Time to trade Devers?

[TomRicardo]

The same reason the Red Sox should trade Devers, there is none.

I want whatever risque pictures you have of Nip.

The original thesis was trading Devers for several pitchers in Seattle's young pitching core. The idea being the Red Sox window is further out than next year with Anthony, Campbell, and Mayer settling in to full seasons in 2026 (Anthony is the only guy I can see starting the full year and knowing the Red Sox can see them stalling that to keep control). Woo/Miller have five more years of control, are the back of the Seattle rotation, and would instantly be the ace of the Red Sox staff.

Seattle has a championship rotation with NO hitting outside of their catcher.

 

[Max Power]

Good point. I would trade Bello and Anthony for Ragans. It'd be hard, but I'd do it.

You better be 100% sure that Ragans doesn't revert to his Texas home run rate moving to another hitters' park before you make that move. Because you could find Ragans and Bello swapping performances and giving away the #1 prospect in baseball as a sweetener.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I want whatever risque pictures you have of Nip.

The original thesis was trading Devers for several pitchers in Seattle's young pitching core. The idea being the Red Sox window is further out than next year with Anthony, Campbell, and Mayer settling in to full seasons in 2026 (Anthony is the only guy I can see starting the full year and knowing the Red Sox can see them stalling that to keep control). Woo/Miller have five more years of control, are the back of the Seattle rotation, and would instantly be the ace of the Red Sox staff.

Seattle has a championship rotation with NO hitting outside of their catcher.

Neither of us is getting a lot of direct answers to the main premises here.

Seems like the overall pulse of the board is to aim at 87 wins and then anything can happen in the playoffs. Which is great if you're Billy Beane 20 years ago with the budget of a medium sized food truck, but not if you're a top revenue team whose owners own many teams in many sports and could actually spend commensurate to their revenue.

It feels like another bridge year. But who can tell?

 

[bosox1534]

I want whatever risque pictures you have of Nip.

The original thesis was trading Devers for several pitchers in Seattle's young pitching core. The idea being the Red Sox window is further out than next year with Anthony, Campbell, and Mayer settling in to full seasons in 2026 (Anthony is the only guy I can see starting the full year and knowing the Red Sox can see them stalling that to keep control). Woo/Miller have five more years of control, are the back of the Seattle rotation, and would instantly be the ace of the Red Sox staff.

Seattle has a championship rotation with NO hitting outside of their catcher.

Even if the window is better in 2026, making a couple moves puts them in position to make a run this year. I still don’t understand even if the window is 2026 why getting rid of Devers improves that team? You can get pitching in other ways rather than trying to trade with the overvaluing Mariners, and it doesn’t have to be the 24 year old controllable pitcher that’s going to cost a fortune. I think the main reason you want to trade him is because you don’t like him as a player because sometimes he comes off a little lazy, but I don’t think that’s a fair assumption. The guy has not missed hardly any games in all his years here, has fought through pretty difficult injuries and has been one the most consistent hitters in baseball. Your mindset is one of a team that is still in rebuild mode and I believe the Sox are past that, they have their major league core and their minor league core pretty set. Max Fried would only cost money, is still pretty young and will provide similar if not better immediate results than Woo and Miller. And if you’re reasoning is that similar production can be found by signing Teoscar, why wouldn’t we just add him rather than having to subtract to get him. You aren’t giving the current team enough credit, you seem to be taking a pessimistic view on nearly every current Sox major leaguer, which isn’t accurate or fair.

 

[catomatic]

I want whatever risque pictures you have of Nip.

The original thesis was trading Devers for several pitchers in Seattle's young pitching core. The idea being the Red Sox window is further out than next year with Anthony, Campbell, and Mayer settling in to full seasons in 2026 (Anthony is the only guy I can see starting the full year and knowing the Red Sox can see them stalling that to keep control). Woo/Miller have five more years of control, are the back of the Seattle rotation, and would instantly be the ace of the Red Sox staff.

Seattle has a championship rotation with NO hitting outside of their catcher.

You’re declaring them a championship rotation and potential Aces of the Red Sox staff while leaving untouched the subject of park factor?

Didn’t someone already overlay Kutter Crawford’s ‘23 on Seattle’s leviathan dimensions and find that he too would be part of that vaunted championship rotation?

If your thought experiment includes dangling Devers, oughtn’t there be some more granular context provided in these putative Aces of Fenway?

Did someone already do this and I missed this context? If so, apologies, but seems an appropriate bit of spade work to provide.

 

[bosox1534]

You’re declaring them a championship rotation and potential Aces of the Red Sox staff while leaving untouched the subject of park factor?

Didn’t someone already overlay Kutter Crawford’s ‘23 on Seattle’s leviathan dimensions and find that he too would be part of that vaunted championship rotation?

If your thought experiment includes dangling Devers, oughtn’t there be some more granular context provided in these putative Aces of Fenway?

Didn’t someone already I miss this context? If so, apologies, but seems an appropriate bit of spade work to provide.

I think for a while now many of us have said that if Kutter played in Seattle he would be viewed similarly to Miller and Woo.

 

[TomRicardo]

You’re declaring them a championship rotation and potential Aces of the Red Sox staff while leaving untouched the subject of park factor?

Didn’t someone already overlay Kutter Crawford’s ‘23 on Seattle’s leviathan dimensions and find that he too would be part of that vaunted championship rotation?

If your thought experiment includes dangling Devers, oughtn’t there be some more granular context provided in these putative Aces of Fenway?

Didn’t someone already I miss this context? If so, apologies, but seems an appropriate bit of spade work to provide.

They were last year. Houck would be the only guy from our rotation last year that would have broke into Seattle's rotation. Castillo was the worst out of the five when you look at fWAR. Woo pitched about 2/3 of a season and had 2.3 fWAR. I guess Crawford in 2023 would have been able to edge out Castillo for the fifth role in Seattle's rotation in 2024.

Seattle had the fourth best rotation in baseball, park adjusted. Only Atlanta was deeper (Atlanta is so so deep). Philly and KC are more top heavy.

Being able to pair a Woo with Bello going forward puts a lot less pressure on the Red Sox for when Houck and Crawford reach free agency together.

 

[Cassvt2023]

They were last year. Houck would be the only guy from our rotation last year that would have broke into Seattle's rotation. Castillo was the worst out of the five when you look at fWAR. Woo pitched about 2/3 of a season and had 2.3 fWAR. I guess Crawford in 2023 would have been able to edge out Castillo for the fifth role in Seattle's rotation in 2024.

Seattle had the fourth best rotation in baseball, park adjusted. Only Atlanta was deeper (Atlanta is so so deep). Philly and KC are more top heavy.

Being able to pair a Woo with Bello going forward puts a lot less pressure on the Red Sox for when Houck and Crawford reach free agency together.

I’m trying to get this straight in my brain: you’re looking to trade Devers to Seattle for Woo so you can pair him with Bello to safeguard for when Houck and Crawford hit free agency? And you’re pissed that we didn’t spend 800 million to bring in Soto For 15 years? Ok, I think I get it now.

 

[TomRicardo]

I’m trying to get this straight in my brain: you’re looking to trade Devers to Seattle for Woo so you can pair him with Bello to safeguard for when Houck and Crawford hit free agency? And you’re pissed that we didn’t spend 800 million to bring in Soto For 15 years? Ok, I think I get it now.

The team absolutely refuses to pay for top tier pitching. Hell they refuse to pay for second tier pitching. Right now their entire system is fringe AAAA talent and a guy who just got a tommy john.

I mean who do you think is going to pitch for them.

 

[bosox1534]

The team absolutely refuses to pay for top tier pitching. Hell they refuse to pay for second tier pitching. Right now their entire system is fringe AAAA talent and a guy who just got a tommy john.

I mean who do you think is going to pitch for them.

WTF are you talking about AAAA talent? The rotation?

 

[TomRicardo]

WTF are you talking about AAAA talent? The rotation?

Yes people often use the word system to describe the rotation...

 

[bosox1534]

Yes people often use the would system to describe the rotation...

I have never heard the rotation called a system, but I might just be too young to know the saying. Either way calling Bello Houck and Crawford AAAA talent is blasphemy. At the end of the day do you just enjoy being an asshole to get a rise out of people like me, or do you truly feel this bad about the team?

 

[TomRicardo]

I have never heard the rotation called a system, but I might just be too young to know the saying. Either way calling Bello Houck and Crawford AAAA talent is blasphemy. At the end of the day do you just enjoy being an asshole to get a rise out of people like me, or do you truly feel this bad about the team?

Are you Rudy P? I missed you

 

[bosox1534]

Are you Rudy P? I missed you

Like I said, too young to know the references I guess.

 

[richgedman'sghost]

The team absolutely refuses to pay for top tier pitching. Hell they refuse to pay for second tier pitching. Right now their entire system is fringe AAAA talent and a guy who just got a tommy john.

I mean who do you think is going to pitch for them.

Crochet. Where you been?

 

[Otis Foster]

Are you Rudy P? I missed you

I have no idea how old you are, but your comments earmark you as a grumpy old man with chronic dyspepsia and a negative mindset. Is there anything that’s happened to the RS in the last 24 months or so that give you the slightest degree of pleasure or optimism?

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I have no idea how old you are, but your comments earmark you as a grumpy old man with chronic dyspepsia and a negative mindset. Is there anything that’s happened to the RS in the last 24 months or so that give you the slightest degree of pleasure or optimism?

TomRicardo is the Highlander. He is infinite. He is legion.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

TomRicardo is the Highlander. He is infinite. He is legion.

And there can only be one.



Do add something here - no, I don't think we should trade Devers. I especially don't think we should trade him after acquiring what I assume will be the ace to put in front of the rotation for the next 6 seasons.

Adding Crochet and doing nothing else probably makes this an 85 win team. (I think O'Neill can be easily replaced, if nothing else because you should come out ahead with Casas at 1b and whoever ends up in LF >>> O'Neill and Dom Smith; also I think Giolito should be able to provide about what Pivetta provided last year. I'd feel better with a defined closer, but Chapman can fill that role adequately if necessary, a$$hat though he is).

That acquisition alone should / would have put them in direct contention for WC2 and WC3 up until the last day of the season. Funny how much more optimistic things seem when you actually add a ToR caliber starter.

 

[TomRicardo]

I have no idea how old you are, but your comments earmark you as a grumpy old man with chronic dyspepsia and a negative mindset. Is there anything that’s happened to the RS in the last 24 months or so that give you the slightest degree of pleasure or optimism?

Yea I am the embodiment of FUD for the Red Sox. FSG's management of the Sox over the last couple of years is a lot like Crypto scam.

Adding Crochet and doing nothing else probably makes this an 85 win team. (I think O'Neill can be easily replaced, if nothing else because you should come out ahead with Casas at 1b and whoever ends up in LF >>> O'Neill and Dom Smith; also I think Giolito should be able to provide about what Pivetta provided last year. I'd feel better with a defined closer, but Chapman can fill that role adequately if necessary, a$$hat though he is).

I agree that getting Crochet solved one of the problems trading Devers was meant to solve (he is still in a timebomb contract that is overpaying a bit at the moment). The Red Sox desperately need a RHH bat that crushes lefties or they might be historically terrible against lefties next year. I wonder if the Red Sox will make a play at Vlad now that he is breaking off negotiations with Toronto.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

I wonder if the Red Sox will make a play at Vlad now that he is breaking off negotiations with Toronto.

Vlad Jr. will require a massive deal that will dwarf Devers' current contract. And he's a bad fielder who has struggled to stay in shape.

Look at their stats over the last 3 seasons. Dumping Devers to sign Vlad Jr. to a deal that will likely cost at least 1.5X as much money... why would we want to do that?

You'd have to immediately post a "Time to Trade Vlad Jr" thread.

Vlad JR on the left and Devers on the right (2022-2024 seasons):

 

[nvalvo]

I wonder if the Red Sox will make a play at Vlad now that he is breaking off negotiations with Toronto.

If the Blue Jays are actually rebuilding, here's a bonkers win-now trade that I am not sure is a good idea at all:

What about a trade of 3-4 good-not-great prospects (i.e., from the 5–25 range on SoxProspects: something like Perales, Cespedes, Sandlin, Castro) and Masataka Yoshida (3/$57 remaining) for Vlad Guerrero and George Springer (2/$50m left)?

That's a lot of RHH thump, although it's been a minute since Springer was good. Springer takes over the O'Neill role of super-talented RHH OF we try to keep healthy for 110 games. Guerrero is the everyday DH. Then you QO Guerrero on the way out the door to recoup some prospect capital.

You have the following lineup:

L Duran CF
R Springer LF
L Devers 3B
R Guerrero DH
L Casas 1B
R Story SS
L Abreu RF
R Wong C
R Grissom 2B

 

[Mantush]

You aren’t getting Vlad Jr. without giving up a top 100 prospect or two.

 

[nvalvo]

You aren’t getting Vlad Jr. without giving up a top 100 prospect or two.

You may be right, which is why something like this almost certainly won't happen. I don't think we have room on the 2030 roster for two expensive DHs, so I would only be interested in Guerrero for 2025.

 

[Buckethead]

The Red Sox are going into their 6th rebuilding season in their quest to use private equity strategies to turn themselves into.a second division team and possibly lower their team value somehow.

Fact is even if they grabbed Burnes, Teoscar, and Fried, the team is probably an 85 win team. Maybe there is some incredible RNG like 2021 when Xander Bogaerts (remember him) led a bunch of replacement talent playing out of their mind (Arroyo, Kike, and Dalbec), the Sox make the playoffs and can steal a series or two but they have to still shake out this roster again. So then the Red Sox are saddled with a team on two to three timelines that still is probably the third best team in their division.

I think at this point the Red Sox need stop trying to throw a bunch of stop gaps that don't work, and just reset. I would personally look into trading Devers especially with Seattle.

Devers could probably fetch a package of Woo, Garcia, and Ford.

I would not go after Bergmann to fill the spot as once again trying to avoid the expensive stop gaps that have been killing the Sox in Kennedy era.

I'm curious how you came up with this return for Devers. According to Baseball Trade Values, it's not even close to being fair. Red Sox would have to pay a portion of Devers's contract or include at least one of the remaining three big prospects.

I also just don't see the logic in trading Devers. Since 2019, Devers is 15th in WAR (24.0), 6th in runs (523), 8th in home runs (169), 5th in RBI (542), and 12th in OPS (.876). He's been a player that had he been in another organization, we'd be wishing we had him.

 

[Buckethead]

If the Blue Jays are actually rebuilding, here's a bonkers win-now trade that I am not sure is a good idea at all:

What about a trade of 3-4 good-not-great prospects (i.e., from the 5–25 range on SoxProspects: something like Perales, Cespedes, Sandlin, Castro) and Masataka Yoshida (3/$57 remaining) for Vlad Guerrero and George Springer (2/$50m left)?

That's a lot of RHH thump, although it's been a minute since Springer was good. Springer takes over the O'Neill role of super-talented RHH OF we try to keep healthy for 110 games. Guerrero is the everyday DH. Then you QO Guerrero on the way out the door to recoup some prospect capital.

You have the following lineup:

L Duran CF
R Springer LF
L Devers 3B
R Guerrero DH
L Casas 1B
R Story SS
L Abreu RF
R Wong C
R Grissom 2B

Should have just stopped this reply at "3-4 good not great prospects".

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

If the Blue Jays are actually rebuilding, here's a bonkers win-now trade that I am not sure is a good idea at all:

What about a trade of 3-4 good-not-great prospects (i.e., from the 5–25 range on SoxProspects: something like Perales, Cespedes, Sandlin, Castro) and Masataka Yoshida (3/$57 remaining) for Vlad Guerrero and George Springer (2/$50m left)?

That's a lot of RHH thump, although it's been a minute since Springer was good. Springer takes over the O'Neill role of super-talented RHH OF we try to keep healthy for 110 games. Guerrero is the everyday DH. Then you QO Guerrero on the way out the door to recoup some prospect capital.

You have the following lineup:

L Duran CF
R Springer LF
L Devers 3B
R Guerrero DH
L Casas 1B
R Story SS
L Abreu RF
R Wong C
R Grissom 2B

I love the idea of getting Vlad and putting him in between Casas but I immediately saw his FA value drop if he's deemed by a team to not be good enough to play 1B defensively.... Springer is still decent, but like a lot of the trade proposals here... this leaves out the number 1 prospect in all of baseball..... and i can imagine another team offering more for a year of Vlad that has more of a need.... NYY's for one. Judge can probably make it one more year in the field...

 

[nvalvo]

Should have just stopped this reply at "3-4 good not great prospects".

One year of Vlad at his $~25m arb award is valuable, but the right to pay him 15/$450m thereafter is not actually all that valuable IMO.

 

[Buckethead]

One year of Vlad at his $~25m arb award is valuable, but the right to pay him 15/$450m thereafter is not actually all that valuable IMO.

It's not all about the Red Sox. Why would the Blue Jays trade Vlad AND Springer for 3-4 good not great prospects and Masa? Makes no sense at all.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I agree that getting Crochet solved one of the problems trading Devers was meant to solve (he is still in a timebomb contract that is overpaying a bit at the moment). The Red Sox desperately need a RHH bat that crushes lefties or they might be historically terrible against lefties next year. I wonder if the Red Sox will make a play at Vlad now that he is breaking off negotiations with Toronto.

Agree about the right handed bat. But FWIW, I do think they need that bat to be someone that is balanced enough to start and do so effectively against RHPs also. You very well might have meant that. Another version of Rob Refsnyder is not the answer.

They have - at present - somewhere between 5-7 players in their starting line up that probably should be platooned and they only have 3 bench spots (outside of back up C). Even if they give Abreu more run against LHPs - which I'm not against to see if he can improve, for the record, you still are looking at a large number of players that are worthless against one side of the plate or the other.

 

[nvalvo]

It's not all about the Red Sox. Why would the Blue Jays trade Vlad AND Springer for 3-4 good not great prospects and Masa? Makes no sense at all.

The Jays are not likely to compete this year, and if they are not extending Guerrero, they need to get something better than the QO pick to hasten a rebuild. That's all. Those kinds of trades do not generally return top-top prospects.

Why would the Red Sox trade Betts AND Price for three good-not-great prospects?

 

[EvilEmpire]

I can understand why the Red Sox would now want to be the Dodgers side of a Mookie-like deal for Vladdie Jr., but I don't get why the Blue Jays would.

Seems like they might learn a different lesson from the Boston experience. And if it turned out in similar fashion they'd get to revisit it multiple times a year with a division rival.

 

[bosox1534]

The Jays are not likely to compete this year, and if they are not extending Guerrero, they need to get something better than the QO pick to hasten a rebuild. That's all. Those kinds of trades do not generally return top-top prospects.

Why would the Red Sox trade Betts AND Price for three good-not-great prospects?

I believe that at the time Downs was a top 50 prospect and Verdugo was viewed quite highly at the time as well, probably similar to Abreu is now, if not better.

 

[simplicio]

Tucker just cost a 3+ war 3b with 3 years of control, 4 years of a reliever with 5th starter potential, and the Cubs' 2024 1st round pick who put up an OPS over 1 across 3 levels into AA straight out of college.

Guerrero was the better player this year. If he's going to move the cost will be significant.

 

[Buckethead]

The Jays are not likely to compete this year, and if they are not extending Guerrero, they need to get something better than the QO pick to hasten a rebuild. That's all. Those kinds of trades do not generally return top-top prospects.

Why would the Red Sox trade Betts AND Price for three good-not-great prospects?

You're speaking from hindsight here, which simply is not fair. There's a giant difference between the trade package you mentioned and what we got for Mookie + Price.