Timelord Injury Watch

[JakeRae]

I like Jarrett Allen and agree there is upside still remaining. Where I struggle with that contract is you are betting on what I'd say is about a 10% or so outcome for him. He's a good defensive center, but not elite. Maybe he takes a step up defensively and becomes a top level help defender, but far from sure thing. He's solid offensively and very efficient, but we haven't seen a lot of reason to think he's a 18-20 point a game guy either and he can't really pass (so, even if he somehow takes a huge step up from what we've seen it isn't going to be transformative as he's really just a finisher). He's already a very good rebounder.

So if you put together improvement in the first two and continued very good rebounding you get to a guy who is a top-5 center, maybe even top 3. That is worth this contract for sure. But it also assumes a bunch of growth across his game, and unless you get that you're overpaying a top-10 center who is not elite at anything (but also not bad at anything).

Allen is a better player overall right now than TL, but I'd rather TL on his deal than Allen on his for sure---you have a chance TL is elite defensively and he is a more versatile offensive player thanks to the passing even if he's vastly less consistent. If you were, say, the Bucks you might prefer Allen's certainty but that isn't really where the Cavs (or Celtics) are....the lack of elite upside is an issue at that salary level

I’d disagree on this. Timelord is better at just about everything than Allen other than health (that’s obviously a significant issue here, and I’m reading this post to refer to value when playing rather than the value of being able to play and responding accordingly). Timelord rates better by LEBRON and DARKO, and RAPTOR views them as having been fairly even in terms of value when playing. Timelord has a TS% in the low .700s, considerably higher than Allen’s mid-.600s efficiency despite a usage that, last year, was just 1.5% lower—and Timelord has a trend of increasing usage without loss of efficiency. Timelord has a higher rebounding rate, and doubles Allen’s rates of assists, steals, and blocks while only turning over the ball slightly more. Via the eye test, Timelord pops in a way Allen doesn’t. He has defensive versatility to defend down on switches that Allen lacks, he is a major disruptive presence on the defensive end (although still has lapses that detract from his overall value on that end), and his combination of rim running and passing impacted Boston’s offense last year in ways that stretched beyond his individual stats.

Allen is a good player with a real role in the league. Timelord is a player that, if he can be healthy (a big if) will play in All Star games. The talent isn’t close. The value probably should be, with a lot more health risk in the Timelord contract discounting his significantly higher talent level.

 

[Euclis20]

Allen is a better player overall right now than TL, but I'd rather TL on his deal than Allen on his for sure---you have a chance TL is elite defensively and he is a more versatile offensive player thanks to the passing even if he's vastly less consistent. If you were, say, the Bucks you might prefer Allen's certainty but that isn't really where the Cavs (or Celtics) are....the lack of elite upside is an issue at that salary level

+1 on this. It's not just whether or not Allen is worth 5/100, it's also whether or not the Cavs (who are far from competing and just drafted a a guy at the same position) overpaid here considering how their next few years look.

Worth nothing the vast difference in availability, though. Allen played 1864 minutes last season, which happens to be the exact same number of total minutes (regular season plus playoffs) that Williams has played in his entire 3 year career. This says more about TL than Allen, not great.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I’d disagree on this. Timelord is better at just about everything than Allen other than health (that’s obviously a significant issue here, and I’m reading this post to refer to value when playing rather than the value of being able to play and responding accordingly). Timelord rates better by LEBRON and DARKO, and RAPTOR views them as having been fairly even in terms of value when playing. Timelord has a TS% in the low .700s, considerably higher than Allen’s mid-.600s efficiency despite a usage that, last year, was just 1.5% lower—and Timelord has a trend of increasing usage without loss of efficiency. Timelord has a higher rebounding rate, and doubles Allen’s rates of assists, steals, and blocks while only turning over the ball slightly more. Via the eye test, Timelord pops in a way Allen doesn’t. He has defensive versatility to defend down on switches that Allen lacks, he is a major disruptive presence on the defensive end (although still has lapses that detract from his overall value on that end), and his combination of rim running and passing impacted Boston’s offense last year in ways that stretched beyond his individual stats.

Allen is a good player with a real role in the league. Timelord is a player that, if he can be healthy (a big if) will play in All Star games. The talent isn’t close. The value probably should be, with a lot more health risk in the Timelord contract discounting his significantly higher talent level.

We've seen enough NBA basketball to know though that (especially with bigs) numbers rarely stay consistent on a per minute basis over more minutes. Over the last 2 years Allen has played 3 times as many minutes as TL.

Also, I think honestly Allen probably has more potential in some ways than TL. He's a significantly better FT shooter, and CLE had him start shooting some 3s this year (32% on 0.5 per game but it's a start). TL might be an elite defender some day, but Allen has the much clearer path to being a top 10 or so C. He shoots 35% from 3, adds a bit of usage (he also draws fouls at a high rate, while TL doesn't at all), and you're looking at a guy who is easily worth that deal. TL needs a lot more, he needs to show he can stay healthy, he needs to show he can play high minutes per game, he needs to show he has any kind of scoring ability.

I can see the case for TL, but the floor is way lower and him reaching anywhere near his ceiling is harder to project.

Edit- I think this is a really good deal for BOS, I also think the CLE deal for Allen was fine, and I can see why each guy got what he did.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I don't care about the specific contracts for Jarrett Allen or even RWIII . However there is simply not enough information available to outsiders to accurately characterize a new contract's value. People doing so are making assumptions about team and league finances, geographic premiums as well as specific situations.

I get that we need takes because without it we don't have an opinion market but there are a lot of definitive statements being made about big deals where people aren't privvy to the crucial details. That should be acknowledged before we start arguing about who is right about valuation.

After almost two decades on this site, I am only certain of one thing - nobody who posts here can see the future. Other than that, all else is mostly lightly informed opinion.

People can argue about valuation but from a strategic standpoint, the question (as noted above but not really discussed) is that if the Cavs didn't re-sign Allen, what were they going to do with his money? From what I understand, next year's FA class is pretty slim pickings. I guess they could go the OKC route and start using their salary cap to suck up bad contracts and get draft picks, but they've been bad for so long, I'm not sure ownership has an appetite for this.

At some point, the Cavs likely figured out that they were long shots to replace Allen's talent, even if Allen doesn't get any better. I.e., purely from a talent perspective, they likely couldn't figure out a better way to spend the money. Thus the contract, whether it is eventually deemed an overpay or not.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I think there's an element of risk analysis and maximizing opportunity that weighs in favior of this move.

Robert Williams, if healthy, has a very high ceiling. Max contract, third star next to the Jays is possible for him. Even if healthy, it is far from a certainty her gets that far, but it is likely enough that no one would be shocked by it. So there is an opportunity here to have that kind of player under contract at less than half of his value.

If you are a team like the present day Celtics, it is worth taking some risk to get that third star, especially if you are getting him at a big discount. Those players aren't always readily available to the Celtics.

Then there is the downside. The odds are pretty low that he is a total loss who gives them nothing, but reasonably high that the injuries detract enough from his game that he never hits his true potential. What does that look like? A guy that doesn't play starter minutes, misses a lot of games, loses some of his athleticism. What happens if that is the Rob Williams we get over the next 5 years? Then we are overpaying him, but it is still not as if we are handing $14 million per year to a Vincent Poirier who will never see the floor. Let's say he's a 1,200 minute per year guy who misses a lot of games. That's a version of Tristan Thompson, who just made $9M per year from us, and the salary scale will no doubt rise during Williams' contract.

And in the worst case scenario where Williams is a total loss, that's bad but it falls within the level of bad that an NBA team can manage and still compete.

I think if you balance all of the risks and potential benefits, and add in the fact that it is never easy for a team like the Celtics to add a star, the smart money is on taking some significant risk to lock in the potential upside.

 

[BringBackMo]

Timelord rates better by LEBRON and DARKO, and RAPTOR views them as having been fairly even in terms of value when playing. Timelord has a TS% in the low .700s, considerably higher than Allen’s mid-.600s efficiency despite a usage that, last year, was just 1.5% lower—and Timelord has a trend of increasing usage without loss of efficiency. Timelord has a higher rebounding rate, and doubles Allen’s rates of assists, steals, and blocks while only turning over the ball slightly more.

Also, I think honestly Allen probably has more potential in some ways than TL. He's a significantly better FT shooter, and CLE had him start shooting some 3s this year (32% on 0.5 per game but it's a start). TL might be an elite defender some day, but Allen has the much clearer path to being a top 10 or so C. He shoots 35% from 3, adds a bit of usage (he also draws fouls at a high rate, while TL doesn't at all), and you're looking at a guy who is easily worth that deal. TL needs a lot more, he needs to show he can stay healthy, he needs to show he can play high minutes per game, he needs to show he has any kind of scoring ability.

This rebuttal to JR’s post seems largely to boil down to TL needs to show that he can stay healthy (which everyone agrees with), and that his better-than-Allen production can be maintained over an increase in mpg. You also point out that Allen is a better and more versatile scorer. Certainly fair, but if you were assured that TL’s injury problems were behind him, are you saying that you would still prefer Allen to him? If so, OK. But if not, doesn’t that really just get us back to the fact that all of this simply comes down to whether TL can stay healthy?

 

[Cellar-Door]

This rebuttal to JR’s post seems largely to boil down to TL needs to show that he can stay healthy (which everyone agrees with), and that his better-than-Allen production can be maintained over an increase in mpg. You also point out that Allen is a better and more versatile scorer. Certainly fair, but if you were assured that TL’s injury problems were behind him, are you saying that you would still prefer Allen to him? If so, OK. But if not, doesn’t that really just get us back to the fact that all of this simply comes down to whether TL can stay healthy?

Not just stay healthy, but also perform at a high level for a significantly higher number of minutes per game, which is not just a health issue. Being able to sustain a high load is maybe the single most important NBA skill, there are plenty of guys who are healthy and can't keep up 30 MPG performance.

TL has multiple issues that people are incorrectly lumping into a single health issue:
1. Can he stay healthy and be available to play in games
2. Can he play 29 MPG at a high level

If he could do both he's probably more valuable than an Allen, of course if Allen adds a 3, he might be more valuable even than a 30MPG TL, because despite the defensive difference he'd suddenly be a real threat offensively which TL isn't.

To make the minutes thing more clear, Allen averaged 29.6 MPG last year, TL has played more than 28 minutes ONCE in his entire career.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Is Allen really any more likely to add a 3 than TL? Neither seem like likely candidates.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

If he could do both he's probably more valuable than an Allen, of course if Allen adds a 3, he might be more valuable even than a 30MPG TL, because despite the defensive difference he'd suddenly be a real threat offensively which TL isn't.

This ignores Williams’ passing - an area where he showed real gains last season that Allen has not. I think that is worth more than Allen’s potential to develop a three.

 

[benhogan]

To make the minutes thing more clear, Allen averaged 29.6 MPG last year, TL has played more than 28 minutes ONCE in his entire career.

That is the most damning stat out there with the Allen vs TL debate

I'd GUESS TLs production would stay consistent throughout his MPG, his production is based mostly on his freakish wingspan and quick jumpz for dunks (FG%) and quick jumpz for blocks at the rim or perimeter. As long as he has his bouncy springs it will continue to translate with a MPG increase against starters or reserves. I actually hope the Celtics never play TL that many MPG and load manage the crap out of him to save him for the playoffs.

Overriding all this is the next NBA TV contract and mass vaccinations/full arenas. The cap will see a sharp rise sometime in the very near future after it was flattened for a couple of seasons due to COVID/China Morey Kerfuffle.

Younger players should get locked up now and will get paid. What may appear as slight overpays (Allen, TL, Smart) may be reasonable by next Summer.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/22/nba-is-next-up-for-a-big-rights-increase-and-75-billion-is-the-price.html

 

[HomeRunBaker]

This may not belong in the Williams thread, but I'm not sure where this 'the advanced metrics like [Allen's] D' stuff is coming from. He grades +0.9 defensively on DARKO, which is fine, but sort of meh for a big (not in the top 25 for a big). That's my own stat, but the two best public metrics (EPM and LEBRON) are also meh on him. EPM grades him as +0.5, which is again outside the top 25 among centers. LEBRON grades him at +0.7, which again is meh for a center.

I'm fine with the Allen deal if you think he has room to grow, but without material growth, that's an underwater contract imo.

Do you have Allen’s year-by-year defensive numbers? I would expect to see a gradual improvement as his body grows. He wasn’t able to hold position at all as a rookie which is when I’d guess this would show his worst defensive numbers.

Is Allen really any more likely to add a 3 than TL? Neither seem like likely candidates.

Yes. Extraordinary more likely as he’s been taking them and has displayed good mechanics, rotation, release, etc to grow. I don’t believe TL has ever attempted a single one in the flow of the offense.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I think the question is whether Allen has the instincts and (imo) quickness to ever be an elite 5/rim protector. I have not personally seen it, in spite of the wingspan and overall defensive growth. I think "pretty good" is where he is and while he might improve, it's not a given for me.

TL, for his massive problems playing a lot of minutes and various mental gaps, has already demonstrated he has super-elite defensive capabilties, at the DPOY level physicially and anticipation. Tons of reasons to think he's never going to reachquite that level, but it will not be because he's too slow, can't jump, can't anticipate, timing, etc.

 

[JakeRae]

Do you have Allen’s year-by-year defensive numbers? I would expect to see a gradual improvement as his body grows. He wasn’t able to hold position at all as a rookie which is when I’d guess this would show his worst defensive numbers.


Yes. Extraordinary more likely as he’s been taking them and has displayed good mechanics, rotation, release, etc to grow. I don’t believe TL has ever attempted a single one in the flow of the offense.

If you go by box score DARKO sees his defense as pretty static after an initial uptick following his rookie season, which makes sense since his box score metrics haven’t really moved much during that time.


If you go by the non box score based DARKO, you see an improvement that stretches further but then a bigger decline in Cleveland last year.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

That is the most damning stat out there with the Allen vs TL debate

Personally, I'd GUESS TLs production would stay consistent throughout his MPG, his production is based mostly on his freakish wingspan and quick jumpz for dunks (FG%) and quick jumpz for blocks at the rim or perimeter. As long as he has his bouncy springs it will continue to translate with a MPG increase against starters or reserves.

The quick jumps could be a stamina thing. Can he be as bouncy playing 30 as 15? I doubt it. He may be "less productive" on a per minute level but he'll be far more valuable overall.

Given the team's makeup, what do people think a realistic stat line for TL is in 30 mpg? I'd guess something like 12 points, 10 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.3 blocks, 1.2 steals on 70% shooting. I see most of his production holding up but I think his block % will slip with more minutes. 2.3 bpg would have been good for 3rd place this year. Of the top 10 shot blockers in the game, the only other player with any type of passing game is Jakob Poeltl. He's not at TL's level.

Bigs who can pass are becoming less rare by the day, but shot blockers who can pass are very rare. Of course, shot blocking isn't necessarily a valuable skill. While 3.0+ APG and 2.5+ BPG isn't incredibly rare, the list is made of players like Kareem, Hakeem David Robinson, Lanier, Shaq. Also, Andrei Kirilenko. AK47 had an interesting start to his career but fizzled out quickly. At one point, people were discussing the original PP for AK47. Not a bad list to be on.

25 years ago, maybe TL scores 20+ a game and is in the conversation with David Robinson, Hakeem, Patrick Ewing, Alonzo Mourning. Today, not so much. He can still have a huge impact scoring double digits every night without any plays really being run for him and his offensive rebounding ability coupled with his passing on offense. On defense, well I don't have to state the obvious.

Hopefully he stays healthy and can play 30 minutes a night, retaining most of his production. He has the 3rd (or 4th, hi Begarin) highest ceiling on the team and at that contract, he'd be an absolute steal. If by some miracle he also adds a 3, maybe it's 2nd. That comes with the downside of paying him for predicted production rather than actual production and hoping his health holds up. Another thing to note is that RL's contract gives them another decent sized contract for matching purposes.

If TL does put up a healthy season where he only misses 2 games and averages the 30 mpg, 12/10/3/2.3/1.2 season I predicted a fully healthy TL could do, he's probably getting closer to 4/90. Capela got 5/90 and Allen got 5/100. TL would be a bit more valuable than both.

Big ifs. I think most of us agree the potential is there and even if the per minute production slips a little, he can still make an impact. We all agree on his health concerns. Where people differ now is how much they think the production slips playing 30 instead of 18.

It's also possible he lands in the middle at 25 and ends up being worth his contract, rather than being a bargain or a liability.

Anyway, let the season start already!

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Yes. Extraordinary more likely as he’s been taking them and has displayed good mechanics, rotation, release, etc to grow. I don’t believe TL has ever attempted a single one in the flow of the offense.

I mean I guess that's fair, but only because TL's chances are so low. Maybe Allen turns into a Daniel Theis type 3 point shooter. I just don't see him ever being more than that but in this era, who knows.

FWIW, for their careers a higher % of TL's shots come from 10-16 and 16-3' (4.8%/4.8%) than Jarrett Allen (3.3%/1.4%). TL's 3 point % is at .5%, while Allen's is at 4.4%. Their average shot distance this year was 4.5 ft for Allen and 4.1 for Rob. Allen is a bit better at FT shooting and is about 200 days younger than TL too.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

If you go by box score DARKO sees his defense as pretty static after an initial uptick following his rookie season, which makes sense since his box score metrics haven’t really moved much during that time.

View attachment 43679
If you go by the non box score based DARKO, you see an improvement that stretches further but then a bigger decline in Cleveland last year.
View attachment 43680

I don’t view his slope like that at all. There was a significant upswing up until what looks like the Cleveland trade. Since so many individual metrics mirror those of the team to some (and sometimes a lot) degree it isn’t abnormal to see his metrics drop after trending up from a good defensive team the prior year to a godawful shit show in Cleveland.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

If TL does put up a healthy season where he only misses 2 games and averages the 30 mpg, 12/10/3/2.3/1.2 season I predicted a fully healthy TL could do, he's probably getting closer to 4/90. Capela got 5/90 and Allen got 5/100. TL would be a bit more valuable than both.

If TL plays 2400 minutes next year, his extension will be a steal and the Cs will be title contenders I think even if you have projected his stats correctly, as the vertical spacing on offense and the rim protection on defense really helps this team.

I would be ecstatic if TL played 1500 minutes next year so long as he was available through the playoffs.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

If TL plays 2400 minutes next year, his extension will be a steal and the Cs will be title contenders I think even if you have projected his stats correctly, as the vertical spacing on offense and the rim protection on defense really helps this team.

I would be ecstatic if TL played 1500 minutes next year so long as he was available through the playoffs.

That would be roughly 75 g and 20mpg. Or 60 games and 25 mpg. With TL, the latter is probably more likely and then it becomes a matter of being healthy for the playoffs, as you noted.

I don't know why I said 2 games because even a fully healthy TL is going to sit out some games and be closer to 70-75. I'd love around 1800-2100. 1500 I would take but that means he's not playing much or he missed a stretch of games due to an injury.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Given the team's makeup, what do people think a realistic stat line for TL is in 30 mpg? I'd guess something like 12 points, 10 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.3 blocks, 1.2 steals on 70% shooting. I see most of his production holding up but I think his block % will slip with more minutes. 2.3 bpg would have been good for 3rd place this year. Of the top 10 shot blockers in the game, the only other player with any type of passing game is Jakob Poeltl. He's not at TL's level.

Time Lord's production shifted a bit when he started last year.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/williro04/splits/2021

As a starter: 23.7 minutes, 9.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists
As a reserve: 17.4 minutes, 7.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists

Points and rebounds are about the same on a per minute basis, but starter Time Lord had way more assists per minute than backup Time Lord. Backup Time Lord had a big edge in steals and blocks but also turned the ball over a lot more.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Is Allen really any more likely to add a 3 than TL? Neither seem like likely candidates.

Quite a bit, he started taking them last year and shot 32%, and he's a better FT shooter

This ignores Williams’ passing - an area where he showed real gains last season that Allen has not. I think that is worth more than Allen’s potential to develop a three.

It doesn't ignore it. He's a good passer for a big, but being a good passing big isn't going to offset that he doesn't stretch, create his own shot or draw FTs. TL would need to improve one of those areas to offset Allen becoming a stretch, which is valuable not just in the extra points he'd put up, but also how spacing changes. TL's hopeful projection is poor man's Gobert, but Gobert like Allen draws FTs at a really high rate.

I also wonder how big the gap is. TL put up a 14% AST % last year, a big jump from his previous high of 10.1%. Allen put up 8.7, down a tick from his high of 8.9. Career, TL is at 11.4 to Allen's 7.9, a significant gap, but Allen isn't terrible and TL isn't elite. If TL is really over 14% long term that would be really interesting, if he's 11-14 vs a guy in the 9-10 range... meh, nice to have, but not a real major offensive impact.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Time Lord's production shifted a bit when he started last year.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/williro04/splits/2021

As a starter: 23.7 minutes, 9.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists
As a reserve: 17.4 minutes, 7.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists

Points and rebounds are about the same on a per minute basis, but starter Time Lord had way more assists per minute than backup Time Lord. Backup Time Lord had a big edge in steals and blocks but also turned the ball over a lot more.

Steals and blocks seem like a hustle/energy thing so with more minutes, I would guess those 2 things would go down. Assist rate may go up considerably if he's playing 30 minutes and any of the offense runs through him.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Time Lord's production shifted a bit when he started last year.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/williro04/splits/2021

As a starter: 23.7 minutes, 9.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists
As a reserve: 17.4 minutes, 7.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists

Points and rebounds are about the same on a per minute basis, but starter Time Lord had way more assists per minute than backup Time Lord. Backup Time Lord had a big edge in steals and blocks but also turned the ball over a lot more.

I’d guess the assists are a product of a more fluid offense with Tatum, Kemba and/or Fournier shooting the ball off rotations rather than Grant, Semi and Romeo.

 

[Fishy1]

I’d guess the assists are a product of a more fluid offense with Tatum, Kemba and/or Fournier shooting the ball off rotations rather than Grant, Semi and Romeo.

Wasn't he also being asked to pass a little more out of the top of the key and even run the offense, like Horford did? I feel like when he was coming off the bench it was more strictly pick and roll action. But last season is all a distant, painful memory to me.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Wasn't he also being asked to pass a little more out of the top of the key and even run the offense, like Horford did? I feel like when he was coming off the bench it was more strictly pick and roll action. But last season is all a distant, painful memory to me.

Yes. The first unit was cohesive for the most part due to the defenses concerned about getting beat so they played more defensively than they would against second units which is common throughout the league. When they tried running stuff with the second unit we’d struggle sometimes even with the initial high post entry.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Steals and blocks seem like a hustle/energy thing so with more minutes, I would guess those 2 things would go down. Assist rate may go up considerably if he's playing 30 minutes and any of the offense runs through him.

His assist rate should go up just by getting more minutes with legitimate NBA rotation players. You know, guys who can score when they're open.

Edit: posted too fast. HRB more or less said the same thing.

 

[Euclis20]

To make the minutes thing more clear, Allen averaged 29.6 MPG last year, TL has played more than 28 minutes ONCE in his entire career.

Even that game gets an asterisk, because it was in OT (the loss to NO last year).

 

[Fishy1]

Yes. The first unit was cohesive for the most part due to the defenses concerned about getting beat so they played more defensively than they would against second units which is common throughout the league. When they tried running stuff with the second unit we’d struggle sometimes even with the initial high post entry.

Oh that makes total sense. It felt like the only effective action for that second unit was Pritchard-Timelord pick-and-rolls. But those were limited, of course, because besides a lob or a deep three, there weren't many options: whip it to Ojeleye or Grant Williams standing in the corner? Or send it back out to Teague? Yikes.

 

[Big McCorkle]

Short of Williams suffering some catastrophic injury, it's hard to see how the contract doesn't go well for the Celtics. In the case that he doesn't get his availability to be reliable in the next few years, Williams is easily tradable (he, at the very least, would have positive value; wouldn't have to attach assets to get him off the books) at that price point given his potential and would be quite useful with salary matching if need be. In the case that he does get his injury concerns under control but doesn't really develop much from here on, then you've got a really good role player for cheap, one who, again, would be immensely useful in facilitating the sort of superstar trade that teams and fans like to plan for and fantasize about. And in the case that he stays healthy and continues to develop, then what you've probably got is a first or second team All-Defensive big man with a plus impact on offense, both as a highly effective interior scorer and as a passer, for two to three years at that 13-14 million dollar price point. Or longer than that, if he really makes a leap this offseason or next.

Is Allen really any more likely to add a 3 than TL? Neither seem like likely candidates.

I mean, three point shooting, it's one skill, Michael, what could it really take? Ten days in the gym?

 

[JakeRae]

Quite a bit, he started taking them last year and shot 32%, and he's a better FT shooter


It doesn't ignore it. He's a good passer for a big, but being a good passing big isn't going to offset that he doesn't stretch, create his own shot or draw FTs. TL would need to improve one of those areas to offset Allen becoming a stretch, which is valuable not just in the extra points he'd put up, but also how spacing changes. TL's hopeful projection is poor man's Gobert, but Gobert like Allen draws FTs at a really high rate.

I also wonder how big the gap is. TL put up a 14% AST % last year, a big jump from his previous high of 10.1%. Allen put up 8.7, down a tick from his high of 8.9. Career, TL is at 11.4 to Allen's 7.9, a significant gap, but Allen isn't terrible and TL isn't elite. If TL is really over 14% long term that would be really interesting, if he's 11-14 vs a guy in the 9-10 range... meh, nice to have, but not a real major offensive impact.

I think you’re framing this wrong regarding passing. Allen’s assist rate by season is 5.4%, 7.9%, 8.9%, 8.7%, with a career rate of 7.9%. I’d assume the slight bump from year 2 to 3 is real, but you’d expect a roughly 9% assist rate going forward with a reasonable amount of certainty.

Timelord’s rates are 3.3%, 10.1%, 14.2% and did that with a trend of increasing usage and larger role. He also looks like a good natural passer on the court, and as others have noted, his passing improved during the season last year. There’s a lot of variance in any projection of Timelord due to his limited playing time, but there is a stronger case to expect continued improvement as a passer versus regression toward his career average of 11.4%.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Oh that makes total sense. It felt like the only effective action for that second unit was Pritchard-Timelord pick-and-rolls. But those were limited, of course, because besides a lob or a deep three, there weren't many options: whip it to Ojeleye or Grant Williams standing in the corner? Or send it back out to Teague? Yikes.

This is a decent part of my concern (bewilderment?) with Smart running the first unit as he was one of the culprits in these initiating issues.

 

[bakahump]

I mean, three point shooting, it's one skill, Michael, what could it really take? Ten days in the gym?

Simmons says 2 Weeks to be safe.

 

[JakeRae]

Quite a bit, he started taking them last year and shot 32%, and he's a better FT shooter

I agree, but it’s the difference between highly unlikely and difficult to conceive of. Timelord is a .623 career FT shooter and has shot and missed 2 threes in his NBA career. There’s no reason to think he’ll ever even try to develop a three. Allen is a .696 career FT shooter and .200 from three on 85 attempts. He was 6/19 last year, which is a .316 rate. His highest volume season was 2018-19 where he shot 45 threes and only made 6. Nothing about Allen’s career as a shooter looks like a guy who will add the ability to hit threes at a rate that actually impacts an offense positively. It’s possible, and it seems clear he’ll keep shooting some threes, but I’d ascribe basically zero value to his potential as a three point shooter. Of note, using a formula I found online that estimates future shooting based on a combination of past shooting rate and percent and FT% I get an estimate of 30% exactly. If you just use last year’s performance, the result is 31.9%. Either way, there’s no real basis to think he can shoot at a level where opposing teams will ever care to try to stop him from shooting.

 

[slamminsammya]

I agree, but it’s the difference between highly unlikely and difficult to conceive of. Timelord is a .623 career FT shooter and has shot and missed 2 threes in his NBA career. There’s no reason to think he’ll ever even try to develop a three. Allen is a .696 career FT shooter and .200 from three on 85 attempts. He was 6/19 last year, which is a .316 rate. His highest volume season was 2018-19 where he shot 45 threes and only made 6. Nothing about Allen’s career as a shooter looks like a guy who will add the ability to hit threes at a rate that actually impacts an offense positively. It’s possible, and it seems clear he’ll keep shooting some threes, but I’d ascribe basically zero value to his potential as a three point shooter. Of note, using a formula I found online that estimates future shooting based on a combination of past shooting rate and percent and FT% I get an estimate of 30% exactly. If you just use last year’s performance, the result is 31.9%. Either way, there’s no real basis to think he can shoot at a level where opposing teams will ever care to try to stop him from shooting.

There's no real basis to discount the possibility of that happening by quoting the mean value of a model that really should be returning a distribution in order to give any weight to the argument you are making.

 

[JM3]

Allen is overpaid, sure.

But what else were the Cavs going to do with the $?

 

[JakeRae]

There's no real basis to discount the possibility of that happening by quoting the mean value of a model that really should be returning a distribution in order to give any weight to the argument you are making.

Sometimes less rigorous approaches are sufficient. Unless you care to present an argument for why one should actually think there’s a non-negligible probability of Allen developing a valuable ability to shoot threes, this is the wrong place for your, admittedly valid, critique of the formula I was able to quickly locate to test the proposition that nothing about the way Allen currently shoots provides any real hope that he will do so.

 

[slamminsammya]

Sometimes less rigorous approaches are sufficient. Unless you care to present an argument for why one should actually think there’s a non-negligible probability of Allen developing a valuable ability to shoot threes, this is the wrong place for your, admittedly valid, critique of the formula I was able to quickly locate to test the proposition that nothing about the way Allen currently shoots provides any real hope that he will do so.

Here is my argument: Plenty of big men, especially those who are good at FTs, have developed the ability to shoot 3s after not being able to do that. Here are some:

Ibaka
Baynes
Horford
Lopez
Cousins
Vucevic

Its not like Allen is a career 30% guy on big volume. Baynes shot 15% on roughly the same volume as Allen until he started taking them a lot.

Have you tried back testing the formula you found on any of those guys using their early low volume seasons?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Here is my argument: Plenty of big men, especially those who are good at FTs, have developed the ability to shoot 3s after not being able to do that. Here are some:

Ibaka
Baynes
Horford
Lopez
Cousins
Vucevic

Its not like Allen is a career 30% guy on big volume. Baynes shot 15% on roughly the same volume as Allen until he started taking them a lot.

Have you tried back testing the formula you found on any of those guys using their early low volume seasons?

Most of those players were considerably better FT shooters. It's not like Allen has shown year to year growth from the FT line and 69.6% isn't particularly good.

 

[slamminsammya]

Most of those players were considerably better FT shooters. It's not like Allen has shown year to year growth from the FT line and 69.6% isn't particularly good.

Yeah, I am not saying its likely. Just that its not negligible. Guys get better at FTs too.

 

[BringBackMo]

Not just stay healthy, but also perform at a high level for a significantly higher number of minutes per game, which is not just a health issue. Being able to sustain a high load is maybe the single most important NBA skill, there are plenty of guys who are healthy and can't keep up 30 MPG performance.

TL has multiple issues that people are incorrectly lumping into a single health issue:
1. Can he stay healthy and be available to play in games
2. Can he play 29 MPG at a high level

If he could do both he's probably more valuable than an Allen, of course if Allen adds a 3, he might be more valuable even than a 30MPG TL, because despite the defensive difference he'd suddenly be a real threat offensively which TL isn't.

To make the minutes thing more clear, Allen averaged 29.6 MPG last year, TL has played more than 28 minutes ONCE in his entire career.

OK. I thought I explicitly mentioned your argument that TL has to show that he can continue to out perform Allen as he plays more minutes. Perhaps I didn’t give that element of your argument enough emphasis.

Regardless, I don’t think the minutes critique is entirely fair. It wasn’t until they traded Theis last year that TL even had an opportunity to play more minutes. Theis was traded on March 25. Here are TL's minutes played after that:

3/26 27:00
3/27 25:58
3/29 32:21
3/31 DNP
4/02 25:49
4/04 25:23
4/06 13:56 (fouled out)
4/07 24:50
4/09 24:32
4/11 26:38
4/13 25:40
4/15 though 4/27 DNP
4/28 16:50
4/30 23:27
5/2 24:03
5/05 21:13
5/07 DNP
5/09 11:27
5/11 through 5/16 DNP

So basically he was playing something like 25 minutes per game from 3/26 until 4/13, excluding the game he fouled out of on 4/06. Then he missed nearly two weeks because of an injury, came back and appeared to be building his minutes back up for a few games before effectively missing the rest of the season with, yes, injuries. YMMV but it appears to me as though, absent those injuries (which are the major TL concern, of course!) he was playing something like 25 mpg, during a stretch that included some of the most productive basketball of his career. Now maybe his per-minute production craters if he's asked/able to play another 5 mpg this season. It's certainly possible. But I'd say it's just as possible that he's able to maintain his production.

 

[benhogan]

SoSH has officially ushered in the

Jarrett Allen 3-Point Watch

 

[Eddie Jurak]

It doesn't ignore it. He's a good passer for a big, but being a good passing big isn't going to offset that he doesn't stretch, create his own shot or draw FTs. TL would need to improve one of those areas to offset Allen becoming a stretch, which is valuable not just in the extra points he'd put up, but also how spacing changes. TL's hopeful projection is poor man's Gobert, but Gobert like Allen draws FTs at a really high rate.

I also wonder how big the gap is. TL put up a 14% AST % last year, a big jump from his previous high of 10.1%. Allen put up 8.7, down a tick from his high of 8.9. Career, TL is at 11.4 to Allen's 7.9, a significant gap, but Allen isn't terrible and TL isn't elite. If TL is really over 14% long term that would be really interesting, if he's 11-14 vs a guy in the 9-10 range... meh, nice to have, but not a real major offensive impact.

Al Horford's first 3 years were 7.9%, 11.9%, 10.4%, and over his enitre 9 years in Atlanta he was 14.0%. His 3 years in Boston were 23.1%. Over the past 5 years (Boston Philly OKC), 22.0%. The rookie year was the only year he was below 10%, although he played more minutes in that year than TL did in his first 3.

 

[JakeRae]

Here is my argument: Plenty of big men, especially those who are good at FTs, have developed the ability to shoot 3s after not being able to do that. Here are some:

Ibaka
Baynes
Horford
Lopez
Cousins
Vucevic

Its not like Allen is a career 30% guy on big volume. Baynes shot 15% on roughly the same volume as Allen until he started taking them a lot.

Have you tried back testing the formula you found on any of those guys using their early low volume seasons?

Have you back tested your apparent theory that height is a good predictor of the ability to develop the ability to make threes?

More constructively, the link between free throw shooting and developing three point shooting is well documented. I’m not sure if you’re actually challenging that connection or just being difficult for the sake of being difficult, but I’m not claiming to have proven that relationship, I’m relying on a widely known and accepted aspect of basketball player development and was using a rough estimator to illustrate how that plays out looking at Allen.

Finally, your list makes no sense. Several of the players on it are not good three point shooters. Baynes had two passable seasons and then shot like 26% last year and is around 30% for his career. Cousins is a 33% three point shooter even though he shoots a lot of them (he’s also the worst FT shooter of the group and shoots 73.7% to Allen’s 69.6%). Several of these players shoot about 80% from the line. If Allen shot 80% from the line I wouldn’t be saying he is unlikely to learn to shoot threes. If he was showing improvement as a free throw shooter I’d also see grounds for optimism, or even if he was a 75% free throw shooter. None of those are true. They may someday become true. It’s not impossible. But there is no reason I have seen articulated yet here why anyone should attribute any meaningful likelihood to that possibility.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Yeah, I am not saying its likely. Just that its not negligible. Guys get better at FTs too.

Yeah we're starting to see guys that are mediocre free throw shooters turning into average to above average 3pt shooters with the right work. It's weird and counterintuitive, but those guys are out there. Lonzo's year before last was .375 and below 60% from the line. Jaylen is average from the line and plus from 3.

 

[slamminsammya]

Have you back tested your apparent theory that height is a good predictor of the ability to develop the ability to make threes?

We are going in circles at this point so I won't press the point after this post. Guys started practicing 3s a lot more in the past decade and they got better at them. So the theory is not that height predicts ability to develop, its that more practice leads to skills improving.

EDIT: That list by the way was just what I could throw together off the top of my head. I can't believe this is a controversial point in 2021, that a pretty young big guy who showed a nice stroke (as in, has an actual shooting motion) has more than a negligible chance at being a decent 3 point shooter.

Spencer Hawes
Rasheed Wallace
Marc Gasol
Marreese Speights
Larry Nance Jr

 

[Jimbodandy]

Sorry for another driveby, but any thread that works in Mo Speights is fine by me. Somewhere he took three shots while I wrote this post.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

We are going in circles at this point so I won't press the point after this post. Guys started practicing 3s a lot more in the past decade and they got better at them. So the theory is not that height predicts ability to develop, its that more practice leads to skills improving.

EDIT: That list by the way was just what I could throw together off the top of my head. I can't believe this is a controversial point in 2021, that a pretty young big guy who showed a nice stroke (as in, has an actual shooting motion) has more than a negligible chance at being a decent 3 point shooter.

Spencer Hawes
Rasheed Wallace
Marc Gasol
Marreese Speights
Larry Nance Jr

I’ve always said that TL had face up shooting potential based off his FT mechanics back when he was at A&M……but lumping him in with such pure shooters at a young age as Hawes, Sheed and Gasol is where you lost even me.

 

[slamminsammya]

I’ve always said that TL had face up shooting potential based off his FT mechanics back when he was at A&M……but lumping him in with such pure shooters at a young age as Hawes, Sheed and Gasol is where you lost even me.

We were talking about Allen.

 

[benhogan]

I’ve always said that TL had face up shooting potential based off his FT mechanics back when he was at A&M……but lumping him in with such pure shooters at a young age as Hawes, Sheed and Gasol is where you lost even me.

SoSH has officially ushered in the

Jarrett Allen 3-Point Watch

I wouldn't be shocked to see TL's FT shooting improve with more minutes, his form is OKish. But 3pt shooting? He'll be a threat from distance much like that coward Ben Simmons.

 

[bankshot1]

Re: TL and 3s:

Until he made 5 3s in a row, as a defender I would let him play on the perimeter all by himself, and play D 5 v 4. IMO he has much more offensive value playing close to the hoop for high % shots and O-boards/put backs, or use his passing abilities to kick-out the ball to an open 3-shooter. If he can develop a decent 10-12 ft jumper, great. But I want to optimize his strengths, quickness and athleticism to help the team, and not diminish them asking him to do something he's not really wired to do.

 

[bakahump]

@JakeRae I would love to hear what your formula says about Ben Simmons and some other "If on that guy could only shoot 3s" (langford is another).