Tracking the rookie QBs

johnmd20

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We'll see. Lance has not looked bad at all in his limited time. Even his start against a fully healthy Arizona was good for a 1st career start. He moved the ball consistently and just some 50/50 plays went the wrong way in the red zone a couple times.

You can certainly question the niners' decisions on keeping jimmy g and not getting Lance reps. But, I don't think we have any real data on whether they should have gone with Mac above him yet.

I also don't believe that Shanahan/Lynch had their minds changed by public ridicule. They haven't shown that in any other area over the last 5 years. I think they thought Lance's skillset has a higher ceiling than Jones. And they still might be right.

If they lose tonight, I bet Lance is the starter for the rest of the season and we'll see.
Kyle Shanahan is a fucking mess.

The way he develops talent is to put them in a gulag and not play them for a variety of stupid reasons. He doesn't coach, he punishes. Maybe he's a genius at scheme, but he sucks at taking care of his players. The way he's handled Lance, Sermon, and Aiyuk this year has been abysmal. And he's got the record to show it.
 

scott bankheadcase

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The public would still have been right to ridicule them. They would've traded 3 first rounders and a third for a guy who was available at 15.

That trade is still so insanely ridiculous. Trey Lance would have to be Andrew Luck out of the gate to be worth that much draft capital vs. Fields and Jones.
Lance certainly has to be really really good to justify the draft capital. But why out of the gate? If he’s a top 5 qb in year 3 or even 4 it’s worth it.

also, only Jones made it to the niners’ original draft position. Fields was gone.
 

scott bankheadcase

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Kyle Shanahan is a fucking mess.

The way he develops talent is to put them in a gulag and not play them for a variety of stupid reasons. He doesn't coach, he punishes. Maybe he's a genius at scheme, but he sucks at taking care of his players. The way he's handled Lance, Sermon, and Aiyuk this year has been abysmal. And he's got the record to show it.
I mainly agree with you on the substance here. I give a slight pass on sermon as Mitchel looks really good. But Lance should be playing now. Aiyuk should have been the no. 2 receiver from day 1.

It actually goes way further. Lenoir looked good as a rookie DB, then he decided to play Norman and Kirkpatrick instead. They’re terrible.

He definitely has a development of talent problem.
 

ManicCompression

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Lance certainly has to be really really good to justify the draft capital. But why out of the gate? If he’s a top 5 qb in year 3 or even 4 it’s worth it.

also, only Jones made it to the niners’ original draft position. Fields was gone.
I would say "out of the gate" because they're now really short on draft capital, so they need to be active in FA to attract talent, which also means that he needs to be productive on his rookie contract. That's also keeping in mind that they have some prime talent right now that will be getting expensive shortly (Deebo, Bosa, etc.) and can't be as patient with him as the Jags can be with Lawrence or even the Jets with Fields. Two years ago, this team was a Super Bowl contender and not a lot has changed (except schedule and health) - that's a lot of talent going to waste as Lance, possibly the most inexperienced first round qb of all-time, figures it out.

And fair point on the Fields part, but then why not trade up with one of the teams who wasn't selecting a QB at a lower cost? SF had no assurances Lance (or whoever they wanted) would even be at 3.
 

DanoooME

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Rick Mirer was an interesting case study. There were rumors that the 49'ers offered Parcells multiple draft picks to move up to the #1 slot so they could pick Mirer. Seattle would have naturally picked Bledsoe, the local favorite.

Mirer had a better rookie season than Bledsoe, and Tom Flores wasn't exactly a bad coach (2 Super Bowl victories with the Raiders). But Mirer was sacked a league leading 47 times. And then after an OK if unspectacular sophomore season, he turned into a pick machine. Of course, his line did him no favors his 3rd season (42 sacks). He ended up starting for Parcells with the 1999 Jets after Vinny Testaverde popped his Achilles, but was terrible as a team that was in the AFCCG the prior season fell to 8-8, leading indirectly to the departure of their defensive coordinator to the Patriots.
Context is definitely huge for QB development but I think this quote really tells you more about Bill Parcells' over-inflated ego than anything.

Seattle was a bad team but it wasn't a terrible situation by any means. Tom Flores had been a very successful coach. Their O line struggled but they had some weapons, including Chris Warren, who was one of the best RBs in the league at a time when the game tilted toward the run.

The much more plausible take is that Rick Mirer was a bad quarterback. After Seattle, four other organizations gave him a look during his career and each one got rid of him after a single year.

Most notably of all, Mirer actually played for Parcells in 1999 with the Jets and he stunk up the joint, quickly losing his job to Ray Lucas.
Some perspective here. The 1992 Seattle Seahawks had one of the worst offenses in history (despite having Chris Warren). How bad? The average team scored 300 points that year in 16 games. Seattle scored 140. I'll let that sink in a moment.

140 points in a 16 game season = 8.75 points per game. The next least points in the league that year was the Patriots at 205 points, 4 PPG better than the Seahawks.

The Seahawks were shut out twice, held under double digits another 6 times and the most they scored in a game was 17 (twice - both losses).

They had a total of 14 TDs all season. 9 passing, 4 rushing (3 by Warren, 1 by John L Williams), and 1 fumble recovery TD.

The QBs (Stan Gelbaugh - 8 starts, Kelly Stouffer - 7 starts, Dan McGwire - 1 start) were a collective 230-476 (48.3%), 2323 yards (4.9 Y/A), 9 TDs and 23 INTs. They were sacked 67 times.

Their FB (John L Williams) led the team in receptions by far with 74 for 556 yards and 2 TDs. The top WR was the immortal Tommy Kane with 27 catches for 369 yards and 3 TDs (on 70! targets).

I believe FO had them as the worst or 2nd worst all time offense. Indy in 1991 is the only team close in a 16 game season (they had 143, next worst is 161). Even more amazing is that it's the 12th fewest points of the Super Bowl era and of the 11 teams below them, 7 of them were in the strike season of 1982 (which also means 23 teams beat that total in 9 games) and the other 4 were in 14 game seasons, including the expansion Buccaneers in 1976 and 1977.

I wanted Bledsoe, but even Mirer was an improvement. The offense doubled to 280 points in 1993. Flores inherited a terrible team, made it a little better and got let go after 3 seasons. Mirer was put in a terrible offense and never really developed. They should have left him on the bench and played McGwire or Gelbaugh (Stouffer was let go) in 1993, and he might have had a chance because they got Brian Blades back in '93 (missed 10 games with injuries in '92), which made a difference with the WR corps.
 

DJnVa

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Updated totals:

Jones: 245/349, 70.2%, 2540 yards, 14/8 TD/INT, 94.7 rating--MOST RECENT GAME: 22/26, 207 yards, 1/1, TD/INT.

Lawrence: 208/356, 58.4%, 2141 yards, 8/9 TD/INT, 72.8 rating (also rushed for 192 yards, 2 TDs)--MOST RECENT GAME: 16/25, 158 yards, 0/0 TD/INT.

Wilson: 104/181, 57.3%, 1168 yards, 4/9 TD/INT, 63.5 rating

Fields: 115/198, 58.1%, 1361 yards, 4/8 TD/INT, 69.0 rating (also rushed for 311 yards, 2 TDs)--MOST RECENT GAME: 4/11, 79 yards, 0/0 TD/INT, left with injury.

Lance: 25/48, 52.1%, 354 yards, 3/1 TD/INT, 88.4 rating (also rushed for 137 yards, 1 TD)

Mills: 140/209, 67.0%, 1357 yards, 7/8 TD/INT, 80.2 rating
 
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Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Fumbles also might be worth adding to the stat tracker. Fields in particular really needs to work on taking care of the ball (although he has gotten hit a ton between sacks and runs so that is part of it).

Jones - 4
Lawrence - 5
Wilson - 2
Fields - 9
Lance - 0
Mills - 4
 

Cotillion

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Updated totals:

Jones: 245/349, 69.0%, 2540 yards, 14/8 TD/INT, 94.7 rating--MOST RECENT GAME: 22/26, 207 yards, 1/1, TD/INT.

Lawrence: 208/356, 58.4%, 2141 yards, 8/9 TD/INT, 72.8 rating (also rushed for 192 yards, 2 TDs)--MOST RECENT GAME: 16/25, 158 yards, 0/0 TD/INT.

Wilson: 104/181, 57.3%, 1168 yards, 4/9 TD/INT, 63.5 rating

Fields: 115/198, 58.1%, 1361 yards, 4/8 TD/INT, 69.0 rating (also rushed for 311 yards, 2 TDs)--MOST RECENT GAME: 4/11, 79 yards, 0/0 TD/INT, left with injury.

Lance: 25/48, 52.1%, 354 yards, 3/1 TD/INT, 88.4 rating (also rushed for 137 yards, 1 TD)

Mills: 140/209, 67.0%, 1357 yards, 7/8 TD/INT, 80.2 rating
Yah shortchanged Mac on his completion percentage.

70.2
 

snowmanny

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Didn’t they have a graphic on TNF that Jones was 6-4 and the other rookies were 5-24 combined? So 7-4 and 5-26?
 

m0ckduck

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Some perspective here. The 1992 Seattle Seahawks had one of the worst offenses in history (despite having Chris Warren). How bad? The average team scored 300 points that year in 16 games. Seattle scored 140. I'll let that sink in a moment.

140 points in a 16 game season = 8.75 points per game. The next least points in the league that year was the Patriots at 205 points, 4 PPG better than the Seahawks.

The Seahawks were shut out twice, held under double digits another 6 times and the most they scored in a game was 17 (twice - both losses).

They had a total of 14 TDs all season. 9 passing, 4 rushing (3 by Warren, 1 by John L Williams), and 1 fumble recovery TD.

The QBs (Stan Gelbaugh - 8 starts, Kelly Stouffer - 7 starts, Dan McGwire - 1 start) were a collective 230-476 (48.3%), 2323 yards (4.9 Y/A), 9 TDs and 23 INTs. They were sacked 67 times.

Their FB (John L Williams) led the team in receptions by far with 74 for 556 yards and 2 TDs. The top WR was the immortal Tommy Kane with 27 catches for 369 yards and 3 TDs (on 70! targets).

I believe FO had them as the worst or 2nd worst all time offense. Indy in 1991 is the only team close in a 16 game season (they had 143, next worst is 161). Even more amazing is that it's the 12th fewest points of the Super Bowl era and of the 11 teams below them, 7 of them were in the strike season of 1982 (which also means 23 teams beat that total in 9 games) and the other 4 were in 14 game seasons, including the expansion Buccaneers in 1976 and 1977.

I wanted Bledsoe, but even Mirer was an improvement. The offense doubled to 280 points in 1993. Flores inherited a terrible team, made it a little better and got let go after 3 seasons. Mirer was put in a terrible offense and never really developed. They should have left him on the bench and played McGwire or Gelbaugh (Stouffer was let go) in 1993, and he might have had a chance because they got Brian Blades back in '93 (missed 10 games with injuries in '92), which made a difference with the WR corps.
Just noticed that these 92 Seahawks had the second-worst offensive DVOA ever measured: -41.3, trailing only the 02 Texans
 

BaseballJones

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I think it's fair to ask what Mac Jones would be doing if he had gotten drafted by a lousy team instead of by the Patriots, and also how one of the other QBs would be doing if they had been picked by NE instead of Mac.

But that's all just theoretical guesswork. In the real world, Lawrence was drafted by Jacksonville and Mac Jones was drafted by New England. At the end of the day all we can go on is by what they've actually done, not by what they might have done in a different situation.

So, that being said, where does Mac Jones' rookie season stand in the last 20 years? Top 10? Top 5? Don't just think about stats, think about wins too, because wins matter, even acknowledging that wins are hugely a function of other players too. We just know that the QB has an oversized impact on winning and losing in the NFL.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Off the top of my head Mac is definitely behind Dak, RGIII, Russ, Herbert, and Roethlisberger for sure. Probably behind Baker. I’m sure there are a couple others I’m missing. So maybe back half of top 10 or fringe top 10?
 

BaseballJones

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2012 Wilson: 64.1%, 3,118 yds, 7.9 y/a, 26 td, 10 int, 100.0 rating, 489 rush yds, 4 rush td, 11-5 record
2020 Herbert: 66.6%, 4,336 yds, 7.3 y/a, 31 td, 10 int, 98.3 rating, 234 rush yds, 5 rush td, 6-9 record
2016 Prescott: 67.8%, 3,667 yds, 8.0 y/a, 23 td, 4 int, 104.9 rating, 282 rush yds, 6 rush td, 13-3 record
2012 Griffin: 65.6%, 3,200 yds, 8.1 y/a, 20 td, 5 int, 102.4 rating, 815 rush yds, 7 rush td, 9-6 record
2004 Roethlisberger: 66.4%, 2,621 yds, 8.9 y/a, 17 td, 11 int, 98.1 rating, 144 rush yds, 1 rush td, 13-0 record
2018 Mayfield: 63.8%, 3,725 yds, 7.7 y/a, 27 td, 14 int, 93.7 rating, 131 rush yds, 0 rush td, 6-7 record
2021 Jones: 70.2%, 2,540 yds, 7.3 y/a, 14 td, 8 int, 94.7 rating, 60 rush yds, 0 rush td, 7-4 record


So yeah, Mac's season isn't up to par with some of those guys' for sure. He still has some season left though, and maybe he goes off. Or maybe he comes back to earth. Who knows. Either way, given the number of rookie QB seasons in the last 20 years that NFL players have had, this is one of the most impressive performances for sure.
 

Super Nomario

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To your list @BaseballJones I would add:
Cam Newton 2011: 6.24 ANY/A (basically identical to Mac's) plus 704 yards on the ground and a whopping 14 rush TDs; Panthers improved 4 wins
Jameis Winston 2015: 6.44 ANY/A; Bucs improved 4 wins
Gardner Minshew(!) 2019: 6.44 ANY/A; 6-6 in 12 starts (Jags went 0-4 otherwise)
Lamar Jackson 2018: passing worse than Mac at 5.99 ANY/A but he had 695 yards rushing and Ravens went 6-1 after starting 4-5
Kyler Murray 2019: passing worse at 5.55 ANY/A but had 544 yards rushing (at 5.8 YPC); Cards only improved by 2.5 wins but the offense jumped from 32nd to 16th in scoring
Deshaun Watson 2017: only 6 starts but 7.19 ANY/A; Houston went 3-3 in his starts and 1-9 otherwise.
Andrew Luck 2012: surface stats were not good (5.66 ANY/A) but he led 7(!) game-winning drives and the Colts improved from 2-14 to 11-5

Mac is having a very good rookie season. It's not really an exceptional rookie season statistically; he looks better because a) the other rookies are struggling and b) the defense is playing lights-out so his record is great.
 

scott bankheadcase

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This goes right into the Jets Hall of Shame next to butt fumble:
View: https://twitter.com/WillBrinson/status/1465026080486662144?s=20
People need to stop disrespecting the absolute perfection of the butt fumble by comparing every bad Jets play to it. Watch the butt fumble again, it was just an exquisite display of ridiculous ineptitude.

This was a rookie qb with a terrible OL throwing a bad-timed flip pass. If Johnson doesn’t turn to block it’s probably a 8-yard completion. Carson Wentz throws worse INTs weekly.

Bad play by Wilson but nothing like the butt fumble.
 

luckiestman

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People need to stop disrespecting the absolute perfection of the butt fumble by comparing every bad Jets play to it. Watch the butt fumble again, it was just an exquisite display of ridiculous ineptitude.

This was a rookie qb with a terrible OL throwing a bad-timed flip pass. If Johnson doesn’t turn to block it’s probably a 8-yard completion. Carson Wentz throws worse INTs weekly.

Bad play by Wilson but nothing like the butt fumble.
I agree and all eyes were on the butt fumble because of when it happened
 

Euclis20

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Mac is having a really nice rookie season, but the story has to be that everyone else has been awful. In a combined 27 starts, Wilson/Lawrence/Fields have had 0 games with a passer rating of 100+. It's an imperfect stat, but to not even see a single game hit that mark is ugly. Their teams are all in the bottom 4 league-wide in passer rating (joined by Carolina).
 

luckiestman

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Mac is having a really nice rookie season, but the story has to be that everyone else has been awful. In a combined 27 starts, Wilson/Lawrence/Fields have had 0 games with a passer rating of 100+. It's an imperfect stat, but to not even see a single game hit that mark is ugly. Their teams are all in the bottom 4 league-wide in passer rating (joined by Carolina).
What is troubling for Wilson is that the Jets O has moved the ball much better when he was out.
 

Eddie Jurak

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People need to stop disrespecting the absolute perfection of the butt fumble by comparing every bad Jets play to it. Watch the butt fumble again, it was just an exquisite display of ridiculous ineptitude.

This was a rookie qb with a terrible OL throwing a bad-timed flip pass. If Johnson doesn’t turn to block it’s probably a 8-yard completion. Carson Wentz throws worse INTs weekly.

Bad play by Wilson but nothing like the butt fumble.
I'll readily concede that it does not challenge butt fumble in terms of sheer badness and impact on the game. That being said, it wasn't "just" a bad play, it was a spectacularly bad play. Larry Bird was way, way better than John Havlicek, but Hondo didn't lose his place in the HoF when Bird was inducted.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Is that anything other than an illegal forward pass since he was across the line?

upon further review, it bounced off the RB. I thought it hit the ground.

pretty bad. About a three on the Butt Fumble scale, though
A pass is legal if any part of the QB is behind the line so I'm not sure whether that was illegal (since they picked it, the defense would have declined anyway).
 

DJnVa

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A pass is legal if any part of the QB is behind the line so I'm not sure whether that was illegal (since they picked it, the defense would have declined anyway).
It was legal, he was basically on the LOS when he tossed it.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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2012 Wilson: 64.1%, 3,118 yds, 7.9 y/a, 26 td, 10 int, 100.0 rating, 489 rush yds, 4 rush td, 11-5 record
2020 Herbert: 66.6%, 4,336 yds, 7.3 y/a, 31 td, 10 int, 98.3 rating, 234 rush yds, 5 rush td, 6-9 record
2016 Prescott: 67.8%, 3,667 yds, 8.0 y/a, 23 td, 4 int, 104.9 rating, 282 rush yds, 6 rush td, 13-3 record
2012 Griffin: 65.6%, 3,200 yds, 8.1 y/a, 20 td, 5 int, 102.4 rating, 815 rush yds, 7 rush td, 9-6 record
2004 Roethlisberger: 66.4%, 2,621 yds, 8.9 y/a, 17 td, 11 int, 98.1 rating, 144 rush yds, 1 rush td, 13-0 record
2018 Mayfield: 63.8%, 3,725 yds, 7.7 y/a, 27 td, 14 int, 93.7 rating, 131 rush yds, 0 rush td, 6-7 record
2021 Jones: 70.2%, 2,540 yds, 7.3 y/a, 14 td, 8 int, 94.7 rating, 60 rush yds, 0 rush td, 7-4 record


So yeah, Mac's season isn't up to par with some of those guys' for sure. He still has some season left though, and maybe he goes off. Or maybe he comes back to earth. Who knows. Either way, given the number of rookie QB seasons in the last 20 years that NFL players have had, this is one of the most impressive performances for sure.
After today, Mac’s stats match up pretty well with guys on that list. He’s on pace for more yards than any of them other than Herbert (even using a 16 game pace), middle of the pack in TDs (21) and picks (11), with a rating just below Roethlisberger and Herbert, but trending up. He actually has a decent chance at having a top 3 rating by a rookie ever (currently at 97.1, would need to get to 100.1 to be top 3)
 

luckiestman

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I'll readily concede that it does not challenge butt fumble in terms of sheer badness and impact on the game. That being said, it wasn't "just" a bad play, it was a spectacularly bad play. Larry Bird was way, way better than John Havlicek, but Hondo didn't lose his place in the HoF when Bird was inducted.
It wasn’t even his worse throw of the game. Here is when it left his hand.

46811
 

DJnVa

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Updated totals:

Jones: 268/381, 70.3%, 2850 yards, 16/8 TD/INT, 97.1 rating--MOST RECENT GAME: 23/32, 310 yards, 2/0, TD/INT.

Lawrence: 231/398, 58.0%, 2359 yards, 9/10 TD/INT, 72.2 rating (also rushed for 231 yards, 2 TDs)--MOST RECENT GAME: 23/42, 228 yards, 1/1 TD/INT.

Wilson: 118/205, 57.6%, 1313 yards, 4/10 TD/INT, 62.9 rating--MOST RECENT GAME:14/24, 145 yards, 0/1 TD/INT.

Fields: 115/198, 58.1%, 1361 yards, 4/8 TD/INT, 69.0 rating (also rushed for 311 yards, 2 TDs)

Lance: 25/48, 52.1%, 354 yards, 3/1 TD/INT, 88.4 rating (also rushed for 137 yards, 1 TD)

Mills: 140/209, 67.0%, 1357 yards, 7/8 TD/INT, 80.2 rating
 

Cellar-Door

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What is troubling for Wilson is that the Jets O has moved the ball much better when he was out.
That's not totally unusual for rookie QBs, but that they looked better with Mike White... yeah that's bad. Looking better with a guy like Flacco shouldn't be a big surprise, he was a starter for a decade, those guys are going to make less mistakes and identify pressure better.
 

luckiestman

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That's not totally unusual for rookie QBs, but that they looked better with Mike White... yeah that's bad. Looking better with a guy like Flacco shouldn't be a big surprise, he was a starter for a decade, those guys are going to make less mistakes and identify pressure better.
Josh Johnson too. Zach can do things physically these guys will never do but he is playing like he is snorting a lot of blow. Hopefully it’s youth and inexperience
 
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tims4wins

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Mac has won 8 games in 12 starts.

The other rookie QBs have won 6 games in 33 starts.

Team matters. A lot. But it feels like the Pats have the right guy at the helm. At least in 2021.
 

Euclis20

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It's been said a thousand times that Mac fell into the perfect spot to maximize his talents and minimize his weaknesses, but I'll flip it and say that the Pats got the rookie QB absolutely best suited for their system. Maybe Lawrence or one of the others ends up having a better career, but I'm pretty confident that none of them would be better than Mac at leading the 2021 Pats offense.
 

Cellar-Door

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It's been said a thousand times that Mac fell into the perfect spot to maximize his talents and minimize his weaknesses, but I'll flip it and say that the Pats got the rookie QB absolutely best suited for their system. Maybe Lawrence or one of the others ends up having a better career, but I'm pretty confident that none of them would be better than Mac at leading the 2021 Pats offense.
Probably true. Maybe Lawrence might have been as good, hard to tell which of his struggles would go away with better coaching, he made adjustments to take less risks as the season went on, he's thrown 1 pick in his last 4 games, but that meant they can't score, because guys aren't schemed open.

It was definitely always true that Mac was seen as the guy with a high floor but less ceiling, Fields and Lance were guys you knew had tons of talent but needed development, Lawrence was probably seen as closer to ready now and has high ceiling.

Mac has been better than I ever expected at a couple of his perceived weaknesses. 1 his arm isn't great, but it's a bit better than it looked on tape, 2. his placement has been really good on the deeper throws which helps. At Alabama a lot of his deep throws were wide open and a concern was that his arm being on the low end meant balls would hang up for DBs to close... they have at times, but his placement has been generally excellent, putting the ball somewhere his guy can get it but the defender can't.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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It's been said a thousand times that Mac fell into the perfect spot to maximize his talents and minimize his weaknesses, but I'll flip it and say that the Pats got the rookie QB absolutely best suited for their system. Maybe Lawrence or one of the others ends up having a better career, but I'm pretty confident that none of them would be better than Mac at leading the 2021 Pats offense.
I'm looking forward to one day reading an article or book that sheds real light on the team's thought process going into the 2021 draft.

My guess is that they were focused on Mac the entire way and that a lot of people, myself included, over-indexed the acquisition of Cam Newton, interpreting it as a true willingness to fundamentally change the offense (which would make a pick of Fields or Lance potentially make sense) when Cam was really just the best among a bunch of a bad choices in a year when Bill knew the team would struggle.

Even if they were focused on Mac, resisting the urge to trade up for him took some balls, given that there were a couple teams (New Orleans, maybe WFT, maybe Pittsburgh) that could have potentially jumped them. They might have figured that Jerry Jones hates trading down and both the Chargers and Jets really needed to make picks at their spots to get help for their young QBs. Still, their whole off-season and now future would have looked a lot different if Sean Payton had decided that he wanted to trade 28 and a future first to move up to 14 and get a guy who could be a natural Brees successor.
 

bakahump

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It was definitely always true that Mac was seen as the guy with a high floor but less ceiling,...
So doesn't the question now become "Is the current level of performance (which has to be his established floor) good enough to build a Superbowl team around?"
Followed by "From his newly established Floor (his play this season), is his ceiling any higher?"
 

Big McCorkle

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So doesn't the question now become "Is the current level of performance (which has to be his established floor) good enough to build a Superbowl team around?"
Followed by "From his newly established Floor (his play this season), is his ceiling any higher?"
And his current level of performance has the current Patriots offense, which by and large lacks any premier receiving talent, as the 11th best overall by DVOA and the 11th best by Pass DVOA which, combined with the defense's performance, has the team as the second best in the NFL and best in the AFC overall through ~75% of the season. He's 13th by EPA/play, 6th or 7th by PFF grade, and his rank in both goes up as you exclude more and more of his first games in the NFL as a rookie.

So, based off this twelve-game sample size, Jones's "floor" is arguably a borderline top-10 QB in the NFL. That seems like it's good enough to build a SB team around, especially since, by more or less all measures, the current team is a very viable contender already.
 

Mooch

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And his current level of performance has the current Patriots offense, which by and large lacks any premier receiving talent, as the 11th best overall by DVOA and the 11th best by Pass DVOA which, combined with the defense's performance, has the team as the second best in the NFL and best in the AFC overall through ~75% of the season. He's 13th by EPA/play, 6th or 7th by PFF grade, and his rank in both goes up as you exclude more and more of his first games in the NFL as a rookie.

So, based off this twelve-game sample size, Jones's "floor" is arguably a borderline top-10 QB in the NFL. That seems like it's good enough to build a SB team around, especially since, by more or less all measures, the current team is a very viable contender already.
Plus, at least three more seasons of a better-than-league average QB on a rookie contract which will allow you to spend cap space elsewhere. That's the most valuable commodity in the NFL.
 

bakahump

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And what are your thoughts on Part 2 of my question?

I am thinking while his floor has raised considerably (from maybe a top 20 to top 10-12 ).....his ceiling is probably about the same a top 5-8 Qb (maybe up slightly from an 8-10 Ceiling). Personally not sure he can break that ceiling but a top 5 QB is pretty high praise so I am certainly not disappointed.
 

Cellar-Door

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So doesn't the question now become "Is the current level of performance (which has to be his established floor) good enough to build a Superbowl team around?"
Followed by "From his newly established Floor (his play this season), is his ceiling any higher?"
I would caution.... this isn't his floor. He could very well play worse, QBs can and do vary a lot from year to year and development of players is not linear, some guys have whole careers that aren't much different from their rookie year, some guys have huge rises, some guys yo-yo around. How a player plays over a set of games doesn't create a new floor. Also QB performance is dependant on situation a lot, if the situation got worse (O-line issues, defense issues causing us to play from behind, McDaniels leaves and we get a new playcaller, etc.) his performance might well drop with it.

And his current level of performance has the current Patriots offense, which by and large lacks any premier receiving talent, as the 11th best overall by DVOA and the 11th best by Pass DVOA which, combined with the defense's performance, has the team as the second best in the NFL and best in the AFC overall through ~75% of the season. He's 13th by EPA/play, 6th or 7th by PFF grade, and his rank in both goes up as you exclude more and more of his first games in the NFL as a rookie.

So, based off this twelve-game sample size, Jones's "floor" is arguably a borderline top-10 QB in the NFL. That seems like it's good enough to build a SB team around, especially since, by more or less all measures, the current team is a very viable contender already.
And while he doesn't have an elite WR, he has a top O-line, running game and a lot of TE/WR depth, which given the system may matter more, the Patriots may not have any elite weapons on the outside, but they have a really deep talented offense, and an elite defense (which helps put the QB in comfortable positions).

Edit- which is kind of the point and why Mac playing well is so good, they built this team to make it easy on the QB, they could do that by not paying much money for the QB. That means they should be contenders for all of Mac's rookie deal.
 

BaseballJones

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I would caution.... this isn't his floor. He could very well play worse, QBs can and do vary a lot from year to year and development of players is not linear, some guys have whole careers that aren't much different from their rookie year, some guys have huge rises, some guys yo-yo around. How a player plays over a set of games doesn't create a new floor. Also QB performance is dependant on situation a lot, if the situation got worse (O-line issues, defense issues causing us to play from behind, McDaniels leaves and we get a new playcaller, etc.) his performance might well drop with it.
This is a great cautionary note. It's entirely possible that his 2022 season is worse - maybe significantly worse - than his 2021 season. Who knows what can happen. This might be the zenith of his NFL career. I mean, RGIII's best season by FAR was his rookie year. Now injuries derailed him, of course, but Mac isn't impervious to that either.

That being said, I think it's more likely that he continues to improve.
 

Cellar-Door

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This is a great cautionary note. It's entirely possible that his 2022 season is worse - maybe significantly worse - than his 2021 season. Who knows what can happen. This might be the zenith of his NFL career. I mean, RGIII's best season by FAR was his rookie year. Now injuries derailed him, of course, but Mac isn't impervious to that either.

That being said, I think it's more likely that he continues to improve.
Yeah my bet would be he's a guy who is steady and gets a bit better each year.

Another example of a non-injury guy where his rookie year wasn't his floor is Wentz. He was ok his rookie year, he was VERY good years 2 and 3, still good year 4. Then a bunch of coaching and support changes happen and he TANKS year 5.year 6 he goes back to his old coach, and a team with a better line... back to good.
 

Cotillion

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Yeah my bet would be he's a guy who is steady and gets a bit better each year.

Another example of a non-injury guy where his rookie year wasn't his floor is Wentz. He was ok his rookie year, he was VERY good years 2 and 3, still good year 4. Then a bunch of coaching and support changes happen and he TANKS year 5.year 6 he goes back to his old coach, and a team with a better line... back to good.
SYSTEM QB!!!!! :p