Tompa Bay: Tom Tom Club

tims4wins

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Warren Moon did it too. But with far fewer TDs. Because he didn’t debut until he was 28.

The Brady thing is amazing because he is so incredible at 44. But in terms of volume he only played 6 full seasons in his 20s and he’s now in his 5th season in his 40s in a totally different league. That in and of itself is nutty, but he started 94 regular season games in his 20s, he’s now at 66 in his 40s. It’s jarring but not quite as jarring. He turned 2007 right before the statistical jump in 2007.
 

Ralphwiggum

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Yeah but even given the change in the NFL from then until now, you’d still expect six full seasons in his 20’s to far exceed the five in his forties.
 

Preacher

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Yeah but even given the change in the NFL from then until now, you’d still expect six full seasons in his 20’s to far exceed the five in his forties.
He’s in his 5th. It’s really 4 seasons and 2 games. So say he continues at roughly his current pace he should have more TDs in his 40s in 4.5 seasons compared to 6 in his 20s. That just seems crazy to me. If he beats the number of TDs he threw in his 30s in his 40s, I think he’ll play until 60.
 

johnmd20

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Warren Moon did it too. But with far fewer TDs. Because he didn’t debut until he was 28.

The Brady thing is amazing because he is so incredible at 44. But in terms of volume he only played 6 full seasons in his 20s and he’s now in his 5th season in his 40s in a totally different league. That in and of itself is nutty, but he started 94 regular season games in his 20s, he’s now at 66 in his 40s. It’s jarring but not quite as jarring. He turned 2007 right before the statistical jump in 2007.
The numbers you cite are not proving what you're trying to say.

Tom Brady, in his 40s, will have thrown more TD passes in 70 games than he did in 94 games when he was in his 20s. So at an age where only maybe 2 guys have had even a little success in history of the NFL, Tom Brady is beating himself in 28% less games, despite being 20 years older.
 

tims4wins

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The numbers you cite are not proving what you're trying to say.

Tom Brady, in his 40s, will have thrown more TD passes in 70 games than he did in 94 games when he was in his 20s. So at an age where only maybe 2 guys have had even a little success in history of the NFL, Tom Brady is beating himself in 28% less games, despite being 20 years older.
No I get it, but for instance, he led the league with 28 TDs in 2002. 10 guys threw more than 28 TDs last year. There were 871 passing TDs last year vs. 694 in 2002 with the same number of teams and games. So passing TDs are up roughly 25.5% from 2002 to 2020. So the 28% fewer games is more or less right in line with what the entire league is doing.
 

johnmd20

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No I get it, but for instance, he led the league with 28 TDs in 2002. 10 guys threw more than 28 TDs last year. There were 871 passing TDs last year vs. 694 in 2002 with the same number of teams and games. So passing TDs are up roughly 25.5% from 2002 to 2020. So the 28% fewer games is more or less right in line with what the entire league is doing.
It's the age of Brady that makes this stat insane. He had a hall of fame career, or at least close, in his 20s. He's crushing those numbers in his 40s. It is the unprecedented nature of him doing this at his age.
 

Ralphwiggum

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But implicit in your analysis there is that a guy age 40 - 44 and a guy age 22-28 should be expected to perform the same. That's the insane thing about the stat. We all get that QBs throw way more TDs now than they did then, but Brady's contemporaries who could all be taking advantage of this are all retired.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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In regards to TB's defense, Twitter rumors kicking around yesterday had them perhaps talking to Richard Sherman about joining them, although Sherm's current uncertain status after his legal troubles might make his arrival unlikely.
 

Ralphwiggum

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Here's another crazy stat: Brady is first in TDs in his 40s at 154. Brees is 2nd (57), then Warren Moon (37) then Vinny T (24). So if Brady throws six more TDs he'll have more in his 40s than all of those guys combined. Or 16 more if you want to add in Flutie.
 

johnmd20

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Here's another crazy stat: Brady is first in TDs in his 40s at 154. Brees is 2nd (57), then Warren Moon (37) then Vinny T (24). So if Brady throws six more TDs he'll have more in his 40s than all of those guys combined. Or 16 more if you want to add in Flutie.
The math doesn't check out here. You have Brady at 154 and B, M, and T are at 118. He's already way ahead of them according to those numbers.
 

loshjott

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Maybe he forgot Favre who threw ~35-40 TDs in his 40s. He turned 40 on Oct 10, 2009 and threw 44 TDs in 2009-10. (I didn't check the game by game stats to get an exact # in his 40s).
 

tims4wins

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It's the age of Brady that makes this stat insane. He had a hall of fame career, or at least close, in his 20s. He's crushing those numbers in his 40s. It is the unprecedented nature of him doing this at his age.
But implicit in your analysis there is that a guy age 40 - 44 and a guy age 22-28 should be expected to perform the same. That's the insane thing about the stat. We all get that QBs throw way more TDs now than they did then, but Brady's contemporaries who could all be taking advantage of this are all retired.
Again I get it, it's ridiculous that he is performing at the same level in his 40s as he was in his 20s. I was just pointing out that when you factor in the number of seasons/games played and the league rate of TDs in his 20s vs 40s, it makes a tiny bit more sense.
 

johnmd20

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Again I get it, it's ridiculous that he is performing at the same level in his 40s as he was in his 20s. I was just pointing out that when you factor in the number of seasons/games played and the league rate of TDs in his 20s vs 40s, it makes a tiny bit more sense.
I just don't agree.

It makes no sense if you look at the history of the QB position and how players have performed in their mid 40s. Which is to say, they have never performed at this age. Ever. Tom Brady is winning Super Bowls at 43. Warren Moon's last decent year was his age 42 season. He had a 76.6 rating and 1600 yards passing. So basically a moderately competent backup. Moon played until 44 but in his age 43 season, he had 3 attempts. Age 44, he had 34. So those barely count.

Brady, in his age 43 season, was 2nd in the league in touchdowns. So even if you account for the increased numbers, he's still at the top.

There is no precedent.
 

tims4wins

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I just don't agree.

It makes no sense if you look at the history of the QB position and how players have performed in their mid 40s. Which is to say, they have never performed at this age. Ever. Tom Brady is winning Super Bowls at 43. Warren Moon's last decent year was his age 42 season. He had a 76.6 rating and 1600 yards passing. So basically a moderately competent backup. Moon played until 44 but in his age 43 season, he had 3 attempts. Age 44, he had 34. So those barely count.

Brady, in his age 43 season, was 2nd in the league in touchdowns. So even if you account for the increased numbers, he's still at the top.

There is no precedent.
Agreed. It’s unprecedented. I’m not trying to diminish it at all. What he is doing is insane. Just trying to shed some light on the underlying numbers. He played fewer games in his 20s than a lot of guys since he didn’t play his rookie year and was a 5th year senior. Given the number of games played and the change in the league, it becomes understandable in term of purely opportunity. But maintaining this level of play into his 40s is obviously something we’ve never seen before remotely close to this level.
 

DourDoerr

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To anyone but the biggest of dunderheads, Tom Brady is the greatest football player of all time. The question now is: Where does he rank among the greatest team sport athletes of all time?

The short list of possibilities, IMO:

Babe Ruth
Michael Jordan
Wayne Gretzky
Bill Russell
LeBron James
Tom Brady

That to me is the short list. Combining individual performance with team achievements, these guys have it all - tons of awards, dominant stats, and lots of championship hardware. I'm sure I'm missing the greatest soccer player ever though I don't know who that would be.
Yogi Berra - 10 championships, 3 MVP's, 18 All-Star games
 

Kliq

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It's difficult enough comparing Brady to players in other eras that played the sam position as him. It's even harder to compare him to say, Jerry Rice or Jim Brown or Lawrence Taylor.

It's a pointless exercise to compare Brady to athletes playing other sports.
 

luckiestman

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To anyone but the biggest of dunderheads, Tom Brady is the greatest football player of all time. The question now is: Where does he rank among the greatest team sport athletes of all time?

The short list of possibilities, IMO:

Babe Ruth
Michael Jordan
Wayne Gretzky
Bill Russell
LeBron James
Tom Brady

That to me is the short list. Combining individual performance with team achievements, these guys have it all - tons of awards, dominant stats, and lots of championship hardware. I'm sure I'm missing the greatest soccer player ever though I don't know who that would be.

3 basketball players seems ridiculous. If it is the 4 Majors I would narrow it down to these 4

Gretzky
Jordan
Brady
Bonds

I think it is tough to compare.
 

BaseballJones

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Definitely tough to compare. I just wanted to give Russell and LeBron their due, but I also think Jordan is the GOAT in hoops. And Ruth in baseball. So to me:

Brady, Gretzky, Jordan, Ruth

That's the team sports Mount Rushmore.
 

Al Zarilla

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Definitely tough to compare. I just wanted to give Russell and LeBron their due, but I also think Jordan is the GOAT in hoops. And Ruth in baseball. So to me:

Brady, Gretzky, Jordan, Ruth

That's the team sports Mount Rushmore.
I like that. Being a complete Boston sports junkie, it was nice when Russell and/or Orr might have been on there. But now we have Brady, I'm sure for the rest of my lifetime.

As for Bonds, for crissakes, his head was twice as big when he put up the absurd OBP, OPS and home run numbers as when he played for the Pirates. Is that an indicator of something?
 

snowmanny

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Definitely tough to compare. I just wanted to give Russell and LeBron their due, but I also think Jordan is the GOAT in hoops. And Ruth in baseball. So to me:

Brady, Gretzky, Jordan, Ruth

That's the team sports Mount Rushmore.
Well there once was an SI with Russell on the cover that read “the greatest team player in the history of team sports.” I wouldn’t call Jordan that. I might call Brady that.

edit: I almost had it right

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E5 Yaz

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It's the one-touchdown receivers with the Patriots that always get me. Had to look up Mulligan
 
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Ralphwiggum

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So he’s had a career throwing to maybe the best TE in NFL history, two excellent slot receivers, the back end of a HOF receiver, and his current crew which is stacked. But otherwise a pretty pedestrian crew.

Not sure what this chart would look like for Brees or Manning but this is pretty impressive.

Also Vrabel being that high is pretty crazy.
 

kelpapa

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So he’s had a career throwing to maybe the best TE in NFL history, two excellent slot receivers, the back end of a HOF receiver, and his current crew which is stacked. But otherwise a pretty pedestrian crew.

Not sure what this chart would look like for Brees or Manning but this is pretty impressive.

Also Vrabel being that high is pretty crazy.
Vrabel had ten receiving touchdowns in his career but two of them were in Kansas city. So he had eight in new England. I assume all of those are from Brady.
 

Mystic Merlin

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So he’s had a career throwing to maybe the best TE in NFL history, two excellent slot receivers, the back end of a HOF receiver, and his current crew which is stacked. But otherwise a pretty pedestrian crew.

Not sure what this chart would look like for Brees or Manning but this is pretty impressive.

Also Vrabel being that high is pretty crazy.
I think the relative quality of Peyton and Brees’ targets has been traditionally overstated, largely, IMO, because of how many high end receivers Peyton had in his Colts tenure, especially the first 9-10 years (first 6 for Brady’s career) when folks talked about how pedestrian the Pats receivers were by comparison.

Who were the best receivers Brees had? Cooks, Colston, Thomas, Stills? Tom’s supporting cast holds up fine.
 

Ralphwiggum

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I think the relative quality of Peyton and Brees’ targets has been traditionally overstated, largely, IMO, because of how many high end receivers Peyton had in his Colts tenure, especially the first 9-10 years (first 6 for Brady’s career) when folks talked about how pedestrian the Pats receivers were by comparison.

Who were the best receivers Brees had? Cooks, Colston, Thomas, Stills? Tom’s supporting cast holds up fine.
I was more just asking the question. It would be interesting to see similar graphics for Brees and Manning. For Manning I’d expect things to be more clustered towards a few guys. Brees maybe not as you point out.
 

Mystic Merlin

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I was more just asking the question. It would be interesting to see similar graphics for Brees and Manning. For Manning I’d expect things to be more clustered towards a few guys. Brees maybe not as you point out.
Yeah, wasn’t reacting to your framing, but it brought to mind the age-old narrative out there about Tom’s supporting cast in NE. Manning having two HOF caliber receivers on the field at the same time and at the height of their powers really jumps out. That’s certainly not common.

Thomas, Sanders, and Clark jump out as other high end players he threw to. Guys like Pollard, Stokley, Decker, and Garçon are, IMO, good but not materially better than many of the players on Tom’s list.

The more you comb through supporting casts for too QB, the more it jumps out at you that there really aren’t many great receivers in the league over a prolonged period and how many great QB had only a handful of them over the years. Rodgers? Jennings, Nelson, Adams (late career Driver maybe as well).
 

rodderick

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I was listening to Brady's podcast with Jim Gray and he played Tom the clip of Belichick talking about how if there's anyone that could play into his 50's it's probably Tom and Brady's reaction surprised me. He kinda gave an incredulous laugh and said something sarcastic to the tune of "always good to count on the encouragement of coach Belichick". Less diplomatic than I would expect. Couldn't read it in any way other than "huh, so now you think I can play at this age? Funny how that works". I'm a little surprised this hasn't gotten more play, sounds like perfect fodder for Boston radio.
 

Mystic Merlin

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I was listening to Brady's podcast with Jim Gray and he played Tom the clip of Belichick talking about how if there's anyone that could play into his 50's it's probably Tom and Brady's reaction surprised me. He kinda gave an incredulous laugh and said something sarcastic to the tune of "always good to count on the encouragement of coach Belichick". Less diplomatic than I would expect. Couldn't read it in any way other than "huh, so now you think I can play at this age? Funny how that works".
Hey, at least this time he said it himself without relying on a mouthpiece while he tries to play the awshucks good cop; his typical MO is to have his dad do it or have Gray bury a grievance into a question.

On that note, Bedard speculated on his weekly radio spot that Tom Sr. popped out of the woodwork this week to talk to Curran to start priming the PR machine the pending Wickersham 500 page Patriots book, due out 10/12. That’ll be a must-read, regardless of what you think of Wickersham’s past work.
 

rodderick

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Hey, at least this time he said it himself without relying on a mouthpiece while he tries to play the awshucks good cop; his typical MO is to have his dad do it or have Gray bury a grievance into a question.

On that note, Bedard speculated on his weekly radio spot that Tom Sr. popped out of the woodwork this week to talk to Curran to start priming the PR machine the pending Wickersham 500 page Patriots book, due out 10/12. That’ll be a must-read, regardless of what you think of Wickersham’s past work.
If Wickersham's past reporting on this is any indication, I think Bill will probably get the short end of the stick there.
 

Mystic Merlin

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If Wickersham's past reporting on this is any indication, I think Bill will probably get the short end of the stick there.
From what I’ve gleaned from reading comments from Wickersham and the journalists who have read the book (eg, Breer), I’m not sure it takes sides. My impression is Wickersham wants this to be his above the fray, definitive chronicle of the Pats dynasty; this isn’t merely a long form article. Breer was pretty circumspect (long pause and then noncommittal remarks) when Zolak asked him a few weeks ago about whether Brady will like the book. He did say that the book slams Belichick for Spygate but that it’s otherwise pretty fair to him.

I am sure the book is longer than it needs to be - Wickersham has never seen a thousand words he couldn’t make into five thousand - but I’ll read it.
 

Caspir

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Multiple guys on that list are deceased. That's how long Brady has played.
I mean, they're dying in motorcycle crashes and prison suicides, not old age. I don't see how it ties into Brady's longevity at all.