Time-killing Challenge: HOF Peak Team v. the Bright Shiners Peak-ish Team

Rovin Romine

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With David Ortiz being elected to the Hall of Fame on the first ballot, it's good to remember that baseball is filled with such high and short-lived peaks, transcendent performances from amazing players. These last are the Achilles of the game, shining brightly for their moment.

We've done various best HOF and best Red Sox squads over the years. Heck, we've even assembled teams based on all-noun and verb player-names. I think it might be fun to assemble two teams.

The first team would be made up of HOF players - but specifically the peak season of that player, as they played the position. So for example, there are many HOFs who DHed later in their careers. But there are only so many top DH seasons from HOFs. Interestingly, Edgar Martinez and David Ortiz each had 5 seasons with an OPS above 1.000. I would say the best are Edgar Martinez's 1995, and David Ortiz's 2007. I will pick:

DH, David Ortiz, 2007 .332, .445, .621, 1.066. (341TB)

The second team would be made up of non-HOF players. Again, specific peak seasons for that player as the played the positions. But this will be far trickier (hence the time-killer) to see how those brief-but-bright shiners stack up against the HOF team - let's take their second best season. This will screen out some fluke seasons (Ahem, Mr. Anderson, Mr. Ellsbury) and will certainly be trickier. But it's supposed to be a time-killer. Who can we find?

For DH:
Don Baylor's 1983 with the Yanks?
Travis Hafner's 2005 with Cleveland?
Harold Baines'. . .(whoops)
Um. . .Chili Davis's 1995 with the Angels?


And at the end of the day, how close do we think those single-season teams will be?

I suspect it will be surprisingly close.


HOF
SP:
SP:
SP:
SP:
SP:
RP:
RP:
RP:
RP:

C:
1B:
2B:
3B:
SS:
OF:
OF:
OF:
DH: David Ortiz, 2007 .332, .445, .621, 1.066. (341TB)


Bright Shiners
SP: Brett Saberhagen, 1985 20-6, ERA 2.87, K 158, BB 38, WHIP 1.015. Bref WAR: 7.1
SP:
SP:
SP:
SP:
RP:
RP:
RP:
RP:

C:
1B:
2B:
3B:
SS:
OF:
OF:
OF:
DH:
 

Rovin Romine

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We can take nominations, or you can do your own - whatever you want.

HOF - best season at the position.
Bright Shiners - second best season at the position.
 

jezza1918

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Question/clarification - For the Bright Shiners aka non-HOFers, how should we deal with players from the steroids ERA like Bonds & Clemens? Im just thinking that if they are included it is basically a de-factor HOF team anyway. At least stat wise...just food for thought. Either way I love the exercise as I just spent 5 solid minutes scouring Ichiro's BBREF page.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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One question. How do we want to define best/second best season? Should we establish a standard (WAR, OPS+/ERA+, etc) or just go by general feel/opinion?
 

Mystic Merlin

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Curt Schilling in 2002; I am identifying 2001 as his best season based on his 8.8 WAR (to a 8.6 WAR in 2002). Either way, he’s a strong candidate for a SP spot.

2002 season: 23-7, 3.23 ERA, 316 K, 33 BB, 9.58 K/BB, 0.968 WHIP, 8.6 WAR
 

coremiller

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Why do HOFers get their best season while Bright Shiners only get their second best season? That seems like an unlevel playing field.

Also what do we do with active or recently retired players, who aren't in the HOF only because they aren't yet eligible? There are some monster Pujols or Trout seasons, for example.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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The second team would be made up of non-HOF players. Again, specific peak seasons for that player as the played the positions. But this will be far trickier (hence the time-killer) to see how those brief-but-bright shiners stack up against the HOF team - let's take their second best season. This will screen out some fluke seasons (Ahem, Mr. Anderson, Mr. Ellsbury) and will certainly be trickier. But it's supposed to be a time-killer. Who can we find?
Seems like the obvious place to start would be the second best seasons of two time MVPs who are not in the HOF.

Roger Maris, 1960 - 98 runs, 39 HRs, 112 RBIs (league leader), .283/.371/581, Gold Glove, MVP
Dale Murphy, 1982 - 113 runs, 36 HRs, 109 RBIs (league leader), .281/.378/.507, Gold Glove, MVP
Juan Gonzalez, 1996 - 89 runs, 47 HRs, 144 RBIs, .314/.368/.643, MVP
 
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Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Why do HOFers get their best season while Bright Shiners only get their second best season? That seems like an unlevel playing field.
Yeah, I don't get that either. There are many more potential Bright Shiners but HOFers are by definition great players so I don't see the reason for skewing the playing field by taking the second best season of one group and the best season of the other.
 

wiffleballhero

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In the simulacrum
Hack Wilson's famous 1930 season
CF

[TH]1930[/TH]
. . G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
30 CHC NL 155 709 585 146 208 35 6 56 191 3 3 105 84 .356 .454 .723 1.177 177




Dale Murphy's 1985 (which seems about the same as a couple of his other seasons, but was essentially all at CF)
[TH]1985[/TH]
29 ATL NL 162 712 616 118 185 32 2 37 111 10 3 90 141 .300 .388 .539 .927 152 332 14 1 0 5 15


Edited for stat lines and murphy
 
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tims4wins

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Why do HOFers get their best season while Bright Shiners only get their second best season? That seems like an unlevel playing field.
I think it's to prove that they are still on mostly equal footing, and that it's the "other" seasons that make a HoF'er, not their best 1-2.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I think it's to prove that they are still on mostly equal footing, and that it's the "other" seasons that make a HoF'er, not their best 1-2.
Exactly. I think the idea spawned out of a discussion in the HOF thread about guys with high but short-lived peaks who got little to no HOF attention. Like would you take Tim Lincecum's second best season (2008) or Don Sutton's best season (1972), but a whole roster of such comparisons.
 

BaseballJones

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Tons of great seasons to choose from just from elite players not in the HOF like Clemens, ARod, Bonds, Palmeiro (not on the same level as these other guys but still a monster), Sosa, McGwire, Shoeless Joe, Rolen, Edmonds, Andruw Jones, Dale Murphy, Evans, Oliva, Dave Parker, Ichiro, Schilling, Tiant, Kevin Brown, Hershiser, Lincecum, Guidry, Lolich, Quisenberry, Henke, Wetteland, Papelbon, Percival, Koji, KRod, Mookie, Trout.... Tons of incredible seasons from among this group.
 

tims4wins

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For the purposes of this discussion I think the PED guys and Schilling should be excluded (plus not yet eligible players), but YMMV. Those guys aren't not in because their stats weren't good enough.
 

TheGazelle

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Two SP nominations for the non-HOF team:

Johan Santana, 2006: 19-6, 2.77 ERA, 245K, 47BB, .997 WHIP, 7.2 BRef WAR (2d best season by WAR)

Tim Lincecum, 2009: 15-7, 2.48 ERA, 261K, 68BB, 1.047 WHIP, 7.4 BRef WAR (2d best season by WAR)

I think Lincecum is one of the guys who got this discussing going, so I think he should be there. Johan is a similar guy - both won multiple Cy Youngs but never got any HOF traction.
 

BaseballJones

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Guidry's 1979 season (if we have to stick to the "second best season" rule):

18-8, 2.78 era, 201 k, 1.16 whip, 7.7 k/9, 6.5 bWAR

Not too shabby. Obviously his '78 season was off the charts phenomenal but I guess we aren't allowed to use their best seasons.
 

Rovin Romine

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Question/clarification - For the Bright Shiners aka non-HOFers, how should we deal with players from the steroids ERA like Bonds & Clemens? Im just thinking that if they are included it is basically a de-factor HOF team anyway. At least stat wise...just food for thought. Either way I love the exercise as I just spent 5 solid minutes scouring Ichiro's BBREF page.
As Tim4wins suggests, I think we can leave Bonds, Arod, and Clemens off the actual roster for various reasons. But perhaps we should list their second best seasons as an alternate squad.


One question. How do we want to define best/second best season? Should we establish a standard (WAR, OPS+/ERA+, etc) or just go by general feel/opinion?
I had thought feel/opinion at first, but WAR/OPS+/ERA+ are all good ways to go. They'd certainly help in tie-breakers in terms of putting players on the team.


Why do HOFers get their best season while Bright Shiners only get their second best season? That seems like an unlevel playing field.

Also what do we do with active or recently retired players, who aren't in the HOF only because they aren't yet eligible? There are some monster Pujols or Trout seasons, for example.
As others pointed out, there are probably enough fluke single-seasons in baseball to fill a roster. Those are kind of marvelous in their own right, but going with the second-best does two things: 1) screens out some pure-fluke seasons, and 2) makes the exercise far more interesting/challenging in identifying short-lived excellence.

Let's not consider Active or recently retired players. We need a definitive "in the Hall or out" group.
 

thehitcat

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Can we do a third team with just the single fluke seasons? Ellsbury or Anderson in CF for example? Might be a fun add to the idea.
 

coremiller

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As others pointed out, there are probably enough fluke single-seasons in baseball to fill a roster. Those are kind of marvelous in their own right, but going with the second-best does two things: 1) screens out some pure-fluke seasons, and 2) makes the exercise far more interesting/challenging in identifying short-lived excellence.

Let's not consider Active or recently retired players. We need a definitive "in the Hall or out" group.
I get wanting to avoid fluke seasons, but then shouldn't we also be using the HOFers' second-best seasons to have an apples-to-apples comparison?
 

Rovin Romine

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HOF: the best actual season, at the actual position.

Bright Shiners: the second best season of a player, at the actual position. WAR/OPS+/ERA+ all useful for comparisons of nominees. No active or recently retired players: PED passes will form an alternate squad of second-best seasons.

I'm just going to put in nominees for now. (Or someone can do that for me!!! Just copy the format) and we can decide who to strike.

HOF
SP:
SP:
SP:
SP:
SP:
RP:
RP:
RP:
RP:

C:
1B:
2B:
3B:
SS:
OF:
OF:
OF:
DH: David Ortiz, 2007 .332, .445, .621, 1.066. (341TB)


Bright Shiners
SP: Brett Saberhagen, 1985: 20-6, ERA 2.87, K 158, BB 38, WHIP 1.015. Bref WAR: 7.1
SP: Curt Schilling, 2002: 23-7, 3.23 ERA, 316 K, 33 BB, 9.58 K/BB, 0.968 WHIP, 8.6 WAR
SP:Johan Santana, 2006: 19-6, 2.77 ERA, 245K, 47BB, .997 WHIP, 7.2 BRef WAR (2d best season by WAR)
SP: Tim Lincecum, 2009: 15-7, 2.48 ERA, 261K, 68BB, 1.047 WHIP, 7.4 BRef WAR (2d best season by WAR)
SP: Ron Guidry's 1979: 18-8, 2.78 era, 201 k, 1.16 whip, 7.7 k/9, 6.5 bWAR
SP:
RP:
RP:
RP:
RP:

C:
1B:
2B:
3B:
SS:
OF: Albert Belle, 1995: 121 runs, 50 HR, 126 RB, .317/.401/.690, Douchenozzle Extraordinare
OF: Roger Maris, 1960: 98 runs, 39 HRs, 112 RBIs (league leader), .283/.371/581, Gold Glove, MVP
OF: Dale Murphy, 1982: 113 runs, 36 HRs, 109 RBIs (league leader), .281/.378/.507, Gold Glove, MVP
OF: Juan Gonzalez, 1996: 89 runs, 47 HRs, 144 RBIs, .314/.368/.643, MVP
OF:
OF:
DH:
 

Rovin Romine

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Can we do a third team with just the single fluke seasons? Ellsbury or Anderson in CF for example? Might be a fun add to the idea.
Sure, but let's finish what we have going first. (Those are easier too.)


I get wanting to avoid fluke seasons, but then shouldn't we also be using the HOFers' second-best seasons to have an apples-to-apples comparison?
Since we only have one HOFer's stats at the moment (for David Fucking Ortiz! - one day I will get tired of saying that, but not soon) we could make this switch.

What do you all think?

(PS: we'd still have to ID the best HOF season at that position, then take the second best for the exercise. But part of the point was to compare a HOF best season with an also-ran's second best season to see if there was a big spread or not.)
 
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Leather

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I agree is seems unfair to say "bright shiners" don't get to use their best season, but maybe we can do a minimum career WAR or something (Say, 30) to avoid including the true "flukes."

I mean is Dwight Gooden a fluke? I don't think so. Sure his 1985 is insane but he also finished top 5 in CY voting 4 other times.
 

coremiller

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Pitchers are probably the easiest, because there are a lot of guys who burned bright but couldn't stay healthy, but here's another nomination:

Kevin Brown, 1996 or 1998 (whichever people think is the second best):
1996: 233 IP, 1.89 ERA, 215 ERA+, 2.88 FIP, 159Ks, 33B. 0.944 WHIP, 7.9 bWAR
1998: 257 IP, 2.39 ERA, 164 ERA+, 2.23 FIP, 257Ks, 49 BBs, 1.066 WHIP, 8.6 bWAR
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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If I'm understanding this right-using only the second best season

Dave Parker, 1978 102 runs, 30 HRs, 117 RBIs, .334/.394/.585, Gold Glove, MVP 7.0 WAR (position players).
 

Rovin Romine

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If I'm understanding this right-using only the second best season

Dave Parker, 1978 102 runs, 30 HRs, 117 RBIs, .334/.394/.585, Gold Glove, MVP 7.0 WAR (position players).
You probably are, but we need the second-best season at a position.

So if the above stat line is for Dave Parker as an OF, he must have also had one better season as an OF.

Caveat: If one or more seasons are almost even split between multiple positions, use your best judgment. But try not to "jump" positions. So, (hypothetically) if Parker's best offensive season was as an outfielder, and his second best offensive season was as a DH, it would not count.
 

coremiller

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Todd Helton, 1B. 2000 was clearly his best, so let's use 2004:

.347/.469/.620, 1.088 OPS, 165 OPS+, good fielding, 8.3 WAR

Fred Lynn, CF. 1979 was his best, so we'll use 1975:

.331/.406/.566, .967 OPS, 162 OPS+, good CF defense, 7.4 bWAR, ROY+MVP

Dick Allen has a lot of potential seasons (1964, 1966, 1972). By 1972, he was playing 1B, so we'll use 1966 as his 2nd-best 3B season (behind 1964):

.317/.396/.632, 1.027 OPS, 181 OPS+, 7.5 bWAR.

By the way, I think the HOF team is going to cream the Bright Shiners. There are so many HOFers who have multiple 8+, or even multiple 10+, WAR seasons. There are very few Bright Shiners who got over 8 WAR more than once.
 

BuellMiller

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Obviously a bias here, but by bWAR, the second best seasons for Nomar and Mo were both 1998:
Nomar: .323, .362, .584, 140 OPS+, 35 hrs, 122, rbi, 7.1 WAR
Mo: .337/.402/.591, 153 OPS+ 40 hrs, 115 rbi, 5.6 WAR
 

Ale Xander

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SS Bright Shiner 1995 Nomar
.357/.418/.603/1.022 27 HR 104 RBI, 7.5 WAR

(Best was 2000 8.2 WAR, .372, 1.033)
 

BuellMiller

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(or if you're going to go by bWAR, Youkilis's 2008 is his 2nd best season, and had a higher WAR than Mo (of course, both are less than Helton's season that coremiller mentioned).
Youkilis: .312/.390/.569, 144 OPS+, 29 hr, 115 rbi, 6.3 WAR
And while we're on the 2008 Red Sox, his MVP season was also Pedroia's 2nd best season by WAR:
Pedroia: .326/.376/.493, 123 OPS+, 17 hr, 83 rbi, 7.0 WAR
 

Ale Xander

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I mean we should take Barry for LF, but . . .

LF Bright Shiner 2002 Manny Ramirez

.349/.450/.647/1.097, 184 OPS+, 6.0 WAR

best was 1999, 44 HR 165 RBI, 7.3 WAR

But really he has like 5 seasons that could be best, because WAR isn't matching up with traditional, old-timey, stats very good.
 
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coremiller

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Like, compare these to some of the second best seasons of top HOFers:

Mickey Mantle, CF. His 1956-57 are basically equal, so we'll use 1956:

.353/.464./705, 1.169 OPS, 210 OPS+, 52 HR, 130 RBI, triple crown, MVP, 11.2 bWAR (holy crap!)

Ted Williams, LF. Pick one of 1941/42/46. Let's go with 1941 (ranked 3rd by bWAR):

.406/.553/.735, 1.287 OPS, 231 OPS+, 10.4 bWAR.

Babe Ruth, RF. His best season by bWAR was 1923, so we'll use his ludicrous 1921 here:

.378/.512/.846, 1.359 OPS, 239 OPS+, 59 HRs, 168 RBI, 177 R, 12.9 bWAR.

This is not going to be close.
 

Ale Xander

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1B Bright Shiner Mo Vaughn 1998

.337/.402/.591/.993 40 HR, 115 RBI 5.6 WAR

Mo's MVP season was his 3rd or 4th best it seems
 

BuellMiller

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Like, compare these to some of the second best seasons of top HOFers:

Mickey Mantle, CF. His 1956-57 are basically equal, so we'll use 1956:

.353/.464./705, 1.169 OPS, 210 OPS+, 52 HR, 130 RBI, triple crown, MVP, 11.2 bWAR (holy crap!)

Ted Williams, LF. Pick one of 1941/42/46. Let's go with 1941 (ranked 3rd by bWAR):

.406/.553/.735, 1.287 OPS, 231 OPS+, 10.4 bWAR.

Babe Ruth, RF. His best season by bWAR was 1923, so we'll use his ludicrous 1921 here:

.378/.512/.846, 1.359 OPS, 239 OPS+, 59 HRs, 168 RBI, 177 R, 12.9 bWAR.

This is not going to be close.
Maybe we should make a team of the best seasons of the worst Hall of Famers and see how badly they match up. Players like Lloyd Waner (4.3 WAR in 1932), Baines (2.9 if you go by his best season as a primary DH in 1991), or Mazeroski (4.9 WAR in 1958), etc.
The Veteran's Committee Specials.
 

Bergs

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There are two things for certain with this methodology: the HoF team will destroy the "Bright Shiners," and @Rovin Romine will blame Alex Cora when they lose.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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You probably are, but we need the second-best season at a position.

So if the above stat line is for Dave Parker as an OF, he must have also had one better season as an OF.

Caveat: If one or more seasons are almost even split between multiple positions, use your best judgment. But try not to "jump" positions. So, (hypothetically) if Parker's best offensive season was as an outfielder, and his second best offensive season was as a DH, it would not count.
correct-I used BRef WAR-his 1977 was 7.4. Both were as an outfielder.

Jesus, Nomar's first four years were absolutely bonkers, then the wrist injury, then 2002 and 2003 were really good seasons for anyone not named Nomar.
 
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Bergs

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correct-I used BRef WAR-his 1977 was 7.4. Both were as an outfielder.

Jesus, Nomar's first four years were absolutely bonkers, then the wrist injury, then 2002 and 2003 were really good seasons for anyone not named Nomar.
Yeah, you can pick any one of 3 years for Nomar's 2nd best, and he's tough to beat.
 

Rovin Romine

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Progress. . .and very fine work on SP and the OF.

1) I know this is a Red Sox board but. . .this team is looking a hair parochial. We can do better than this (though Nomar will be tough to displace). I'm sure there's some low hanging fruit out there in 1990s first basemen. Galaraga and guys like that?

2) Since only CoreMiller seems to want the second-best HOF season, we'll stick with the original plan. Core - you can probably easily assemble a list of second-best seasons from the main list, which I'll add if you like.

3) If you're going to nominate anymore Bright Shining outfielders make sure they'll crack the top 3 or 4.

4) Unfortunately, Todd Helton and Manny Ramirez are still being voted on for the HOF and thus do not qualify for either team.

5) I wouldn't get hung up on WAR. It's fine for making a show.

6) I know the fluke rule isn't perfect, but one exception is a floodgate to Anderson and Ellsbury:
I mean is Dwight Gooden a fluke? I don't think so. Sure his 1985 is insane but he also finished top 5 in CY voting 4 other times.
That said, make your argument and post the stats you think should be included:

***

HOF: the best actual season, at the actual position.

Bright Shiners: the second best season of a player, at the actual position. WAR/OPS+/ERA+ all useful for comparisons of nominees. No active or recently retired players: PED passes will form an alternate squad of second-best seasons.

I'm just going to put in nominees for now. (Or someone can do that for me!!! Just copy the format) and we can decide who to strike.

HOF
SP:
SP:
SP:
SP:
SP:
RP:
RP:
RP:
RP:

C:
1B:
2B:
3B:
SS:
OF: Hack Wilson, 1930: .356, .454, .723, 1.177. 56 HR, 191 RBI. 7.4 bWAR
OF:
OF:
DH: David Ortiz, 2007 .332, .445, .621, 1.066. (341TB) 6.4 bWAR


Bright Shiners
SP: Brett Saberhagen, 1985: 20-6, ERA 2.87, K 158, BB 38, WHIP 1.015. 7.1 bWAR
SP: Curt Schilling, 2002: 23-7, 3.23 ERA, 316 K, 33 BB, 9.58 K/BB, 0.968 WHIP, 8.6 WAR
SP: Johan Santana, 2006: 19-6, 2.77 ERA, 245K, 47BB, .997 WHIP, 7.2 BRef WAR (2d best season by WAR)
SP: Tim Lincecum, 2009: 15-7, 2.48 ERA, 261K, 68BB, 1.047 WHIP, 7.4 BRef WAR (2d best season by WAR)
SP: Ron Guidry, 1979: 18-8, 2.78 era, 201 k, 1.16 whip, 7.7 k/9, 6.5 bWAR
SP: Kevin Brown, 1996: 233 IP, 1.89 ERA, 215 ERA+, 2.88 FIP, 159Ks, 33B. 0.944 WHIP, 7.9 bWAR

RP: 2002 Eric Gagne, 2002: 52 SV, 1.97 ERA, 180 FIP, 0.862 WHIP 2.9 WAR4th in Cy, 12th in MVP
RP:
RP:
RP:

C:
1B: Mo Vaughn, 1998: 337/.402/.591, 153 OPS+ 40 hrs, 115 rbi, 5.6 WAR
2B: Dustin Pedroia, 1998: .326/.376/.493, 123 OPS+, 17 hr, 83 rbi, 7.0 WAR
3B: Dick Allen, 1966: .317/.396/.632, 1.027 OPS, 181 OPS+, 7.5 bWAR
SS: Nomar, 1995: .357/.418/.603/1.022 27 HR 104 RBI, 7.5 WAR

OF: Roger Maris, 1960: 98 runs, 39 HRs, 112 RBIs (league leader), .283/.371/581, Gold Glove, MVP 7.5 bWAR (his highest by WAR)
OF: Fred Lynn, 1979: .331/.406/.566, .967 OPS, 162 OPS+, good CF defense, 7.4 bWAR, ROY+MVP
OF: Dave Parker, 1978: 102 runs, 30 HRs, 117 RBIs, .334/.394/.585, Gold Glove, MVP 7.0 WAR
OF: Albert Belle, 1995: 121 runs, 50 HR, 126 RB, .317/.401/.690, Douchenozzle Extraordinare, 7.0 bWAR
OF: Dale Murphy, 1982: 113 runs, 36 HRs, 109 RBIs (league leader), .281/.378/.507, Gold Glove, MVP 6.1 bWar (4th best season)
OF: Juan Gonzalez, 1996: 89 runs, 47 HRs, 144 RBIs, .314/.368/.643, MVP 3.8 bWAR (5th best season)

DH: Travis "Pronk" Hafner, 2005: .305/.408/.595/1.003 168 OPS+ 5.4 WAR (5th MVP voting)
 
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jezza1918

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Hafner for Bright Shiners DH? either 05 or 06 season.
05 - 1.003 OPS, 33 homers, 108 rbis, 5.4 WAR (5th MVP voting)
06 - 1.097 OPS (lead league), 42 homers, 117 rbis, 5.9 WAR (8th MVP voting).

I guess typing it out 05 was pretty clearly his 2nd best season, just the MVP voting difference caught my eye. I also think the fact that his nickname was "Pronk" is added value.
 

Ale Xander

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Bright Shiners

DH Travis Hafner 2005

.305/.408/.595/1.003 168 OPS+ 3.4 WAR

edit:

dammit jezza
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
72,429
Bright Shiners RP candidate

2002 Eric Gagne
2.9 WAR
52 SV, 1.97 ERA, 180 FIP, 0.862 WHIP
4th in Cy, 12th in MVP