Ties, ties, everywhere are ties?

[budcrew08]

https://www.mlb.com/news/american-league-wild-card-tiebreakers-explained

With apologies to Tesla.

Don’t look at the last one, the only one without the Sox.

 

[Fratboy]

I'm Captain Chaos here, and a four-way tie at 91-71 would be absolutely incredible.

 

[dynomite]

I'm Captain Chaos here, and a four-way tie at 91-71 would be absolutely incredible.

I agree. I like simple pleasures, like baseball on TV and lollipops in my mouth. That's just me.

I've seen the Sox win 4 World Series this century. I'm happy to root for the chaos of Wild Card ties. I think this is the most likely scenario:

Yankees get 1st Wild Card with 93 wins, 3-way tie for 2nd Wild Card with 91 Wins
Yankees go 2-1; Red Sox go 2-1; Mariners go 2-1; Blue Jays go 3-0.
What happens next: In this example, the Yankees nail down the top Wild Card spot and get to host the AL Wild Card Game. But we'd need two tiebreaker games to determine their opponent.

The Red Sox went 14-12 against the Mariners and Blue Jays, while the Mariners went 7-6 against the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Those are identical winning percentages, so the Red Sox win out by virtue of their 4-3 showing against Seattle and get to choose an A, B or C designation first. The Mariners choose next, and the Blue Jays get whatever is left over.

Club A hosts Club B on Monday. The winner of that game then hosts Club C on Tuesday to determine who travels to face the Yankees in the AL Wild Card Game, which would have to be pushed back. Here, the choice for the Red Sox would come down to having to win twice at home (as Club A) or taking your chances on one game as the rested road team against the A-B winner (as Club C).

 

[Rovin Romine]

I'm Captain Chaos here, and a four-way tie at 91-71 would be absolutely incredible.

Part of me thinks if we're not going to get past the WC game, it ought to be awkward and painful for as many clubs as it can possibly be.

 

[Fratboy]

Part of me thinks if we're not going to get past the WC game, it ought to be awkward and painful for as many clubs as it can possibly be.

MOAR BEISBOL is always the way to go, especially if it forces the networks to scramble at the last minute for coverage.

 

[CR67dream]

With apologies to Tesla.

Tesla? Oh fuck I'm old....

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9lh7lqZojc

 

[cannonball 1729]

By the way...I feel like now's a good time to point out that since Rob Manfred is all-in on playoff expansion....

If the MLB's 16-team playoff plan were in place right now, we would have

- All eight spots clinched in the AL (the division winners, WC contenders, and Oakland), with those teams having nothing to play for except seeding, and
- Seven of eight spots clinched in the NL (division winners, WC leaders, Reds, and Phillies), with San Diego and the Mets fighting in the vaunted Battle Of Two Sub-.500 Teams That Stopped Winning Games Around Labor Day.

If the MLB's 14-team playoff plan were in place right now (1 seed gets a bye, 2-7 play the WC round, higher seeds get to choose their opponent), we would have

- Six of seven spots clinched in the AL, with Toronto and the fading Oakland squad in play for the seventh seed with a magic number of 1
- Six of seven playoff teams set in the NL, but LA and SF still fighting for the number 1 seed (with magic number 2) and Philly and the sleepwalking San Diego team in play for the seventh seed (with a magic number of 1).

So kind of like the current September setup but with most of the interesting races replaced by less interesting races. Feel the excitement!

 

[scottyno]

Ironically a 3 way tie for the 2nd spot is probably better for the Sox than a 2 way tie for the 2nd spot as it gives the Sox an extra rest day and forces the other 2 teams to burn their pitchers.

 

[Earthbound64]

Tesla? Oh fuck I'm old....

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9lh7lqZojc

This is what I was expecting.
What even is going on?

 

[dhellers]

Tb benefits if all wc prospects have to play an extra game. Hence, if they sweep mfys, and assume sox and Seattle take 2 of 3, and Toronto sweeps. 4 way tie, so whoever makes it out of the wc will be operating with a worn bullpen and a 4th starter

But if bos and Seattl sweep, they will want mfys to take 1 game... For a 3 way tie.

All games start on Sunday at same time,!

 

[Earthbound64]

All games start on Sunday at same time,!

MLB has been doing that intentionally for the past decade+.
Just one of their many attempts to draw in the mythical "Person who isn't a fan of Baseball / wouldn't watch otherwise, but will because of [x]!"

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

MLB has been doing that intentionally for the past decade+.
Just one of their many attempts to draw in the mythical "Person who isn't a fan of Baseball / wouldn't watch otherwise, but will because of [x]!"

I thought it was more of a “so no late teams get the benefit of knowing what their rivals did and can rest their Ace for the WC game while the early team doesn’t get that benefit“ kind of thing. Because that mythical non baseball fan is watching football no matter what. Or golf. Or cornhole.

 

[ookami7m]

That’s exactly what it is. This started after the 2011 season ending

 

[BaseballJones]

Pitching matchups the rest of the weekend...

Sat
TB (Shane Baz) at NY (Jordan Montgomery)
Bos (undecided) at Was (Josiah Gray)
Bal (John Means) at Tor (Alek Manoah)
LAA (Jhonathan Diaz) at Sea (Chris Flexen)

Sun
TB (Michael Wacha) at NY (undecided)
Bos (Chris Sale) at Was (undecided)
Bal (Bruce Zimmerman) at Tor (Hyun Jin Ryu)
LAA (undecided) at Sea (Tyler Anderson)

Undecided is getting a LOT of work the next couple of days.

You have to figure/hope that Sale will give the Sox a good start on Sunday. So today is key. Gray currently sports a 5.72 era and 1.39 whip. Teams have an .833 ops against him. He's relatively easy to hit and hit hard. The offense needs to show up today.

Baltimore at least has their best starter going today in Means (3.32 era, 1.00 whip). Amazingly, he hasn't faced Toronto yet this year. He's been really good in the month of September. Let's hope he has one more excellent start in him.

Shane Baz is another one of Tampa's electric young pitchers. Just 10.2 ip so far but a 1.69 era and 14 k in those 10.2 innings. He can deal, and he beat Toronto in his first start, allowing just 2 runs in 5 innings. How does Tampa keep getting these guys? It's a never-ending stream of incredible young pitching.

Montgomery has faced TB five times this year, with mixed results. Early in the year he faced them twice and got hit pretty hard (8 runs in 11 innings), but the last three times out he's dominated the Rays (17.1 ip, 12 h, 2 er). So this will be a very interesting matchup today.

Bottom line for the Sox: win today and get it to Sale tomorrow.

 

[greek_gawd_of_walks]

Between having Means today, Zimmermann (not amazing, but Baltimore good) tomorrow and the fact that Ryu has been awful in his last nine starts (7.90 ERA, 9 HRs in 41 innings), Baltimore has a shot at stealing one of the remaining two games.

The Sox would love open this game up big early. I mean, 6-8 runs by the third inning. If that happens, Cora could lift Houck (presuming he's the choice to take the hill) quickly and maybe have him available in some capacity for a potential WC game. Maybe that's the plan with Houck regardless of the score, given that it's been almost three weeks since his last start.

 

[dynomite]

The Sox would love open this game up big early. I mean, 6-8 runs by the third inning. If that happens, Cora could lift Houck (presuming he's the choice to take the hill) quickly and maybe have him available in some capacity for a potential WC game. Maybe that's the plan with Houck regardless of the score, given that it's been almost three weeks since his last start.

Houck is also on 3 days rest from throwing 2 IP on 9/28 and as you say isn’t stretched out. 3 IP is probably his limit today.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Maybe see Seabold?

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Whitlock threw a bullpen yesterday. Can he pitch Sunday?

 

[dynomite]

Maybe see Seabold?

I think piggybacking with Perez is more likely, both because I’d trust him more (I guess?), plus saving Seabold in the unlikely event that the Sox win today and the Mariners and Jays lose, clinching a Wild Card. You probably don’t burn Sale tomorrow in that case and need someone to eat innings.

Edit: And to be honest, today is one of the situations where I think the Rays opener strategy would make a lot of sense. Maybe this is the idea — have Houck face Soto/Bell in the 1st/2nd inning and then hope to get 3-4 innings from Perez when he only has to face them once?

 

[jayhoz]

In the ultimate chaos scenario of a 4 way tie, the Sox pick home field and the Jays pick home field. The Yankees then pick their opponent. Who do the Yankees choose? There's going to be a bunch of media pressure for them to pick the their key rival regardless of whether that gives them the best chance to win.

 

[NYCSox]

Now that it's over as far as stopping the MFYs with the Mariners somehow getting rolled last night the best course of action is eliminating Jays and Mariners tonight so it's just Sale and Eovaldi versus MFYs and none of the jokers in the pen.

 

[brandonchristensen]

If the Sox win today and all but guarantee another game, do they hold Sale back?

 

[BaseballJones]

If the Sox win today and all but guarantee another game, do they hold Sale back?

I don’t think so, no.

 

[NYCSox]

If the Sox win today and all but guarantee another game, do they hold Sale back?

They won’t but I’d consider it at least.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

Gray is a really good prospect so I would not assume the Sox have an easy game here

 

[BaseballJones]

Gray is a really good prospect so I would not assume the Sox have an easy game here

You can never assume any game is easy for these Red Sox.

 

[RobertS975]

In the ultimate chaos scenario of a 4 way tie, the Sox pick home field and the Jays pick home field. The Yankees then pick their opponent. Who do the Yankees choose? There's going to be a bunch of media pressure for them to pick the their key rival regardless of whether that gives them the best chance to win.

Forget the media pressure, the MFY would most likely pick the Red Sox over the Jays simply because of competitive reasons.

 

[PseuFighter]

With today's win, the Red Sox guaranteed at least one more game at Fenway, right? (either the tiebreaker or the wc). I'm assuming they own all of the tiebreakers.

 

[BaseballJones]

Bos: 91-70 (1)
NY: 91-70 (1)
Tor: 90-71 (1)
Sea: 89-71 (2)

The Sox have clinched at least a play-in game to get to the WC.

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

With today's win, the Red Sox guaranteed at least one more game at Fenway, right? (either the tiebreaker or the wc). I'm assuming they own all of the tiebreakers.

No.

Yankees win tomorrow and Sox, Jays and Seattle all lose (or Seattle loses tonight) and the Yankees win the top wild card seed.

 

[PseuFighter]

No.

Yankees win tomorrow and Sox, Jays and Seattle all lose (or Seattle loses tonight) and the Yankees win the top wild card seed.

So they wouldn't host the tiebreaker?

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

So they wouldn't host the tiebreaker?

There would be no tie breaker. Yankees and Sox make wild card outright in that scenario and Yankees host.

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

Yankees would end with 92 wins, Sox 91 and Seattle and Jays with 90 or less.

 

[Salem's Lot]

If the Red Sox & MFY both win tomorrow Red Sox host. 10-9 season series.

 

[BaseballJones]

Pseu: If everyone else wins tomorrow except Boston (with Sea winning tonight), then it's:

Team - wins
NY - 92
Bos - 91
Tor - 91
Sea - 91

In this scenario, Boston would get to pick their situation, and most likely they'd pick to be Team C, which means that Tor and Sea would play, and the winner of that game would host Bos with a WC berth on the line. So in that scenario, there would not be another Fenway game guaranteed.

 

[BaseballJones]

We just need Sale to deal and the bats to hit and win, and then the Sox host the WC game, no matter what. That would be amazing actually.

 

[Archer1979]

Best case scenario is now Sox win, NY loses, Toronto and Seattle win.

 

[Niastri]

Let's say the Sox win tomorrow, and there is a three way tie. In the event of a three way tie between the MFY, Jays and Mariners, when does the wild card game happen?

 

[Jnai]

Let's say the Sox win tomorrow, and there is a three way tie. In the event of a three way tie between the MFY, Jays and Mariners, when does the wild card game happen?

Fenway. The Red Sox would be one game clear of the field in that scenario? The Red Sox would have 92 wins, and the MFY, Jays, and Mariners can only all tie at 91.

 

[barbed wire Bob]

Fenway. The Red Sox would be one game clear of the field in that scenario? The Red Sox would have 92 wins, and the MFY, Jays, and Mariners can only all tie at 91.

The question was “when“ and not “where”. I assume the WC game would be moved to maybe Thursday?

Edit: the Washington Post says this:

Should all four teams finish 91-71, two tiebreaker games will be played Monday to determine the wild-card teams. The teams will get to choose their tiebreaking placement (what MLB is calling the A, B, C and D designation) by virtue of best winning percentage among the games played among the group. Club A would host Club B in one wild-card tiebreaker, and Club C would host Club D in the other, with the winners earning the two wild-card slots and playing Tuesday.

If three of the four remaining teams finish with identical records and the fourth finishes a game back, that fourth team will be eliminated. Two tiebreaker games would be needed.
The remaining teams will pick their A, B or C designation based on their records vs. the other two remaining teams. If two teams have the same record against the other two, the head-to-head season series record is the tiebreaker. For instance, in the case of a three-way tie among the Red Sox, Yankees and Mariners, Boston has a 14-12 record against New York and Seattle, while New York also has a 14-12 record against Boston and Seattle. (Seattle went 5-9 against Boston and New York.) But the Red Sox would get first pick because they went 10-9 against the Yankees.
In this scenario, Club A would host Club B on Monday, with the winner earning a wild-card slot. Club C would then host the loser of the A-B game on Tuesday for the final wild-card berth. The wild-card game itself would be pushed back from Tuesday to Wednesday.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/10/01/mlb-wild-card-tiebreaker-scenarios/

 

[bankshot1]

Let's say the Sox win tomorrow, and there is a three way tie. In the event of a three way tie between the MFY, Jays and Mariners, when does the wild card game happen?

Isn't this the A hosts B at home, that winner then plays C at A's home, that winner plays Sox Wed.at Fenway in the 1-game WC game?

 

[Jnai]

The question was “when“ and not “where”. I assume the WC game would be moved to maybe Thursday?[/URL]

Oops, sorry.

 

[dynomite]

The question was “when“ and not “where”. I assume the WC game would be moved to maybe Thursday?

It's a conundrum. Both ALDS series are scheduled to start Thursday while both NLDS series are scheduled to start Friday.

I couldn't find the answer with a quick google search. I think the options are:

1) Reschedule the AL Wild Card game to Wednesday (opposite the NL Wild Card game at 8pm, given AL is on ESPN and NL is on TBS, or maybe put AL at 5pm?), forcing the AL Wild Card winner to play the following day (Thursday) in Tampa (and theoretically forcing a team to play playoff games 4 days in a row, Monday Tiebreaker1, Tuesday Tiebreaker2, Wednesday Wild Card game @ Fenway, Thursday ALDS Game 1 @ Tampa).

2) Probably the "fairest" thing to do but I have no idea whether this is permitted by their contracts with TBS and FS1 -- swap the Brewers/Braves NLDS series into the Wild Card/Tampa ALDS slot, so that ALDS series wouldn't start until Friday and you'd bump up the NLDS series one day to Thursday. The Braves and Brew Crew (not to mention the Rays) might howl in protest because they've been lining up for that Game 1 for days now, and they'll argue fans have booked travel/hotels/tickets have been printed/etc. And again, God knows whether this is even allowed, as the two networks would have to completely realign multiple days of programming.

 

[PseuFighter]

Pseu: If everyone else wins tomorrow except Boston (with Sea winning tonight), then it's:

Team - wins
NY - 92
Bos - 91
Tor - 91
Sea - 91

In this scenario, Boston would get to pick their situation, and most likely they'd pick to be Team C, which means that Tor and Sea would play, and the winner of that game would host Bos with a WC berth on the line. So in that scenario, there would not be another Fenway game guaranteed.

Thank you

 

[BaseballJones]

Well if there's a three-way tie for the second WC slot, it will require two days to solve it (Mon and Tue). Since the AL WC game is scheduled for Tuesday right now, obviously it would have to be rescheduled, TV contracts be damned.

 

[barbed wire Bob]

It's a conundrum. Both ALDS series are scheduled to start Thursday while both NLDS series are scheduled to start Friday.

I couldn't find the answer with a quick google search. I think the options are:

1) Reschedule the AL Wild Card game to Wednesday (opposite the NL Wild Card game at 8pm, given AL is on ESPN and NL is on TBS, or maybe put AL at 5pm?), forcing the AL Wild Card winner to play the following day (Thursday) in Tampa (and theoretically forcing a team to play playoff games 4 days in a row, Monday Tiebreaker1, Tuesday Tiebreaker2, Wednesday Wild Card game @ Fenway, Thursday ALDS Game 1 @ Tampa).

2) Probably the "fairest" thing to do but I have no idea whether this is permitted by their contracts with TBS and FS1 -- swap the Brewers/Braves NLDS series into the Wild Card/Tampa ALDS slot, so that ALDS series wouldn't start until Friday and you'd bump up the NLDS series one day to Thursday. The Braves and Brew Crew (not to mention the Rays) might howl in protest because they've been lining up for that Game 1 for days now, and they'll argue fans have booked travel/hotels/tickets have been printed/etc. And again, God knows whether this is even allowed, as the two networks would have to completely realign multiple days of programming.

I edited my post. If it’s a three way tie then the AL wild card game is moved to Wednesday.

 

[dynomite]

I edited my post. If it’s a three way tie then the AL wild card game is moved to Wednesday.

Yes sorry, I sort of meant what do you do after you move the Wild Card game to Wednesday. The ALDS Series just begins the next night with no off day? Bleh.

 

[Twilight]

And don't forget travel (potentially). If BOS/TOR/SEA all tie for the 2nd WC, I agree choosing to be team C is probably the way to go. But then if Seattle beats Toronto, wouldn't the Sox have to fly out to Seattle for the second tiebreaker game? And if they won, immediately back to the East coast for the ALDS.

 

[dynomite]

And don't forget travel (potentially). If BOS/TOR/SEA all tie for the 2nd WC, I agree choosing to be team C is probably the way to go. But then if Seattle beats Toronto, wouldn't the Sox have to fly out to Seattle for the second tiebreaker game? And if they won, immediately back to the East coast for the ALDS.

Right, exactly. Is, say, Toronto/MLBPA going to be totally cool with multiple cross-country flights and no off days? Maybe there's no recourse but it just seems silly to give the Braves/Brewers the entire week off until Friday in the NLDS while that's happening.

 

[rajendra82]

What happens in a four way tie? Which is possible now, if Seattle wins tonight.