Thanks for the reminder, apologies—hadn’t remembered it wasn’t appropriate (and after rebuking Tom for not thinking
)
I believe Brady owns Autograph, which is the company that provides the platform for Draft Kings' NFTs, which seem to be doing ok.
As one of the biggest Tom Brady fans you will ever meet, I do follow him very closely. And you can say a lot of things about Tom Brady, but "has received little fanfare" is not one of them. The last 8 months have been all fanfare, all respect, and all joy. You can't listen to a NFL podcast without Tom Brady being spoken about in hushed tones of awe.
Holy crap… it wasn’t until I read this that I realized he’s been playing in the league for half of my life.
Yes totally fair. What I meant was because Brees and Brady were going back and forth with the TD record there wasn't really much pomp and circumstance associated with it, which is understandable. Of course in the grand scheme of things Brady is not wanting for fanfare.
I agree that the extra game won't be a huge component of any career records, the bigger reason why all of Brady's personal records will fall is the different passing environment. In his second full season at age 25, Brady lead the league in TD passes with 28. This past year, 28 would have been good for just 11th. Mahomes had 38 TD passes last year (coincidentally, also his age 25 season), just 4th. League-wide there were 694 TD passes back in 2002, compared with 871 last year. That's a full 25% increase - all of the passing records will fall in the coming years, it's just a question of when and who.
I can't wait for Peyton and Brees fans to say that Brady's statistical career should have an asterisk because he played during 17-game seasons.
Is this like one of those situations where you're mad about people being mad about something, but, in reality, those people being mad don't exist?
Mahomes needs to average 31 TD passes a year from now until he's 40 to catch Brady, and that's assuming Brady never throws another one. If Brady has a good year this year and an average year next year and then hangs them up with, say, 620 TDs, that is going to be a tough number for anyone to get to. It's theoretically do-able but far from a sure thing. Brady also doesn't get enough credit for his durability. He's never missed a game due to injury outside of the season he lost to an ACL, including as he is playing into his mid-40s. I think the game has to evolve to the point where the game favors the offense such that someone could do it in 15 full seasons of excellence to make it happen. So that's a 41 TD a season pace to get to that number.
I agree with you. It's easy to look at Mahomes at 25 and think he's going to be the same player at 35. But a long time in the NFL breaks most players. It is, in fact, a very violent game. It will not be that easy to catch Brady in TDs and I don't think he'll be caught in yards.
Very true, although he's averaged 38 TDs per season as a starter, so to get to 620 he'd need to keep up this pace for another 13-14 years. If it's not him it will be someone else, and while Brady may be unique in that he's playing at a pro-bowl level in his mid-40s, there will be plenty of other guys who play at a pro-bowl level into their late 30s (and who've spent their entire career playing 17 games per year, in the passing era).
I'm a huge Brady fan but I think that some of the QB's of the 70's through 90's could have had a chance to play a lot longer with today's QB protection rules, as well as bigger numbers with the rules limiting the defensive backs as well.
This is obviously true in that we've seen several QBs play well into their mid to late 30s who are Brady's contemporaries whereas Favre was an anomaly among his peers. Nonetheless none of them (yet) have played into their 40s, though, which is probably what it is going to take.
Mahomes on a rookie contract was absolutely the best deal in sports. That is going away, it will be much harder for KC when he's taking up a lot more of the cap.
The post season numbers are stupid, and of course they all stem from the fact that he's started 45 games, which if you think about is just absurd. Manning is 2nd in QB starts at 27, which is a completely respectable number and at the same time not in the same galaxy as Brady's number.
Completely agree with these takes. Russell Wilson also thought he was going to win 6 titles. He hasn't even played in a conference championship game since he had that thought.
*This* is where the "Brady needed Belichick, too" angle comes in. While he *did* have Brady, BB also built really good teams around him for most of his career, turning the roster over multiple times. Is Mahomes going to get that from Reid (a damn good coach and personnel guy, IMO) who is already 63?
This is the thing about Brady and BB that makes everything they did so special...BB is the reason Brady has 6 rings and that is not saying Brady does not deserve all the allocates he gets, but BB was able to always turn over the roster and put a team around Brady that could give them a shot at the crown every year.
This is a really terrific point. Mahomes's chances of catching any of Brady's postseason marks will depend in no small part on who eventually replaces Reid.
And stay healthy. Mahomes looked pretty dinged up last year and I literally can’t remember a single season like that from Brady.
Nice Update. I had a thread tracking this that I started just before the 2018 season! https://www.sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/drew-vs-tom-vs-time.24633/ It looks pretty clear what the results are going to be now though a question of how long they'll continue to rise.
I am going to go out on a limb and say that Mahomes has no chance catching Brady in the postseason categories. It is 0%.
Yep, which is why I didn't bother mentioning regular season stats. They overlap, but if he stays upright the bulk of Mahomes career will be played in a different generation under more favorable rules regarding passing
Agreed. Plus, some of these guys might not want to play football into their 40s. Mahomes could wake up in March 2032 and decide to move on, even if he’s physically capable of playing.
Like I said, to do what Brady has done, you have to be great, lucky, and a psycho. That psycho part. . . .is rare.
The other crazy thing about the post season numbers is that he has had something like 12-13 first round byes. If he had played those games his numbers would be even more absurd.
Wilson is a good example, the first that always comes to mind for me is Roethlisberger. He's a level below Brady (and Mahomes) for sure, but he's a 6x pro-bowler with a well run franchise who had 2 SBs and went to a third in 2010, his age 28 season. He was five years younger than Brady and one game away from tying him in SB wins...and since that Super Bowl, not only has he not gotten back to the Super Bowl, he's won just 3 playoff games total in the last 10 years. Rodgers has won 3 MVPs in the last decade, but hasn't been back to the Super Bowl.
Same here. I remember I was bussing tables at Bennigan's during his first Superbowl. Looney Tunes.
The other question I have is what happens when Tyreke Hill and Kelce decline. Brady never relied on the level of skill players to the degree Mahomes does. They did have Gronk for the second half of the run, but he didn't even play in the 2016 playoffs, and in 2018 he wasn't GRONK.
I think this is a pretty huge factor. Hill and Kelce is literally one of the best 1-2s in recent NFL history in terms of pass catching weapons. But Kelce is about to turn 32 and while Hill is only 27, his skill set may not age that well and he is UDFA after 2022. So there is a good chance that we'll only see maybe 1-2 more years of Hill and Kelce playing for KC at the level they've been doing it for the last three seasons. With draft picks and salary cap space you can find other good pass catchers, but these guys are both elite talents and you can't automatically replace elite talent. Its not like Mahomes is so amazing that he has turned guys like Mecole Hardman and Sammy Watkins into stars. Watkins was actually a more productive player before coming to KC. When Hardman was drafted, everybody said "There's your Tyreek Hill successor" but he is nowhere close.
