Tracking the rookie QBs

SMU_Sox

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JT's review of Fields. Fields had a lot of issues: footwork, timing and anticipation, making the right reads, but JT also blasts the offensive play-calling. I was hoping Fields didn't have to play so early and I hated his landing spot.
 

nighthob

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You always to feel bad when a QB ends up on a franchise whose best QB is Sid Luckman (and the reason this is so depressing is that Luckman was from the first generation of QBs that actually ran the offense, prior to the spread offense catching on most teams relied on HBs/TBs to pass the ball).
 

brandonchristensen

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If the draft was recalled and all the players were able to be drafted again from scratch, does Lawrence still get #1
 

SMU_Sox

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If the draft was recalled and all the players were able to be drafted again from scratch, does Lawrence still get #1
Hard to imagine he wouldn’t be taken first overall. JAX is a shitshow and Meyer is in over his head. I think you have to separate Lawrence from his situation more than any other rookie QB. There are already rumors about the team not buying into Meyers and also that Meyers might leave for college.
 

SMU_Sox

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Hah, yeah I noticed that too...

Life as a rookie is hard as fuck and your situation matters a ton. Chicago coaching and play-calling is inept, and they have a miserable OL. Nagy will be gone soon. JAC, same across the board but also a bad roster on D. Meyers is already rumored to be looking to head out. Lance, LIKE FIELDS AND WILSON SHOULD BE, is sitting his first season/number of games. Mac is playing in an old-school offense with mediocre to bad skill guys and a line that is surprisingly awful so far in pass pro given expectations. Fields and Wilson also play behind crap lines. Most rookies stink especially at the hardest position to play. Wilson is learning that the throws he made against college corners in 1:1s won't work in the NFL. Fields is still learning pocket presence and adjusting to the speed of progressions. Mac has shown excellent anticipation for a rookie but he has been late on throws too. It happens. I expect all of these guys to struggle year one. There is the avg rookie QB EPA rank the last 5-6 years is like 25th in the NFL. All of these guys had issues that wouldn't be fixed in 3 games and a lot of them landed in bad spots which is just as important as anything else for their development if not the most important thing.
 

DJnVa

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Updated totals:

Jones: 81/120, 67.5%, 737 yards, 2/3 TD/INT, 79.1 rating

Lawrence: 64/118, 54.2%, 669 yards, 5/7 TD/INT, 60.3 rating

Wilson: 58/105, 55.2%, 628 yards, 2/7 TD/INT, 51.6 rating

Fields: 10/35, 40.0%, 138 yards, 0/1 TD/INT, 39.9 rating

Lands: 1/1, 100%, 5 yards, 1/0 TD/INT, 127.1 rating
 

ehaz

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PFF - Is it time to panic about the 2021 NFL rookie QB class?

Not surprisingly the answer is no. Especially on Mac Jones, who despite the issues over the last two weeks, has his panic meter set at 0.0 by PFF:

With a 72.2 overall grade, Jones has been quite comfortably the highest-graded quarterback of the bunch. The speed with which he plays the game from the pocket and comfort within the Patriots offense are evident every time you flip on the tape. Of all the quarterbacks, his pros and cons so far have easily been the most similar to his pre-draft scouting reports.

You see plays like the one below where he’s almost impervious to pressure.

That’s the kind of pocket where Fields completely abandoned the play call when he saw pressure Sunday, but Jones hangs in, confident as can be. While it didn’t result in a completion there, it’s a skill that will serve him well in the future.

Where he’s struggled, though, is vertical throws. At Alabama, he had windows that anyone could hit on go-balls and posts at times. That hasn’t been the case in New England: He’s gone 4-of-16 on deep balls this season, including going 0-for-7 on throws over 25 yards downfield. Only Ben Roethlisberger has a worse adjusted completion percentage among starters on such throws.

He has still threaded some beauties, but they often come at the intermediate levels. His six big-time throws are tops in the class and rank eighth in the entire NFL. The wins haven’t quite come yet, but Jones has exceeded expectations out of the gate.
 

E5 Yaz

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Cellar-Door

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Or Matt Nagy sucks and we shouldn't give HC jobs to guys who called plays for the Chiefs in a handful of games.
Nagy and Pace should both have been fired at the end of last year, but this game was indefensible. To have the opponent's star come out and say how easy playing you was because you didn't do any of the things they were worried you might because of your QB's skillset is just damning.
 

luckiestman

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Or Matt Nagy sucks and we shouldn't give HC jobs to guys who called plays for the Chiefs in a handful of games.

Bears wins 5 years before Nagy: 8, 5, 6, 3, 5

Bears wins w/Nagy: 12, 8, 8 (all with Trubisky) 2 playoff appearances.
 

scott bankheadcase

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Hard to judge because every qb is in a different situation with the team around him, but will be interesting to see if Lance develops any differently than the others that are starting basically right away.

lance being brought in for certain situations (he’s seen the end zone twice now in 5 plays) maybe gives him a little taste while developing his skills. I never know the right approach with rookies, so just something interesting to watch.
 

Cellar-Door

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Bears wins 5 years before Nagy: 8, 5, 6, 3, 5

Bears wins w/Nagy: 12, 8, 8 (all with Trubisky) 2 playoff appearances.
Ready for my hot take.... Trubisky wasn't that bad, in fact he was pretty solid and should get another chance somewhere.

Nagy started off really interesting in CHI, each year his offense has gotten less and less inventive, and less and less tailored. It's like he got burned by Trubisky mistakes and decided... "fuck it if the offense takes no risks and just trys not to screw up it can't make mistakes" instead of the correct approach of "every QB throws picks and fumbles, you just need to be explosive enough that you don't mind losing it 1-2 times a game"

Edit- should also note that Trubisky was going into his 2nd year (so usually a big improvement) but more importantly there was a huge roster talent jump. They upgraded all the WRs most notably going from Kendall Wright (cut never played in the NFL again) as WR #1 to Allen Robinson (one of the best in the league), upgraded at TE, added KHALIL MACK, Roquan Smith, and a bunch of depth on both sides (also John Fox was also a really bad coach.

Nagy started off an interesting coach, but also, when you have the most success your first year then trail off fast it's usually a concern, especially when you add 3 STAR players that first year.
 
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SMU_Sox

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So let me get this straight. Chicago has a piss-poor OL, the play-calling has been bad (HT JT O'Sullivan) and their solution is to... put him in 5 wide situations with just the OL to help in pass pro? Nagy, an offensive HC, has had success because of Chicago's defense. How is he as an offensive coach this fucking bad?
 

Cellar-Door

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So let me get this straight. Chicago has a piss-poor OL, the play-calling has been bad (HT JT O'Sullivan) and their solution is to... put him in 5 wide situations with just the OL to help in pass pro? Nagy, an offensive HC, has had success because of Chicago's defense. How is he as an offensive coach this fucking bad?
Hey, when your rookie QB runs a 4.4 why would you even consider running some RPO, or maybe some bootlegs? Nah straight drop. Also lets leave our tackle 1 v 1 on Myles Garrett no matter what... oh he has 3 sacks.. well Peters will stop him now.
 

Marciano490

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Didn’t the Bears also give away a ton of draft capital for Mack and Mitch? It’s hard to remain competitive year after year without fresh blood coming in.
 

Cellar-Door

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Didn’t the Bears also give away a ton of draft capital for Mack and Mitch? It’s hard to remain competitive year after year without fresh blood coming in.
Two 1sts, 3 3rds, and a 6th for Mack, Trubisky a 2nd and a 7th.

So basically, a first, a trade down from 1st to 2nd, a trade down from 6th to 7th and three 3rds.

The first and the thirds smart (down 4 picks), but the team falling apart has to do with bad coaching, a bad GM and the QB not working out.
 

SMU_Sox

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Hey, when your rookie QB runs a 4.4 why would you even consider running some RPO, or maybe some bootlegs? Nah straight drop. Also lets leave our tackle 1 v 1 on Myles Garrett no matter what... oh he has 3 sacks.. well Peters will stop him now.
I know right? Have a guy who needs help with plays that are easier to process? The RPO is your friend. Nagy is on thin ice… have you heard his press conferences or how he is handling the QB situation? It’s such a clusterfuck right now. No way he survives the season or black Monday. I guess the team could rebound like last year but I don’t think so. Seems highly unlikely anyway.

Rookie QBs struggling their first 3 games? Whoa stop the presses. I know writers have to writers and screens need to be clicked. Aside from Watson and Herbert the last 4-5 year wave of rookie QBs have struggled. Some rebounded and some didn’t - that’s simple but true. Some luckily didn’t have to start until year 2. PFF’s headline week 3 about it is malpractice. Come on guys - we don’t need to ask ourselves if we overrated last years QB class after 3 games.
 

DourDoerr

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lance being brought in for certain situations (he’s seen the end zone twice now in 5 plays) maybe gives him a little taste while developing his skills. I never know the right approach with rookies, so just something interesting to watch.
IDK but it seems somewhat clear to me that sitting a rookie QB is the right approach if you can manage it. Sometimes - most times? - it's in the team's best short-term interest at least (not a good vet option, rookie salary fit with roster, pressure from fans, pressure on coach and GM, etc.) to play that rookie right away. Lance getting the benefit of watching JG prepare, learning the speed of the game, and getting inserted into limited possessions where he's best able to succeed sure seems like a great way for him to gain confidence and learn good habits for the long-term.

The second hlf of this is it also gives the team another year to develop, draft and sign free agent help for the offense. Right now, the rookie QB's are taking an absolute beating. Let the backup take those reps for a year. Hard to resist the siren call though.
 

sodenj5

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Matt Nagy is a poor man’s Adam Gase at this point.
 

Super Nomario

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IDK but it seems somewhat clear to me that sitting a rookie QB is the right approach if you can manage it. Sometimes - most times? - it's in the team's best short-term interest at least (not a good vet option, rookie salary fit with roster, pressure from fans, pressure on coach and GM, etc.) to play that rookie right away. Lance getting the benefit of watching JG prepare, learning the speed of the game, and getting inserted into limited possessions where he's best able to succeed sure seems like a great way for him to gain confidence and learn good habits for the long-term.

The second hlf of this is it also gives the team another year to develop, draft and sign free agent help for the offense. Right now, the rookie QB's are taking an absolute beating. Let the backup take those reps for a year. Hard to resist the siren call though.
I agree with most / all of this, but note that the bolded do not necessarily align with being in the team's best short-term interest. The decision-makers' best short-term interest, yes.
 

GB5

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Going back about 10 posts, in my opinion if there was a redraft today, Lawrence would go no. 1 overall, without too much consideration to the contrary. Lawrence would have gone number 1, in almost every draft of the last 20-25 years. He would have been the number one pick since he played his first game at Clemson. The difficult part in evaluating these highly drafted QB's is the correlation between bad coach/program and a young qb who struggles. Most teams who are picking in the top 5-10 have crappy coaches and sub par organizations. Its why you see the same teams drafting up there year after year, NYJ, Cincy, Cleveland, Washington, Detroit, and so on. Bad organizations, continually hire bad coaches, who have no job security so play the high draft pick QB, who usually isnt ready, and has no structure for them. They then let the QB wing it 40 plus times per game, with almost always a horrendous OL, so the QB gets the crap kicked out of him, throws a ton of Int's, because they are shellshocked...and see ghosts, that type of stuff. QB in the NFL is such a hard position to play, if you start taking these kids who have been the best players in the country in high school, dominate in college and then show up in the NFL to be the savior and get smashed quickly, some of these guys will never come out of the tailspin.

The way the Pats are handling Mac Jones has been prudent, at least before Sunday. Short and safe. Stay out of trouble. No turnovers. When you get a month or six weeks into this rhythm, we will slowly feed you a few more deep balls, per game.
 

johnmd20

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Ready for my hot take.... Trubisky wasn't that bad, in fact he was pretty solid and should get another chance somewhere.

Nagy started off really interesting in CHI, each year his offense has gotten less and less inventive, and less and less tailored. It's like he got burned by Trubisky mistakes and decided... "fuck it if the offense takes no risks and just trys not to screw up it can't make mistakes" instead of the correct approach of "every QB throws picks and fumbles, you just need to be explosive enough that you don't mind losing it 1-2 times a game"

Edit- should also note that Trubisky was going into his 2nd year (so usually a big improvement) but more importantly there was a huge roster talent jump. They upgraded all the WRs most notably going from Kendall Wright (cut never played in the NFL again) as WR #1 to Allen Robinson (one of the best in the league), upgraded at TE, added KHALIL MACK, Roquan Smith, and a bunch of depth on both sides (also John Fox was also a really bad coach.

Nagy started off an interesting coach, but also, when you have the most success your first year then trail off fast it's usually a concern, especially when you add 3 STAR players that first year.
Nagy was broken by the double doink. Since that moment, he's regressed.
 

DanoooME

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Nagy started off really interesting in CHI, each year his offense has gotten less and less inventive, and less and less tailored. It's like he got burned by Trubisky mistakes and decided... "fuck it if the offense takes no risks and just trys not to screw up it can't make mistakes" instead of the correct approach of "every QB throws picks and fumbles, you just need to be explosive enough that you don't mind losing it 1-2 times a game"
Can you explain this to Pete Fucking Carroll? And while you're at it, tell him he needs a new DC desperately.
 

Joe Sixpack

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The Bears offense was running much better during the period of time when Bill Lazor was calling the plays last year. Maybe not a coincidence.
 

Silverdude2167

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Flores took over the Titanic after it hit the iceberg and just had a 10 win season. I’m fine with his record as a coach.
Yeah, I feel like if you are one game under 500 two years into your career and were 5-11 after your first year. This should be something to celebrate not criticize.

If we take a look at BB's first two years in NE he was one game better than Flores (and won the SB but not the point).

I just realized this is a random Instagram post, so nvm.
 

rodderick

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Yeah, I feel like if you are one game under 500 two years into your career and were 5-11 after your first year. This should be something to celebrate not criticize.

If we take a look at BB's first two years in NE he was one game better than Flores (and won the SB but not the point).

I just realized this is a random Instagram post, so nvm.
People forgot quickly how awful that 2019 Dolphins team are. 5 weeks into the season people were discussing them potentially being the worst team to ever take the field in the NFL. Flores going 5-11 with that squad is pretty impressive.
 

sodenj5

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People forgot quickly how awful that 2019 Dolphins team are. 5 weeks into the season people were discussing them potentially being the worst team to ever take the field in the NFL. Flores going 5-11 with that squad is pretty impressive.
Exactly. If they have a losing season this year, that would be a clear sign of regression, but Miami is currently going through the most difficult stretch of their season and have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the league after the Tampa game.

For as bad as the Buffalo game was, they still have time to right the ship.
 

mauf

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Exactly. If they have a losing season this year, that would be a clear sign of regression, but Miami is currently going through the most difficult stretch of their season and have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the league after the Tampa game.

For as bad as the Buffalo game was, they still have time to right the ship.
Iirc, the Pats went 6-10 in Parcells’ third season. I wouldn’t worry about Flores even if the Dolphins go 8-9 or 7-10 this year. (There may, however, be cause to worry about Tua if that happens.)
 

tims4wins

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Iirc, the Pats went 6-10 in Parcells’ third season. I wouldn’t worry about Flores even if the Dolphins go 8-9 or 7-10 this year. (There may, however, be cause to worry about Tua if that happens.)
Correct. 5-11, 10-6, 6-10, 11-5, 32-32.
 

DJnVa

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Updated totals:

Jones: 112/160, 70.0%, 1012 yards, 4/4 TD/INT, 84.7 rating

Lawrence: 81/142, 57.0%, 873 yards, 5/7 TD/INT, 66.4 rating

Wilson: 79/139, 56.8%, 925 yards, 4/8 TD/INT, 62.8 rating

Fields: 25/52, 48.1%, 347 yards, 0/2 TD/INT, 53.9 rating

Lance: 10/19, 52.6%, 162 yards, 3/0 TD/INT, 121.1 rating
 

BaseballJones

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Updated totals:

Jones: 112/160, 70.0%, 1012 yards, 4/4 TD/INT, 84.7 rating

Lawrence: 81/142, 57.0%, 873 yards, 5/7 TD/INT, 66.4 rating

Wilson: 79/139, 56.8%, 925 yards, 4/8 TD/INT, 62.8 rating

Fields: 25/52, 48.1%, 347 yards, 0/2 TD/INT, 53.9 rating

Lance: 10/19, 52.6%, 162 yards, 3/0 TD/INT, 121.1 rating
They all count, but two of Mac's INTs were tipped passes, and another one was when Jonnu Smith caught the ball, then bobbled it, and then almost literally tossed it right to a Saints DB for a pick six.
 

Cellar-Door

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They all count, but two of Mac's INTs were tipped passes, and another one was when Jonnu Smith caught the ball, then bobbled it, and then almost literally tossed it right to a Saints DB for a pick six.
The tipped ones were both bad decisions/throws though. You can't really parse those out, tipped picks happen, just like you don't add in dropped picks.
 

BaseballJones

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The throw to Agholor when a guy was about to crash into Mac was actually a really nice throw under extreme pressure. He threw it to a place where only Agholor could catch it.

Of course, Agholor, instead of making a really nice catch, batted the ball up in the air right to a defender for a pick.

In any case, Mac has made some mistakes but overall he's played pretty well.
 

Cellar-Door

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The throw to Agholor when a guy was about to crash into Mac was actually a really nice throw under extreme pressure. He threw it to a place where only Agholor could catch it.

Of course, Agholor, instead of making a really nice catch, batted the ball up in the air right to a defender for a pick.

In any case, Mac has made some mistakes but overall he's played pretty well.
He threw high over the middle, if Agholor doesn't tip it, it goes over his head to the waiting safety. He's under pressure, but he's still throwing high down the middle to a guy in tight coverage with safety help.

Mac has played pretty well for a rookie, but people need to stop excusing his poor plays as "not his fault", he made the throw, it was a dangerous one, it got picked, he's made mistakes, he's a rookie. I'm sure if you go through the tape plenty of the poor plays by the other rookies could be explained away the same way.
 

BaseballJones

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He threw high over the middle, if Agholor doesn't tip it, it goes over his head to the waiting safety. He's under pressure, but he's still throwing high down the middle to a guy in tight coverage with safety help.

Mac has played pretty well for a rookie, but people need to stop excusing his poor plays as "not his fault", he made the throw, it was a dangerous one, it got picked, he's made mistakes, he's a rookie. I'm sure if you go through the tape plenty of the poor plays by the other rookies could be explained away the same way.
I get it. But that throw was actually in a good spot for Agholor to catch it. But he didn't.

I didn't say it wasn't Mac's fault. I'm pointing out that it was a ball that was in Agholor's hands - albeit a tough catch - that got tipped into an INT. Lots of times that pass gets knocked to the ground or is even caught by the receiver.