Time to trade Devers?

[TomRicardo]

I'm going to defend TomRicardo a bit and reiterate that I think Devers is overrated. He is indeed a very good, but not great player. His splits don't do him any favors, same with his capacity to stay healthy, and his fielding. And I agree that's he's not likely to improve on any of those fronts. Trading him would be a Brad Stevens kind of move, akin to trading Marcus Smart. Though part II of a Smart type trade would be to improve the team here and now. That's where I disagree with Tom: I think the team is just about 3 acquired players (plus the rising youngsters) from being a contender.

I don't think there are three players left out there that are going to bridge the 12-15 win gap for real contention. Soto is one of the few guys like Mookie, Ohtani, Judge, and Witt that could do that. A top SP can make about 2 - 2.5 wins of difference at best from Pivetta, Criswell and Bello who while weren't great, were not awful.

You are going to close that gap at this point with Anthony and Mayer becoming 3.5-4+ WAR players and improving 2B. Casas is more likely to be more valuable than Devers if not still in his ballpark next year. I just think that is going to take a year or two at this point. That said they need to clear up the trainwreck of roster they have right now to give the younger players reps and build into something. There just isn't a continued value to have Trevor Story and Yoshida here anymore.

I am not saying the Red Sox shouldn't go attack the pitching market, however they should not dump Casas to make room for Devers who probably isn't that much better (don't think a guy who has put so little into his improvement over the last six years is going to pick up a new position lickety split)

Devers is a bit overrated on this board. He is a good 3B but he is not a hall of fame talent. He is a consistent 3.5-4.0 WAR player even if he had a shoulder issue last year. There is value there with this, most likely being at its zenith right now. While I would bet that Casas has a better season than him next year, I wouldn't bet a lot. Devers is very consistent and why he would have value to Seattle who are being offered a fairly inferior Bohm right now. I am not saying dump him like I would with Story and Yoshida. But I think you could get a ton a value offering him to a Seattle right now, more so than Casas even if I value Casas more right now because of where the Red Sox are. Seattle is just in a better place this year than the Red Sox are though the Red Sox will most likely be better in 2 years.

People need to be realistic about where this team and the options left on the table. Chapman was a poor signing unless they really felt they had Soto but it was a low risk bad move.

 

[cantor44]

I don't think there are three players left out there that are going to bridge the 12-15 win gap for real contention. Soto is one of the few guys like Mookie, Ohtani, Judge, and Witt that could do that. A top SP can make about 2 - 2.5 wins of difference at best from Pivetta, Criswell and Bello who while weren't great, were not awful.

You are going to close that gap at this point with Anthony and Mayer becoming 3.5-4+ WAR players and improving 2B. Casas is more likely to be more valuable than Devers if not still in his ballpark next year. I just think that is going to take a year or two at this point. That said they need to clear up the trainwreck of roster they have right now to give the younger players reps and build into something. There just isn't a continued value to have Trevor Story and Yoshida here anymore.

I am not saying the Red Sox shouldn't go attack the pitching market, however they should not dump Casas to make room for Devers who probably isn't that much better (don't think a guy who has put so little into his improvement over the last six years is going to pick up a new position lickety split)

Devers is a bit overrated on this board. He is a good 3B but he is not a hall of fame talent. He is a consistent 3.5-4.0 WAR player even if he had a shoulder issue last year. There is value there with this, most likely being at its zenith right now. While I would bet that Casas has a better season than him next year, I wouldn't bet a lot. Devers is very consistent and why he would have value to Seattle who are being offered a fairly inferior Bohm right now. I am not saying dump him like I would with Story and Yoshida. But I think you could get a ton a value offering him to a Seattle right now, more so than Casas even if I value Casas more right now because of where the Red Sox are. Seattle is just in a better place this year than the Red Sox are though the Red Sox will most likely be better in 2 years.

People need to be realistic about where this team and the options left on the table. Chapman was a poor signing unless they really felt they had Soto but it was a low risk bad move.

Well, I could do the WAR research but am a combination of too lazy and too busy (though maybe you could do it for me!) ...add two front of the rotation starters, say Fried and Crochet. Add Teoscar. Add another blue chip reliever. Consider Anthony and Campbell ROY contention players ...subtract Abreau who is dealt. Add a healthy Story, who makes an enormous difference on D ...how many wins we talking then? Might just be 12!

 

[TomRicardo]

Well, I could do the WAR research but am a combination of too lazy and too busy (though maybe you could do it for me!) ...add two front of the rotation starters, say Fried and Crochet. Add Teoscar. Add another blue chip reliever. Consider Anthony and Campbell ROY contention players ...subtract Abreau who is dealt. Add a healthy Story, who makes an enormous difference on D ...how many wins we talking then? Might just be 12!

That would at best get you to 6-8 wins. Maybe 9 if Anthony comes out as the reincarnation of Mookie Betts/Ellsbury (it is going to be very hard for him to beat Abreu's year last year). If a healthy Trevor Story exists he is really not the game changer that is going propel this team with Mayer and Rafaela behind him. Unless you are assuming he is going to start hitting pre Covid levels which he has not shown even a glimpse of.

Yea you are looking at 85-88 win season so fighting for the third wild card, maybe a playoff team.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Well, if you are projecting Casas to have a better season than Devers, that’s likely 2-3 wins right there.

 

[bosox1534]

I don't think there are three players left out there that are going to bridge the 12-15 win gap for real contention. Soto is one of the few guys like Mookie, Ohtani, Judge, and Witt that could do that. A top SP can make about 2 - 2.5 wins of difference at best from Pivetta, Criswell and Bello who while weren't great, were not awful.

You are going to close that gap at this point with Anthony and Mayer becoming 3.5-4+ WAR players and improving 2B. Casas is more likely to be more valuable than Devers if not still in his ballpark next year. I just think that is going to take a year or two at this point. That said they need to clear up the trainwreck of roster they have right now to give the younger players reps and build into something. There just isn't a continued value to have Trevor Story and Yoshida here anymore.

I am not saying the Red Sox shouldn't go attack the pitching market, however they should not dump Casas to make room for Devers who probably isn't that much better (don't think a guy who has put so little into his improvement over the last six years is going to pick up a new position lickety split)

Devers is a bit overrated on this board. He is a good 3B but he is not a hall of fame talent. He is a consistent 3.5-4.0 WAR player even if he had a shoulder issue last year. There is value there with this, most likely being at its zenith right now. While I would bet that Casas has a better season than him next year, I wouldn't bet a lot. Devers is very consistent and why he would have value to Seattle who are being offered a fairly inferior Bohm right now. I am not saying dump him like I would with Story and Yoshida. But I think you could get a ton a value offering him to a Seattle right now, more so than Casas even if I value Casas more right now because of where the Red Sox are. Seattle is just in a better place this year than the Red Sox are though the Red Sox will most likely be better in 2 years.

People need to be realistic about where this team and the options left on the table. Chapman was a poor signing unless they really felt they had Soto but it was a low risk bad move.

To be fair, David Ortiz is a hall of famer, and Devers has put up better numbers to this point in his career, so I don’t think it’s fair to say he isn’t a hall of fame talent. Perhaps you’re undervaluing him; there’s a reason guys like Juan Soto get paid so much, there are hardly any like him.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

Devers signed his extension 11 months ago. Regardless of anyone's opinion on him as a player or the value of a contract, trading or shopping a player you signed to a long term deal 11 months ago to a 10 year deal is colossally dumb in the short and long term for obvious reasons.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

Devers (28) is two years older than Soto, with their birthdays on consecutive days. Is there any doubt that if he was a free agent he'd be paid WAY more than his current contract?

He's a homegrown player who has consistently put up very good offensive numbers and who is in the prime age range of his career just as the Sox are finally ready to be competitive. Build around him with the understanding that he can move to DH sometime in the future.

 

[scottyno]

That would at best get you to 6-8 wins. Maybe 9 if Anthony comes out as the reincarnation of Mookie Betts/Ellsbury (it is going to be very hard for him to beat Abreu's year last year). If a healthy Trevor Story exists he is really not the game changer that is going propel this team with Mayer and Rafaela behind him. Unless you are assuming he is going to start hitting pre Covid levels which he has not shown even a glimpse of.

Yea you are looking at 85-88 win season so fighting for the third wild card, maybe a playoff team.

Story has been worth 4 wins in 160 games for Boston while being a below average hitter. Considering they got a net 0.1 war out of SS and 2B this year 4 wins would be a game changer even if his offense didn't improve. I have no idea how you can look at all that and get to "at best 6-8 wins"

Obviously they could add all that and only get 6-8 wins improvement because other things could happen, but no way the upside of Story+2 front line starters+ improved bullpen+ the prospects playing lights out tops out at 6-8 wins over what they got from those positions this year.

 

[Salem's Lot]

I don't think there are three players left out there that are going to bridge the 12-15 win gap for real contention. Soto is one of the few guys like Mookie, Ohtani, Judge, and Witt that could do that. A top SP can make about 2 - 2.5 wins of difference at best from Pivetta, Criswell and Bello who while weren't great, were not awful.

You are going to close that gap at this point with Anthony and Mayer becoming 3.5-4+ WAR players and improving 2B. Casas is more likely to be more valuable than Devers if not still in his ballpark next year. I just think that is going to take a year or two at this point. That said they need to clear up the trainwreck of roster they have right now to give the younger players reps and build into something. There just isn't a continued value to have Trevor Story and Yoshida here anymore.

I am not saying the Red Sox shouldn't go attack the pitching market, however they should not dump Casas to make room for Devers who probably isn't that much better (don't think a guy who has put so little into his improvement over the last six years is going to pick up a new position lickety split)

Devers is a bit overrated on this board. He is a good 3B but he is not a hall of fame talent. He is a consistent 3.5-4.0 WAR player even if he had a shoulder issue last year. There is value there with this, most likely being at its zenith right now. While I would bet that Casas has a better season than him next year, I wouldn't bet a lot. Devers is very consistent and why he would have value to Seattle who are being offered a fairly inferior Bohm right now. I am not saying dump him like I would with Story and Yoshida. But I think you could get a ton a value offering him to a Seattle right now, more so than Casas even if I value Casas more right now because of where the Red Sox are. Seattle is just in a better place this year than the Red Sox are though the Red Sox will most likely be better in 2 years.

People need to be realistic about where this team and the options left on the table. Chapman was a poor signing unless they really felt they had Soto but it was a low risk bad move.

They are not trading the one guy that they actually paid. It’s a complete non starter from a PR & business standpoint and you know it.

There are moves out there that this front office can make to make this a playoff team in 2025 as long as ownership wants to spend some money.

 

[RS2004foreever]

The Red Sox are going into their 6th rebuilding season in their quest to use private equity strategies to turn themselves into.a second division team and possibly lower their team value somehow.

Fact is even if they grabbed Burnes, Teoscar, and Fried, the team is probably an 85 win team. Maybe there is some incredible RNG like 2021 when Xander Bogaerts (remember him) led a bunch of replacement talent playing out of their mind (Arroyo, Kike, and Daubach), the Sox make the playoffs and can steal a series or two but they have to still shake out this roster again. So then the Red Sox are saddled with a team on two to three timelines that still is probably the third best team in their division.

I think at this point the Red Sox need stop trying to throw a bunch of stop gaps that don't work, and just reset. I would personally look into trading Devers especially with Seattle.

Devers could probably fetch a package of Woo, Garcia, and Ford.

I would not go after Bergmann to fill the spot as once again trying to avoid the expensive stop gaps that have been killing the Sox in Kennedy era.

I do not understand your math at all. You add two front line starters and Teoscar you are going to contend for the division.
Adding two front line starters to a team than won 81 games last year and missed significant time from players at short and 1st would be a big deal.
This division is not what it was two years ago.

 

[bosox1534]

Can I suggest locking the thread? It was obviously started as a troll job by a guy who wants to piss off a bunch of real fans. It has no real substance and the question posed makes zero sense to any sensible person. He’s been making posts like these for years and I don’t want to keep wasting my time getting upset from a person who has no idea what they are talking about.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Can I suggest locking the thread? It was obviously started as a troll job by a guy who wants to piss off a bunch of real fans. It has no real substance and the question posed makes zero sense to any sensible person. He’s been making posts like these for years and I don’t want to keep wasting my time getting upset from a person who has no idea what they are talking about.

I would refute that said poster has no idea what he is talking about. I would argue that he loves getting other rational posters on here all worked up, so the best course of action is to simply ignore him rather than engaging in his bait. It has worked for me for months now, and it’s been awesome! I like reading and responding to so so many others on here.

 

[Jimbodandy]

How about addressing the vibe of his question, rather than handwaving it away.

Is this team in GFIN mode or rebuild mode? If they're in GFIN mode, then why are they spending like they're the Twins? If they're in rebuild mode, why hold onto Devers?

These seem like fair questions, not trolling.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

They aren’t in GFIN mode; the team’s core is fairly young and locked up for a long time. I’d say they are closer to rebuilding than GFIN, but not really there either- they are looking to add players on short term deals, not subtract. I do think they are in this weird area where they don’t want to give up too much in a trade and don’t want to sign guys for too long- hence they end up bouncing around from one player to another without a ton of focus; kind of always searching for deals and looking at all kinds of possibilities, but perhaps a little hesitant to actually pull the trigger.

Its early though, and that’s a really a reaction to the last few off seasons under multiple GM’s and when the team was in a different place. I think we need at least a month or so to really have a clearer picture of what the plan is; I suspect it could diverge on multiple paths depending on multiple marketplace factors.

 

[Cassvt2023]

How about addressing the vibe of his question, rather than handwaving it away.

Is this team in GFIN mode or rebuild mode? If they're in GFIN mode, then why are they spending like they're the Twins? If they're in rebuild mode, why hold onto Devers?

These seem like fair questions, not trolling.

fair. if you can admit that said poster enjoys stirring the pot. Devers is a great hitter, plays hard and wants to be out there, sometimes to his detriment. I believe he is best served playing around 75-90 games at 3b at this point in his career, with the other 60-70 at DH. His shoulders take a pounding when he’s playing the field every day and that surely has a huge effect on his hitting.

 

[Daniel_Son]

How about addressing the vibe of his question, rather than handwaving it away.

Is this team in GFIN mode or rebuild mode? If they're in GFIN mode, then why are they spending like they're the Twins? If they're in rebuild mode, why hold onto Devers?

These seem like fair questions, not trolling.

They've stated they're competing this year. We lost out on Soto, which isn't the outcome I had hoped for, but let's see if they can land Burnes or Fried or swing a trade for a pitcher before calling the offseason a failure.

 

[TomRicardo]

I do not understand your math at all. You add two front line starters and Teoscar you are going to contend for the division.
Adding two front line starters to a team than won 81 games last year and missed significant time from players at short and 1st would be a big deal.
This division is not what it was two years ago.

Pythagorean Win = Runs Scored2/(Runs Scored2 + Runs Allowed2)

Last year the Red Sox scored 751 runs and gave up 747 runs hence they were in line with their .500 record. They lost Tyler O'Neil which means their expected scored runs goes down. It is a bigger issue because he generated an outsized amount of their offense against LHP to the point their hit less than .680 ops against lefties without him.

O'Neill statistically with his bat created about 70 runs with 131 wrc+ which means Tyler's 70 RC (run created) were 131% better than you expect an average player having his ABs. Replacing him with Teoscar 134 wrc+ would mean you would expect Teoscar in the same PA on the Red Sox to generate about 71-72 runs. Now you can argue that Teoscar may have more ABs but in general I would imagine they would have about the same role on the team. Lets say you create another ~10 runs from having Casas have more ABs. Lets be really generous assume Duran and Abreu won't drop off much and Anthony will have a rookie season akin to Mookie. Sunshine and rainbows. For the sake of rounder numbers we add 49 more runs which is extremely unlikely by just adding Teoscar who is fairly lateral move from O'Neill.

I am using 92 wins as the baseline of a real competitor because the Red Sox are going to have SoS harder than the average team.

92/162 = 800^2/(800^2+X^2)

X is about 700. If the offense doesn't improve you are looking at the Red Sox only giving up 655 runs.

Now runs against is a little difficult because you want to factor in defense but you can relatively figure out the difference between starters. In order to fill the gap you need to make up about 50-80 runs in pitching. However you lost 2 fWAR in value with Pivetta leaving or about 20 RAR. 1 WAR equals (this is real short hand) about ten runs of RAR. So the two new pitchers need to 5-8 fWAR while covering the 3-4 WAR generated but the Red Sox back end of their rotation (their rotation was not awful). That means to for the pitchers to make up the gap you are looking at 10 WAR ( I know there is some hand waving but the problem is really depends how many IP you get plus defense)

Basically you need about 10 fWAR from the two stud pitchers. The issue is two 5 fWAR pitchers are not available. Burnes 3-4 fWAR starter and Fried is closer to 3-3.5. So they are 6 to 8 fWAR improvement. The other thing that gets sticky is there is only five starting spots. Getting two guys asks questions about who gets starts between the two new guys, Giolito, Houck, Kutter, Bello and I hope they give up on Whitlock.

So looking at Teoscar, Burnes, and Fried you are looking through the math at about 85-88 win team probably closer to 85 win side if Duran comes down to earth and is only slightly better than Devers average season.

It is really really hard to improve 12 wins in an offseason. That is why a guy like Soto who can give 8-10 WAR is so valuable.

*Note for the pitching using fWAR is a bit more predictive towards team win and loss

 

[scottyno]

I am using 92 wins as the baseline of a real competitor because the Red Sox are going to have SoS harder than the average team.

From 2021-2024 4 non "real contenders" made the world series, including 2 champions, so your definition is wildly off. You also left Story and the improved bullpen out of your calculations.

 

[TomRicardo]

From 2021-2024 4 non "real contenders" made the world series, including 2 champions, so your definition is wildly off. You also left Story and the improved bullpen out of your calculations.

Did they make the wild card out of the AL East? I mean look it is cool the Diamondbacks snuck in and had three pitchers catch fire in the playoffs. The Red Sox had a bad team get into the playoffs 2021. It happens. I think if you are going to define as a "real" competitor is a team you can reasonably expect to win a playoff series or two. The exercise is trying to look forward.

Defense and bullpen get way more hand wavy and far less impactful. A healthy season of Trevor Story is at best worth about 8-10 runs which is a huge stretch but his bat is worse than David Hamilton at this point. I suppose you can throw that into the Sunshine and rainbows.

The whole exercise isn't exact. It is short hand to see magnitudes of a player and a team. The Red Sox are not a real competitor even with a couple of changes at this point, that doesn't mean they can't be but they need to bring in the right players and stop dicking around with crap contracts trying to catch fire in a bottle.

 

[simplicio]

Seems like leaving 2B out of your equation entirely is a mistake, given that we had a 45 wrc+ and -2.3 fwar there this year.

 

[scottyno]

Did they make the wild card out of the AL East? I mean look it is cool the Diamondbacks snuck in and had three pitchers catch fire in the playoffs. The Red Sox had a bad team get into the playoffs 2021. It happens. I think if you are going to define as a "real" competitor is a team you can reasonably expect to win a playoff series or two. The exercise is trying to look forward.

Defense and bullpen get way more hand wavy and far less impactful. A healthy season of Trevor Story is at best worth about 8-10 runs which is a huge stretch but his bat is worse than David Hamilton at this point. I suppose you can throw that into the Sunshine and rainbows.

The whole exercise isn't exact. It is short hand to see magnitudes of a player and a team. The Red Sox are not a real competitor even with a couple of changes at this point, that doesn't mean they can't be but they need to bring in the right players and stop dicking around with crap contracts trying to catch fire in a bottle.

Story was worth almost 8-10 runs in the 26 games he played last year, but glad you've decided what a full healthy season is worth.

Also seems odd for you you declare the 2021 Sox a bad team then say that a good team is one that can win a series or 2. I must be misremembering that the 2021 Sox eliminated 2 teams.

 

[Fishy1]

I think we underrate, if anything, how bad our depth was last year. Anybody who actually watched the team last year knows that it was not only the injuries that killed us, but also the depth. There's a starter's load of at-bats here, and a collective on-base percentage of like, .250. In addition to a lot of really bad defense.



The same was true of the bullpen.

It took a while to find people to stabilize the positions when Story, Grissom, and Casas all went down basically at once--and of course there wasn't, you can't carry a starting caliber player to back up every position. Same is true of Slaten, Martin, and Booser all getting hurt. We were basically in possession of a Wild Card spot when that happened.

Does this team still need more top-line players? Absolutely. But 2B was well-below replacement level last year -- we could be talking about a 2-3 win swing or more there if we get good play from Grissom and Campbell there. And Dalbec and Cooper were so bad when they were out there that they set us back hugely, while Dom Smith was basically replacement level. I think we're talking about a 2-3 win swing there with a full season of Casas, as well. Story, I don't know -- if he's out there for a full season, that's a 2-3 win player, I would think, with his defense. I think if those guys had been out there all year--or if Hamilton had just been playing 2B all season--that's a 88-90 win team.

Will that be enough? No. Should we assume better health? No (but we will need to hope for it). We need to add in a top-line starter, better bullpen depth, and a bat to replace Tyler O'Neill...and yeah, if we do, I think we're in business with potential to, if not win the division, secure a wild card spot easily. Good rookie seasons are not a given from Campbell and Anthony, but they would help a lot.

EDIT: I'm also underrating Campbell. Given what he did to the minors, he's as close a lock as you can get to step in and give us at least what Tyler O'Neill gave us, if not better. Covered this in the other thread, but what he's done in the minor leagues puts him in historic company.

 

[TomRicardo]

Story was worth almost 8-10 runs in the 26 games he played last year, but glad you've decided what a full healthy season is worth.

Also seems odd for you you declare the 2021 Sox a bad team then say that a good team is one that can win a series or 2. I must be misremembering that the 2021 Sox eliminated 2 teams.

That is extremely difficult. About 15% of outs in an average game are made by the SS on GB. So if Trevor plays 26 games, it means about 100 PO are from grounders are to SS. That means ~17-25 of those 100 outs were on balls an average fielder couldn't get to. The issue is there isn't going to be enough balls hit out of the range of an average SS for him to save that many runs in that few playing time. Defensive metrics judge is actual range however if you looking at predictive model it is a binary option, out or no out.

DRS don't directly equate to RAR because DRS is taking value of range in account but not volume. Example if someone got a ball completely out of range and got .5 DRS for the play because most of the time it is a hit while another SS got three GB that slightly out of range say a .1 DRS each ball. Player 1 did not save more runs than Player 2 even though Player 1 has a higher DRS. Defensive stats tend to average out over larger sample sets because players will have on average less opportunity to be amazing (most plays are average). Looking at 26 Games does not give you a predictive model of a player's defense using Run value stats. It also isn't additive.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Story was worth almost 8-10 runs in the 26 games he played last year, but glad you've decided what a full healthy season is worth.

Also seems odd for you you declare the 2021 Sox a bad team then say that a good team is one that can win a series or 2. I must be misremembering that the 2021 Sox eliminated 2 teams.

We're a top revenue team in a big market who bangs the joint out even with crazy high ticket prices and buys merchandise like it's going out of style. Squeezing into the playoffs with the #12 payroll every five years and hoping for miracle rolls of the dice shouldn't be the goal. Yeah 2021 was a fun team and miracles occur, but I hope that they have a better plan than that.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

We're a top revenue team in a big market who bangs the joint out even with crazy high ticket prices and buys merchandise like it's going out of style. Squeezing into the playoffs with the #12 payroll every five years and hoping for miracle rolls of the dice shouldn't be the goal. Yeah 2021 was a fun team and miracles occur, but I hope that they have a better plan than that.

But 2021 was so special. Even in the depths of winter of 2025, I will be able to derive warmth for a team that won it all...er, made it to the playoffs. And they weren't really trying.

Screw that. Folks can accept the TJ Maxx of MLB franchises but this ownership is stealing money if they continue to put mid product on the field, hoping that the occasional upstart keeps interest up (it works - look at all the people here citing 2021 as if it was a triumph of the model). We have collective Fenway Syndrome.

 

[lexrageorge]

The premise of the thread, that the Sox have no realistic shot of becoming a playoff team next season, just seems absurd. The 2021 Sox had a Pythag of 88 wins, and outperformed that to win 92. Neither number is indicative of a "bad" team. Turned out that team's performance was not sustainable, and Bloom's inaction, bad trades (Renfroe for JBJ), injuries to Sale and others pretty much sealed the deal on a collapse the following season.

The Orioles went from 83 wins to 101 in 2023. The Royals went from 56 to 86. Seattle went from 68 to 90 in 2 seasons (2020 records are irrelevant, but the Mariners were below 0.500 that season as well). Mets went from 75 to 89. Braves went from 72 to 90 not that long ago. Padres went from 82 to 93. Teams do actually improve organically, and the Sox do have players that should be counted on for organic growth. Is that alone sufficient? Absolutely not. But the offseason has just started in earnest, and the idea we need to start tanking by trading Devers just because we failed to sign Soto seems misplaced.

A discussion on trading Devers would at least make sense if we were going to discuss what the Sox could realistically get for him and from whom.

 

[sezwho]

But 2021 was so special. Even in the depths of winter of 2025, I will be able to derive warmth for a team that won it all...er, made it to the playoffs. And they weren't really trying.

Screw that. Folks can accept the TJ Maxx of MLB franchises but this ownership is stealing money if they continue to put mid product on the field, hoping that the occasional upstart keeps interest up (it works - look at all the people here citing 2021 as if it was a triumph of the model). We have collective Fenway Syndrome.

They can’t compete for the unicorn pitchers (or hitters fwiw) and won’t compete for veteran elite pitching (we’ll see this year) and don’t draft pitching at the top or in great volume. All defensible in isolation, but together leaves a narrow path to victory.

You either mash your way to wins or hope the trade market brings you joy, which is incidentally my biggest dislocation from this board (non Mayo division : ). I believe the prospect cost for a pitcher trade is going to be just as onerous as the FA market. Supply and demand so no free lunches.

They have a shot at playoffs without major additions today, but we all want more. Keep Devers and add pitching.

 

[TomRicardo]

The premise of the thread, that the Sox have no realistic shot of becoming a playoff team next season, just seems absurd. The 2021 Sox had a Pythag of 88 wins, and outperformed that to win 92. Neither number is indicative of a "bad" team. Turned out that team's performance was not sustainable, and Bloom's inaction, bad trades (Renfroe for JBJ), injuries to Sale and others pretty much sealed the deal on a collapse the following season.

Yea because outside of Devers, JD Martinez, and Bogaerts almost the entire team had career years. Renfroe, Dalbec, Iglesias, ERod, and Verdugo all had career years in WAR while Kike and Eovaldi played like 3 WAR better each than their usual season. Also Whitlock was used amazingly and was incredibly valuable (which the Sox then decided to get away from for some reason). It was not a well put together team however it was better than the current Sox.

 

[TomRicardo]

The premise of the thread, that the Sox have no realistic shot of becoming a playoff team next season, just seems absurd. The 2021 Sox had a Pythag of 88 wins, and outperformed that to win 92. Neither number is indicative of a "bad" team. Turned out that team's performance was not sustainable, and Bloom's inaction, bad trades (Renfroe for JBJ), injuries to Sale and others pretty much sealed the deal on a collapse the following season.

The Orioles went from 83 wins to 101 in 2023. The Royals went from 56 to 86. Seattle went from 68 to 90 in 2 seasons (2020 records are irrelevant, but the Mariners were below 0.500 that season as well). Mets went from 75 to 89. Braves went from 72 to 90 not that long ago. Padres went from 82 to 93. Teams do actually improve organically, and the Sox do have players that should be counted on for organic growth. Is that alone sufficient? Absolutely not. But the offseason has just started in earnest, and the idea we need to start tanking by trading Devers just because we failed to sign Soto seems misplaced.

A discussion on trading Devers would at least make sense if we were going to discuss what the Sox could realistically get for him and from whom.

Why? The numbers suggest they are just not there yet. I am not saying teams can't improve but there is usually a reason. Sometimes like 2021 it is luck but you can't just bet on luck when you are building a multi year contender.

Look at the Orioles. What was the difference? Gunnar and Bradish added over 10 WAR between the two of them. The bullpen emerged and Adley had a great second season. If Anthony can have a rookie season like Gunnar which is unlikely but not completely impossible, it would be like signing Soto.

 

[Fishy1]

Why? The numbers suggest they are just not there yet. I am not saying teams can't improve but there is usually a reason. Sometimes like 2021 it is luck but you can't just bet on luck when you are building a multi year contender.

Look at the Orioles. What was the difference? Gunnar and Bradish added over 10 WAR between the two of them. The bullpen emerged and Adley had a great second season. If Anthony can have a rookie season like Gunnar which is unlikely but not completely impossible, it would be like signing Soto.

Don't leave out the possibility that Anthony AND Campbell could have outstanding rookie seasons. It's not probable--but it could happen.

 

[Toe Nash]

The way the playoffs are set up you don't need to get to 92+ wins, you need to get to about 87 and have a good / lucky four weeks. The Dodgers being the best regular season team and winning the WS was an exception and hasn't been the case in most other recent years. You can also have a great team and get bounced in the WC round if you have literally two bad games. I think any team with a spitting chance should be trying to improve and .500 teams with young players coming up DEFINITELY should.

Also, 13 teams had a pythagorean win expectation at least 10 wins different from 2024 in 2023. KC, Oakland, NYY, Cleveland, Detroit and Arizona all improved their pythags by 10 wins or more (KC was +27!) while Minnesota, Atlanta, Chicago, Miami, Toronto, Texas and TB all dropped by -10 or more (Texas -21, TB -26). It's not that odd for teams to make big changes in performance in one season without adding Juan Soto.

 

[joe dokes]

I believe the prospect cost for a pitcher trade is going to be just as onerous as the FA market. Supply and demand so no free lunches.

But (apparently) unlike cold, hard cash, they *do* have prospect capital. And given roster size and only-9-at-a-time limitations, some of that capital can fairly be described as "excess." Whether they "spend" too much in a trade to make the team better will be a festering boil of a debate at the appropriate time, I'm sure.

 

[TomRicardo]

Don't leave out the possibility that Anthony AND Campbell could have outstanding rookie seasons. It's not probable--but it could happen.

But it is very unlikely. It is far more likely they are 1.5-2.5 WAR players and eventually grow in future seasons especially if they don't start the season with Red Sox.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

How about addressing the vibe of his question, rather than handwaving it away.

Is this team in GFIN mode or rebuild mode? If they're in GFIN mode, then why are they spending like they're the Twins? If they're in rebuild mode, why hold onto Devers?

These seem like fair questions, not trolling.

Can OP or anyone name one player in the MLB that's ever been traded 12-18 months into a 8+ year contract worth $100+ million? (I made the parameters extra generous, too!)

 

[TomRicardo]

Can OP or anyone name one player in the MLB that's ever been traded 12-18 months into a 8+ year contract worth $100+ million? (I made the parameters extra generous, too!)

Carl Crawford

 

[scottyno]

DRS don't directly equate to RAR because DRS is taking value of range in account but not volume. Example if someone got a ball completely out of range and got .5 DRS for the play because most of the time it is a hit while another SS got three GB that slightly out of range say a .1 DRS each ball. Player 1 did not save more runs than Player 2 even though Player 1 has a higher DRS. Defensive stats tend to average out over larger sample sets because players will have on average less opportunity to be amazing (most plays are average). Looking at 26 Games does not give you a predictive model of a player's defense using Run value stats. It also isn't additive.

Great, his RAR in 26 games this year was 7

Of course that doesn't mean the defense is 6x additive over a full year, but over the 163 games he has played with the Sox his RAR has been 40, so it seems safe to say that over a full season he would be worth a lot more than 8-10 runs.

 

[Fishy1]

But it is very unlikely. It is far more likely they are 1.5-2.5 WAR players and eventually grow in future seasons especially if they don't start the season with Red Sox.

Of course. I posted the list in the other thread but most of the guys from the last twenty years who did what Campbell did to the minors destroyed the majors leagues in their first 200 games or so: Soto, Schwarber, Bryant, Belt, Alonso, Goldschmidt, etc. Like destroyed.

Anthony I think will take longer to adjust because of the swing and miss in his game (which seems to pop up for 200 PA stretches and then disappear). But I also think he can still be a 2.5 fWAR player even if the bat isn't there yet because the defense will be.

Campbell I think is as sure a bet as there is to come up and rake.

 

[TomRicardo]

Great, his RAR in 26 games this year was 7

Of course that doesn't mean the defense is 6x additive over a full year, but over the 163 games he has played with the Sox his RAR has been 40, so it seems safe to say that over a full season he would be worth a lot more than 8-10 runs.

That would make Trevor Story the best fielding season of all time in DRS. Do you think Trevor Story is the best defensive SS of all time?

Edit - The top DRS for a season of all time is 41. The Fielding Bible had Trevor Story at +2 Total DRS last year.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

Carl Crawford

Nope.

 

[scottyno]

That would make Trevor Story the best fielding season of all time in DRS. Do you think Trevor Story is the best defensive SS of all time?

Andrelton Simmons was regularly worth 40+ RAR in years he hit worse than Story did last year so no I don't think it would. Story was an above average hitter last season, his value wasn't all based on his defense.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Since this thread has TRADE in the title (see what I did there..), I have a simple one: The Royals call and say they are in need of upgrading their OF. They'll give the Sox LHP Cole Ragans and his 4 years of control but in return they need Kutter Craword to replace him in their rotation......and Roman Anthony. What do you do if you're Breslow?

 

[BaseballJones]

Since this thread has TRADE in the title (see what I did there..), I have a simple one: The Royals call and say they are in need of upgrading their OF. They'll give the Sox LHP Cole Ragans and his 4 years of control but in return they need Kutter Craword to replace him in their rotation......and Roman Anthony. What do you do if you're Breslow?

If I'm in that spot, I say yes. I'd ask for a lesser prospect in addition, but I'd probably do it even without that. Four years of control of a 26-year old true ace level left-handed SP, when that's the team's biggest need? Yes I do that even though the price is steep. Anthony should only be traded for young, cost-controlled ace pitchers, but that's exactly what Ragans is.

 

[TomRicardo]

Since this thread has TRADE in the title (see what I did there..), I have a simple one: The Royals call and say they are in need of upgrading their OF. They'll give the Sox LHP Cole Ragans and his 4 years of control but in return they need Kutter Craword to replace him in their rotation......and Roman Anthony. What do you do if you're Breslow?

Why would the Royals trade Cole Ragans?

 

[bosox1534]

Why would the Royals trade Cole Ragans?

The same reason the Red Sox should trade Devers, there is none.

 

[24Dewey@Cooperstown]

Devers (28) is two years older than Soto, with their birthdays on consecutive days. Is there any doubt that if he was a free agent he'd be paid WAY more than his current contract?

He's a homegrown player who has consistently put up very good offensive numbers and who is in the prime age range of his career just as the Sox are finally ready to be competitive. Build around him with the understanding that he can move to DH sometime in the future.

Devers should never again be allowed to sport a 3rd or 1st baseman’s mitt.

Daubach?

I was wondering about that….. Did they make him keep his walker outside the foul lines?

 

[YTF]

Devers should never again be allowed to sport a 3rd or 1st baseman’s mitt.

I was wondering about that….. Did they make him keep his walker outside the foul lines?

What can you tell us about him as a defender at 1B?

 

[Cassvt2023]

Why would the Royals trade Cole Ragans?

They probably wouldn't. BUT, if they think Crawford could give them 80% of what Ragans could, in that ballpark with his similar years of control and peripherals, and they think that Anthony would be a big upgrade in an OF featuring the likes of Isbel, Melendez, Renfroe and Drew Waters, maybe it does indeed get them closer to where they're trying to go?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

What can you tell us about him as a defender at 1B?

Seems a little extreme.... but I am a little wary of the "just move him to 1B!!!" solution to all that ails the Sox infield defense. I don't know if he'd be an improvement over Casas. Casas, 1- was still a work in progress and seemed to be noticeably getting much better. 2- is 5 to 6" taller than Devers. It definitely helps. It's not the end-all of 1B defensive skills, but it helps having that extra height, not to even mention Casas apparently longer wingspan (is it just me or does Devers seem to have short arms????... the freak!!!). Add in that it's just a new position. It's supposedly a downturn on the defensive spectrum but that doesn't mean it actually is. Just the value of it.
The longer answer here is... Casas and Devers represent likely a bad corner IF position but also an elite hitting combination. There's a position open and available players to fill in for one of them in some sort of creative rotation- alleviating some of that bad defense while keeping their offensive production on a regular basis.
Don't overthink it or do a bunch of lateral moves to barely --- maybe.. improve the team under the assumption that 1B is an easy position and you can just toss anyone there.

Also- yes, I know this isn't the "Time to Move Devers to 1B" thread. It's the "Trade Devers" thread..... which isn't really worth discussing as it seems like it's basically Troll Level EEI caller type of frustration based posting.

 

[pdub]

If the Royals are trading Ragans (not happening) because they want to rebuild further, why aren't they asking for Bello instead of Crawford? Ragans is already young and good, if I'm trading him then I'm looking to go as young as possible in return.

 

[Cassvt2023]

If the Royals are trading Ragans (not happening) because they want to rebuild further, why aren't they asking for Bello instead of Crawford? Ragans is already young and good, if I'm trading him then I'm looking to go as young as possible in return.

Good point. I would trade Bello and Anthony for Ragans. It'd be hard, but I'd do it.