Tommy John for Severino

steveluck7

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Silver lining is that they're taking care of it now instead of trying therapy and other half measures and then ultimately deciding sometime in June to do the TJS. At least now he'll only miss this season instead of this and next season
 

crow216

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Extremely disappointed. I don't know that there's actually a silver lining here. Paxton is semi-injury prone. This is a huge blow to the front of the rotation.
 

curly2

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I hate to see anyone get hurt, even Yankees. This sucks.

The silver lining for Yankees fans is that the Astros and Red Sox have gone backwards, and they should still have a good chance to beat the Rays to win the division.

They presumably would get to the playoffs with a rotation of Cole, Tanaka, Paxton, German and Happ and a terrific pen. Plus there's a chance to with the chance of one of the young guys Jon alluded to stepping up or a midseason acquisition providing a boost if needed.

In my eyes this news still leaves them as the favorites in the AL, as opposed to the overwhelming favorites they were before.
 

jon abbey

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They won 103 games last year pretty much without Severino and without Cole, I'm not worried about the team or the rotation depth, but this is terrible for him, second straight wasted season in his prime.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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They're probably one of the few teams that can weather a hit to one of their projected top starters without missing a beat... this takes them from what.... a 99.9% lock to win the AL East to a 99% lock?

EDIT- but yeah... clearly should have been done a long time ago. He's likely not expected to return fully healthy until mid season 2021 I'd guess.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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Did they ever explain why if he's had discomfort since the postseason in October that they waited so long? Not that it would matter for 2020, but it may have helped for 2021.
 

jon abbey

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Did they ever explain why if he's had discomfort since the postseason in October that they waited so long? Not that it would matter for 2020, but it may have helped for 2021.
He had tons of tests, this didn't show up until today.
 

jon abbey

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"The Yankees had Luis Severino (right forearm) travel to New York twice during the offseason - first for an MRI, then for an MRI and CT scan. Both tests were clean."
 

jon abbey

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clearly should have been done a long time ago.
I know everyone is a doctor on the internet, but you don't operate if you don't see anything wrong.

"The Yankees had Luis Severino (right forearm) travel to New York twice during the offseason - first for an MRI, then for an MRI and CT scan. Both tests were clean."
 

bsj

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I'm out of the loop on this but is this a sure thing done for the year thing or is there a chance for a late season/post season return?
 

jon abbey

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I'm out of the loop on this but is this a sure thing done for the year thing or is there a chance for a late season/post season return?
Out until early next season at the earliest, maybe more like June 2021.
 

YTF

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They're probably one of the few teams that can weather a hit to one of their projected top starters without missing a beat... this takes them from what.... a 99.9% lock to win the AL East to a 99% lock?

EDIT- but yeah... clearly should have been done a long time ago. He's likely not expected to return fully healthy until mid season 2021 I'd guess.
I'm not sure about not missing a beat. In addition to losing Severino for the season, Domingo German is missing the first 63 games of the season and James Paxton is out anywhere from 1-3 months. Those are three huge holes to plug in the rotation. The offense should still be dominant and the bullpen is deep, but you're now looking at a rotation of Cole, Tanaka, Happ, Montgomery (back from Tommy John) and then perhaps Cessa or Loaisiga.
 

donutogre

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Wow, I don't think I quite realized he only made three starts last year (plus two in the postseason). Missing essentially two full seasons plus likely part of a third when you're right in your prime is a real tough blow. That's a lot of time off the field. As someone else said, you never want to see a guy get injured like this, even if it's the Yankees. Hopefully he can return to something close to what he was before come 2021.
 

jon abbey

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He was a top 3 pitcher in the AL for a solid season and a half (3rd in the Cy Young in 2017 and awesome for the first half of 2018 too) at a very young age, very sad what has happened since then.
 

jon abbey

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I'm not sure about not missing a beat. In addition to losing Severino for the season, Domingo German is missing the first 63 games of the season and James Paxton is out anywhere from 1-3 months. Those are three huge holes to plug in the rotation. The offense should still be dominant and the bullpen is deep, but you're now looking at a rotation of Cole, Tanaka, Happ, Montgomery (back from Tommy John) and then perhaps Cessa or Loaisiga.
Montgomery is already hitting 94, which he almost never did pre-surgery, so that is promising. He will be the 4th guy, I think Cessa/Loaisiga are still long guys and the 5th guy will be King or Bettis with a lot of bullpen behind them. Paxton is recovering quickly and should be back in May sometime. NY has a ton of pitching depth, they played last year without Cole and Severino and Montgomery and King.
 

Wingack

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The major problem is that it really takes two full years to return to full strength from TJ. Durability and command are major issues for returning pitchers after a year and a half.
 

terrynever

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Cashman got lucky with Tanaka a few years back. Maybe he thought Severino was as clever a pitcher as Tanaka, who dropped max effort fastballs and used the rest of his tools instead.
 

SemperFidelisSox

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You don’t need starting pitching in the regular season, especially when you’re averaging 5 runs a game with a dominant bullpen. As long as Cole, Tanaka and Paxton are healthy October 1st, NY will be fine.
 

jon abbey

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The major problem is that it really takes two full years to return to full strength from TJ. Durability and command are major issues for returning pitchers after a year and a half.
If this is referring to Montgomery, I think it will be two full years in May.
 

jon abbey

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Ah, can’t worry about that yet. It might mean that they bring back Tanaka or Paxton next winter instead of letting both go, though.
 

Manramsclan

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I am curious to see what this does for Yankee win projections. Before the injury fangraphs had them at 103 93 wins.

Edit: I misread the table
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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93 wins for the Yankees is absurd. They're winning 100 or more games despite the SP injuries.
Hopefully not, but I would tend to agree.

Shame about Severino though - I enjoy seeing the Yankees fail, but it is far more enjoyable when they are at full strength and do so.
 

TheDivision

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93 wins for the Yankees is absurd. They're winning 100 or more games despite the SP injuries.
I couldn't agree more, and I'm not sure if I'm looking at the correct information but on Fangraphs it has it 100 wins, and it states:

Let’s get to some meat and potatoes! The assumptions used to make the depth charts is updated through the very worrisome Luis Severino injury news, so the Yankee projections already reflect this risk.
Edit: The fangraphs link is confusing because it was posted Feb. 21, but there is mention of Severino's injury.

 
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Manramsclan

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I was looking here.

They are on fangraphs but are not Zips projections. 100 wins sounds more like it to me too.

That said, as long as projection systems scale well with the teams around them, I don't really bat an eye.

Also, yet another third projection which is linked in the article you posted has them at 95.3 wins
 

Manramsclan

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Edit: The fangraphs link is confusing because it was posted Feb. 21, but there is mention of Severino's injury.

I wonder if this reflects the report of elbow soreness and not the TJ surgery. There are multiple posts about his elbow soreness dated 2/21/20.

I guess the question remains unanswered as to how it impacts the projected win total. I think the Yankees are a runaway division winner even with the loss of Severino, I just wondered how an injury like this would effect projection systems.
 

TheDivision

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I was looking here.

They are on fangraphs but are not Zips projections. 100 wins sounds more like it to me too.

That said, as long as projection systems scale well with the teams around them, I don't really bat an eye.

Also, yet another third projection which is linked in the article you posted has them at 95.3 wins
They probably don’t value the SP replacements early in the season especially Montgomery and a minor leaguer, and probably not as high on Gio, DJ, Tauchman, Gardner and Voit relative to last season. But, I think they'll win more than 95.3 wins.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, you can drop a couple of wins from those projections with today's news, but I think the systems are also underestimating a lot of the depth guys, as they did last year.