Judging by the two overtime games, Udoka thinks the best closing lineup is: Tatum, Brown, R Williams, Smart and Schröder. Having Schröder on the court seems to help keep Smart from hogging the ball.
Timelord Injury Watch
- Thread starter bsj
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It's not about hogging the ball--it's about having a point guard. Smart is small Iguodala, and that's how he should be used (and marketed, in a trade context).
BTW, sample sizes are small but regarding the 2-big lineup:
The top priority, then, should be staggering them to avoid having to have too many minutes with neither on the floor. Starting them only makes sense if it doesn’t lead to too many minutes of Grant/Kanter/Jabari at C.
- It has a positive net rating.
- Horford has a better net rating than Williams, but it is lower with Williams than without him. Williams, by contrast, has a better net rating with Horford than without him.
- This is from pro-basketball reference which doesn’t remove garbage minutes, but I don’t think either player has played garbage minutes, so not a big deal.
- Williams best two individual games have come when Horford has sat.
- The Celtics have seemed to be much better when at least one of them has been in the game than when neither of them have been in. Maybe the lone exception to that was yesterday’s Jabari minutes
- When healthy, the Celtics have better wing depth than big depth, particularly since there doesn’t seem to be much interest in carving out a role for Kanter
The top priority, then, should be staggering them to avoid having to have too many minutes with neither on the floor. Starting them only makes sense if it doesn’t lead to too many minutes of Grant/Kanter/Jabari at C.
They've been pretty good about quickly pulling Horford for Grant after starting, so that seems fine. Bigger concern is if either Al or TL misses significant time.
Agree with your main point: avoid not having TL or Horford on the floor at ALL times.
1. The best way to do that is to keep them healthy, alternate their play, keep their minutes to under 28mpg.
2. The next best way is to play them together for 8mpg and then stagger.
After the Smurf fail, looks like Ime has chosen option #2. I hope he eventually gets to #1 as the season grinds along.
Briefly against Toronto. I thought he might get some run last night since Charlotte is kind of thin up front, but Jabari saw the floor as a small 5 first. Which ended up being the right choice, I think. Charlotte's athleticism would have given Kanter fits.
Right but you'd think he'd have more of an opportunity to play elsewhere. Maybe he just really liked it here.
He put up 11/11 last year in 24 mpg.
Yeah he seems to like it here. Would not be surprised if that was a stronger factor than it us for some guys.
Horford has missed 2 games and Williams is averaging 34+ mpg, which is not ideal considering his injury history and the fact that he had never played more than 32 minutes in a single game before this year. If this isn't the situation to play him in, I have to ask what the point is for him to be here at all - playing TL this many minutes is just asking him to break down (will Kanter play if both of these guys are out?). For me, Kanter's absence is the single biggest question of this [very young] season for the Celtics so far.
Or we were all wrong about TL and they feel comfortable with him playing 30+ minutes a game.
Bigger media platform to launch true career calling as international human rights activist.
Maybe. He probably didn't take less money to be here, but he definitely sacrificed playing time. Or maybe he's just hoping on Al or TL to miss some time. Of course, Al has already missed time and Kanter still hasn't played. Maybe Kanter is someone Stevens liked but Ime doesn't care for. Seems like Jabari may have even leap frogged him, and Juancho has gotten more burn as well. Granted both of those players are more versatile and not strictly limited to the 5.
There's a lot of depth at C after TL and AL, even if it's not that great. I think we assumed Kanter would get those minutes because he can POINTZ and rebound. He doesn't really play D though so going with Grant or Jabari instead of Kanter isn't going to much matter on that end. Or even Juancho, who I think is terrible. I was high on him 4 years ago but he hasn't really improved.
My big order would be TL, AL, Grant, Jabari/Kanter, Juancho, Bruno. Note that all the bench bigs besides Kanter can get minutes outside the 5.
I'm not a Grant fan, but he's an easy pick at 3. Him playing 20 minutes a night is fine as long as Semi isn't playing 15-20 minutes a night too. He appears to be around an average 3 point shooter and he's been using his passing skills more this year. Draymond Green he is not, but he's not a blackhole. He also has 2 dunks this year in 4 games. Last year he had 8 in 63. His rookie year, 5 in 69. Part of the reason I hate Grant so much is because of the Draymond Green comparisons after a pretty mediocre rookie year (other people think he had a good rookie year). I'd say he's more of a modern day Oliver Miller without the rim protection. And not just because of the weight issues. It's not a perfect comparison but Miller was a BBIQ guy who could pass a bit and used his body to his advantage. How well he played would also depend largely on his weight. It's 4 games in but I think Grant is going to emerge as the "8th" guy, partly because of need and partly because he's the best of the available options. I thought he was going to get minutes this year regardless because of injuries and because he strikes me as a coaches pet (or someone coaches like). So far, he's earned his minutes though. If he keeps it up, he's going to probably get paid more than TL. How weird is that?
Jabari would be in a tie with Kanter because he can POINTZ as well as Kanter but can also "shoot" the 3, to be kind. If he was smart, he spent this entire offseason locked in a gym shooting 3s. I'd go with Kanter when rebounding was a concern. As long as TL is healthy, that won't be too often. TL is a very underrated rebounder, but that makes sense given the Triple D (dunks, deflections and dimes). I said it earlier, but if TL is going to be closer to 30 mpg than 25, there's not much room for Kanter. This is even more true if Grant keeps up his play.
After that, I'd probably play Bruno over Juancho. Not because I think he's better, but because he's an athletic freak and on the right side of 25. It would be better if he were 21 instead of 23 but if that were the case, he wouldn't be here. FYI, Moses Brown has played 1 game, 3 minutes for Dallas.
I think we were all off on our minutes predictions for TL. You don't pay a big 4/54 if you only intend to play him 20-25 minutes a game. The 20-25 minute a night bigs are the ones who are fungible and easily replaced in the offseason. If you want that, you sign TT to a 2 year deal. Theis did get 4/36 to play 20-25 minutes a game. That was in Houston though. Different situations. TL is also getting paid 50% more, not a small thing.
With Williams Squared getting 50+ minutes a night and a healthy Horford, there won't be very many minutes to go around. It's only 4 games in and things change, but I'd be hard pressed to make an argument for Kanter over Grant right now. I think even if Kanter was the 3rd string center, he's looking at 5-6 mpg. I'm not sure how effective anyone can be in that role over 82 games. The players who get 5-6 mpg usually play less than 70% of the teams games and only play in garbage minutes, when someone's in foul trouble or someone's injured. I'd rather they just give those minutes to Grant.
Are there matchups where people see Kanter fairing better defensively than Grant and Gang? If Grant shoots over 60% on his 2 point FGs (better shot selection, less 3'-10' jumpers) and over 35% on 3s, while keeping an assist rate around 15.0%, he's going to be a real asset on offense. He's almost to the point/at the point where he's a play regardless of matchup (partly because of personal). The passing is a good thing to see and it's probably real, considering the scouting reports had it has a plus. He either wasn't asked to use the skill much his first 2 seasons or it just took him a few years to adjust to the NBA. It's nice that there isn't a huge drop off in passing whether you have Al, TL or Grant out there. His rebounding is an issue and it's been pretty bad thru 4 games but the rest of the package is better.
TL DR Kanter has no role with RL playing 30+ and Grant playing 20+.
Kanter is a known quantity, whose best skills and biggest flaws are still there. At the same time, Udoka might need more information about the way the others play and with whom. He might also be some sort of practice beast and locker room presence on a team that occasionally needs to have its collective ass kicked and whose best players aren't natural ass-kickers.
Or TL and the medical staff found some workout or training regimen that, combined with altering his playing style a bit, allows him to be on the court more. One thing that none of us see that's a pretty big input into these decisions is how people are practicing.
One thing I think I've seen about TL is that he doesn't try to block every shot this season.
Agree with most of what you say but I'd quibble with the above only to say that most people think GW had a pretty good rookie bubble - if he was good at all in his rookie year. And as noted many times before, GW was helped by having a pretty limited number of opponents to prepare for.
And finally, to answer your question, I think Kanter has a pretty limited number of matchups that he's going to go against but they are very important - big centers like Embiid/Drummond, Howard, Jordan, maybe Jokic, etc. And I think he signed here because no one else wanted him and he likes it here.
It's early, SSS, I know - I know, but Horford has been brutal from 3 this season. Hopefully that gets better soon, because if he can't hit those - I think it really hurts the 2 big lineup.
Any reason at all to believe he can't? He's played 2 games and attempted 9 3s. Going off a 2 game sample size when it comes to 3 pointers is something.
The prior 6 seasons, Al Horford was 499/1362 from 3, .366. The worst he shot in those 6 seasons was .340, which was his 1st year shooting the 3.
That's a 385 game sample size of 3 pointers. He may be older, but shooting is one of the last skills to go.
On top of that, in his first Boston stint, he was 256/671, .382 in 208 games over the course of 3 seasons. We already know what kind of shooter he is. In those years he shot .355, .429, .360. Outside of the .429, he's been remarkedly consist from 3 the past 6.
.344
.355
.429
.360
.350
.368
Early and SSS don't even begin to describe using 2 games and 9 3s when we have 6 years of information. But yes, if he miraculously forget how to shoot the 3 over the summer, it will kill the 2 big lineup.
SSS is understating it. 2 games, 9 shots, the sample doesn't get much smaller than that. It's equally helpful to note that he shot 5-8 in the preseason, also in just 2 games. Either he'll shoot 62.5% or he'll shoot 11.1%...or somewhere in between.
I wonder if some of this is due to Al. The last time the C's had 2 shot blockers the caliber of TL and AL was KG and Perkins. Maybe he doesn't have to attempt blocking every shot because of Al, and by doing so, he actually picks up more blocks by not being over eager. I wonder if that has a ripple down effect that allows Al to pick up more blocks and also someone like Tatum.
In 4 games this year, the C's have 36 blocks. 1st in the league and 7 more blocks than the next team. Minnesota has 27 blocks in 3 games though.
If TL and AL are mostly healthy this season, the C's should be at the top of the league in blocks. They aren't going to average 9 a game, but they'll be in the top 5. They are also currently 8th in steals at 9.3. Minnesota (again) leads the league at 13.7.
Given the C's length, it's hard not to see them finishing in the top 5 in deflections this year.
If it makes you feel better, Al is killing it on the boards, posting a career high rebound rate. SSS being what it is, as that comes down his 3FG% will go up.
My hot take is Timelord looks like a guy who just signed a big contract and is not trying as hard as he was. This may also be conserving himself to play longer minutes, but he seems to be taking a fair number of possessions off.
He was playing 18-20 minutes last year. He was never going to be able to keep up that type of energy for 30+ minutes. I think he's been mostly fine thru the first 5 games though.
He said earlier this year he was going to pace himself. He cited Horford's influence and recommendations with that.
The injuries may lessen if he doesn't jump 3 feet in the air every trip down the floor. Seems like he is tipping out lots of balls that don't show up on the stat sheet. He has been good, TL is the least of our problems.
According to Gorman and Scal on the broadcast, Rob has more alley-oop dunks than 25 teams.
What he could really use is like a 3-foot shot. For those times when he's not in position to dunk and wants to do something other than throw up a brick.
What he could really use is like a 3-foot shot. For those times when he's not in position to dunk and wants to do something other than throw up a brick.
The list of Celtic would-be bigs who just needed to work with McHale is loooooooooooooong... Alaa Abdelnaby, Mark Acres...
Ouch, the dude is finally getting a chance to play consistent games/minutes
Rob will get there and add to his offensive repertoire, he's far from his peak
I swear this board wants players to be fully formed without playing NBA games. The team has to invest minutes if they want young players to develop.
I was gonna say same thing. How do you include a Basketball Hall of Famer with Montross, Vitaly and Blount?
I'm not demanding that he be fully formed. I'm saying that he needs something for when he has the ball near the hoop, but can't get to the rim for some reason. I think that being able to hit from 3 feet would in some ways serve him better right now than able to hit from 12 feet. (Which he has done a couple of time).
Yeah, he tried a fadeaway sort of thing last night that clanged off back iron. I was yelling for the baby hook.
He has such good hands and is such a great finisher whenever the ball falls in his lap that he should be able to have a nice touch on the ball and leave it ip there softly.
He has such good hands and is such a great finisher whenever the ball falls in his lap that he should be able to have a nice touch on the ball and leave it ip there softly.
Rob's FG% is at 72% for 3 straight seasons now
from 3-10" he was 65% last season and is 60% this season
He'll continue to get better, I just don't see a huge hole with his 3" shot. The ball has arc/lands soft, he keeps the ball high, and rarely gets blocked down low. I'm sure playing with Al/Enes he'll eventually pick up some of their tricks around the hoop.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/williro04.html#all_shooting-playoffs_shooting
I’m wondering how well his game will age. His wingspan won’t get any shorter with the passage of time, certainly, but I’d guess his otherworldly vertical leap will fade. He is a good passer, and that should potentially get better as time goes on (it does for many players)
5 blocks away from a quadruple double.
I look forward to a Timelord quadruple double.
One thing that would help him a ton going forward is if he could develop that Daniel Theis shot from the free throw circle.
If he could make (and be willing to take) that shot, with his size and passing ability he'd be a one man zone buster.
He actually looks pretty good shooting it, he just rarely looks to shoot. His first instinct seems to be to move the ball, which isn't a bad thing given the propensities of the rest of the team.