Tracking the Draft Prospects: Quarterback

mascho

Kane is Able
SoSH Member
Nov 30, 2007
14,952
Silver Spring, Maryland
Maybe it is just me, but I take sack rate numbers with a grain of salt.  One, they are dependent on offense, in that a QB in a classic dropback scheme will likely take more sacks than a QB in a spread.  Two, they don't tell the whole story.  You can't really evaluate how a QB handles pressure by just looking at his sack rate, you'd need to go back and look at each play on film to get the whole story.  If sack rate alone told the story, Tommy Rees would be a first round pick.  But he threw 13 picks.  Learning to take a sack is one of the toughest things a QB has to learn.  It is nice to avoid a sack, but not by forcing a throw that gets picked.  
 
Also, here are the five best single-season sack rates in NFL history.  From here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_sacked_perc_single_season.htm
 
1.  Marino 1998 (0.98%)
2.  Steve Walsh 1991 (1.16 %)
3.  Joey Harrington 2003 (1.60 %)
4.  Mark Rypien 1991 (1.64 %)
5.  Jim Hart 1975 (1.71 %)
 
Marino threw 15 picks.  Walsh threw 6 in 8 games.  Harrington led the league with 22.  And so on...
 
EDIT:  And just so no one thinks I am hiding anything, Rypien threw 11 picks and Hart threw 19.  And number 6 on that list is Peyton in 2009.  Who threw 16 picks.  
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
RedOctober3829 said:
Maybe the Pats can auction off 29 for Bridgewater if it comes to this.
McNair:

"We won't repeat the David Carr mistake."

Implies not only not starting not ready QB out of the chute, but also passing on the position in the 1st round, which would be good for us.

This is one year I'll be disappointed if we cannot flip 1st rounder.
 

Rough Carrigan

reasons within Reason
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
dcmissle said:
McNair:

"We won't repeat the David Carr mistake."

Implies not only not starting not ready QB out of the chute, but also passing on the position in the 1st round, which would be good for us.

This is one year I'll be disappointed if we cannot flip 1st rounder.
Maybe it also means "And we won't expect a new quarterback to get the shit kicked out of him his first 3 years because we forgot to build an offensive line".
 

DanoooME

above replacement level
SoSH Member
Mar 16, 2008
19,831
Henderson, NV
Last night on NFLN, they had Mayock's top 5 QBs.
 
1. Manziel
2. Bortles
3. Carr
4. Garoppolo
5t. Mettenberger
5t. Bridgewater
 
And Mayock seems to be in tune with how things generally go.  If Bridgewater slips to #32, I hope Seattle trades out for someone desperate for a QB too.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
$100 to the Jimmy Fund Bridgewater turns out better than Carr and Garoppolo. This anti-TBW group think keeps feeding itself. Soon TBW is going to be an undrafted FA.
 
We can define details of the bet later. But I've seen too much from Carr and Garoppolo to think they are anything but thoroughly mediocre if that.
 

DanoooME

above replacement level
SoSH Member
Mar 16, 2008
19,831
Henderson, NV
SMU_Sox said:
$100 to the Jimmy Fund Bridgewater turns out better than Carr and Garoppolo. This anti-TBW group think keeps feeding itself. Soon TBW is going to be an undrafted FA.
 
We can define details of the bet later. But I've seen too much from Carr and Garoppolo to think they are anything but thoroughly mediocre if that.
 
Bridgewater is better than those two I think as well.  Hell, I think he's much better than anyone in last year's draft (Geno Smith, I'm looking at you).
 
I don't get the Teddy hate either.  Are people really thinking one mediocre pro day should knock him from a possible #1 overall to the 2nd round?
 
Somebody will smarten up and grab him or someone is going to get a steal in the late first/early second rounds.
 
And the people shitting on these guys about their height?  I read/saw something about Teddy even being small at 6-1.  Didn't anyone learn their lesson about that yet?  Manziel is going to be a star in this league.  Bridgewater should be a solid pro.  Carr and Garoppolo are fads.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
Thank you, Dano. I feel like scouts go for the look and forget that looks alone don't make you a star. Russell Wilson? Stud. Drew Brees? Stud. Oh no, they aren't 8 feet tall!! The horror! I bet they date ugly chicks too.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
SMU_Sox said:
$100 to the Jimmy Fund Bridgewater turns out better than Carr and Garoppolo. This anti-TBW group think keeps feeding itself. Soon TBW is going to be an undrafted FA.
 
We can define details of the bet later. But I've seen too much from Carr and Garoppolo to think they are anything but thoroughly mediocre if that.
Could well be. Of course, what this means at this point is anyone's guess. They all could turn out well. Or they could all suck.

Bridgewater's fate turns on much more than one pro day. And his apparent fall is news, as he was hailed here and elsewhere as a once-every-ten-years guy.

If he falls and people want to argue that all 32 teams have their heads up their asses, God bless them.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
[media]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmyPaOy7OTs
[/media]
 
His pocket presence gives me a chubby. He had one bad fall but the way he dodges pressure seemingly at ease while he watches his receivers develop their routes is just a work of art. His performance against Florida was amazing.
 
But if you really want to see some FAP worthy TBW highlights...
 
[media]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kTkH4Nrg2Y
[/media]
 
It might have started out poorly with a safety but... just watch the rest. Look at his pass at 3:01 and subsequent run.
 
What I love about TBW is his pocket presence and how he handles the rush. The guy is brilliant against the rush. He's not perfect and has room for growth and you'll see occasional mental errors like that safety in the beginning of the Miami game but for the most part he effortlessly gets around the rush, stays in the pocket and delivers perfectly timed strikes. (One last great play - 6:10-6:20) TBW sees the pressure coming from the middle with both edges effectively sealed and defenders getting free. He scrambles back and finds a receiver who is semi open but puts the ball on the money. It's a thing of beauty. 
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

Member
SoSH Member
May 11, 2011
10,391
NH
Sorry SMU, although I see his ability to get away from pressure, he's incredibly inaccurate. I believe that's why his stock is falling.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
Sorry SMU, although I see his ability to get away from pressure, he's incredibly inaccurate. I believe that's why his stock is falling.
 
He had a 71.0% completion rate in 2013, 68.5% in 2012. 
 
Of all the qualified passers in 2013 TBW had the 2nd highest completion %. I don't get it, Eck.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
Eric Adelson sums it up best, imo anyway.
 

 
NFL draft experts like to talk about "measurables" at this time of here. So here's one:
Four.
That's the number of interceptions thrown in the entire 2013 season by Teddy Bridgewater. Four interceptions against 31 touchdowns. A year ago, that kind of season would have only reinforced the widely held belief that Bridgewater was a top-two pick in the 2014 draft.
Instead, he's plummeting.
Mike Mayock of NFL Network said this weekend he would not take Bridgewater in the first round; Mayock wasformerly very high on the former Louisville star.
Mayock's not alone. The consensus on Bridgewater has veered from highly coveted to highly criticized in the months since he threw for three touchdowns and 447 yards in the Russell Athletic Bowl against Miami. The change in regard for Bridgewater is getting beyond the realm of the curious. It's more in the neighborhood of ridiculous.
NFL cognoscenti seem to flock together: It's a copycat league. Strangely, though, there's little copying of what works among quarterbacks at the pro level. Football minds keep gravitating to the quarterbacks who show unrefined physical prowess over those who have a clear track record on the field. You'd think GMs would learn their lesson after watching Tom Brady and Drew Brees win Super Bowls. Instead, the chase seems to be on for the next Jeff George. Only a month or so after Bridgewater finished his college career, Russell Wilson won the Super Bowl with the Seahawks. Wilson also had four interceptions in his final college season at Wisconsin, against 33 touchdowns. His completion percentage (72.8) was also comparable to Bridgewater's (71.0). Wilson went in the third round, and most thought he would be a first-round pick if he were just a little bit taller. Bridgewater is just a little bit taller: 6-foot-2 to Wilson's 5-11. Is it a second chance to draft a seasoned passer like Wilson?
 



View gallery
.

Or is it a second chance to whiff? Bridgewater is drifting in credibility while former Pitt quarterback Tom Savage, who transferred twice and never got close to the statistical display shown consistently by Bridgewater, is perhaps the hottest name in the draft. Savage is 6-5 with a big arm, and he reminds scouts of Nick Foles, who switched his commitment from Arizona State to Michigan State and then left East Lansing for Arizona. So transferring is now a good sign?
 
What's even sillier about all this is Bridgewater had lots of decision-making responsibility at the line of scrimmage at Louisville. He took over as starter at age 18 and threw for nearly 10,000 yards over three seasons. His interception count dropped from 12 in his first year to 8 to 4. His intelligence and work ethic have never been questioned, and any concerns about his ability to beat top teams vanished more than a year ago, when Bridgewater dissected a Florida defense considered one of the best in the nation – led by coordinator Dan Quinn, who would leave after that Sugar Bowl for the Seahawks and a Super Bowl title. Savage's only comparable game came in 2013 when he took on title-bound Florida State and threw for 201 yards and two interceptions.
So what happened to Bridgewater? For one thing, he had a poor pro day. He took off his throwing gloves for the occasion – a decision that a good agent would have talked him out of – and he looked wobbly. For many draft experts, it was the first live look at Bridgewater, and it didn't go well. How that one day in an artificial football laboratory undoes three full years of actual play is hard to figure.
But that's what's happened. Experts like Mayock have looked back at the game film and found new flaws in Bridgewater: his deep balls aren't as crisp; his outside-the-hashes targets aren't as accurate. Why that didn't result in more than four interceptions last season is anyone's guess. Perhaps American Athletic Conference defenses are simply inferior. Though that hasn't hurt UCF's Blake Bortles' draft stock much.
The other worry about Bridgewater is his size. Not his height, but his heft. According to his NFL.com combine profile, Bridgewater is 214 pounds and has a "very lean, narrow frame with limited bulk." In fact, a major chunk of the "weaknesses" section of that report has to do with Bridgewater's thickness. "Long term durability could become a concern," it says, "without continued strength and weight gains."
Well, about that: Bridgewater needed jaw surgery during college and dropped from 222 pounds to 196. He's put most of that weight back on, and he's likely to add even more bulk once he gets into a nutrition program with his new team. He's only 21, and likely to get bigger as he matures. Bortles, by the way, is a year older than Bridgewater and Savage is nearly three. It's hard to argue their potential is greater than Bridgewater's just because they have less starting experience.
 
And as for durability, just revisit the November night in 2012 when Louisville traveled to Rutgers with a BCS bid in the balance. Bridgewater didn't start, as he had a broken wrist and a badly sprained ankle. But he asked to go into the game when the Cardinals fell behind, and promptly rallied them from 11 points down to win. Rutgers coach Kyle Flood called it one of the greatest college performances he's ever seen.
 
It's easy to wonder if racism is in play here. Alex Smith's draft previewreads almost exactly like Bridgewater's and he went first overall. Now he's a veteran starter for a playoff team. But instead of something nefarious, Bridgewater's fall is more likely because draft experts gravitate to big: big arms, big bodies and big personalities. Statistics and winning are easily dismissed as products of a system. Just ask former Cal standout Aaron Rodgers.
Bridgewater isn't a big talker – there wasn't even a Heisman campaign for him – so he's not going to pump his own tires. That might be hurting him too, especially compared to the always-entertaining Johnny Manziel, who had a former U.S. president at his pro day.
But if you want an egoless, driven, smart and proven quarterback to lead your wayward franchise, you could do worse than to part with the growing majority of the draft experts and pick Teddy Bridgewater.
The consequences for those who pass on him will certainly be "measurable."
 
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

Member
SoSH Member
May 11, 2011
10,391
NH
SMU_Sox said:
 
He had a 71.0% completion rate in 2013, 68.5% in 2012. 
 
Of all the qualified passers in 2013 TBW had the 2nd highest completion %. I don't get it, Eck.
 
Watching the tape. He had a lot of balls the receivers had to make plays on to catch. He overthrows a lot too. He doesn't seem to see the field well and I can see him getting picked a lot. He stares down his intended receiver as well. Don't get me wrong, if he ends up in a West Coast offense he'll likely strive but he's going to have some trouble getting acclimated to the NFL.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
 
Watching the tape. He had a lot of balls the receivers had to make plays on to catch. He overthrows a lot too. He doesn't seem to see the field well and I can see him getting picked a lot. He stares down his intended receiver as well. Don't get me wrong, if he ends up in a West Coast offense he'll likely strive but he's going to have some trouble getting acclimated to the NFL.
 
I disagree he stares down receivers. In fact I think it is the opposite in virtually everything I watched. He typically scans the field and does not lock onto one guy. There is criticism of his play but you've pointed to two attributes that are typically brought up as positives for him.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
Matt Waldman on Accuracy for QB's:
 
 
Teddy Bridgewater has star-caliber accuracy everywhere but the deep ball, which is his one glaring weakness on
tape. However, the Louisville offense ran a short-to-deep system with its reads and this scheme often gives a quarterback a
lot less time to set up a throw for the vertical game. Bridgewater will have to get better, but Matt Ryan, Drew Brees and
Tom Brady had issues with the deep ball entering the league. Ryan’s accuracy beyond 35-40 yards only got better within
the past two years.
 
On Decision Making:
 

The Best: Bridgewater displayed great command of a pro-style offense that, lacking a dynamic ground game, rested
entirely on his shoulders. Defenses knew they had to stop the passing game, but couldn’t. Everything about Bridgewater’s
game is fluid and he makes few mistakes.
 
On Ball Handling (not as important but still an essential QB skill):
 

The Best: Garoppolo, Murray and Bridgewater execute thorough play fakes. Murray has a strong variety of fakes in his
arsenal. Bridgewater not only has Murray’s arsenal of fakes, but he also possesses a strong pump fake and shoulder fake
that he can deliver in the pocket or on the move.
 
On Pocket Presence:
 

The Best: Bridgewater displays sound, consistent technique to avoid edge pressure and middle pressure. He understands
how to time his moves to get maximum separation from a defender’s angle. The only time I see him vulnerable to pressure
is when there’s a blown assignment and the defender is on top of Bridgewater at the earliest stages of his drop. An
underrated aspect of Bridgewater’s game is his toughness. He rarely takes big hits, but he has sustained some highlightreel
shots and still started 39 consecutive games at Louisville.
 
 
On Durability:
 

Bridgewater started 39 consecutive games. The one time he didn’t start, he came off the bench with a bad ankle sprain and
broken wrist to beat Rutgers and put Louisville in the Sugar Bowl. Bridgewater doesn’t take a lot of hits because he’s quick,
fluid, and has a great release. However, he has proven his toughness and ability to play at a high level with injuries.
 
Waldman has TBW as a guy who has, tied with Johnny Football, the highest football IQ in his class. 
 
 
Finally: this is Waldman's final take. Buy his RSP...
 
Bridgewater and Johnny Manziel are my top two players
and they are neck-and-neck in my rankings. The reason
is that their talents are uncannily similar, but their
methods of delivery couldn’t be more different.
I would take either player for my team if I was an NFL
GM or a fantasy owner. The question is which player is
the best match for the team that I want to build.
Bridgewater has fantastic command of technique, strong
mobility within the design of a play, and pinpoint
accuracy on some of the most difficult throws expected
from a quarterback. Moreover, he was productive and
efficient throughout his career without the benefit of a
quality ground game.
In contrast to Johnny Manziel, whose reputation is built
on vocal leadership and physical play, what isn’t talked
about enough is Bridgewater’s physical and mental
toughness. The Louisville quarterback has played in 39
consecutive games, including a contest against a quality
Rutgers defense in 2012 where he led a comeback with a
broken wrist and an ankle injury that prevented him from
planting his front leg.
His ability to adjust his playing style, make accurate
throws, and endure punishment while playing hurt
earned Louisville a trip to the Sugar Bowl. In that game a
month later, a healthy Bridgewater carried his offense,
decimating a strong Florida defense with NFL-caliber
reads and throws into tight coverage.
Bridgewater’s performances against SEC teams like
Florida and Kentucky proved he could take punishment
and maintain his poise and execution. At 214 pounds,
concerns about his frame are unwarranted.
A student of the game, Bridgewater’s offensive
coordinator Andrew Watson says the quarterback is the
best player he ever coached. The coach had to compose
himself while telling the media how much Bridgewater
meant to the Louisville team.
Watson says Bridgewater absorbs football concepts with
a voracious hunger for knowledge. Based on the way
Bridgewater attacks defenses, I am confident he can
start as a rookie and grow into the role.
Although Bridgewater has good speed and can get first
downs when he breaks the pocket, he is not a big-play
runner that will require NFL defenses to implement a spy.
Where he thrives is stretching the field from sideline to
sideline and picking apart zone coverage.
The quarterback has the best footwork that I have seen
since I began this publication. His drops are quick,
defined, and smooth. Best yet, he’s in such control over
20
his feet that when he reads pressure he’s capable of
altering the length and direction of his drops.
Where Manziel’s efforts appear chaotic and difficult,
Bridgewater’s footwork is often so seamless that it
appears his adjustments are a natural part of the play.
He’s comfortable throwing from the move to either side
of the field and his release is compact, fast, and
effortless.
Bridgewater can deliver the ball with velocity and
pinpoint accuracy within 25-35 yards or he places the ball
with great touch for a receiver to run under while a
defender is hot on his trail. These skills make
Bridgewater a fantastic match for a west coast offense
that uses him under center.
As strong of a match Bridgewater is for a traditional west
coast offense, he can thrive in an offense that uses more
five-step drops and shotgun looks with or without play
action. The quarterback’s eyes and feet are in excellent
sync and he can act on changes in the pocket.
Bridgewater has a good internal clock and feel for the
location of pressure. Moreover, he disguises his reads
well enough that he’ll look eslewhere on the field before
targeting the area that the blitz left open.
He has enough speed to beat rushers upfield and gain
positive yards. And in addition to his accuracy and touch
on the move, Bridgewater can throw from a variety of
arm slots—over top, three-quarters, and sidearm—and
set up defenders with hard pump fakes.
The greatest criticisim of Bridgewater’s game is his deep
ball. Passes beyond the range of 35 yards lacked velocity
and accuracy. Bridgewater often sailed targets past his
receivers or forced them to wait on the ball and
relinquish the separation they earned from the defense.
Frequently, Bridgewater doesn’t drive through his front
foot during his weight transfer when delivering the ball
on deeper routes. As a result, his throws have more arc
than velocity. Adding velocity and arm strength on
deeper routes is one of the more correctable aspects of
quarterbacking.
His flawed mechanics might stem from the Louisville
offense, which is influenced by the coaching tree of
former Raiders coordinators Mike White and Bill Callhan.
Both coaches ran a brand of the west coast offense that
emphasized short-to-deep progression.
Although this is a growing trend in college football, most
offenses still use deep-to-short progressions.
Bridgewater’s offense limits the amount of time he has to
set his feet to deliver a deep ball. There are quarterbacks
who have found the vertical game more difficult to
execute in this style of offense.
Regardless of the reason, Bridgewater’s lack of accuracy
in the vertical game beyond 40 yards does not remotely
match the rest of his game. Considering how much work
he has put in to become a student of the game, I’m
confident he’ll at least develop a productive deep game
at a range of 40-45 yards.
A comparison of Bridgewater to Joe Montana may seem
like heresy to old-timey football fans, but it is an
accurate stylstic portrait. And if Bill Walsh was alive to
scout Bridgewater, I believe he’d love the quarterback’s
footwork, poise in the pocket, and accuracy.
Match Bridgewater in an offense where the ground game
benefits from the quarterback’s skill on rollouts and short
passes. This will stretch the field from sideline to sideline,
and widen the creases for runs between the tackles as
well as the intermediate passing game inside the hashes.
These activities then force safeties to honor the run
and/or intermediate zone to the point that it opens the
vertical passing game.
At the same time, Bridgewater has the athleticism to play
in an offense like Washington or Philadelphia even if
running the football isn’t what he does best. It’s this
combination of versatility, technical and conceptual
excellence, and underrated grit that puts Bridgewater
atop my board.
Teddy Bridgewater highlights
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

Member
SoSH Member
May 11, 2011
10,391
NH
I'm basically seeing what Waldman is seeing, but I think for Bridgewater it's a little closer than 35 yards where his trouble starts. He is accurate on screens and play action.
 
I re-watched the Florida Highlights and when he was scanning the field he either took off, got sacked, or it was incomplete for the majority. He was great when he could move around and let his target get open or when there were quick plays.
 
Edit: grammar
 

Phragle

wild card bitches
SoSH Member
Jan 1, 2009
13,154
Carmine's closet
SMU_Sox said:
$100 to the Jimmy Fund Bridgewater turns out better than Carr and Garoppolo. This anti-TBW group think keeps feeding itself. Soon TBW is going to be an undrafted FA.
 
We can define details of the bet later. But I've seen too much from Carr and Garoppolo to think they are anything but thoroughly mediocre if that.
 
You're not exactly going out on a limb with a Carr and Garoppolo bet.
 
DanoooME said:
 
Bridgewater is better than those two I think as well.  Hell, I think he's much better than anyone in last year's draft (Geno Smith, I'm looking at you).
 
I don't get the Teddy hate either.  Are people really thinking one mediocre pro day should knock him from a possible #1 overall to the 2nd round?
 
Somebody will smarten up and grab him or someone is going to get a steal in the late first/early second rounds.
 
And the people shitting on these guys about their height?  I read/saw something about Teddy even being small at 6-1.  Didn't anyone learn their lesson about that yet?  Manziel is going to be a star in this league.  Bridgewater should be a solid pro.  Carr and Garoppolo are fads.
 
I'm not a TBW guy, and never have been. I never understood the first overall pick/QB hype, but he'll be ok outside the top-15. I didn't see the pro day, and I don't know what he did wrong there. I think he doesn't have a ton of talent, has small hands and a weak arm, and lacks the fire and passion to work through those issues. He's going to be Ryan Tannehill, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, or Geno Smith, with a chance to be - if he's lucky - Tony Romo.
 
Height does not equal size.
 
SMU_Sox said:
Thank you, Dano. I feel like scouts go for the look and forget that looks alone don't make you a star. Russell Wilson? Stud. Drew Brees? Stud. Oh no, they aren't 8 feet tall!! The horror! I bet they date ugly chicks too.
 
TBW isn't much like Wilson or Brees at all. If you take away the talent, athleticism, passion, and just isolate the body measurements - height, weight, arm length, hand size I'd put TBW behind Brees, Wilson, and even Manziel. He's not tall enough to make up for his hands. 
 
SMU_Sox said:
 
He had a 71.0% completion rate in 2013, 68.5% in 2012. 
 
Of all the qualified passers in 2013 TBW had the 2nd highest completion %. I don't get it, Eck.
 
Completion percentage does not equal accuracy. 
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
phragle said:
 
You're not exactly going out on a limb with a Carr and Garoppolo bet.
 
 
 
Completion percentage does not equal accuracy. 
 
Phragle, I don't think I am but Mayock might take my bet. I know you aren't a TBW guy.
 
Also - while yes, you're right, it's highly correlated. Furthermore unless we are talking deep ball accuracy or how he did on his pro day the guy is generally thought of as an accurate passer. High completion percentage, interceptions dropping every year... He reads the field well, etc.  More links re TBW's accuracy.
 

Infield Infidel

teaching korea american
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
11,463
Meeting Place, Canada
interesting QB write up from Seifert http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/125571/inside-slant-digging-deeper-on-qb-class
 
 
 
Blake Bortles 
Matches narrative: Built like a classic pocket passer at 6-foot-5 and 232 pounds, Bortles proved to be an accurate deep passer. He completed 52.9 percent of passes thrown at least 25 yards in the air, the second-best among all college quarterbacks last season. 
Counters narrative: Despite his build, Bortles was one of the best scramblers in this group. When you separate designed runs from scrambles, you find that Bortles averaged 9.0 yards every time he ran on a called passing play -- the second-highest total in this group. 
Analysis: What jumps out the most about Bortles' season is that there are no obvious dips when comparing his play inside and outside the pocket or when he faced pressure. In fact, his completion percentage of 50.7 when under pressure was the fourth-best among all college quarterbacks last season. 
 
I watched a lot of UCF games last season, and was always surprised by Bortles's movement. Like Luck and Roethlesburger, he's a big guy who can stretch a play if necessary or if he sees an opening for an easy first down running. 
 

axx

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
8,126
That's part of the intrigue of the draft, esp when it comes to QBs. How much of this QB bashing is just a smokescreen? That being said, all of the early round guys have huge bust potential. Can't see the Pats being interested.
 
This does feel like a draft where one of the mid round guys ends up having the best career by far. Remember that Brady does have 3 years left on his deal, so it's not a immediate concern but they will still bring in someone to compete with Mallett. Savage might be the best bet now that it looks like McCarron might go higher than the Pats may like.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
McCarron reportedly told he could go 16 to 35, which seems high. Carr says a full handful of teams have expressed interest in trading back into the 20s to draft him, which seems like a lot not to mention an indiscreet disclosure of draft strategy. Obviously self serving in both cases, but who knows.

It does seem to me very quiet just 3 days before round 1, both with the rookies and guys like Cousins and Mallett.

Deep draft + no obvious standouts = buyer's market?
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
dcmissle said:
Deep draft + no obvious standouts = buyer's market?
There are surprisingly few teams that are desperate to change their QB situation. I'm convinced that barring injury, the Jaguars and Vikings will start someone at QB in Week 1 who isn't currently on their roster. The Browns will make a change too if they can get Manziel, even though Hoyer is a serviceable option. But I could see the other 29 teams starting someone on their current roster, even though I think several of those teams (Houston, Oakland, Tennessee, NYJ, and maybe St. Louis) should not be content with the status quo. I think these dynamics, more so than the deep draft class, are responsible for the buyer's market.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
Word today thru Mort, obviously via Cleve -- Manziel won't make it past 4.

Jurrah trolling?
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
dcmissle said:
Word today thru Mort, obviously via Cleve -- Manziel won't make it past 4.

Jurrah trolling?
I think we're going to come almost full circle -- I predict four QBs taken in the first round, with two going in the first ten picks (maybe even the first 5 -- Bortles at #3 and Manziel at #4 wouldn't shock me).
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
JJ:

"QB is the strength of our team ... Don't need anymore."

If it happens, it will be awesome.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
Random thoughts on Bridgewater and evaluating QBs in general:
 
Physical tools for quarterbacks are overrated. Brees is short and has a weak arm. Rodgers isn't tall, either. Peyton used to have good arm strength but now throws ducks. Brady had one of the worst Combines of a QB in recent memory. What matters is intelligence, accuracy, poise, and pocket presence. Brady is super-slow but very effective at moving within the pocket. Peyton's arm strength is sub-standard but he throws with great anticipation. Brees compensates for his arm strength with terrific reads.
 
However, it's unclear how well intelligence, accuracy, poise, and pocket presence as demonstrated at the college level translates to the NFL. NFL defenses are much more sophisticated, the players are faster, the windows are smaller, the reads are more complex, the pockets are more muddled, etc. Andrew Luck had a reputation for being extremely smart and polished in a pro style offense. In his NFL career to date, however, he's thrown lots of picks and had a sub-standard completion percentage. To my eye, his success has been largely due to his physical tools - his arm talent to make big throws downfield, his athleticism to buy time behind a sub-standard O-line, and his size and toughness to take hits and extend plays as long as possible. If he didn't have those physical tools, how different would Luck be from Andy Dalton, a below-average QB? And since everyone agrees Bridgewater doesn't have those physical tools, is he going to be more like Dalton than Luck?
 
But what about Russell Wilson? Isn't he a guy with some physical limitations (he has a better arm than Bridgewater and is faster, but he's quite a bit shorter)? That's where Bridgewater's potential salvation lies, I think. Wilson has been extremely efficient, but the Seahawks have passed less than any other team in the NFL over the past two seasons. They've also trailed infrequently due to having the best defense in the league. This takes a ton of pressure off Wilson; he doesn't have to make big plays for Seattle to win every week. Luck has been asked to do much more; he has 50% more passing attempts than Wilson (1197 to 800) through their two season in the league. If Luck had Seattle's defense behind him, would he be able to avoid forcing things as much and making typical young player mistakes? If Wilson had Indy's D, would he have to throw it up more and commit more turnovers? I think the answer's yes to both of those questions.
 
The conclusion I come to is that if Bridgewater truly is slipping, that's the best possible outcome for him. Is he going to be successful thrown into the fire right away with garbage supporting casts in Jacksonville or Oakland? I doubt it. But if he slips to the mid- or late- first and ends up on a team where they can ease him in, either playing right away in a decent situation or sitting behind an established guy, that's best for him, IMO. So maybe the skeptics are right (because he would struggle in the wrong situation) but make themselves wrong (because he slips to the right situation).
 

Phragle

wild card bitches
SoSH Member
Jan 1, 2009
13,154
Carmine's closet
phragle said:
I'm not a TBW guy, and never have been. I never understood the first overall pick/QB hype, but he'll be ok outside the top-15. I didn't see the pro day, and I don't know what he did wrong there. I think he doesn't have a ton of talent, has small hands and a weak arm, and lacks the fire and passion to work through those issues. He's going to be Ryan Tannehill, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, or Geno Smith, with a chance to be - if he's lucky - Tony Romo.
 
Height does not equal size.
 
 
TBW isn't much like Wilson or Brees at all. If you take away the talent, athleticism, passion, and just isolate the body measurements - height, weight, arm length, hand size I'd put TBW behind Brees, Wilson, and even Manziel. He's not tall enough to make up for his hands.
 

 
 
Typically, we want quarterbacks who have hands of at least 9.5 inches, but preferably closer to 10 inches. There are of course exceptions to the rule, but the majority of those passers can also beat defenses with their legs. The more mobility a quarterback possesses, the more you can forgive a lack of elite hand size. If a quarterback is a statue in the pocket, he better have some big hands and a history of production in college.
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/47036/311/exploring-qb-hand-size
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
phragle said:
Interesting. FYI, the best bets based on "hand size + mobility" would be:
Logan Thomas - 10 7/8" hands, 4.61 40 - everyone knows he's a physical freak though
Stephen Morris - 10 1/4" hands, 4.63 40 - is he an interesting sleeper?
Johnny Manziel - 9 7/8" hands, 4.68 40
A.J. McCarron, Keith Wenning, and Jeff Mathews all have 10"+ hands, though none of them ran great
 
BTW, if anyone wants a handy chart for Combine #s, your best bet is http://mockdraftable.com/players/2014/
 

Phragle

wild card bitches
SoSH Member
Jan 1, 2009
13,154
Carmine's closet
Super Nomario said:
Interesting. FYI, the best bets based on "hand size + mobility" would be:
Logan Thomas - 10 7/8" hands, 4.61 40 - everyone knows he's a physical freak though
Stephen Morris - 10 1/4" hands, 4.63 40 - is he an interesting sleeper?
Johnny Manziel - 9 7/8" hands, 4.68 40
A.J. McCarron, Keith Wenning, and Jeff Mathews all have 10"+ hands, though none of them ran great
 
BTW, if anyone wants a handy chart for Combine #s, your best bet is http://mockdraftable.com/players/2014/
 
The articles is about height and the importance of hand size. I only brings up mobility as an exception to the rule e.g. Kaepernick, Vick. Although Vick's small hands could partially explain his turnover issues.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
 
Since JG is now a Patriot, anyone want to expand on Waldmans rundown. (for those of us who are too cheap/broke...)
I think I posted it in the main thread, but he rated JG just one spot ahead of McCarron ... but his assessment was much different. He likes Garoppolo's accuracy and arm strength, his quick release, and athleticism, but sees his pocket presence as such an overwhelming negative - he describes it as an aversion to physical contact - that he severely downgraded him. He said if he was wrong on that, he would have Garoppolo as the #4 QB in the class (behind the three first-rounders).
 
I was bummed at first on the Garoppolo pick based on my recollection of how low Waldman had graded JG, but re-reading it afterwards I found it a lot more encouraging. Reading between the lines, Waldman seems to be questioning Garoppolo's toughness, and I don't think Belichick would ever draft a QB if he questioned his toughness, and he's in a better position to judge it than Waldman. That doesn't mean Garoppolo's issues (of which there are some) can or will be fixed, but there's upside if they are (as opposed to McCarron, who in Waldman's assessment isn't particularly good at anything).
 
Want more detail? Buy the RSP!
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

Member
SoSH Member
May 11, 2011
10,391
NH
Super Nomario said:
I think I posted it in the main thread, but he rated JG just one spot ahead of McCarron ... but his assessment was much different. He likes Garoppolo's accuracy and arm strength, his quick release, and athleticism, but sees his pocket presence as such an overwhelming negative - he describes it as an aversion to physical contact - that he severely downgraded him. He said if he was wrong on that, he would have Garoppolo as the #4 QB in the class (behind the three first-rounders).
 
I was bummed at first on the Garoppolo pick based on my recollection of how low Waldman had graded JG, but re-reading it afterwards I found it a lot more encouraging. Reading between the lines, Waldman seems to be questioning Garoppolo's toughness, and I don't think Belichick would ever draft a QB if he questioned his toughness, and he's in a better position to judge it than Waldman. That doesn't mean Garoppolo's issues (of which there are some) can or will be fixed, but there's upside if they are (as opposed to McCarron, who in Waldman's assessment isn't particularly good at anything).
 
Want more detail? Buy the RSP!
 
I actually read the article and just posted it in the main thread. I thought it was pretty rough and as much as it's possible that BB has a better read, Matt did his homework. 
 
(I really should buy his scouting report... He does remarkable work.)
 

Tony C

Moderator
Moderator
SoSH Member
Apr 13, 2000
13,694
SMU_Sox said:
$100 to the Jimmy Fund Bridgewater turns out better than Carr and Garoppolo. This anti-TBW group think keeps feeding itself. Soon TBW is going to be an undrafted FA.
 
We can define details of the bet later. But I've seen too much from Carr and Garoppolo to think they are anything but thoroughly mediocre if that.
 
 
DanoooME said:
Last night on NFLN, they had Mayock's top 5 QBs.
 
1. Manziel
2. Bortles
3. Carr
4. Garoppolo
5t. Mettenberger
5t. Bridgewater
 
And Mayock seems to be in tune with how things generally go.  If Bridgewater slips to #32, I hope Seattle trades out for someone desperate for a QB too.
 
 
dcmissle said:
Could well be. Of course, what this means at this point is anyone's guess. They all could turn out well. Or they could all suck.

Bridgewater's fate turns on much more than one pro day. And his apparent fall is news, as he was hailed here and elsewhere as a once-every-ten-years guy.

If he falls and people want to argue that all 32 teams have their heads up their asses, God bless them.
 
 
Bridgewater was a binky of mine in the draft, have been following him closely this year and this piece summarizes better than I could why it's still a head-scratcher that he fell in the draft:  http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/12075921/why-teddy-bridgewater-deserves-win-offensive-rookie-year-nfl?addata=2009_insdr_mod_nfl_xxx_xxx
 
The psychology of the NFL draft -- i.e., the groupthink that happens -- is something to always keep in mind. Bridgewater was a classic example of this and, yet, it'll repeat itself time and time again. I'd definitely argue that teams had "their heads up their asses" on him, and god bless that he ended up on the Vikings rather than a division rival like the Jets or Bills who could certainly use him big time.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,345
Philadelphia
Tony C said:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Bridgewater was a binky of mine in the draft, have been following him closely this year and this piece summarizes better than I could why it's still a head-scratcher that he fell in the draft:  http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/12075921/why-teddy-bridgewater-deserves-win-offensive-rookie-year-nfl?addata=2009_insdr_mod_nfl_xxx_xxx
 
The psychology of the NFL draft -- i.e., the groupthink that happens -- is something to always keep in mind. Bridgewater was a classic example of this and, yet, it'll repeat itself time and time again. I'd definitely argue that teams had "their heads up their asses" on him, and god bless that he ended up on the Vikings rather than a division rival like the Jets or Bills who could certainly use him big time.
 
Yup, I was a huge TBW fanboy as well last spring.  I don't think I posted much in this thread, mainly because I was lying low and hoping against hope that he would fall to me in the RealFantasy draft (which he did...sweet).  I'd say the jury is still out on him but the early returns looks really good.  I think SuperNomario's post up thread captures some of the issue very well: One of Bridgewater's main drawing cards was his ability to read defenses and his football IQ, but that is a very difficult thing to project at the next level where the complexity and speed of the game both get ratcheted up.  Its unknowable, but I also  don't think one can dismiss the possibility that there was some subconscious racism involved in Bridgewater dropping: He didn't fit the mold of what a black quarterback is "supposed" to bring to the table (ie, athleticism, rather than accuracy and an ability to win at the LoS with his football IQ).
 
Overall, though, his rookie year was quite impressive, especially the stretch run of the last 5-6 weeks.  Its interesting that a lot of his scouting report actually has turned out to be dead on so far.  His deep ball was still awful this year, just like it was in college.  But he's be an absolute killer on middle-range throws: I read somewhere last week that he was the most accurate passer in the NFL on passes 11-30 yards downfield.  That's how you end up with one of the top completion percentages and top YPA among rookie QBs of the last 20 years.  And most of the other guys on those lists (Roethlisberger, RGIII, Wilson) came into far better situations in terms of the surrounding offensive talent, especially in terms of having strong running games and very good OLs that decreased the pressure on the QB to throw a lot and gave them lots of time when they did need to throw it.  You'd like to see more TDs and he has thrown some stupid picks at times, like most rookie QBs, but overall its a pretty impressive body of work for a rookie, especially given how bad the Vikings OL was this year and the lack of weapons in the passing game other than Greg Jennings.  Qualitatively, I've tried to catch a few Vikings games this year and he just seems like a guy for whom the game isn't too fast or complicated: He goes through progressions, moves well inside and outside the pocket with his eyes downfield, and throws daggers when the defense gives him opportunities.  All reports out of Minnesota also paint him as the anti-Manziel: A quiet, professional, football junky that everybody on the team has bought into.
 
I'm not sure that Bridgewater will ever be a Top 5 guy and his smaller frame probably still does raise durability concerns down the line, but he seems like a really good bet to be among the top half of QB starters in the league for a good stretch of his career.  Unless its injury related, I think the chance of him being a bust are very low.  I'd say a career like Dalton is the  floor right now, a career like Drew Brees is the ceiling (although he's unlikely to get there), and a career like Matt Ryan is an optimistic but still fairly reasonable outcome.