Too-early lineup discussion thread

[nattysez]

Farrell went on EEI today and said:
 
 

On who would hit leadoff: “Probably Shane Victorino. And while he’s probably performed a little bit better in that two-hole and sometimes in that five-hole, this is about how we as a team can become a top-five offensive club in the American League. That’s what’s going to allow us to be in a position to be successful.”
On where Bogaerts would hit in the lineup: “Right now I’d have him in the six-hole. And that puts him in between [A.J.] Pierzynski in the seven-hole and [Daniel] Nava in the five-hole. And then just a quick look at it, but if you were to go Victorino, [Dustin] Pedroia, [David] Ortiz, [Mike] Napoli, Nava, Bogaerts, Pierzynski, [Will]Middlebrooks, Bradley. You’ve got a little left-right combination in there, you’ve got maybe just a way to stay away from matchups that might be able to extend to two or three hitters. That’s just the first look.”
On the possibility of hitting Nava first: “There are times, absolutely. There could be Jonny Gomes in the leadoff spot, too. I would not rule him out in that spot. He might not be the classic leadoff guy with a stolen-base characteristic in his skill set, but he’s an on-base guy. Jonny Gomes is going to play a pivotal role for us as well.”
On what happens if they face a premier lefty: “All things being equal, all guys being available and healthy to us, we’re going to always prioritize defense. And you know what, Jackie Bradley’s our best center fielder defensively, as we sit here today. That’s not to say that Shane Victorino couldn’t go in a one-game kind of look, but again, we’d be prioritizing defense in center field.”
 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/02/19/john-farrell-on-dc-red-sox-players-plan-to-stay-hungry-stay-determined/
 
So Farrell's saying the standard lineup will be:
 
Victorino
Pedey
Tizzle
Napoli
Nava (v. righties)/Gomes (v. lefties)
X
AJP
WMB 
JBJ
 
With Gomes/Nava batting first occasionally.
 
I think this lineup is just about ideal as things currently stand, though I'm hoping X is so good with the bat that he winds up hitting third with the rest of the lineup moving down a peg.  
 

 

[jimbobim]

RHP
1) Nava
2) X 
3) Pedroia 
4) Ortiz
5)Napoli
6) Victorino 
7) AJP /Ross 
8) WMB
9) JBJ 
 
Victorino leads off  and  Gomes instead of Nava in the 6th slot against lefties. Keep pedroia and ortiz as 3 and 4 best hitters in run scoring spots and let X be Manny Machado or better with the bat. I'm just really excited to hopefully see him be an absolute stud this year. 

 

[jacklamabe65]

Would it be crazy to ever consider Xander leading off? 
 
Just asking...

 

[Drek717]

I'd really prefer Nava leading off against RHP.  To me the optimal lineup would be:
RHP
1. Nava
2. Pedroia
3. Ortiz
4. Napoli
5. Victorino
6. Bogaerts
7. Pierzynski/Ross
8. Middlebrooks
9. Bradley
 
LHP
1. Victorino
2. Pedroia
3. Ortiz
4. Napoli
5. Gomes
6. Bogaerts
7. Ross/Pierzynski
8. Middlebrooks
9. Bradley
 
I mentioned in the ST thread that I'd find toying with the idea of Bradley/Bogaerts/WMB 6-8 as a second top of the lineup trio interesting, but from a straight production standpoint and alternating LRL when possible I think these are the best lineups to go with day in and day out.
 
A big deciding factor though could be if Victorino keeps facing RHP from the right side of the plate.  His 115 PAs from the right side against RHP last year where massively better than the 229 he took from the left side.  I know it was largely inspired by injury, but you'd think with the wave of success he saw against his traditionally weaker match-up that he'd really consider sticking with it.

 

[Paradigm]

Good heavens that's a strong lineup.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Would it be crazy to ever consider Xander leading off? 
 
Just asking...

Like Nomar in 1997, huh? X even appears to have much better plate discipline than Nomar did. Sounds like Farrell is saying no to that though. I hope Victorino stays healthy and can lead off a lot. Sounds like Farrell goes to Nava and even Gomes for leadoff after Vic.

 

[Drek717]

Good heavens that's a strong lineup.

Yeah, pretty crazy really.
 
If we just look at Oliver and Steamer projections for Bradley (.748/.738 respectively), Bogaerts, (.779/.738), and Middlebrooks (.733/.771) you see even the middle ground offensive expectation for these guys is pretty damn good.  Especially when you consider that Bradley is supposed to be an elite defensive CF, Bogaerts looks to hang at SS, and Middlebrooks is a solid average or better defender at 3B.  Mid-.700 OPS from the three youngest guys on the team at three of the five most important defensive positions is pretty awesome.
 
The only problem is that it's hard not to daydream about what this team might look like if those guys play to the upper end of their potentials.  Bradley as a .275/.360/.420 CF with 10-15 homers and 20-25 doubles.  Middlebrooks as a .265/.325/.470 hitter with 30 HR/30 2B power.  Bogaerts as a .280/.360/.450 guy with 20 HR/25 doubles.  It's exciting to see the raw potential those three have without relying on them to anchor the heart of the lineup.

 

[joe dokes]

Like Nomar in 1997, huh? X even appears to have much better plate discipline than Nomar did. Sounds like Farrell is saying no to that though. I hope Victorino stays healthy and can lead off a lot. Sounds like Farrell goes to Nava and even Gomes for leadoff after Vic.

 
Given his already-developed patience, batting leadoff might be less pressure than a middle of the order spot. OTOH--If he hits 328/366/534 in April like Nomar did he might drive in 30 runs with  the OBPs in front of him.
 
I think there will be a bunch of caterwauling about the lack of SBs if it isn't Victorino, but if whoever hits leadoff gets on at a 150-380 clip, there are going to be a lot of runs scored.

 

[alwyn96]

If he develops power like we are all hoping then the number three or four spot would be more ideal. But if he ends being high batting average high obp then it could work. Anybody have any insight into his speed?

 
Bogaerts' speed is probably around average to maybe a bit above. He's not a basestealer, but he seems like a smart player, and you can a plus baserunner with average speed and good instincts. Pedroia's not that fast, but he gets great reads and swipe some bags and take the odd extra base.
 
Ellsbury was really in another class. Boston may not see a leadoff guy with that kind of speed again for a very long time.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

 
Bogaerts' speed is probably around average to maybe a bit above. He's not a basestealer, but he seems like a smart player, and you can a plus baserunner with average speed and good instincts. Pedroia's not that fast, but he gets great reads and swipe some bags and take the odd extra base.
 
Ellsbury was really in another class. Boston may not see a leadoff guy with that kind of speed again for a very long time.

 
Wanna make a Betts 

 

[Mike F]

Dwight Evans was that guy. Not exceptionally fast but very aggressive and smart. I'd be very happy if JBJ and/or X ran bases as well

 

[ivanvamp]

Should be a top 2-3 offensive team in the AL again, right?  Even if some of the guys suffer some down numbers from last year.  
 
Top 2-3 offense.
 
Strong and deep starting pitching.
 
Even if Koji slips (and how can he not) it's still an excellent, deep, versatile bullpen. 
 
Good management.  Deep resources.  Tons of prospects knocking at the door.  Lots of currency to move if they need to acquire talent.
 
Pretty much, the 2014 Red Sox should be very, very good and the future is nothing but bright.

 

[SaveBooFerriss]

 
Wanna make a Betts 

 
I like the pun, but Betts doesn't have that type of speed.  Margot, however, does.  

 

[jimbobim]

The fact that the Sox have the financial ability and prospect depth to basically address any need during the season is one of the most comforting facts as the season approaches.
 
The lineup could be enhanced to arguably best in MLB level if they could get a healthy Stanton or Kemp in the outfield.  

 

[Rasputin]

The lineup could be enhanced to arguably best in MLB level if they could get a healthy Stanton or Kemp in the outfield.  

The lineup could be the best without making any acquisitions at all.

Everyone stays mostly healthy, Bradley and Bogaerts adjust quickly, and Middlebrooks doesn't suck.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

 
I like the pun, but Betts doesn't have that type of speed.  Margot, however, does.  

 
For some reason, that comment brought Wade Boggs to mind.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Good heavens that's a strong lineup.

 
But remember, "All things being equal, all guys being available and healthy to us, we’re going to always prioritize defense."

 

[seantoo]

`
 

If he develops power like we are all hoping then the number three or four spot would be more ideal. But if he ends being high batting average high obp then it could work. Anybody have any insight into his speed?

I've seen XB leg out a double at a AA game last year and was surprised that scouts noted his speed as just above average because it was beyond that. He's fairly fast, at least he is when he needs to be.