were middling (Luck, Peyton) to good (Ben, Dak, Russ, Cam, Ryan, Watson, Murray, Herbert) their rookie year you unsurprisingly see a lot more guys who turned out to be really good or in a case like Herbert seems likely to turn out that way.
I don't think there is a real case for considering this a mixed bag. If anything, there seems to be a pretty strong - although obviously not determinative - relationship. Performing really poorly as a rookie is a bad sign for your future prospects as an NFL QB.
Goff comes to mind as someone who bounced back from a horrible rookie year to play decently, but he’s more in the Bortles category of being slightly above average at best, and best didn’t last very long.
I agree it would be a very close call. Given that the Pats have now invested close to a year in Mac, and that one year of the cheap rookie deal is burned up (plus Mac making much less over the next 3-4 years), I’d lean no.
My point was, most QBs aren't really good, and the path to get there is pretty varied. Yes, more players who start bad stay bad, and more that start good stay good, but... I don't know that it's something you can really use to estimate what any individual is likely to do. Too varied a state of play, and way too much depends on things like.. supporting talent and coaching. I think it would be accurate to say that a QB who is terrible as a rookie is more likely to be bad overall than good, and a QB who is good as a rookie (though you're leaving out a lot of mediocre to bad guys who were pretty good as rookies like Jones, Young, Mariota, Mayfield, Kessler, etc.) is more likely to be decent, but if you're projecting who can be Really Good.. it's more mixed bag because the number of guys who can get there is small, and the combination of skills/talents you usually need is varied, so a guy with certain skills (say Allen with his big arm) can be bad as rookies and then become really good because the things that they struggled with improve and the things they had suddenly are more valuable.
Tannehill is one I think is interesting, he started out on teams with bad talent and bad coaches, he was pretty bad as a rookie, he became quite good with better support/coaching. Thing is not that many rookie QBs who are in bad situations get a chance to be in good ones soon enough.
I'm in agreement with Cellar door. There's so few QBs that you would put into the great category that it's a really small sample size.
One who was absolutely awful his rookie season, but ended up a Hall of Famer - John Elway, who started 10 games. Of the 28 QBs that qualified, he was dead last in completion percentage 47.5%, 4th from bottom in TD% (2.7), 6th from bottom in Interception% (5.4), 5th from bottom in AY/A (though all 5 were between 4.4-4.5). Troy Aikman was close to as bad (highest Int % of qualifiers, 6th from bottom in TD%, 5th from bottom in completion%).
Not sure if these guys are too far to be representative of the modern era.
Contextual factors can be huge and its true that becoming "really good" (whatever that means) is hard and unlikely in general.
But I think its possible to go overboard about context as well, to the point that we're just ignoring data on performance. If in the last two decades there have been like 20-25 QBs (I'm guesstimating, not counting) who were drafted in the top half of the first round, started 10+ games as rookies, and been as bad as Trevor Lawrence and only 1-2 of them have gone on to be really good, at some point you need to start updating your priors on the likelihood of Trevor Lawrence being a star.
Again, that's not to write him off at all. But if we're talking about probabilistic projections of future career trajectory, I think it would be absolutely insane if anybody's projected range of outcomes right now looked the same or highly similar to what their projected range of outcomes looked like last June.
Someone should probably let the University of Wyoming know they've been playing in the wrong division.
Ben Baldwin (@benbbaldwin) on twitter has been compiling a series of rookie quarterback efficiency charts this season including players from the last 10 seasons.
View: https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1470409419058028551
You can see that Wilson is pretty close to the bottom, and Lawrence and Fields are in the tier just above. Mac is on the upper end of chart.
Since it starts from 2011 it's missing a few big names like Brady, Stafford, and Big Ben. I also would have liked explicit labels for a lot more players like Luck, Bortles, Tannehill, Josh Allen, and Cam to name a few.
View: https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1470409419058028551
You can see that Wilson is pretty close to the bottom, and Lawrence and Fields are in the tier just above. Mac is on the upper end of chart.
Since it starts from 2011 it's missing a few big names like Brady, Stafford, and Big Ben. I also would have liked explicit labels for a lot more players like Luck, Bortles, Tannehill, Josh Allen, and Cam to name a few.
It's gone under the radar, but it's interesting to see that Mills is solidly the 2nd best rookie QB this year. He's in a similar situation to Lawrence/Fields/Wilson in that his organization is lousy and the team isn't ready to compete, but unlike those three he's shown actual flashes of competent play. It's getting crazier every week that Lawrence/Fields/Wilson/Lance have 0 games with a 100+ passer rating in a combined 32 starts (Mills has 2 in 7 starts, Mac has 6 in 13 starts).
I get that Jax is terrible. Awful. But we've seen awful, terrible teams before. It's amazing that this here is probably the battle for Lawrence's top game this year:
Week 1 at Hou (L, 37-21): 28-51 (54.9%), 332 yds, 3 td, 3 int
Week 4 at Cin (L, 24-21): 17-24 (70.8%), 204 yds, 0 td, 0 int
Let's not count Mac's last game for obvious reasons. So in his 12 real games, he's had 10 of them with a passer rating of 85 or better, 8 of them with a passer rating of 95 or better, and 4 of them with a passer rating of 110 or better.
By contrast, Lawrence has had 13 games, and in those, he's had 3 games with a passer rating below 60, 7 of them with a passer rating below 70, 9 of them with a passer rating below 80, and in just 3 of them was he even in the 90s. Zero games with a passer rating above 97.
So it's not like Lawrence's season has been skewed awfully by one or two bad games. He's generally been quite awful all season long. Mac, in contrast, hasn't been buoyed by one or two outstanding performances, though of course he's had one. Mac has just been consistently good all season long.
Week 1 at Hou (L, 37-21): 28-51 (54.9%), 332 yds, 3 td, 3 int
Week 4 at Cin (L, 24-21): 17-24 (70.8%), 204 yds, 0 td, 0 int
Let's not count Mac's last game for obvious reasons. So in his 12 real games, he's had 10 of them with a passer rating of 85 or better, 8 of them with a passer rating of 95 or better, and 4 of them with a passer rating of 110 or better.
By contrast, Lawrence has had 13 games, and in those, he's had 3 games with a passer rating below 60, 7 of them with a passer rating below 70, 9 of them with a passer rating below 80, and in just 3 of them was he even in the 90s. Zero games with a passer rating above 97.
So it's not like Lawrence's season has been skewed awfully by one or two bad games. He's generally been quite awful all season long. Mac, in contrast, hasn't been buoyed by one or two outstanding performances, though of course he's had one. Mac has just been consistently good all season long.
Sure. And note that some of the guys who sat didn't light things up when they first played, either. Drew Brees sat on a 5-11 team, was not good in Y2, terrible in Y3 (worse than Lawrence is now), and finally broke out in Y4. Carson Palmer (the #1 overall pick!) sat for a year and then put up a sub-5 ANY/A in year two before having a decent year 3.
I don't have the last two decades, but in the last one decade, prior to this year, I count only 21 QBs drafted in the top 16 who had 200 pass attempts as rookies; of those, 6 put up sub-5 ANY/As; 2 (Goff and Allen) went on to at least some degree of success, while they other 4 (Rosen, Manuel, Bortles, Haskins) did not. 1/3 is probably not dissimilar from the overall hit rate for these guys. (We also have 6 QBs with 6+ ANY/As; Herbert, Watson, and Baker I guess are hits while Mariota, Winston, and RGIII are misses).
I don't think you're wrong but I'm not sure you're right either. The sample size is surprisingly small and the data to date is pretty murky.
Pure hypothetical:
Jacksonville offers Lawrence to BB for Mac straight up. Do we think BB accepts or rejects? A talented kid who he knows he can win with vs. a higher upside talent who may have more upside but also more volatility.
You're right that its not a big sample of awful top half of the first round rookie QBs (my guesstimate of 20-25 was clearly high) from the last 20 years but it does grow more substantially when you go back another 10 years, especially if we're a little loose with the passing attempts criterion. You would add David Carr, Joey Harrington, Eli (197 attempts), Alex Smith (165 attempts), Vince Young, Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder. There were some bad QBs drafted high in those years!
So that would be 16 guys from the top half of the first round who have played a substantial amount and stunk up the joint as rookies in the last 20 years and basically the only real high level successes are Josh Allen (who, again, was a somewhat unusual case in terms of prior level of competition) and Matthew Stafford, with Eli and Alex Smith also having good careers in more the league average mold. I can't get there with characterizing Goff as a success story, fully acknowledging that he put some good statistical years with McVay.
Week 5 vs. TEN (L 37-19) 23/33 (69.7%) 273 yds 1 td 1 InT (+1 Rushing TD)
Week 6 vs MIA (W 23-20) 25/41 (61%) 319 yards 1 td ) Int
are probably in the mix.
That week 4-6 stretch is quite good. 65/98 (66%) 796 yards 2 TD 1 INT (plus 2 rushing TDs). Then it fell apart again.
Lance had a 117 rating in the game he got 1 half.
He’s had a grand total of one start against a great D. I’m with you, I just saying Lance should be getting an incomplete and be excluded from the conversation.
I didn't include him originally, but then I realized he had started a game (1) and included that. He's definitely getting an "incomplete" grade for 2021, which is far better than Lawrence/Wilson/Fields will get.
These stats continue to amaze me
View: https://twitter.com/michaeldavsmith/status/1471085345030684674?s=21
View: https://twitter.com/michaeldavsmith/status/1471085345030684674?s=21
For some context, in 2020 it was 15-26-1 overall for rookie starters. Tua was 6-3, the rest 9-23-1. If I get some time, I'll keep going back.
In 2012, it was 46-43 for rookie starters. Luck and Wilson were 11-5, RGIII was 9-6 (Cousins 1-0), Tannehill 7-9, Brandon Weeden 5-10, Foles 1-5, Ryan Lindley 1-3.
In 2012, it was 46-43 for rookie starters. Luck and Wilson were 11-5, RGIII was 9-6 (Cousins 1-0), Tannehill 7-9, Brandon Weeden 5-10, Foles 1-5, Ryan Lindley 1-3.
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Updated totals:
Jones: 296/429, 69.0%, 3168 yards, 18/10 TD/INT, 94.6 rating--THIS WEEK: 26/45, 299 yards, 2/2 TD/INT
Lawrence: 293/504, 58.1%, 2945 yards, 9/14 TD/INT, 69.3 rating (also rushed for 264 yards, 2 TDs)--THIS WEEK: 22/38, 210 yards, 0/0 TD/INT.
Wilson: 173/308, 56.2%, 1911 yards, 6/11 TD/INT, 66.4 rating--THIS WEEK: 13/23, 170 yards, 0/0 TD/INT.
Fields: 159/270, 58.9%, 1870 yards, 7/10 TD/INT, 73.2 rating (also rushed for 420 yards, 2 TDs)--THIS WEEK: 26/39, 285 yards, 1/0 TD/INT, 35 yards rushing.
Lance: 25/48, 52.1%, 354 yards, 3/1 TD/INT, 88.4 rating (also rushed for 137 yards, 1 TD)
Mills: 198/302, 65.6%, 1946 yards, 10/9 TD/INT, 82.2 rating--THIS WEEK: 19/30, 209 yards, 2/1 TD/INT
Jones: 296/429, 69.0%, 3168 yards, 18/10 TD/INT, 94.6 rating--THIS WEEK: 26/45, 299 yards, 2/2 TD/INT
Lawrence: 293/504, 58.1%, 2945 yards, 9/14 TD/INT, 69.3 rating (also rushed for 264 yards, 2 TDs)--THIS WEEK: 22/38, 210 yards, 0/0 TD/INT.
Wilson: 173/308, 56.2%, 1911 yards, 6/11 TD/INT, 66.4 rating--THIS WEEK: 13/23, 170 yards, 0/0 TD/INT.
Fields: 159/270, 58.9%, 1870 yards, 7/10 TD/INT, 73.2 rating (also rushed for 420 yards, 2 TDs)--THIS WEEK: 26/39, 285 yards, 1/0 TD/INT, 35 yards rushing.
Lance: 25/48, 52.1%, 354 yards, 3/1 TD/INT, 88.4 rating (also rushed for 137 yards, 1 TD)
Mills: 198/302, 65.6%, 1946 yards, 10/9 TD/INT, 82.2 rating--THIS WEEK: 19/30, 209 yards, 2/1 TD/INT
If Mills had stayed at Stanford is he a top 5 pick this year given the lack of top tier prospects? He's actually been pretty decent given that team and what he has to work with.
Obviously dependent upon how he would have played as a senior, but given his size and some of his measurables, it isn't hard to see teams talking themselves into making him the top QB chosen in the draft.
What is going to be even more interesting is where he shakes out among the six rookie QBs this year - himself plus the top 5. Based on how he has played this year with that team, it's hard to see him being worse than the 3rd or 4th best. I'm reserving judgment on Lawrence and Lance for obvious reasons, but I give Fields and Wilson very little chance based on what I have seen of them and the analysis I've read / watched.
Just wanted to add these for comparison's sake:
112/205, 54.6%, 1089 yards, 5/7 TD/INT, 63.6 rating
Goff 2016
280-475, 58.9%, 2908 yards, 11/17 TD/INT, 69.5 rating
Bortles 2014
Neither of these comparisons would give me the warm and fuzzies if I was a Jags, Jets, or Bears fan.
Updated totals:
Jones: 310/461, 67.2%, 3313 yards, 18/12 TD/INT, 90.2 rating--THIS WEEK: 14/32, 145 yards, 0/2 TD/INT
Lawrence: 319/543, 58.7%, 3225 yards, 9/14 TD/INT, 70.6 rating (also rushed for 301 yards, 2 TDs)--THIS WEEK: 26/39, 280 yards, 0/0 TD/INT.
Wilson: 187/330, 56.7%, 2013 yards, 7/11 TD/INT, 67.9 rating--THIS WEEK: 14/22, 102 yards, 1/0 TD/INT, rushed for 91 yards and 1 TD
Fields: 159/270, 58.9%, 1870 yards, 7/10 TD/INT, 73.2 rating (also rushed for 420 yards, 2 TDs)--THIS WEEK: DNP
Lance: 25/48, 52.1%, 354 yards, 3/1 TD/INT, 88.4 rating (also rushed for 137 yards, 1 TD)--THIS WEEK: DNP
Mills: 219/329, 66.6%, 2200 yards, 12/9 TD/INT, 86.2 rating--THIS WEEK: 21/27, 254 yards, 2/0 TD/INT
--Wilson has rushed for 136 yards in the last 3 weeks after rushing for 25 the entire season prior to.
--With Jones in a slump the last few games, Mills has significantly closed the gap on passer rating and completion percentage, and Lawrence has done the same in passing yards.
Jones: 310/461, 67.2%, 3313 yards, 18/12 TD/INT, 90.2 rating--THIS WEEK: 14/32, 145 yards, 0/2 TD/INT
Lawrence: 319/543, 58.7%, 3225 yards, 9/14 TD/INT, 70.6 rating (also rushed for 301 yards, 2 TDs)--THIS WEEK: 26/39, 280 yards, 0/0 TD/INT.
Wilson: 187/330, 56.7%, 2013 yards, 7/11 TD/INT, 67.9 rating--THIS WEEK: 14/22, 102 yards, 1/0 TD/INT, rushed for 91 yards and 1 TD
Fields: 159/270, 58.9%, 1870 yards, 7/10 TD/INT, 73.2 rating (also rushed for 420 yards, 2 TDs)--THIS WEEK: DNP
Lance: 25/48, 52.1%, 354 yards, 3/1 TD/INT, 88.4 rating (also rushed for 137 yards, 1 TD)--THIS WEEK: DNP
Mills: 219/329, 66.6%, 2200 yards, 12/9 TD/INT, 86.2 rating--THIS WEEK: 21/27, 254 yards, 2/0 TD/INT
--Wilson has rushed for 136 yards in the last 3 weeks after rushing for 25 the entire season prior to.
--With Jones in a slump the last few games, Mills has significantly closed the gap on passer rating and completion percentage, and Lawrence has done the same in passing yards.
I was going to look up the second half numbers... man does the NFL not provide good stats, NBA has such in-depth stat filters, NFL... nothing.
SINCE WEEK 9-
Mac Jones 7 GAMES: 118/179, 66%, 1317 Yards, 9/6 TD/INT 58 rushing yards 5.89 ANY/A
Trey Lance- 1 game, no passing
Justin Fields 4 games- 65/112, 58%, 879 yards 4/3 TD/INT, 177 rushing yards 6.28 ANY/A
Zach Wilson 5 games: 83/149, 56%, 845 Yards 3/2 TD/INT, 139 rushing yards, 4.21 ANY/A
Trevor Lawrence 8 games: 158/273, 58%, 1522 Yards, 1/5 TD/INT, 169 rushing yards 4.04 ANY/A
Davis Mills 4 games: 79/120, 66%, 843 yards, 5/1 TD/INT, 20 rushing yards, 6.84 ANY/A
An average game for each player across the 2nd half of the year:
Mac- 17/26 188 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 8 rushing yards
Fields- 16/28. 220 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT 35 rushing yards
Wilson- 17/30, 169 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 28 rushing yards
Trevor- 20/34, 190 yards, 0TD, 1 INT, 21 rushing yards
Mills- 20/30, 211 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 5 rushing yards.
So second half, Mills has been the leader, Fields/Mac the next tier, then Lawrence and Wilson have been abysmal.
SINCE WEEK 9-
Mac Jones 7 GAMES: 118/179, 66%, 1317 Yards, 9/6 TD/INT 58 rushing yards 5.89 ANY/A
Trey Lance- 1 game, no passing
Justin Fields 4 games- 65/112, 58%, 879 yards 4/3 TD/INT, 177 rushing yards 6.28 ANY/A
Zach Wilson 5 games: 83/149, 56%, 845 Yards 3/2 TD/INT, 139 rushing yards, 4.21 ANY/A
Trevor Lawrence 8 games: 158/273, 58%, 1522 Yards, 1/5 TD/INT, 169 rushing yards 4.04 ANY/A
Davis Mills 4 games: 79/120, 66%, 843 yards, 5/1 TD/INT, 20 rushing yards, 6.84 ANY/A
An average game for each player across the 2nd half of the year:
Mac- 17/26 188 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 8 rushing yards
Fields- 16/28. 220 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT 35 rushing yards
Wilson- 17/30, 169 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 28 rushing yards
Trevor- 20/34, 190 yards, 0TD, 1 INT, 21 rushing yards
Mills- 20/30, 211 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 5 rushing yards.
So second half, Mills has been the leader, Fields/Mac the next tier, then Lawrence and Wilson have been abysmal.
It happened, but the wind game in Buffalo is a huge drag on his game averages, esp if looking at just the second half
Zach also has 4 rushing TDs in his past 5 games
edit: I also don’t know how that interception average is being calculated. Zach had 9 picks in his first 5 games and 2 in his last 5 (last 6 if you count game he was injured, I wouldn’t as he got hurt pretty early).
edit: I also don’t know how that interception average is being calculated. Zach had 9 picks in his first 5 games and 2 in his last 5 (last 6 if you count game he was injured, I wouldn’t as he got hurt pretty early).
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Mac Jones w/out the first Bills game: 6 GAMES: 116/176, 66%, 1298 Yards, 9/6 TD/INT 61 rushing yards 5.89 ANY/A (I didn't recalculate this).
19 of 29, 216 yards 1.5 TD/1 INT
Mills has a half game in there, mostly I just averaged it for fun, the raw numbers are more important.
Mills has been good, Fields has come up some, Mac has dropped off, Wilson and Lawrence continue to suck
Mills has been good, Fields has come up some, Mac has dropped off, Wilson and Lawrence continue to suck
Lance with a pretty solid start: 16-23 for 249 yards, 2 TDs and one INT. Also 8 rushes for 31 yards. By my count, he's the first 1st round rookie QB other than Mac Jones to have a start with a QB rating over 100. He's now 1-2 in that regard, Mac is 7-16 and Lawrence/Wilson/Fields are a combined 0-38. Davis Mills is 3-10.
Sure, but he played a team that struggled to remember their code "QXXCNNF" to check into the team's JetBlue flight four minutes into the game. Mills was a few minutes late and got stuck with a middle seat, lol boo hoo.
Sure, although even taking his numbers with a grain of salt you can say with a straight face that he was better today than Lawrence/Wilson/Fields have been all year. The story of the rookie QBs this year really isn't Mac's play (really, he's performed at about the 90% best case scenario for his rookie year, not a gigantic surprise), nor is that Mills has been relatively ok despite being picked after everyone, or even that Lance is finally getting a shot after sitting most of the year. It's the complete absence of solid play from Lawrence/Wilson, and to a lesser extent, Fields. There's plenty of people who will give these guys a pass (they are rookies, they are in lousy situations, it's been an unusual year with covid), but they have been just uniformly awful.
Lawrence in particular has a QB rating in the high 60s - looking at all 9 QBs drafted 1st overall over the last dozen years (Lawrence, Burrow, Murray, Mayfield, Goff, Winston, Luck, Newton, Bradford), only Goff had a worse rookie year than Lawrence (and it's close). Yeah the Jacksonville situation is godawful, but almost all of these guys came into bad situations. Even if we allow that Jacksonville is worse than most, is it not balanced out by the fact that Lawrence was either the first or second most highly regarded prospect of the last dozen years (maybe second only to Luck)? I get giving him a pass if this situation is uniquely terrible, but flip it around and look for the good - has Lawrence shown anything at all this year to make people optimistic about his future? He's had one game with 70% completions (barely, 70.83% in week 4). He hasn't had double digit TD passes in a game since week 1. He hasn't had a game all year with more TD passes than interceptions. Coming into today he had one total TD (rushing or passing) since October. Other than staying healthy (I think), what's gone well?
Given the opponents (and to a lesser extent their own rosters), I thought Fields' game against the Vikings was a lot more impressive than Lance today, probably the PIT game as well.
Mike Zimmer appears to have an issue with Kellen Mond.
View: https://twitter.com/IanKenyonNFL/status/1477874858352590851?t=fEB3Z5ETg7267E6TlA4WuQ&s=19
View: https://twitter.com/IanKenyonNFL/status/1477874858352590851?t=fEB3Z5ETg7267E6TlA4WuQ&s=19
Lawrence has looked Josh Rosen levels of bad. Yes the Jags are terrible, but Gardner Minshew threw 16 TDs in 9 games on a 1 win Jacksonville team and Lawrence has thrown 9 in 15 games this year.
That should be a gigantic yikes. He will obviously get a pass, and people will blame Urban, but people have been calling for Tua’s job for the last 12 months and he went 6-3 with 11 TDs in 9 starts last year.
The Lawrence situation is so interesting to me. On my phone and can’t easily do a deep dive til I get to my computer today, but just look at Joe Burrow.
2019 Bengals are 2-14, and their second win comes in the last game of the season. Just a godawful team that gets the #1 overall pick. So they draft Joe Burrow.
In 2020 the Bengals go 4-11-1, so....still terrible. But Burrow puts up this stat line in 10 games:
65% completion, 2,688 yds, 13 td, 5 int, 89.8 rating
Maybe he’s a lot better than Lawrence. Maybe the 2020 Bengals, outside of the QB position, were markedly better than the 2021 Jaguars.
But both Burrow and Lawrence entered similarly crappy situations with bad franchises, and one played pretty well (for a rookie) while the other has been absolutely awful.
You (generic “you”, not anyone in particular here) just can’t blame ALL of Lawrence’s struggles on the fact that the Jags suck. He’s been objectively terrible.
And yet I see glimpses. He made a couple of throws yesterday that were incredible. So you see the ability he has.
2019 Bengals are 2-14, and their second win comes in the last game of the season. Just a godawful team that gets the #1 overall pick. So they draft Joe Burrow.
In 2020 the Bengals go 4-11-1, so....still terrible. But Burrow puts up this stat line in 10 games:
65% completion, 2,688 yds, 13 td, 5 int, 89.8 rating
Maybe he’s a lot better than Lawrence. Maybe the 2020 Bengals, outside of the QB position, were markedly better than the 2021 Jaguars.
But both Burrow and Lawrence entered similarly crappy situations with bad franchises, and one played pretty well (for a rookie) while the other has been absolutely awful.
You (generic “you”, not anyone in particular here) just can’t blame ALL of Lawrence’s struggles on the fact that the Jags suck. He’s been objectively terrible.
And yet I see glimpses. He made a couple of throws yesterday that were incredible. So you see the ability he has.
Watching the game yesterday. I saw Jags receivers bouncing balls off their helmets, hands, etc. I think I remember they have had more drops than any other team by a wide margin. Their coach most of the season was a true joke, their talent level is awful across the board. I’m willing to give Lawrence a little slack overall, reset and try again next year
Yeah, I haven't put eyes on Lawrence enough to have any strong opinion on his performance specifically, but comparing this Jaguars team to last year's Bengals team does a disservice to the level of absolute cluster that is the 2021 Urban Meyer Jaguars. A 31 year old Marvin Jones is the clear #1 WR, with Leviska Shenault and Laquon Treadwell behind him, James Robinson was the only thing resembling a weapon, and was being benched by Urban before landing on IR. And that really just scratches the surface...
Not trying to blame ALL his issues on the situation, but this team is in the running for most dysfunctional, ever. It's really hard to evaluate an individual under these circumstances.
Not trying to blame ALL his issues on the situation, but this team is in the running for most dysfunctional, ever. It's really hard to evaluate an individual under these circumstances.